Manuel Pena — OGILVIE

Manuel PenaSS Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 22 L/R 6'0" / 170 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION370 act + 246 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .274 / .415

PA246

HR10

K%29

BB%4

BABIP301

ISO175

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE25

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$15M	+$15M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.5	$15M	+$14M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+2.3	$12M	+$9M
2033	Arb-2	$7M	+2.1	$10M	+$7M
2034	Arb-3	$9M	+1.9	$8M	+$4M
Totals		$24M		$74M	+$62M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL D-backs 1	—	222	206	39	4	2	3	14	67	1	17	7	189	244	272	516	83	263	30	6	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL D-backs 1	—	222	194	49	5	2	4	26	46	1	17	7	253	344	361	705	108	310	21	12	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	2 teams	—	286	263	52	8	3	2	20	98	0	5	4	198	254	274	528	76	303	34	7	237	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	2 teams	—	286	253	67	10	4	4	30	71	0	5	4	265	343	383	726	119	350	25	10	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+	2 teams	—	466	434	82	14	7	4	23	160	4	13	10	189	236	281	518	92	285	34	5	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+	2 teams	—	466	421	103	19	8	5	36	117	4	13	10	245	310	363	674	119	323	25	8	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	491	466	89	17	1	4	18	160	3	10	10	191	226	258	483	67	280	33	4	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	491	451	124	27	2	4	33	106	3	10	10	275	329	370	699	95	350	22	7	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	2 teams	—	558	528	111	21	3	8	20	171	3	3	5	210	243	307	550	97	289	31	4	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	2 teams	—	558	518	143	28	3	16	30	126	3	3	5	276	319	434	754	158	332	23	5	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AA	ARI	—	370	346	92	13	0	25	17	108	1	6	0	266	302	520	822	254	306	29	5	349	125	+10	+1	+0	+4	+10	2.7
YTD	22	AA	ARI	—	370	337	106	16	0	29	24	84	1	6	0	315	360	620	980	306	335	23	6	415	176	+32	+1	+0	+4	+10	4.8
ROS	22	AA	ARI	2%	246	233	56	9	1	10	10	72	1	4	1	240	274	415	689	175	295	29	4	300	87	-4	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.7
ROS	22	MLB	ARI	2%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		298	20	0	300	88	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	22	AA	ARI	—	375	351	93	13	0	25	17	109	1	6	0	265	301	516	816	251	305	29	5	348	124	+10	+1	+0	+4	+11	2.7
TOT	22	AA	ARI	—	616	579	148	22	1	35	27	180	2	10	1	255	291	478	769	223	304	29	4	329	110	+7	+2	+0	+7	+17	3.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	ARI	35%	581	548	132	22	2	24	25	168	3	8	3	241	278	420	697	179	298	29	4	304	91	-6	+0	+0	+6	+16	1.7
2028	24	MLB	ARI	47%	609	572	138	23	2	25	29	171	3	8	3	241	281	420	701	178	299	28	5	310	95	-3	+0	+0	+7	+17	2.1
2029	25	MLB	ARI	52%	627	587	143	24	2	26	32	173	3	9	3	244	286	424	710	181	299	28	5	313	98	-2	+1	+0	+7	+18	2.4
2030	26	MLB	ARI	54%	627	585	144	24	2	27	33	172	4	9	3	246	291	432	723	186	298	27	5	314	99	-1	+1	+0	+7	+18	2.5
2031	27	MLB	ARI	54%	622	580	142	24	2	26	33	171	4	9	3	245	290	428	718	183	298	27	5	315	99	-1	+1	+0	+7	+18	2.5
2032	28	MLB	ARI	54%	614	573	139	23	2	26	33	170	3	8	3	243	287	426	713	183	298	28	5	314	98	-1	+0	-1	+7	+17	2.3
2033	29	MLB	ARI	53%	605	564	137	23	2	25	33	169	3	8	3	243	288	424	712	181	298	28	5	312	97	-2	+0	-1	+6	+17	2.1
2034	30	MLB	ARI	52%	595	554	133	22	2	24	33	167	3	8	3	240	286	417	703	177	297	28	6	309	95	-3	+0	-2	+6	+17	1.9
2035	31	MLB	ARI	52%	584	544	129	21	2	23	32	166	3	8	3	237	283	410	693	173	295	28	5	306	92	-5	+0	-3	+6	+17	1.5
2036	32	MLB	ARI	52%	573	534	124	20	1	22	31	165	3	7	3	232	278	397	675	165	292	29	5	300	88	-8	+0	-4	+6	+16	1.1
2037	33	MLB	ARI	52%	516	481	109	17	1	19	28	151	2	6	2	227	272	385	657	158	288	29	5	293	83	-10	+0	-4	+6	+15	0.6
2038	34	MLB	ARI	47%	468	438	97	15	1	17	25	140	2	6	2	221	267	377	643	155	282	30	5	285	76	-13	+0	-5	+5	+13	0.1
2039	35	MLB	ARI	43%	414	387	83	12	1	14	22	127	2	5	2	214	260	359	620	145	276	31	5	274	68	-15	+0	-6	+4	+12	-0.4
2027	23	MLB	ARI	35%	204	192	48	8	1	9	9	59	1	3	1	250	287	443	730	193	301	29	4	304	91	-2	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.6
2028	24	MLB	ARI	47%	283	266	65	11	1	12	14	79	1	4	1	244	285	429	713	184	301	28	5	309	95	-2	+0	+0	+3	+8	1.0
2029	25	MLB	ARI	52%	325	304	75	13	1	14	16	90	2	4	2	247	289	434	723	188	301	28	5	312	97	-1	+0	+0	+3	+9	1.2
2030	26	MLB	ARI	54%	340	317	78	13	1	15	18	93	2	5	2	246	291	435	726	189	301	27	5	314	98	-1	+0	+0	+4	+10	1.3
2031	27	MLB	ARI	54%	338	315	78	13	1	15	18	93	2	5	2	248	293	438	731	190	301	28	5	314	98	-1	+0	+0	+4	+10	1.3
2032	28	MLB	ARI	54%	333	310	76	13	1	14	18	92	2	5	2	245	291	429	720	184	301	28	5	313	98	-1	+0	-0	+4	+9	1.2
2033	29	MLB	ARI	53%	321	298	73	12	1	14	18	89	2	4	1	245	292	433	725	188	300	28	6	311	96	-1	+0	-1	+3	+9	1.1
2034	30	MLB	ARI	52%	312	290	71	12	1	13	17	88	2	4	1	245	291	428	719	183	299	28	5	309	95	-2	+0	-1	+3	+9	1.0
2035	31	MLB	ARI	52%	304	282	67	11	1	12	17	86	2	4	1	238	286	411	697	174	297	28	6	305	92	-3	+0	-1	+3	+9	0.8
2036	32	MLB	ARI	52%	297	278	66	11	1	12	16	86	1	4	1	237	281	414	695	176	294	29	5	300	88	-4	+0	-2	+3	+8	0.6
2037	33	MLB	ARI	52%	267	250	57	9	1	10	14	78	1	3	1	228	272	392	664	164	290	29	5	293	82	-5	+0	-2	+3	+8	0.3
2038	34	MLB	ARI	47%	221	206	47	7	1	8	12	66	1	3	1	228	274	388	662	160	285	30	5	284	76	-6	+0	-2	+2	+6	0.0
2039	35	MLB	ARI	43%	177	165	35	5	0	6	9	54	1	2	1	212	257	352	609	139	279	31	5	274	68	-6	+0	-2	+2	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3727	3478	837	138	12	154	196	1054	20	50	17	241	285	420	705	179	298	28	5	305	92	-35	+3	-12	+40	+106	10.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	607	146	24	2	27	34	184	3	9	3	241	284	420	704	180	298	28	5	305	92	-6	+1	-2	+7	+18	1.8
Career	—			—	9704	9077	2079	343	39	329	494	2838	50	151	73	229	273	384	657	155	293	29	5	289	80	-224	+1	-25	+104	+275	13.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	608	140	23	3	22	33	190	3	10	5	230	273	387	660	156	295	29	5	289	80	-15	+0	-2	+7	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL D-backs 1	—	222	194	49	5	2	4	26	46	1	17	7	253	344	361	705	108	310	21	12	321	104	+1	+1	—	—	+6	0.8
2022	18	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	158	137	34	7	1	0	20	41	0	1	3	248	344	314	658	66	354	26	13	304	91	-2	-1	—	—	+4	0.2
2022	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	128	116	33	3	3	4	10	30	0	4	1	284	341	466	807	181	345	23	8	350	126	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2023	19	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	237	215	52	10	4	4	17	59	2	5	5	242	303	381	685	140	312	25	7	303	90	-3	-1	—	—	+7	0.3
2023	19	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	229	206	51	9	4	1	19	58	2	8	5	248	317	345	662	97	336	25	8	298	86	-4	-0	—	—	+6	0.3
2024	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	491	451	124	27	2	4	33	106	3	10	10	275	329	370	699	95	350	22	7	313	98	-1	-2	—	—	+14	1.1
2025	21	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	470	437	126	27	3	14	24	105	3	2	2	288	330	460	790	172	346	22	5	344	122	+11	-0	—	—	+13	2.5
2025	21	INTL	Toros del Este	—	88	81	17	1	0	2	6	21	0	1	3	210	264	296	561	86	254	24	7	253	52	-5	-1	—	—	+2	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#3Evan Gattislast yr '18 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,662 PA	6	2,662	139	3	248	300	476	+30	+20	17.0	17.0
	/162	664	35	1	248	300	476	+7.6	+4.9	4.2	pk7: 17
#4Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#5Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	8	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
	/162	664	17	4	246	300	398	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	3,728	151	49	239	281	415	+37	+18	10.8	9.5
	/162	664	27	9	239	281	415	+6.6	+3.2	1.9	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Pena (OGILVIE)	22	55	50	45	25	255/291/478	223	304	35	10	29%	4%	110	+3.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕José Tena 2023 · AAA	22	45→55	45→50	46→55	34	220/254/345	125	315	12	8	34%	4%	62	-0.9	236/286/362	126	344	12	16	33%	6%	80	+0.4	246/301/380	134	335	13	21	29%	7%	87	+0.6
●Jorge Alfaro 2015 · AA	22	41→51	46→50	48→50	33	206/258/338	132	303	13	8	36%	4%	63	-0.9	214/257/335	121	321	12	5	36%	4%	61	-1.0	261/317/415	154	383	20	6	35%	5%	101	+1.0
●Oneil Cruz 2021 · AA	22	47→53	45→60	50→60	37	227/271/355	128	327	12	11	34%	6%	72	-0.2	236/293/431	195	313	24	20	31%	7%	102	+1.8	242/304/444	202	319	24	22	31%	8%	105	+1.7
✕Jason Martin 2018 · AA	22	42→49	48→60	48→50	39	213/261/358	145	293	15	13	32%	6%	68	-0.5	229/276/372	143	298	14	12	27%	6%	78	+0.2	220/286/421	201	269	27	8	29%	8%	94	+0.8
✕Brendan Rodgers 2019 · AAA	22	45→50	46→50	47→45	38	225/268/351	125	282	13	8	25%	4%	69	-0.4	231/278/358	127	290	14	6	24%	5%	76	+0.0	236/292/359	123	281	13	0	20%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Ronny Rodríguez 2014 · AA	22	42→52	46→55	49→50	36	215/239/343	128	263	13	9	24%	3%	54	-1.4	215/242/340	125	271	13	7	26%	3%	55	-1.4	256/283/425	169	304	22	13	23%	3%	93	+1.0
✕Nick Williams 2017 · AAA	23	47→57	48→55	45	35	236/266/381	145	313	15	8	29%	3%	76	+0.1	242/290/406	164	320	20	6	30%	5%	94	+1.3	241/297/414	173	319	22	4	30%	5%	96	+1.1
✕Keury De La Cruz 2015 · AA	23	45→49	44→50	46→50	35	224/251/343	119	299	12	10	29%	3%	59	-1.1	216/247/318	102	293	10	8	29%	4%	51	-1.7	207/234/297	89	279	8	6	29%	3%	36	-1.3
●Eric Sogard 2008 · A	22	45→55	42→45	46→55	43	221/269/323	102	269	11	9	22%	6%	63	-0.9	253/312/360	107	286	8	10	14%	8%	90	+1.0	260/322/363	103	292	7	10	13%	8%	92	+1.1
✕Chris Owings 2013 · AA	21	43→53	43→50	47→55	34	215/242/326	112	286	11	8	29%	3%	51	-1.7	242/274/349	107	312	8	15	24%	4%	70	-0.3	248/291/379	130	306	10	21	22%	5%	81	+0.3
●Josh VanMeter 2017 · AA	22	42→47	44→55	46→50	46	211/265/324	113	252	13	8	22%	7%	61	-1.0	219/271/343	124	274	12	12	24%	7%	69	-0.4	229/304/413	184	278	20	12	24%	9%	99	+1.3
●Mat Gamel 2006 · A	21	46→56	42→50	46→45	35	219/262/325	106	321	9	8	34%	5%	60	-1.0	245/292/383	138	311	13	7	24%	6%	88	+0.9	256/305/408	152	322	14	7	24%	6%	100	+1.6
✕Welington Castillo 2010 · AA	23	44→54	44→55	45→30	36	222/258/336	114	289	13	3	28%	4%	62	-0.9	225/278/395	170	281	22	3	28%	5%	86	+0.8	252/308/433	181	306	25	1	26%	7%	105	+1.4
●Ryan McMahon 2017 · AA	22	46→56	48→55	43→45	38	223/279/375	152	330	15	7	36%	6%	81	+0.4	236/290/378	142	323	14	8	30%	7%	86	+0.8	233/294/378	145	309	16	7	28%	7%	85	+0.6
✕Yairo Muñoz 2017 · AA	22	42→52	42→50	44→55	39	208/244/306	98	260	10	7	24%	4%	47	-1.9	246/286/376	130	305	14	14	23%	5%	83	+0.6	262/304/399	137	319	15	17	22%	5%	91	+0.7
✕Anthony Hatch 2006 · A	22	42→50	45→50	46→40	38	212/259/343	131	291	12	4	31%	5%	64	-0.8	230/285/374	144	281	14	5	23%	6%	83	+0.6	228/285/372	144	274	14	3	22%	6%	79	+0.2
●Cheslor Cuthbert 2015 · AAA	22	45→55	42→50	45	43	221/263/328	107	271	10	8	22%	5%	61	-1.0	246/289/372	126	292	13	5	20%	6%	84	+0.6	258/310/406	148	301	17	1	20%	7%	100	+0.9
●Oscar Gonzalez 2021 · AA	23	49→56	44→55	43→40	36	243/265/354	111	305	12	6	25%	3%	68	-0.5	261/289/436	175	315	22	3	24%	3%	102	+1.8	262/291/437	175	316	22	1	24%	3%	99	+1.5
●Jesús Sánchez 2020 · AAA	22	47→54	46→60	44→50	39	234/274/360	126	303	14	6	28%	5%	74	-0.1	242/298/417	175	311	22	5	28%	7%	100	+1.7	256/323/468	211	319	26	4	27%	8%	119	+2.3
●Juan Francisco 2009 · A	22	43→51	50→60	44→40	30	223/242/374	151	309	18	4	34%	2%	65	-0.7	250/277/431	181	325	21	4	29%	3%	95	+1.4	259/288/453	194	328	23	3	28%	3%	102	+1.5