Sem Robberse
P
Palm Beach Cardinals
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION9 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126116vR 107
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
K%21.2%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 5 | 3 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 60% | 2.1 | 22.0% | 0.0% | 22.0% | 0.0% | 0.87 | 1.25 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 5 | 3 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 60% | 2.1 | 22.0% | 0.0% | 22.0% | 0.0% | 0.87 | 1.36 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 89 | 389 | 90 | 38 | 7 | 90% | 4.2 | 17.3% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 4.36 | 4.44 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 89 | 389 | 90 | 38 | 7 | 90% | 4.2 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 1.8% | 4.36 | 3.38 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 111 | 462 | 97 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 3.23 | 4.47 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 111 | 462 | 97 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 3.23 | 3.56 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 124 | 540 | 130 | 57 | 20 | 96% | 4.8 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 4.28 | 5.29 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 124 | 540 | 130 | 57 | 20 | 96% | 4.8 | 24.1% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 3.7% | 4.28 | 4.48 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 90 | 373 | 80 | 28 | 13 | 89% | 4.8 | 19.2% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 4.38 | 4.68 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 90 | 373 | 80 | 28 | 13 | 89% | 4.8 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.13 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 4 | 4 | 15 | 77 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 3.7 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 7.36 | 4.78 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 4 | 4 | 15 | 77 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 3.7 | 24.7% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 2.6% | 7.36 | 3.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 5 | 5 | 9 | 37 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.2% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.71 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 74 | 311 | 67 | 25 | 10 | — | — | 21.6% | 8.0% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.14 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 109 | 461 | 104 | 40 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.5% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 119 | 44 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 14.8% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.42 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 123 | 521 | 121 | 44 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 123 | 521 | 120 | 45 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 118 | 497 | 113 | 44 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 4.59 | 4.66 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 111 | 467 | 105 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 3.8% | 4.74 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 103 | 436 | 96 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 4.92 | 5.04 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 96 | 403 | 87 | 40 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 4.3% | 5.12 | 5.26 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 45 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 79 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 14.8% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.42 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 93 | 34 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 101 | 38 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 99 | 39 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 4.59 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 94 | 38 | 16 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 3.8% | 4.73 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 87 | 38 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 4.91 | 5.03 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 80 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 4.3% | 5.11 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 119 | 119 | 711 | 3003 | 679 | 271 | 110 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 3.7% | 4.67 | 4.34 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 76 | 31 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 3.7% | 4.67 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 102 | 95 | 448 | 1919 | 358 | 183 | 67 | 93% | 4.4 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.12 | 4.64 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 42 | 200 | 856 | 160 | 82 | 30 | 93% | 4.4 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.12 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sem Robberse (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 3.4% | — | 4.46 | 23.0% | 14.4% | 354 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 86 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 86 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 85 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 85 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 84 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .278 | 5.41 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.96 | 260 | 84 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 3.8% | .304 | 5.34 | 18.0% | 6.5% | 170 | +0.51 | 3.81 | 527 | 83 |
| Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 83 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.02 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 4.6% | .279 | 5.06 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 160 | +0.04 | 5.01 | 282 | 83 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 82 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.28 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.36 | 3.41 | 368 | 82 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 82 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.63 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 79 | -0.22 | 3.48 | 331 | 82 |
| Edison Frias R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.15 | 13.7% | 3.5% | 166 | -0.81 | 4.15 | 279 | 82 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 81 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 81 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 81 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 81 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 81 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.20 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.07 | 1.96 | 352 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 110 | 22.5% | 9.0% | 1.39 | 4.66 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |