Josue Arias
P
FCL Marlins
Age 21
LHP
6'2" / 165 lbs
ROK
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107117vR 126
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
K%22.2%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%10.3%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 12 | 8 | 23 | 136 | 25 | 37 | 2 | 67% | 1.9 | 12.5% | 34.0% | -21.5% | 1.4% | 13.30 | 7.11 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 12 | 8 | 23 | 136 | 25 | 37 | 2 | 67% | 1.9 | 18.4% | 27.2% | -8.8% | 1.5% | 13.30 | 6.88 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Miami | 11 | 11 | 41 | 188 | 52 | 28 | 2 | 100% | 3.8 | 18.8% | 18.6% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 6.53 | 4.78 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Miami | 11 | 11 | 41 | 188 | 52 | 28 | 2 | 100% | 3.8 | 27.7% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 1.1% | 6.53 | 3.25 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 12 | 10 | 36 | 187 | 38 | 42 | 3 | 83% | 3.0 | 13.8% | 28.1% | -14.3% | 2.8% | 8.92 | 7.04 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 12 | 10 | 36 | 187 | 38 | 42 | 3 | 83% | 3.0 | 20.3% | 22.5% | -2.1% | 1.6% | 8.92 | 5.55 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 13 | 0 | 13 | 73 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 9.3% | 39.4% | -30.1% | 0.0% | 8.78 | 7.30 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 13 | 0 | 13 | 73 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.7% | 31.5% | -17.8% | 0.0% | 8.78 | 6.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 3 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 22.2% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.2% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.07 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.2% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 48 | 29 | 114 | 584 | 85 | 162 | 10 | 60% | 2.4 | 14.6% | 27.8% | -13.3% | 1.8% | 8.92 | 6.36 | -1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 51 | 200 | 1025 | 149 | 285 | 18 | 60% | 2.4 | 14.6% | 27.8% | -13.3% | 1.8% | 8.92 | 6.36 | -2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josue Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 22.2% | 11.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.45 | 23.2% | 12.6% | 20 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Matt Osterberg L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.89 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.14 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.25 | 3.59 | 294 | 84 |
| Develson Aria L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.07 | 19.9% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .346 | 6.50 | 16.7% | -11.9% | 47 | +2.43 | 4.07 | 137 | 79 |
| Spencer Giesting L 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.67 | 20.8% | 16.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 4.35 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 394 | -1.32 | 3.48 | 433 | 78 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.88 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .347 | 3.97 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.09 | 3.66 | 572 | 76 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.50 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.55 | 17.3% | 8.3% | 177 | -0.95 | 2.94 | 221 | 75 |
| Felipe De La Cruz L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.55 | 21.7% | 14.5% | 2.6% | .387 | 3.72 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 278 | -0.83 | 3.06 | 382 | 75 |
| Jonah Wesely L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.36 | 26.0% | 12.3% | 3.5% | .450 | 3.51 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 86 | -0.85 | 2.83 | 134 | 75 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.43 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 75 |
| Bailey Horn L 2028 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.71 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.45 | 4.13 | 265 | 74 |
| Jack Patterson L 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.72 | 14.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.08 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 80 | -1.64 | 3.08 | 127 | 73 |
| Jordi Martinez L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .277 | 4.56 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 120 | +0.72 | 3.15 | 205 | 73 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.64 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .289 | 2.98 | 26.6% | 12.9% | 99 | -1.66 | 2.15 | 175 | 72 |
| Tucker Novotny L 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 1.6% | .272 | 4.65 | 17.9% | 0.5% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.81 | 112 | 72 |
| Lucas Knowles L 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.79 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .366 | 4.10 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.31 | 3.37 | 275 | 72 |
| Jacob Lopez L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.66 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .302 | 3.58 | 30.4% | 21.6% | 55 | -0.08 | 3.50 | 478 | 71 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .323 | 5.29 | 17.1% | 6.0% | 62 | +1.46 | 3.83 | 119 | 71 |
| Josh Simpson L 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.43 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.28 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.15 | 3.07 | 247 | 71 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2029 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 71 |
| Tommy Sommer L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.59 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 4.2% | .196 | 5.30 | 18.6% | 6.1% | 205 | +0.71 | 4.20 | 230 | 71 |
| Josh Hendrickson L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.99 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .250 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.93 | 319 | 71 |