Kyle Luckham
P
Harrisburg Senators
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA4.64
FIP4.64
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%15.9%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%8.1%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
K†3040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 7 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.97 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 26 | 25 | 129 | 553 | 106 | 30 | 12 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.36 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 27 | 25 | 144 | 619 | 103 | 35 | 20 | 13.6% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 5.06 | 4.83 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 27 | 25 | 134 | 581 | 93 | 43 | 9 | 13.2% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 4.09 | 4.06 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 3 | 2 | 13 | 72 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 12.4% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 8.53 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 80 | 39 | 14 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 133 | 579 | 91 | 45 | 16 | 15.8% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 86 | 41 | 15 | 16.5% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 88 | 41 | 15 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.61 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 509 | 86 | 40 | 15 | 17.0% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 84 | 40 | 15 | 16.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 79 | 39 | 14 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 75 | 38 | 14 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.80 | 4.85 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 70 | 37 | 14 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.95 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 65 | 36 | 14 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 5.06 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 60 | 35 | 13 | 15.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 5.10 | 5.18 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 55 | 33 | 13 | 14.9% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 5.23 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 90 | 77 | 432 | 1869 | 259 | 128 | 54 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.39 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 36 | 200 | 866 | 120 | 59 | 25 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.39 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Luckham (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.62 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 367 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Frank Batista R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 94 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 93 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 92 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.54 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.56 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.98 | 2.84 | 484 | 91 |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 91 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 334 | 90 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 90 |
| Nick Petree R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.15 | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 122 | 90 |
| Scott McGregor R 2028 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 89 |
| Mike Augliera R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 114 | 89 |
| Keith Couch R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.08 | 11.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 252 | 89 |
| Colin Bates R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.57 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 111 | 88 |
| Zeke Spruill R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.94 | 11.8% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 114 | 88 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 88 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 88 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.25 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -1.02 | 3.92 | 272 | 88 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.82 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 211 | 88 |
| Caleb Clay R 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.67 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 111 | 87 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 87 |
| Mike McCarthy R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.78 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .280 | 5.08 | 6.2% | -3.5% | 37 | +0.30 | 4.78 | 153 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.4 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.3 | $2M | -$6M |
| Totals | $11M | $17M | +$6M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.