Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 7 | 30 | 163 | 32 | 33 | 1 | 44% | 1.9 | 14.7% | 26.1% | -11.4% | 1.0% | 10.01 | 5.71 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 7 | 30 | 163 | 32 | 33 | 1 | 44% | 1.9 | 19.6% | 20.2% | -0.6% | 0.6% | 10.01 | 4.72 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 35 | 0 | 61 | 273 | 64 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.3% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 4.26 | 4.99 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 35 | 0 | 61 | 273 | 64 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.8 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 3.93 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 58 | 229 | 64 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 14.2% | 1.0% | 2.17 | 2.79 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 58 | 229 | 64 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.9% | 7.0% | 21.0% | 0.9% | 2.17 | 2.17 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 25 | 1 | 30 | 120 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 4% | 1.2 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 0.9% | 3.00 | 2.84 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 25 | 1 | 30 | 120 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 4% | 1.2 | 28.3% | 8.3% | 20.0% | 0.8% | 3.00 | 2.27 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 43 | 190 | 38 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 15.6% | 11.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 4.57 | 4.26 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 43 | 190 | 38 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.0% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 1.6% | 4.57 | 3.63 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 43 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 11.4% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 43 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 42 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 11.4% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.97 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.95 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 23 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 11.4% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.97 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 39 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.62 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 149 | 96 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 148 | 8 | 222 | 975 | 179 | 122 | 19 | 5% | 1.5 | 18.4% | 12.5% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 4.37 | 4.19 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 7 | 200 | 877 | 161 | 110 | 17 | 5% | 1.5 | 18.4% | 12.5% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 4.37 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Anderson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 17.2% | 11.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.99 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 113 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 88 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.22 | 18.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .271 | 3.74 | 32.4% | 26.1% | 65 | -0.48 | 1.79 | 186 | 86 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 84 |
| Haylen Green L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 84 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 83 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 82 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.99 | 13.4% | 10.0% | 3.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 256 | 82 |
| Justin Wright L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.48 | 14.7% | 13.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 109 | 82 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 34 | -0.35 | 2.34 | 338 | 82 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.07 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .269 | 3.89 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.18 | 3.86 | 161 | 81 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.53 | 13.3% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .331 | 4.05 | 15.3% | 6.7% | 44 | -0.48 | 3.59 | 110 | 81 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.20 | 16.2% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 195 | 81 |
| Jeff Belge L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 175 | 80 |
| Ryan Och L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 1.2% | .287 | 2.86 | 27.1% | 10.9% | 16 | -1.00 | 2.58 | 140 | 80 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 80 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 80 |
| Juan Martinez L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.85 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 273 | 79 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .197 | 4.72 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.75 | 3.97 | 133 | 79 |
| Andy Fisher L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.23 | 17.2% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 167 | 79 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.25 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 2.3% | .289 | 5.86 | 19.8% | 2.0% | 40 | +1.61 | 4.10 | 118 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 1.08 | 4.94 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |