Javier Atencio — OGILVIE

Javier Atencio P St. Lucie Mets

Age 24 LHP 6'0" / 160 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%21.1%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	12	8	36	165	25	16	2	67%	3.0	10.3%	12.1%	-1.8%	1.7%	4.75	4.70	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	12	8	36	165	25	16	2	67%	3.0	15.2%	9.7%	5.5%	1.2%	4.75	3.77	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	15	14	48	187	76	19	1	93%	3.2	27.6%	12.7%	14.9%	0.8%	2.44	2.83	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	15	14	48	187	76	19	1	93%	3.2	40.6%	10.2%	30.5%	0.5%	2.44	1.39	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	44	187	56	25	1	85%	3.4	21.0%	16.1%	5.0%	0.8%	2.06	3.80	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	44	187	56	25	1	85%	3.4	29.9%	13.4%	16.6%	0.5%	2.06	2.55	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	48	242	44	36	6	60%	3.2	12.9%	18.4%	-5.5%	2.4%	9.63	5.66	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	48	242	44	36	6	60%	3.2	12.9%	18.4%	-5.5%	2.4%	9.63	5.66	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	9	48	242	44	36	6	60%	3.2	18.2%	14.9%	3.3%	2.5%	9.63	5.16	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	NYM	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	3.0%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYM	4	4	24	103	22	12	3	100%	6.1	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	3.0%	4.84	4.78	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYM	2	2	10	42	9	5	1	100%	5.0	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	3.0%	4.84	4.78	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	44	10	5	1	100%	5.2	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	3.0%	4.84	4.40	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	95	19	100%	5.9	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	3.0%	4.84	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		55	42	175	781	139	118	12	76%	3.2	17.8%	15.1%	2.7%	1.5%	4.77	4.33	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	48	200	891	159	135	13	76%	3.2	17.8%	15.1%	2.7%	1.5%	4.77	4.33	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javier Atencio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	21.1%	13.1%	3.0%	—	4.78	21.7%	9.9%	24	-0.22	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	79
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	78
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	77
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	76
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	75
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	75
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	73
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	73
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	72
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	72
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	72
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	71
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	71
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	71
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	70
Justin Steele L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP	4.07	20.0%	12.9%	1.8%	.400	3.71	24.2%	14.1%	203	-0.36	2.74	785	70
Cionel Pérez L 2019 · 4.89 FIP	23	SP-	4.89	17.8%	11.8%	3.3%	.336	3.27	24.5%	13.7%	112	-1.62	2.67	514	70
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	70
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	70
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	69