Rhett Lowder
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 46 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.03
FIP4.01
K%19.0%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP46
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p2518.6%
xwOBA vs
p120.357
FB+3.8 (52%)
CH+2.6 (20%)
SI (30%)
SL-1.1 (28%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 28 | 139 | 575 | 135 | 38 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 1.6% | 3.10 | 3.27 | +3.5 |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 28 | 139 | 575 | 135 | 38 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 16.9% | 1.6% | 3.10 | 2.82 | +4.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 5 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 1.9 | 26.5% | 6.1% | 20.4% | 4.1% | 10.61 | 3.88 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 5 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 1.9 | 26.5% | 6.1% | 20.4% | 4.1% | 10.61 | 4.06 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 17 | 14 | 75 | 338 | 67 | 34 | 9 | 82% | 4.4 | 18.6% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.45 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 46 | 196 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.07 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 121 | 534 | 104 | 51 | 14 | — | — | 19.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 4.59 | 4.28 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 116 | 490 | 104 | 51 | 14 | — | — | 21.3% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.21 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 133 | 560 | 116 | 47 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 4.20 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 145 | 611 | 132 | 51 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 4.11 | +2.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 142 | 602 | 130 | 51 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 2.6% | 4.16 | 4.15 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 126 | 50 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.23 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 117 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 106 | 48 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.60 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 116 | 489 | 95 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.83 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 84 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 5.09 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 98 | 415 | 74 | 43 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 5.19 | 5.37 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 126 | 532 | 110 | 45 | 14 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.24 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 125 | 48 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.15 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 123 | 48 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 119 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 111 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.43 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 101 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 91 | 44 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.88 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 80 | 42 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 5.14 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 70 | 40 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 5.25 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 211 | 208 | 1225 | 5194 | 1050 | 473 | 152 | 99% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.15 | +17.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 848 | 171 | 77 | 25 | 99% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 50 | 47 | 223 | 962 | 187 | 81 | 21 | 94% | 4.5 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 2.1% | 4.03 | 3.71 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 42 | 200 | 861 | 167 | 73 | 18 | 94% | 4.5 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 2.1% | 4.03 | 3.71 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rhett Lowder (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.4% | — | 4.15 | 21.3% | 12.9% | 420 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 89 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 87 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 86 |
| Justin Lewis R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.34 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 1.1% | .323 | 6.50 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 98 | +3.16 | 3.34 | 213 | 86 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 85 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 84 |
| Félix Peña R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.68 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .296 | 3.92 | 24.0% | 15.6% | 263 | +0.24 | 2.84 | 615 | 84 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.19 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 3.51 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.68 | 3.51 | 220 | 84 |
| Jake Walters R 2025 · 3.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.46 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 1.2% | .260 | 3.82 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 97 | +0.36 | 3.46 | 261 | 83 |
| Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 16.9% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .317 | 4.33 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.61 | 428 | 83 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 83 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.79 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.84 | 3.79 | 606 | 83 |
| Connor Noland R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.78 | 14.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.26 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 315 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 423 | 83 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 83 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 83 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.63 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 79 | -0.22 | 3.48 | 331 | 83 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.67 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.85 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.18 | 3.67 | 523 | 82 |
| Brady Feigl R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.81 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .333 | 5.77 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 122 | +1.96 | 3.81 | 257 | 82 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2027 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.24 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 1.4% | .291 | 4.21 | 15.1% | 5.6% | 183 | +0.97 | 3.24 | 289 | 82 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 125 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 4.42 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |
| Dallas Keuchel ('23) | 9 | 132 | 18.7% | 7.3% | 0.96 | 3.97 |