Jose Parra

P ACL Athletics

Age 21 LHP 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#412ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKOAK	7	1	11	10.12	5.91	20.0%	30.0%	—	K 13.6% · BB 37.5% · FIP 6.70
2025	19	ROKOAK	11	8	44	2.64	2.60	29.9%	13.2%	—	K 20.3% · BB 16.5% · FIP 3.99
2026	20	MIX2 levels	14	11	45	9.20	5.39	19.8%	20.7%	—	K 13.7% · BB 26.4% · FIP 6.45
2027PROJ	21	MLBOAK	—	—	0	5.92	5.92	20.0%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBOAK	9	9	45	5.43	5.24	22.2%	16.7%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBOAK	15	15	80	5.03	4.82	23.7%	14.5%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$4M2034Ext$6M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJulio Robaina (age 21) · Noah Dean (age 22) · Victor Payano (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129137vR 146

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%20.0%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.0%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	7	1	11	60	12	18	0	14%	1.5	13.6%	37.5%	-23.9%	0.0%	10.12	6.70	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	7	1	11	60	12	18	0	14%	1.5	13.6%	37.5%	-23.9%	0.0%	10.12	6.70	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	7	1	11	60	12	18	0	14%	1.5	20.0%	30.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	10.12	5.91	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	8	44	174	52	23	1	73%	4.0	20.3%	16.5%	3.8%	0.9%	2.64	3.99	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	8	44	174	52	23	1	73%	4.0	20.3%	16.5%	3.8%	0.9%	2.64	3.99	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	11	8	44	174	52	23	1	73%	4.0	29.9%	13.2%	16.7%	0.6%	2.64	2.60	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	45	227	45	47	4	79%	3.2	13.7%	26.4%	-12.7%	2.1%	9.20	6.45	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	45	227	45	47	4	79%	3.2	13.7%	26.4%	-12.7%	2.1%	9.20	6.45	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	45	227	45	47	4	79%	3.2	19.8%	20.7%	-0.9%	1.8%	9.20	5.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.0%	20.0%	-0.0%	2.9%	5.92	5.92	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	91	384	85	64	11	100%	5.1	22.2%	16.7%	5.6%	2.8%	5.47	5.28	+0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	110	463	110	67	13	100%	5.5	23.7%	14.5%	9.2%	2.8%	5.07	4.86	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	117	495	122	65	14	100%	5.6	24.6%	13.0%	11.5%	2.8%	4.77	4.59	+1.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	118	496	125	60	14	100%	5.9	25.1%	12.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.56	4.42	+1.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	118	497	126	60	14	100%	5.9	25.4%	12.1%	13.3%	2.8%	4.46	4.39	+1.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	115	485	123	59	14	100%	6.0	25.4%	12.2%	13.2%	2.8%	4.44	4.43	+1.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	110	462	117	57	14	100%	6.1	25.3%	12.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.49	4.52	+1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	102	431	108	54	13	100%	6.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	3.1%	4.58	4.65	+0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	93	393	97	50	13	100%	5.8	24.7%	12.8%	11.8%	3.3%	4.73	4.82	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	84	353	86	47	12	100%	6.0	24.3%	13.2%	11.1%	3.5%	4.91	5.03	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	75	315	75	43	12	100%	6.2	23.8%	13.6%	10.2%	3.8%	5.11	5.25	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	45	190	42	32	5	100%	5.0	22.2%	16.7%	5.6%	2.8%	5.43	5.24	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	80	338	80	49	9	100%	5.3	23.7%	14.5%	9.2%	2.7%	5.03	4.82	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	97	410	101	53	11	100%	5.7	24.6%	13.0%	11.5%	2.7%	4.73	4.55	+0.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	OAK	18	18	104	439	110	53	12	100%	5.8	25.1%	12.1%	13.0%	2.7%	4.52	4.38	+1.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	OAK	18	18	107	452	115	55	12	100%	5.9	25.4%	12.1%	13.3%	2.7%	4.42	4.35	+1.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	OAK	18	18	106	448	114	54	12	100%	5.9	25.4%	12.2%	13.2%	2.8%	4.40	4.39	+1.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	102	431	109	53	12	100%	6.0	25.3%	12.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.45	4.48	+1.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	97	410	102	51	12	100%	6.1	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	3.0%	4.54	4.61	+0.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	88	372	92	48	12	100%	5.9	24.7%	12.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.68	4.77	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	80	338	82	45	12	100%	6.2	24.3%	13.2%	11.1%	3.4%	4.86	4.98	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	71	300	71	41	11	100%	5.9	23.8%	13.6%	10.2%	3.7%	5.06	5.20	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	167	978	4127	1018	533	121	100%	5.9	24.7%	12.9%	11.7%	2.9%	4.68	4.27	+13.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	208	109	25	100%	5.8	24.7%	12.9%	11.7%	2.9%	4.68	4.27	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		32	20	100	461	75	111	6	62%	3.1	16.2%	24.1%	-7.9%	1.4%	6.39	5.55	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	40	200	922	149	222	13	62%	3.1	16.2%	24.1%	-7.9%	1.4%	6.39	5.55	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Athletics · 40 IPFIP 4.90 → 6.45 (+1.54)K% 20.1% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.10%	—	×0.680	13.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.11%	—	×1.250	26.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.90 → 6.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 5 IPFIP 5.81 → 6.99 (+1.18)K% 17.9% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.86%	—	×0.770	13.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.86%	—	×1.150	20.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.46%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.81 → 6.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Athletics · 44 IPFIP 2.57 → 3.99 (+1.42)K% 29.9% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.89%	—	×0.680	20.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.22%	—	×1.250	16.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷0.868	×1.400	0.93%

Result: FIP 2.57 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Athletics · 11 IPFIP 5.21 → 6.70 (+1.49)K% 20.0% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.680	13.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	30.00%	—	×1.250	37.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.215	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 5.21 → 6.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Parra (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.88	23.6%	9.0%	318	-1.04	—	—	—
Julio Robaina L 2022 · 5.55 FIP	21	SP-	5.55	17.4%	16.9%	3.2%	.347	4.04	18.2%	8.7%	178	-1.51	2.72	453	82
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	82
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	81
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	79
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	78
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	76
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	76
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	76
Esmerlin Vinicio L 2024 · 4.81 FIP	21	SW	4.81	16.2%	16.8%	1.7%	.261	4.29	19.5%	3.3%	113	-0.52	3.73	383	76
Brandon Herbold L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP-	6.27	17.2%	17.6%	4.3%	.296	5.06	19.8%	-3.9%	44	-1.21	3.72	105	75
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	21	SP-	5.99	13.6%	16.7%	3.5%	.209	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	128	75
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	74
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	74
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	73
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	73
Gabriel Cotto L 2021 · 5.09 FIP	21	SP-	5.09	19.8%	17.8%	2.6%	.307	5.21	15.5%	1.4%	155	+0.12	5.02	236	72
Jhordany Mezquita L 2019 · 5.69 FIP	21	SP-	5.69	16.0%	16.4%	3.4%	.294	5.15	18.5%	4.2%	90	-0.54	3.02	223	72
Travis Seabrooke L 2017 · 4.85 FIP	21	SP-	4.85	12.0%	14.1%	1.8%	.309	4.77	14.7%	3.7%	97	-0.08	3.99	198	71
Salvador Montano L 2015 · 5.23 FIP	21	SP-	5.23	11.5%	15.9%	2.0%	.301	4.65	21.3%	-0.0%	71	-0.58	4.44	116	71
Josue Arias L 2024 · 6.86 FIP	19	SP	6.86	13.8%	28.1%	2.5%	.250	7.30	9.3%	-30.1%	13	+0.44	4.73	114	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	101	24.3%	13.6%	1.16	4.83
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45