Jack Mahoney — OGILVIE

Jack Mahoney P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%15.9%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CMD4050

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	2	0	2	10	3	1	1	0%	1.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	10.0%	9.00	7.32	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	2	0	2	10	3	1	1	0%	1.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	10.0%	9.00	7.32	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	2	0	2	10	3	1	1	0%	1.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	10.0%	9.00	8.10	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	497	115	30	10	96%	5.2	17.3%	7.1%	10.2%	2.5%	3.90	3.91	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	497	115	30	10	96%	5.2	17.3%	7.1%	10.2%	2.5%	3.90	3.91	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	120	497	115	30	10	96%	5.2	23.1%	6.0%	17.1%	2.0%	3.90	3.02	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	24	24	105	473	81	46	11	100%	4.4	13.9%	10.7%	3.2%	2.2%	5.93	4.50	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	24	24	105	473	81	46	11	100%	4.4	13.9%	10.7%	3.2%	2.2%	5.93	4.50	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	24	24	105	473	81	46	11	100%	4.4	17.1%	9.7%	7.4%	2.3%	5.93	4.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	21	21	101	436	88	41	6	100%	4.8	16.5%	9.7%	6.8%	1.6%	3.12	3.81	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	21	21	101	436	88	41	6	100%	4.8	16.5%	9.7%	6.8%	1.6%	3.12	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	COL	1	1	2	7	1	0	0	100%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.89	—
2026	24	AA RAW	COL	13	13	68	281	64	24	2	100%	5.2	22.8%	8.5%	14.2%	0.7%	1.99	2.65	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	COL	7	7	31	148	23	17	4	100%	4.4	15.5%	11.5%	4.1%	2.7%	5.81	4.73	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	COL	2	2	8	36	6	3	1	100%	4.2	15.9%	9.4%	6.4%	2.7%	4.82	4.82	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	109	472	94	44	7	—	—	19.9%	9.4%	10.4%	1.5%	3.25	3.88	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	127	537	97	48	15	100%	5.8	18.1%	9.0%	9.1%	2.7%	4.65	4.58	+0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	139	588	115	52	16	100%	6.1	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	2.7%	4.53	4.46	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	137	579	114	51	16	100%	6.0	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	2.8%	4.50	4.49	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	133	562	110	51	16	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	2.9%	4.53	4.56	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	127	537	104	49	16	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.2%	10.1%	3.1%	4.63	4.70	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	120	505	96	48	16	100%	6.0	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.3%	4.78	4.87	+0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	111	470	87	46	16	100%	5.9	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	3.5%	4.96	5.07	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	56	236	43	21	7	100%	5.6	18.1%	9.0%	9.1%	3.1%	4.88	4.81	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	93	393	77	35	12	100%	5.8	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	3.2%	4.76	4.69	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	107	452	89	40	15	100%	5.9	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	3.2%	4.73	4.72	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	112	473	92	43	16	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.3%	4.77	4.80	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	111	469	90	43	17	100%	6.2	19.3%	9.2%	10.1%	3.5%	4.89	4.96	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	108	456	86	43	17	100%	6.0	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.8%	5.05	5.14	+0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	102	431	80	43	17	100%	6.0	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	4.0%	5.25	5.36	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	115	689	2908	557	268	101	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.2%	9.9%	3.5%	4.91	4.56	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	162	78	29	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.2%	9.9%	3.5%	4.91	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		70	67	328	1416	227	129	31	96%	4.7	16.0%	9.1%	6.9%	2.2%	4.34	4.10	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	864	138	79	19	96%	4.7	16.0%	9.1%	6.9%	2.2%	4.34	4.10	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Mahoney (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	15.9%	9.4%	2.7%	—	4.51	19.1%	10.2%	404	-0.31	—	—	—
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	92
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	90
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	90
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	90
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	89
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	88
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	88
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	88
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	87
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	87
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	87
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	87
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	86
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	86
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	86
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.86	27.7%	21.2%	39	-1.24	2.86	139	86
Erich Uelmen R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	23	SP	4.64	15.3%	10.7%	2.7%	.299	4.57	19.8%	8.8%	159	-0.07	3.48	383	85
DJ Baxendale R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SP	3.79	14.5%	8.6%	1.5%	.316	3.06	17.2%	11.3%	259	-0.73	2.88	426	85
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	85
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	124	18.8%	9.2%	1.14	4.66
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45