Justin Foscue
1B Texas Rangers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/ROKTEX | 240 | .288/.431/.503 | 10 | 3 | 120 | — | .249/.356/.409 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLBTEX | 44 | .048/.091/.071 | 0 | 0 | -58 | -1.3 | |
| 2025 | 26 | AAATEX | 453 | .261/.343/.474 | 19 | 7 | 88 | — | .226/.292/.401 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAATEX | 140 | .287/.410/.426 | 2 | 3 | 95 | — | .238/.331/.328 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBTEX | 247 | .271/.333/.484 | 11 | 0 | 125 | 0.6 | |
| 2027PROJ | 28 | MLBTEX | 256 | .224/.300/.385 | 8 | 3 | 91 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ65% MLB | 29 | MLBTEX | 177 | .221/.297/.378 | 5 | 1 | 88 | -0.2 |
Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 55 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 104 | 93 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 247 | 320 | 387 | 707 | 140 | 333 | 28 | 8 | 316 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 150 | 125 | 37 | 11 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 296 | 409 | 736 | 1.145 | 440 | 315 | 26 | 11 | 479 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 89 | 70 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 257 | 416 | 529 | 944 | 271 | 310 | 26 | 17 | 417 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 460 | 400 | 115 | 31 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 66 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 287 | 372 | 482 | 855 | 195 | 308 | 14 | 10 | 374 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 563 | 462 | 123 | 31 | 4 | 18 | 85 | 70 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 266 | 396 | 468 | 863 | 201 | 279 | 12 | 15 | 385 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 44 | 42 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 91 | 71 | 162 | 24 | 83 | 41 | 5 | 81 | -58 | -8 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +1 | -1.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 219 | 174 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 37 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 276 | 422 | 477 | 899 | 201 | 302 | 17 | 18 | 402 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 21 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 412 | 524 | 765 | 1.289 | 353 | 429 | 10 | 19 | 545 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 453 | 399 | 104 | 28 | 0 | 19 | 45 | 63 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 261 | 343 | 474 | 817 | 213 | 266 | 14 | 10 | 358 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 247 | 225 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 62 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 271 | 333 | 484 | 818 | 213 | 327 | 25 | 7 | 359 | 125 | +7 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 140 | 115 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 287 | 410 | 426 | 836 | 139 | 337 | 16 | 16 | 377 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 291 | 267 | 63 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 297 | 419 | 716 | 184 | 294 | 27 | 7 | 317 | 100 | +0 | +0 | -0 | -12 | +6 | -0.6 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 104 | 96 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 262 | 302 | 564 | 94 | 313 | 33 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 150 | 129 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 329 | 574 | 903 | 349 | 248 | 35 | 8 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 460 | 413 | 102 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 80 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 247 | 315 | 414 | 729 | 167 | 265 | 17 | 7 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 563 | 485 | 112 | 26 | 4 | 13 | 62 | 87 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 231 | 335 | 381 | 717 | 151 | 254 | 15 | 11 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 44 | 42 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 91 | 71 | 162 | 24 | 83 | 41 | 5 | 82 | -58 | -8 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +1 | -1.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 219 | 186 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 42 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 247 | 358 | 398 | 756 | 151 | 286 | 19 | 12 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 21 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 526 | 860 | 263 | 302 | 14 | 10 | 376 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 453 | 411 | 93 | 27 | 0 | 15 | 33 | 70 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 226 | 292 | 401 | 693 | 175 | 233 | 15 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 247 | 225 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 62 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 271 | 333 | 476 | 809 | 204 | 327 | 25 | 7 | 353 | 125 | +7 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 140 | 122 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 238 | 331 | 328 | 659 | 90 | 296 | 19 | 11 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 343 | 304 | 67 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 23 | 117 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 220 | 305 | 467 | 772 | 247 | 287 | 34 | 7 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 343 | 288 | 78 | 22 | 1 | 21 | 39 | 91 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 271 | 384 | 573 | 957 | 302 | 320 | 27 | 11 | 414 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 460 | 413 | 102 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 80 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 247 | 315 | 414 | 729 | 167 | 271 | 17 | 7 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 460 | 400 | 115 | 31 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 66 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 287 | 372 | 482 | 855 | 195 | 308 | 14 | 10 | 374 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 563 | 485 | 112 | 26 | 4 | 13 | 62 | 87 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 231 | 335 | 381 | 717 | 151 | 256 | 15 | 11 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 563 | 462 | 123 | 31 | 4 | 18 | 85 | 70 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 266 | 396 | 468 | 863 | 201 | 279 | 12 | 15 | 385 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 284 | 247 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 63 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 223 | 322 | 364 | 686 | 142 | 266 | 22 | 11 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 284 | 233 | 57 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 45 | 57 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 245 | 378 | 425 | 803 | 180 | 281 | 20 | 16 | 363 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 453 | 411 | 93 | 27 | 0 | 15 | 33 | 70 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 226 | 292 | 401 | 693 | 175 | 237 | 15 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 453 | 399 | 104 | 28 | 0 | 19 | 45 | 63 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 261 | 343 | 474 | 817 | 213 | 266 | 14 | 10 | 358 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 387 | 347 | 91 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 88 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 262 | 335 | 435 | 770 | 173 | 317 | 23 | 8 | 337 | 114 | +7 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +8 | 0.9 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 387 | 340 | 94 | 23 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 84 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 276 | 361 | 465 | 826 | 188 | 331 | 22 | 10 | 365 | 114 | +7 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +8 | 0.9 |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 343 | 303 | 67 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 23 | 117 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 221 | 305 | 469 | 774 | 248 | 275 | 34 | 7 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 460 | 416 | 102 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 80 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 245 | 315 | 411 | 726 | 166 | 265 | 17 | 7 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 563 | 482 | 112 | 26 | 4 | 13 | 62 | 87 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 232 | 335 | 384 | 719 | 151 | 254 | 15 | 11 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 284 | 246 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 63 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 224 | 322 | 366 | 687 | 142 | 256 | 22 | 11 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 453 | 412 | 93 | 27 | 0 | 15 | 33 | 70 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 226 | 292 | 400 | 692 | 175 | 233 | 15 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 387 | 346 | 91 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 88 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 263 | 335 | 436 | 771 | 173 | 316 | 23 | 8 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 284 | 246 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 63 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 224 | 322 | 366 | 687 | 142 | 256 | 22 | 11 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 453 | 412 | 93 | 27 | 0 | 15 | 33 | 70 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 226 | 292 | 400 | 692 | 175 | 233 | 15 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 387 | 346 | 91 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 88 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 263 | 335 | 436 | 771 | 173 | 316 | 23 | 8 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | TEX | 100% | 380 | 340 | 75 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 32 | 92 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 222 | 299 | 378 | 677 | 156 | 268 | 24 | 8 | 303 | 91 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | TEX | 100% | 256 | 229 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 62 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 224 | 300 | 385 | 685 | 161 | 267 | 24 | 9 | 306 | 91 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -5 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | TEX | 65% | 272 | 243 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 66 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 296 | 371 | 667 | 151 | 266 | 24 | 8 | 299 | 88 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | TEX | 65% | 177 | 158 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 297 | 378 | 675 | 157 | 265 | 24 | 8 | 301 | 88 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 468 | 425 | 97 | 21 | 1 | 16 | 34 | 123 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 295 | 395 | 690 | 167 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 311 | 99 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -15 | +10 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 134 | 29 | 1 | 22 | 47 | 171 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 293 | 392 | 684 | 164 | 280 | 26 | 7 | 311 | 99 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -21 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3018 | 2679 | 625 | 153 | 9 | 96 | 258 | 633 | 60 | 39 | 18 | 233 | 315 | 405 | 719 | 171 | 269 | 21 | 9 | 314 | 99 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -21 | +18 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 135 | 33 | 2 | 21 | 56 | 136 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 234 | 316 | 407 | 724 | 173 | 269 | 21 | 9 | 314 | 99 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -17 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAARound Rock Express · 140 PAwOBA .371 → .309 (−62)K% 15.7% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.71% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.981 | ×1.003 | 20.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.003 | 8.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.981 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .371 → .309; ISO .139 → .112; BABIP .337 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARound Rock Express · 453 PAwOBA .351 → .299 (−51)K% 13.9% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.91% | ÷1.086 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.93% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.96% | ÷1.053 | ×0.930 | ×0.966 | ×1.018 | 14.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×1.018 | 7.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | ×0.966 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.65% | ÷0.913 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.41% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .351 → .299; ISO .213 → .182; BABIP .266 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAARound Rock Express · 219 PAwOBA .394 → .343 (−51)K% 16.9% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.89% | ÷1.069 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.81% | ÷1.040 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 12.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.63% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×1.009 | ×1.033 | 22.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.84% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.033 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.009 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.57% | ÷0.928 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 5.12% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 114, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .394 → .343; ISO .201 → .172; BABIP .302 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Rangers · 21 PAwOBA .530 → .376 (−155)K% 9.5% → 13.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.993 | ×1.440 | — | — | 13.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 11.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 15.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 13.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 4.73% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .530 → .376; ISO .353 → .255; BABIP .429 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAARound Rock Express · 563 PAwOBA .377 → .318 (−59)K% 12.4% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.43% | ÷0.964 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.10% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 11.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.49% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×0.977 | ×1.048 | 17.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.91% | ÷1.044 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | ×1.048 | 6.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.918 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×1.048 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.59% | ÷1.035 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 3.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 84, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .377 → .318; ISO .201 → .159; BABIP .279 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 460 PAwOBA .369 → .315 (−55)K% 14.3% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.35% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.78% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.36% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 18.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.28% | ÷1.030 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 7.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.30% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.49% | ÷0.915 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.03% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .369 → .315; ISO .195 → .171; BABIP .308 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Hickory Crawdads · 150 PAwOBA .469 → .371 (−98)K% 26.0% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.00% | ÷0.990 | ×1.350 | — | — | 35.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.67% | ÷0.964 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.33% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 4.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.79% | ÷1.024 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 10.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.79% | ÷1.091 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 9.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 16.28% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 15.52% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .469 → .371; ISO .440 → .363; BABIP .315 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 104 PAwOBA .311 → .266 (−45)K% 27.9% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.88% | ÷1.044 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.098 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.042 | 5.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.88% | ÷1.006 | ×0.940 | ×0.981 | ×1.042 | 20.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.94% | ÷0.957 | ×0.870 | ×0.981 | ×1.042 | 10.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.114 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 2.28% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 99, K 109, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .311 → .266; ISO .140 → .115; BABIP .333 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).