Alex Binelas — OGILVIE

Alex Binelas1B Reading Fightin Phils

Age 26 L/R 6'2" / 225 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION329 act + 219 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†97

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .308 / .412

PA219

HR9

K%36

BB%10

BABIP323

ISO185

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1.0M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	159	145	33	6	0	7	11	54	2	1	1	228	291	414	705	186	306	34	7	301	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	159	139	43	11	0	9	17	39	2	1	1	309	392	583	975	273	370	25	11	421	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	2 teams	—	500	448	76	16	1	21	42	185	2	8	0	170	244	350	594	181	221	37	8	258	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	2 teams	—	500	427	88	20	2	25	63	147	2	8	0	206	311	438	749	232	240	29	13	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	328	307	52	11	2	12	19	148	1	13	2	169	220	336	556	166	270	45	6	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	328	296	66	18	2	16	30	115	1	13	2	223	297	459	756	236	301	35	9	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	350	314	63	8	3	7	30	105	3	13	0	201	277	312	589	111	273	30	9	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	350	298	75	13	5	8	46	87	3	13	0	252	357	409	767	158	325	25	13	343	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	2 teams	—	310	274	64	9	1	8	30	111	3	2	1	234	316	361	677	128	354	36	10	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	2 teams	—	310	261	69	11	1	10	43	90	3	2	1	264	375	429	804	165	360	29	14	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AA	PHI	—	329	291	72	11	1	17	33	120	3	3	0	247	330	467	798	220	353	36	10	343	121	+8	+1	+0	-6	+9	1.2
YTD	26	AA	PHI	—	329	274	80	13	1	19	50	93	3	3	0	292	407	555	961	263	372	28	15	418	178	+29	+1	+0	-6	+9	3.4
ROS	26	AA	PHI	2%	219	194	44	7	1	9	21	78	2	3	0	226	308	412	720	185	317	36	10	312	97	-1	+1	+0	-4	+6	0.2
ROS	26	MLB	PHI	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						319	25	0	309	95	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	26	AA	PHI	—	333	295	72	11	1	17	33	121	3	3	0	244	326	461	787	217	346	36	10	343	120	+8	+1	+0	-6	+9	1.2
TOT	26	AA	PHI	—	548	485	116	18	2	26	54	198	5	6	0	239	321	445	767	206	340	36	10	331	111	+7	+1	+0	-10	+16	1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	PHI	27%	530	471	106	17	2	20	50	182	4	6	1	225	305	397	702	172	313	34	9	313	98	-1	+1	+0	-9	+15	0.5
2028	28	MLB	PHI	40%	551	489	111	18	2	21	52	185	5	6	1	227	308	401	709	174	311	34	9	312	97	-2	+1	-1	-10	+16	0.4
2029	29	MLB	PHI	45%	561	498	112	18	2	21	53	186	5	6	1	225	306	396	701	171	308	33	9	311	96	-3	+1	-1	-10	+16	0.3
2030	30	MLB	PHI	48%	563	499	111	18	2	20	54	187	5	5	1	222	305	387	691	164	306	33	10	308	94	-4	+1	-2	-10	+16	0.0
2027	27	MLB	PHI	27%	142	127	30	5	1	6	13	49	1	2	0	236	312	433	745	197	316	35	9	309	95	-1	+0	+0	-3	+4	0.1
2028	28	MLB	PHI	40%	220	195	44	7	1	8	21	74	2	2	0	226	307	395	702	169	313	34	10	309	95	-1	+0	-0	-4	+6	0.1
2029	29	MLB	PHI	45%	251	223	50	8	1	9	24	83	2	3	0	224	305	390	695	166	311	33	10	307	93	-2	+1	-1	-4	+7	0.1
2030	30	MLB	PHI	48%	268	239	54	9	1	10	25	89	2	2	0	226	305	397	702	172	308	33	9	304	91	-3	+0	-1	-5	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	885	788	178	29	4	33	83	296	7	9	0	226	305	398	704	173	313	33	9	307	93	-7	+2	-2	-16	+25	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	130	21	3	24	61	217	5	7	0	225	304	396	699	171	311	33	9	307	93	-5	+1	-1	-12	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	4071	3639	772	128	16	146	362	1421	32	63	8	212	289	376	666	164	298	35	9	294	83	-78	+9	-4	-73	+115	-3.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	123	20	3	23	58	227	5	10	1	212	289	375	664	164	299	35	9	294	83	-12	+2	-1	-12	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	132	118	37	11	0	9	12	33	1	0	0	314	382	636	1.017	322	364	25	9	434	191	+14	+0	—	—	+4	1.8
2021	21	ROK	ACL Brewers Gold	—	27	21	6	0	0	0	5	6	1	1	1	286	444	286	730		400	22	19	358	132	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	241	211	35	10	1	11	25	78	1	0	0	166	257	379	637	213	192	32	10	279	72	-8	+0	—	—	+7	-0.1
2022	22	A+	Greenville Drive	—	259	216	53	10	1	14	38	69	1	8	0	245	361	495	856	250	285	27	15	371	142	+12	+2	—	—	+7	2.2
2023	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	328	296	66	18	2	16	30	115	1	13	2	223	297	459	756	236	301	35	9	331	111	+4	+2	—	—	+9	1.6
2024	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	350	298	75	13	5	8	46	87	3	13	0	252	357	409	767	158	325	25	13	343	121	+8	+3	—	—	+10	2.1
2025	25	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	41	35	9	1	0	2	4	17	2	1	1	257	366	457	823	200	438	41	10	369	141	+2	-0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	25	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	269	226	60	10	1	8	39	73	1	1	0	265	376	425	801	159	351	27	14	357	132	+10	+0	—	—	+8	1.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	8	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
	/162	664	31	2	238	315	455	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Eric Karroslast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,197 PA	5	2,197	73	13	255	317	418	-19	-17	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	22	4	255	317	418	-5.7	-5.2	1.2	pk7: 4
#4Chris Carterlast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,807 PA	7	2,807	158	12	219	314	462	-50	-50	3.3	3.3
	/162	664	37	3	219	314	462	-11.7	-11.9	0.8	pk7: 3
#5Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	5	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
	/162	664	17	4	254	332	411	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
#6Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	/162	664	23	2	239	332	416	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	885	33	9	225	302	394	-16	-3	0.5	0.5
	/162	664	24	7	225	302	394	-11.9	-2.2	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Binelas (OGILVIE)	26	45	45	40	60	239/321/445	206	340	26	6	36%	10%	111	+1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Cooper Hummel 2021 · AA	26	41→49	48→50	42→55	47	205/299/340	135	290	16	6	33%	10%	82	+0.5	226/321/379	153	298	14	12	27%	11%	100	+1.7	222/332/370	148	300	12	19	27%	12%	99	+1.1
✕Ryan McMahon 2021 · MLB	26	41→51	51→55	45	47	211/287/365	154	282	19	5	31%	9%	82	+0.5	214/296/362	148	275	17	6	27%	10%	85	+0.7	209/295/353	144	270	17	6	28%	10%	80	+0.3
✕Carlos Cortes 2023 · AAA	26	39→49	49→55	41→40	39	204/256/354	150	270	18	3	31%	6%	66	-0.6	216/286/372	156	268	18	4	26%	9%	83	+0.6	241/312/410	169	272	20	3	19%	9%	102	+1.0
✕Marc Krauss 2014 · MLB	26	42→52	48→50	45	49	214/293/362	149	278	16	7	28%	10%	84	+0.6	209/282/338	129	284	14	5	29%	9%	72	-0.2	192/269/311	119	264	14	2	31%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Jon Kemmer 2017 · AAA	26	45→55	49→55	44→50	39	225/282/379	154	314	17	9	33%	6%	83	+0.6	223/291/394	171	313	21	8	34%	7%	92	+1.2	217/294/401	184	296	24	5	34%	7%	91	+0.8
✕Nick Maton 2023 · MLB	26	43→42	47→50	48→45	47	216/290/357	141	287	13	7	29%	8%	81	+0.4	218/307/369	151	274	18	5	26%	10%	92	+1.2	208/307/357	149	255	19	3	25%	11%	86	+0.4
✕Josh Ockimey 2022 · AAA	26	39→43	48→50	44→30	48	196/290/334	138	294	17	3	36%	11%	76	+0.1	201/283/343	142	299	16	6	35%	10%	75	-0.0	178/268/326	148	256	17	3	35%	11%	62	-0.7
✕Danny Putnam 2009 · MLB	26	44→53	48→50	43→45	46	222/291/364	142	284	15	6	27%	8%	83	+0.6	222/281/364	142	281	16	9	26%	7%	79	+0.3	211/268/349	138	258	17	8	25%	6%	66	-0.5
●Xavier Scruggs 2014 · AA	26	39→47	51→55	44→45	41	201/279/354	153	298	20	8	38%	8%	76	+0.1	216/291/364	148	297	16	6	31%	8%	84	+0.6	218/300/395	177	284	22	4	30%	8%	93	+0.8
✕Travis Ishikawa 2009 · MLB	25	44→49	53→55	46→45	43	230/288/405	175	294	20	6	29%	7%	92	+1.2	246/309/388	142	312	15	6	25%	8%	96	+1.5	241/313/382	142	314	15	1	27%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Danny Hayes 2017 · AAA	26	45→48	47→45	42→30	51	224/304/363	139	292	14	2	27%	10%	88	+0.9	199/269/331	132	290	14	4	34%	9%	66	-0.6	168/242/287	118	250	14	0	37%	9%	41	-2.0
✕Jason Perry 2007 · AAA	26	47→50	49→55	43→45	39	235/289/381	146	317	16	5	30%	6%	87	+0.8	225/298/408	183	296	23	6	31%	7%	98	+1.6	211/296/411	200	270	26	5	31%	8%	96	+0.9
✕Gabe Matthews 2023 · AAA	25	37→45	51→55	47→40	41	194/276/354	160	285	19	5	37%	8%	76	+0.0	217/308/359	142	317	16	5	34%	9%	90	+1.0	215/322/348	133	314	15	2	33%	11%	90	+0.8
✕Jeff Clement 2011 · MLB	27	43→48	53→55	38→30	42	228/280/401	172	278	21	3	26%	6%	89	+0.9	218/263/369	151	276	16	3	27%	6%	72	-0.2	203/250/350	146	254	15	1	26%	6%	59	-0.7
✕Jeff Larish 2010 · MLB	27	45→46	52→55	40→45	48	232/308/401	169	294	20	5	28%	9%	100	+1.7	223/290/393	170	299	20	4	31%	8%	91	+1.1	208/275/379	171	281	20	2	32%	8%	79	+0.2
✕Caleb Gindl 2015 · MLB	26	42→52	46→50	44→50	44	214/270/342	128	274	13	5	27%	7%	68	-0.5	222/268/353	131	276	14	5	24%	6%	70	-0.3	244/288/382	138	296	13	1	22%	6%	83	+0.3
●Mark Hamilton 2010 · AAA	26	48→44	50	42→30	43	240/300/391	152	317	18	3	30%	7%	94	+1.3	246/317/392	146	329	15	3	28%	8%	102	+1.8	241/317/384	143	317	15	0	27%	9%	99	+1.0
✕Daniel Palka 2018 · AAA	26	40→44	52→55	46→50	37	211/256/369	158	290	21	8	35%	6%	70	-0.3	213/270/385	172	283	23	4	32%	7%	80	+0.4	207/274/387	180	263	25	4	31%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Dustin Majewski 2008 · AA	26	43→51	49→50	40	50	217/294/369	152	268	16	4	25%	10%	85	+0.7	234/308/353	119	285	9	6	20%	9%	87	+0.8	242/318/353	111	290	7	5	18%	10%	89	+0.7
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2017 · AAA	26	44	49→50	46→45	38	226/270/371	145	307	18	9	32%	6%	76	+0.0	222/270/355	133	312	15	9	32%	6%	72	-0.2	216/264/343	127	307	14	8	33%	5%	65	-0.3