Justin Gonzales
RF Greenville Drive| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL Red Sox R… | 192 | .320/.391/.517 | 5 | 8 | 57 | — | .208/.266/.326 |
| 2025 | 18 | A+/A2 orgs | 406 | .285/.370/.394 | 4 | 12 | 88 | — | .259/.325/.360 |
| 2026 | 19 | AA/A+BOS | 507 | .266/.387/.449 | 19 | 12 | 97 | — | .238/.327/.400 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBBOS | 9 | .234/.313/.377 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ45% MLB | 21 | MLBBOS | 215 | .241/.322/.400 | 7 | 4 | 101 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ62% MLB | 22 | MLBBOS | 327 | .248/.328/.419 | 12 | 6 | 108 | 0.7 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 192 | 172 | 55 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 320 | 391 | 517 | 908 | 198 | 340 | 10 | 10 | 399 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 49 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 186 | 271 | 186 | 457 | 242 | 22 | 8 | 220 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 18 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 357 | 312 | 93 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 52 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 298 | 383 | 423 | 806 | 125 | 345 | 15 | 10 | 362 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 85 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 239 | 357 | 380 | 737 | 141 | 312 | 26 | 14 | 333 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 422 | 350 | 95 | 12 | 2 | 17 | 56 | 79 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 271 | 393 | 463 | 856 | 191 | 305 | 19 | 13 | 382 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 192 | 178 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 208 | 266 | 326 | 591 | 118 | 225 | 13 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 49 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 156 | 208 | 156 | 364 | 227 | 31 | 4 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 357 | 322 | 88 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 72 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 273 | 341 | 388 | 729 | 115 | 334 | 20 | 7 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 85 | 74 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 243 | 333 | 378 | 712 | 135 | 326 | 32 | 11 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 422 | 371 | 88 | 10 | 2 | 16 | 35 | 103 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 237 | 326 | 404 | 731 | 167 | 278 | 24 | 8 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 192 | 178 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 208 | 266 | 326 | 591 | 118 | 227 | 13 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 192 | 172 | 55 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 320 | 391 | 517 | 908 | 198 | 340 | 10 | 10 | 399 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 367 | 95 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 88 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 259 | 325 | 360 | 685 | 101 | 327 | 22 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 406 | 355 | 101 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 39 | 63 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 285 | 370 | 394 | 764 | 110 | 333 | 16 | 10 | 345 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 445 | 105 | 12 | 3 | 17 | 44 | 130 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 236 | 325 | 391 | 716 | 155 | 292 | 26 | 9 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 507 | 421 | 112 | 14 | 3 | 19 | 68 | 101 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 266 | 387 | 449 | 836 | 183 | 306 | 20 | 13 | 374 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 192 | 176 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 210 | 266 | 330 | 595 | 119 | 225 | 13 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 367 | 95 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 88 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 259 | 325 | 360 | 685 | 101 | 321 | 22 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 443 | 105 | 12 | 3 | 17 | 44 | 130 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 237 | 325 | 393 | 718 | 156 | 286 | 26 | 9 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 192 | 176 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 210 | 266 | 330 | 595 | 119 | 225 | 13 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 367 | 95 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 88 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 259 | 325 | 360 | 685 | 101 | 321 | 22 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 443 | 105 | 12 | 3 | 17 | 44 | 130 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 237 | 325 | 393 | 718 | 156 | 286 | 26 | 9 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | BOS | 4% | 617 | 549 | 126 | 19 | 3 | 18 | 50 | 156 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 229 | 309 | 371 | 679 | 142 | 284 | 25 | 8 | 305 | 93 | -5 | +0 | -0 | -7 | +13 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB CTX | BOS | 4% | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 313 | 377 | 690 | 142 | 293 | 22 | 11 | 310 | 93 | -0 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | BOS | 45% | 477 | 424 | 100 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 117 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 236 | 317 | 394 | 711 | 158 | 286 | 25 | 8 | 318 | 101 | +1 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | BOS | 62% | 530 | 469 | 114 | 17 | 3 | 19 | 45 | 126 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 242 | 323 | 414 | 737 | 171 | 287 | 24 | 8 | 328 | 108 | +5 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +11 | 1.2 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | BOS | 68% | 560 | 496 | 122 | 18 | 3 | 22 | 48 | 130 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 246 | 327 | 425 | 753 | 179 | 288 | 23 | 9 | 334 | 112 | +8 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +12 | 1.5 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | BOS | 70% | 578 | 511 | 127 | 19 | 3 | 23 | 50 | 132 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 248 | 330 | 432 | 762 | 183 | 289 | 23 | 9 | 337 | 114 | +10 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | BOS | 70% | 590 | 522 | 131 | 20 | 3 | 24 | 52 | 135 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 249 | 331 | 434 | 765 | 185 | 289 | 23 | 9 | 338 | 115 | +11 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 71% | 599 | 529 | 132 | 20 | 3 | 24 | 53 | 137 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 249 | 331 | 434 | 765 | 185 | 289 | 23 | 9 | 339 | 115 | +11 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 69% | 596 | 527 | 131 | 20 | 3 | 24 | 53 | 137 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 248 | 330 | 431 | 761 | 183 | 288 | 23 | 9 | 337 | 114 | +10 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 69% | 585 | 517 | 127 | 19 | 3 | 23 | 52 | 136 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 246 | 328 | 426 | 754 | 180 | 287 | 23 | 9 | 334 | 112 | +9 | +0 | -0 | -6 | +13 | 1.5 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 67% | 568 | 502 | 123 | 18 | 3 | 22 | 50 | 133 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 244 | 325 | 420 | 745 | 176 | 286 | 23 | 9 | 331 | 110 | +7 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +12 | 1.2 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | BOS | 66% | 552 | 489 | 118 | 18 | 2 | 21 | 48 | 131 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 240 | 321 | 412 | 733 | 171 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 326 | 107 | +4 | -0 | -2 | -6 | +12 | 0.9 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | BOS | 65% | 534 | 474 | 111 | 16 | 2 | 19 | 46 | 129 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 236 | 316 | 401 | 718 | 165 | 281 | 24 | 9 | 320 | 103 | +2 | -2 | -2 | -6 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB MLE | BOS | 65% | 511 | 454 | 105 | 15 | 2 | 18 | 43 | 126 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 231 | 310 | 388 | 698 | 158 | 277 | 25 | 8 | 312 | 97 | -2 | -3 | -3 | -5 | +11 | -0.2 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB MLE | BOS | 65% | 476 | 425 | 96 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 120 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 224 | 302 | 373 | 675 | 149 | 272 | 25 | 8 | 303 | 91 | -5 | -3 | -4 | -5 | +10 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | BOS | 45% | 215 | 190 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 53 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 241 | 322 | 400 | 721 | 158 | 294 | 25 | 8 | 322 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | BOS | 62% | 327 | 289 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 77 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 248 | 328 | 419 | 747 | 172 | 295 | 24 | 9 | 332 | 108 | +3 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | BOS | 68% | 383 | 339 | 85 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 33 | 89 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 251 | 332 | 431 | 763 | 180 | 297 | 23 | 9 | 338 | 112 | +6 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | BOS | 70% | 403 | 357 | 91 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 35 | 92 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 254 | 335 | 437 | 772 | 184 | 298 | 23 | 9 | 342 | 114 | +7 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +9 | 1.2 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | BOS | 70% | 415 | 367 | 94 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 37 | 95 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 255 | 335 | 440 | 775 | 185 | 298 | 23 | 9 | 343 | 115 | +7 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 71% | 423 | 375 | 95 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 37 | 96 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 255 | 336 | 440 | 775 | 185 | 298 | 23 | 9 | 343 | 115 | +8 | +0 | +0 | -5 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 69% | 413 | 365 | 92 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 37 | 95 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 253 | 335 | 437 | 772 | 184 | 297 | 23 | 9 | 342 | 114 | +7 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 69% | 402 | 355 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 36 | 93 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 252 | 332 | 432 | 765 | 181 | 296 | 23 | 9 | 339 | 112 | +6 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +9 | 1.1 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 67% | 380 | 337 | 84 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 33 | 89 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 249 | 330 | 426 | 755 | 177 | 295 | 23 | 9 | 335 | 110 | +4 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | BOS | 66% | 363 | 321 | 79 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 86 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 246 | 326 | 417 | 743 | 172 | 293 | 24 | 9 | 330 | 107 | +3 | -0 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.6 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | BOS | 65% | 348 | 309 | 74 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 84 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 241 | 321 | 407 | 728 | 166 | 289 | 24 | 9 | 324 | 103 | +1 | -1 | -2 | -4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB CTX | BOS | 65% | 331 | 294 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 82 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 236 | 314 | 394 | 709 | 158 | 285 | 25 | 8 | 316 | 97 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -4 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB CTX | BOS | 65% | 307 | 273 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 77 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 229 | 307 | 378 | 685 | 149 | 280 | 25 | 8 | 307 | 91 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -3 | +7 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 4710 | 4171 | 1036 | 171 | 21 | 172 | 410 | 1108 | 91 | 62 | 39 | 248 | 329 | 423 | 752 | 175 | 296 | 24 | 9 | 333 | 105 | +48 | -3 | -6 | -50 | +102 | 9.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 576 | 144 | 24 | 3 | 24 | 57 | 153 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 250 | 332 | 427 | 759 | 177 | 299 | 24 | 9 | 333 | 105 | +7 | -0 | -1 | -7 | +14 | 1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 8471 | 7516 | 1816 | 273 | 43 | 301 | 721 | 1985 | 165 | 129 | 79 | 242 | 322 | 410 | 731 | 168 | 287 | 23 | 9 | 323 | 105 | +68 | -5 | -10 | -79 | +160 | 13.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 139 | 21 | 3 | 23 | 55 | 152 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 241 | 321 | 407 | 728 | 166 | 286 | 23 | 8 | 323 | 105 | +6 | -0 | -1 | -7 | +14 | 1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Greenville Drive · 422 PAwOBA .374 → .314 (−60)K% 18.7% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.72% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 24.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 8.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.32% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 2.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.028 | ×1.042 | 22.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.028 | ×1.042 | 3.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.028 | ×1.042 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 5.75% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .374 → .314; ISO .191 → .173; BABIP .305 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 85 PAwOBA .329 → .299 (−30)K% 25.9% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.88% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 10.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 26.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 3.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 2.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 3.34% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .329 → .299; ISO .141 → .124; BABIP .312 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ASalem Red Sox · 357 PAwOBA .355 → .315 (−40)K% 14.6% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.57% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.24% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.62% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 24.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.85% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 8.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.891 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.44% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .355 → .315; ISO .125 → .114; BABIP .345 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Greenville Drive · 49 PAwOBA .219 → .177 (−42)K% 22.4% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.45% | ÷0.936 | ×1.310 | — | — | 31.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷1.050 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.050 | 4.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.050 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 23.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.099 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.117 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 95, 2B 120, 3B 102, K 87, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .219 → .177; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .242 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 192 PAwOBA .389 → .252 (−136)K% 10.4% → 13.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.42% | ÷0.965 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.90% | ÷1.044 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.52% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.033 | ×1.008 | 16.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.24% | ÷1.124 | ×0.600 | ×1.033 | ×1.008 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.033 | ×1.008 | 1.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.29% | ÷0.953 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.63% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 80, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .389 → .252; ISO .198 → .112; BABIP .340 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).