Grant Rogers
P
Buffalo Bisons
+1.3
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'7" / 230 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.5 · 2027
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.3%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%10.2%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2027
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 21 | 20 | 112 | 457 | 106 | 28 | 10 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 3.87 | 4.08 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 28 | 28 | 150 | 646 | 115 | 38 | 10 | 14.2% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 3.47 | 3.89 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 3 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 6 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 8.71 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 88 | 36 | 13 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 130 | 555 | 94 | 41 | 14 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.02 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 100 | 38 | 14 | 18.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.29 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 103 | 40 | 15 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.29 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 104 | 40 | 15 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 102 | 40 | 15 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.36 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 97 | 39 | 15 | 18.7% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 93 | 38 | 15 | 18.5% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 88 | 37 | 15 | 18.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 82 | 37 | 14 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 77 | 36 | 14 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 71 | 34 | 14 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 64 | 33 | 13 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.05 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 58 | 32 | 13 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.19 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 51 | 272 | 1151 | 177 | 81 | 27 | 15.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 3.83 | 3.99 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 845 | 130 | 59 | 20 | 15.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 3.83 | 3.99 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Rogers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.30 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 387 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Casey Delgado R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.90 | 14.3% | 5.6% | 2.4% | .283 | 4.08 | 13.7% | 3.9% | 259 | +0.18 | 3.90 | 364 | 91 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 90 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 4.02 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.14 | 3.45 | 274 | 90 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 90 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.45 | 16.6% | 5.4% | 1.9% | .352 | 4.28 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 124 | +0.83 | 3.45 | 270 | 89 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.24 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 1.4% | .291 | 3.82 | 13.8% | 5.0% | 105 | +0.58 | 3.24 | 211 | 89 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.79 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.78 | 3.40 | 289 | 89 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.36 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 1.9% | .290 | 4.48 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 102 | +1.12 | 3.36 | 197 | 89 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 88 |
| Alex Colomé R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 88 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 88 |
| Brennan Smith R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.27 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 1.2% | .291 | 10.48 | 6.4% | -6.6% | 14 | +7.21 | 3.27 | 116 | 88 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 88 |
| Terance Marin R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.60 | 13.4% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .291 | 4.98 | 11.2% | 3.5% | 110 | +1.38 | 3.60 | 322 | 87 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.65 | 17.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | .312 | 3.74 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 198 | +0.09 | 3.57 | 302 | 87 |
| Mason Adams R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 229 | 87 |
| David Hale R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 87 |
| Wes Parsons R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.56 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 1.9% | .274 | 4.00 | 18.5% | 6.1% | 91 | +0.44 | 3.00 | 483 | 87 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2024 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 87 |
| Mitch Myers R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | .338 | 3.57 | 18.5% | 14.5% | 23 | -0.75 | 3.57 | 362 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +1.2 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.1 | $11M | +$7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +0.9 | $4M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $14M | $64M | +$50M | ||