Baron Stuart

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	23	23	116	3.49	2.94	21.4%	9.5%	—	K 17.1% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.57
2025	26	MIX2 levels	33	6	60	4.37	4.31	19.4%	15.5%	—	K 15.8% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.77
2026	27	MIX3 levels	32	2	40	5.22	5.02	27.0%	15.2%	—	K 22.0% · BB 17.9% · FIP 5.29
2027PROJ	28	MLBNYY	—	—	0	5.67	5.67	17.4%	16.9%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	29	MLBNYY	11	0	12	5.61	5.67	17.7%	16.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBNYY	16	0	17	5.65	5.74	17.8%	16.1%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control30Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAlex Caldera (age 29) · Dennis O'Grady (age 26) · Brad Allen (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.67

FIP5.67

K%17.4%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%0.4%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	101	440	85	46	12	90%	5.0	14.5%	12.2%	2.3%	3.3%	4.47	5.24	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	18	101	440	85	46	12	90%	5.0	19.3%	10.5%	8.9%	2.7%	4.47	4.33	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	116	485	104	46	4	100%	5.0	17.1%	10.5%	6.6%	1.1%	3.49	3.57	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	116	485	104	46	4	100%	5.0	17.1%	10.5%	6.6%	1.1%	3.49	3.57	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	116	485	104	46	4	100%	5.0	21.4%	9.5%	12.0%	0.8%	3.49	2.94	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	6	60	258	50	40	4	18%	1.8	15.8%	16.1%	-0.3%	1.8%	4.37	4.77	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	6	60	258	50	40	4	18%	1.8	15.8%	16.1%	-0.3%	1.8%	4.37	4.77	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	6	60	258	50	40	4	18%	1.8	19.4%	15.5%	3.9%	1.6%	4.37	4.31	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	2	40	178	48	27	7	6%	1.2	22.0%	17.9%	4.1%	3.2%	5.22	5.29	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	2	40	178	48	27	7	6%	1.2	22.0%	17.9%	4.1%	3.2%	5.22	5.29	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	2	40	178	48	27	7	6%	1.2	27.0%	15.2%	11.8%	3.9%	5.22	5.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.4%	16.9%	0.4%	2.8%	5.67	5.67	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	39	0	41	172	31	28	5	0%	1.0	17.7%	16.4%	1.4%	2.9%	5.61	5.67	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYY	31	0	33	139	25	22	4	0%	1.1	17.8%	16.1%	1.7%	3.1%	5.65	5.74	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	11	0	12	51	9	8	1	0%	1.1	17.7%	16.4%	1.4%	2.9%	5.61	5.67	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYY	16	0	17	72	13	12	2	0%	1.1	17.8%	16.1%	1.7%	3.1%	5.65	5.74	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	0	29	123	22	20	4	0%	1.0	17.8%	16.2%	1.5%	3.0%	5.63	5.33	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	138	28	0%	1.1	17.8%	16.2%	1.5%	3.0%	5.63	5.33	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		108	49	316	1361	226	178	30	45%	2.9	16.6%	13.1%	3.6%	2.2%	4.19	4.56	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	31	200	861	143	113	19	45%	2.9	16.6%	13.1%	3.6%	2.2%	4.19	4.56	-2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 36 IPFIP 4.09 → 5.29 (+1.21)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.770	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.58%	—	×1.150	17.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.09 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 45 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.54 (+0.71)K% 23.6% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.56%	—	×0.810	19.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.66%	—	×1.100	16.13%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷1.030	×1.200	1.83%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 15 IPFIP 5.56 → 5.44 (−0.12)K% 7.5% → 6.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	7.46%	—	×0.860	6.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.91%	—	×0.900	16.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷1.070	×1.100	1.53%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 5.56 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 109 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.57 (+0.70)K% 22.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.17%	—	×0.770	17.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.13%	—	×1.150	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.87%	÷1.032	×1.250	1.05%

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 7 IPFIP 4.45 → 4.34 (−0.11)K% 8.0% → 6.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	8.00%	—	×0.860	6.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×0.900	14.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.045	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.45 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ATampa Tarpons · 63 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.88 (+0.94)K% 20.6% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.58%	—	×0.740	15.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.39%	—	×1.180	11.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷1.086	×1.300	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 38 IPFIP 4.89 → 5.86 (+0.97)K% 17.2% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.18%	—	×0.770	13.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.27%	—	×1.150	14.11%
HR / BF /BF	3.07%	÷1.006	×1.250	3.81%

Result: FIP 4.89 → 5.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Baron Stuart (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.67	17.4%	16.9%	2.8%	—	5.70	17.8%	1.5%	74	+0.03	—	—	—
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	74
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	73
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	71
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	69
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	68
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	68
Jared Mortensen R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	28	SU	4.99	20.9%	18.8%	2.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	200	68
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	68
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	68
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	68
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	67
Jared Fernandez R 2001 · 4.66 FIP	29	SW	4.66	8.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.267	3.95	14.0%	5.6%	89	-0.71	3.57	101	67
Juan Paniagua R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SW	4.75	12.9%	13.9%	1.8%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	151	66
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	66
Jake Walters R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SW	5.85	15.2%	13.9%	4.2%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	261	66
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	66
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	66
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	66
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	66
Kaleb Roper R 2022 · 5.67 FIP	26	SW	5.67	17.3%	11.8%	4.6%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	146	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	17.6%	16.6%	1.12	5.65
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*