Javier Atencio
P
St. Lucie Mets
Age 24
LHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%22.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 12 | 8 | 36 | 165 | 25 | 16 | 2 | 67% | 3.0 | 10.3% | 12.1% | -1.8% | 1.7% | 4.75 | 4.70 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 12 | 8 | 36 | 165 | 25 | 16 | 2 | 67% | 3.0 | 15.2% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 4.75 | 3.77 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 15 | 14 | 48 | 187 | 76 | 19 | 1 | 93% | 3.2 | 27.6% | 12.7% | 14.9% | 0.9% | 2.44 | 2.88 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 15 | 14 | 48 | 187 | 76 | 19 | 1 | 93% | 3.2 | 40.6% | 10.2% | 30.5% | 0.5% | 2.44 | 1.39 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 11 | 44 | 187 | 56 | 25 | 1 | 85% | 3.4 | 21.0% | 16.1% | 5.0% | 0.9% | 2.06 | 3.83 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 11 | 44 | 187 | 56 | 25 | 1 | 85% | 3.4 | 29.9% | 13.4% | 16.6% | 0.5% | 2.06 | 2.55 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 9 | 48 | 242 | 44 | 36 | 6 | 60% | 3.2 | 12.9% | 18.4% | -5.5% | 2.0% | 9.63 | 5.42 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 9 | 48 | 242 | 44 | 36 | 6 | 60% | 3.2 | 18.2% | 14.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 9.63 | 5.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 4 | 4 | 24 | 102 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 4 | 4 | 24 | 103 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.93 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 76 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 55 | 42 | 175 | 781 | 139 | 118 | 11 | 76% | 3.2 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 4.77 | 4.28 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 48 | 200 | 891 | 159 | 135 | 12 | 76% | 3.2 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 4.77 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Javier Atencio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.31 | 23.4% | 14.1% | 24 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 81 |
| Brady Basso L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 269 | 79 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 78 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 78 |
| Jojo Ingrassia L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.97 | 26.7% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 112 | 75 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .382 | 4.08 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 171 | 75 |
| Evan Lee L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 73 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 69 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 69 |
| Drake Owenby L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.88 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 140 | 69 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 69 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 69 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 68 |
| Andrew Sears L 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 232 | 68 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.84 | 24.2% | 6.1% | 32 | -0.27 | 2.75 | 315 | 68 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 68 |
| Jake Bennett L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.48 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .276 | 2.79 | 21.0% | 16.1% | 87 | -0.69 | 2.79 | 219 | 67 |
| Rio Britton L 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.77 | 22.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 128 | 67 |
| Rodney Boone L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 18.1% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .221 | 3.74 | 18.5% | 10.8% | 78 | -0.88 | 3.74 | 311 | 67 |
| Jordan Wicks L 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.99 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 4.5% | .306 | 3.93 | 19.3% | 11.4% | 144 | -1.06 | 2.93 | 431 | 67 |