Josue Arias
P FCL Marlins| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKMIA | 12 | 10 | 36 | 8.92 | 5.55 | 20.3% | 22.5% | — | K 13.8% · BB 28.1% · FIP 6.86 |
| 2025 | 20 | ROKMIA | 13 | 0 | 13 | 8.78 | 6.78 | 13.7% | 31.5% | — | K 9.3% · BB 39.4% · FIP 7.30 |
| 2027PROJ | 22 | MLBMIA | — | — | 0 | 5.88 | 5.88 | 20.8% | 20.0% | — | |
| 2028PROJ49% MLB | 23 | MLBMIA | 2 | 2 | 9 | 5.51 | 5.36 | 21.8% | 16.7% | 0.0 |
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Miami | 12 | 8 | 23 | 136 | 25 | 37 | 2 | 67% | 1.9 | 12.5% | 34.0% | -21.5% | 1.6% | 13.30 | 7.26 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Miami | 12 | 8 | 23 | 136 | 25 | 37 | 2 | 67% | 1.9 | 18.4% | 27.2% | -8.8% | 1.5% | 13.30 | 6.88 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Miami | 11 | 11 | 41 | 188 | 52 | 28 | 2 | 100% | 3.8 | 18.8% | 18.6% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 6.53 | 4.73 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Miami | 11 | 11 | 41 | 188 | 52 | 28 | 2 | 100% | 3.8 | 27.7% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 1.1% | 6.53 | 3.25 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | 12 | 10 | 36 | 187 | 38 | 42 | 3 | 83% | 3.0 | 13.8% | 28.1% | -14.3% | 2.5% | 8.92 | 6.86 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | 12 | 10 | 36 | 187 | 38 | 42 | 3 | 83% | 3.0 | 13.8% | 28.1% | -14.3% | 2.5% | 8.92 | 6.86 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Marlins | 12 | 10 | 36 | 187 | 38 | 42 | 3 | 83% | 3.0 | 20.3% | 22.5% | -2.1% | 1.6% | 8.92 | 5.55 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | 13 | 0 | 13 | 73 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 9.3% | 39.4% | -30.1% | 0.0% | 8.78 | 7.30 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | 13 | 0 | 13 | 73 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 9.3% | 39.4% | -30.1% | 0.0% | 8.78 | 7.30 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK RAW | FCL Marlins | 13 | 0 | 13 | 73 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.7% | 31.5% | -17.8% | 0.0% | 8.78 | 6.78 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.8% | 20.0% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 5.88 | 5.88 | — |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIA | 3 | 3 | 18 | 74 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 16.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 5.51 | 5.36 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIA | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.8% | 16.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 5.51 | 5.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 2 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 21.8% | 16.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 5.51 | 4.98 | +0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 139 | 23 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.8% | 16.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 5.51 | 4.98 | +1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 48 | 29 | 114 | 584 | 85 | 162 | 10 | 60% | 2.4 | 14.6% | 27.8% | -13.3% | 1.7% | 8.92 | 6.32 | +0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 84 | 51 | 200 | 1025 | 149 | 285 | 17 | 60% | 2.4 | 14.6% | 27.8% | -13.3% | 1.7% | 8.92 | 6.32 | +0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 ROKFCL Marlins · 13 IPFIP 5.93 → 7.30 (+1.37)K% 13.7% → 9.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 13.70% | — | ×0.680 | 9.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 31.51% | — | ×1.250 | 39.38% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷0.910 | ×1.400 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).
Result: FIP 5.93 → 7.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Marlins · 36 IPFIP 5.11 → 6.86 (+1.75)K% 20.3% → 13.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 20.32% | — | ×0.680 | 13.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 22.46% | — | ×1.250 | 28.07% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.60% | ÷0.898 | ×1.400 | 2.50% |
Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).
Result: FIP 5.11 → 6.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKDSL Miami · 41 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.73 (+1.50)K% 27.7% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 27.66% | — | ×0.680 | 18.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 14.89% | — | ×1.250 | 18.62% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.06% | ÷0.948 | ×1.400 | 1.57% |
Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).
Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKDSL Miami · 23 IPFIP 5.80 → 7.26 (+1.46)K% 18.4% → 12.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 18.38% | — | ×0.680 | 12.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 27.21% | — | ×1.250 | 34.01% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.47% | ÷1.249 | ×1.400 | 1.65% |
Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).
Result: FIP 5.80 → 7.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).