Carter Spivey — OGILVIE

Carter Spivey P Akron RubberDucks

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 193 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%15.9%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%5.2%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	24	24	125	519	96	48	7	100%	5.2	14.2%	10.6%	3.6%	1.4%	3.32	4.02	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	24	24	125	519	96	48	7	100%	5.2	14.2%	10.6%	3.6%	1.4%	3.32	4.02	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	24	24	125	519	96	48	7	100%	5.2	18.5%	9.2%	9.2%	1.3%	3.32	3.44	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	4	36	148	29	16	6	27%	2.4	14.9%	11.4%	3.5%	5.2%	4.21	6.14	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	4	36	148	29	16	6	27%	2.4	14.9%	11.4%	3.5%	5.2%	4.21	6.14	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	4	36	148	29	16	6	27%	2.4	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	4.1%	4.21	4.97	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CLE	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	15.9%	10.7%	5.2%	3.0%	5.14	5.14	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	110	467	77	49	14	100%	6.1	16.5%	10.5%	6.0%	3.0%	5.07	5.09	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	107	453	76	47	14	100%	6.0	16.8%	10.4%	6.4%	3.1%	5.07	5.11	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	102	432	73	45	14	100%	6.0	16.8%	10.5%	6.3%	3.3%	5.13	5.19	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	96	407	68	44	14	100%	6.0	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	3.5%	5.25	5.35	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	42	177	29	19	5	100%	6.0	16.5%	10.5%	6.0%	3.0%	5.07	5.09	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	64	270	45	28	8	100%	5.8	16.8%	10.4%	6.4%	3.1%	5.07	5.11	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	72	304	51	32	10	100%	6.0	16.8%	10.5%	6.3%	3.3%	5.13	5.19	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	75	317	53	34	11	100%	6.2	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	3.5%	5.25	5.35	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	253	1069	179	113	35	100%	6.0	16.7%	10.6%	6.2%	3.3%	5.14	4.82	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	141	89	28	100%	6.1	16.7%	10.6%	6.2%	3.3%	5.14	4.82	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		39	28	161	667	96	72	15	72%	4.1	14.4%	10.8%	3.6%	2.3%	3.52	4.49	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	35	200	829	119	90	19	72%	4.1	14.4%	10.8%	3.6%	2.3%	3.52	4.49	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carter Spivey (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	15.9%	10.7%	3.0%	—	5.13	16.7%	6.2%	320	-0.01	—	—	—
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	83
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	82
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	81
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	80
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	78
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	78
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	78
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	77
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	77
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	76
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	75
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	75
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	75
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	75
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	74
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	74
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	74
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	91	16.6%	10.5%	1.24	5.13
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58