Luis Matos

RF Nashville Sounds

Age 25 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs AAA HR +10%K +6% Svc 1.375 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

AAAPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	22	AAA/INTL2 orgs	610	.274/.339/.485	24	11	107	—	.229/.294/.381
2024	22	MLBSF	156	.213/.239/.347	5	0	62	-0.6
2025	23	AAA/INTL2 orgs	227	.236/.274/.392	7	6	56	—	.262/.295/.450
2025	23	MLBSF	184	.221/.268/.424	8	4	96	-0.6
2026	24	AAAMIL	277	.234/.309/.355	5	10	57	—	.209/.269/.307
2026	24	MLBMIL	21	.200/.238/.200	0	0	26	-0.4
2027PROJ10% MLB	25	MLBMIL	24	.232/.286/.383	1	1	87	0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	26	MLBMIL	101	.232/.286/.382	3	2	87	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	27	MLBMIL	133	.231/.284/.379	4	3	86	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.375First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$0.2M2030Arb-2$0.4M2031Arb-3$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd52

Speed36

Barrel%29

Avg EV26

xwOBA12

CompsNick Loftin (age 25) · Matt Downs (age 26) · Jamie Hoffmann (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8987vR 80

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .286 / .383

PA24

HR1

K%17

BB%4

BABIP246

ISO174

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

130.221

POWER45

Barrel%

295.5

Avg EV

2687.3

Bat Spd

5271.6

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

3626.8

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 340 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

137

203

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

271

284

▶R

ISO

215

142

◀◀L

BABIP

181

245

▶▶R

17.5%

13.3%

▶▶R

BB%

3.6%

4.9%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.375 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	17	ROK	AZL Giants Orange	—	290	251	92	25	2	7	20	31	15	21	3	367	444	566	1.010	199	392	11	7	439	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	San Jose Giants	—	491	451	141	35	1	15	28	61	7	21	5	313	362	494	857	182	332	12	6	375	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	407	369	78	14	1	11	27	65	7	11	3	211	278	344	622	133	226	16	7	279	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	93	86	20	3	1	2	5	20	1	1	2	233	283	360	643	128	277	22	5	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	253	228	57	13	1	2	20	33	3	3	0	250	319	342	661	92	285	13	8	299	91	-3	+1	-6	+2	+5	-0.1
2023	21	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	152	139	49	7	2	9	11	11	1	6	1	353	404	626	1.030	273	336	7	7	443	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	133	115	35	7	0	3	17	12	1	9	4	304	398	443	842	139	320	9	13	379	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	156	150	32	5	0	5	5	24	0	0	0	213	239	347	585	133	221	15	3	258	62	-7	+0	-5	+3	+3	-0.6
2024	22	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	375	328	84	22	0	14	28	40	11	8	2	256	335	451	786	195	248	11	7	343	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	235	220	66	20	1	10	12	23	3	3	1	300	345	536	881	236	299	10	5	384	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	184	172	38	9	1	8	11	27	0	4	0	221	268	424	692	203	217	15	6	302	96	-1	+1	-6	-4	+4	-0.6
2025	23	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	159	147	43	11	0	7	8	20	1	6	0	293	333	510	844	218	293	13	5	362	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	68	65	7	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	108	134	123	257	15	115	7	3	119	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	21	20	4	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	200	238	200	438		308	33	5	206	26	-2	+0	+1	-3	+0	-0.4
2026	24	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	277	248	58	11	2	5	23	28	4	10	6	234	309	355	664	121	244	10	8	299	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	614	570	131	27	2	15	37	91	3	7	0	230	280	363	643	133	249	15	6	286	80	-15	+1	-16	-3	+13	-1.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	17	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	—	290	258	72	18	1	6	13	45	15	21	3	279	350	426	776	147	302	16	4	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	491	462	126	29	1	12	17	86	7	21	5	273	309	418	726	145	303	18	3	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	407	376	67	12	1	8	20	85	7	11	3	178	233	279	513	101	201	21	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	253	228	58	13	1	2	20	33	3	3	0	254	323	346	669	92	285	13	8	303	91	-3	+1	-6	+2	+5	-0.1
2023	21	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	152	142	44	6	2	6	8	12	1	6	1	310	351	507	858	197	308	8	5	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	133	119	35	6	0	3	13	15	1	9	4	294	368	420	789	126	319	11	10	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	156	151	32	5	0	5	4	24	0	0	0	212	232	344	577	132	221	15	3	261	62	-7	+0	-5	+3	+3	-0.6
2024	22	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	375	336	77	18	0	11	20	44	11	8	2	229	294	381	675	152	220	12	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	184	172	39	9	1	9	11	27	0	4	0	227	273	448	721	221	217	15	6	311	96	-1	+1	-6	-4	+4	-0.6
2025	23	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	159	149	39	10	0	6	6	24	1	6	0	262	295	450	745	188	257	15	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	21	20	4	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	200	238	200	438		308	33	5	206	26	-2	+0	+1	-3	+0	-0.4
2026	24	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	277	254	53	9	2	4	17	34	4	10	6	209	269	307	576	98	220	12	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	—	290	258	72	18	1	6	13	45	15	21	3	279	350	426	776	147	313	16	4	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Orange	—	290	251	92	25	2	7	20	31	15	21	3	367	444	566	1.010	199	392	11	7	439	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	491	462	126	29	1	12	17	86	7	21	5	273	309	418	726	145	309	18	3	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A RAW	San Jose Giants	—	491	451	141	35	1	15	28	61	7	21	5	313	362	494	857	182	332	12	6	375	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	500	462	82	14	1	10	25	105	8	12	5	177	232	277	509	100	205	21	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	500	455	98	17	2	13	32	85	8	12	5	215	279	347	626	132	235	17	6	280	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	538	489	137	25	3	11	41	60	5	18	5	280	342	411	753	131	301	11	8	333	111	+7	+2	-6	+2	+12	1.7
2023	21	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	538	482	141	27	3	14	48	56	5	18	5	293	363	448	811	156	308	10	9	360	111	+7	+2	-6	+2	+12	1.7
2024	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	766	709	157	33	0	23	34	98	14	11	3	221	271	365	636	144	224	13	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	766	698	182	47	1	29	45	87	14	11	3	261	318	456	774	195	259	11	6	338	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	411	385	92	22	1	17	20	61	1	10	0	239	278	434	712	195	240	15	5	309	95	-2	+2	-6	-4	+9	-0.2
2025	23	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	411	384	88	21	1	15	21	52	1	10	0	229	271	406	677	177	227	13	5	295	95	-2	+2	-6	-4	+9	-0.2
2026	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	298	274	57	9	2	4	18	41	4	10	6	208	267	299	566	91	229	14	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	298	268	62	11	2	5	24	35	4	10	6	231	304	343	647	112	248	12	8	293	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	—	290	260	72	18	1	6	13	45	15	21	3	277	350	423	773	146	302	16	4	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	491	464	126	29	1	12	17	86	7	21	5	272	309	416	725	144	303	18	3	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	500	463	82	14	1	10	25	105	8	12	5	177	232	276	509	99	201	21	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	538	487	137	25	3	11	41	60	5	18	5	281	342	413	755	131	300	11	8	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	766	712	157	33	0	23	34	98	14	11	3	221	271	364	635	143	220	13	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	411	387	92	22	1	17	20	61	1	10	0	238	278	432	710	194	236	15	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	298	274	57	9	2	4	18	41	4	10	6	208	267	299	566	91	226	14	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	766	712	157	33	0	23	34	98	14	11	3	221	271	364	635	143	220	13	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	411	387	92	22	1	17	20	61	1	10	0	238	278	432	710	194	236	15	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	298	274	57	9	2	4	18	41	4	10	6	208	267	299	566	91	226	14	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIL	10%	348	321	76	15	2	10	20	53	4	8	2	234	288	383	671	149	250	15	6	297	87	-5	+1	-1	-4	+8	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIL	10%	24	23	5	1	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	232	286	383	668	150	246	17	4	296	87	-0	+0	-0	-0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	35%	291	269	62	12	1	8	17	44	3	7	2	234	288	383	671	149	249	15	6	297	87	-4	+1	-1	-3	+6	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	44%	303	279	65	13	1	9	18	46	3	7	2	233	287	380	667	147	249	15	6	296	86	-5	+1	-1	-3	+7	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	49%	310	286	66	13	1	9	18	48	3	6	2	231	284	375	659	144	248	15	6	293	84	-6	+0	-1	-3	+7	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	50%	302	279	63	12	1	8	17	48	3	5	1	228	281	368	649	140	246	16	6	289	81	-7	+1	-2	-3	+7	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	35%	101	93	21	4	0	3	6	15	1	2	1	232	286	382	668	150	245	15	6	296	87	-2	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	44%	133	123	29	5	1	4	8	20	1	3	1	231	284	379	664	149	245	15	6	294	86	-2	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	49%	152	140	32	6	1	4	9	24	2	3	1	229	282	374	656	146	243	16	6	291	84	-3	+0	-1	-2	+3	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	50%	151	139	32	6	1	4	9	24	2	2	1	226	279	367	646	141	242	16	6	287	81	-3	+0	-1	-2	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1151	1065	245	48	5	30	69	174	9	17	4	230	283	369	652	139	248	15	6	289	84	-25	+2	-18	-9	+25	-2.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	138	27	3	17	39	98	5	10	2	230	282	369	651	140	247	15	6	289	84	-14	+1	-10	-5	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4736	4369	1030	210	14	124	252	718	69	134	35	236	288	375	663	140	254	15	5	292	84	-40	+4	-21	-18	+45	-3.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	142	29	2	17	35	99	9	18	5	237	289	377	665	140	256	15	5	292	84	-13	+1	-7	-6	+14	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 277 PAwOBA .294 → .252 (−42)K% 10.1% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.11%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	12.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.30%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.048	6.00%
HBP% /PA	1.44%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.42%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×1.048	16.83%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×1.048	4.13%
Triples /BIP	0.91%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×1.048	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	2.27%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.048	1.67%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .294 → .252; ISO .121 → .098; BABIP .244 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 159 PAwOBA .359 → .307 (−52)K% 12.6% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.58%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	14.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.03%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×1.050	3.61%
HBP% /PA	0.63%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.62%
Singles /BIP	19.69%	÷1.030	×0.930	×0.951	×1.050	17.75%
Doubles /BIP	8.66%	÷0.959	×0.830	×0.951	×1.050	7.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.951	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.51%	÷0.938	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.32%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .359 → .307; ISO .218 → .179; BABIP .293 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 375 PAwOBA .340 → .291 (−49)K% 10.7% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.67%	÷1.081	×1.200	—	—	11.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.47%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.24%
HBP% /PA	2.93%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	2.90%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.976	×0.930	×0.950	×1.050	15.84%
Doubles /BIP	7.64%	÷1.052	×0.830	×0.950	×1.050	6.01%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.091	×0.970	×0.950	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.86%	÷1.010	×0.700	—	×1.050	3.54%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .340 → .291; ISO .195 → .152; BABIP .248 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 152 PAwOBA .431 → .372 (−59)K% 7.2% → 8.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.24%	÷1.087	×1.200	—	—	7.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.24%	÷0.981	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.35%
HBP% /PA	0.66%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.65%
Singles /BIP	24.22%	÷0.992	×0.930	×0.966	×1.050	23.03%
Doubles /BIP	5.47%	÷0.992	×0.830	×0.966	×1.050	4.64%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷0.956	×0.970	×0.966	×1.050	1.61%
Home runs /BIP	7.03%	÷1.057	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.89%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .431 → .372; ISO .273 → .212; BABIP .336 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 133 PAwOBA .370 → .345 (−25)K% 9.0% → 11.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.02%	÷0.995	×1.220	—	—	11.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.78%	÷0.985	×0.700	—	×1.050	9.54%
HBP% /PA	0.75%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.67%
Singles /BIP	24.27%	÷0.978	×0.970	×0.989	×1.050	25.00%
Doubles /BIP	6.80%	÷1.003	×0.860	×0.989	×1.050	6.05%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.989	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.91%	÷0.906	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.63%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .370 → .345; ISO .139 → .127; BABIP .320 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Eugene Emeralds · 407 PAwOBA .274 → .227 (−48)K% 16.0% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.97%	÷1.029	×1.350	—	—	20.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.63%	÷0.978	×0.710	—	×1.042	5.02%
HBP% /PA	1.72%	—	×0.810	—	×1.042	1.45%
Singles /BIP	17.11%	÷0.989	×0.910	×0.950	×1.042	15.58%
Doubles /BIP	4.61%	÷0.953	×0.830	×0.950	×1.042	3.97%
Triples /BIP	0.33%	÷0.930	×0.820	×0.950	×1.042	0.29%
Home runs /BIP	3.62%	÷1.120	×0.830	—	×1.042	2.79%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 86, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .274 → .227; ISO .133 → .104; BABIP .226 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ASan Jose Giants · 491 PAwOBA .368 → .311 (−57)K% 12.4% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.42%	÷0.959	×1.360	—	—	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.70%	÷1.203	×0.690	—	×1.045	3.42%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.16%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.977	×0.920	×0.972	×1.045	22.08%
Doubles /BIP	8.97%	÷1.014	×0.830	×0.972	×1.045	7.46%
Triples /BIP	0.26%	÷1.098	×0.910	×0.972	×1.045	0.22%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷1.008	×0.800	—	×1.045	3.19%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 103, 3B 120, K 92, BB 141 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .368 → .311; ISO .182 → .148; BABIP .332 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Giants Orange · 290 PAwOBA .433 → .330 (−104)K% 10.7% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.69%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	15.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.90%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.038	4.44%
HBP% /PA	5.17%	—	×0.720	—	×1.038	3.86%
Singles /BIP	26.36%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.950	×1.038	21.31%
Doubles /BIP	11.36%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×1.038	8.06%
Triples /BIP	0.91%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×1.038	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	3.18%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.038	2.57%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 19.5 → +3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .433 → .330; ISO .199 → .151; BABIP .392 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
#3Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.7	1,154	31	18	232	281	374	-12	-23	-0.2	-0.1
/162	664	18	10	-7.1	-13.5	-0.1	pk7: -0
#4Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0
#5Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	2.6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	21	9	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Carlos Martinez'88-'95 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,586 PA	2.4	1,586	25	10	256*	291*	383*	-18	-15	-2.5	-2.5
/162	664	10	4	-7.4	-6.2	-1.0	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Matos (OGILVIE)	25	45	45	50	35	232/285/380	148	250	7	6	15%	6%	87	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Loftin 2024 · MLB	25	48→53	47→45	50	48	241/302/372	131	276	15	15	19%	7%	91	+0.6	236/315/359	123	271	11	11	17%	9%	93	+0.8	231/320/355	124	264	10	10	16%	10%	94	+0.6
✕Matt Downs 2010 · MLB	26	48→50	48→50	48→50	44	243/286/389	146	268	16	12	16%	5%	89	+0.5	229/289/378	149	263	17	8	20%	6%	88	+0.4	216/283/367	151	247	19	5	21%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Jamie Hoffmann 2010 · MLB	25	50→53	44→45	50→55	50	243/301/365	122	279	11	18	17%	7%	88	+0.5	228/282/342	114	281	11	14	22%	6%	76	-0.4	221/275/332	111	274	12	13	23%	6%	70	-0.8
✕Luis Jimenez 2013 · AAA	25	49→50	49→60	49→50	41	245/276/400	155	273	16	15	18%	3%	88	+0.4	229/260/357	128	268	13	13	20%	3%	72	-0.7	226/257/348	122	266	12	13	20%	3%	67	-0.8
✕Brian Cavazos-Galvez 2013 · AAA	26	48→51	49→55	50→55	39	243/269/396	153	269	16	16	18%	2%	84	+0.1	221/250/327	106	258	10	13	19%	3%	60	-1.6	209/235/292	83	244	8	13	18%	2%	43	-1.5
✕Manuel Margot 2020 · MLB	25	49→55	47→50	54→60	48	244/300/392	148	283	13	19	19%	7%	94	+0.9	251/308/377	126	292	12	20	17%	8%	94	+0.9	258/311/370	112	300	9	15	17%	7%	94	+0.6
✕Yamaico Navarro 2013 · MLB	25	46→56	46→50	47→50	49	232/292/366	134	273	14	13	21%	8%	86	+0.3	237/300/368	131	285	14	11	21%	8%	89	+0.5	228/297/375	147	261	20	9	21%	9%	90	+0.5
✕Sandro Fabian 2024 · AAA	26	45→48	52→55	48→45	41	235/276/403	168	263	20	6	20%	4%	88	+0.5	240/291/394	154	273	17	7	19%	6%	92	+0.7	242/295/394	152	270	16	4	17%	6%	90	+0.5
✕David Winfree 2012 · AAA	26	47→50	50	50→40	42	239/284/394	154	281	18	10	22%	5%	89	+0.5	232/287/370	138	294	15	11	25%	6%	85	+0.2	215/260/324	109	286	8	0	27%	5%	64	-0.2
✕Pablo Reyes 2019 · MLB	25	50→56	44→50	48→55	47	246/297/364	118	289	11	16	19%	7%	86	+0.3	235/289/376	141	280	14	12	21%	7%	86	+0.3	244/311/361	116	287	11	21	18%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Jason Repko 2006 · MLB	25	46→47	51→50	55	41	236/289/402	166	289	19	11	25%	5%	93	+0.8	236/306/373	137	291	14	19	23%	7%	93	+0.8	222/288/347	125	280	12	25	24%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Ryan Rua 2015 · MLB	25	47→55	50	46→50	43	241/295/394	153	294	18	7	25%	6%	93	+0.8	228/286/366	138	305	16	10	29%	6%	84	+0.1	217/274/354	136	303	17	14	33%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Stuart Fairchild 2022 · MLB	26	45→43	49→50	52→55	47	228/300/383	155	285	16	12	25%	8%	93	+0.8	225/305/378	153	300	16	17	29%	8%	94	+0.9	219/311/363	143	283	14	27	26%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Jimmy Govern 2022 · AAA	25	44	47→50	49→45	43	225/277/364	139	265	15	8	21%	5%	80	-0.2	201/249/314	113	253	11	8	25%	5%	58	-1.7	178/226/278	100	224	10	6	25%	4%	38	-1.3
✕Taylor Motter 2015 · AA	25	48→49	44→50	50→55	46	238/287/358	119	275	12	17	18%	6%	82	-0.0	227/280/360	133	264	14	20	20%	6%	80	-0.2	198/274/355	157	245	19	5	27%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Diego Castillo 2023 · MLB	25	43→53	51→50	43→50	44	224/277/381	157	258	20	7	22%	6%	84	+0.2	240/311/345	105	293	9	10	20%	9%	88	+0.4	242/319/330	88	296	6	10	19%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Eliseo Aldazaba 2016 · AAA	25	43→47	52→55	47→50	42	227/282/388	161	279	21	12	27%	6%	88	+0.4	217/276/351	134	275	14	13	26%	6%	77	-0.3	206/267/328	122	262	11	14	25%	6%	67	-0.7
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2024 · MLB	25	44→49	48→55	52→50	45	223/281/364	141	278	16	16	26%	7%	81	-0.1	235/291/347	112	288	13	11	22%	7%	80	-0.1	241/292/345	104	296	13	9	23%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Andrew Navigato 2023 · AA	25	42→41	48→55	49→50	43	216/280/356	141	266	16	14	26%	6%	80	-0.2	218/276/377	159	279	17	15	28%	6%	83	+0.1	207/267/370	164	270	18	17	30%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Josh Wilson 2006 · AAA	25	42→50	47→45	50	43	215/271/352	137	266	14	14	25%	6%	75	-0.5	234/290/354	120	277	11	15	19%	6%	82	-0.0	238/294/344	106	278	8	16	17%	5%	80	-0.1

Luis Matos

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps