Grant Rogers — OGILVIE

Grant Rogers P Buffalo Bisons

Age 25 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION124 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%14.2%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD3560

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	112	457	106	28	10	95%	5.3	17.4%	7.2%	10.2%	2.8%	3.87	4.08	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	112	457	106	28	10	95%	5.3	17.4%	7.2%	10.2%	2.8%	3.87	4.08	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	112	457	106	28	10	95%	5.3	23.2%	6.1%	17.1%	2.2%	3.87	3.12	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	150	646	115	38	10	100%	5.4	14.2%	6.6%	7.6%	2.1%	3.47	3.90	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	150	646	115	38	10	100%	5.4	14.2%	6.6%	7.6%	2.1%	3.47	3.90	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	150	646	115	38	10	100%	5.4	17.8%	5.9%	11.9%	1.5%	3.47	3.19	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	27	27	124	569	73	41	21	100%	4.6	10.6%	6.5%	4.2%	4.1%	6.77	5.25	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	27	27	124	569	73	41	21	100%	4.6	10.6%	6.5%	4.2%	4.1%	6.77	5.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	TOR	27	27	124	569	73	41	21	100%	4.6	12.8%	7.2%	5.6%	3.7%	6.77	4.96	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TOR	2	2	13	55	8	3	1	100%	6.6	14.2%	6.0%	8.2%	2.7%	4.51	4.51	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	TOR	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	14.2%	6.0%	8.2%	2.7%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	137	624	81	44	22	—	—	13.0%	7.1%	5.8%	3.6%	6.55	5.18	-0.4
FULL	25	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	1	6	1	0	0	—	—	14.2%	6.0%	8.2%	2.7%	4.51	4.13	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TOR	29	29	172	726	118	45	20	100%	5.9	16.3%	6.2%	10.1%	2.7%	4.41	4.37	+1.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	29	29	173	732	122	46	20	100%	6.0	16.7%	6.3%	10.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.39	+1.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	TOR	29	29	173	732	123	48	21	100%	6.0	16.8%	6.6%	10.2%	2.9%	4.44	4.47	+0.9
2030	29	MLB MLE	TOR	28	28	166	699	117	48	21	100%	5.9	16.7%	6.8%	9.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.60	+0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	TOR	26	26	156	657	108	47	21	100%	6.0	16.4%	7.1%	9.2%	3.2%	4.68	4.77	+0.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	145	613	98	46	21	100%	6.0	16.0%	7.5%	8.5%	3.5%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
2033	32	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	134	567	88	45	21	100%	6.1	15.5%	7.9%	7.6%	3.7%	5.07	5.20	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	83	350	57	22	9	100%	5.9	16.3%	6.2%	10.1%	2.7%	4.41	4.37	+0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	115	486	81	31	13	100%	6.1	16.7%	6.3%	10.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.39	+0.7
2029	28	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	134	566	95	37	16	100%	6.1	16.8%	6.6%	10.2%	2.9%	4.44	4.47	+0.7
2030	29	MLB CTX	TOR	23	23	137	578	97	39	18	100%	6.0	16.7%	6.8%	9.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.60	+0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	135	570	93	41	18	100%	6.1	16.4%	7.1%	9.2%	3.2%	4.68	4.77	+0.2
2032	31	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	130	549	88	41	19	100%	5.9	16.0%	7.5%	8.5%	3.5%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
2033	32	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	122	515	80	41	19	100%	6.1	15.5%	7.9%	7.6%	3.7%	5.07	5.20	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	143	857	3617	591	251	113	100%	6.0	16.3%	6.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.64	4.32	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	138	59	26	100%	6.0	16.3%	6.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.64	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		76	75	386	1672	232	112	50	99%	5.1	13.9%	6.7%	7.1%	3.0%	4.64	4.41	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	867	120	58	26	99%	5.1	13.9%	6.7%	7.1%	3.0%	4.64	4.41	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	14.2%	6.0%	2.7%	—	4.41	16.6%	10.2%	519	-0.10	—	—	—
Lindsey Caughel R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	14.6%	6.5%	3.3%	.276	5.12	13.3%	5.0%	29	+0.63	4.49	187	87
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	86
Brandon Sinnery R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP	4.73	11.0%	6.9%	3.1%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	154	85
Greg Peavey R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	27	SP	4.39	11.2%	6.5%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.39	147	84
Jake Sanchez R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	25	SP	4.19	12.8%	7.1%	2.3%	.333	2.78	20.8%	15.0%	124	-1.41	1.86	361	84
Zach Petrick R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	26	SP	3.41	14.8%	4.2%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	157	84
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.27	13.7%	6.7%	376	-0.13	3.78	501	84
Tommy Collier R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	14.1%	6.7%	1.4%	.301	4.51	12.5%	5.7%	131	+0.97	3.54	286	84
Taylor Cole R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	15.0%	8.8%	2.8%	.319	3.66	20.8%	12.1%	168	-0.80	3.49	433	83
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	83
Chase Anderson R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.48	3.30	1,146	83
Bryan Rodriguez R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP	4.47	11.3%	7.3%	2.5%	.329	4.03	9.8%	2.9%	127	-0.44	3.94	418	83
Shane Greene R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	13.0%	6.6%	3.0%	.309	3.60	24.1%	15.6%	191	-0.90	2.86	484	82
James Needy R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	14.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.326	2.82	18.1%	8.2%	36	-1.90	2.82	167	82
Albert Suárez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.0%	6.7%	2.5%	.268	4.24	17.3%	9.2%	225	+0.17	3.58	596	82
Angel Sánchez R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	25	SP	3.94	14.8%	6.5%	2.3%	.264	3.80	23.7%	18.5%	68	-0.14	3.80	284	82
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	82
Jordan Romano R 2018 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.7%	7.9%	3.3%	.274	3.78	31.7%	22.0%	131	-0.65	2.40	687	81
Brian Howard R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP	3.76	17.6%	8.1%	2.0%	.356	5.50	17.6%	8.5%	180	+1.74	3.67	490	81
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	161	16.1%	6.8%	1.17	4.59
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45