Carter Spivey
P
Akron RubberDucks
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 193 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.2%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%9.1%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 24 | 24 | 125 | 519 | 96 | 48 | 7 | 14.2% | 10.6% | 1.4% | 3.32 | 4.00 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 15 | 4 | 36 | 148 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 14.9% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 4.21 | 6.08 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 42 | 22 | 7 | 19.2% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 43 | 22 | 7 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 43 | 22 | 7 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 41 | 21 | 6 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 39 | 20 | 6 | 19.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 37 | 20 | 6 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 32 | 19 | 6 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 5.22 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 27 | 17 | 6 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.35 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 28 | 161 | 667 | 96 | 72 | 15 | 14.4% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 4.46 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 35 | 200 | 829 | 119 | 89 | 19 | 14.4% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 4.46 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carter Spivey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 19.2% | 10.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.74 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 153 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 90 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 90 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 90 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 89 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 89 |
| Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.79 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .266 | 4.46 | 14.3% | 2.3% | 36 | +0.67 | 3.75 | 154 | 89 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 88 |
| Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 88 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 135 | 87 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.53 | 17.1% | 4.9% | 50 | -0.78 | 3.42 | 219 | 87 |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 199 | 87 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.44 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .304 | 3.25 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 51 | -1.19 | 3.01 | 214 | 87 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 87 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .320 | 4.89 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | -0.06 | 3.69 | 239 | 86 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 86 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 86 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 86 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 86 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 86 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 86 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.