Rhett Lowder — OGILVIE

Rhett Lowder P Cincinnati Reds

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION124 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.03

FIP4.02

K%18.0%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL6065

CMD5560

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p1018.6%

p1717.4%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

FB+3.8 (50%)

CH+2.6 (21%)

SI (29%)

CU (3%)

SL-1.1 (27%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.180 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Arb-1	$5M	+1.1	$8M	+$4M
2029	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$7M	+$1M
2030	Arb-3	$11M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$21M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	28	139	575	135	38	9	100%	5.0	19.3%	7.3%	11.9%	1.7%	3.10	3.36	+2.6
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	28	139	575	135	38	9	100%	5.0	19.3%	7.3%	11.9%	1.7%	3.10	3.36	+2.6
2024	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	28	139	575	135	38	9	100%	5.0	23.5%	6.6%	16.9%	1.6%	3.10	2.82	+3.6
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	5	9	49	13	3	2	100%	1.9	26.5%	6.1%	20.4%	4.1%	10.61	3.88	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	5	9	49	13	3	2	100%	1.9	26.5%	6.1%	20.4%	4.1%	10.61	3.88	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	5	5	9	49	13	3	2	100%	1.9	26.5%	6.1%	20.4%	4.1%	10.61	4.06	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	29	150	669	116	62	17	91%	4.7	17.3%	9.3%	8.1%	2.5%	4.86	4.27	+1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	27	24	124	562	102	48	17	89%	4.6	17.4%	8.9%	8.5%	2.9%	5.79	4.35	+0.8
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	27	24	124	562	102	48	17	89%	4.6	17.4%	8.9%	8.5%	2.9%	5.79	4.35	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	CIN	1	1	5	21	8	0	0	100%	5.0	38.1%	0.0%	38.1%	0.0%	5.40	-0.12	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	CIN	26	23	119	541	94	48	17	88%	4.6	17.4%	8.9%	8.5%	3.1%	5.81	4.48	+0.6
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	CIN	26	23	119	541	94	48	17	88%	4.6	17.4%	8.9%	8.5%	3.1%	5.81	4.48	+0.6
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CIN	2	2	12	50	9	4	1	100%	5.9	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	2.5%	4.03	4.02	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	CIN	2	2	12	51	9	4	1	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	2.7%	4.15	4.14	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	136	612	111	52	18	—	—	18.1%	8.5%	9.6%	3.0%	5.64	4.33	+0.9
FULL	24	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	131	554	111	52	18	—	—	20.0%	9.4%	10.6%	3.3%	5.86	4.42	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CIN	25	25	145	612	121	49	17	100%	5.8	19.8%	8.0%	11.8%	2.8%	4.43	4.35	+0.9
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	26	26	157	663	139	52	19	100%	6.0	20.9%	7.9%	13.0%	2.8%	4.32	4.25	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	26	26	159	670	140	54	19	100%	6.1	20.9%	8.0%	12.9%	2.8%	4.30	4.29	+1.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	26	26	159	670	139	55	20	100%	6.1	20.8%	8.1%	12.6%	2.9%	4.34	4.37	+1.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	25	25	152	640	129	54	20	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	3.1%	4.46	4.53	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	CIN	24	24	142	601	117	52	20	100%	5.9	19.5%	8.7%	10.8%	3.3%	4.63	4.74	+0.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	133	561	105	51	20	100%	6.0	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	3.5%	4.84	4.97	-0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	CIN	20	20	123	518	93	49	20	100%	6.1	17.9%	9.4%	8.5%	3.8%	5.07	5.23	-0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	CIN	24	24	138	583	115	46	18	100%	5.8	19.8%	8.0%	11.8%	3.0%	4.55	4.47	+0.9
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	25	25	149	629	131	50	19	100%	6.0	20.9%	7.9%	13.0%	3.0%	4.44	4.37	+1.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	25	25	151	638	133	51	20	100%	6.0	20.9%	8.0%	12.9%	3.1%	4.42	4.41	+1.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	25	25	151	638	132	52	20	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.1%	12.6%	3.2%	4.47	4.50	+0.9
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	24	24	144	608	123	51	20	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	3.3%	4.60	4.67	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	CIN	22	22	135	570	111	49	20	100%	6.1	19.5%	8.7%	10.8%	3.6%	4.77	4.88	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	CIN	21	21	126	532	100	48	20	100%	6.0	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	3.8%	4.99	5.12	-0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	CIN	20	20	117	494	89	47	20	100%	5.8	17.9%	9.4%	8.5%	4.1%	5.24	5.40	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		220	217	1272	5407	1059	460	176	99%	5.8	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.68	4.31	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	850	167	72	28	99%	5.8	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.68	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		60	57	273	1186	221	95	28	95%	4.5	18.7%	8.0%	10.6%	2.4%	4.58	3.85	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	869	162	70	21	95%	4.5	18.7%	8.0%	10.6%	2.4%	4.58	3.85	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rhett Lowder (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	19.5%	7.4%	2.4%	—	4.30	20.5%	12.6%	461	+0.19	—	—	—
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	89
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	89
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	88
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	87
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	86
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	85
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	85
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.27	13.7%	6.7%	376	-0.13	3.78	501	85
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.66	18.1%	11.3%	332	+0.97	3.69	523	85
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	85
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	85
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	85
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	84
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	84
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	84
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	84
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	83
Jake Walters R 2019 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP	3.51	17.4%	9.2%	1.3%	.260	3.78	18.2%	7.6%	97	+0.27	3.51	261	83
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	142	19.9%	8.3%	1.18	4.49
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14