Nick Maton

3B Charlotte Knights

Age 30 L/R 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	26	AAADET	175	.293/.421/.457	3	3	100	—	.243/.345/.358
2023	26	MLBDET	293	.173/.290/.305	8	1	73	-1.0
2024	27	AAABAL	344	.258/.367/.471	16	1	88	—	.223/.305/.380
2025	28	AAACWS	65	.192/.354/.346	2	0	45	—	.145/.277/.236
2025	28	MLBCWS	63	.167/.286/.315	2	0	73	-0.3
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	30	MLBCWS	12	.235/.324/.396	0	0	103	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	31	MLBCWS	31	.229/.318/.383	1	0	98	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Bat Spd50

Barrel%47

xwOBA20

Avg EV10

Speed10

CompsPaul McAnulty (age 30) · Ben Gamel (age 30) · Scott Moore (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†103

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .324 / .396

PA12

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP292

ISO176

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractPOW 51

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT—

xAVG

100.177

POWER51

Barrel%

477.8

Avg EV

1085.4

Bat Spd

5071.4

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED33

Sprint

1025.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	21	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	466	406	104	26	5	8	43	103	5	5	3	256	335	404	739	148	318	22	9	323	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	72	62	13	3	0	2	9	14	0	1	1	210	310	355	665	145	234	19	12	299	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	384	337	93	14	3	5	41	71	3	11	8	276	360	380	739	104	335	18	11	334	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	131	117	30	7	1	2	10	39	2	2	0	256	326	385	710	128	364	30	8	315	99	-0	+0	-2	+4	+3	0.5
2021	24	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	252	206	41	11	2	5	38	60	4	3	2	199	335	345	679	146	252	24	15	310	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	85	72	18	2	1	5	10	29	1	0	0	250	349	514	863	264	325	34	12	369	130	+3	+0	-1	-4	+2	-0.0
2022	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	250	211	55	20	1	5	34	55	3	3	1	261	371	436	807	175	327	22	14	359	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	17	17	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	294	294	353	647	59	294	0	0	288	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	293	249	43	9	0	8	38	73	3	1	2	173	290	305	595	133	206	25	13	275	73	-9	-1	-8	+2	+6	-1.0
2023	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	175	140	41	12	1	3	27	37	4	3	1	293	421	457	878	164	369	21	15	387	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	344	291	75	12	1	16	45	70	5	1	1	258	367	471	837	213	284	20	13	369	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	63	54	9	2	0	2	9	19	0	0	1	167	286	315	601	148	212	30	14	278	73	-2	-0	+0	-2	+1	-0.3
2025	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	65	52	10	2	0	2	11	23	2	0	0	192	354	346	700	154	296	35	17	328	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	572	492	100	20	2	17	67	160	6	3	3	203	306	356	662	152	259	28	12	298	88	-8	-1	-12	-0	+12	-0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	466	421	89	20	4	7	28	142	5	5	3	211	269	328	597	116	280	30	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	72	65	12	3	0	1	6	17	0	1	1	185	254	277	530	92	212	24	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	384	346	73	10	2	4	32	105	3	11	8	211	283	286	570	75	284	27	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	131	117	30	7	1	2	10	39	2	2	0	256	326	385	710	128	364	30	8	314	99	-0	+0	-2	+4	+3	0.5
2021	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	252	218	39	10	2	4	26	73	4	3	2	179	278	298	576	119	238	29	10	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	85	72	18	2	1	5	10	29	1	0	0	250	349	514	863	264	325	34	12	361	130	+3	+0	-1	-4	+2	-0.0
2022	25	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	250	222	46	16	1	3	23	68	3	3	1	207	290	329	619	122	281	27	9	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	17	17	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	294	294	353	647	59	257	0	0	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	293	250	43	9	0	8	37	73	3	1	2	172	286	304	590	132	206	25	13	277	73	-9	-1	-8	+2	+6	-1.0
2023	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	175	148	36	9	1	2	19	45	4	3	1	243	345	358	703	115	314	26	11	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	344	305	68	10	1	12	31	78	5	1	1	223	305	380	685	157	251	23	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	63	54	9	2	0	2	9	19	0	0	1	167	286	315	601	148	212	30	14	277	73	-2	-0	+0	-2	+1	-0.3
2025	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	65	55	8	2	0	1	8	28	2	0	0	145	277	236	513	91	258	43	12	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	466	421	89	20	4	7	28	142	5	5	3	211	269	328	597	116	294	30	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	466	406	104	26	5	8	43	103	5	5	3	256	335	404	739	148	318	22	9	323	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	456	411	84	12	2	6	38	122	3	12	9	204	277	287	564	83	273	27	8	255	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	456	399	106	17	3	7	50	85	3	12	9	266	352	376	728	110	319	19	11	329	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	383	335	70	18	3	6	36	112	6	5	2	209	297	334	631	125	291	29	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	383	323	71	18	3	7	48	99	6	5	2	220	332	359	691	139	291	26	13	312	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	352	311	69	19	2	8	33	97	4	3	1	222	305	373	678	151	290	28	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	352	300	78	23	2	10	44	84	4	3	1	260	362	450	812	190	324	24	12	358	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	468	398	81	18	1	11	56	118	7	4	3	204	312	337	649	133	255	25	12	291	83	-9	-0	-8	+2	+10	-0.6
2023	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	468	389	84	21	1	11	65	110	7	4	3	216	338	360	698	144	267	24	14	316	83	-9	-0	-8	+2	+10	-0.6
2024	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	344	305	68	10	1	12	31	78	5	1	1	223	305	380	685	157	257	23	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	—	344	291	75	12	1	16	45	70	5	1	1	258	367	471	837	213	284	20	13	369	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	128	109	17	4	0	3	17	47	2	0	1	156	281	275	556	119	237	37	13	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	128	106	19	4	0	4	20	42	2	0	1	179	320	330	651	151	250	33	16	303	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	466	430	89	20	4	7	28	142	5	5	3	207	269	321	590	114	280	30	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	456	412	84	12	2	6	38	122	3	12	9	204	277	286	563	83	273	27	8	255	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	383	338	70	18	3	6	36	112	6	5	2	207	297	331	628	124	281	29	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	352	312	69	19	2	8	33	97	4	3	1	221	305	372	676	151	290	28	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	468	402	81	18	1	11	56	118	7	4	3	201	312	333	646	132	246	25	12	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	344	305	68	10	1	12	31	78	5	1	1	223	305	380	685	157	251	23	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	128	108	17	4	0	3	17	47	2	0	1	157	281	278	559	120	235	37	13	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	344	305	68	10	1	12	31	78	5	1	1	223	305	380	685	157	251	23	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	128	108	17	4	0	3	17	47	2	0	1	157	281	278	559	120	235	37	13	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CWS	10%	200	174	41	8	1	6	21	51	3	2	1	234	323	392	716	159	291	26	10	320	103	+1	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	CWS	10%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	235	324	396	720	161	292	25	8	322	103	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CWS	27%	115	101	22	4	0	3	12	30	1	0	0	228	317	380	698	152	287	26	10	313	98	-0	+0	-4	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	CWS	27%	31	28	6	1	0	1	3	8	0	0	0	229	318	383	702	154	287	26	10	315	98	-0	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	603	520	106	21	2	18	70	168	6	3	3	204	305	356	661	152	260	28	12	299	76	-8	-1	-13	-0	+13	-0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	561	114	23	2	19	75	181	6	3	3	203	303	353	656	150	260	28	12	299	76	-9	-1	-14	-0	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	2836	2499	526	110	14	60	264	778	35	31	20	210	295	338	633	127	276	27	9	280	76	-8	-0	-16	+1	+18	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	120	25	3	14	61	178	8	7	5	209	295	337	632	127	274	27	9	280	76	-6	-0	-13	+0	+14	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 65 PAwOBA .320 → .235 (−85)K% 35.4% → 42.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.38%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	42.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.92%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×0.992	11.77%
HBP% /PA	3.08%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.87%
Singles /BIP	20.69%	÷1.002	×0.930	—	×0.992	19.04%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷0.980	×0.830	—	×0.992	5.79%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.90%	÷1.320	×0.700	—	×0.992	3.63%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .320 → .235; ISO .154 → .089; BABIP .296 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 344 PAwOBA .362 → .298 (−64)K% 20.3% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.35%	÷1.070	×1.200	—	—	22.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.79%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.97%
HBP% /PA	1.45%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.37%
Singles /BIP	20.81%	÷0.962	×0.930	×0.959	×1.003	19.36%
Doubles /BIP	5.43%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.959	×1.003	4.31%
Triples /BIP	0.45%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.959	×1.003	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	7.24%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×1.003	5.10%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .362 → .298; ISO .213 → .162; BABIP .284 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 175 PAwOBA .384 → .316 (−68)K% 21.1% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.14%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	25.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.43%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×1.018	10.78%
HBP% /PA	2.29%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	2.19%
Singles /BIP	24.27%	÷0.965	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	22.63%
Doubles /BIP	11.65%	÷1.156	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	8.09%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×1.018	0.79%
Home runs /BIP	2.91%	÷0.901	×0.700	—	×1.018	2.30%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .384 → .316; ISO .164 → .128; BABIP .369 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 250 PAwOBA .353 → .280 (−73)K% 22.0% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.00%	÷0.970	×1.200	—	—	27.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.60%	÷1.067	×0.690	—	×1.033	9.09%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.17%
Singles /BIP	18.59%	÷1.007	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	16.85%
Doubles /BIP	12.82%	÷1.018	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	10.25%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	3.21%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×1.033	2.23%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .353 → .280; ISO .175 → .136; BABIP .327 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AClearwater Threshers · 17 PAwOBA .280 → .244 (−37)K% 0.0% → 0.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	0.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.970	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.970	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.970	21.00%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.970	4.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×0.970	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.970	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .280 → .244; ISO .059 → .047; BABIP .294 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 252 PAwOBA .305 → .258 (−46)K% 23.8% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.81%	÷0.992	×1.200	—	—	28.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.08%	÷1.061	×0.690	—	×1.048	10.27%
HBP% /PA	1.59%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.56%
Singles /BIP	15.75%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.017	×1.048	15.37%
Doubles /BIP	7.53%	÷0.952	×0.830	×1.017	×1.048	7.00%
Triples /BIP	1.37%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.017	×1.048	1.17%
Home runs /BIP	3.42%	÷0.957	×0.700	—	×1.048	2.62%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .305 → .258; ISO .146 → .125; BABIP .252 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Clearwater Threshers · 384 PAwOBA .327 → .257 (−70)K% 18.5% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.49%	÷0.960	×1.420	—	—	27.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.68%	÷0.964	×0.750	—	×1.012	8.41%
HBP% /PA	0.78%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	0.74%
Singles /BIP	26.69%	÷1.014	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	23.29%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷1.242	×0.960	×0.950	×1.012	3.91%
Triples /BIP	1.13%	÷0.973	×0.810	×0.950	×1.012	0.90%
Home runs /BIP	1.88%	÷0.949	×0.880	—	×1.012	1.76%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 148, 3B 95, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .327 → .257; ISO .104 → .080; BABIP .335 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAReading Fightin Phils · 72 PAwOBA .290 → .242 (−48)K% 19.4% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.44%	÷0.995	×1.220	—	—	23.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.042	8.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.023	×0.970	×0.950	×1.042	15.64%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷0.980	×0.860	×0.950	×1.042	5.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.950	×0.950	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷1.182	×0.780	—	×1.042	2.86%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 105, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .290 → .242; ISO .145 → .111; BABIP .234 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	2.3	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
/162	664	9	8	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	0.9	616	18	3	205	303	358	+2	-8	0.9	0.9
/162	664	20	3	+1.6	-8.9	1.0	pk7: 1
#3Doug Strange'89-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,067 PA	3.1	2,067	31	14	225*	286*	340*	+5	-0	-1.5	0.0
/162	664	10	4	+1.6	-0.1	-0.5	pk7: 1
#4Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#5Hector Cruz'73-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,806 PA	2.7	1,806	39	7	220*	298*	381*	-7	-19	-1.2	-0.5
/162	664	14	3	-2.6	-7.1	-0.4	pk7: 0
#6Vic Harris'72-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	13	36	215*	286*	325*	+4	-7	-1.9	-1.1
/162	664	5	13	+1.5	-2.7	-0.7	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Maton (OGILVIE)	30	—	51	33	55	231/321/389	157	291	4	1	26%	10%	103	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Paul McAnulty 2011 · MLB	30	42→51	52→55	38→40	47	223/286/386	163	260	21	2	23%	8%	88	+0.5	224/285/390	166	268	20	4	24%	7%	89	+0.5	215/280/381	166	257	20	3	25%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Ben Gamel 2022 · MLB	30	51→61	47→50	38→50	53	245/334/390	145	326	14	6	27%	11%	107	+1.8	236/322/377	141	305	14	7	25%	11%	99	+1.3	230/321/364	134	298	13	6	25%	11%	96	+0.6
✕Scott Moore 2014 · MLB	30	45→50	48→55	38→50	44	225/289/369	145	288	15	3	27%	7%	86	+0.3	193/261/313	120	254	13	5	28%	6%	63	-1.4	161/235/264	103	208	12	3	28%	6%	40	-1.5
✕Aaron Guiel 2004 · MLB	31	51→53	52→60	35→45	49	257/326/430	173	289	18	5	18%	7%	114	+2.3	228/306/406	178	261	21	6	21%	8%	101	+1.4	211/296/392	181	239	23	4	23%	8%	94	+0.7
●Matt Joyce 2015 · MLB	30	48→52	50→60	40→50	57	242/333/400	159	284	17	6	21%	12%	109	+2.0	231/332/406	175	274	20	4	22%	12%	110	+2.1	234/345/446	212	261	26	3	21%	14%	124	+1.9
●Jason Kubel 2012 · MLB	30	52→56	54→60	41→40	50	265/326/444	179	303	21	2	20%	8%	116	+2.5	239/305/412	173	304	21	3	27%	9%	101	+1.4	228/298/398	170	296	21	1	29%	9%	97	+0.6
✕Todd Hollandsworth 2004 · MLB	31	54→55	50→55	43→50	48	266/320/440	174	316	16	9	21%	7%	113	+2.3	258/311/423	165	303	17	7	20%	7%	105	+1.7	257/304/423	166	298	17	4	20%	6%	104	+0.7
✕Brian Buscher 2010 · MLB	29	51→57	44→45	38→45	53	250/323/363	114	287	12	3	18%	9%	97	+1.1	231/297/354	123	255	12	6	14%	8%	84	+0.2	226/275/353	127	226	11	0	6%	6%	77	-0.1
✕Todd Sears 2006 · MLB	30	52→55	47→50	43→45	44	257/310/390	134	329	15	3	26%	7%	98	+1.2	237/294/353	116	301	12	7	24%	7%	83	+0.1	222/280/313	91	278	9	7	22%	6%	66	-0.3
●Jesse Winker 2024 · MLB	30	48→58	48→55	37→45	62	239/348/377	138	280	16	2	20%	13%	109	+2.0	246/343/392	146	302	15	12	22%	12%	111	+2.1	257/361/409	152	310	17	17	21%	12%	122	+2.5
✕Conor Gillaspie 2017 · MLB	30	51→58	47→50	42→40	46	254/294/399	145	284	13	4	16%	5%	94	+0.9	233/278/362	129	258	13	9	15%	5%	79	-0.2	210/246/300	89	231	7	8	12%	4%	50	-0.8
✕Eric Munson 2008 · MLB	30	44→43	51→60	43→40	50	227/291/386	159	251	19	3	19%	8%	91	+0.6	207/282/341	134	249	15	3	22%	9%	77	-0.3	183/267/307	124	222	15	0	24%	9%	63	-0.5
✕Mark Teahen 2012 · MLB	30	49→59	44→55	41→50	49	241/307/358	117	301	11	6	23%	8%	89	+0.5	217/273/304	87	296	6	8	27%	7%	64	-1.3	210/261/280	70	292	3	7	27%	6%	51	-1.2
✕Tim Beckham 2021 · MLB	31	46→55	55	39→50	43	238/296/424	186	300	22	5	28%	7%	101	+1.4	249/299/400	151	324	19	7	28%	6%	96	+1.0	255/299/384	129	337	17	4	28%	5%	89	+0.2
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2022 · MLB	30	42→41	54→50	42→30	53	222/307/398	176	265	22	3	25%	11%	99	+1.3	218/305/357	139	291	16	4	29%	11%	89	+0.5	205/298/323	118	281	14	2	30%	11%	78	-0.2
✕J.C. Linares 2015 · AAA	30	49→53	48→50	39→40	45	244/306/392	147	294	16	3	23%	6%	97	+1.1	236/303/376	140	282	14	7	21%	7%	93	+0.8	238/309/385	146	271	15	5	18%	8%	94	+0.3
✕Austin Dean 2022 · MLB	28	46→56	51→55	41→45	45	233/297/403	170	304	19	7	29%	8%	97	+1.1	225/286/370	145	289	16	11	27%	6%	84	+0.2	218/275/362	143	275	16	12	26%	6%	75	-0.4
✕Jarrett Parker 2019 · MLB	30	46→51	50→55	46→50	45	230/299/389	159	313	18	7	31%	8%	94	+0.9	211/298/377	166	313	21	6	36%	11%	91	+0.7	178/279/345	167	259	23	2	38%	12%	76	-0.3
✕George Kottaras 2012 · MLB	29	48→54	51→55	43→30	53	241/318/414	173	288	18	4	23%	10%	106	+1.8	226/329/416	190	287	24	5	28%	13%	112	+2.2	190/315/383	193	236	27	1	31%	15%	100	+0.3
✕Brennan Boesch 2014 · MLB	29	50→56	50→55	46→50	46	252/303/407	154	290	17	7	20%	6%	99	+1.3	236/274/381	145	294	17	9	25%	5%	82	+0.0	230/265/367	137	287	16	9	25%	4%	74	-0.3

Nick Maton

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps