Jack Mahoney
P
Hartford Yard Goats
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.9 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128118vR 109
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
K%15.9%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%5.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 9.00 | 7.32 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 9.00 | 8.10 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 120 | 497 | 115 | 30 | 10 | 96% | 5.2 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 3.90 | 3.87 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 120 | 497 | 115 | 30 | 10 | 96% | 5.2 | 23.1% | 6.0% | 17.1% | 2.0% | 3.90 | 3.02 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 24 | 24 | 105 | 473 | 81 | 46 | 11 | 100% | 4.4 | 13.9% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 5.93 | 4.30 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 24 | 24 | 105 | 473 | 81 | 46 | 11 | 100% | 4.4 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 5.93 | 4.24 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 11 | 11 | 52 | 217 | 50 | 18 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 1.1% | 1.90 | 3.33 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 43 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.9% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 4.80 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 117 | 491 | 93 | 45 | 9 | — | — | 19.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | 3.51 | 4.14 | +1.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 15.9% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 112 | 475 | 86 | 44 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.63 | 4.56 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 124 | 526 | 103 | 48 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 123 | 518 | 102 | 48 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 98 | 47 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.54 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 114 | 479 | 92 | 46 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.68 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 37 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.85 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 68 | 32 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.66 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 79 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.69 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 83 | 39 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 81 | 40 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 72 | 429 | 1810 | 350 | 168 | 57 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.39 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 78 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 57 | 279 | 1197 | 195 | 107 | 24 | 95% | 4.6 | 16.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 4.33 | 3.97 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 41 | 200 | 859 | 140 | 77 | 17 | 95% | 4.6 | 16.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 4.33 | 3.97 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Mahoney (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 15.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.48 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 360 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 91 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 90 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 90 |
| Blaine Knight R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .263 | 4.58 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.12 | 4.16 | 269 | 90 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 90 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 88 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 88 |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.14 | 4.27 | 279 | 87 |
| Nick Brink R 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.05 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.5% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 113 | 87 |
| Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 16.9% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .317 | 4.33 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.61 | 428 | 86 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 86 |
| Tim Atherton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 86 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.08 | 15.9% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .266 | 5.68 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 29 | +1.60 | 3.93 | 223 | 85 |
| Ryan Hawks R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.72 | 13.9% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 5.48 | 14.6% | 3.7% | 67 | +0.76 | 4.72 | 304 | 85 |
| Elliot Morris R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 102 | 85 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.59 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .299 | 4.48 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.11 | 3.53 | 383 | 85 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 85 |
| Evan Yates R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.51 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 169 | 85 |
| Jake Thompson R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.47 | 13.2% | 9.7% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.86 | 17.9% | 2.3% | 28 | +0.39 | 3.50 | 212 | 84 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.36 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.88 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 157 | +0.52 | 4.04 | 402 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 114 | 18.8% | 9.4% | 1.05 | 4.58 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |