Elian Rosario

SS DSL Rangers Blue

Age 18 R/R ROK HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#483ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Rangers B…	222	.251/.396/.440	8	3	49	—	.152/.281/.250
2027PROJMLE	18	MLBTEX	332	.234/.310/.336	5	5	85	0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	19	MLBTEX	73	.238/.315/.350	1	1	89	0.1
2029PROJ61% MLB	20	MLBTEX	175	.241/.319/.359	3	3	92	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%85

K%84

ISO80

Whiff%74

Z-Con%68

wOBA61

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRubén Tejada (age 18) · Michael Arroyo (age 18) · Aron Estrada (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 118 proj PA

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .307 / .333

PA118

HR2

K%23

BB%8

ISO103

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$61M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 64 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT64

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$6M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$5M
2036	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$5M	+$3M
2037	Arb-2	$7M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
2038	Arb-3	$8M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$29M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	222	175	44	7	1	8	29	32	13	3	0	251	396	440	836	189	257	14	13	371	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	222	184	28	4	1	4	20	39	13	3	0	152	281	250	531	98	158	18	9	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	222	184	28	4	1	4	20	39	13	3	0	152	281	250	531	98	164	18	9	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	—	222	175	44	7	1	8	29	32	13	3	0	251	396	440	836	189	257	14	13	371	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	222	187	28	4	1	4	20	39	13	3	0	150	281	246	527	96	158	18	9	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	222	187	28	4	1	4	20	39	13	3	0	150	281	246	527	96	158	18	9	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	332	296	70	11	3	5	26	77	7	5	2	234	310	336	646	103	298	23	8	294	85	-6	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	TEX	43%	168	149	36	6	1	3	13	39	4	3	1	237	315	346	661	109	299	23	8	300	89	-2	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2029	20	MLB MLE	TEX	61%	287	255	61	10	2	5	23	66	7	5	2	240	318	355	673	115	300	23	8	304	92	-3	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2030	21	MLB MLE	TEX	68%	401	357	86	14	3	8	32	91	9	8	4	242	320	362	683	121	301	23	8	308	95	-3	+0	+0	+4	+9	1.1
2031	22	MLB MLE	TEX	71%	477	424	103	17	3	10	39	107	11	9	4	243	322	368	690	125	301	22	8	311	97	-2	+0	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2032	23	MLB MLE	TEX	72%	531	471	115	19	4	11	43	119	12	10	5	245	323	373	696	128	302	22	8	313	98	-1	+0	+0	+6	+12	1.6
2033	24	MLB MLE	TEX	72%	561	498	122	20	4	12	46	126	12	11	5	246	324	375	699	129	302	22	8	314	99	-1	+0	+0	+6	+12	1.8
2034	25	MLB MLE	TEX	71%	578	514	126	21	4	12	47	129	12	11	5	246	324	376	700	130	302	22	8	315	99	-1	+0	+0	+6	+13	1.9
2035	26	MLB MLE	TEX	71%	592	526	130	22	4	13	48	133	13	11	5	246	324	376	700	130	302	22	8	315	99	-1	+0	+0	+6	+13	1.9
2036	27	MLB MLE	TEX	70%	590	524	128	21	4	13	48	133	13	11	5	245	323	373	696	128	302	23	8	313	98	-1	+0	+0	+6	+13	1.8
2037	28	MLB MLE	TEX	69%	582	518	126	21	4	12	47	132	12	10	6	243	321	369	690	126	301	23	8	311	97	-2	-0	-1	+6	+13	1.6
2038	29	MLB MLE	TEX	67%	565	502	121	20	4	11	46	130	12	9	6	241	319	363	682	122	300	23	8	307	94	-4	-1	-1	+6	+12	1.3
2039	30	MLB MLE	TEX	66%	552	492	117	19	4	10	44	129	11	8	6	238	316	355	671	117	299	23	8	303	91	-6	-1	-2	+6	+12	0.9
2040	31	MLB MLE	TEX	65%	534	476	111	18	3	9	42	127	11	7	9	234	311	346	657	112	297	24	8	298	87	-8	-2	-3	+6	+12	0.4
2041	32	MLB MLE	TEX	65%	511	456	105	17	3	8	40	124	10	6	15	229	305	334	639	105	293	24	8	290	83	-11	-5	-4	+5	+11	-0.2
2028	19	MLB CTX	TEX	43%	73	65	15	2	1	1	6	17	2	1	1	238	315	350	665	112	299	23	8	301	89	-1	-0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	TEX	61%	175	155	37	6	1	3	14	40	4	3	1	241	319	359	678	118	300	23	8	306	92	-2	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.4
2030	21	MLB CTX	TEX	68%	273	243	59	9	2	6	22	62	6	5	2	243	321	367	688	124	301	23	8	310	95	-2	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2031	22	MLB CTX	TEX	71%	339	301	73	12	2	7	27	76	8	6	3	244	323	373	696	128	301	22	8	313	97	-1	+0	+0	+4	+7	1.0
2032	23	MLB CTX	TEX	72%	384	342	84	13	3	9	31	86	8	7	3	246	324	378	702	132	301	22	8	315	98	-1	+0	+0	+4	+8	1.2
2033	24	MLB CTX	TEX	72%	401	356	88	14	3	9	33	90	9	8	4	247	325	380	705	133	302	22	8	317	99	-1	+0	+0	+4	+9	1.3
2034	25	MLB CTX	TEX	71%	411	366	89	14	3	9	33	92	9	8	4	247	325	381	706	134	302	22	8	317	99	-0	+0	+0	+4	+9	1.3
2035	26	MLB CTX	TEX	71%	420	374	93	15	3	10	34	94	9	8	4	247	325	381	706	134	302	22	8	317	99	-0	+0	+0	+4	+9	1.3
2036	27	MLB CTX	TEX	70%	410	364	89	14	3	9	34	92	9	7	4	246	324	378	702	132	302	22	8	316	98	-1	-0	+0	+4	+9	1.2
2037	28	MLB CTX	TEX	69%	400	356	87	14	3	9	33	91	8	7	4	244	322	373	696	129	301	23	8	313	97	-2	-0	-0	+4	+9	1.1
2038	29	MLB CTX	TEX	67%	378	336	82	13	3	8	31	87	8	6	4	242	320	367	687	125	300	23	8	309	94	-3	-0	-1	+4	+8	0.8
2039	30	MLB CTX	TEX	66%	363	324	76	12	2	7	29	85	7	5	4	239	316	360	676	120	299	23	8	305	91	-4	-1	-1	+4	+8	0.6
2040	31	MLB CTX	TEX	65%	348	310	73	11	2	7	28	83	7	4	6	235	312	350	662	115	296	24	8	299	87	-5	-2	-2	+4	+8	0.3
2041	32	MLB CTX	TEX	65%	331	296	68	10	2	6	26	80	6	4	10	230	306	338	643	107	293	24	8	292	83	-7	-3	-2	+4	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4706	4188	1013	159	33	100	381	1075	100	79	54	242	320	367	687	125	301	23	8	310	93	-29	-6	-7	+50	+102	11.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	141	22	5	14	53	148	14	11	7	244	322	372	694	128	303	23	8	310	93	-4	-1	-1	+7	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7269	6452	1540	253	49	143	587	1651	164	124	79	239	318	360	678	121	297	23	8	306	93	-46	-7	-10	+76	+153	16.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	138	23	4	13	52	148	15	11	7	239	318	360	679	121	298	23	8	306	93	-4	-1	-1	+7	+14	1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Rangers Blue · 222 PAwOBA .370 → .240 (−130)K% 14.4% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.41%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	17.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.06%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	—	9.14%
HBP% /PA	5.86%	—	×0.700	—	—	4.10%
Singles /BIP	19.58%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.952	—	12.68%
Doubles /BIP	4.90%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.952	—	2.80%
Triples /BIP	0.70%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.952	—	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	5.59%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	—	2.63%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age unknown — no age adjustment. Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .370 → .240; ISO .189 → .101; BABIP .257 → .158. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Scott Fletcher'81-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,976 PA	9.0	5,976	34	99	258*	330*	357*	+42	+40	17.2	18.2
/162	664	4	11	+4.6	+4.5	1.9	pk7: 19
#2Spike Owen'83-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,615 PA	8.5	5,615	46	82	242*	322*	356*	+55	+30	15.6	15.3
/162	664	5	10	+6.5	+3.6	1.8	pk7: 15
#3Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#4Greg Gagne'83-'97 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,207 PA	9.3	6,207	111	108	249*	297*	394*	+65	+26	13.2	13.0
/162	664	12	12	+6.9	+2.8	1.4	pk7: 13
#5Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.3	4,826	95	82	243	317	365	+52	+30	15.2	12.8
/162	664	13	11	+7.1	+4.1	2.1	pk7: 10
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Elian Rosario (OGILVIE)	18	59→64	40→45	45→50	58	232/307/333	102	298	2	2	23%	8%	85	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Aron Estrada 2023 · A	18	50→54	41→50	47→55	54	238/323/346	109	290	6	7	19%	10%	93	+0.8	235/304/342	107	293	8	18	21%	8%	84	+0.2	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
●Franklin Arias 2024 · A	18	48→58	37→50	46→50	52	223/290/295	72	258	3	6	15%	8%	68	-1.0	246/303/362	116	293	11	14	19%	7%	88	+0.5	260/316/394	134	300	15	13	18%	6%	99	+1.0
●Daniel Robertson 2013 · A	19	46→56	46→45	52→40	49	227/301/367	141	268	12	6	20%	8%	90	+0.6	245/312/360	115	307	10	3	22%	7%	92	+0.7	256/329/366	110	321	8	2	21%	8%	96	+0.9
●Elvis Andrus 2006 · A	17	48→58	39→50	47→60	47	231/294/314	84	293	7	9	23%	7%	74	-0.5	241/292/319	78	321	4	22	25%	6%	74	-0.6	276/328/411	135	308	11	19	14%	7%	107	+1.7
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→61	41→50	49→50	60	240/338/346	106	301	8	10	21%	13%	98	+1.2	254/339/391	137	339	12	14	26%	11%	109	+2.0	249/334/388	139	323	13	15	25%	11%	105	+1.7
✕Demetrio Crisantes 2024 · A	19	48→58	38→50	46→55	43	227/284/313	85	310	5	7	27%	6%	70	-0.9	250/317/366	116	315	9	13	22%	8%	95	+0.9	258/328/389	130	318	10	12	21%	8%	102	+0.8
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Ronald Torreyes 2011 · A	18	57→59	42→45	52→50	47	268/318/394	126	285	6	14	9%	4%	101	+1.4	271/315/368	97	293	5	11	9%	4%	94	+0.9	271/315/361	90	292	4	9	8%	4%	89	+0.4
●Jose Tabata 2007 · A	18	54→62	41→45	51→55	44	257/313/356	99	323	8	16	22%	6%	91	+0.6	271/321/361	90	336	7	14	20%	5%	95	+0.9	284/341/385	101	328	6	26	14%	7%	107	+1.5
✕Christian Arroyo 2014 · A	19	49→58	40→50	49→45	44	233/282/342	109	300	5	6	23%	6%	76	-0.4	240/274/341	101	305	7	4	23%	4%	72	-0.7	254/305/408	153	304	17	7	22%	5%	100	+0.5
●Miguel Vargas 2019 · A	19	51→54	39→55	52→50	46	240/297/334	93	309	5	8	23%	7%	80	-0.2	252/306/371	119	311	10	8	21%	7%	91	+0.7	226/328/409	183	251	21	13	19%	12%	110	+2.0
✕Hendry Mendez 2022 · A	18	50→57	39→45	51→45	51	234/299/332	97	275	5	7	16%	8%	80	-0.2	227/296/304	77	285	5	5	20%	9%	73	-0.6	262/336/372	110	313	10	6	18%	9%	101	+1.0
✕Axiel Plaz 2023 · A	17	48→51	42→50	51→40	49	225/310/341	116	302	7	7	26%	9%	87	+0.4	180/268/296	116	277	12	3	37%	8%	62	-1.4	209/276/363	155	262	21	2	29%	7%	78	-0.2
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2023 · A	19	47→57	43→50	49→45	44	228/296/339	111	277	10	9	21%	6%	82	-0.0	253/309/380	127	305	13	7	21%	5%	95	+1.0	266/321/397	132	318	13	6	20%	5%	101	+1.1
✕Luis Matos 2021 · A	19	51→58	44→50	53→50	45	249/309/372	124	290	10	14	18%	5%	94	+0.9	242/288/368	126	279	13	13	18%	5%	84	+0.2	246/298/398	152	258	18	13	13%	6%	95	+0.7
●Cheslor Cuthbert 2012 · A	19	46→56	44→50	49→45	42	228/282/343	116	302	12	4	28%	6%	76	-0.4	222/267/325	103	278	10	6	23%	6%	66	-1.1	255/309/403	148	298	17	1	20%	7%	101	+0.7
✕Juan Fernandez 2017 · A	18	48→58	37→40	45→50	52	224/309/297	73	285	4	5	21%	9%	76	-0.4	212/273/299	87	269	6	4	22%	6%	63	-1.4	239/301/321	82	296	8	9	21%	6%	75	-0.3

Elian Rosario

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps