Ryan Hawks — OGILVIE

Ryan Hawks P Arkansas Travelers

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 235 lbs AA peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION105 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%12.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	13	54	14	5	0	100%	2.2	25.9%	9.3%	16.7%	0.0%	2.77	2.08	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	13	54	14	5	0	100%	2.2	25.9%	9.3%	16.7%	0.0%	2.77	2.08	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	13	54	14	5	0	100%	2.2	25.9%	9.3%	16.7%	0.0%	2.77	2.10	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	25	25	121	537	95	34	22	100%	4.8	13.6%	7.3%	6.3%	4.4%	5.59	5.26	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	25	25	121	537	95	34	22	100%	4.8	13.6%	7.3%	6.3%	4.4%	5.59	5.26	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	25	25	121	537	95	34	22	100%	4.8	17.7%	6.3%	11.4%	4.1%	5.59	4.74	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	22	21	116	475	86	34	13	95%	5.3	13.9%	8.2%	5.7%	3.3%	3.79	4.78	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	22	21	116	475	86	34	13	95%	5.3	13.9%	8.2%	5.7%	3.3%	3.79	4.78	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	22	21	116	475	86	34	13	95%	5.3	18.1%	7.2%	10.9%	2.7%	3.79	3.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	24	22	105	483	79	46	16	92%	4.4	13.2%	10.5%	2.8%	4.0%	6.36	5.49	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	24	22	105	483	79	46	16	92%	4.4	13.2%	10.5%	2.8%	4.0%	6.36	5.49	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	SEA	24	22	105	483	79	46	16	92%	4.4	16.4%	9.5%	6.8%	3.3%	6.36	4.74	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SEA	1	1	7	29	4	3	1	100%	6.9	12.4%	8.8%	3.6%	3.3%	5.34	5.34	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	112	512	83	49	17	—	—	16.1%	9.5%	6.6%	3.3%	6.30	5.48	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	109	459	66	40	15	100%	6.0	14.4%	8.6%	5.8%	3.2%	5.17	5.14	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	107	452	68	39	15	100%	5.9	15.0%	8.6%	6.3%	3.3%	5.11	5.11	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	SEA	17	17	104	438	67	38	15	100%	6.1	15.2%	8.8%	6.4%	3.4%	5.12	5.15	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	SEA	17	17	99	418	63	37	15	100%	5.8	15.1%	8.9%	6.2%	3.5%	5.19	5.26	-0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	SEA	16	16	93	394	58	36	15	100%	5.8	14.8%	9.2%	5.5%	3.7%	5.34	5.43	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	48	203	29	18	7	100%	6.0	14.4%	8.6%	5.8%	3.2%	5.17	5.14	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	68	287	43	25	9	100%	6.2	15.0%	8.6%	6.3%	3.3%	5.11	5.11	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	SEA	13	13	78	329	50	29	11	100%	6.0	15.2%	8.8%	6.4%	3.4%	5.12	5.15	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	SEA	14	14	81	342	52	31	12	100%	5.8	15.1%	8.9%	6.2%	3.5%	5.19	5.26	-0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	SEA	13	13	80	338	50	31	12	100%	6.2	14.8%	9.2%	5.5%	3.7%	5.34	5.43	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	59	355	1498	224	133	51	100%	6.0	14.9%	8.9%	6.1%	3.4%	5.19	4.85	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	126	75	29	100%	6.0	14.9%	8.9%	6.1%	3.4%	5.19	4.85	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		77	74	355	1549	217	134	58	96%	4.6	14.0%	8.6%	5.4%	3.8%	5.13	5.07	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	873	123	75	33	96%	4.6	14.0%	8.6%	5.4%	3.8%	5.13	5.07	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Hawks (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	12.4%	8.8%	3.3%	—	5.13	14.8%	6.2%	319	-0.21	—	—	—
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	90
Javier Solano R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP	4.96	11.0%	6.2%	3.6%	.331	4.12	12.3%	7.3%	275	-0.84	3.67	506	87
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	84
Jordan Pries R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP	4.29	14.0%	7.5%	2.6%	.307	4.43	17.4%	9.2%	131	+0.14	4.29	219	84
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	84
Shane Greene R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	13.0%	6.6%	3.0%	.309	3.60	24.1%	15.6%	191	-0.90	2.86	484	84
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	84
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	84
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	84
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	84
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	84
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	83
Wily Peralta R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	12.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.314	4.43	18.5%	8.4%	312	-0.07	3.98	748	83
Johendí Jiminian R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	14.0%	11.4%	3.5%	.282	4.41	13.9%	4.4%	94	-0.84	4.01	419	82
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	82
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	82
Nick Belzer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP	4.51	12.8%	8.6%	2.6%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	112	82
Elliot Morris R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	12.8%	10.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	102	82
Hyrum Formo R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	10.5%	5.9%	2.3%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	107	82
Tyler Carpenter R 2017 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	11.0%	6.7%	3.4%	.287	4.10	13.8%	6.3%	49	-0.78	3.68	296	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	99	14.5%	8.8%	1.31	5.20
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Matt Manning ('24)	1.3	64	16.4%	7.8%	1.06	4.43
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32