Manuel Pena

SS Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 23 L/R 6'0" / 170 lbs AA HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#244ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	A+ARI	491	.275/.329/.370	4	10	51	—	.221/.261/.294
2025	21	AA/INTL2 orgs	558	.276/.319/.434	16	3	67	—	.234/.267/.347
2026	22	AAA/AAARI	506	.305/.349/.555	31	6	106	—	.268/.303/.468
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBARI	4	.248/.284/.406	0	0	88	0.0
2028PROJ39% MLB	24	MLBARI	182	.250/.288/.412	6	2	91	0.4
2029PROJ56% MLB	25	MLBARI	283	.251/.291/.414	9	3	93	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$3M2034Arb-2$3M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Z-Con%63

Max EV59

Whiff%49

K%44

Speed41

BB%15

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 65%

CompsLuis García Jr. (age 23) · Reid Brignac (age 23) · Francisco Mejía (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.248 / .284 / .406

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%4

BABIP309

ISO157

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE25

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.1M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL D-backs 1	—	222	194	49	5	2	4	26	46	1	17	7	253	344	361	705	108	310	21	12	321	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	158	137	34	7	1	0	20	41	0	1	3	248	344	314	658	66	354	26	13	304	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	128	116	33	3	3	4	10	30	0	4	1	284	341	466	807	181	345	23	8	350	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	237	215	52	10	4	4	17	59	2	5	5	242	303	381	685	140	312	25	7	303	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	229	206	51	9	4	1	19	58	2	8	5	248	317	345	662	97	336	25	8	298	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	491	451	124	27	2	4	33	106	3	10	10	275	329	370	699	95	350	22	7	313	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	470	437	126	27	3	14	24	105	3	2	2	288	330	460	790	172	346	22	5	344	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Toros del Este	—	88	81	17	1	0	2	6	21	0	1	3	210	264	296	561	86	254	24	7	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA	Reno Aces	—	227	209	62	9	0	5	13	54	1	3	0	297	341	411	752	115	370	24	6	331	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	279	254	79	14	0	26	18	65	1	3	0	311	356	673	1.030	362	317	23	6	432	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	—	222	203	32	3	1	2	17	56	1	17	7	158	226	212	438	54	207	25	8	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	158	144	30	6	1	0	13	56	0	1	3	208	274	264	538	56	335	35	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	—	128	120	24	2	2	3	6	43	0	4	1	200	238	325	563	125	274	34	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	237	221	44	8	3	3	11	81	2	5	5	199	244	303	547	104	294	34	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	229	211	43	7	4	1	14	77	2	8	5	204	260	289	549	85	307	34	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	491	462	102	20	1	4	22	148	3	10	10	221	261	294	555	74	311	30	4	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	470	444	104	20	3	8	17	132	3	2	2	234	267	347	614	113	306	28	4	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	227	213	58	8	0	4	9	65	1	3	0	272	305	366	671	94	353	29	4	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	279	261	69	12	0	21	13	79	1	3	0	264	302	552	854	287	281	28	5	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	—	222	203	32	3	1	2	17	56	1	17	7	158	226	212	438	54	205	25	8	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	—	222	194	49	5	2	4	26	46	1	17	7	253	344	361	705	108	310	21	12	321	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	286	263	54	8	3	3	20	99	0	5	4	205	261	293	554	87	313	35	7	243	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	286	253	67	10	4	4	30	71	0	5	4	265	343	383	726	119	350	25	10	325	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	466	432	87	15	7	4	25	158	4	13	10	201	252	296	548	95	303	34	5	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	466	421	103	19	8	5	36	117	4	13	10	245	310	363	674	119	323	25	8	300	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	491	462	102	20	1	4	22	148	3	10	10	221	261	294	555	74	314	30	4	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	—	491	451	124	27	2	4	33	106	3	10	10	275	329	370	699	95	350	22	7	313	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	558	527	124	24	3	10	21	157	3	3	5	235	269	349	618	114	311	28	4	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	558	518	143	28	3	16	30	126	3	3	5	276	319	434	754	158	332	23	5	330	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	506	474	126	19	0	25	22	144	2	6	0	266	301	464	765	198	323	28	4	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	506	463	141	23	0	31	31	119	2	6	0	305	349	555	904	251	343	24	6	387	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	—	222	202	32	3	1	2	17	56	1	17	7	158	226	213	439	54	207	25	8	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	286	264	54	8	3	3	20	99	0	5	4	205	261	292	553	87	308	35	7	243	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	466	434	87	15	7	4	25	158	4	13	10	200	252	295	547	94	300	34	5	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	491	463	102	20	1	4	22	148	3	10	10	220	261	294	555	73	311	30	4	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	558	529	124	24	3	10	21	157	3	3	5	234	269	348	616	113	306	28	4	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	506	477	126	19	0	25	22	144	2	6	0	264	301	461	762	197	313	28	4	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	491	463	102	20	1	4	22	148	3	10	10	220	261	294	555	73	311	30	4	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	558	529	124	24	3	10	21	157	3	3	5	234	269	348	616	113	306	28	4	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	506	477	126	19	0	25	22	144	2	6	0	264	301	461	762	197	313	28	4	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ARI	2%	604	571	139	24	2	21	25	161	3	6	2	243	279	400	679	157	300	27	4	298	88	-9	+0	+0	+6	+13	0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	ARI	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	248	284	406	690	158	309	25	0	303	88	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ARI	39%	470	444	108	19	1	16	21	123	2	5	1	246	284	406	690	160	301	26	4	303	91	-5	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	507	475	118	21	2	18	24	131	3	5	2	246	286	408	695	162	300	26	5	305	93	-4	+0	+0	+5	+11	1.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	ARI	64%	528	494	121	21	2	18	26	136	3	5	2	246	288	408	696	162	300	26	5	306	93	-4	+0	+0	+6	+11	1.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	ARI	66%	536	500	123	22	2	18	28	138	3	5	2	245	289	406	695	161	299	26	5	306	93	-4	+0	+0	+6	+12	1.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	ARI	67%	534	497	122	22	2	18	29	137	3	5	2	244	289	402	690	158	298	26	5	304	92	-5	+0	-1	+6	+12	1.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	ARI	66%	526	490	119	21	2	17	28	137	3	5	2	241	286	396	682	155	297	26	5	301	90	-6	+0	-1	+6	+11	1.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	ARI	65%	515	480	114	20	1	16	27	136	3	5	3	239	283	389	672	150	295	26	5	296	87	-8	-0	-2	+6	+11	0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	ARI	65%	499	468	109	19	1	15	26	133	2	4	8	235	278	380	658	145	293	27	5	291	83	-10	-2	-3	+5	+11	0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	ARI	65%	477	448	103	18	1	14	24	130	2	3	45	230	272	368	640	138	289	27	5	283	78	-13	-17	-4	+5	+10	-1.8
2028	24	MLB CTX	ARI	39%	182	171	43	8	1	6	8	48	1	2	1	250	288	412	700	161	310	26	4	307	91	-2	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	283	266	66	13	1	9	13	73	2	3	1	251	291	414	705	163	309	26	5	310	93	-2	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	ARI	64%	337	315	78	15	1	11	17	87	2	3	1	251	293	414	707	163	309	26	5	311	93	-3	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	ARI	66%	353	330	82	16	1	11	18	91	2	4	1	250	294	412	705	162	308	26	5	310	93	-3	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	ARI	67%	357	333	82	16	1	11	19	92	2	3	1	249	293	408	701	159	307	26	5	309	92	-3	+0	-0	+4	+8	0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	ARI	66%	346	323	80	16	1	11	18	90	2	3	2	246	291	402	693	156	306	26	5	305	90	-4	-0	-1	+4	+7	0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	ARI	65%	336	313	76	15	1	10	18	89	2	3	2	244	287	395	682	151	304	26	5	301	87	-5	-0	-1	+4	+7	0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	ARI	65%	323	302	72	14	1	9	17	86	1	2	5	240	283	385	668	146	302	27	5	295	83	-7	-2	-2	+3	+7	0.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	ARI	65%	308	289	69	13	1	9	15	84	1	2	29	235	276	373	650	139	298	27	5	287	78	-8	-11	-2	+3	+7	-1.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2825	2642	648	126	9	87	143	740	15	25	43	245	288	399	686	153	306	26	5	304	80	-38	-12	-7	+30	+61	3.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	608	149	29	2	20	33	170	3	6	10	245	287	398	685	153	306	26	5	304	80	-9	-3	-2	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	7331	6855	1610	280	30	205	369	2019	38	98	104	235	278	374	652	139	300	28	5	287	80	-63	-18	-10	+51	+104	6.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	608	143	25	3	18	33	179	3	9	9	235	278	375	653	140	301	28	5	287	80	-9	-2	-1	+7	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 279 PAwOBA .425 → .355 (−70)K% 23.3% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.30%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	28.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.45%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	4.64%
HBP% /PA	0.36%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.32%
Singles /BIP	20.63%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.986	×1.027	19.23%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.986	×1.027	6.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.940	×0.986	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.76%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	11.30%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .425 → .355; ISO .362 → .294; BABIP .317 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAReno Aces · 227 PAwOBA .328 → .289 (−39)K% 23.8% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.79%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	28.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.73%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.15%
HBP% /PA	0.44%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.43%
Singles /BIP	30.97%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.001	×1.050	30.28%
Doubles /BIP	5.81%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.001	×1.050	5.07%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.001	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	2.37%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .328 → .289; ISO .115 → .088; BABIP .370 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 470 PAwOBA .339 → .270 (−69)K% 22.3% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.34%	÷0.972	×1.220	—	—	28.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.11%	÷0.994	×0.700	—	×1.042	3.75%
HBP% /PA	0.64%	—	×0.870	—	×1.042	0.58%
Singles /BIP	24.70%	÷1.041	×0.920	×1.012	×1.042	23.01%
Doubles /BIP	8.13%	÷1.119	×0.840	×1.012	×1.042	6.44%
Triples /BIP	0.90%	÷0.985	×0.940	×1.012	×1.042	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	4.22%	÷1.333	×0.800	—	×1.042	2.64%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 108, 2B 124, 3B 97, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .339 → .270; ISO .172 → .118; BABIP .346 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hillsboro Hops · 491 PAwOBA .306 → .244 (−63)K% 21.6% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.59%	÷0.964	×1.350	—	—	30.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.72%	÷1.086	×0.710	—	×1.027	4.51%
HBP% /PA	0.61%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	0.51%
Singles /BIP	26.38%	÷1.049	×0.910	×1.025	×1.027	24.08%
Doubles /BIP	7.83%	÷1.066	×0.830	×1.025	×1.027	6.41%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷1.150	×0.820	×1.025	×1.027	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	1.16%	÷0.875	×0.830	—	×1.027	1.13%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 110, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 93, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .306 → .244; ISO .095 → .075; BABIP .350 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 237 PAwOBA .295 → .248 (−48)K% 24.9% → 34.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.89%	÷0.987	×1.350	—	—	34.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.75%	÷1.038	×0.710	—	×1.042	4.81%
HBP% /PA	0.84%	—	×0.810	—	×1.042	0.71%
Singles /BIP	21.79%	÷0.980	×0.910	×0.993	×1.042	20.93%
Doubles /BIP	6.41%	÷0.947	×0.830	×0.993	×1.042	5.81%
Triples /BIP	2.56%	÷0.900	×0.820	×0.993	×1.042	2.42%
Home runs /BIP	2.56%	÷0.952	×0.830	—	×1.042	2.33%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .295 → .248; ISO .140 → .117; BABIP .312 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AVisalia Rawhide · 229 PAwOBA .293 → .241 (−53)K% 25.3% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.33%	÷1.019	×1.360	—	—	33.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.30%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×1.030	5.97%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.70%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.060	×0.920	×1.026	×1.030	22.93%
Doubles /BIP	6.08%	÷1.029	×0.830	×1.026	×1.030	5.18%
Triples /BIP	2.70%	÷0.900	×0.910	×1.026	×1.030	2.89%
Home runs /BIP	0.68%	÷1.003	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.56%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .293 → .241; ISO .097 → .084; BABIP .336 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AVisalia Rawhide · 158 PAwOBA .295 → .243 (−52)K% 25.9% → 35.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.95%	÷1.001	×1.360	—	—	35.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.03%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×1.045	8.48%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.08%	÷0.997	×0.920	×0.989	×1.045	25.84%
Doubles /BIP	7.29%	÷0.942	×0.830	×0.989	×1.045	6.64%
Triples /BIP	1.04%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.989	×1.045	0.98%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.062	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .295 → .243; ISO .066 → .056; BABIP .354 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL D-backs Red · 128 PAwOBA .346 → .242 (−104)K% 23.4% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.44%	÷0.996	×1.440	—	—	33.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.81%	÷0.969	×0.620	—	×1.008	5.03%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.74%	÷0.996	×0.820	×0.994	×1.008	22.05%
Doubles /BIP	3.49%	÷0.974	×0.720	×0.994	×1.008	2.58%
Triples /BIP	3.49%	÷0.964	×0.720	×0.994	×1.008	2.61%
Home runs /BIP	4.65%	÷1.119	×0.780	—	×1.008	3.27%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 93, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .346 → .242; ISO .181 → .119; BABIP .345 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Paul DeJonglast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,500 PA	5.3	3,500	146	29	229	294	416	+36	+35	16.1	16.0
/162	664	28	6	+6.8	+6.6	3.1	pk7: 16
#2Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#3Greg Gagne'83-'97 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,207 PA	9.3	6,207	111	108	249*	297*	394*	+65	+26	13.2	13.0
/162	664	12	12	+6.9	+2.8	1.4	pk7: 13
#4Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#5Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
#6Deivi Cruz'97-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,375 PA	6.6	4,375	70	16	258*	282*	376*	+44	+19	6.1	6.4
/162	664	11	2	+6.7	+2.9	0.9	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.3	2,828	93	26	242	282	397	+30	+18	5.6	5.9
/162	664	22	6	+7.1	+4.2	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Pena (OGILVIE)	23	55	50	45	25	241/277/397	156	300	7	2	27%	4%	88	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Luis García Jr. 2023 · MLB	23	53→57	49→60	44→50	42	267/300/423	156	314	16	6	21%	4%	101	+1.4	265/301/408	143	298	15	14	16%	5%	98	+1.2	267/302/451	184	288	23	15	17%	5%	110	+1.8
✕Reid Brignac 2009 · AAA	23	47→54	48→55	49→50	42	235/279/382	147	289	15	10	24%	5%	84	+0.2	237/277/355	118	293	11	8	22%	5%	77	-0.3	236/275/340	105	288	9	6	21%	5%	72	-0.5
✕Francisco Mejía 2020 · MLB	24	50→60	51→55	46→40	42	254/299/418	164	301	18	4	22%	5%	101	+1.4	242/293/397	155	287	16	4	21%	5%	93	+0.8	244/283/399	156	290	15	0	21%	4%	91	+0.3
✕Addison Barger 2023 · AAA	23	45→49	53→55	46→45	39	228/286/397	168	324	21	7	35%	6%	91	+0.7	226/292/382	156	293	18	7	28%	8%	90	+0.6	222/291/386	164	273	18	6	25%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Brendan Rodgers 2020 · MLB	23	50→55	47→50	47→45	41	247/295/386	139	307	15	7	25%	5%	91	+0.7	250/300/391	141	303	15	4	22%	6%	95	+0.9	257/312/394	138	302	14	0	19%	6%	101	+1.0
✕Scott Moore 2008 · MLB	24	45→50	52→55	45→50	42	229/296/398	169	309	20	9	32%	7%	95	+1.0	223/284/375	152	279	17	7	26%	6%	85	+0.2	236/301/378	142	289	16	5	23%	7%	91	+0.5
●Nolan Gorman 2023 · MLB	23	43→46	56→60	50→45	40	230/283/410	180	304	26	6	33%	7%	93	+0.8	222/295/430	208	294	30	7	34%	9%	103	+1.5	212/293/423	210	275	30	6	34%	10%	102	+1.1
✕Blake DeWitt 2009 · MLB	23	51→53	46→50	46→40	48	251/301/383	132	284	14	5	18%	6%	93	+0.8	244/303/372	128	278	10	4	16%	7%	91	+0.6	242/303/370	128	275	9	3	15%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Brett Baty 2024 · MLB	24	50→59	51→50	42→45	45	250/315/406	156	327	20	5	29%	8%	103	+1.6	240/308/395	155	303	20	6	26%	8%	99	+1.2	239/311/392	153	299	20	6	26%	9%	99	+0.9
✕Fernando Martinez 2012 · MLB	23	46→56	49→50	45	40	233/287/379	146	293	17	4	26%	5%	87	+0.4	250/300/407	157	323	18	4	27%	5%	98	+1.2	256/305/419	163	331	19	1	27%	4%	101	+0.9
✕Michael Chavis 2019 · AAA	23	44→46	53→60	48→45	38	231/282/403	172	302	21	5	31%	5%	91	+0.7	236/291/417	181	317	24	6	32%	6%	97	+1.1	229/284/411	182	303	26	5	33%	6%	94	+0.5
✕Jason Martin 2019 · AAA	23	47→52	48→60	47→50	42	236/284/385	149	310	15	12	29%	6%	87	+0.4	231/282/374	143	292	14	12	25%	6%	84	+0.1	226/292/414	187	279	24	8	28%	8%	94	+0.6
✕Joey Bart 2020 · AA	23	43	53→55	45→40	38	228/270/395	166	287	21	7	29%	5%	84	+0.2	235/289/374	139	337	16	5	33%	6%	86	+0.3	251/343/392	142	332	17	1	27%	10%	112	+1.0
✕Isan Díaz 2020 · MLB	24	42→43	50→55	45	44	217/288/375	158	293	18	8	32%	8%	87	+0.4	217/289/371	154	288	18	7	30%	8%	86	+0.3	192/269/361	169	236	25	8	31%	9%	74	-0.2
✕Jordan Diaz 2024 · MLB	23	52→59	51→55	37→30	43	263/303/420	157	304	19	2	20%	5%	103	+1.5	260/310/421	161	307	20	4	22%	6%	105	+1.7	276/327/444	168	323	22	0	21%	6%	113	+1.6
✕Drew Gilbert 2024 · AA	23	49→50	49→50	49→45	47	248/313/399	151	299	17	12	23%	8%	101	+1.4	225/300/374	149	266	16	8	22%	8%	91	+0.7	217/301/368	151	248	17	6	20%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Cody Haerther 2006 · AA	23	51→53	52→50	50→45	41	259/299/432	174	312	20	9	24%	5%	103	+1.6	248/295/383	135	297	13	5	20%	6%	91	+0.6	243/295/362	119	293	10	2	20%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Nick Williams 2018 · MLB	24	51→60	51→55	45	37	253/292/417	164	338	18	7	30%	4%	98	+1.2	243/297/410	167	319	20	5	29%	6%	98	+1.2	233/291/390	157	301	19	5	29%	5%	90	+0.3
✕Leonard Davis 2009 · AAA	25	47→52	54→55	45→50	36	243/278/423	180	311	21	7	29%	4%	94	+0.9	237/274/391	154	306	17	11	28%	4%	84	+0.2	229/266/373	144	296	16	12	28%	4%	74	-0.4
✕Josh Vitters 2013 · MLB	23	46→51	49→50	43→45	42	236/279/386	150	272	17	7	21%	4%	86	+0.3	212/258/340	128	276	15	7	28%	5%	68	-1.0	181/227/284	103	248	14	5	33%	5%	39	-1.4

Manuel Pena

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps