Sandro Fabian — OGILVIE

Sandro FabianRF Round Rock Express

Age 28 R/R 5'11" / 180 lbs AAA K +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.1 · 2026

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .288 / .399

PA250

HR8

K%19

BB%5

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

58→58

PWR

47→47

SPD

45→45

EYE

43→43

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.2peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$-7M		$-12M	-$5M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	17	ROK	DSL Giants	286	248	50	7	1	2	9	68	18	2	0	.202	.280	.262	.542	.060	.259	24	3	.240	42	-19	+0	+0	-3	+8	-1.4
2016	18	ROK	AZL Giants	174	162	40	9	3	2	4	40	2	3	1	.247	.274	.377	.650	.130	.304	23	2	.274	68	-6	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.3
2017	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	504	485	110	23	0	11	6	120	5	5	4	.227	.244	.342	.586	.115	.277	24	1	.247	47	-30	-1	+0	-5	+14	-2.2
2018	20	A+	San Jose Giants	450	414	69	15	1	9	19	152	9	1	2	.167	.219	.273	.492	.106	.233	34	4	.213	21	-40	-1	+0	-5	+13	-3.3
2019	21	A+	2 teams	228	204	45	5	1	6	14	64	7	3	1	.221	.293	.343	.636	.123	.285	28	6	.272	67	-9	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.4
2021	23	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	314	301	71	10	1	15	7	73	4	0	0	.236	.263	.425	.688	.189	.260	23	2	.285	76	-8	+0	+0	-3	+9	-0.3
2022	24	AA	3 teams	507	469	99	24	2	20	24	116	11	4	3	.211	.266	.399	.665	.188	.235	23	5	.283	75	-14	-0	+0	-5	+14	-0.6
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	539	507	117	24	3	19	18	109	8	6	2	.231	.268	.402	.671	.172	.255	20	3	.289	79	-13	+0	+0	-6	+15	-0.3
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	582	534	124	30	1	17	35	106	9	5	4	.232	.291	.388	.678	.155	.258	18	6	.292	82	-12	-1	-0	-6	+16	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	TEX	250	231	55	12	1	8	14	48	3	3	1	.238	.290	.403	.693	.165	.267	19	6	.306	92	-2	+0	-1	-3	+7	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	29	MLB 20%	TEX	323	297	70	15	1	10	19	64	4	3	1	.236	.291	.394	.685	.158	.269	20	6	.306	92	-3	+0	-3	-3	+9	0.0
2028	30	MLB 33%	TEX	343	315	75	16	1	11	21	70	4	2	1	.238	.294	.400	.694	.162	.269	20	6	.304	91	-4	+0	-4	-4	+10	-0.1
2029	31	MLB 43%	TEX	342	314	73	16	1	10	21	72	4	1	1	.232	.289	.385	.674	.153	.270	21	6	.302	89	-4	-0	-4	-4	+10	-0.3
2030	32	MLB 52%	TEX	332	305	71	15	1	10	20	71	4	0	0	.233	.289	.387	.676	.154	.269	21	6	.297	86	-5	+0	-5	-4	+9	-0.5
2031	33	MLB 64%	TEX	308	282	63	13	1	8	19	68	4	0	0	.223	.282	.362	.644	.138	.267	22	6	.292	81	-6	+0	-6	-3	+9	-0.7
2032	34	MLB 73%	TEX	268	247	55	11	1	7	16	62	3	0	0	.223	.278	.360	.639	.138	.266	23	6	.285	76	-7	+0	-6	-3	+8	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5750	5315	1187	245	20	165	266	1303	99	38	21	.223	.273	.370	.643	.147	.262	23	5	.279	72	-183	-1	-28	-62	+163	-11.3
/ 162G	—			650	601	135	28	2	19	30	147	11	4	2	.225	.274	.373	.647	.148	.263	23	5	.279	72	-21	+0	-3	-7	+18	-1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	17	ROK	DSL Giants	286	242	65	10	2	3	15	47	18	2	0	.269	.356	.364	.720	.095	.312	16	5	.319	102	+1	+0	—	—	+8	0.9
2016	18	ROK	AZL Giants	174	159	54	13	5	2	7	28	2	3	1	.340	.375	.522	.897	.182	.388	16	4	.380	149	+10	+0	—	—	+5	1.5
2017	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	504	480	133	30	0	11	10	88	5	5	4	.277	.298	.408	.707	.131	.317	17	2	.308	94	-3	-1	—	—	+14	1.0
2018	20	A+	San Jose Giants	450	406	81	19	1	10	26	107	9	1	2	.200	.262	.325	.588	.126	.241	24	6	.262	58	-21	-1	—	—	+13	-0.9
2019	21	A+	San Jose Giants	187	167	48	4	1	5	14	33	4	3	1	.287	.357	.413	.770	.126	.328	18	7	.344	121	+4	+0	—	—	+5	1.0
2019	21	ROK	AZL Giants Black	41	32	7	3	0	2	5	13	3	0	0	.219	.375	.500	.875	.281	.278	32	12	.378	148	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2021	23	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	314	296	78	13	1	15	11	57	4	0	0	.264	.298	.466	.764	.203	.279	18	4	.333	113	+5	+0	—	—	+9	1.4
2022	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	109	99	21	6	0	4	7	18	3	0	0	.212	.284	.394	.678	.182	.221	17	6	.303	90	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
2022	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	271	244	63	16	1	12	19	50	6	2	0	.258	.327	.480	.807	.221	.277	18	7	.353	128	+9	+0	—	—	+8	1.7
2022	24	INTL	Leones del Escogido	127	114	31	7	0	2	10	27	2	2	3	.272	.341	.386	.727	.114	.337	21	8	.327	108	+1	-1	—	—	+4	0.4
2023	25	AAA	Round Rock Express	483	444	128	29	3	23	23	73	8	6	2	.288	.333	.523	.855	.234	.297	15	5	.368	140	+22	+0	—	—	+14	3.7
2023	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	56	52	11	2	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	.212	.236	.308	.544	.096	.227	14	4	.237	40	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2024	26	AAA	Round Rock Express	501	448	121	31	2	17	45	76	6	4	4	.270	.345	.462	.807	.192	.291	15	9	.356	131	+17	-1	—	—	+14	3.1
2024	26	INTL	Toros del Este	81	69	18	3	0	5	7	16	3	1	0	.261	.354	.522	.876	.261	.260	20	9	.375	145	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sandro Fabian (OGILVIE)	28	58	47	45	43	.236/.288/.399	.162	.267	8	3	19%	5%	92	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cheslor Cuthbert 2021 · MLB	28	46→54	49→50	45	44	.236/.289/.381	.145	.282	17	4	23%	6%	86	+0.8	.217/.286/.379	.162	.259	20	5	24%	8%	85	+0.7	.183/.263/.348	.164	.208	22	1	24%	8%	64	-0.4
✕Austin Dean 2021 · MLB	27	50→56	51→55	42→45	45	.256/.305/.422	.166	.297	19	6	21%	6%	104	+2.0	.223/.285/.380	.157	.292	17	9	29%	7%	85	+0.7	.211/.270/.358	.147	.269	17	12	28%	6%	69	-0.3
✕Rob Segedin 2017 · MLB	28	48→49	49→50	45	46	.242/.306/.396	.154	.293	17	5	23%	7%	98	+1.6	.231/.283/.377	.146	.286	16	6	25%	6%	83	+0.6	.205/.249/.313	.108	.250	13	0	23%	5%	50	-0.4
✕Drew Locke 2011 · AAA	28	51→59	48→50	47→45	43	.256/.296/.401	.145	.307	15	5	22%	6%	94	+1.3	.239/.283/.374	.135	.291	14	8	22%	5%	82	+0.5	.238/.284/.370	.132	.288	13	7	22%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Dominic Smith 2023 · MLB	28	49→55	48→50	46→40	46	.244/.308/.391	.146	.294	15	5	22%	7%	98	+1.6	.242/.309/.368	.126	.289	13	4	20%	8%	92	+1.2	.243/.312/.368	.125	.289	13	4	20%	8%	91	+0.9
✕José Pirela 2018 · MLB	28	51→58	49→55	48→50	47	.258/.306/.416	.159	.293	16	10	18%	6%	102	+1.9	.256/.303/.415	.159	.302	17	8	21%	6%	102	+1.8	.256/.301/.410	.154	.303	18	5	22%	5%	96	+1.0
✕Matt McBride 2013 · MLB	28	48→51	48→55	44→40	43	.242/.276/.389	.147	.270	15	3	18%	4%	83	+0.6	.245/.279/.404	.159	.269	18	4	16%	4%	89	+0.9	.244/.282/.413	.168	.261	20	3	15%	4%	90	+0.5
✕Nick Stavinoha 2011 · MLB	29	51→56	48→55	49→45	42	.258/.292/.400	.142	.294	16	4	19%	4%	92	+1.2	.238/.281/.409	.171	.276	22	6	22%	5%	91	+1.1	.226/.271/.405	.179	.254	25	4	22%	5%	83	+0.6
✕John Nogowski 2021 · AAA	28	50→53	47→45	41→45	55	.248/.326/.382	.133	.266	15	4	14%	9%	102	+1.9	.217/.302/.322	.105	.254	10	10	18%	9%	78	+0.2	.206/.297/.298	.092	.242	9	11	18%	10%	68	-0.4
✕Pablo Reyes 2022 · MLB	28	45→52	48→50	46→55	48	.227/.287/.371	.144	.265	15	11	21%	7%	83	+0.6	.237/.297/.362	.125	.277	13	17	19%	7%	85	+0.7	.244/.311/.364	.120	.287	14	21	19%	8%	88	+0.4
●Austin Hays 2023 · MLB	28	49→56	52→60	40→45	45	.250/.304/.418	.169	.284	19	5	20%	6%	103	+1.9	.258/.312/.422	.164	.318	17	6	23%	6%	107	+2.2	.261/.315/.423	.162	.331	16	7	25%	6%	104	+1.4
●Andy Ibáñez 2021 · AAA	28	48→55	47→50	39→45	46	.239/.293/.370	.130	.280	15	6	20%	6%	85	+0.7	.249/.301/.399	.150	.283	15	7	18%	6%	96	+1.5	.252/.306/.406	.155	.284	16	5	17%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Jeff Frazier 2011 · MLB	28	49→59	48→50	45	43	.247/.281/.388	.141	.275	16	5	17%	4%	85	+0.7	.215/.258/.342	.127	.242	15	5	18%	5%	63	-0.8	.198/.246/.295	.097	.222	11	1	17%	5%	44	-1.3
✕Jason Rogers 2016 · MLB	28	50→53	52→55	49→45	48	.253/.312/.420	.167	.295	20	5	22%	8%	106	+2.2	.247/.306/.373	.126	.300	14	4	21%	8%	92	+1.2	.243/.302/.349	.107	.295	11	3	21%	7%	80	+0.2
✕Ty Wright 2013 · AAA	28	50→55	45	44→45	43	.248/.289/.374	.126	.288	13	6	19%	5%	85	+0.7	.234/.281/.350	.116	.274	11	8	19%	5%	75	-0.0	.227/.275/.329	.102	.260	10	6	17%	5%	63	-0.6
✕Cedric Hunter 2016 · AAA	28	49→57	49→55	47→50	46	.248/.291/.402	.154	.272	16	10	16%	5%	93	+1.3	.238/.270/.364	.126	.274	14	10	19%	4%	74	-0.1	.249/.291/.395	.146	.272	17	5	15%	6%	87	+0.6
●Omar De La Torre 2008 · AAA	28	51→60	49→50	41→45	40	.257/.290/.408	.151	.313	16	7	24%	4%	94	+1.3	.262/.295/.401	.139	.310	14	5	20%	4%	94	+1.3	.265/.296/.399	.134	.310	14	1	19%	3%	93	+0.9
✕Brett Pill 2013 · MLB	28	48→52	50→55	43→45	43	.246/.281/.401	.155	.262	18	5	15%	4%	89	+0.9	.252/.291/.436	.184	.275	23	5	18%	4%	102	+1.9	.265/.301/.470	.205	.284	27	1	18%	4%	114	+1.7
✕Nick Tanielu 2021 · AAA	28	47→53	48→50	42→40	44	.239/.282/.382	.143	.275	15	5	20%	5%	84	+0.6	.205/.262/.337	.132	.258	14	5	26%	6%	64	-0.8	.187/.250/.316	.130	.236	14	3	27%	6%	52	-0.8
✕Jason Coats 2018 · MLB	28	50	47→55	45	42	.250/.294/.392	.142	.302	14	8	22%	5%	92	+1.2	.219/.258/.377	.158	.275	18	7	27%	4%	72	-0.2	.203/.238/.362	.159	.252	20	6	28%	4%	57	-0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)