Trevor Larnach

LF Minnesota Twins

Age 30 L/R 6'3" / 223 lbs MLB Svc 5.081 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	27	MLBMIN	400	.259/.339/.434	15	4	117	1.3
2025	28	MLBMIN	567	.250/.326/.404	17	4	104	0.2
2026	29	MLBMIN	433	.269/.352/.436	13	2	123	1.6
2027PROJ	30	MLBMIN	374	.260/.340/.427	12	3	116	1.1
2028PROJ	31	MLBMIN	487	.255/.334/.415	15	1	111	0.8
2029PROJ	32	MLBMIN	474	.248/.327/.399	14	0	105	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.081First FA2028

2027Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA68

Avg EV66

Barrel%50

Bat Spd43

Speed33

Form.257/.335/.439 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .260/.337/.426

CompsMatt Joyce (age 30) · Jason Kubel (age 30) · Colin Moran (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 95116vR 123

AVG/OBP/SLG.260 / .340 / .427

PA374

HR12

K%20

BB%10

BABIP300

ISO169

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

540.254

POWER50

Barrel%

508.1

Avg EV

6690.2

Bat Spd

4370.6

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

3326.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%22%▼▼25% over 40 PA (60d) · proj 20%

BB%10%·10% over 40 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.182▲.257 over 35 AB (60d) · proj .166

BABIP.301·.348 over 23 BIP (60d) · proj .300

SLASH.257/.335/.439·proj .260/.337/.426

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1019 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

141

878

—

wRC+

117

▶▶R

wOBA

271

341

▶▶R

ISO

078

171

▶▶R

BABIP

315

300

◀L

26.2%

20.7%

▶▶R

BB%

6.4%

10.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.081 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	102	91	27	8	1	3	11	17	0	1	0	297	373	505	878	209	338	17	11	386	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	75	61	19	5	0	2	10	11	2	2	0	311	425	492	916	180	340	15	13	399	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	181	156	46	4	0	7	22	50	2	0	0	295	389	455	844	160	390	28	12	377	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	361	320	101	26	1	6	35	74	2	4	1	316	387	459	846	144	389	20	10	374	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	301	260	58	12	0	7	31	104	8	1	0	223	324	350	674	127	338	35	10	308	95	-2	+0	-1	-4	+7	-0.0
2021	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	62	51	9	1	0	3	6	21	5	0	0	176	323	373	695	196	222	34	10	321	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	180	160	37	13	0	5	18	57	0	0	0	231	309	406	715	175	320	32	10	316	97	-1	+0	+1	-2	+4	0.2
2022	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	41	36	8	0	0	0	4	11	0	0	0	222	300	222	522		308	27	10	245	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	212	183	39	7	3	8	27	72	0	1	1	213	314	415	730	202	295	34	13	322	102	+0	-0	-4	-6	+5	-0.5
2023	26	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	323	262	71	14	1	15	50	90	3	2	2	271	394	504	897	233	339	28	15	387	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	400	355	92	17	0	15	40	89	3	4	1	259	339	434	773	175	304	22	10	344	117	+8	+0	-0	-4	+9	1.3
2025	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	567	503	126	24	1	17	53	122	4	4	4	250	326	404	730	153	295	22	9	324	104	+2	-1	-6	-6	+12	0.2
2026	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	433	383	103	23	1	13	45	79	4	2	2	269	352	436	788	167	309	18	10	352	123	+12	-0	-0	-5	+9	1.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2093	1844	455	96	5	65	214	523	19	12	8	247	331	410	741	163	307	25	10	330	110	+24	-1	-10	-27	+45	3.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	21	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	102	95	23	6	1	2	7	24	0	1	0	242	294	389	684	147	309	24	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	75	65	16	4	0	2	6	16	2	2	0	246	329	400	729	154	272	21	8	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	181	163	42	3	0	6	15	59	2	0	0	258	328	387	714	129	361	33	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	361	332	85	24	1	4	23	112	2	4	1	256	308	370	679	114	361	31	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	301	260	58	12	0	7	31	104	8	1	0	223	324	350	674	127	338	35	10	308	95	-2	+0	-1	-4	+7	-0.0
2021	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	62	53	7	1	0	2	4	26	5	0	0	132	258	264	522	132	199	42	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	180	161	37	13	0	5	17	57	0	0	0	230	303	404	707	174	320	32	9	312	97	-1	+0	+1	-2	+4	0.2
2022	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	41	37	8	0	0	0	3	13	0	0	0	216	275	216	491		295	32	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	212	184	39	7	3	8	26	72	0	1	1	212	310	413	723	201	295	34	12	319	102	+0	-0	-4	-6	+5	-0.5
2023	26	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	323	280	62	9	1	11	32	111	3	2	2	221	308	379	687	157	290	34	10	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	400	356	92	17	0	15	39	89	3	4	1	258	337	433	769	174	304	22	10	341	117	+8	+0	-0	-4	+9	1.3
2025	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	567	506	126	24	1	17	51	122	4	4	4	249	323	401	724	152	295	22	9	321	104	+2	-1	-6	-6	+12	0.2
2026	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	433	384	103	23	1	13	44	79	4	2	2	268	350	435	784	167	309	18	10	350	123	+12	-0	-0	-5	+9	1.6
2018	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	177	159	39	10	1	4	14	39	2	3	0	245	314	396	711	151	297	22	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	177	152	46	13	1	5	21	28	2	3	0	303	394	500	894	197	339	16	12	391	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	542	495	126	27	1	9	38	171	4	4	1	255	313	368	681	113	366	32	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	542	476	147	30	1	13	57	124	4	4	1	309	387	458	845	149	390	23	11	375	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	363	313	65	13	0	9	35	130	13	1	0	208	313	335	648	128	318	36	10	296	87	-6	+0	-1	-4	+8	-0.3
2021	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	363	311	67	13	0	10	37	125	13	1	0	215	324	354	678	138	320	34	10	310	87	-6	+0	-1	-4	+8	-0.3
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	221	198	45	13	0	5	20	70	0	0	0	227	298	369	667	141	317	32	9	294	85	-4	+0	+1	-2	+5	-0.0
2022	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	221	196	45	13	0	5	22	68	0	0	0	230	307	372	680	143	317	31	10	303	85	-4	+0	+1	-2	+5	-0.0
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	535	464	101	16	4	19	58	183	3	3	3	218	309	392	701	175	301	34	11	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	535	445	110	21	4	23	77	162	3	3	3	247	362	467	829	220	322	30	14	361	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	400	356	92	17	0	15	39	89	3	4	1	258	337	433	769	174	303	22	10	341	117	+8	+0	-0	-4	+9	1.3
2024	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	400	355	92	17	0	15	40	89	3	4	1	259	339	434	773	175	304	22	10	344	117	+8	+0	-0	-4	+9	1.3
2025	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	567	506	126	24	1	17	51	122	4	4	4	249	323	401	724	152	292	22	9	321	104	+2	-1	-6	-6	+12	0.2
2025	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	567	503	126	24	1	17	53	122	4	4	4	250	326	404	730	153	295	22	9	324	104	+2	-1	-6	-6	+12	0.2
2026	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	433	384	103	23	1	13	44	79	4	2	2	268	350	435	784	167	308	18	10	350	123	+12	-0	-0	-5	+9	1.6
2026	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	433	383	103	23	1	13	45	79	4	2	2	269	352	436	788	167	309	18	10	352	123	+12	-0	-0	-5	+9	1.6
2018	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	177	159	39	10	1	4	14	39	2	3	0	245	314	396	711	151	293	22	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	542	495	126	27	1	9	38	171	4	4	1	255	313	368	681	113	361	32	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	363	312	65	13	0	9	35	130	13	1	0	208	313	337	650	128	314	36	10	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	221	199	45	13	0	5	20	70	0	0	0	226	298	367	665	141	315	32	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	535	469	101	16	4	19	58	183	3	3	3	215	309	388	697	173	292	34	11	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	400	355	92	17	0	15	39	89	3	4	1	259	337	434	770	175	304	22	10	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	567	507	126	24	1	17	51	122	4	4	4	249	323	400	723	152	295	22	9	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	433	382	103	23	1	13	44	79	4	2	2	270	350	437	787	168	309	18	10	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	400	355	92	17	0	15	39	89	3	4	1	259	337	434	770	175	304	22	10	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	567	507	126	24	1	17	51	122	4	4	4	249	323	400	723	152	295	22	9	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	433	382	103	23	1	13	44	79	4	2	2	270	350	437	787	168	309	18	10	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	462	410	105	22	1	14	45	91	4	4	1	260	340	426	766	166	300	20	10	340	116	+9	+0	-1	-5	+10	1.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	374	331	86	18	1	12	37	74	3	3	1	260	340	427	767	167	300	20	10	340	116	+7	+0	-1	-4	+8	1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	487	433	110	23	1	15	47	98	4	1	1	255	334	414	748	159	296	20	10	333	111	+7	-0	-4	-5	+11	0.8
2029	32	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	474	422	105	22	1	13	45	98	4	0	1	248	326	399	725	151	290	21	9	324	105	+3	-0	-5	-5	+10	0.3
2030	33	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	383	341	81	16	0	10	36	81	3	0	0	239	317	379	696	140	282	21	9	312	97	-1	+0	-5	-4	+8	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	487	433	110	23	1	15	47	98	4	1	1	255	334	415	749	160	296	20	10	333	111	+7	-0	-4	-5	+11	0.8
2029	32	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	474	422	106	22	1	14	45	98	4	0	1	248	327	399	726	151	290	21	9	324	105	+3	-0	-5	-5	+10	0.3
2030	33	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	383	341	81	16	0	10	36	81	3	0	0	239	317	380	697	141	282	21	9	312	97	-1	+0	-5	-4	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3437	3040	752	157	7	104	342	800	30	13	10	247	329	406	736	159	301	23	10	328	103	+33	-1	-24	-41	+74	4.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	143	30	1	20	65	151	6	2	2	249	332	409	740	160	301	23	10	328	103	+6	-0	-5	-8	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4956	4402	1079	222	11	141	464	1234	47	25	14	245	324	397	720	152	306	25	9	320	103	+40	-1	-25	-45	+83	5.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	140	29	1	18	61	162	6	3	2	243	321	390	711	147	303	25	9	320	103	+7	-0	-4	-8	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 323 PAwOBA .386 → .301 (−84)K% 27.9% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.86%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	34.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.17%	÷1.067	×0.690	—	×1.018	9.99%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.89%
Singles /BIP	23.84%	÷0.964	×0.930	×0.981	×1.018	22.96%
Doubles /BIP	8.14%	÷1.341	×0.830	×0.981	×1.018	5.03%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷0.977	×0.970	×0.981	×1.018	0.58%
Home runs /BIP	8.72%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×1.018	6.16%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 168, 3B 95, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .386 → .301; ISO .233 → .167; BABIP .339 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 41 PAwOBA .245 → .216 (−29)K% 26.8% → 32.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.83%	÷0.981	×1.200	—	—	32.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.76%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×1.033	6.87%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	32.00%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.033	30.74%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.079	×0.830	—	×1.033	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.881	×0.700	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .245 → .216; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .308 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 62 PAwOBA .313 → .239 (−74)K% 33.9% → 41.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.87%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	41.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.68%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×1.048	6.84%
HBP% /PA	8.06%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	7.94%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.035	×0.930	—	×1.048	15.69%
Doubles /BIP	3.33%	÷0.996	×0.830	—	×1.048	2.91%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.00%	÷1.121	×0.700	—	×1.048	6.54%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .313 → .239; ISO .196 → .120; BABIP .222 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 361 PAwOBA .364 → .298 (−66)K% 20.5% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.50%	÷0.939	×1.420	—	—	30.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.59%	÷1.019	×0.750	—	×1.012	6.39%
HBP% /PA	0.55%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	0.52%
Singles /BIP	27.64%	÷0.975	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	25.08%
Doubles /BIP	10.57%	÷0.908	×0.960	×0.950	×1.012	10.75%
Triples /BIP	0.41%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.012	0.35%
Home runs /BIP	2.44%	÷1.362	×0.880	—	×1.012	1.60%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 172, 1B 95, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .364 → .298; ISO .144 → .114; BABIP .389 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 181 PAwOBA .369 → .312 (−57)K% 27.6% → 32.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.62%	÷1.027	×1.220	—	—	32.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.15%	÷1.028	×0.680	—	×1.042	8.38%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.97%
Singles /BIP	33.02%	÷0.970	×0.920	×0.966	×1.042	31.52%
Doubles /BIP	3.77%	÷1.160	×0.910	×0.966	×1.042	2.98%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.966	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.60%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	5.50%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 105, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .369 → .312; ISO .160 → .131; BABIP .390 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 102 PAwOBA .376 → .303 (−73)K% 16.7% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷0.980	×1.360	—	—	23.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.78%	÷1.041	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.26%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.27%	÷0.984	×0.920	×1.025	×1.015	19.72%
Doubles /BIP	10.81%	÷1.031	×0.830	×1.025	×1.015	9.06%
Triples /BIP	1.35%	÷0.993	×0.910	×1.025	×1.015	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	4.05%	÷1.163	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.83%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 99, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .376 → .303; ISO .209 → .157; BABIP .338 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKElizabethton Twins · 75 PAwOBA .399 → .308 (−91)K% 14.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.67%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	20.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.33%	÷1.000	×0.640	—	×0.985	8.41%
HBP% /PA	2.67%	—	×0.740	—	×0.985	1.94%
Singles /BIP	24.00%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.010	×0.985	20.06%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.740	×1.010	×0.985	7.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.740	×1.010	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.985	3.15%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .399 → .308; ISO .180 → .142; BABIP .340 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Matt Joycelast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,318 PA	6.5	4,318	146	34	242	343	425	-46	-44	11.7	11.9
/162	664	22	5	-7.1	-6.7	1.8	pk7: 12
#2Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	5.7	3,811	115	16	250	328	410	-41	-27	9.5	9.0
/162	664	20	3	-7.1	-4.7	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Scott Spiezio'96-'07 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,412 PA	6.6	4,412	119	33	245*	318*	406*	-34	-15	7.5	7.8
/162	664	18	5	-5.2	-2.3	1.1	pk7: 8
#4Ron Swoboda'65-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	73	20	243*	329*	417*	-30	-1	6.8	7.3
/162	664	17	5	-6.7	-0.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#5Stephen Piscottylast yr '22 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,802 PA	4.2	2,802	93	23	255	324	430	-30	-35	5.0	5.3
/162	664	22	5	-7.1	-8.4	1.2	pk7: 6
#6Robert Fick'98-'07 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,658 PA	4.0	2,658	69	6	249*	318*	393*	-24	-10	3.9	5.0
/162	664	17	1	-6.0	-2.4	1.0	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Trevor Larnach (OGILVIE)	30	50	50	40	55	258/337/422	164	300	12	3	20%	10%	116	+1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Matt Joyce 2015 · MLB	30	48→52	50→60	40→50	57	242/333/400	159	284	17	6	21%	12%	109	+2.0	231/332/406	175	274	20	4	22%	12%	110	+2.1	234/345/446	212	261	26	3	21%	14%	124	+1.9
●Jason Kubel 2012 · MLB	30	52→56	54→60	41→40	50	265/326/444	179	303	21	2	20%	8%	116	+2.5	239/305/412	173	304	21	3	27%	9%	101	+1.4	228/298/398	170	296	21	1	29%	9%	97	+0.6
✕Colin Moran 2022 · MLB	29	50→57	52→55	45→30	49	255/322/420	165	311	21	3	24%	9%	109	+2.0	224/293/355	131	287	16	4	26%	8%	84	+0.1	202/269/309	107	262	13	0	27%	8%	63	-0.6
✕Michael Saunders 2017 · MLB	30	49→54	55	41→55	51	250/329/447	197	317	22	4	27%	10%	118	+2.7	214/274/355	141	269	15	5	25%	7%	76	-0.4	186/236/294	108	233	10	3	24%	6%	46	-1.2
✕Ricky Ledee 2004 · MLB	30	46→47	54→60	42→50	55	239/322/430	191	272	21	4	21%	11%	112	+2.2	245/320/419	174	287	19	6	21%	9%	108	+1.9	230/296/372	142	279	16	3	23%	8%	89	+0.2
✕Ji Man Choi 2021 · MLB	30	49→50	54→55	43→45	57	249/343/436	187	298	20	4	23%	12%	121	+2.9	231/330/404	173	304	19	3	28%	12%	109	+2.0	218/322/389	171	288	20	0	29%	13%	104	+0.8
✕Ben Gamel 2022 · MLB	30	51→61	47→50	38→50	53	245/334/390	145	326	14	6	27%	11%	107	+1.8	236/322/377	141	305	14	7	25%	11%	99	+1.3	230/321/364	134	298	13	6	25%	11%	96	+0.6
✕Alex Dickerson 2020 · MLB	30	52→56	52→60	47→45	47	262/327/438	176	309	18	5	21%	7%	116	+2.5	250/314/444	194	290	24	4	22%	7%	112	+2.2	225/288/408	182	261	23	1	23%	7%	94	+0.4
✕Aaron Guiel 2004 · MLB	31	51→53	52→60	35→45	49	257/326/430	173	289	18	5	18%	7%	114	+2.3	228/306/406	178	261	21	6	21%	8%	101	+1.4	211/296/392	181	239	23	4	23%	8%	94	+0.7
✕Terrmel Sledge 2007 · MLB	30	48→52	54→55	47→45	52	250/319/433	183	283	22	7	21%	9%	111	+2.1	236/313/398	162	287	19	8	24%	9%	101	+1.4	217/307/363	145	265	18	4	24%	10%	91	+0.3
✕Ryan Church 2009 · MLB	30	52→54	52→55	43→45	50	262/332/437	175	313	19	6	22%	9%	117	+2.6	246/306/382	136	297	12	7	20%	7%	95	+0.9	238/296/359	121	287	8	7	19%	7%	86	+0.1
●Kole Calhoun 2018 · MLB	30	51→58	50→60	46→50	53	255/331/412	157	296	18	4	20%	9%	111	+2.1	230/311/423	193	265	25	5	23%	10%	106	+1.8	227/315/456	229	252	31	3	24%	10%	117	+1.5
✕Todd Hollandsworth 2004 · MLB	31	54→55	50→55	43→50	48	266/320/440	174	316	16	9	21%	7%	113	+2.3	258/311/423	165	303	17	7	20%	7%	105	+1.7	257/304/423	166	298	17	4	20%	6%	104	+0.7
✕Armando Rios 2002 · MLB	30	49	56→55	47→45	52	254/319/454	200	282	22	7	19%	9%	116	+2.5	244/300/372	128	280	13	6	17%	7%	90	+0.6	243/290/316	73	283	5	2	15%	6%	73	-0.2
✕Yonder Alonso 2018 · MLB	31	51→59	53→55	43→45	56	263/339/438	175	293	21	4	18%	10%	120	+2.8	240/315/410	170	276	22	3	21%	10%	105	+1.7	228/305/386	158	261	21	0	21%	9%	97	+0.9
✕Marwin Gonzalez 2019 · MLB	30	51→57	53→55	44→50	49	259/324/436	176	303	20	7	22%	8%	114	+2.3	242/308/387	145	290	17	4	22%	8%	97	+1.1	230/297/357	127	277	16	2	22%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Robert Fick 2003 · MLB	29	52→54	52→55	37→40	51	265/326/436	171	285	19	2	15%	8%	114	+2.4	252/317/396	144	270	15	3	13%	8%	102	+1.5	247/317/376	130	263	13	1	12%	9%	98	+0.7
●J.P. Crawford 2024 · MLB	29	54→57	46→45	42→50	60	261/356/399	138	300	13	3	17%	12%	117	+2.6	242/338/373	131	289	14	6	20%	12%	105	+1.7	233/331/352	119	279	14	5	20%	12%	98	+1.1
●Connor Joe 2022 · MLB	29	48→51	52→50	45	55	246/336/415	169	291	20	4	22%	11%	114	+2.4	239/330/385	146	295	14	6	22%	11%	105	+1.7	233/329/375	143	289	12	5	22%	11%	103	+1.2
✕Omar Narváez 2021 · MLB	29	50→54	52→50	42→30	54	256/338/418	162	300	21	3	22%	10%	115	+2.4	240/317/367	127	286	13	2	20%	9%	95	+1.0	234/312/347	112	279	11	0	19%	9%	90	+0.3

Trevor Larnach

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps