Jose Parra — OGILVIE

Jose Parra P ACL Athletics

Age 20 LHP 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%23.1%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD3045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+1.5	$8M	+$5M
2033	Arb-2	$9M	+1.4	$7M	+$2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$17M		$31M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	7	1	11	60	12	18	0	14%	1.5	13.6%	37.5%	-23.9%	0.0%	10.12	6.70	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	7	1	11	60	12	18	0	14%	1.5	13.6%	37.5%	-23.9%	0.0%	10.12	6.70	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	7	1	11	60	12	18	0	14%	1.5	20.0%	30.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	10.12	5.91	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	8	44	174	52	23	1	73%	4.0	20.3%	16.5%	3.8%	0.9%	2.64	3.99	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	8	44	174	52	23	1	73%	4.0	20.3%	16.5%	3.8%	0.9%	2.64	3.99	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	11	8	44	174	52	23	1	73%	4.0	29.9%	13.2%	16.7%	0.6%	2.64	2.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	14	11	45	227	45	47	4	79%	3.2	13.7%	26.4%	-12.7%	2.1%	9.20	6.45	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	14	11	45	227	45	47	4	79%	3.2	13.7%	26.4%	-12.7%	2.1%	9.20	6.45	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	OAK	12	9	40	199	40	42	3	75%	3.3	20.1%	21.1%	-1.0%	1.5%	9.30	4.90	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	OAK	2	2	5	28	5	5	1	100%	2.6	17.9%	17.9%	0.0%	3.6%	8.44	5.81	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	OAK	1	1	6	24	6	4	1	100%	5.7	23.1%	18.4%	4.7%	2.9%	5.44	5.44	-0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	51	251	51	51	5	—	—	20.1%	20.5%	-0.3%	1.9%	8.77	6.33	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	106	446	100	73	13	100%	4.8	22.5%	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	5.25	5.20	-0.4
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	29	29	147	620	149	88	17	100%	5.1	24.1%	14.1%	10.0%	2.8%	4.93	4.77	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	33	33	175	739	185	94	20	100%	5.3	25.1%	12.7%	12.4%	2.8%	4.65	4.48	+0.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	OAK	32	32	179	757	195	89	21	100%	5.6	25.7%	11.8%	13.9%	2.7%	4.43	4.30	+1.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	OAK	31	31	180	760	198	85	21	100%	5.8	26.1%	11.2%	14.9%	2.7%	4.28	4.18	+1.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	OAK	30	30	180	760	200	85	21	100%	6.0	26.3%	11.1%	15.1%	2.7%	4.21	4.16	+1.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	OAK	30	30	177	749	197	84	21	100%	5.9	26.3%	11.2%	15.1%	2.8%	4.20	4.20	+1.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	OAK	29	29	172	726	190	82	21	100%	5.9	26.2%	11.3%	14.8%	2.9%	4.25	4.28	+1.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	164	694	180	80	21	100%	6.1	25.9%	11.6%	14.3%	3.0%	4.35	4.41	+0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	154	652	167	77	21	100%	5.9	25.6%	11.9%	13.7%	3.2%	4.49	4.59	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	OAK	24	24	144	608	153	74	21	100%	6.0	25.2%	12.2%	12.9%	3.4%	4.67	4.79	+0.2
2038	32	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	133	562	139	71	21	100%	6.1	24.7%	12.6%	12.1%	3.7%	4.88	5.02	-0.2
2039	33	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	122	516	125	67	20	100%	6.1	24.2%	13.1%	11.1%	4.0%	5.11	5.27	-0.5
2027	21	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	52	220	49	36	6	100%	4.7	22.5%	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	5.21	5.16	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	21	21	107	452	109	64	12	100%	5.1	24.1%	14.1%	10.0%	2.7%	4.89	4.73	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	28	28	148	625	157	79	17	100%	5.3	25.1%	12.7%	12.4%	2.7%	4.61	4.44	+0.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	OAK	29	29	160	676	173	79	18	100%	5.5	25.7%	11.8%	13.9%	2.7%	4.39	4.26	+1.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	OAK	28	28	165	697	182	78	18	100%	5.9	26.1%	11.2%	14.9%	2.6%	4.24	4.14	+1.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	OAK	28	28	168	709	186	79	19	100%	6.0	26.3%	11.1%	15.1%	2.6%	4.17	4.12	+1.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	OAK	28	28	168	709	186	79	19	100%	6.0	26.3%	11.2%	15.1%	2.7%	4.16	4.16	+1.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	OAK	27	27	163	688	180	78	19	100%	6.0	26.2%	11.3%	14.8%	2.8%	4.21	4.24	+1.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	OAK	26	26	156	659	171	76	19	100%	6.0	25.9%	11.6%	14.3%	2.9%	4.31	4.37	+0.9
2036	30	MLB CTX	OAK	24	24	147	621	159	74	19	100%	6.1	25.6%	11.9%	13.7%	3.1%	4.45	4.55	+0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	137	578	146	71	19	100%	6.0	25.2%	12.2%	12.9%	3.4%	4.62	4.74	+0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	OAK	21	21	127	536	133	68	19	100%	6.0	24.7%	12.6%	12.1%	3.6%	4.83	4.97	-0.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	116	490	119	64	19	100%	6.1	24.2%	13.1%	11.1%	3.9%	5.06	5.22	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		313	313	1813	7657	1948	925	225	100%	5.8	25.4%	12.1%	13.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.09	+17.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	215	102	25	100%	5.8	25.4%	12.1%	13.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		32	20	100	461	75	111	6	62%	3.1	16.2%	24.1%	-7.9%	1.4%	6.39	5.55	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	40	200	922	149	222	13	62%	3.1	16.2%	24.1%	-7.9%	1.4%	6.39	5.55	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Parra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	23.1%	18.4%	2.9%	—	4.76	24.1%	10.0%	428	-0.68	—	—	—
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	83
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	78
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	77
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	76
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	76
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	75
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	75
Luis Rico L 2015 · 4.61 FIP	21	SP-	4.61	17.2%	13.0%	2.4%	.303	5.03	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.42	4.30	199	74
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	74
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	73
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	73
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	73
Raúl Alcantara L 2021 · 4.31 FIP	20	SP-	4.31	19.6%	12.8%	2.3%	.295	4.50	19.0%	4.2%	229	+0.19	3.82	396	73
Matt Krook L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP-	4.42	19.3%	18.2%	1.2%	.292	4.10	21.6%	5.2%	124	-0.32	2.47	631	72
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	72
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	72
Roberto Medina L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	18	SP	4.85	21.6%	21.7%	1.5%	.313	5.67	16.4%	-2.1%	73	+0.82	3.87	109	71
Francisco Morao L 2023 · 4.30 FIP	17	SP	4.30	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.303	4.59	18.4%	1.5%	115	+0.29	4.00	154	71
Cooper Hjerpe L 2023 · 6.23 FIP	22	SP-	6.23	23.0%	16.8%	5.3%	.207	3.77	28.5%	11.7%	86	-2.46	3.61	127	71
Manuel Osorio L 2023 · 4.83 FIP	17	SP-	4.83	15.5%	17.7%	1.4%	.276	4.91	16.8%	-0.2%	130	+0.08	3.90	168	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.5	150	25.3%	12.4%	1.16	4.57
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98