Sem Robberse — OGILVIE

Sem Robberse P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION9 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%20.3%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD4555

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	5	3	10	41	9	0	0	60%	2.1	22.0%	0.0%	22.0%	0.0%	0.87	1.25	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	5	3	10	41	9	0	0	60%	2.1	22.0%	0.0%	22.0%	0.0%	0.87	1.36	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	89	389	90	38	7	90%	4.2	17.3%	11.4%	6.0%	2.4%	4.36	4.39	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	89	389	90	38	7	90%	4.2	23.1%	9.8%	13.4%	1.8%	4.36	3.38	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	462	97	34	11	100%	5.1	16.3%	8.4%	8.0%	3.0%	3.23	4.43	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	111	462	97	34	11	100%	5.1	21.0%	7.4%	13.6%	2.4%	3.23	3.56	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	124	540	130	57	20	96%	4.8	19.7%	10.7%	8.9%	4.4%	4.28	5.21	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	124	540	130	57	20	96%	4.8	19.7%	10.7%	8.9%	4.4%	4.28	5.21	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	124	540	130	57	20	96%	4.8	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	3.7%	4.28	4.48	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	90	373	80	28	13	89%	4.8	18.1%	7.0%	11.1%	4.0%	4.38	4.66	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	90	373	80	28	13	89%	4.8	18.1%	7.0%	11.1%	4.0%	4.38	4.66	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	90	373	80	28	13	89%	4.8	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.5%	4.38	4.13	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	4	4	15	77	19	8	2	100%	3.7	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.3%	7.36	4.36	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	4	4	15	77	19	8	2	100%	3.7	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.3%	7.36	4.36	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	4	4	15	77	19	8	2	100%	3.7	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	2.6%	7.36	3.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	5	5	9	37	9	0	1	100%	1.8	—	—	—	—	6.00	—	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	5	5	9	37	9	0	1	100%	1.8	—	—	—	—	6.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	STL	2	2	3	10	2	0	0	100%	1.5	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.41	—
2026	24	A RAW	STL	3	3	6	27	7	0	1	100%	2.0	25.9%	0.0%	25.9%	3.7%	9.00	2.94	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	STL	1	1	8	32	6	3	1	100%	7.6	20.3%	8.1%	12.1%	3.4%	4.64	4.64	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	17	69	15	3	2	—	—	22.4%	3.8%	18.7%	3.0%	5.38	2.12	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	109	461	100	36	15	100%	5.7	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	3.3%	4.51	4.45	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	121	511	116	40	17	100%	6.1	22.7%	7.8%	14.9%	3.3%	4.41	4.36	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	123	521	118	41	17	100%	5.9	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	3.3%	4.39	4.39	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	123	521	117	42	18	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.1%	14.5%	3.4%	4.44	4.47	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	118	497	111	41	18	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	3.6%	4.54	4.60	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	111	467	103	40	18	100%	6.2	21.9%	8.6%	13.4%	3.8%	4.68	4.78	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	103	436	94	39	17	100%	6.1	21.6%	8.9%	12.6%	4.0%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	47	198	43	16	6	100%	5.9	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	3.1%	4.38	4.32	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	80	338	77	27	10	100%	6.2	22.7%	7.8%	14.9%	3.1%	4.28	4.23	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	95	401	91	32	12	100%	5.9	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	3.1%	4.26	4.26	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	104	439	99	35	14	100%	6.1	22.5%	8.1%	14.5%	3.2%	4.31	4.34	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	103	435	97	36	14	100%	6.1	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	3.3%	4.40	4.46	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	99	418	92	36	15	100%	6.2	21.9%	8.6%	13.4%	3.5%	4.54	4.64	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	94	397	86	35	15	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.9%	12.6%	3.7%	4.71	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	104	623	2629	585	217	87	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.3%	14.0%	3.3%	4.42	4.07	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	70	28	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.3%	14.0%	3.3%	4.42	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		102	95	448	1919	350	174	65	93%	4.4	18.3%	9.1%	9.2%	3.4%	4.12	4.58	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	42	200	856	156	78	29	93%	4.4	18.3%	9.1%	9.2%	3.4%	4.12	4.58	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sem Robberse (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	20.3%	8.1%	3.4%	—	4.40	22.4%	14.5%	354	-0.24	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	86
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	85
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	85
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	85
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	85
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	85
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	84
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	84
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	84
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	84
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	84
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	83
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	82
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	82
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	82
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	82
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	82
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	112	22.0%	8.2%	1.35	4.55
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01