Luis Matos — OGILVIE

Luis MatosRF Nashville Sounds

Age 24 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs AAA HR -4% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION199 act + 151 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 5457vR 64

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .280 / .353

PA151

HR4

K%15

BB%6

BABIP239

ISO129

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

798.0%

xwOBA

120.264

POWER45

Barrel%

295.5

Avg EV

2687.3

Bat Spd

5271.6

EYE35

Chase%

1538.5%

SPEED50

Sprint

3626.8

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 340 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

137

203

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

271

284

▶R

ISO

215

142

◀◀L

BABIP

181

245

▶▶R

17.5%

13.3%

▶▶R

BB%

3.6%

4.9%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	AZL Giants Orange	—	290	259	70	17	1	6	12	45	15	21	3	270	339	413	752	143	302	16	4	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK	AZL Giants Orange	—	290	251	92	25	2	7	20	31	15	21	3	367	444	566	1.010	199	392	11	7	439	194	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	San Jose Giants	—	491	465	123	27	1	12	14	90	7	21	5	265	296	404	701	140	302	18	3	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	San Jose Giants	—	491	451	141	35	1	15	28	61	7	21	5	313	362	494	857	182	332	12	6	375	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	2 teams	—	500	465	76	13	1	9	22	106	8	12	5	163	214	254	468	90	189	21	4	207	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	2 teams	—	500	455	98	17	2	13	32	85	8	12	5	215	279	347	626	132	235	17	6	280	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB	3 teams	—	538	490	136	26	3	12	40	61	5	18	5	278	338	416	755	139	297	11	7	327	109	+5	+2	-6	+2	+15	1.8
2023	21	MLB	3 teams	—	538	482	141	27	3	14	48	56	5	18	5	293	363	448	811	156	308	10	9	360	134	+20	+2	-6	+2	+15	3.4
2024	22	AAA	3 teams	—	766	709	153	31	0	24	34	98	14	11	3	216	266	361	627	145	216	13	4	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA	3 teams	—	766	698	182	47	1	29	45	87	14	11	3	261	318	456	774	195	259	11	6	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB	3 teams	—	411	385	90	22	1	18	20	63	1	10	0	234	273	436	710	203	233	15	5	306	92	-4	+2	-6	-4	+12	-0.0
2025	23	MLB	3 teams	—	411	384	88	21	1	15	21	52	1	10	0	229	271	406	677	177	227	13	5	295	84	-7	+2	-6	-4	+12	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AAA	MIL	—	199	182	37	6	0	3	12	27	3	6	4	203	264	286	550	82	221	14	6	251	51	-11	-0	+1	-2	+6	-0.8
YTD	24	AAA	MIL	—	199	177	42	7	0	4	17	24	3	6	4	237	315	345	659	107	252	12	9	299	87	-3	-0	+1	-2	+6	0.1
ROS	24	AAA	MIL	10%	151	139	31	6	0	4	9	23	2	4	2	223	280	353	633	129	245	15	6	289	79	-4	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.2
ROS	24	MLB	MIL	10%	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	214	267	286	552	71	243	13	7	277	70	-1	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	AAA	MIL	—	214	196	40	7	0	3	13	29	3	6	4	204	264	286	550	82	223	14	6	253	52	-12	-0	+1	-2	+6	-0.8
TOT	24	AAA	MIL	—	350	321	68	12	0	7	21	50	5	10	6	212	271	315	586	103	228	14	6	268	63	-15	-0	-0	-4	+10	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	MIL	35%	470	434	100	19	1	13	27	71	6	11	4	230	285	369	653	138	247	15	6	294	83	-9	+1	-3	-5	+13	-0.3
2027	25	MLB	MIL	35%	163	151	35	7	0	5	9	24	2	4	2	232	284	377	661	146	245	15	6	282	74	-5	+0	-1	-2	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	771	715	165	35	2	20	46	110	5	11	2	231	282	369	651	138	247	14	6	287	78	-19	+1	-18	-2	+22	-1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	603	140	30	2	17	39	93	4	9	2	232	284	373	657	141	248	14	6	287	78	-16	+1	-15	-1	+18	-1.3
Career	—			—	3617	3346	779	161	8	98	178	557	58	108	27	233	283	374	657	141	250	15	5	286	77	-93	+11	-20	-20	+102	-2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	601	140	29	1	18	32	100	10	19	5	233	283	374	657	141	249	15	5	286	77	-17	+2	-4	-4	+18	-0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	AZL Giants Orange	—	290	251	92	25	2	7	20	31	15	21	3	367	444	566	1.010	199	392	11	7	439	194	+31	+3	—	—	+8	4.3
2021	19	A	San Jose Giants	—	491	451	141	35	1	15	28	61	7	21	5	313	362	494	857	182	332	12	6	375	145	+25	+2	—	—	+14	4.2
2022	20	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	407	369	78	14	1	11	27	65	7	11	3	211	278	344	622	133	226	16	7	279	72	-13	+1	—	—	+12	-0.1
2022	20	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	93	86	20	3	1	2	5	20	1	1	2	233	283	360	643	128	277	22	5	285	76	-2	-1	—	—	+3	-0.0
2023	21	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	253	228	57	13	1	2	20	33	3	3	0	250	319	342	661	92	285	13	8	299	87	-4	+1	-6	+2	+7	0.0
2023	21	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	152	139	49	7	2	9	11	11	1	6	1	353	404	626	1.030	273	336	7	7	443	198	+17	+1	—	—	+4	2.2
2023	21	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	133	115	35	7	0	3	17	12	1	9	4	304	398	443	842	139	320	9	13	379	148	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.1
2024	22	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	156	150	32	5	0	5	5	24	0	0	0	213	239	347	585	133	221	15	3	258	56	-8	+0	-5	+3	+4	-0.5
2024	22	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	375	328	84	22	0	14	28	40	11	8	2	256	335	451	786	195	248	11	7	343	120	+9	+1	—	—	+11	2.0
2024	22	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	235	220	66	20	1	10	12	23	3	3	1	300	345	536	881	236	299	10	5	384	152	+14	+0	—	—	+7	2.1
2025	23	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	184	172	38	9	1	8	11	27	0	4	0	221	268	424	692	203	217	15	6	302	89	-2	+1	-6	-4	+5	-0.7
2025	23	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	159	147	43	11	0	7	8	20	1	6	0	293	333	510	844	218	293	13	5	362	136	+6	+1	—	—	+5	1.2
2025	23	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	68	65	7	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	108	134	123	257	15	115	7	3	119	-50	-12	+0	—	—	+2	-1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	593	550	127	27	2	15	36	84	3	7	0	231	282	369	651	138	247	14	6	289	80	-14	+1	-16	+0	+17	-1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	791	21	11	233	281	374	-8	-14	-0.1	-0.1
	/162	664	17	10	233	281	374	-7.1	-11.8	-0.1	pk7: -0
#5Brennan Boeschlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,713 PA	6	1,713	48	22	250	303	400	-17	-35	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	19	9	250	303	400	-6.6	-13.6	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	21	9	246	305	405	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Matos (OGILVIE)	24	45	45	50	35	212/271/315	103	228	7	10	14%	6%	63	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Loftin 2023 · AAA	24	44→53	48→50	53→50	46	225/285/363	138	263	16	18	21%	7%	81	+0.4	240/309/371	131	275	15	13	18%	8%	92	+1.2	240/320/368	128	270	14	11	16%	9%	94	+0.9
✕German Duran 2009 · MLB	24	47→50	49→50	48→45	43	239/281/389	150	276	16	8	20%	5%	85	+0.7	214/257/311	97	256	9	6	20%	5%	54	-1.4	202/242/268	66	242	6	4	19%	4%	34	-1.2
✕Luis Jimenez 2013 · AAA	25	47→48	51→60	48→50	40	240/270/402	162	265	18	15	18%	3%	84	+0.6	222/252/345	123	261	12	13	20%	3%	61	-1.0	218/249/333	114	259	11	13	20%	3%	55	-1.0
✕Diego Castillo 2022 · AAA	24	45→54	51→50	46→50	47	231/282/391	160	249	19	10	17%	6%	87	+0.8	228/291/354	126	277	13	9	22%	8%	80	+0.4	226/299/327	101	269	9	9	18%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Yairo Muñoz 2019 · MLB	24	50→55	48→50	47→55	43	249/295/388	138	305	16	13	24%	6%	91	+1.1	262/302/382	120	319	11	18	21%	5%	92	+1.2	270/297/370	100	322	9	23	19%	3%	82	+0.2
✕Cal Mitchell 2023 · MLB	24	49→51	48→50	47→50	43	246/292/392	146	290	16	10	21%	5%	90	+1.0	212/267/340	128	286	14	11	30%	7%	66	-0.6	184/243/298	114	260	13	10	33%	7%	43	-1.2
✕Lewis Brinson 2018 · MLB	24	44→52	51→55	52→50	42	229/280/393	163	285	19	16	27%	6%	86	+0.8	205/257/335	130	282	14	12	31%	5%	61	-1.0	233/275/409	176	307	23	8	31%	5%	85	+0.3
✕Brian Rey 2022 · AAA	24	48	46→50	40→45	44	238/300/363	125	275	14	7	19%	5%	87	+0.8	222/278/326	104	275	10	9	23%	5%	68	-0.5	193/242/264	71	239	6	9	21%	2%	32	-0.8
✕Josh Vitters 2014 · MLB	24	44→48	50	44→45	43	227/275/381	154	264	19	7	22%	5%	81	+0.4	197/238/315	118	270	15	8	32%	4%	47	-1.9	162/194/257	95	223	14	5	34%	3%	10	-3.0
✕Jefry Marte 2016 · MLB	25	45→47	49→55	46→50	44	232/282/379	147	269	18	9	22%	6%	83	+0.6	225/285/389	164	260	20	8	22%	7%	88	+0.9	216/281/377	161	247	21	7	22%	7%	81	+0.2
●Moisés Sierra 2013 · MLB	24	47→55	48→50	42→50	42	241/289/376	135	295	17	10	25%	5%	85	+0.7	241/288/369	128	318	13	14	27%	5%	82	+0.5	248/314/378	130	302	14	15	22%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Aaron Luna 2011 · AAA	24	43→44	49→50	50→45	49	217/325/371	154	268	16	7	25%	9%	101	+1.8	232/318/376	144	295	16	9	26%	8%	98	+1.6	231/316/372	142	294	19	8	27%	7%	96	+0.7
✕Clint Frazier 2019 · MLB	24	46→45	50→55	52→50	43	232/291/395	163	302	16	11	28%	7%	91	+1.1	230/302/399	169	295	19	7	27%	8%	97	+1.5	219/303/387	168	279	19	5	27%	9%	91	+0.6
✕Diego Rincones 2023 · AA	24	46→51	51→50	47→30	41	238/285/386	147	266	20	3	20%	4%	86	+0.8	226/274/359	133	266	16	5	22%	5%	75	-0.0	204/252/333	129	234	17	0	21%	5%	59	-0.4
✕Manuel Margot 2019 · MLB	24	51→53	45→50	52→60	47	250/298/386	136	290	11	17	18%	6%	91	+1.1	248/307/389	141	288	14	22	18%	8%	96	+1.5	246/310/381	135	282	14	26	17%	8%	92	+0.7
✕Stuart Fairchild 2022 · MLB	26	44→42	51→50	51→55	46	225/296/386	161	279	18	12	26%	8%	91	+1.1	222/301/376	154	297	17	17	30%	7%	92	+1.2	220/316/365	145	284	15	26	26%	9%	92	+0.7
●Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	48→53	51→55	51→50	47	245/302/410	166	280	19	13	21%	7%	100	+1.7	221/308/380	159	262	17	11	22%	10%	95	+1.4	221/322/407	185	244	21	11	19%	12%	106	+1.7
✕Eliseo Aldazaba 2015 · AAA	24	44→45	49→55	49→50	39	227/270/376	149	286	17	13	27%	5%	78	+0.2	219/272/371	152	270	19	13	26%	5%	77	+0.1	204/263/352	147	249	18	13	26%	6%	67	-0.3
●Victor Robles 2021 · MLB	24	49→54	47→50	53→60	44	242/314/383	141	299	14	22	23%	6%	98	+1.6	225/298/334	109	291	9	19	25%	7%	79	+0.3	283/353/387	105	352	6	51	20%	6%	113	+0.9
✕Jason Repko 2006 · MLB	25	46→48	51→50	55	42	236/291/401	166	289	19	11	25%	6%	93	+1.3	237/308/374	137	293	14	19	23%	7%	93	+1.3	225/290/351	126	285	13	21	25%	6%	77	+0.1