Carter Spivey
P
Akron RubberDucks
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 193 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
K%19.2%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%9.1%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 24 | 24 | 125 | 519 | 96 | 48 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 14.2% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 3.32 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 24 | 24 | 125 | 519 | 96 | 48 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 1.3% | 3.32 | 3.44 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 4 | 36 | 148 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 27% | 2.4 | 14.9% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.21 | 6.38 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 4 | 36 | 148 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 27% | 2.4 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 4.21 | 4.97 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 6 | 6 | 37 | 155 | 30 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 6 | 6 | 33 | 141 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 2 | 2 | 14 | 59 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 7.0 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 3 | 3 | 21 | 89 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 7.0 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 48 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.48 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 86 | 28 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.48 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 39 | 28 | 161 | 667 | 96 | 72 | 15 | 72% | 4.1 | 14.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 4.46 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 35 | 200 | 829 | 119 | 90 | 18 | 72% | 4.1 | 14.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carter Spivey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 19.2% | 10.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.85 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 104 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 81 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 78 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 77 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 77 |
| Jake Dunning R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 77 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 76 |
| Justin Topa R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 76 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 4.92 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 116 | +0.26 | 2.20 | 286 | 76 |
| Chase Centala R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 75 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 75 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 75 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 74 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 74 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 74 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 74 |
| Brandt Thompson R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 162 | 73 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 73 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.93 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .257 | 2.73 | 17.2% | 12.8% | 36 | -2.20 | 2.73 | 357 | 73 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 73 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 35 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 1.21 | 4.80 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |