Justin Gonzales — OGILVIE

Justin GonzalesRF Greenville Drive

Age 19 R/R 6'5" / 210 lbs A+ HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION507 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP296

ISO120

MLB%11%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$32M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 54 / POW 61

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT54

scouting grade only

POWER61

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED43

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+1.6	$9M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$11M	+1.7	$9M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$16M	+1.7	$8M	+$0.2M
Totals		$36M		$43M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	172	55	11	4	5	19	20	1	8	3	320	391	517	908	198	340	10	10	399	156	+13	+0	—	—	+4	1.8
2025	18	A+	Greenville Drive	—	49	43	8	0	0	0	4	11	1	1	3	186	271	186	457		242	22	8	220	35	-4	-1	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	18	A	Salem Red Sox	—	357	312	93	23	2	4	35	52	8	11	7	298	383	423	806	125	345	15	10	362	131	+13	-1	—	—	+8	2.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	180	43	7	3	4	11	30	1	8	3	239	286	378	664	139	272	16	6	293	84	-4	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2025	18	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	49	45	7	0	0	0	2	16	1	1	3	156	208	156	364		228	33	4	177	6	-5	-1	—	—	+1	-0.6
2025	18	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	357	325	85	20	1	4	22	76	8	11	7	262	324	366	690	105	324	21	6	303	91	-4	-1	—	—	+8	0.3
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	180	43	7	3	4	11	30	1	8	3	239	286	378	664	139	267	16	6	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	172	55	11	4	5	19	20	1	8	3	320	391	517	908	198	340	10	10	399	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	406	370	92	20	1	4	24	91	9	12	10	249	310	341	651	92	317	22	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	406	355	101	23	2	4	39	63	9	12	10	285	370	394	764	110	333	16	10	345	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	178	43	7	3	4	11	30	1	8	3	242	286	382	668	140	272	16	6	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	406	370	92	20	1	4	24	91	9	12	10	249	310	341	651	92	312	22	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	178	43	7	3	4	11	30	1	8	3	242	286	382	668	140	272	16	6	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	406	370	92	20	1	4	24	91	9	12	10	249	310	341	651	92	312	22	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A+ MLE	BOS	—	507	444	102	12	3	15	45	133	15	12	4	230	321	372	693	142	291	26	9	304	92	-5	+1	+0	-5	+11	0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A+ RAW	BOS	—	422	350	95	12	2	17	56	79	14	11	3	271	393	463	856	191	305	19	13	382	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	AA RAW	BOS	—	85	71	17	2	1	2	12	22	1	1	1	239	357	380	737	141	312	26	14	333	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	A+ MLE	BOS	11%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		291	22	11	305	92	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	19	MLB CTX	BOS	11%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						296	0	0	288	92	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	19	MLB A+C	BOS	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	288	92	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	19	A+ MLE	BOS	—	516	452	103	12	3	15	46	135	15	12	4	228	320	367	687	139	289	26	9	304	92	-5	+1	+0	-6	+11	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BOS	43%	548	486	116	17	3	16	45	135	12	9	4	239	319	385	703	146	293	25	8	313	98	-1	+0	+1	-6	+12	0.6
2028	21	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	591	523	127	19	3	19	50	141	13	9	4	243	324	400	724	157	294	24	8	324	105	+4	+0	+1	-6	+13	1.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	BOS	58%	612	541	135	20	3	23	53	142	13	10	4	250	331	425	756	176	295	23	9	335	113	+10	+0	+1	-7	+13	1.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	BOS	59%	627	554	141	21	3	25	55	142	13	10	4	255	336	439	775	184	296	23	9	344	119	+14	+0	+1	-7	+14	2.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	BOS	59%	634	560	144	21	3	27	56	142	13	10	4	257	339	450	789	193	297	22	9	349	123	+17	+0	+1	-7	+14	2.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	BOS	58%	639	562	146	21	3	28	58	142	14	10	4	260	344	457	801	198	297	22	9	353	125	+19	+0	+1	-7	+14	2.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	BOS	58%	642	565	146	21	3	28	58	143	14	10	4	258	342	455	797	196	297	22	9	354	126	+20	+0	+1	-7	+14	2.9
2034	27	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	639	561	145	21	3	28	59	142	14	10	4	258	344	456	800	198	297	22	9	354	126	+20	+0	+1	-7	+14	2.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	633	556	144	21	3	28	59	142	13	9	4	259	344	459	803	200	296	22	9	353	125	+19	+0	+1	-7	+14	2.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	621	545	140	20	3	27	58	140	13	9	4	257	343	453	796	196	296	23	9	351	124	+18	+0	-0	-7	+13	2.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	610	535	136	19	3	26	57	140	13	8	3	254	340	447	787	193	294	23	9	348	122	+16	+0	-1	-7	+13	2.3
2038	31	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	595	522	132	19	3	25	56	138	12	7	3	253	339	444	783	192	292	23	9	344	119	+14	+0	-2	-6	+13	1.9
2039	32	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	577	506	125	17	2	24	54	136	12	7	3	247	334	431	765	184	289	24	9	339	115	+11	+0	-2	-6	+13	1.5
2040	33	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	547	480	116	15	2	22	51	132	11	6	2	242	328	419	747	177	285	24	9	332	111	+7	+0	-3	-6	+12	1.0
2041	34	MLB MLE	BOS	49%	499	440	103	13	2	19	46	123	10	5	2	234	321	402	723	168	279	25	9	323	105	+3	+0	-4	-5	+11	0.5
2042	35	MLB MLE	BOS	45%	443	391	89	11	2	16	40	113	9	4	2	228	314	389	702	161	273	26	9	313	98	-1	+0	-5	-5	+10	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	BOS	43%	236	209	51	8	1	7	20	58	5	4	2	244	325	392	717	148	298	25	8	299	98	-1	+0	+0	-3	+5	0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	320	283	69	11	1	10	27	77	7	5	2	244	325	396	721	152	299	24	8	310	105	+2	+0	+1	-3	+7	0.7
2029	22	MLB CTX	BOS	58%	355	313	80	12	2	13	31	82	8	6	2	256	338	431	769	176	300	23	9	321	113	+6	+0	+1	-4	+8	1.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	BOS	59%	372	328	85	13	2	15	33	84	8	6	2	259	341	448	790	189	301	23	9	330	119	+8	+0	+1	-4	+8	1.4
2031	24	MLB CTX	BOS	59%	372	328	85	13	2	15	33	83	8	6	2	259	341	448	790	189	302	22	9	335	123	+10	+0	+1	-4	+8	1.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	BOS	58%	374	329	87	13	2	16	34	83	8	6	2	264	348	462	810	198	302	22	9	338	125	+11	+0	+1	-4	+8	1.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	BOS	58%	375	330	87	13	2	16	34	83	8	6	2	264	347	461	807	197	302	22	9	340	126	+12	+0	+1	-4	+8	1.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	366	321	85	13	2	16	34	82	8	6	2	265	350	467	817	202	302	22	9	340	126	+11	+0	+1	-4	+8	1.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	359	315	82	12	2	15	33	80	8	5	2	260	346	454	799	194	301	22	9	339	125	+11	+0	+0	-4	+8	1.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	343	301	78	12	1	15	32	78	7	5	2	259	344	455	799	196	301	23	9	337	124	+10	+0	-0	-4	+7	1.4
2037	30	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	332	291	75	11	1	14	31	76	7	4	2	258	343	447	790	189	299	23	9	334	122	+9	+0	-0	-4	+7	1.2
2038	31	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	322	282	72	11	1	13	30	75	7	4	2	255	342	440	781	184	297	23	9	330	119	+7	+0	-1	-3	+7	1.0
2039	32	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	311	273	68	10	1	12	29	73	6	4	2	249	334	425	759	176	294	23	9	325	115	+6	+0	-1	-3	+7	0.8
2040	33	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	294	259	63	9	1	11	27	71	6	3	1	243	329	413	742	170	290	24	9	318	111	+4	+0	-2	-3	+6	0.6
2041	34	MLB CTX	BOS	49%	246	216	52	7	1	9	23	61	5	2	1	241	328	407	735	167	284	25	9	309	105	+1	+0	-2	-3	+5	0.2
2042	35	MLB CTX	BOS	45%	198	174	40	5	1	7	18	50	4	2	1	230	316	391	707	161	278	25	9	299	98	-0	+0	-2	-2	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5176	4553	1159	173	23	204	469	1196	110	74	29	255	339	437	776	183	300	23	9	327	115	+106	+3	-2	-55	+112	16.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	146	22	3	26	59	150	14	9	4	255	340	441	781	185	300	23	9	327	115	+13	+0	-0	-7	+14	2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	10064	8885	2221	323	48	389	891	2316	209	153	68	250	333	428	761	179	294	23	9	337	115	+187	+5	-6	-101	+205	29.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	143	21	3	25	58	150	13	10	4	249	332	427	759	178	294	23	9	337	115	+13	+0	-0	-7	+14	2.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Vernon Wellslast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 7,118 PA	10.7	7,118	269	108	270	319	461	+0	-19	32.9	31.8
/162	664	25	10	+0.0	-1.8	3.1	pk7: 31
#2Casey Blakelast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,966 PA	7.5	4,966	165	33	264	337	444	+3	+16	26.5	25.2
/162	664	22	4	+0.4	+2.2	3.5	pk7: 24
#3Nick Swisherlast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,308 PA	9.5	6,308	245	13	249	351	447	-62	-56	24.5	24.4
/162	664	26	1	-6.5	-5.9	2.6	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	7.8	5,208	210	73	252	332	437	-31	-4	21.8	17.5
/162	664	27	9	-4.0	-0.6	2.8	pk7: 13
#4Yasiel Puiglast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,376 PA	5.1	3,376	132	79	277	348	475	-36	-12	17.1	17.1
/162	664	26	16	-7.1	-2.3	3.4	pk7: 17
#5Yoenis Cespedeslast yr '18 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,456 PA	5.2	3,456	163	43	274	328	498	-37	-13	16.8	16.8
/162	664	31	8	-7.1	-2.4	3.2	pk7: 17
#6Brad Wilkersonlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	122	53	247	350	440	-35	-8	15.8	16.3
/162	664	22	9	-6.2	-1.4	2.8	pk7: 17

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Gonzales (OGILVIE)	19	52→54	55→61	43	56	229/311/359	130	291	8	7	25%	8%	92	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→55	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	84	+0.1	213/299/399	186	281	23	6	32%	9%	97	+1.1	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
✕Luis Torres 2023 · A	19	51	50→60	45→50	41	254/302/415	161	312	16	9	24%	5%	101	+1.4	215/280/315	100	345	8	5	37%	7%	70	-0.9	183/261/256	73	332	4	0	42%	8%	46	-0.6
★Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2018 · A	19	52→62	45→65	47→45	52	254/322/380	127	292	12	8	18%	8%	100	+1.3	282/342/448	166	313	18	4	16%	8%	123	+3.0	281/361/504	223	291	30	5	16%	10%	137	+4.6
●Justin Upton 2007 · A	19	43→53	44→65	46→55	44	214/271/328	114	277	11	10	26%	7%	69	-0.9	251/321/425	174	320	18	12	26%	9%	110	+2.1	281/360/489	209	336	24	19	23%	10%	133	+3.8
●Wil Myers 2011 · A	20	51→52	47→60	47→55	49	249/320/394	145	317	14	8	25%	9%	103	+1.5	241/304/396	155	312	17	8	27%	8%	97	+1.1	249/328/454	205	308	25	22	26%	10%	116	+2.4
●Julio Rodríguez 2021 · A	20	49→56	47→60	48→55	41	242/295/387	145	313	13	6	26%	5%	91	+0.7	282/340/472	190	354	23	23	26%	7%	128	+3.3	287/348/497	210	352	27	29	25%	7%	132	+3.3
●Jackson Chourio 2022 · A	18	44→54	42→60	48→55	46	218/280/321	104	273	10	10	24%	7%	71	-0.8	234/280/388	154	309	17	19	29%	6%	86	+0.3	274/325/460	186	323	22	21	22%	7%	115	+2.3
●José A. Martínez 2007 · A	19	45→55	41→55	45→50	47	220/288/317	96	278	9	7	23%	8%	73	-0.6	227/277/322	95	299	9	10	26%	6%	70	-0.9	298/365/466	167	347	21	4	19%	9%	133	+2.7
●Carlos Correa 2014 · A	19	52→60	42→60	43→55	45	249/303/362	113	318	8	7	24%	6%	88	+0.5	269/334/433	164	325	16	17	21%	8%	117	+2.6	285/361/493	208	326	25	14	20%	10%	135	+4.0
●Brett Lawrie 2010 · AA	20	46→56	45→55	47→55	43	227/277/352	125	282	13	12	24%	6%	76	-0.4	255/304/410	155	311	13	18	21%	6%	100	+1.3	266/325/431	165	300	17	16	17%	7%	110	+1.7
●Jason Heyward 2009 · A	19	53→60	44→60	52→50	45	259/305/382	123	313	10	9	21%	6%	93	+0.8	266/343/434	168	312	17	10	19%	10%	120	+2.8	262/354/456	194	309	22	14	22%	12%	126	+3.1
●Bo Bichette 2017 · A	19	50→60	47→60	53→55	40	246/288/387	141	326	13	8	28%	6%	88	+0.5	264/309/413	149	329	13	17	23%	6%	103	+1.5	296/337/473	177	345	22	13	20%	5%	126	+3.5
●Manny Machado 2012 · A	20	44→54	44→65	48→50	44	218/268/340	122	270	11	10	24%	6%	70	-0.8	248/293/387	139	291	13	8	19%	6%	91	+0.6	275/336/491	215	290	28	7	16%	8%	123	+3.5
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A	19	43→53	50→65	49→45	44	225/281/373	148	272	18	5	25%	7%	84	+0.1	251/299/413	162	303	21	7	24%	6%	99	+1.3	258/322/495	237	270	35	4	20%	8%	121	+2.8
✕Tyrone Taylor 2013 · A	19	49→52	43→60	51→55	43	235/284/358	123	294	8	12	23%	6%	80	-0.1	237/280/336	99	277	6	12	16%	5%	74	-0.6	240/298/452	211	277	25	12	23%	6%	107	+1.0
●Eloy Jiménez 2017 · A	20	51→55	46→65	48→40	37	248/280/389	141	330	13	7	28%	4%	86	+0.3	257/295/431	174	317	21	3	25%	5%	102	+1.5	272/314/485	213	313	29	0	23%	5%	120	+1.9
●Adam Jones 2006 · AA	20	51→56	46→60	48→50	43	251/307/391	140	322	13	10	25%	6%	97	+1.1	246/294/396	150	312	16	12	26%	5%	93	+0.8	275/314/462	188	306	25	11	19%	4%	114	+2.7
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2023 · A	19	47→57	45→50	49→45	43	231/296/352	121	282	12	9	22%	5%	84	+0.2	244/298/369	125	295	13	7	21%	5%	88	+0.5	253/307/381	128	303	13	6	20%	5%	92	+0.6
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→50	46→60	43→30	45	215/275/340	125	273	14	3	26%	7%	74	-0.6	209/254/346	137	287	16	2	32%	5%	68	-1.0	243/303/441	198	304	26	1	28%	7%	106	+1.5
●Austin Meadows 2015 · A	20	49→57	44→65	45→55	44	236/297/362	127	313	9	6	27%	7%	86	+0.3	243/288/364	121	302	9	15	22%	6%	83	+0.1	253/334/493	240	287	30	8	23%	10%	126	+2.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps