Rhett Lowder
P
Cincinnati Reds
+1.8
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 2.0 · 2028
ERA2.97
FIP4.17
xFIP4.64
SIERA4.80
K%20.9%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%12.3%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2028
OFP—50
K†5050
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p1019.7%
K%
p1015.3%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
FB+3.8 (53%)
CH+2.6 (22%)
SI (30%)
SL-1.1 (25%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 28 | 28 | 139 | 575 | 135 | 38 | 9 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 3.10 | 3.34 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 5 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 13 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.61 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 4 | 4 | 23 | 94 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 16.0% | 7.4% | 1.1% | 3.52 | 3.28 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 77 | 34 | 9 | 18.8% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 2.58 | 3.77 | +1.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 120 | 504 | 92 | 41 | 10 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 2.76 | 3.68 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 112 | 46 | 13 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.64 | 4.08 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 121 | 48 | 14 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 3.89 | 4.06 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 124 | 49 | 14 | 20.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 4.00 | 4.07 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 124 | 49 | 15 | 20.5% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 4.07 | 4.11 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 118 | 49 | 14 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 112 | 48 | 14 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 4.27 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 104 | 47 | 14 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 97 | 46 | 14 | 18.2% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.49 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 89 | 45 | 14 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 81 | 43 | 14 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 73 | 42 | 13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 65 | 40 | 13 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 57 | 38 | 13 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 5.14 | 5.25 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 37 | 172 | 718 | 139 | 52 | 13 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 1.8% | 3.57 | 3.37 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 837 | 162 | 61 | 15 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 1.8% | 3.57 | 3.37 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rhett Lowder (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 2.4% | — | 4.07 | 20.3% | 12.1% | 417 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| DJ Baxendale R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.5% | 8.6% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.05 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 259 | -0.73 | 2.86 | 426 | 91 |
| Jose Reyes R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.24 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .289 | 5.11 | 11.0% | 2.8% | 100 | +0.87 | 4.24 | 225 | 91 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 91 |
| Brooks Hall R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 4.02 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.14 | 3.45 | 274 | 91 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.77 | 15.0% | 9.0% | 1.4% | .302 | 4.29 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 123 | +0.52 | 2.88 | 356 | 90 |
| Braden Olthoff R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.51 | 108 | 89 |
| Terance Marin R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.60 | 13.4% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .291 | 4.98 | 11.2% | 3.5% | 110 | +1.38 | 3.60 | 322 | 89 |
| Warwick Saupold R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.66 | 15.2% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .296 | 4.21 | 15.0% | 6.6% | 265 | +0.55 | 3.45 | 389 | 89 |
| Ryan Etsell R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.62 | 14.7% | 6.4% | 1.7% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 110 | 89 |
| Nick Petree R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.15 | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 122 | 89 |
| Zeke Spruill R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.94 | 11.8% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 114 | 89 |
| Tim Atherton R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 89 |
| Tanner Andrews R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.71 | 15.7% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.02 | 254 | 89 |
| Ryan Hawks R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.77 | 13.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 2.10 | 19.9% | 14.5% | 15 | -2.67 | 2.10 | 252 | 89 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.17 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.93 | 354 | 89 |
| Mikey O'Brien R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.58 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 1.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 110 | 88 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .307 | 3.96 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.48 | 3.22 | 907 | 88 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.97 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 2.2% | .295 | 4.53 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 121 | +0.56 | 3.91 | 320 | 88 |
| Connor Noland R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.01 | 14.8% | 5.7% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.17 | 17.1% | 8.7% | 280 | +0.16 | 4.01 | 388 | 88 |
| Luke Farrell R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.65 | 16.4% | 7.5% | 1.8% | .298 | 4.50 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 306 | +0.85 | 3.65 | 584 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.180 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.8 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $7M | +2.0 | $17M | +$10M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $12M | +2.0 | $17M | +$6M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $17M | +1.9 | $17M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $37M | $78M | +$41M | ||