Jack Mahoney
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+0.8
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2028
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.7%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%8.0%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2028
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 23 | 22 | 120 | 497 | 115 | 30 | 10 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 3.90 | 3.90 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 24 | 24 | 105 | 473 | 81 | 46 | 11 | 13.9% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 5.93 | 4.57 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 82 | 45 | 13 | 17.7% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 120 | 506 | 92 | 51 | 13 | 18.2% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 4.48 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 99 | 48 | 14 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 130 | 550 | 109 | 50 | 15 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.48 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 133 | 562 | 112 | 51 | 16 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.48 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 133 | 562 | 112 | 51 | 16 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 130 | 550 | 109 | 50 | 16 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 126 | 533 | 104 | 49 | 16 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.61 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 100 | 48 | 15 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 94 | 47 | 15 | 19.1% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 89 | 46 | 15 | 18.8% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.86 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 83 | 44 | 15 | 18.4% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.97 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 422 | 76 | 43 | 14 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 5.02 | 5.09 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 395 | 69 | 41 | 14 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 5.14 | 5.23 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 48 | 237 | 1022 | 164 | 93 | 24 | 16.1% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 4.75 | 4.20 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 41 | 200 | 864 | 139 | 79 | 20 | 16.1% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 4.75 | 4.20 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Mahoney (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 17.7% | 9.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.50 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 387 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 94 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 93 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 92 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 92 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 92 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 91 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 90 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 90 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 373 | 90 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 89 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 89 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 89 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.08 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.27 | 3.08 | 129 | 89 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.17 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.93 | 354 | 89 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 89 |
| Tim Atherton R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 89 |
| Chris Devenski R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .298 | 2.89 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 236 | -1.19 | 2.10 | 608 | 89 |
| Corey Baker R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .295 | 5.02 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.25 | 3.08 | 267 | 88 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .307 | 3.96 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.48 | 3.22 | 907 | 88 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.0 | $10M | +$7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.7 | $4M | -$0.4M |
| Totals | $12M | $49M | +$37M | ||