Justin Gonzales — OGILVIE

Justin GonzalesOF Greenville Drive

Age 19 R/R 6'5" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 3.7 · 2033

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .306 / .377

PA320

HR8

K%23

BB%8

MLB%11%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

51↘50

PWR

47↗52

SPD

45→45

FLD

45↗46

EYE

42↗47

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.8peak

2033

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.6	$23M	+$22M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+3.0	$27M	+$26M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.4	$32M	+$31M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+3.6	$34M	+$27M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$13M	+3.7	$36M	+$24M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$19M	+3.7	$37M	+$19M
Totals		$42M		$190M	+$148M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	192	180	44	7	4	4	11	30	1	8	3	.244	.292	.394	.686	.150	.274	16	6	.294	83	-4	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2025	18	A	2 teams	406	370	91	20	1	4	24	91	9	12	10	.246	.308	.338	.646	.092	.313	22	6	.287	78	-10	-2	+0	-2	+12	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	19	A+	Greenville Drive	67	63	15	3	0	2	3	15	1	0	1	.238	.284	.381	.665	.143	.283	22	4	.274	68	-2	-0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
ROS	19	MLB	BOS	253	229	55	11	1	7	18	57	4	4	2	.240	.307	.389	.695	.148	.288	23	7	.306	92	-2	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.3
TOT	19	MLB	BOS	320	292	70	14	1	9	21	72	5	4	3	.240	.302	.387	.689	.147	.288	22	7	.299	87	-5	-0	-0	-2	+9	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	20	MLB 32%	BOS	478	430	107	21	2	13	38	99	7	9	4	.249	.320	.398	.718	.149	.293	21	8	.322	104	+2	+0	-0	-3	+14	1.3
2028	21	MLB 57%	BOS	549	489	124	24	2	17	46	111	9	11	5	.254	.329	.415	.744	.162	.293	20	8	.331	111	+7	+0	-0	-3	+16	1.9
2029	22	MLB 86%	BOS	599	532	137	26	3	20	53	118	9	12	5	.258	.335	.430	.765	.173	.294	20	9	.339	117	+12	+0	-0	-4	+17	2.6
2030	23	MLB	BOS	634	561	146	28	3	22	58	122	10	12	5	.260	.340	.439	.779	.178	.294	19	9	.344	122	+15	+0	-0	-4	+18	3.0
2031	24	MLB	BOS	657	580	152	29	3	23	62	125	10	12	5	.262	.344	.441	.785	.179	.295	19	9	.348	125	+18	+0	-1	-4	+19	3.4
2032	25	MLB	BOS	669	588	155	29	3	24	65	126	11	12	4	.264	.348	.446	.793	.182	.295	19	10	.351	127	+20	+1	-1	-4	+19	3.6
2033	26	MLB	BOS	673	591	157	30	3	25	66	126	11	11	4	.266	.350	.453	.804	.188	.296	19	10	.353	128	+22	+1	-1	-4	+19	3.7
2034	27	MLB	BOS	671	588	154	29	3	24	67	127	11	11	4	.262	.348	.444	.792	.182	.296	19	10	.353	128	+22	+1	-1	-4	+19	3.7
2035	28	MLB	BOS	665	582	153	29	3	24	67	127	11	10	4	.263	.350	.447	.797	.184	.295	19	10	.352	128	+21	+0	-1	-4	+19	3.5
2036	29	MLB	BOS	655	574	149	28	3	23	66	127	10	9	3	.260	.346	.439	.785	.179	.295	19	10	.350	126	+19	+1	-2	-4	+19	3.3
2037	30	MLB	BOS	644	564	146	28	2	23	65	127	10	9	3	.259	.346	.438	.784	.179	.293	20	10	.347	124	+17	+1	-3	-4	+18	3.0
2038	31	MLB	BOS	629	551	141	27	2	22	63	126	10	7	2	.256	.343	.432	.775	.176	.292	20	10	.343	121	+15	+1	-3	-4	+18	2.7
2039	32	MLB	BOS	610	535	134	25	2	20	61	126	9	6	2	.250	.337	.417	.754	.166	.291	21	10	.338	117	+12	+0	-4	-4	+17	2.2
2040	33	MLB	BOS	581	509	126	23	2	19	58	124	9	6	2	.248	.335	.413	.748	.165	.289	21	10	.333	113	+8	+0	-5	-3	+16	1.7
2041	34	MLB	BOS	532	466	113	21	2	16	53	118	8	5	1	.242	.330	.399	.729	.157	.287	22	10	.326	108	+5	+1	-5	-3	+15	1.2
2042	35	MLB	BOS	475	418	99	18	2	14	47	110	7	5	1	.237	.324	.390	.714	.153	.285	23	10	.318	101	+1	+1	-6	-3	+13	0.6
2043	36	MLB	BOS	414	365	83	15	1	11	40	100	6	5	1	.227	.314	.364	.678	.137	.282	24	10	.308	94	-3	+1	-7	-2	+12	0.1
2044	37	MLB	BOS	348	307	68	12	1	9	33	88	5	4	0	.221	.307	.355	.662	.134	.278	25	9	.298	86	-5	+1	-7	-2	+10	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			11334	10009	2534	480	48	364	1061	2305	177	180	70	.253	.335	.420	.755	.167	.293	20	9	.336	115	+192	+8	-47	-68	+321	41.4
/ 162G	—			650	574	146	28	3	21	61	132	10	10	4	.254	.336	.423	.760	.169	.295	20	9	.336	115	+11	+0	-3	-4	+18	2.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	192	172	55	11	4	5	19	20	1	8	3	.320	.391	.517	.908	.198	.340	10	10	.399	164	+14	+0	—	—	+5	2.0
2025	18	A+	Greenville Drive	49	43	8	0	0	0	4	11	1	1	3	.186	.271	.186	.457	.000	.242	22	8	.220	26	-4	-1	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	18	A	Salem Red Sox	357	312	93	23	2	4	35	52	8	11	7	.298	.383	.423	.806	.125	.345	15	10	.362	135	+14	-1	—	—	+10	2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Gonzales (OGILVIE)	19	51→50	47→52	45	47	.237/.306/.377	.140	.289	8	6	23%	8%	94	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Torres 2023 · A	19	51	51→60	46→50	41	.257/.304/.425	.168	.315	17	9	24%	5%	105	+2.1	.220/.283/.330	.110	.348	9	5	36%	7%	71	-0.3	.183/.261/.257	.074	.337	5	0	43%	8%	40	-0.6
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A	19	44→52	49→65	49→45	45	.226/.283/.369	.143	.276	17	6	25%	7%	81	+0.4	.250/.300/.421	.171	.300	23	7	24%	6%	102	+1.8	.258/.305/.479	.221	.284	33	5	22%	6%	116	+2.6
●Wil Myers 2011 · A	20	51→54	47→60	47→55	50	.250/.322/.396	.145	.314	14	8	24%	9%	104	+2.0	.240/.305/.397	.157	.311	18	8	27%	8%	97	+1.5	.241/.320/.442	.200	.295	25	22	26%	10%	109	+2.2
●Julio Rodríguez 2021 · A	20	48→56	47→60	50→55	41	.239/.291/.385	.146	.305	14	6	26%	5%	89	+0.9	.279/.337/.469	.190	.351	23	22	26%	7%	130	+3.8	.288/.348/.497	.209	.353	27	29	25%	7%	136	+3.8
●Adam Jones 2006 · AA	20	51→57	47→60	48→50	43	.248/.304/.390	.143	.319	14	10	26%	6%	95	+1.4	.244/.293/.395	.151	.310	16	12	26%	5%	92	+1.2	.281/.319/.480	.199	.312	26	11	19%	4%	122	+3.8
●Brett Lawrie 2010 · AA	20	46→56	45→55	47→55	44	.228/.280/.353	.125	.279	13	12	23%	6%	75	-0.0	.252/.301/.407	.155	.311	13	18	22%	6%	98	+1.6	.264/.316/.431	.166	.317	14	20	20%	6%	106	+2.0
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2023 · A	19	46→56	44→50	49→45	43	.229/.294/.349	.120	.281	12	9	22%	5%	81	+0.4	.243/.297/.369	.126	.293	13	7	21%	5%	87	+0.8	.254/.307/.383	.129	.303	13	6	20%	5%	92	+0.9
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	41→51	47→60	46→45	46	.210/.298/.347	.138	.263	15	10	26%	8%	83	+0.6	.215/.301/.412	.197	.284	25	6	32%	9%	101	+1.8	.261/.318/.433	.172	.316	21	10	23%	6%	110	+1.8
★Justin Upton 2007 · A	19	44→54	44→65	46→55	45	.218/.276/.333	.115	.274	11	10	25%	7%	69	-0.4	.249/.319/.424	.175	.316	18	12	26%	9%	110	+2.4	.279/.359/.480	.201	.337	22	19	23%	10%	134	+4.2
●Eloy Jiménez 2017 · A	20	50→56	46→65	48→40	37	.245/.277/.382	.138	.317	12	7	27%	4%	82	+0.5	.258/.295/.433	.175	.319	21	3	25%	5%	103	+1.9	.273/.314/.492	.219	.314	30	0	23%	5%	125	+2.3
✕Curtis Mead 2022 · A	21	51→55	48→55	47→50	44	.251/.299/.400	.149	.299	14	9	21%	5%	95	+1.4	.252/.313/.412	.160	.304	16	9	22%	7%	105	+2.1	.247/.312/.401	.154	.294	15	10	21%	6%	99	+1.1
★Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2018 · A	19	51→61	45→65	47→45	53	.251/.321/.378	.127	.288	12	8	17%	9%	99	+1.7	.286/.345/.456	.170	.317	19	5	16%	8%	129	+3.7	.288/.367/.508	.221	.301	30	5	16%	10%	146	+5.7
✕Jesus Morelli 2009 · A	19	49	42→45	48→50	49	.233/.310/.344	.110	.300	9	12	24%	8%	85	+0.7	.223/.286/.295	.072	.303	4	10	26%	6%	63	-0.9	.219/.279/.260	.041	.287	0	14	22%	6%	47	-0.5
●Isaac Paredes 2019 · AA	20	44→51	44→60	48→40	46	.220/.282/.339	.120	.256	11	3	19%	6%	73	-0.1	.233/.300/.344	.111	.270	11	4	18%	8%	82	+0.5	.245/.349/.440	.195	.261	25	1	17%	11%	126	+3.2
★Xander Bogaerts 2012 · A	19	43→53	49→60	42→55	41	.222/.273/.365	.143	.281	17	4	27%	6%	76	+0.0	.244/.297/.396	.152	.312	17	5	26%	6%	94	+1.3	.293/.370/.507	.214	.325	27	7	18%	10%	148	+4.3
●Bo Bichette 2017 · A	19	50→60	46→60	53→55	40	.243/.287/.379	.136	.324	13	8	28%	6%	85	+0.7	.267/.312/.417	.150	.332	13	17	23%	6%	105	+2.1	.305/.346/.482	.177	.358	22	13	20%	5%	135	+4.6
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→50	45→60	43→30	45	.215/.274/.337	.122	.275	14	3	27%	7%	69	-0.4	.206/.251/.346	.140	.279	17	2	32%	5%	62	-0.9	.246/.306/.451	.204	.321	28	0	31%	7%	109	+2.0
✕Aderlin Rodríguez 2011 · A	19	44→49	48→60	46→30	40	.226/.269/.368	.142	.281	16	5	26%	5%	75	-0.0	.206/.240/.352	.146	.247	19	3	25%	4%	58	-1.2	.243/.288/.435	.192	.292	26	1	26%	4%	98	+1.2
✕Jon Singleton 2011 · A	19	48→49	49→55	44→45	49	.241/.305/.394	.152	.283	17	7	21%	8%	97	+1.5	.230/.301/.367	.137	.318	15	5	30%	9%	88	+0.9	.205/.306/.376	.171	.261	23	1	29%	13%	91	+0.9
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	47→53	49→55	47→50	43	.236/.291/.385	.149	.313	18	7	30%	7%	89	+0.9	.245/.301/.404	.159	.345	17	4	32%	7%	98	+1.6	.246/.310/.419	.172	.343	19	2	32%	8%	103	+1.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)