Baron Stuart — OGILVIE

Baron Stuart P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 120

ERA5.45

FIP5.45

K%15.1%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%0.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	101	440	85	46	12	90%	5.0	14.5%	12.2%	2.3%	3.3%	4.47	5.24	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	101	440	85	46	12	90%	5.0	14.5%	12.2%	2.3%	3.3%	4.47	5.24	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	18	101	440	85	46	12	90%	5.0	19.3%	10.5%	8.9%	2.7%	4.47	4.33	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	116	485	104	46	4	100%	5.0	17.1%	10.5%	6.6%	1.1%	3.49	3.57	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	116	485	104	46	4	100%	5.0	17.1%	10.5%	6.6%	1.1%	3.49	3.57	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	116	485	104	46	4	100%	5.0	21.4%	9.5%	12.0%	0.8%	3.49	2.94	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	6	60	258	50	40	4	18%	1.8	15.7%	16.1%	-0.4%	1.8%	4.37	4.78	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	6	60	258	50	40	4	18%	1.8	15.7%	16.1%	-0.4%	1.8%	4.37	4.78	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	6	60	258	50	40	4	18%	1.8	19.4%	15.5%	3.9%	1.6%	4.37	4.31	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	32	2	40	178	48	27	7	6%	1.2	22.0%	17.9%	4.1%	3.2%	5.22	5.29	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	32	2	40	178	48	27	7	6%	1.2	22.0%	17.9%	4.1%	3.2%	5.22	5.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	NYY	2	0	2	16	3	2	2	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	12.5%	15.43	9.96	—
2026	27	A+ RAW	NYY	29	2	36	154	44	24	4	7%	1.3	28.6%	15.6%	13.0%	2.6%	3.96	4.09	—
2026	27	AA RAW	NYY	1	0	1	8	1	1	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	12.5%	27.00	10.49	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	NYY	6	0	6	27	4	4	1	0%	1.1	15.1%	14.9%	0.2%	2.5%	5.45	5.45	-0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	46	205	52	31	8	—	—	25.4%	15.1%	10.3%	3.7%	5.25	5.32	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYY	65	0	68	287	45	41	8	0%	1.0	15.8%	14.5%	1.3%	2.6%	5.39	5.42	-0.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	62	0	65	274	44	39	8	0%	1.0	16.1%	14.3%	1.8%	2.8%	5.41	5.47	-0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYY	24	0	25	106	17	15	3	0%	1.0	15.8%	14.5%	1.3%	2.6%	5.39	5.42	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	34	0	36	152	25	22	4	0%	1.1	16.1%	14.3%	1.8%	2.8%	5.41	5.47	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	256	41	37	7	0%	1.0	16.0%	14.4%	1.6%	2.7%	5.40	5.07	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	135	122	23	0%	1.0	16.0%	14.4%	1.6%	2.7%	5.40	5.07	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		108	49	316	1361	226	178	30	45%	2.9	16.6%	13.1%	3.5%	2.2%	4.19	4.56	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	31	200	861	143	113	19	45%	2.9	16.6%	13.1%	3.5%	2.2%	4.19	4.56	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Baron Stuart (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.45	15.1%	14.9%	2.5%	—	5.44	16.0%	1.6%	133	-0.01	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	84
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	81
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	81
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	80
Casey Coleman R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	12.6%	11.4%	1.5%	.349	4.14	18.3%	8.9%	146	-0.18	2.95	306	80
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	79
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	77
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	76
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	76
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	75
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	75
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	74
Andrew Bash R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	17.6%	12.7%	2.6%	.249	4.07	16.7%	7.2%	231	-0.56	3.52	483	74
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	74
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	74
Endrys Briceno R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	26	SU	4.76	14.0%	13.2%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	303	73
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	73
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	73
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	73
Justin Brantley R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	26	SW	4.27	15.6%	13.5%	1.4%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	166	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	15.7%	14.6%	1.02	5.42
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39