Josue Arias — OGILVIE

Josue Arias P FCL Marlins

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 165 lbs ROK

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147155vR 163

ERA6.86

FIP6.86

K%18.8%

BB%26.6%

K-BB%-7.8%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	12	8	23	136	25	37	2	67%	1.9	12.5%	34.0%	-21.5%	1.6%	13.30	7.26	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	12	8	23	136	25	37	2	67%	1.9	18.4%	27.2%	-8.8%	1.5%	13.30	6.88	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	41	188	52	28	2	100%	3.8	18.8%	18.6%	0.2%	1.6%	6.53	4.73	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	41	188	52	28	2	100%	3.8	18.8%	18.6%	0.2%	1.6%	6.53	4.73	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	11	41	188	52	28	2	100%	3.8	27.7%	14.9%	12.8%	1.1%	6.53	3.25	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	12	10	36	187	38	42	3	83%	3.0	13.8%	28.1%	-14.3%	2.5%	8.92	6.86	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	12	10	36	187	38	42	3	83%	3.0	13.8%	28.1%	-14.3%	2.5%	8.92	6.86	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	12	10	36	187	38	42	3	83%	3.0	20.3%	22.5%	-2.1%	1.6%	8.92	5.55	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	13	0	13	73	10	23	0	0%	1.0	9.3%	39.4%	-30.1%	0.0%	8.78	7.30	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	13	0	13	73	10	23	0	0%	1.0	9.3%	39.4%	-30.1%	0.0%	8.78	7.30	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	13	0	13	73	10	23	0	0%	1.0	13.7%	31.5%	-17.8%	0.0%	8.78	6.78	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	MIA	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	18.8%	26.6%	-7.8%	2.9%	6.86	6.86	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	34	145	30	31	4	100%	4.9	20.5%	21.5%	-1.0%	2.9%	6.27	6.05	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIA	3	3	17	72	15	15	2	100%	5.7	20.5%	21.5%	-1.0%	2.9%	6.27	6.05	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	17	71	15	15	2	100%	5.6	20.5%	21.5%	-1.0%	2.9%	6.27	5.67	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	178	178	24	100%	5.1	20.5%	21.5%	-1.0%	2.9%	6.27	5.67	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		48	29	114	584	85	162	10	60%	2.4	14.6%	27.8%	-13.3%	1.7%	8.92	6.32	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	51	200	1025	149	285	17	60%	2.4	14.6%	27.8%	-13.3%	1.7%	8.92	6.32	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josue Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.86	18.8%	26.6%	2.9%	—	6.05	20.5%	-1.0%	34	-0.81	—	—	—
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	82
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	80
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	79
Ryan Anderson L 2021 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP-	5.71	14.7%	26.1%	1.0%	.373	3.73	20.3%	11.0%	149	-1.98	2.80	214	78
Brayan De Paula L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	16.9%	16.4%	4.1%	.272	4.58	20.9%	6.1%	59	-1.42	3.57	243	72
Javier Navas L 2017 · 6.10 FIP	19	SW	6.10	11.1%	19.7%	2.6%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	103	71
Holden Laws L 2021 · 6.35 FIP	21	SP-	6.35	19.3%	15.6%	5.3%	.306	4.71	17.5%	7.1%	133	-1.64	2.96	190	71
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	70
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	70
Kikito Severino L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SW	5.78	11.9%	19.5%	2.2%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	135	70
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	68
Alexander Beltre L 2023 · 6.04 FIP	20	SW	6.04	15.5%	15.2%	4.2%	.244	4.75	15.1%	3.5%	12	-1.29	2.75	106	67
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	67
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	66
Levi Prater L 2021 · 7.22 FIP	22	SP-	7.22	23.1%	24.1%	5.5%	.338	6.76	15.8%	-7.7%	42	-0.46	6.76	110	66
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	65
Adam Shoemaker L 2023 · 6.29 FIP	20	SP-	6.29	15.5%	19.2%	3.8%	.304	5.00	19.6%	-2.9%	144	-1.29	4.41	246	65
Wander Cabrera L 2018 · 6.97 FIP	20	SP-	6.97	11.9%	16.7%	5.0%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	135	65
Rigoberto Borbolla L 2021 · 7.52 FIP	19	SP-	7.52	9.9%	25.2%	3.8%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	114	64
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	21	SP-	5.99	13.6%	16.7%	3.5%	.209	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	128	63