Ryan Rua
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | MLBTEX | 269 | .258/.333/.400 | 8 | 9 | 98 | 0.4 | ||
| 2017 | 27 | AAATEX | 188 | .266/.309/.463 | 8 | 3 | 47 | — | .189/.223/.311 | |
| 2017 | 27 | MLBTEX | 144 | .217/.294/.333 | 3 | 2 | 71 | -0.8 | ||
| 2018 | 28 | AAATEX | 83 | .236/.329/.458 | 3 | 4 | 75 | — | .189/.268/.351 | |
| 2018 | 28 | MLBTEX | 147 | .194/.222/.360 | 6 | 3 | 50 | -0.8 | ||
| 2019 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | — | 186 | 162 | 52 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 34 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 321 | 399 | 512 | 911 | 191 | 386 | 18 | 11 | 394 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 95 | 86 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 305 | 384 | 689 | 151 | 288 | 25 | 7 | 310 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 430 | 367 | 92 | 24 | 1 | 29 | 49 | 91 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 251 | 357 | 559 | 916 | 308 | 253 | 21 | 11 | 396 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 71 | 63 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 268 | 365 | 633 | 190 | 200 | 34 | 10 | 286 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 109 | 105 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 295 | 321 | 419 | 740 | 124 | 341 | 17 | 2 | 330 | 103 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 241 | 214 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 313 | 385 | 505 | 890 | 192 | 355 | 17 | 9 | 390 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 288 | 257 | 77 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 55 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 300 | 375 | 475 | 850 | 175 | 349 | 19 | 10 | 378 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 86 | 83 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 221 | 398 | 619 | 205 | 255 | 37 | 3 | 269 | 61 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 165 | 142 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 45 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 197 | 305 | 359 | 664 | 162 | 239 | 27 | 11 | 302 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 269 | 240 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 76 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 258 | 333 | 400 | 733 | 142 | 342 | 28 | 8 | 328 | 98 | -1 | +2 | -0 | -3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 16 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 500 | 562 | 714 | 1.277 | 214 | 545 | 12 | 12 | 557 | 223 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 144 | 129 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 217 | 294 | 333 | 627 | 116 | 338 | 36 | 10 | 284 | 71 | -5 | -0 | -2 | -4 | +3 | -0.8 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 188 | 177 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 266 | 309 | 463 | 772 | 198 | 342 | 29 | 5 | 339 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 147 | 139 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 222 | 360 | 582 | 165 | 259 | 36 | 3 | 251 | 50 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +3 | -0.8 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 83 | 72 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 236 | 329 | 458 | 788 | 222 | 292 | 27 | 8 | 345 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 755 | 696 | 164 | 29 | 2 | 23 | 45 | 231 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 236 | 290 | 382 | 672 | 147 | 317 | 31 | 6 | 298 | 88 | -11 | +2 | -2 | -19 | +16 | -1.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 186 | 170 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 218 | 273 | 335 | 609 | 118 | 286 | 26 | 6 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 95 | 89 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 263 | 326 | 589 | 112 | 285 | 32 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 430 | 387 | 72 | 20 | 1 | 21 | 29 | 123 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 186 | 264 | 406 | 670 | 220 | 204 | 29 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 109 | 105 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 295 | 321 | 419 | 740 | 124 | 341 | 17 | 2 | 321 | 103 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 241 | 220 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 54 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 268 | 326 | 414 | 740 | 145 | 320 | 22 | 6 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 288 | 268 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 68 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 261 | 312 | 384 | 697 | 123 | 329 | 24 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 86 | 83 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 221 | 398 | 619 | 205 | 255 | 37 | 3 | 259 | 61 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 165 | 147 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 56 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 150 | 238 | 259 | 496 | 109 | 204 | 34 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 269 | 242 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 76 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 256 | 326 | 397 | 723 | 140 | 342 | 28 | 7 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +2 | -0 | -3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 16 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 467 | 500 | 667 | 1.167 | 200 | 524 | 19 | 6 | 498 | 223 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 144 | 129 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 217 | 294 | 333 | 627 | 116 | 338 | 36 | 10 | 273 | 71 | -5 | -0 | -2 | -4 | +3 | -0.8 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 188 | 180 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 69 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 189 | 223 | 311 | 535 | 122 | 280 | 37 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 147 | 139 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 222 | 360 | 582 | 165 | 259 | 36 | 3 | 243 | 50 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +3 | -0.8 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 83 | 74 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 189 | 268 | 351 | 620 | 162 | 258 | 33 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 186 | 170 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 218 | 273 | 335 | 609 | 118 | 289 | 26 | 6 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK RAW | AZL Rangers | — | 186 | 162 | 52 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 34 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 321 | 399 | 512 | 911 | 191 | 386 | 18 | 11 | 394 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 596 | 541 | 102 | 24 | 2 | 26 | 38 | 173 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 189 | 261 | 384 | 645 | 196 | 221 | 29 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 596 | 516 | 123 | 26 | 2 | 36 | 63 | 139 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 238 | 338 | 506 | 844 | 267 | 254 | 23 | 11 | 369 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 638 | 593 | 159 | 30 | 3 | 14 | 36 | 140 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 268 | 318 | 400 | 717 | 132 | 329 | 22 | 6 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 638 | 576 | 175 | 33 | 3 | 20 | 53 | 115 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 304 | 369 | 476 | 845 | 172 | 350 | 18 | 8 | 374 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 251 | 230 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 88 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 161 | 228 | 300 | 528 | 139 | 215 | 35 | 6 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 251 | 225 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 77 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 196 | 276 | 373 | 649 | 178 | 245 | 31 | 8 | 291 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 285 | 257 | 69 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 79 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 268 | 336 | 412 | 748 | 144 | 351 | 28 | 7 | 324 | 105 | +2 | +1 | -0 | -3 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 285 | 254 | 69 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 78 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 272 | 346 | 417 | 764 | 146 | 355 | 27 | 8 | 341 | 105 | +2 | +1 | -0 | -3 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 332 | 309 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 121 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 201 | 254 | 320 | 574 | 120 | 300 | 36 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 332 | 306 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 107 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 245 | 302 | 408 | 711 | 163 | 340 | 32 | 7 | 315 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 230 | 213 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 80 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 192 | 239 | 357 | 596 | 164 | 260 | 35 | 4 | 256 | 59 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 230 | 211 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 75 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 209 | 261 | 393 | 654 | 185 | 271 | 33 | 5 | 284 | 59 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 186 | 171 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 216 | 273 | 333 | 607 | 117 | 286 | 26 | 6 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 596 | 538 | 102 | 24 | 2 | 26 | 38 | 173 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 190 | 261 | 387 | 648 | 197 | 219 | 29 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 638 | 590 | 159 | 30 | 3 | 14 | 36 | 140 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 269 | 318 | 402 | 719 | 132 | 328 | 22 | 6 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 251 | 229 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 88 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 162 | 228 | 301 | 529 | 140 | 222 | 35 | 6 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 285 | 257 | 69 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 79 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 268 | 336 | 412 | 748 | 144 | 352 | 28 | 7 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 332 | 307 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 121 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 202 | 254 | 322 | 576 | 121 | 305 | 36 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 230 | 215 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 80 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 191 | 239 | 353 | 592 | 163 | 259 | 35 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 755 | 696 | 164 | 29 | 2 | 23 | 45 | 231 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 236 | 290 | 382 | 672 | 147 | 317 | 31 | 6 | 298 | 78 | -11 | +2 | -2 | -19 | +16 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 599 | 142 | 25 | 2 | 20 | 39 | 199 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 237 | 292 | 386 | 678 | 149 | 319 | 31 | 6 | 298 | 78 | -9 | +2 | -2 | -16 | +14 | -1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2518 | 2313 | 507 | 96 | 12 | 75 | 153 | 730 | 37 | 55 | 11 | 219 | 278 | 368 | 647 | 149 | 284 | 29 | 6 | 283 | 78 | -11 | +2 | -2 | -19 | +16 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 131 | 25 | 3 | 19 | 39 | 188 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 219 | 279 | 367 | 645 | 147 | 285 | 29 | 6 | 283 | 78 | -9 | +2 | -2 | -16 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAARound Rock Express · 83 PAwOBA .340 → .279 (−61)K% 26.5% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.51% | ÷1.055 | ×1.290 | — | — | 32.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.43% | ÷0.978 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 6.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.61% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 3.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷0.962 | ×0.900 | ×1.025 | ×0.992 | 15.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×0.992 | 8.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×0.992 | 1.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.978 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 4.75% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 92, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 111, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .340 → .279; ISO .222 → .174; BABIP .292 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAARound Rock Express · 188 PAwOBA .329 → .238 (−92)K% 29.3% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.26% | ÷1.033 | ×1.290 | — | — | 36.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.32% | ÷1.037 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 3.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.59% | ÷1.039 | ×0.900 | ×0.984 | ×1.003 | 21.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷1.039 | ×0.810 | ×0.984 | ×1.003 | 4.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.046 | ×0.810 | ×0.984 | ×1.003 | 1.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.117 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 4.59% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 109, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .329 → .238; ISO .198 → .130; BABIP .342 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAARound Rock Express · 16 PAwOBA .541 → .498 (−43)K% 12.5% → 16.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.004 | ×1.290 | — | — | 16.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 8.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 50.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.018 | 48.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.079 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.839 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 7.88% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 90, 2B 116, 3B 95, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .541 → .498; ISO .214 → .203; BABIP .545 → .524. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAARound Rock Express · 165 PAwOBA .296 → .225 (−71)K% 27.3% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷1.031 | ×1.290 | — | — | 34.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.91% | ÷1.014 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 7.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.42% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 2.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.53% | ÷1.007 | ×0.900 | ×0.968 | ×1.033 | 15.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.029 | ×0.810 | ×0.968 | ×1.033 | 4.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.968 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.19% | ÷1.184 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 4.21% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .296 → .225; ISO .162 → .108; BABIP .239 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 288 PAwOBA .365 → .306 (−60)K% 19.1% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.10% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.72% | ÷1.055 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.24% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 24.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.44% | ÷0.890 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 6.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷0.921 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.95% | ÷1.322 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.03% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 106, 2B 78, 3B 84, K 97, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .365 → .306; ISO .175 → .129; BABIP .349 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAARound Rock Express · 241 PAwOBA .383 → .322 (−61)K% 17.4% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.43% | ÷1.015 | ×1.290 | — | — | 22.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.71% | ÷1.033 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 6.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.58% | ÷0.984 | ×0.900 | ×0.985 | ×1.048 | 24.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.56% | ÷1.055 | ×0.810 | ×0.985 | ×1.048 | 5.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.953 | ×0.810 | ×0.985 | ×1.048 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 3.70% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 97, 2B 111, 3B 91, K 103, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .383 → .322; ISO .192 → .151; BABIP .355 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AHickory Crawdads · 430 PAwOBA .385 → .285 (−100)K% 21.2% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.16% | ÷0.993 | ×1.340 | — | — | 28.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.93% | ÷1.065 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.79% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 2.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.77% | ÷1.097 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×0.990 | 11.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.947 | ×0.820 | ×0.988 | ×0.990 | 7.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷0.968 | ×0.940 | ×0.988 | ×0.990 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.51% | ÷1.091 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 7.82% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 119, 2B 89, 3B 94, K 99, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .385 → .285; ISO .308 → .231; BABIP .253 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 95 PAwOBA .302 → .253 (−49)K% 25.3% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.26% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.37% | ÷1.162 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷0.933 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 23.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.035 | ×0.840 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 2.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷0.986 | ×0.940 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 1.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.84% | ÷1.114 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.57% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 87, 2B 107, 3B 97, K 97, BB 132 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .302 → .253; ISO .151 → .114; BABIP .288 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).