Grant Rogers
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 25
RHP
6'7" / 230 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122112vR 103
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
K%14.2%
BB%5.6%
K-BB%8.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 112 | 457 | 106 | 28 | 10 | 95% | 5.3 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 3.87 | 4.07 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 112 | 457 | 106 | 28 | 10 | 95% | 5.3 | 23.2% | 6.1% | 17.1% | 2.2% | 3.87 | 3.12 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 150 | 646 | 115 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 14.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 2.4% | 3.47 | 4.08 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 150 | 646 | 115 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.8% | 5.9% | 11.9% | 1.5% | 3.47 | 3.19 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 17 | 17 | 80 | 353 | 48 | 24 | 13 | 100% | 4.7 | 12.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.42 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 39 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.2% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.2% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 144 | 627 | 87 | 39 | 21 | — | — | 13.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 4.90 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 6 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 14.2% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.14 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 113 | 40 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.3% | 5.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 27 | 27 | 162 | 686 | 114 | 41 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.7% | 6.0% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 26 | 26 | 158 | 665 | 112 | 41 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 25 | 25 | 150 | 635 | 106 | 41 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.61 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 24 | 142 | 597 | 98 | 40 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.4% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.79 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 89 | 40 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.99 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 55 | 19 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.3% | 5.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 75 | 27 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.7% | 6.0% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 122 | 515 | 87 | 32 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 88 | 34 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.61 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 85 | 35 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.4% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.79 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 80 | 35 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.99 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 114 | 114 | 680 | 2872 | 473 | 184 | 90 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.24 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 139 | 54 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 65 | 342 | 1456 | 213 | 101 | 43 | 98% | 5.2 | 14.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.35 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 38 | 200 | 852 | 125 | 59 | 25 | 98% | 5.2 | 14.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.35 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Rogers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 14.2% | 5.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.42 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 485 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Lindsey Caughel R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.45 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .276 | 5.33 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 29 | +0.88 | 4.45 | 187 | 88 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.37 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 85 |
| Brandon Sinnery R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.67 | 11.0% | 6.9% | 3.0% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 154 | 84 |
| Chase Anderson R 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.86 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.60 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.74 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 84 |
| Jake Sanchez R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.22 | 12.8% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .333 | 2.80 | 20.8% | 15.0% | 124 | -1.42 | 1.86 | 361 | 84 |
| Greg Peavey R 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.27 | 11.2% | 6.5% | 2.4% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 147 | 83 |
| Tommy Collier R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.50 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 1.3% | .301 | 4.38 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 131 | +0.88 | 3.50 | 286 | 83 |
| Taylor Cole R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .319 | 3.62 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 168 | -0.69 | 3.44 | 433 | 83 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.16 | 14.8% | 6.5% | 2.7% | .264 | 3.95 | 23.7% | 18.5% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.80 | 284 | 83 |
| Albert Suárez R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.04 | 15.0% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .268 | 4.21 | 17.3% | 9.2% | 225 | +0.17 | 3.59 | 577 | 82 |
| Bryan Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.41 | 11.3% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .329 | 3.96 | 9.8% | 2.9% | 127 | -0.45 | 3.96 | 418 | 82 |
| Blayne Weller R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.15 | 16.0% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .326 | 5.67 | 17.6% | 8.4% | 103 | +1.52 | 4.15 | 254 | 82 |
| Shane Greene R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 81 |
| James Needy R 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.93 | 14.2% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .326 | 2.82 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 36 | -2.11 | 2.82 | 167 | 81 |
| Austin Coley R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.55 | 15.5% | 5.7% | 1.9% | .303 | 4.68 | 10.9% | 1.8% | 75 | +1.13 | 3.55 | 506 | 81 |
| Jordan Romano R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.55 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 3.5% | .274 | 3.78 | 31.7% | 22.0% | 131 | -0.77 | 2.40 | 670 | 81 |
| Austin Peterson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 18.3% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .281 | 4.27 | 22.6% | 11.9% | 56 | +0.29 | 2.67 | 479 | 81 |
| Brian Howard R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.76 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .356 | 5.55 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 180 | +1.79 | 3.70 | 490 | 80 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.60 | 12.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .302 | 4.01 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 233 | -0.59 | 3.86 | 368 | 80 |
| Chandler Champlain R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.75 | 16.9% | 9.3% | 3.5% | .298 | 4.76 | 14.9% | 7.1% | 202 | +0.01 | 4.26 | 583 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 153 | 16.1% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 4.55 |
| Iván Nova ('19) | 5 | 158 | 16.3% | 5.3% | 1.38 | 4.40 |
| Marco Gonzales ('24) | 8 | 111 | 17.5% | 6.1% | 1.26 | 4.13 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Tanner Roark ('20) | 6 | 149 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 4.19 |
| Jeff Samardzija ('19) | 5 | 170 | 20.0% | 5.9% | 1.24 | 4.31 |
| Matt Harvey ('21) | 6 | 120 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 1.33 | 4.98 |