Carter Spivey

P Akron RubberDucks

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 193 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+CLE	24	24	125	3.32	3.44	18.5%	9.2%	—	K 14.2% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.02
2025	25	MIX2 levels	15	4	36	4.21	4.97	19.6%	10.8%	—	K 14.9% · BB 11.4% · FIP 6.14
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBCLE	1	1	1	5.02	5.02	17.4%	10.5%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCLE	2	2	11	5.00	5.04	17.8%	10.6%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · Justin Topa (age 27) · Zach Stewart (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%17.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	24	24	125	519	96	48	7	100%	5.2	14.2%	10.6%	3.6%	1.4%	3.32	4.02	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	24	24	125	519	96	48	7	100%	5.2	14.2%	10.6%	3.6%	1.4%	3.32	4.02	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	24	24	125	519	96	48	7	100%	5.2	18.5%	9.2%	9.2%	1.3%	3.32	3.44	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	4	36	148	29	16	6	27%	2.4	14.9%	11.4%	3.5%	5.2%	4.21	6.14	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	4	36	148	29	16	6	27%	2.4	14.9%	11.4%	3.5%	5.2%	4.21	6.14	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	4	36	148	29	16	6	27%	2.4	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	4.1%	4.21	4.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CLE	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	17.4%	10.5%	6.8%	3.1%	5.02	5.02	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	5	5	30	126	22	13	4	100%	6.0	17.8%	10.6%	7.3%	3.1%	5.00	5.04	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	2	2	11	46	8	5	1	100%	5.5	17.8%	10.6%	7.3%	3.1%	5.00	5.04	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	11	47	8	5	1	100%	5.6	17.9%	10.6%	7.3%	3.1%	5.00	4.66	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	143	89	18	100%	6.0	17.9%	10.6%	7.3%	3.1%	5.00	4.66	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		39	28	161	667	96	72	15	72%	4.1	14.4%	10.8%	3.6%	2.3%	3.52	4.49	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	35	200	829	119	90	19	72%	4.1	14.4%	10.8%	3.6%	2.3%	3.52	4.49	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAkron RubberDucks · 30 IPFIP 5.06 → 6.14 (+1.08)K% 18.4% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.40%	—	×0.810	14.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.40%	—	×1.100	11.44%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷0.926	×1.200	5.18%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 5.06 → 6.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 6 IPFIP 4.94 → 5.10 (+0.16)K% 26.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.860	22.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×0.900	11.74%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.093	×1.100	4.38%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 4.94 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Lake County Captains · 125 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.02 (+0.57)K% 18.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.50%	—	×0.770	14.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.25%	—	×1.150	10.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.190	×1.250	1.42%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carter Spivey (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	17.4%	10.5%	3.1%	—	5.04	17.8%	7.3%	30	+0.02	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	86
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	81
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	79
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	79
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	78
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	78
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	77
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	75
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	75
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	74
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	74
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	74
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	72
Max Beatty R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	13.2%	6.4%	2.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	117	71
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	71
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	71
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	70
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	70
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	70
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	17.6%	10.5%	1.20	5.01
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*