Ryan Hawks
P
Arkansas Travelers
+0.3
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 235 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.9 · 2028
ERA4.83
FIP4.83
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.7%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%9.3%
IP118
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2028
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 6 | 6 | 13 | 54 | 14 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.77 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 25 | 25 | 121 | 537 | 95 | 34 | 22 | 13.6% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 5.59 | 5.20 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 22 | 21 | 116 | 475 | 86 | 34 | 13 | 13.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 3.79 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 3 | 2 | 15 | 61 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 19.9% | 5.4% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 2.10 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SEA | 21 | 21 | 118 | 497 | 88 | 42 | 16 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 133 | 558 | 103 | 45 | 16 | 18.4% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 23 | 23 | 125 | 527 | 99 | 44 | 17 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.71 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 23 | 23 | 128 | 540 | 103 | 45 | 17 | 19.1% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 23 | 23 | 128 | 540 | 104 | 45 | 17 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 23 | 23 | 125 | 528 | 101 | 44 | 17 | 19.1% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 97 | 43 | 17 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 92 | 42 | 17 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.86 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 20 | 20 | 112 | 475 | 87 | 41 | 17 | 18.4% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 82 | 40 | 16 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 19 | 19 | 102 | 430 | 76 | 39 | 16 | 17.8% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 5.08 | 5.15 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 70 | 38 | 15 | 17.4% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 5.20 | 5.27 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 64 | 36 | 15 | 16.9% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 5.32 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 54 | 265 | 1127 | 166 | 86 | 38 | 14.7% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.70 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 41 | 200 | 851 | 125 | 65 | 29 | 14.7% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.70 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Hawks (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.69 | 19.0% | 10.8% | 381 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 94 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 93 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 91 |
| Forrest Snow R 2027 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 90 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 89 |
| Nestor Molina R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 89 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 4.02 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.14 | 3.45 | 274 | 89 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 88 |
| Wily Peralta R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 88 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 88 |
| Jared Ruxer R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 3.4% | .301 | 6.54 | 13.8% | 5.0% | 19 | +1.85 | 3.41 | 270 | 88 |
| Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .307 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 219 | 88 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 88 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 88 |
| Shane Greene R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.54 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.56 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.98 | 2.84 | 484 | 87 |
| Allen Webster R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.16 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.8% | .356 | 5.73 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.57 | 4.61 | 177 | 87 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.7% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .260 | 4.34 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 343 | +0.28 | 3.77 | 725 | 87 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 87 |
| Chase Solesky R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.96 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .322 | 4.60 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 205 | -0.36 | 4.07 | 501 | 87 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.04 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .320 | 4.89 | 13.0% | 2.6% | 74 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 204 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| Totals | $5M | $18M | +$13M | ||