Ben Guez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 27 | AAADET | 462 | .230/.321/.423 | 16 | 7 | 66 | — | .189/.262/.355 |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 210 | .288/.394/.497 | 9 | 8 | 104 | — | .205/.302/.361 |
| 2016 | 29 | AAAColorado Spri… | 50 | .171/.306/.317 | 1 | 3 | 6 | — | .116/.224/.233 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 22 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 438 | 404 | 111 | 34 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 95 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 275 | 322 | 483 | 804 | 208 | 330 | 22 | 4 | 348 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 259 | 223 | 56 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 63 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 251 | 343 | 439 | 782 | 188 | 305 | 24 | 9 | 342 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 32 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 357 | 419 | 464 | 884 | 107 | 435 | 16 | 9 | 384 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 102 | 87 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 207 | 324 | 322 | 645 | 115 | 270 | 23 | 10 | 302 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | INTL | Surprise Rafters | — | 63 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 228 | 302 | 456 | 758 | 228 | 303 | 33 | 8 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 348 | 316 | 88 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 72 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 278 | 335 | 411 | 747 | 133 | 350 | 21 | 6 | 329 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 146 | 127 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 299 | 378 | 504 | 882 | 205 | 330 | 15 | 9 | 380 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 60 | 44 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 273 | 467 | 295 | 762 | 23 | 316 | 10 | 23 | 375 | 140 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 340 | 292 | 83 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 76 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 284 | 380 | 455 | 835 | 171 | 365 | 22 | 10 | 370 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 107 | 78 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 308 | 486 | 474 | 960 | 167 | 356 | 16 | 19 | 429 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 101 | 85 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 247 | 366 | 424 | 790 | 176 | 340 | 29 | 12 | 358 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 498 | 425 | 103 | 19 | 2 | 18 | 62 | 136 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 242 | 349 | 424 | 773 | 181 | 312 | 27 | 12 | 346 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | INTL | Aguilas de Mexicali | — | 195 | 154 | 36 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 56 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 234 | 389 | 442 | 830 | 208 | 312 | 29 | 18 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 462 | 404 | 93 | 24 | 3 | 16 | 37 | 129 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 230 | 321 | 423 | 744 | 193 | 295 | 28 | 8 | 330 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 141 | 115 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 32 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 287 | 410 | 504 | 914 | 217 | 351 | 23 | 16 | 400 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | INTL | Tigres de Aragua | — | 69 | 62 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 290 | 362 | 484 | 846 | 194 | 517 | 43 | 9 | 375 | 140 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 50 | 41 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 171 | 306 | 317 | 623 | 146 | 333 | 46 | 14 | 285 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 22 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 438 | 410 | 90 | 26 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 129 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 220 | 259 | 378 | 637 | 159 | 287 | 29 | 3 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 259 | 228 | 51 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 75 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 224 | 303 | 390 | 694 | 167 | 284 | 29 | 7 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 32 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 310 | 355 | 379 | 734 | 69 | 403 | 19 | 6 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 102 | 89 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 146 | 255 | 236 | 491 | 90 | 231 | 33 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 348 | 321 | 82 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 87 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 255 | 303 | 371 | 674 | 115 | 331 | 25 | 5 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 146 | 131 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 282 | 343 | 458 | 801 | 176 | 319 | 18 | 6 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 340 | 301 | 72 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 96 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 239 | 320 | 392 | 713 | 153 | 324 | 28 | 7 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 107 | 84 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 262 | 410 | 369 | 779 | 107 | 312 | 21 | 13 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 498 | 445 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 17 | 42 | 161 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 209 | 289 | 369 | 657 | 160 | 280 | 32 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 462 | 417 | 79 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 24 | 152 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 189 | 262 | 355 | 617 | 165 | 250 | 33 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 141 | 122 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 42 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 205 | 302 | 361 | 663 | 156 | 266 | 30 | 11 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 50 | 43 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 116 | 224 | 233 | 457 | 116 | 244 | 62 | 10 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 438 | 410 | 90 | 26 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 129 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 220 | 259 | 378 | 637 | 159 | 295 | 29 | 3 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | A RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 438 | 404 | 111 | 34 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 95 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 275 | 322 | 483 | 804 | 208 | 330 | 22 | 4 | 348 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 456 | 404 | 87 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 133 | 13 | 18 | 10 | 215 | 296 | 359 | 654 | 144 | 289 | 29 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA RAW | 4 teams | — | 456 | 395 | 97 | 21 | 4 | 13 | 42 | 112 | 13 | 18 | 10 | 246 | 338 | 418 | 755 | 172 | 308 | 25 | 9 | 335 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 554 | 507 | 132 | 29 | 9 | 6 | 28 | 129 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 260 | 313 | 389 | 702 | 128 | 335 | 23 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 554 | 487 | 138 | 32 | 8 | 7 | 48 | 100 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 283 | 361 | 425 | 786 | 142 | 341 | 18 | 9 | 347 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 548 | 474 | 116 | 24 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 144 | 23 | 19 | 10 | 245 | 341 | 386 | 727 | 141 | 331 | 26 | 8 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 548 | 455 | 128 | 30 | 6 | 12 | 65 | 122 | 23 | 19 | 10 | 281 | 398 | 453 | 851 | 171 | 359 | 22 | 12 | 379 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 693 | 618 | 129 | 22 | 2 | 24 | 58 | 225 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 209 | 289 | 367 | 657 | 159 | 282 | 32 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 693 | 579 | 139 | 30 | 2 | 25 | 97 | 192 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 240 | 360 | 428 | 789 | 188 | 312 | 28 | 14 | 353 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 462 | 417 | 79 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 24 | 152 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 189 | 262 | 355 | 617 | 165 | 254 | 33 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA RAW | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 462 | 404 | 93 | 24 | 3 | 16 | 37 | 129 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 230 | 321 | 423 | 744 | 193 | 295 | 28 | 8 | 330 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 210 | 182 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 63 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 209 | 308 | 374 | 681 | 165 | 270 | 30 | 11 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 210 | 177 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 62 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 288 | 394 | 497 | 891 | 209 | 396 | 30 | 13 | 392 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 50 | 43 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 116 | 224 | 233 | 457 | 116 | 333 | 62 | 10 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA RAW | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 50 | 41 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 171 | 306 | 317 | 623 | 146 | 333 | 46 | 14 | 285 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 438 | 413 | 90 | 26 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 129 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 218 | 259 | 375 | 635 | 157 | 287 | 29 | 3 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 456 | 407 | 87 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 133 | 13 | 18 | 10 | 214 | 296 | 356 | 652 | 143 | 280 | 29 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 554 | 510 | 132 | 29 | 9 | 6 | 28 | 129 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 259 | 313 | 386 | 699 | 127 | 327 | 23 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 548 | 474 | 116 | 24 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 144 | 23 | 19 | 10 | 245 | 341 | 386 | 727 | 141 | 321 | 26 | 8 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 693 | 618 | 129 | 22 | 2 | 24 | 58 | 225 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 209 | 289 | 367 | 657 | 159 | 280 | 32 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 462 | 418 | 79 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 24 | 152 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 189 | 262 | 354 | 616 | 165 | 250 | 33 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 210 | 182 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 63 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 209 | 308 | 374 | 681 | 165 | 266 | 30 | 11 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 50 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 114 | 224 | 227 | 452 | 114 | 244 | 62 | 10 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3411 | 3055 | 676 | 146 | 31 | 83 | 229 | 1006 | 90 | 89 | 58 | 221 | 295 | 371 | 666 | 150 | 299 | 29 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -76 | -5 | +0 | -37 | +74 | -4.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 129 | 28 | 6 | 16 | 44 | 192 | 17 | 17 | 11 | 222 | 295 | 373 | 668 | 151 | 300 | 30 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -14 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 50 PAwOBA .284 → .177 (−108)K% 46.0% → 61.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 46.00% | ÷0.964 | ×1.290 | — | — | 61.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.00% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 9.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 1.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.046 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.982 | 14.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.196 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.982 | 11.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.973 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 4.37% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 109, 2B 139, 3B 130, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .284 → .177; ISO .146 → .080; BABIP .333 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 141 PAwOBA .390 → .296 (−94)K% 22.7% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.70% | ÷0.979 | ×1.290 | — | — | 29.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.60% | ÷1.015 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 10.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.10% | ÷1.044 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 19.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.43% | ÷1.214 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 5.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.23% | ÷0.886 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 6.31% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 109, 2B 143, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .390 → .296; ISO .217 → .172; BABIP .351 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 462 PAwOBA .323 → .266 (−56)K% 27.9% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.92% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.01% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 3.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 16.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.73% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 6.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.049 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.82% | ÷0.899 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 5.45% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 106, 3B 110, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .323 → .266; ISO .193 → .167; BABIP .295 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 498 PAwOBA .338 → .287 (−50)K% 27.3% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.31% | ÷1.011 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.45% | ÷1.041 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.15% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×0.986 | ×1.018 | 20.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.57% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.018 | 5.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×1.018 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.23% | ÷0.883 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 6.03% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .338 → .287; ISO .181 → .167; BABIP .312 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 340 PAwOBA .362 → .308 (−54)K% 22.4% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.35% | ÷0.952 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.71% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.53% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 3.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.61% | ÷1.045 | ×0.930 | ×0.973 | ×1.033 | 21.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.26% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | ×1.033 | 7.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.973 | ×1.033 | 3.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.913 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 2.64% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 109, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 90, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .362 → .308; ISO .171 → .154; BABIP .365 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAErie SeaWolves · 107 PAwOBA .423 → .346 (−77)K% 15.9% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.89% | ÷0.948 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.69% | ÷1.013 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 12.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.54% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 5.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.87% | ÷1.003 | ×0.970 | ×0.951 | ×0.998 | 25.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×0.951 | ×0.998 | 5.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.951 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.260 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.04% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .423 → .346; ISO .167 → .119; BABIP .356 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 348 PAwOBA .322 → .290 (−33)K% 20.7% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.03% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 4.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.54% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×1.048 | 22.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.07% | ÷1.042 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.048 | 9.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.932 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.048 | 1.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.922 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 1.17% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 95, 2B 108, 3B 86, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .322 → .290; ISO .133 → .117; BABIP .350 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAErie SeaWolves · 146 PAwOBA .375 → .334 (−41)K% 15.1% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.07% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.90% | ÷1.019 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷1.011 | ×0.970 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 23.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.81% | ÷1.005 | ×0.860 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 3.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.952 | ×0.950 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 4.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.81% | ÷1.245 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.42% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 102, 2B 101, 3B 90, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .375 → .334; ISO .205 → .172; BABIP .330 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .