Kyle Luckham
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 84 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 116
ERA5.14
FIP5.14
K%11.2%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%2.7%
ROS IP84
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 163 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.5% | 2.3% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 3.97 | 1.66 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.5% | 2.3% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 3.97 | 1.78 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 129 | 553 | 106 | 30 | 12 | 96% | 5.0 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.58 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 129 | 553 | 106 | 30 | 12 | 96% | 5.0 | 19.2% | 5.4% | 13.7% | 2.2% | 4.87 | 3.36 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 144 | 619 | 103 | 35 | 20 | 93% | 5.3 | 13.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 5.06 | 4.86 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 144 | 619 | 103 | 35 | 20 | 93% | 5.3 | 16.6% | 5.7% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 5.06 | 4.20 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 134 | 581 | 93 | 43 | 9 | 93% | 5.0 | 13.2% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 4.09 | 4.10 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 134 | 581 | 93 | 43 | 9 | 93% | 5.0 | 16.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 1.5% | 4.09 | 3.55 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 17 | 10 | 79 | 372 | 69 | 25 | 7 | 59% | 4.6 | 15.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 5.47 | 4.01 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 84 | 356 | 40 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 11.2% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 11.2% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 163 | 728 | 109 | 55 | 17 | — | — | 15.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 5.30 | 4.59 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 11.2% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 89 | 375 | 46 | 32 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 12.3% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.08 | 5.09 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 47 | 31 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 12.9% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 5.11 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 46 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.14 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 5 | 5 | 33 | 139 | 17 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.6 | 12.3% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.08 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 12.9% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 32 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.14 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 24 | 144 | 609 | 78 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 12.8% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 4.76 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 108 | 73 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 12.8% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 104 | 85 | 498 | 2169 | 306 | 149 | 63 | 82% | 4.8 | 14.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 4.79 | 4.37 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 34 | 200 | 871 | 123 | 60 | 25 | 82% | 4.8 | 14.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 4.79 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Luckham (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.14 | 11.2% | 8.5% | 2.8% | — | 5.13 | 12.8% | 4.2% | 257 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Cooper R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 89 |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 88 |
| Caleb Clay R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.63 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 111 | 86 |
| Frank Batista R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 86 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.37 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.25 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 275 | 84 |
| Braden Olthoff R 2023 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.57 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 108 | 84 |
| Allen Webster R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 84 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.25 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 334 | 84 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 83 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.34 | 9.0% | 6.4% | 2.1% | .262 | 4.97 | 11.9% | 6.3% | 135 | +0.63 | 4.34 | 300 | 83 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 83 |
| Elliot Morris R 2023 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 102 | 83 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 82 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.98 | 12.8% | 6.8% | 2.0% | .344 | 3.69 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 152 | -0.29 | 2.75 | 299 | 82 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.06 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.19 | 4.25 | 412 | 81 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.64 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .314 | 4.52 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.12 | 4.02 | 748 | 81 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .297 | 3.33 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.90 | 2.82 | 536 | 81 |
| Scarlyn Reyes R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.59 | 13.9% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .321 | 4.87 | 13.7% | 5.3% | 70 | +0.28 | 4.39 | 317 | 80 |
| Kevin Biondic R 2023 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.39 | 8.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.39 | 100 | 80 |
| Nick Petree R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.12 | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 122 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 87 | 12.4% | 8.6% | 1.14 | 5.11 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Jeff Locke ('17) | 3 | 109 | 15.7% | 8.2% | 0.99 | 5.22 |
| Mike Pelfrey ('17) | 3 | 135 | 12.3% | 8.5% | 1.14 | 4.99 |
| Doug Fister ('18) | 4 | 110 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 1.19 | 4.56 |
| Chi Chi González ('22) | 4 | 64 | 13.3% | 9.0% | 1.41 | 5.44 |
| Daniel Mengden ('19) | 4 | 73 | 17.3% | 7.7% | 1.24 | 4.68 |