Manuel Pena — OGILVIE

Manuel PenaSS Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 22 L/R 6'0" / 170 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2031

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .245 / .305

PA320

HR5

K%31

BB%4

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

50→50

SPD

45→45

EYE

35↘25

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.8M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.3	$2M	+$0.0M
Totals		$7M		$18M	+$10M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL D-backs 1	222	205	38	4	2	3	15	67	1	17	7	.185	.244	.268	.513	.083	.257	30	7	.227	32	-17	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.8
2022	18	A	2 teams	286	264	52	8	3	2	19	98	0	5	4	.197	.251	.273	.524	.076	.301	34	7	.237	39	-20	-1	+0	+3	+8	-0.9
2023	19	A+	2 teams	466	434	83	14	7	4	23	161	4	13	10	.191	.239	.283	.522	.092	.289	35	5	.230	35	-34	-1	+0	+5	+13	-1.8
2024	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	491	465	93	18	1	4	19	155	3	10	10	.200	.236	.269	.505	.069	.289	32	4	.219	26	-41	-2	+0	+5	+14	-2.4
2025	21	AA	2 teams	558	528	118	23	3	11	20	167	3	3	5	.223	.256	.341	.597	.117	.300	30	4	.258	56	-28	-1	+0	+6	+16	-0.8
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	78	77	21	5	0	7	1	26	0	0	0	.273	.282	.610	.892	.338	.318	33	1	.362	135	+3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.6
ROS	22	MLB	ARI	242	230	50	10	1	6	9	76	1	2	2	.217	.250	.348	.598	.130	.294	31	4	.265	61	-11	-0	+0	+3	+7	-0.2
TOT	22	MLB	ARI	320	307	71	15	1	13	10	102	1	2	2	.231	.258	.414	.672	.182	.301	32	3	.288	79	-8	-0	+0	+3	+9	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 12%	ARI	529	497	109	21	3	11	24	152	3	5	4	.219	.260	.340	.600	.121	.288	29	5	.264	60	-24	-1	+0	+6	+15	-0.4
2028	24	MLB 27%	ARI	565	529	118	23	3	13	28	157	3	6	4	.223	.266	.352	.618	.129	.290	28	5	.276	69	-20	-0	+0	+6	+16	0.2
2029	25	MLB 44%	ARI	587	546	125	24	3	15	32	161	4	6	4	.229	.277	.366	.643	.137	.291	27	5	.284	75	-16	-0	+0	+6	+17	0.6
2030	26	MLB 59%	ARI	598	555	127	24	3	16	34	163	4	6	4	.229	.278	.369	.648	.141	.292	27	6	.288	78	-15	-0	+0	+6	+17	0.8
2031	27	MLB 77%	ARI	600	556	127	24	3	16	35	164	4	6	4	.228	.279	.369	.648	.140	.292	27	6	.288	78	-15	-0	+0	+6	+17	0.9
2032	28	MLB 84%	ARI	597	553	126	24	3	16	35	165	4	5	3	.228	.279	.369	.648	.141	.292	28	6	.287	78	-15	-0	-1	+6	+17	0.7
2033	29	MLB 91%	ARI	588	544	123	23	3	15	35	164	4	3	3	.226	.278	.362	.640	.136	.291	28	6	.285	76	-16	-1	-1	+6	+17	0.5
2034	30	MLB	ARI	578	535	121	23	3	15	34	163	4	2	2	.226	.277	.364	.642	.138	.290	28	6	.282	74	-17	-0	-2	+6	+16	0.3
2035	31	MLB	ARI	564	523	116	22	2	14	33	161	3	0	1	.222	.272	.352	.624	.130	.289	29	6	.278	71	-18	-0	-3	+6	+16	0.0
2036	32	MLB	ARI	546	506	111	21	2	13	32	159	3	0	0	.219	.270	.346	.616	.126	.288	29	6	.274	68	-20	+0	-4	+6	+15	-0.2
2037	33	MLB	ARI	516	478	103	19	2	12	30	154	3	0	0	.215	.266	.339	.605	.123	.287	30	6	.268	64	-21	+0	-4	+6	+15	-0.5
2038	34	MLB	ARI	468	436	92	17	2	10	27	143	2	0	0	.211	.260	.328	.588	.117	.286	31	6	.262	59	-22	+0	-5	+5	+13	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9001	8384	1832	342	49	196	484	2630	53	89	67	.219	.266	.341	.607	.123	.292	29	5	.268	64	-370	-9	-20	+96	+255	-4.8
/ 162G	—			650	605	133	25	4	14	35	190	4	6	5	.220	.267	.344	.611	.124	.294	29	5	.268	64	-27	-1	-1	+7	+18	-0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL D-backs 1	222	194	49	5	2	4	26	46	1	17	7	.253	.344	.361	.705	.108	.310	21	12	.321	104	+1	+1	—	—	+6	0.8
2022	18	A	Visalia Rawhide	158	137	34	7	1	0	20	41	0	1	3	.248	.344	.314	.658	.066	.354	26	13	.304	91	-2	-1	—	—	+4	0.2
2022	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	128	116	33	3	3	4	10	30	0	4	1	.284	.341	.466	.807	.181	.345	23	8	.350	126	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2023	19	A+	Hillsboro Hops	237	215	52	10	4	4	17	59	2	5	5	.242	.303	.381	.685	.140	.312	25	7	.303	90	-3	-1	—	—	+7	0.3
2023	19	A	Visalia Rawhide	229	206	51	9	4	1	19	58	2	8	5	.248	.317	.345	.662	.097	.336	25	8	.298	86	-4	-0	—	—	+6	0.3
2024	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	491	451	124	27	2	4	33	106	3	10	10	.275	.329	.370	.699	.095	.350	22	7	.313	98	-1	-2	—	—	+14	1.1
2025	21	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	470	437	126	27	3	14	24	105	3	2	2	.288	.330	.460	.790	.172	.346	22	5	.344	122	+11	-0	—	—	+13	2.5
2025	21	INTL	Toros del Este	88	81	17	1	0	2	6	21	0	1	3	.210	.264	.296	.561	.086	.254	24	7	.253	52	-5	-1	—	—	+2	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Pena (OGILVIE)	22	55	50	45	25	.207/.245/.305	.098	.292	5	3	31%	4%	48	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Luis 2022 · A	22	44→53	40→45	46→40	40	.212/.259/.304	.091	.298	7	6	30%	6%	53	-1.5	.232/.281/.330	.098	.311	8	3	26%	6%	69	-0.4	.234/.283/.329	.095	.308	9	1	26%	6%	67	-0.4
✕José Tena 2023 · AAA	22	46→54	45	46→55	34	.227/.261/.354	.128	.322	13	8	33%	4%	67	-0.5	.238/.286/.362	.124	.345	12	15	32%	6%	80	+0.4	.244/.300/.367	.123	.348	11	21	31%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Lenyn Sosa 2022 · AA	22	42→51	42→55	39→40	35	.209/.236/.312	.103	.276	10	5	28%	3%	45	-2.1	.237/.271/.376	.139	.290	18	4	24%	4%	77	+0.1	.240/.270/.395	.155	.284	22	3	24%	3%	79	+0.2
✕Rubel Cespedes 2023 · A	22	44→47	40→45	46→40	37	.210/.260/.305	.094	.307	8	5	33%	5%	53	-1.5	.213/.265/.327	.114	.290	11	4	29%	6%	62	-0.9	.207/.261/.323	.116	.270	12	3	27%	6%	56	-0.9
✕Ryan Goins 2010 · A	22	43→53	39→45	45	40	.205/.256/.288	.083	.299	6	8	32%	6%	47	-1.9	.235/.281/.321	.086	.307	4	6	23%	6%	66	-0.6	.258/.296/.361	.103	.320	7	6	21%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Adam Haseley 2018 · A	22	45→55	43→45	47→50	42	.223/.271/.333	.110	.288	10	7	26%	6%	66	-0.6	.253/.304/.366	.113	.313	11	7	22%	6%	89	+0.9	.247/.299/.355	.109	.304	12	9	22%	6%	80	+0.3
✕Matt Mangini 2009 · AA	23	40→50	41→45	45	38	.197/.254/.290	.093	.285	10	5	33%	6%	49	-1.8	.236/.281/.353	.117	.313	12	7	27%	5%	76	+0.0	.258/.299/.378	.121	.331	12	6	25%	5%	85	+0.5
✕Anthony Hatch 2006 · A	22	43→51	45→50	46→40	38	.213/.261/.341	.128	.293	12	5	31%	5%	64	-0.8	.230/.286/.375	.145	.280	14	5	22%	6%	84	+0.6	.230/.287/.373	.143	.275	14	3	22%	6%	80	+0.3
✕Cal Mitchell 2021 · A	22	42→52	43→50	42→50	35	.205/.249/.315	.110	.304	11	4	35%	5%	52	-1.6	.236/.281/.367	.131	.301	14	8	26%	5%	79	+0.3	.240/.288/.371	.132	.301	15	9	25%	5%	81	+0.3
✕Chris Owings 2013 · AA	21	44→54	44→50	46→55	34	.219/.245/.335	.116	.292	12	8	30%	3%	55	-1.4	.242/.273/.352	.110	.313	9	14	25%	4%	71	-0.3	.250/.293/.380	.129	.309	10	21	22%	5%	82	+0.3
✕Logan Schafer 2009 · A	22	43→53	39→45	41→50	38	.211/.248/.303	.092	.283	6	8	28%	4%	47	-1.9	.246/.295/.349	.103	.295	6	11	18%	6%	79	+0.3	.253/.303/.365	.112	.292	7	15	15%	5%	84	+0.5
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2023 · A	22	44→52	43→50	47→50	40	.213/.269/.326	.114	.311	9	8	33%	6%	63	-0.8	.216/.268/.331	.115	.312	10	8	32%	6%	64	-0.8	.217/.268/.335	.119	.307	10	9	31%	5%	62	-0.7
✕Raynel Delgado 2022 · A	22	38→48	40→45	47→60	36	.188/.241/.276	.088	.286	8	13	36%	6%	39	-2.5	.212/.279/.309	.097	.297	8	17	29%	7%	63	-0.8	.240/.303/.338	.098	.325	8	32	27%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Luis Liberato 2018 · A	22	43→51	44→50	50	40	.209/.260/.333	.124	.300	10	7	33%	6%	61	-1.0	.216/.262/.350	.134	.285	15	7	29%	6%	67	-0.5	.210/.278/.360	.150	.290	16	9	32%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Sterlin Thompson 2023 · A	22	47→46	41→50	51→50	35	.222/.270/.323	.101	.337	9	9	35%	5%	63	-0.8	.225/.283/.357	.132	.297	14	12	28%	6%	79	+0.3	.221/.287/.361	.141	.290	15	13	28%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Jose Castaneda 2007 · AAA	22	43→49	42→45	47→40	36	.212/.249/.315	.103	.293	10	10	31%	4%	52	-1.6	.232/.288/.317	.085	.289	7	8	21%	6%	69	-0.4	.247/.294/.345	.098	.323	9	2	25%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Drew Ward 2017 · AA	22	44	43→55	40→30	38	.211/.267/.318	.107	.319	11	2	36%	6%	61	-1.0	.214/.279/.337	.123	.326	14	2	36%	8%	71	-0.3	.203/.270/.362	.159	.317	20	1	40%	7%	71	-0.2
✕Dean Anna 2009 · A	22	44→54	40→45	50→45	39	.212/.256/.300	.088	.287	7	7	28%	5%	50	-1.7	.213/.279/.310	.097	.269	7	6	22%	8%	64	-0.8	.245/.318/.360	.115	.284	9	4	16%	8%	92	+1.0
✕T.J. Schofield-Sam 2023 · A	22	45→47	41→45	46→40	38	.218/.269/.319	.102	.287	8	6	26%	4%	62	-0.9	.215/.267/.307	.092	.286	7	5	26%	4%	58	-1.2	.209/.265/.292	.083	.281	6	3	26%	4%	51	-1.3
●Stephen Parker 2010 · A	22	44→53	41→45	41→40	42	.216/.267/.316	.099	.285	9	5	27%	6%	59	-1.1	.239/.300/.366	.127	.307	12	3	25%	8%	87	+0.8	.238/.300/.361	.123	.308	12	3	25%	7%	84	+0.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)