Kyle Luckham — OGILVIE

Kyle Luckham P Harrisburg Senators

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AA peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION98 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%11.1%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%2.8%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	11	44	9	1	0	0%	1.6	20.5%	2.3%	18.2%	0.0%	3.97	1.66	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	11	44	9	1	0	0%	1.6	20.5%	2.3%	18.2%	0.0%	3.97	1.78	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	129	553	106	30	12	96%	5.0	14.5%	6.5%	8.0%	3.1%	4.87	4.40	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	129	553	106	30	12	96%	5.0	14.5%	6.5%	8.0%	3.1%	4.87	4.40	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	129	553	106	30	12	96%	5.0	19.2%	5.4%	13.7%	2.2%	4.87	3.36	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	144	619	103	35	20	93%	5.3	13.5%	5.9%	7.6%	3.8%	5.06	4.81	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	144	619	103	35	20	93%	5.3	13.5%	5.9%	7.6%	3.8%	5.06	4.81	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	144	619	103	35	20	93%	5.3	16.6%	5.7%	11.0%	3.2%	5.06	4.20	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	134	581	93	43	9	93%	5.0	13.0%	7.9%	5.2%	1.9%	4.09	4.04	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	134	581	93	43	9	93%	5.0	13.0%	7.9%	5.2%	1.9%	4.09	4.04	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	134	581	93	43	9	93%	5.0	16.0%	7.4%	8.6%	1.5%	4.09	3.55	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	28	10	98	459	85	31	7	36%	3.5	15.0%	7.4%	7.6%	1.8%	5.05	3.78	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	28	10	98	459	85	31	7	36%	3.5	15.0%	7.4%	7.6%	1.8%	5.05	3.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	WSH	28	10	98	459	85	31	7	36%	3.5	18.5%	6.8%	11.8%	1.5%	5.05	3.23	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	WSH	7	0	7	30	3	2	1	0%	1.0	11.1%	8.2%	2.8%	2.8%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	105	489	88	33	8	—	—	18.1%	6.8%	11.2%	1.6%	5.05	3.87	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	128	539	65	44	15	100%	6.4	12.1%	8.2%	3.9%	2.8%	5.04	5.05	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	124	523	67	44	15	100%	6.5	12.8%	8.3%	4.4%	2.9%	5.04	5.08	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	118	499	65	43	15	100%	6.6	13.0%	8.5%	4.5%	3.1%	5.10	5.16	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	111	470	60	41	15	100%	6.5	12.9%	8.8%	4.0%	3.3%	5.22	5.32	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	48	203	25	17	6	100%	6.9	12.1%	8.2%	3.9%	2.8%	5.04	5.05	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	74	312	40	26	9	100%	6.7	12.8%	8.3%	4.4%	2.9%	5.04	5.08	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	84	355	46	30	11	100%	6.5	13.0%	8.5%	4.5%	3.1%	5.10	5.16	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	87	367	47	32	12	100%	6.2	12.9%	8.8%	4.0%	3.3%	5.22	5.32	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	45	293	1236	158	105	38	98%	6.4	12.7%	8.5%	4.2%	3.1%	5.11	4.79	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	108	72	26	100%	6.4	12.7%	8.5%	4.2%	3.1%	5.11	4.79	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		115	85	517	2256	318	153	60	74%	4.5	14.1%	6.8%	7.3%	2.7%	4.74	4.24	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	33	200	873	123	59	23	74%	4.5	14.1%	6.8%	7.3%	2.7%	4.74	4.24	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Luckham (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	11.1%	8.2%	2.8%	—	5.10	12.6%	4.2%	370	-0.00	—	—	—
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	89
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	89
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	88
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	87
Tony Bucciferro R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	25	SP-	5.11	6.8%	6.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	5.11	107	86
Terance Marin R 2016 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP-	4.91	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	.294	4.22	12.4%	7.5%	88	-0.69	3.54	322	86
Mike Augliera R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP-	4.27	12.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	114	86
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	86
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	86
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	86
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	83
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	83
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	82
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	82
Grahamm Wiest R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP-	5.13	11.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	120	81
Ivan Zavala R 2015 · 4.51 FIP	28	SP-	4.51	7.0%	4.7%	2.6%	.312	4.73	12.2%	4.3%	50	+0.22	4.27	209	81
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	80
Matt Benedict R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SP-	4.00	10.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	130	80
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	80
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	114	12.4%	8.4%	1.16	5.10
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Matt Manning ('24)	1.3	64	16.4%	7.8%	1.06	4.43
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36