Ben Paulsen
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | AAACOL | 141 | .256/.340/.424 | 3 | 1 | 55 | — | .200/.262/.323 | |
| 2015 | 27 | MLBCOL | 354 | .277/.329/.462 | 11 | 1 | 107 | -0.2 | ||
| 2016 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 340 | .260/.317/.404 | 6 | 1 | 42 | — | .205/.244/.306 | |
| 2016 | 28 | MLBCOL | 97 | .217/.258/.304 | 1 | 0 | 48 | -1.5 | ||
| 2017 | 29 | AAAWSH | 79 | .230/.278/.432 | 3 | 0 | 49 | — | .195/.215/.377 | |
| 2018 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 541 | 498 | 155 | 29 | 8 | 12 | 33 | 113 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 311 | 358 | 474 | 832 | 163 | 376 | 21 | 6 | 363 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 597 | 547 | 132 | 29 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 132 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 241 | 298 | 413 | 711 | 172 | 282 | 22 | 7 | 312 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 98 | 90 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 327 | 378 | 704 | 111 | 338 | 19 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 478 | 436 | 111 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 37 | 113 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 255 | 316 | 399 | 715 | 144 | 313 | 24 | 8 | 318 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 502 | 459 | 134 | 32 | 10 | 18 | 37 | 128 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 292 | 347 | 523 | 870 | 231 | 366 | 25 | 7 | 376 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 66 | 63 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 317 | 348 | 571 | 920 | 254 | 400 | 29 | 3 | 401 | 135 | +3 | +0 | -0 | -10 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 497 | 435 | 128 | 32 | 6 | 20 | 58 | 119 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 294 | 380 | 533 | 913 | 239 | 362 | 24 | 12 | 398 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 354 | 325 | 90 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 92 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 277 | 329 | 462 | 790 | 185 | 351 | 26 | 6 | 344 | 107 | +3 | -1 | -3 | -9 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 141 | 125 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 256 | 340 | 424 | 764 | 168 | 330 | 24 | 11 | 341 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 97 | 92 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 258 | 304 | 562 | 87 | 297 | 28 | 5 | 254 | 48 | -6 | +0 | -3 | -8 | +2 | -1.5 |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 314 | 288 | 80 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 64 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 333 | 434 | 767 | 156 | 336 | 20 | 8 | 338 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 26 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 115 | 42 | 157 | 59 | 27 | 8 | 88 | -54 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 79 | 74 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 278 | 432 | 711 | 203 | 255 | 20 | 6 | 312 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 517 | 480 | 130 | 28 | 4 | 16 | 30 | 138 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 271 | 318 | 446 | 764 | 175 | 347 | 27 | 6 | 335 | 113 | +8 | -1 | -6 | -27 | +11 | -1.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 541 | 511 | 134 | 24 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 151 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 262 | 294 | 397 | 691 | 135 | 336 | 28 | 4 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 597 | 563 | 121 | 25 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 162 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 215 | 252 | 348 | 600 | 133 | 270 | 27 | 4 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 478 | 450 | 96 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 147 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 213 | 255 | 331 | 586 | 118 | 286 | 31 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 502 | 471 | 106 | 25 | 7 | 13 | 25 | 176 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 267 | 391 | 658 | 166 | 320 | 35 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 66 | 64 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 333 | 562 | 896 | 250 | 400 | 29 | 2 | 368 | 135 | +3 | +0 | -0 | -10 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 497 | 457 | 103 | 24 | 4 | 15 | 36 | 165 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 225 | 285 | 394 | 679 | 168 | 312 | 33 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 354 | 325 | 85 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 92 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 262 | 314 | 428 | 742 | 166 | 351 | 26 | 6 | 326 | 107 | +3 | -1 | -3 | -9 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 141 | 130 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 262 | 323 | 585 | 123 | 283 | 33 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 97 | 93 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 247 | 301 | 548 | 86 | 297 | 28 | 4 | 239 | 48 | -6 | +0 | -3 | -8 | +2 | -1.5 |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 314 | 297 | 61 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 87 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 244 | 306 | 550 | 101 | 275 | 28 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 79 | 77 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 215 | 377 | 592 | 182 | 214 | 24 | 3 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 541 | 511 | 134 | 24 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 151 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 262 | 294 | 397 | 691 | 135 | 346 | 28 | 4 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 541 | 498 | 155 | 29 | 8 | 12 | 33 | 113 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 311 | 358 | 474 | 832 | 163 | 376 | 21 | 6 | 363 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 695 | 656 | 141 | 30 | 4 | 16 | 28 | 189 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 215 | 253 | 346 | 599 | 131 | 275 | 27 | 4 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 695 | 637 | 156 | 37 | 5 | 19 | 47 | 151 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 245 | 302 | 408 | 710 | 163 | 291 | 22 | 7 | 313 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 478 | 450 | 96 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 147 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 213 | 255 | 331 | 586 | 118 | 288 | 31 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA RAW | Tulsa Drillers | — | 478 | 436 | 111 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 37 | 113 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 255 | 316 | 399 | 715 | 144 | 313 | 24 | 8 | 318 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 502 | 471 | 106 | 25 | 7 | 13 | 25 | 176 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 267 | 391 | 658 | 166 | 325 | 35 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA RAW | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 502 | 459 | 134 | 32 | 10 | 18 | 37 | 128 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 292 | 347 | 523 | 870 | 231 | 366 | 25 | 7 | 376 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 563 | 521 | 122 | 28 | 4 | 19 | 37 | 184 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 234 | 289 | 413 | 701 | 179 | 322 | 33 | 7 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 563 | 498 | 148 | 36 | 6 | 24 | 60 | 138 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 297 | 376 | 538 | 914 | 241 | 367 | 25 | 11 | 398 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 495 | 455 | 110 | 24 | 4 | 12 | 33 | 138 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 242 | 297 | 391 | 689 | 149 | 318 | 28 | 7 | 304 | 92 | -5 | -0 | -3 | -9 | +11 | -0.7 |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 495 | 450 | 122 | 27 | 6 | 14 | 38 | 126 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 271 | 332 | 451 | 783 | 180 | 345 | 25 | 8 | 344 | 92 | -5 | -0 | -3 | -9 | +11 | -0.7 |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 437 | 414 | 85 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 121 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 244 | 300 | 543 | 94 | 276 | 28 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 437 | 404 | 101 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 98 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 303 | 381 | 685 | 131 | 312 | 22 | 7 | 305 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 79 | 77 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 215 | 377 | 592 | 182 | 218 | 24 | 3 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA RAW | Rochester Red Wings | — | 79 | 74 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 278 | 432 | 711 | 203 | 255 | 20 | 6 | 312 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 541 | 513 | 134 | 24 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 151 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 261 | 294 | 396 | 690 | 135 | 336 | 28 | 4 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 695 | 657 | 141 | 30 | 4 | 16 | 28 | 189 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 215 | 253 | 346 | 598 | 131 | 270 | 27 | 4 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 478 | 450 | 96 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 147 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 213 | 255 | 331 | 586 | 118 | 286 | 31 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 502 | 470 | 106 | 25 | 7 | 13 | 25 | 176 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 226 | 267 | 391 | 659 | 166 | 320 | 35 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 563 | 518 | 122 | 28 | 4 | 19 | 37 | 184 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 236 | 289 | 415 | 704 | 180 | 322 | 33 | 7 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 495 | 456 | 110 | 24 | 4 | 12 | 33 | 138 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 241 | 297 | 390 | 688 | 149 | 332 | 28 | 7 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 437 | 413 | 85 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 121 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 244 | 300 | 544 | 94 | 280 | 28 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 79 | 77 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 215 | 377 | 592 | 182 | 214 | 24 | 3 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 517 | 480 | 130 | 28 | 4 | 16 | 30 | 138 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 271 | 318 | 446 | 764 | 175 | 347 | 27 | 6 | 335 | 74 | +8 | -1 | -6 | -27 | +11 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 163 | 35 | 5 | 20 | 38 | 174 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 270 | 318 | 444 | 762 | 174 | 346 | 27 | 6 | 335 | 74 | +10 | -1 | -7 | -34 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3790 | 3555 | 809 | 168 | 31 | 90 | 189 | 1125 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 228 | 270 | 368 | 638 | 141 | 304 | 30 | 5 | 278 | 74 | +8 | -1 | -6 | -27 | +11 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 610 | 138 | 29 | 5 | 15 | 32 | 193 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 226 | 268 | 364 | 632 | 138 | 303 | 30 | 5 | 278 | 74 | +10 | -1 | -7 | -34 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAARochester Red Wings · 79 PAwOBA .298 → .240 (−58)K% 20.3% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.25% | ÷0.997 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.06% | ÷1.080 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 3.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.79% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×1.026 | ×0.972 | 12.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.34% | ÷1.085 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×0.972 | 7.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.085 | ×0.970 | ×1.026 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.17% | ÷0.956 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 4.42% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 117, 3B 117, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .298 → .240; ISO .203 → .164; BABIP .255 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 314 PAwOBA .331 → .242 (−89)K% 20.4% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.38% | ÷0.948 | ×1.290 | — | — | 27.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.64% | ÷1.083 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 4.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.21% | ÷1.032 | ×0.900 | ×1.005 | ×0.982 | 19.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.59% | ÷1.050 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×0.982 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.23% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×0.982 | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.68% | ÷1.202 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 1.71% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 106, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .331 → .242; ISO .156 → .103; BABIP .336 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 141 PAwOBA .333 → .250 (−83)K% 24.1% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.11% | ÷0.960 | ×1.290 | — | — | 32.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷1.056 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 7.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.88% | ÷1.010 | ×0.900 | ×1.025 | ×0.992 | 18.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.79% | ÷1.075 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×0.992 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.20% | ÷0.933 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×0.992 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.30% | ÷1.105 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 2.31% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 102, 2B 115, 3B 87, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .333 → .250; ISO .168 → .118; BABIP .330 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 497 PAwOBA .386 → .297 (−90)K% 23.9% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.94% | ÷0.934 | ×1.290 | — | — | 33.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.87% | ÷1.055 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 7.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.15% | ÷1.005 | ×0.900 | ×1.020 | ×1.003 | 20.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.13% | ÷1.028 | ×0.810 | ×1.020 | ×1.003 | 8.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.90% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.020 | ×1.003 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.33% | ÷0.964 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 5.14% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 87, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .386 → .297; ISO .239 → .178; BABIP .362 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 502 PAwOBA .368 → .283 (−85)K% 25.5% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.50% | ÷0.941 | ×1.290 | — | — | 34.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 5.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.36% | ÷1.031 | ×0.900 | ×1.022 | ×1.018 | 20.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.67% | ÷0.967 | ×0.810 | ×1.022 | ×1.018 | 8.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.02% | ÷1.071 | ×0.810 | ×1.022 | ×1.018 | 2.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.44% | ÷1.022 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 4.22% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 88, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .368 → .283; ISO .231 → .169; BABIP .366 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AATulsa Drillers · 478 PAwOBA .309 → .256 (−52)K% 23.6% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.64% | ÷0.939 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.11% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.42% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.84% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 22.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.57% | ÷1.018 | ×0.840 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 4.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.953 | ×0.940 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.02% | ÷0.929 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.46% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 91, K 88, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .309 → .256; ISO .144 → .119; BABIP .313 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AATulsa Drillers · 597 PAwOBA .302 → .262 (−40)K% 22.1% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.11% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.70% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.28% | ÷0.935 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 19.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.99% | ÷0.949 | ×0.840 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 6.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.96% | ÷1.029 | ×0.940 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.58% | ÷1.071 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.46% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 87, 2B 90, 3B 106, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .302 → .262; ISO .172 → .137; BABIP .282 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 A+Modesto Nuts · 541 PAwOBA .356 → .298 (−58)K% 20.9% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.89% | ÷1.001 | ×1.340 | — | — | 27.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.55% | ÷1.072 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 3.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.53% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | ×1.027 | ×0.998 | 25.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷0.990 | ×0.820 | ×1.027 | ×0.998 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.046 | ×0.760 | ×1.027 | ×0.998 | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.923 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 3.10% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 109, K 100, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .356 → .298; ISO .163 → .139; BABIP .376 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .