Sem Robberse — OGILVIE

Sem Robberse P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.2 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 144 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%21.6%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%13.7%

ROS IP144

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD4555

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	5	3	10	41	9	0	0	60%	2.1	22.0%	0.0%	22.0%	0.0%	0.87	1.25	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	5	3	10	41	9	0	0	60%	2.1	22.0%	0.0%	22.0%	0.0%	0.87	1.36	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	89	389	90	38	7	90%	4.2	17.3%	11.4%	6.0%	2.4%	4.36	4.39	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	89	389	90	38	7	90%	4.2	23.1%	9.8%	13.4%	1.8%	4.36	3.38	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	462	97	34	11	100%	5.1	16.3%	8.4%	8.0%	3.0%	3.23	4.43	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	111	462	97	34	11	100%	5.1	21.0%	7.4%	13.6%	2.4%	3.23	3.56	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	124	540	130	57	20	96%	4.8	19.9%	10.7%	9.2%	4.4%	4.28	5.19	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	124	540	130	57	20	96%	4.8	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	3.7%	4.28	4.48	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	90	373	80	28	13	89%	4.8	18.8%	7.0%	11.8%	4.0%	4.38	4.61	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	90	373	80	28	13	89%	4.8	18.8%	7.0%	11.8%	4.0%	4.38	4.61	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	90	373	80	28	13	89%	4.8	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.5%	4.38	4.13	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	4	4	15	77	19	8	2	100%	3.7	21.2%	9.4%	11.9%	3.3%	7.36	4.30	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	4	4	15	77	19	8	2	100%	3.7	21.2%	9.4%	11.9%	3.3%	7.36	4.30	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	4	4	15	77	19	8	2	100%	3.7	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	2.6%	7.36	3.92	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	9	37	9	0	1	100%	1.8	24.3%	0.0%	24.3%	2.7%	6.00	2.53	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	9	37	9	0	1	100%	1.8	24.3%	0.0%	24.3%	2.7%	6.00	2.53	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	9	37	9	0	1	100%	1.8	24.3%	0.0%	24.3%	2.7%	6.00	2.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	25	25	144	608	132	48	19	100%	5.8	21.6%	8.0%	13.7%	3.1%	4.37	4.37	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	156	659	149	52	20	100%	6.0	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	3.1%	4.31	4.27	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	158	666	150	53	21	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.0%	14.6%	3.1%	4.31	4.31	+1.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	158	666	149	54	22	100%	6.1	22.4%	8.1%	14.3%	3.2%	4.36	4.39	+0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	151	636	141	53	22	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.3%	13.8%	3.4%	4.46	4.52	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	142	598	130	51	21	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.6%	13.2%	3.6%	4.60	4.70	+0.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	132	557	119	50	21	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.0%	12.4%	3.8%	4.78	4.90	0.0
2034	32	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	122	516	108	48	21	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.4%	11.6%	4.1%	4.99	5.13	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	67	283	64	22	8	100%	6.1	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	2.9%	4.19	4.15	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	99	418	94	33	12	100%	6.2	22.6%	8.0%	14.6%	2.9%	4.19	4.19	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	118	498	112	40	15	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.1%	14.3%	3.0%	4.24	4.27	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	123	519	115	43	16	100%	6.2	22.1%	8.3%	13.8%	3.1%	4.33	4.39	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	121	511	111	44	17	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.6%	13.2%	3.3%	4.46	4.56	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	117	494	106	44	18	100%	5.8	21.4%	9.0%	12.4%	3.5%	4.63	4.75	0.0
2034	32	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	111	469	98	44	18	100%	6.2	20.9%	9.4%	11.6%	3.8%	4.83	4.97	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		126	126	755	3189	700	271	104	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.5%	13.4%	3.3%	4.43	4.11	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	72	28	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.5%	13.4%	3.3%	4.43	4.11	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		102	95	448	1919	355	174	65	93%	4.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	3.4%	4.12	4.56	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	42	200	856	158	78	29	93%	4.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	3.4%	4.12	4.56	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sem Robberse (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	21.6%	8.0%	3.1%	—	4.32	22.5%	14.5%	471	-0.05	—	—	—
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	85
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	84
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	82
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	82
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	81
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	81
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	80
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	80
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	80
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	80
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	80
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	80
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	80
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	79
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	79
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	79
Rhett Lowder R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	19.3%	7.3%	1.7%	.301	4.33	17.1%	8.0%	133	+0.97	3.36	267	79
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	79
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	145	22.0%	8.4%	1.32	4.50
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.1	138	21.3%	7.8%	1.48	4.52
Julio Teheran ('24)	7.4	163	20.5%	8.0%	1.24	3.85
Ted Lilly ('13)	9.9	142	20.0%	7.9%	1.33	4.14