Sem Robberse
P
Memphis Redbirds
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.0%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 5 | 3 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.87 | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 21 | 19 | 89 | 389 | 90 | 38 | 7 | 17.3% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 20 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 22 | 22 | 111 | 462 | 97 | 34 | 11 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 3.23 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 21 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 26 | 25 | 124 | 540 | 130 | 57 | 20 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 4.4% | 4.28 | 5.26 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 19 | 17 | 90 | 373 | 80 | 28 | 13 | 19.2% | 8.1% | 4.1% | 4.38 | 4.73 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 4 | 4 | 15 | 77 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 7.36 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | STL | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 21.4% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 37 | 15 | 6 | 22.0% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 22.4% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | STL | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | STL | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | STL | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | STL | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | STL | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.88 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | STL | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 4.98 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | STL | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 5.10 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 97 | 90 | 439 | 1882 | 349 | 183 | 65 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.08 | 4.66 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 41 | 200 | 857 | 159 | 83 | 30 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.08 | 4.66 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sem Robberse (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 21.4% | 9.5% | 3.4% | — | 4.57 | 22.2% | 13.1% | 120 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 93 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 91 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 91 |
| Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 89 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 89 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 89 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 89 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .371 | 4.34 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 128 | +0.14 | 3.89 | 176 | 88 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.37 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.86 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.49 | 4.37 | 412 | 87 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 87 |
| Micah Dallas R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .273 | 3.61 | 17.5% | 9.0% | 50 | -0.48 | 3.61 | 147 | 87 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 87 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 3.68 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | -0.06 | 3.68 | 118 | 87 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 87 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .239 | 5.62 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.91 | 3.71 | 325 | 87 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 87 |
| Justin Sterner R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.63 | 26.6% | 17.2% | 142 | -0.18 | 3.97 | 252 | 87 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 86 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 86 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.02 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .175 | 3.91 | 21.3% | 9.7% | 195 | -0.11 | 3.66 | 242 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $5M | $4M | -$0.6M | ||