Jesús Báez
SS Springfield Cardinals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A+/ANYM | 316 | .262/.338/.447 | 11 | 9 | 84 | — | .231/.290/.400 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+/A2 orgs | 442 | .242/.329/.387 | 14 | 9 | 68 | — | .207/.274/.329 |
| 2026 | 21 | AA/A+STL | 500 | .283/.335/.587 | 39 | 8 | 112 | — | .247/.290/.495 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBSTL | 4 | .249/.298/.445 | 0 | 0 | 110 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ49% MLB | 23 | MLBSTL | 230 | .251/.303/.451 | 11 | 3 | 113 | 1.0 | |
| 2029PROJ65% MLB | 24 | MLBSTL | 339 | .253/.306/.453 | 16 | 5 | 115 | 1.6 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | — | 217 | 186 | 45 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 46 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 242 | 344 | 403 | 747 | 161 | 281 | 21 | 12 | 335 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 160 | 138 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 28 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 210 | 310 | 333 | 643 | 123 | 245 | 18 | 12 | 292 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 32 | 30 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 267 | 312 | 467 | 779 | 200 | 292 | 16 | 6 | 342 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 284 | 252 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 46 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 262 | 340 | 444 | 785 | 183 | 283 | 16 | 9 | 347 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 416 | 365 | 89 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 43 | 77 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 244 | 330 | 397 | 727 | 153 | 270 | 19 | 10 | 325 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 26 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 217 | 308 | 217 | 525 | 250 | 12 | 12 | 255 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 257 | 234 | 74 | 10 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 41 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 316 | 363 | 679 | 1.042 | 363 | 282 | 16 | 4 | 437 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 243 | 219 | 54 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 18 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 247 | 307 | 489 | 795 | 242 | 234 | 16 | 7 | 341 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 217 | 193 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 56 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 145 | 233 | 233 | 466 | 88 | 179 | 26 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 160 | 145 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 152 | 222 | 234 | 456 | 83 | 193 | 27 | 8 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 32 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 219 | 355 | 574 | 161 | 246 | 22 | 3 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 284 | 259 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 63 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 236 | 298 | 405 | 703 | 170 | 263 | 22 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 416 | 377 | 78 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 31 | 103 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 207 | 274 | 337 | 611 | 130 | 243 | 25 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 26 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 269 | 208 | 478 | 243 | 15 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 257 | 237 | 67 | 9 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 50 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 283 | 323 | 586 | 909 | 304 | 257 | 19 | 3 | 379 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 243 | 224 | 47 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 50 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 210 | 256 | 397 | 654 | 187 | 210 | 21 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 217 | 193 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 56 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 145 | 233 | 233 | 466 | 88 | 178 | 26 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets 1 | — | 217 | 186 | 45 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 46 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 242 | 344 | 403 | 747 | 161 | 281 | 21 | 12 | 335 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 160 | 145 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 152 | 222 | 234 | 456 | 83 | 204 | 27 | 8 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Mets | — | 160 | 138 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 28 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 210 | 310 | 333 | 643 | 123 | 245 | 18 | 12 | 292 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 290 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 70 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 228 | 287 | 386 | 673 | 159 | 264 | 22 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 316 | 282 | 74 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 51 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 262 | 338 | 447 | 784 | 184 | 284 | 16 | 9 | 347 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 442 | 401 | 83 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 107 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 207 | 274 | 329 | 603 | 122 | 246 | 24 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 442 | 388 | 94 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 46 | 80 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 242 | 329 | 387 | 715 | 144 | 268 | 18 | 10 | 321 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 460 | 114 | 18 | 0 | 32 | 21 | 100 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 248 | 292 | 496 | 788 | 248 | 242 | 20 | 4 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 500 | 453 | 128 | 21 | 0 | 39 | 28 | 80 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 283 | 335 | 587 | 923 | 305 | 258 | 16 | 6 | 390 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 217 | 193 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 56 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 145 | 233 | 233 | 466 | 88 | 179 | 26 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 160 | 146 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 151 | 222 | 233 | 454 | 82 | 193 | 27 | 8 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 289 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 70 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 228 | 287 | 388 | 674 | 159 | 261 | 22 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 442 | 402 | 83 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 107 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 206 | 274 | 328 | 602 | 122 | 243 | 24 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 467 | 114 | 18 | 0 | 32 | 21 | 100 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 244 | 292 | 488 | 781 | 244 | 234 | 20 | 4 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 289 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 70 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 228 | 287 | 388 | 674 | 159 | 261 | 22 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 442 | 402 | 83 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 107 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 206 | 274 | 328 | 602 | 122 | 243 | 24 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 467 | 114 | 18 | 0 | 32 | 21 | 100 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 244 | 292 | 488 | 781 | 244 | 234 | 20 | 4 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | STL | 2% | 610 | 565 | 142 | 23 | 1 | 31 | 33 | 123 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 251 | 300 | 457 | 757 | 206 | 267 | 20 | 5 | 331 | 110 | +7 | +0 | -3 | +7 | +13 | 1.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | STL | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 249 | 298 | 445 | 744 | 196 | 268 | 25 | 0 | 326 | 110 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | STL | 49% | 468 | 434 | 110 | 18 | 1 | 24 | 26 | 93 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 253 | 305 | 463 | 767 | 209 | 268 | 20 | 6 | 335 | 113 | +7 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +10 | 2.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 65% | 520 | 478 | 122 | 20 | 1 | 26 | 31 | 103 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 255 | 308 | 465 | 773 | 210 | 270 | 20 | 6 | 338 | 115 | +9 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +11 | 2.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 73% | 558 | 513 | 130 | 21 | 1 | 28 | 34 | 110 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 255 | 310 | 465 | 774 | 210 | 271 | 20 | 6 | 338 | 115 | +10 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +12 | 2.7 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | STL | 76% | 576 | 528 | 134 | 22 | 1 | 28 | 36 | 115 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 255 | 310 | 462 | 772 | 207 | 272 | 20 | 6 | 337 | 115 | +10 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +12 | 2.8 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 76% | 580 | 531 | 134 | 22 | 1 | 28 | 37 | 117 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 253 | 310 | 457 | 767 | 204 | 273 | 20 | 6 | 335 | 113 | +9 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +13 | 2.7 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 76% | 575 | 527 | 132 | 22 | 1 | 27 | 37 | 117 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 252 | 308 | 452 | 760 | 201 | 272 | 20 | 6 | 333 | 111 | +8 | -0 | -2 | +6 | +12 | 2.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 74% | 561 | 514 | 128 | 21 | 1 | 26 | 36 | 116 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 249 | 305 | 446 | 752 | 197 | 271 | 21 | 6 | 329 | 109 | +6 | -1 | -3 | +6 | +12 | 2.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | STL | 73% | 548 | 503 | 125 | 21 | 1 | 25 | 34 | 115 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 247 | 302 | 439 | 741 | 193 | 269 | 21 | 6 | 325 | 106 | +4 | -1 | -3 | +6 | +12 | 1.8 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | STL | 73% | 532 | 489 | 120 | 20 | 1 | 24 | 33 | 114 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 243 | 297 | 430 | 727 | 187 | 267 | 21 | 6 | 319 | 102 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +6 | +12 | 1.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB MLE | STL | 72% | 510 | 469 | 111 | 18 | 0 | 22 | 31 | 111 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 291 | 417 | 708 | 180 | 263 | 22 | 6 | 312 | 97 | -2 | -0 | -5 | +5 | +11 | 1.0 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB MLE | STL | 72% | 474 | 439 | 101 | 16 | 0 | 19 | 28 | 106 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 231 | 283 | 402 | 685 | 171 | 259 | 22 | 6 | 302 | 91 | -5 | -0 | -5 | +5 | +10 | 0.5 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB MLE | STL | 68% | 417 | 387 | 86 | 13 | 0 | 16 | 24 | 96 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 223 | 274 | 383 | 657 | 160 | 253 | 23 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -9 | -0 | -6 | +4 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | STL | 49% | 230 | 212 | 53 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 251 | 303 | 451 | 754 | 199 | 269 | 20 | 6 | 330 | 113 | +4 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | 1.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 65% | 339 | 312 | 80 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 20 | 67 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 253 | 306 | 453 | 760 | 201 | 271 | 20 | 6 | 332 | 115 | +6 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +7 | 1.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 73% | 406 | 373 | 95 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 25 | 80 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 253 | 308 | 453 | 761 | 200 | 273 | 20 | 6 | 333 | 115 | +7 | -0 | -1 | +4 | +9 | 2.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | STL | 76% | 439 | 404 | 102 | 18 | 1 | 20 | 27 | 87 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 253 | 308 | 451 | 759 | 198 | 273 | 20 | 6 | 333 | 115 | +8 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 2.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 76% | 441 | 405 | 102 | 18 | 1 | 20 | 28 | 89 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 251 | 308 | 446 | 754 | 194 | 274 | 20 | 6 | 331 | 113 | +7 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 2.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 76% | 437 | 401 | 101 | 18 | 1 | 19 | 28 | 89 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 250 | 306 | 442 | 748 | 192 | 273 | 20 | 6 | 328 | 111 | +6 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +9 | 1.9 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 74% | 417 | 384 | 96 | 17 | 1 | 18 | 26 | 86 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 248 | 304 | 436 | 740 | 188 | 272 | 21 | 6 | 325 | 109 | +5 | -0 | -2 | +4 | +9 | 1.6 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | STL | 73% | 402 | 370 | 91 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 25 | 84 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 245 | 300 | 429 | 729 | 184 | 271 | 21 | 6 | 321 | 106 | +3 | -1 | -3 | +4 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | STL | 73% | 387 | 356 | 86 | 15 | 0 | 16 | 24 | 83 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 296 | 420 | 715 | 179 | 268 | 21 | 6 | 315 | 102 | +1 | -0 | -3 | +4 | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB CTX | STL | 72% | 369 | 341 | 81 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 22 | 81 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 236 | 290 | 408 | 697 | 172 | 264 | 22 | 6 | 307 | 97 | -1 | -0 | -3 | +4 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB CTX | STL | 72% | 342 | 316 | 72 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 20 | 77 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 230 | 282 | 393 | 675 | 163 | 260 | 23 | 6 | 298 | 91 | -4 | -0 | -4 | +4 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB CTX | STL | 68% | 282 | 262 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 65 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 273 | 375 | 647 | 153 | 254 | 23 | 6 | 287 | 83 | -6 | +0 | -4 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 4491 | 4136 | 1016 | 176 | 7 | 194 | 274 | 934 | 47 | 33 | 21 | 246 | 300 | 432 | 732 | 187 | 271 | 21 | 6 | 321 | 100 | +35 | -2 | -26 | +48 | +97 | 15.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 599 | 146 | 25 | 1 | 28 | 40 | 135 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 244 | 299 | 429 | 728 | 185 | 269 | 21 | 6 | 321 | 100 | +5 | -0 | -4 | +7 | +14 | 2.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 8164 | 7496 | 1795 | 296 | 11 | 364 | 502 | 1731 | 89 | 89 | 51 | 239 | 295 | 428 | 723 | 188 | 262 | 21 | 6 | 316 | 100 | +51 | -3 | -37 | +70 | +141 | 22.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 143 | 24 | 1 | 29 | 40 | 138 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 240 | 295 | 429 | 724 | 189 | 263 | 21 | 6 | 316 | 100 | +5 | -0 | -4 | +7 | +14 | 2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 257 PAwOBA .434 → .379 (−54)K% 16.0% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.95% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.72% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 2.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.050 | 19.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.982 | ×1.050 | 4.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.982 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 10.88% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .434 → .379; ISO .363 → .307; BABIP .282 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 243 PAwOBA .338 → .285 (−52)K% 16.0% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 20.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.41% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×1.027 | 15.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.997 | ×1.027 | 5.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.997 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 6.39% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .338 → .285; ISO .242 → .199; BABIP .234 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 416 PAwOBA .320 → .271 (−49)K% 18.5% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.51% | ÷0.951 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.027 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 7.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.18% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | ×1.042 | 19.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.86% | ÷1.083 | ×0.810 | ×0.985 | ×1.042 | 3.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.850 | ×0.985 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.86% | ÷0.857 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 4.73% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 102, 2B 117, 3B 85, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .320 → .271; ISO .153 → .137; BABIP .270 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ASt. Lucie Mets · 26 PAwOBA .249 → .223 (−26)K% 11.5% → 14.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.060 | ×1.360 | — | — | 14.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷0.953 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 24.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.903 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.855 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 95, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 112, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .249 → .223; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 284 PAwOBA .340 → .297 (−44)K% 16.2% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.20% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.80% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.76% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.90% | ÷0.957 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 18.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.80% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.85% | ÷0.826 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 4.91% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 91, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .340 → .297; ISO .183 → .169; BABIP .283 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 32 PAwOBA .332 → .255 (−78)K% 15.6% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.62% | ÷0.988 | ×1.310 | — | — | 20.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.050 | 4.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 14.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 9.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.341 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.050 | 2.76% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 86, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .332 → .255; ISO .200 → .145; BABIP .292 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Mets · 160 PAwOBA .288 → .206 (−83)K% 17.5% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.50% | ÷0.949 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.88% | ÷1.004 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.45% | ÷1.046 | ×0.820 | ×0.998 | ×1.022 | 12.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.18% | ÷0.953 | ×0.720 | ×0.998 | ×1.022 | 6.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | ×0.998 | ×1.022 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.39% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 91, 3B 96, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .288 → .206; ISO .123 → .090; BABIP .245 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Mets 1 · 217 PAwOBA .330 → .212 (−117)K% 21.2% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.20% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.98% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 8.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.71% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | ×0.974 | ×1.022 | 13.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.974 | ×1.022 | 3.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×0.974 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 2.53% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 102, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .330 → .212; ISO .161 → .086; BABIP .281 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).