Sem Robberse

P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#288ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	19	17	90	4.38	4.13	21.4%	7.5%	—	K 18.8% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.61
2025	23	AAASTL	4	4	15	7.36	3.92	24.7%	10.4%	—	K 21.2% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.30
2026	24	MIX2 levels	5	5	9	6.00	2.54	24.3%	0.0%	—	K 24.3% · BB 0.0% · FIP 2.53
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	—	—	0	4.42	4.42	21.0%	8.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSTL	10	10	62	4.25	4.23	21.7%	7.9%	0.8
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSTL	13	13	77	4.25	4.26	21.7%	8.0%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$2M2033Ext$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 9.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsBrian Edgington (age 25) · Riley Gowens (age 24) · Trevor Martin (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%21.0%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP144

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	5	3	10	41	9	0	0	60%	2.1	22.0%	0.0%	22.0%	0.0%	0.87	1.25	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	5	3	10	41	9	0	0	60%	2.1	22.0%	0.0%	22.0%	0.0%	0.87	1.36	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	89	389	90	38	7	90%	4.2	17.3%	11.4%	6.0%	2.4%	4.36	4.39	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	89	389	90	38	7	90%	4.2	23.1%	9.8%	13.4%	1.8%	4.36	3.38	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	462	97	34	11	100%	5.1	16.3%	8.4%	8.0%	3.0%	3.23	4.43	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	111	462	97	34	11	100%	5.1	21.0%	7.4%	13.6%	2.4%	3.23	3.56	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	124	540	130	57	20	96%	4.8	19.9%	10.7%	9.2%	4.4%	4.28	5.19	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	124	540	130	57	20	96%	4.8	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	3.7%	4.28	4.48	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	90	373	80	28	13	89%	4.8	18.8%	7.0%	11.8%	4.0%	4.38	4.61	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	90	373	80	28	13	89%	4.8	18.8%	7.0%	11.8%	4.0%	4.38	4.61	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	90	373	80	28	13	89%	4.8	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.5%	4.38	4.13	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	4	4	15	77	19	8	2	100%	3.7	21.2%	9.4%	11.9%	3.3%	7.36	4.30	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	4	4	15	77	19	8	2	100%	3.7	21.2%	9.4%	11.9%	3.3%	7.36	4.30	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	4	4	15	77	19	8	2	100%	3.7	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	2.6%	7.36	3.92	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	9	37	9	0	1	100%	1.8	24.3%	0.0%	24.3%	2.7%	6.00	2.53	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	9	37	9	0	1	100%	1.8	24.3%	0.0%	24.3%	2.7%	6.00	2.53	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	9	37	9	0	1	100%	1.8	24.3%	0.0%	24.3%	2.7%	6.00	2.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.0%	8.0%	13.1%	3.1%	4.42	4.42	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	144	608	132	48	19	100%	6.0	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.37	4.35	+1.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	124	521	113	41	16	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.0%	13.8%	3.1%	4.37	4.38	+1.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	119	502	108	41	16	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.1%	13.5%	3.2%	4.42	4.46	+1.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	110	465	100	39	16	100%	6.1	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	3.4%	4.51	4.58	+1.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	100	423	89	36	15	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.6%	12.4%	3.6%	4.66	4.76	+0.7
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	89	377	78	34	14	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.0%	11.7%	3.8%	4.84	4.96	+0.5
2034	32	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	79	332	67	31	13	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.4%	10.8%	4.1%	5.05	5.19	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	62	262	57	21	8	100%	6.2	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	2.9%	4.25	4.23	+0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	77	325	71	26	10	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.0%	13.8%	2.9%	4.25	4.26	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	89	376	81	30	11	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.1%	13.5%	3.0%	4.30	4.34	+1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	90	380	81	32	12	100%	6.0	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	3.1%	4.38	4.45	+0.9
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	86	363	76	31	12	100%	6.1	21.1%	8.6%	12.4%	3.3%	4.52	4.62	+0.6
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	79	334	69	30	12	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.0%	11.7%	3.5%	4.69	4.81	+0.4
2034	32	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	71	300	61	28	11	100%	5.9	20.2%	9.4%	10.8%	3.8%	4.89	5.03	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	92	554	2339	496	198	76	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.15	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	179	71	27	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.15	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		102	95	448	1919	355	174	65	93%	4.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	3.4%	4.12	4.56	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	42	200	856	158	78	29	93%	4.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	3.4%	4.12	4.56	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 6 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.12 (+1.18)K% 25.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.740	19.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.81%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 15 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.30 (+0.54)K% 24.7% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.68%	—	×0.860	21.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.39%	—	×0.900	9.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷0.869	×1.100	3.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 84 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.61 (+0.32)K% 21.8% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.84%	—	×0.860	18.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.76%	—	×0.900	6.98%
HR / BF /BF	3.74%	÷1.020	×1.100	4.03%

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 6 IPFIP 2.26 → 2.70 (+0.44)K% 16.0% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.00%	—	×0.740	11.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.180	4.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.036	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.26 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 89 IPFIP 4.34 → 5.23 (+0.90)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.12%	—	×0.810	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.87%	—	×1.100	9.76%
HR / BF /BF	3.76%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.51%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.34 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 35 IPFIP 4.66 → 5.08 (+0.43)K% 26.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.19%	—	×0.860	22.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷0.955	×1.100	4.11%

Result: FIP 4.66 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Vancouver Canadians · 87 IPFIP 3.18 → 4.07 (+0.89)K% 21.8% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.79%	—	×0.770	16.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.70%	—	×1.150	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷0.952	×1.250	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.18 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 25 IPFIP 4.89 → 5.66 (+0.77)K% 18.3% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.27%	—	×0.810	14.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×1.100	10.58%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.027	×1.200	4.50%

Result: FIP 4.89 → 5.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sem Robberse (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.39	21.7%	13.7%	386	-0.03	—	—	—
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	85
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	84
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	82
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	81
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	81
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	81
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	81
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	81
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	80
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	80
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	80
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	80
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	80
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	80
Rhett Lowder R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	19.3%	7.3%	1.7%	.301	4.33	17.1%	8.0%	133	+0.97	3.36	267	80
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	79
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	79
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	79
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	114	21.3%	8.3%	1.30	4.54
Rubby De La Rosa ('17)	2.1	105	19.6%	8.6%	1.32	4.49
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Larry McWilliams ('78-'90, 10 WAR*)	7.8	130	19.0%*	8.1%*	1.24*	4.56*
Marco Estrada ('19)	6.3	139	21.0%	7.6%	1.43	4.29
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71