Rhett Lowder

P Cincinnati Reds

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX4 levels	28	28	139	3.10	2.82	23.5%	6.6%	4.5	K 19.3% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.36
2025	23	MIX3 levels	5	5	9	10.61	4.06	26.5%	6.1%	—	K 26.5% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.88
2026	24	MIX2 levels	30	27	138	5.73	4.38	17.8%	8.8%	1.7	K 17.1% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.33
2027PROJ	25	MLBCIN	15	15	87	4.58	4.60	17.9%	8.3%	0.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBCIN	14	14	82	4.65	4.61	19.3%	8.2%	0.9
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBCIN	10	10	62	4.65	4.65	19.3%	8.3%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.180First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$2M2029Arb-2$2M2030Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo38

K%15

xwOBA vs15

Form8.86 ERA (proj 4.58) · K 14.4% (proj 17.9%) · BB 12.5% (proj 8.3%) ▼▼ last 60d · 21 IP through Oct 27

CompsZach McAllister (age 25) · Chandler Champlain (age 25) · Brian Edgington (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.58

FIP4.60

K%17.9%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP87

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p1018.6%

p1517.1%

xwOBA vs

p150.353

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.180 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$3M	+$1M
2029	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	28	139	575	135	38	9	100%	5.0	19.3%	7.3%	11.9%	1.7%	3.10	3.36	+3.5
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	28	139	575	135	38	9	100%	5.0	19.3%	7.3%	11.9%	1.7%	3.10	3.36	+3.5
2024	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	28	139	575	135	38	9	100%	5.0	23.5%	6.6%	16.9%	1.6%	3.10	2.82	+4.5
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	5	9	49	13	3	2	100%	1.9	26.5%	6.1%	20.4%	4.1%	10.61	3.88	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	5	9	49	13	3	2	100%	1.9	26.5%	6.1%	20.4%	4.1%	10.61	3.88	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	5	5	9	49	13	3	2	100%	1.9	26.5%	6.1%	20.4%	4.1%	10.61	4.06	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	138	624	111	55	18	90%	4.6	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	2.8%	5.73	4.33	+1.7
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	138	624	111	55	18	90%	4.6	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	2.8%	5.73	4.33	+1.7
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	27	138	624	111	55	18	90%	4.6	17.8%	8.8%	9.0%	2.9%	5.73	4.38	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			35	32	164	731	125	69	18	91%	4.7	17.1%	9.4%	7.7%	2.5%	4.88	4.26	+2.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CIN	15	15	87	367	66	30	11	100%	5.8	17.9%	8.3%	9.6%	2.9%	4.58	4.60	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	87	366	71	30	11	100%	6.2	19.3%	8.2%	11.1%	2.9%	4.52	4.48	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	65	274	53	23	8	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.3%	11.0%	2.9%	4.52	4.52	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	58	244	47	21	7	100%	5.8	19.2%	8.5%	10.7%	3.0%	4.57	4.60	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	48	202	38	18	6	100%	6.0	18.6%	8.7%	9.9%	3.2%	4.69	4.76	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	CIN	6	6	37	157	28	14	5	100%	6.2	17.9%	9.0%	8.9%	3.4%	4.86	4.97	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	CIN	5	5	27	115	20	11	4	100%	5.5	17.2%	9.3%	7.8%	3.6%	5.06	5.20	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	82	346	67	29	11	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.65	4.61	+0.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	62	262	51	22	8	100%	6.2	19.3%	8.3%	11.0%	3.2%	4.65	4.65	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	55	232	45	20	8	100%	6.1	19.2%	8.5%	10.7%	3.3%	4.70	4.73	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	45	190	35	17	7	100%	5.6	18.6%	8.7%	9.9%	3.5%	4.83	4.90	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	35	148	26	13	5	100%	5.8	17.9%	9.0%	8.9%	3.7%	5.01	5.12	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	26	110	19	10	4	100%	6.5	17.2%	9.3%	7.8%	3.9%	5.22	5.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	83	470	2021	368	179	61	97%	5.5	18.2%	8.9%	9.4%	3.0%	4.81	4.35	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	861	157	76	26	97%	5.5	18.2%	8.9%	9.4%	3.0%	4.81	4.35	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		63	60	287	1248	230	102	29	95%	4.6	18.5%	8.2%	10.3%	2.3%	4.61	3.87	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	870	161	71	20	95%	4.6	18.5%	8.2%	10.3%	2.3%	4.61	3.87	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 5 IPFIP -0.12 → 0.33 (+0.45)K% 38.1% → 32.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.10%	—	×0.860	32.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP -0.12 → 0.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 77 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.56 (+0.57)K% 23.8% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.77%	—	×0.810	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.100	6.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷1.089	×1.200	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 25 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.16 (+0.63)K% 28.4% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.43%	—	×0.770	21.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.150	6.76%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷1.285	×1.250	1.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 6 IPFIP 0.29 → 0.68 (+0.39)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.111	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.29 → 0.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rhett Lowder (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.53	19.3%	11.0%	209	-0.07	—	—	—
Zach McAllister R 2013 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	17.4%	8.1%	2.2%	.289	3.27	23.3%	15.9%	207	-0.62	2.82	727	78
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	78
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	78
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	77
Mike Foltynewicz R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	25	SP	3.98	20.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.316	3.66	23.9%	15.8%	351	-0.32	3.17	957	77
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	77
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	77
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	76
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	76
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	76
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	76
Anthony Reyes R 2007 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP	4.78	15.6%	9.1%	3.4%	.270	4.60	12.4%	2.5%	87	-0.18	4.01	293	76
Jordan Romano R 2018 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.7%	7.9%	3.3%	.274	3.78	31.7%	22.0%	131	-0.65	2.40	692	76
Asher Wojciechowski R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	26	SP	4.30	15.7%	8.5%	2.6%	.323	4.61	20.4%	12.2%	287	+0.31	3.15	678	76
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	76
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	76
A.J. Cole R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	17.1%	9.3%	2.4%	.351	4.52	25.6%	17.4%	115	+0.37	3.66	529	76
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	75
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	75
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	64	18.2%	8.8%	1.11	4.70
Ross Detwiler ('22)	3.8	68	15.3%	8.2%	1.11	4.56
Adrian Devine ('73-'80, 2 WAR*)	1.9	65	16.7%*	7.8%*	1.12*	4.45*
Franklin Morales ('16)	2.5	54	17.9%	10.4%	1.12	4.56
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Lerrin LaGrow ('70-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.9	87	16.8%*	9.1%*	1.23*	4.50*
Robert Gsellman ('22)	1.8	73	18.0%	7.8%	1.03	4.60