Jack Mahoney

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#639ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	23	22	120	3.90	3.02	23.1%	6.0%	—	K 17.3% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.91
2025	23	AACOL	24	24	105	5.93	4.24	17.1%	9.7%	—	K 13.9% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.50
2026	24	MIX3 levels	22	22	103	3.31	3.37	19.6%	9.4%	—	K 16.2% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.80
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	1	1	3	4.73	4.73	15.7%	9.7%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	26	MLBCOL	6	6	35	4.83	4.80	17.4%	9.4%	0.3
2029PROJ49% MLB	27	MLBCOL	8	8	48	4.81	4.82	17.7%	9.4%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.8M2033Ext$0.7M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsBlayne Weller (age 25) · Carlos Pimentel (age 25) · Chase Solesky (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%15.7%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP140

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	2	0	2	10	3	1	1	0%	1.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	10.0%	9.00	7.32	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	2	0	2	10	3	1	1	0%	1.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	10.0%	9.00	8.10	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	497	115	30	10	96%	5.2	17.3%	7.1%	10.2%	2.5%	3.90	3.91	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	497	115	30	10	96%	5.2	17.3%	7.1%	10.2%	2.5%	3.90	3.91	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	120	497	115	30	10	96%	5.2	23.1%	6.0%	17.1%	2.0%	3.90	3.02	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	24	24	105	473	81	46	11	100%	4.4	13.9%	10.7%	3.2%	2.2%	5.93	4.50	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	24	24	105	473	81	46	11	100%	4.4	13.9%	10.7%	3.2%	2.2%	5.93	4.50	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	24	24	105	473	81	46	11	100%	4.4	17.1%	9.7%	7.4%	2.3%	5.93	4.24	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	103	448	88	42	6	100%	4.7	16.2%	9.7%	6.6%	1.5%	3.31	3.80	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	103	448	88	42	6	100%	4.7	16.2%	9.7%	6.6%	1.5%	3.31	3.80	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	103	448	88	42	6	100%	4.7	19.6%	9.4%	10.3%	1.3%	3.31	3.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	15.7%	9.7%	6.0%	2.5%	4.73	4.73	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	111	467	81	44	12	100%	6.2	17.4%	9.4%	8.0%	2.5%	4.62	4.59	+1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	98	413	73	39	11	100%	6.1	17.7%	9.4%	8.3%	2.6%	4.59	4.60	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	90	382	68	36	10	100%	6.0	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	2.7%	4.63	4.66	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	83	352	62	34	10	100%	6.0	17.7%	9.6%	8.1%	2.9%	4.72	4.78	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	75	318	55	32	10	100%	5.8	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.96	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	68	285	48	29	9	100%	6.1	16.9%	10.3%	6.7%	3.3%	5.04	5.16	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	35	148	26	14	4	100%	5.8	17.4%	9.4%	8.0%	2.9%	4.83	4.80	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	48	203	36	19	6	100%	6.0	17.7%	9.4%	8.3%	3.0%	4.81	4.82	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	56	236	42	22	7	100%	6.2	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.89	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	57	241	43	23	8	100%	5.7	17.7%	9.6%	8.1%	3.3%	4.96	5.02	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	56	236	41	23	8	100%	6.2	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.5%	5.12	5.22	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	54	228	39	23	9	100%	6.0	16.9%	10.3%	6.7%	3.8%	5.32	5.44	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	306	1292	226	125	43	100%	6.0	17.5%	9.7%	7.8%	3.3%	4.99	4.67	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	148	82	28	100%	6.0	17.5%	9.7%	7.8%	3.3%	4.99	4.67	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		71	68	330	1428	227	130	31	96%	4.6	15.9%	9.1%	6.8%	2.2%	4.39	4.09	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	865	138	79	19	96%	4.6	15.9%	9.1%	6.8%	2.2%	4.39	4.09	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 68 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.20 (+0.55)K% 22.8% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.78%	—	×0.810	18.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.54%	—	×1.100	9.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.71%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 33 IPFIP 4.68 → 4.85 (+0.16)K% 14.4% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.37%	—	×0.860	12.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.25%	—	×0.900	10.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.68 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 105 IPFIP 4.16 → 4.50 (+0.34)K% 17.1% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.12%	—	×0.810	13.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.73%	—	×1.100	10.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.255	×1.200	2.22%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFresno Grizzlies · 95 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.58 (+0.89)K% 23.3% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.33%	—	×0.740	17.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.64%	—	×1.180	6.66%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.002	×1.300	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 25 IPFIP 4.20 → 5.09 (+0.89)K% 22.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.43%	—	×0.770	17.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.48%	—	×1.150	8.60%
HR / BF /BF	3.74%	÷1.086	×1.250	4.30%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 4.20 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Mahoney (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.61	17.6%	8.2%	299	-0.12	—	—	—
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	89
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	88
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	14.9%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.43	16.0%	8.7%	271	-0.34	4.07	567	87
Carter Spivey R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP	4.02	14.2%	10.6%	1.4%	.264	6.14	14.9%	3.5%	30	+2.12	4.02	155	86
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	85
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	85
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	85
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	85
James Needy R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	14.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.326	2.82	18.1%	8.2%	36	-1.90	2.82	167	85
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	84
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	83
Asher Wojciechowski R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	26	SP	4.30	15.7%	8.5%	2.6%	.323	4.61	20.4%	12.2%	287	+0.31	3.15	678	83
Baron Stuart R 2024 · 3.57 FIP	25	SP	3.57	17.1%	10.5%	1.1%	.301	4.97	18.1%	1.4%	96	+1.40	3.57	306	83
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	83
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	83
Claudio Vargas R 2003 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP	4.75	12.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.251	5.02	16.5%	8.5%	418	+0.27	3.66	765	82
Scarlyn Reyes R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	25	SP	4.16	13.5%	10.4%	1.6%	.296	4.65	13.8%	3.2%	189	+0.49	4.16	317	82
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	82
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	82
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	95	17.1%	9.6%	1.06	4.72
Jim Shellenback ('66-'77, -2 WAR*)	2.3	76	15.2%*	9.7%*	1.08*	4.78*
Tom Bolton ('87-'94, 3 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.3%*	9.6%*	0.92*	4.57*
John Montague ('73-'80, -2 WAR*)	2.7	91	17.0%*	9.3%*	1.23*	4.98*
Paul Wagner ('99)	3.0	120	17.1%	9.6%	0.96	4.83
Micah Owings ('12)	2.4	97	16.4%	9.8%	1.19	4.86
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71