Kaelen Culpepper

SS St. Paul Saints
Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.302 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421A+/AMIN112.242/.330/.3943459—.206/.277/.342
202522AA/A+MIN517.289/.375/.469202595—.250/.321/.393
202623AAAMIN343.271/.370/.478141796—.235/.314/.389
202623MLBMIN128.274/.331/.393311050.9
2027PROJ49% MLB24MLBMIN76.234/.306/.37822930.2
2028PROJ61% MLB25MLBMIN296.236/.308/.38299951.0
2029PROJ66% MLB26MLBMIN349.236/.308/.3831011951.2
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.302First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$5M2031Arb-2$7M2032Arb-3$9M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed90
Z-Con%80
Max EV74
K%73
Whiff%69
BB%59
Form.229/.289/.348 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .234/.303/.377
Career WAR1.1 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 24, comp-based) · star 8% · didn't stick 55%
CompsLastings Milledge (age 24) · Josh Rutledge (age 24) · Ezequiel Duran (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†93
AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .306 / .378
PA76
HR2
K%21
BB%7
BABIP274
ISO130
MLB%49%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.9 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.60+0.6WAR
0.00.81.70.31.01.21.11.00.827282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026
CONTACT
xAVG
310.236
POWER
Barrel%
133.4
Avg EV
2887.4
SPEED
Sprint
5827.8
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%21%·21% over 61 PA (60d) · proj 22%
BB%6%▼3% over 61 PA (60d) · proj 7%
ISO.119▼.053 over 57 AB (60d) · proj .143
HR/BB3.0%▼0.0% over 44 BBE (60d) · proj 4.1%
BABIP.274·.273 over 44 BIP (60d) · proj .274
SLASH.229/.289/.348▼proj .234/.303/.377
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   0.302 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.4M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.0$7M+$7M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.2$8M+$8M
2030Arb-1$5M+1.1$7M+$4M
2031Arb-2$7M+1.0$6M+$1M
2032Arb-3$9M+0.8$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $14M $32M +$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 7162 13111 8131 20 210310306616 97250 1811 287 36 — — — — — —
202421 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 4137 11302 321 21 297366541906 243273 57 397 100 — — — — — —
202522 AAWichita Wind Surge — 270239 687111 24507 102 285367460827 176320 199 369 91 — — — — — —
202522 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 247215 63929 26406 152 293385479864 186325 1611 385 99 — — — — — —
202623 MLBMinnesota Twins — 128117 32503 6284 10 274331393724 120333 225 324 105 +1 +0 +0 +5 +3 0.9
202623 AAASt. Paul Saints — 343295 8015214 39637 173 271370478847 207300 1811 374 96 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 128117 32503 6284 10 274331393724 120333 225 324 106 +1 +0 +0 +5 +3 0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 7164 12111 6171 20 188268281549 94223 248 221 36 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 4138 9202 231 21 237293447740 211224 75 316 100 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 270246 61619 17657 102 248315390705 142297 246 303 91 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 247222 56727 19526 152 252328396724 144297 218 315 99 — — — — — —
202623 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 128117 32503 6284 10 274331393724 120333 225 324 105 +1 +0 +0 +5 +3 0.9
202623 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 343306 7213210 28757 173 235314389703 154277 228 310 96 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLE2 teams — 112102 20312 8202 41 196268304572 108225 187 256 59 — — — — — —
202421 A+ RAW2 teams — 11299 24413 11152 41 242330394724 152259 1310 327 59 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLE2 teams — 517468 11713316 3611713 254 250321393714 143301 237 309 95 — — — — — —
202522 AA RAW2 teams — 517454 13116320 509013 254 289375469844 181323 1710 377 95 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLE2 teams — 471423 10418213 3410311 183 246318390708 144294 227 314 99 — — — — — —
202623 AAA RAW2 teams — 471412 11220217 459111 183 272359454813 182309 1910 361 99 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLE2 teams — 112101 20312 8202 41 198268307575 109223 187 256 59 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLE2 teams — 517463 11713316 3611713 254 253321397718 145297 237 309 95 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLE2 teams — 471423 10418213 3410311 183 246318390708 144292 227 314 99 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A+ MLE2 teams — 112101 20312 8202 41 198268307575 109223 187 256 59 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLE2 teams — 517463 11713316 3611713 254 253321397718 145297 237 309 95 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLE2 teams — 471423 10418213 3410311 183 246318390708 144292 227 314 99 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEMIN 49% 380342 8113211 27828 123 234306377683 143274 227 306 93 -3 +1 +1 +4 +8 0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXMIN 49% 7669 16302 5162 21 234306378683 143274 217 306 93 -1 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEMIN 61% 489441 10317214 3510510 154 236307381689 146275 217 308 95 -3 +1 +2 +5 +11 1.6
202926 MLB MLEMIN 66% 528473 11218216 3911411 164 236308382691 146276 227 309 95 -3 +2 +2 +6 +11 1.8
203027 MLB MLEMIN 67% 513460 10918215 3811110 154 236308381689 146276 227 308 95 -3 +1 +2 +5 +11 1.7
203128 MLB MLEMIN 67% 500450 10417214 371109 133 234307378685 144276 227 306 94 -4 +1 +1 +5 +11 1.5
203229 MLB MLEMIN 66% 486438 10217214 361089 103 233305374679 141276 227 304 92 -5 +1 +0 +5 +11 1.2
203330 MLB MLEMIN 65% 321288 671119 24726 52 230301366668 136275 227 300 89 -4 +0 -1 +3 +7 0.5
203431 MLB MLEMIN 65% 302272 621018 22695 31 226297357654 131272 237 294 85 -5 +0 -2 +3 +7 0.3
203532 MLB MLEMIN 65% 279252 56917 20655 11 221291345636 124268 237 286 80 -7 -0 -3 +3 +6 -0.0
202825 MLB CTXMIN 61% 296267 631019 21646 92 236308382690 146275 227 308 95 -2 +1 +1 +3 +6 1.0
202926 MLB CTXMIN 66% 349313 7412210 26757 113 236308383691 147276 217 309 95 -2 +1 +1 +4 +8 1.2
203027 MLB CTXMIN 67% 344308 7312210 26757 103 236308382690 146276 228 309 95 -2 +1 +1 +4 +7 1.1
203128 MLB CTXMIN 67% 337303 7112110 25746 92 235307379686 144276 227 307 94 -3 +1 +1 +4 +7 1.0
203229 MLB CTXMIN 66% 321288 671119 24716 72 233305375679 142276 227 304 92 -3 +1 +0 +3 +7 0.8
203330 MLB CTXMIN 65% 210188 44716 16474 31 230301367669 137275 228 300 89 -3 +0 -1 +2 +5 0.4
203431 MLB CTXMIN 65% 196177 41715 14453 21 226297358654 131272 237 294 85 -4 +0 -1 +2 +4 0.2
203532 MLB CTXMIN 65% 180162 36614 13423 01 221291346636 124269 237 287 80 -4 -0 -2 +2 +4 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 23612123 501821066 17152146 5215 236307377684 141281 227 305 92 -22 +4 +0 +29 +51 6.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650584 13823318 4714313 144 236307378686 142281 227 305 92 -6 +1 +0 +8 +14 1.8
Career— MLE — 46734207 98815620132 340102794 13031 235306376682 141279 227 304 92 -35 +8 +1 +43 +80 9.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650585 13822318 4714313 184 236307376683 140281 227 304 92 -6 +1 +0 +8 +14 1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 343 PAwOBA .366 → .310 (−57)K% 18.4% → 22.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.37%÷1.000×1.200——22.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.37%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0488.22%
HBP% /PA2.04%—×0.940—×1.0482.01%
Singles /BIP21.12%÷1.000×0.930×0.985×1.04820.27%
Doubles /BIP6.47%÷1.000×0.830×0.985×1.0485.54%
Triples /BIP0.86%÷1.000×0.970×0.985×1.0480.86%
Home runs /BIP6.03%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0484.43%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .366 → .310; ISO .207 → .162; BABIP .300 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 270 PAwOBA .359 → .303 (−56)K% 18.5% → 24.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.52%÷0.941×1.220——24.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.89%÷0.992×0.700—×1.0276.44%
HBP% /PA2.59%—×0.870—×1.0272.32%
Singles /BIP25.93%÷1.025×0.920×1.029×1.02724.59%
Doubles /BIP3.70%÷1.031×0.840×1.029×1.0273.19%
Triples /BIP0.53%÷1.150×0.940×1.029×1.0270.46%
Home runs /BIP5.82%÷0.986×0.800—×1.0274.85%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .359 → .303; ISO .176 → .142; BABIP .320 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 247 PAwOBA .374 → .315 (−60)K% 16.2% → 21.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.19%÷0.979×1.270——21.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.53%÷0.989×0.710—×0.9987.54%
HBP% /PA2.43%—×0.790—×0.9981.92%
Singles /BIP24.57%÷0.990×0.920×1.030×0.99823.48%
Doubles /BIP5.14%÷1.088×0.810×1.030×0.9983.94%
Triples /BIP1.14%÷0.943×0.850×1.030×0.9981.06%
Home runs /BIP5.14%÷0.962×0.800—×0.9984.27%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .374 → .315; ISO .186 → .151; BABIP .325 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 71 PAwOBA .280 → .221 (−58)K% 18.3% → 23.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.31%÷0.972×1.270——23.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.27%÷1.043×0.710—×1.0127.76%
HBP% /PA1.41%—×0.790—×1.0121.13%
Singles /BIP20.41%÷0.984×0.920×0.986×1.01219.05%
Doubles /BIP2.04%÷1.119×0.810×0.986×1.0121.47%
Triples /BIP2.04%÷1.146×0.850×0.986×1.0121.51%
Home runs /BIP2.04%÷1.191×0.800—×1.0121.39%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 124, 3B 129, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .280 → .221; ISO .097 → .067; BABIP .250 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 41 PAwOBA .386 → .316 (−70)K% 4.9% → 6.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA4.88%÷0.994×1.360——6.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.32%÷0.976×0.690——5.17%
HBP% /PA2.44%—×0.780——1.90%
Singles /BIP17.14%÷1.096×0.920——14.39%
Doubles /BIP8.57%÷1.019×0.830——6.98%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.962×0.910——0.00%
Home runs /BIP5.71%÷0.962×0.800——4.75%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 119, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .386 → .316; ISO .243 → .203; BABIP .273 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).