Justin Gonzales — OGILVIE

Justin GonzalesOF Greenville Drive

Age 19 R/R 6'5" / 210 lbs A+ H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION325 act + 216 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .303 / .351

PA216

HR5

K%23

BB%7

BABIP277

ISO124

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED43

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$12M	+$11M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+2.6	$14M	+$11M
2032	Arb-2	$9M	+2.7	$14M	+$9M
2033	Arb-3	$13M	+2.8	$13M	+$7M
Totals		$30M		$76M	+$60M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	180	43	6	4	4	11	31	1	8	3	239	286	383	670	144	269	16	6	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	172	55	11	4	5	19	20	1	8	3	320	391	517	908	198	340	10	10	399	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A	2 teams	—	406	370	90	21	1	4	24	95	9	12	10	243	305	338	643	95	314	23	6	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A	2 teams	—	406	355	101	23	2	4	39	63	9	12	10	285	370	394	764	110	333	16	10	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A+	BOS	—	325	288	64	7	2	10	28	79	9	6	1	222	311	365	675	142	271	24	9	291	81	-7	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.1
YTD	19	A+	BOS	—	325	274	71	8	2	12	42	59	9	6	1	259	375	434	810	175	291	18	13	365	138	+14	+1	+0	-2	+9	2.2
ROS	19	A+	BOS	4%	216	193	44	7	1	5	16	49	5	4	1	227	303	351	654	124	280	23	7	298	86	-3	+0	-0	-1	+6	0.2
ROS	19	MLB	BOS	4%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		285	20	10	286	77	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	19	A+	BOS	—	335	297	65	7	2	10	29	81	9	6	1	219	307	357	664	138	267	24	9	291	81	-7	+1	-0	-2	+9	0.1
TOT	19	A+	BOS	—	541	481	108	14	3	15	44	128	14	10	2	224	308	359	667	135	274	24	8	294	83	-10	+1	-0	-3	+15	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	BOS	36%	570	510	120	19	3	15	44	126	11	8	3	235	310	373	682	137	283	22	8	306	92	-5	+0	-1	-3	+16	0.8
2028	21	MLB	BOS	49%	585	523	126	20	3	17	46	127	11	9	4	241	316	388	704	147	284	22	8	317	101	+0	+0	-1	-4	+17	1.3
2029	22	MLB	BOS	55%	612	545	134	21	3	20	50	129	12	9	4	246	323	406	728	160	285	21	8	326	108	+5	+0	-1	-4	+17	1.9
2030	23	MLB	BOS	57%	627	558	139	22	3	22	52	130	12	9	4	249	326	418	744	168	286	21	8	332	113	+9	+0	-1	-4	+18	2.3
2031	24	MLB	BOS	57%	634	564	142	23	3	23	53	130	12	10	4	252	329	426	755	174	287	21	8	336	116	+11	+0	-1	-4	+18	2.6
2032	25	MLB	BOS	57%	639	568	144	23	3	24	54	130	12	10	4	254	331	431	763	178	287	20	8	339	117	+12	+0	-1	-4	+18	2.7
2033	26	MLB	BOS	57%	642	570	144	23	3	24	55	130	12	10	4	253	331	430	761	177	287	20	9	340	118	+13	+0	-1	-4	+18	2.8
2034	27	MLB	BOS	55%	639	567	144	23	3	24	55	130	12	10	4	254	333	432	765	178	287	20	9	340	118	+13	+0	-1	-4	+18	2.8
2035	28	MLB	BOS	55%	633	561	142	22	3	24	55	130	12	9	4	253	333	431	764	178	286	21	9	339	117	+12	+0	-1	-4	+18	2.6
2036	29	MLB	BOS	53%	621	550	138	22	3	23	54	129	12	9	4	251	331	427	758	176	285	21	9	337	116	+11	+0	-2	-4	+18	2.4
2037	30	MLB	BOS	53%	610	540	135	21	3	22	53	128	12	8	3	250	331	422	753	172	284	21	9	334	114	+9	+0	-3	-4	+17	2.1
2038	31	MLB	BOS	52%	595	527	130	20	3	21	52	126	11	8	3	247	327	416	743	169	282	21	9	330	110	+7	+0	-3	-4	+17	1.8
2039	32	MLB	BOS	52%	577	511	123	19	2	20	50	125	11	7	3	241	322	403	725	162	279	22	9	324	106	+4	+0	-4	-3	+16	1.3
2040	33	MLB	BOS	52%	547	484	114	17	2	18	48	121	10	6	2	236	317	390	708	155	275	22	9	317	101	+1	+0	-5	-3	+15	0.9
2041	34	MLB	BOS	47%	499	444	101	14	2	16	43	114	9	5	2	227	308	376	685	149	269	23	9	308	94	-3	+0	-5	-3	+14	0.3
2042	35	MLB	BOS	43%	443	394	86	11	2	13	38	104	8	4	2	218	300	355	655	137	263	23	9	298	86	-7	+0	-6	-3	+13	-0.3
2043	36	MLB	BOS	34%	382	340	73	9	2	11	32	93	7	3	1	215	296	350	646	135	257	24	8	288	78	-9	+0	-7	-2	+11	-0.7
2027	20	MLB	BOS	36%	206	184	44	7	1	5	16	46	4	3	1	239	314	370	683	130	288	22	8	296	85	-4	+0	-0	-1	+6	0.1
2028	21	MLB	BOS	49%	288	257	63	10	1	9	23	62	6	4	2	245	322	397	719	152	290	22	8	307	93	-2	+0	-0	-2	+8	0.4
2029	22	MLB	BOS	55%	334	298	75	12	2	11	27	70	6	5	2	252	326	416	742	164	291	21	8	317	100	+0	+0	-0	-2	+9	0.8
2030	23	MLB	BOS	57%	356	317	81	13	2	13	29	74	7	5	2	256	331	432	764	177	292	21	8	323	105	+2	+0	-0	-2	+10	1.0
2031	24	MLB	BOS	57%	359	319	83	14	2	13	30	73	7	5	2	260	337	439	776	179	293	20	8	327	108	+3	+0	-0	-2	+10	1.1
2032	25	MLB	BOS	57%	361	321	84	14	2	14	30	73	7	5	2	262	338	449	787	187	293	20	8	329	110	+4	+0	-0	-2	+10	1.2
2033	26	MLB	BOS	57%	363	322	84	14	2	14	31	74	7	6	2	261	339	447	786	186	293	20	9	330	111	+4	+0	-0	-2	+10	1.3
2034	27	MLB	BOS	55%	354	313	81	13	2	13	31	72	7	5	2	259	339	438	777	179	293	20	9	330	111	+4	+0	-0	-2	+10	1.2
2035	28	MLB	BOS	55%	347	307	80	13	2	13	30	71	7	5	2	261	340	443	783	182	292	20	9	329	110	+4	+0	-1	-2	+10	1.1
2036	29	MLB	BOS	53%	332	294	74	12	1	12	29	69	6	5	2	252	331	422	753	170	292	21	9	327	108	+3	+0	-1	-2	+9	1.0
2037	30	MLB	BOS	53%	321	284	72	12	1	12	28	67	6	4	2	254	333	430	763	176	290	21	9	324	106	+2	+0	-1	-2	+9	0.8
2038	31	MLB	BOS	52%	310	274	68	11	1	11	27	66	6	4	2	248	329	416	745	168	288	21	9	320	103	+1	+0	-2	-2	+9	0.6
2039	32	MLB	BOS	52%	299	265	64	10	1	10	26	65	6	4	1	242	323	400	723	158	285	22	9	315	99	-0	+0	-2	-2	+8	0.5
2040	33	MLB	BOS	52%	283	251	60	9	1	9	25	63	5	3	1	239	320	390	711	151	280	22	9	308	94	-2	+0	-2	-2	+8	0.2
2041	34	MLB	BOS	47%	236	210	49	7	1	8	20	54	4	2	1	233	312	390	702	157	275	23	8	299	87	-3	+0	-3	-1	+7	-0.1
2042	35	MLB	BOS	43%	189	168	38	5	1	6	16	45	3	2	1	226	305	375	680	149	268	24	8	289	79	-4	+0	-3	-1	+5	-0.3
2043	36	MLB	BOS	34%	129	115	24	3	0	4	11	31	2	1	0	209	289	339	628	130	262	24	9	278	71	-4	+0	-2	-1	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5077	4508	1125	179	23	177	430	1077	96	68	27	250	328	417	745	168	289	21	8	318	101	+8	+3	-20	-30	+144	10.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	145	23	3	23	55	138	12	9	3	251	329	421	750	170	291	21	8	318	101	+1	+1	-3	-4	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	10669	9499	2312	363	52	350	885	2277	201	158	69	243	321	403	724	160	283	21	8	323	106	+67	+4	-42	-64	+302	27.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	140	22	3	21	54	139	12	10	4	242	319	399	718	157	282	21	8	323	106	+4	+0	-3	-4	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	192	172	55	11	4	5	19	20	1	8	3	320	391	517	908	198	340	10	10	399	164	+14	+0	—	—	+5	2.0
2025	18	A+	Greenville Drive	—	49	43	8	0	0	0	4	11	1	1	3	186	271	186	457		242	22	8	220	26	-4	-1	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	18	A	Salem Red Sox	—	357	312	93	23	2	4	35	52	8	11	7	298	383	423	806	125	345	15	10	362	135	+14	-1	—	—	+10	2.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1José Cruz Jr.last yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,179 PA	9	4,179	153	81	247	336	445	-35	-7	17.4	17.2
	/162	664	24	13	247	336	445	-5.6	-1.1	2.8	pk7: 17
#2Brad Wilkersonlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	8	3,753	122	53	247	350	440	-35	-8	15.8	16.2
	/162	664	22	9	247	350	440	-6.2	-1.4	2.8	pk7: 17
#3Jacque Joneslast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,646 PA	9	4,646	156	79	276	326	448	-35	-26	15.7	15.9
	/162	664	22	11	276	326	448	-5.0	-3.8	2.3	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	5,082	177	69	247	322	414	-30	-16	15.9	13.1
	/162	664	23	9	247	322	414	-4.0	-2.1	2.1	pk7: 10
#4Aaron Boonelast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,540 PA	8	3,540	110	83	260	326	427	-12	-30	11.3	11.4
	/162	664	21	16	260	326	427	-2.2	-5.6	2.1	pk7: 11
#5Raul Mondesilast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,604 PA	6	2,604	108	89	251	326	456	-20	-6	10.8	10.8
	/162	664	28	23	251	326	456	-5.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 11
#6Travis Leelast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,147 PA	6	3,147	84	34	257	336	412	-36	-3	9.0	9.0
#6Travis Leelast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,147 PA	/162	664	18	7	257	336	412	-7.6	-0.7	1.9	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Gonzales (OGILVIE)	19	47→50	52→55	43	47	224/308/359	135	274	15	10	24%	8%	83	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	82	+0.5	219/304/418	199	291	25	6	32%	9%	104	+2.0	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Jackson Chourio 2022 · A	18	44→54	42→60	48→55	45	217/278/318	101	276	10	10	25%	7%	66	-0.6	233/279/390	157	315	18	19	31%	6%	85	+0.7	273/321/471	198	320	23	21	22%	6%	120	+2.5
●Tyrone Taylor 2013 · A	19	49→52	43→65	51→55	43	235/284/358	123	294	8	12	23%	6%	78	+0.2	236/278/335	99	278	6	12	17%	4%	69	-0.4	248/305/477	229	283	28	12	23%	6%	117	+1.6
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2023 · A	19	46→56	45→50	49→45	43	227/292/347	120	278	12	9	23%	5%	80	+0.4	244/297/370	126	294	14	7	21%	5%	88	+0.9	253/307/382	129	303	14	6	21%	5%	91	+0.9
●Esteury Ruiz 2017 · A	18	46→56	43→50	47→70	43	225/273/343	119	277	9	12	22%	5%	69	-0.4	209/256/323	114	313	8	25	34%	5%	56	-1.3	268/342/410	142	331	14	74	22%	7%	114	+1.8
●Brett Lawrie 2010 · AA	20	45→55	45→55	47→55	43	227/277/351	125	282	13	12	24%	6%	73	-0.1	254/304/410	156	312	12	18	22%	6%	100	+1.7	265/317/429	165	317	13	20	20%	6%	106	+2.0
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→49	46→60	43→30	45	215/275/340	125	273	14	3	26%	7%	70	-0.3	206/250/349	143	284	18	2	33%	5%	62	-0.9	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
●José A. Martínez 2007 · A	19	45→55	41→50	45→50	47	220/288/317	96	278	9	7	23%	8%	69	-0.4	227/277/322	95	299	9	10	26%	6%	66	-0.6	296/363/456	160	346	19	4	19%	9%	133	+2.9
●Isaac Paredes 2018 · A	19	42→49	45→60	47→40	45	207/267/329	122	237	12	4	18%	6%	65	-0.7	225/286/332	107	266	10	4	19%	6%	72	-0.2	242/348/439	196	257	26	1	17%	11%	124	+3.1
✕Jesus Morelli 2009 · A	19	49	42→45	48→50	49	234/311/346	112	300	9	12	24%	8%	87	+0.8	220/282/289	69	304	4	10	27%	6%	59	-1.1	219/279/260	41	287	0	14	22%	6%	47	-0.5
●Renato Núñez 2013 · A	19	44→51	43→60	49→30	39	216/264/333	117	285	9	5	27%	4%	63	-0.8	205/246/338	133	272	16	3	30%	4%	57	-1.2	235/306/451	216	271	31	1	26%	7%	111	+1.7
★Justin Upton 2007 · A	19	43→53	44→65	46→55	44	214/271/328	114	277	11	10	26%	7%	65	-0.7	251/322/429	178	320	19	12	26%	9%	112	+2.6	264/344/505	242	328	32	10	29%	10%	138	+4.6
●Miguel Andujar 2015 · A	20	47→57	43→55	48→45	40	232/266/341	108	285	11	5	23%	4%	66	-0.6	234/272/359	125	280	13	6	21%	4%	73	-0.1	274/311/443	169	306	18	3	17%	4%	109	+2.2
●Jake Smolinski 2009 · A	20	47→50	41→55	45	44	225/280/329	103	288	8	7	24%	6%	69	-0.4	230/288/345	115	277	9	6	20%	7%	76	+0.1	243/303/403	161	276	17	6	19%	6%	96	+1.0
●Jesús Sánchez 2017 · A	19	48→54	44→60	49→50	39	236/267/361	124	294	10	6	24%	4%	70	-0.3	241/274/368	127	313	13	5	26%	4%	76	+0.1	256/323/468	211	319	26	4	27%	8%	119	+2.3
●Avisaíl García 2009 · A	18	45→55	43→60	45→50	40	223/258/328	105	272	10	7	23%	4%	59	-1.1	217/245/288	71	312	5	10	31%	3%	42	-2.3	283/333/467	184	340	23	7	23%	6%	123	+2.8
●Jonathan Schoop 2012 · A	20	50→57	41→60	46→45	45	240/283/345	106	281	8	7	18%	5%	74	-0.1	225/272/350	125	275	14	5	23%	5%	72	-0.2	265/304/452	186	306	25	1	22%	4%	111	+2.3
✕Jairo Perez 2009 · A	21	47	42→55	46→50	47	226/302/335	108	267	8	9	18%	6%	81	+0.4	224/290/330	106	264	9	9	18%	7%	74	-0.1	262/318/409	147	302	16	8	18%	5%	104	+1.0
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A	19	44→53	44→50	50→55	42	218/268/339	121	285	11	12	27%	6%	66	-0.6	230/295/375	145	298	17	16	27%	8%	88	+0.9	233/300/377	144	296	17	19	26%	8%	87	+0.7
✕Anthony García 2011 · A	19	45→47	43→55	50→45	48	220/295/332	113	264	11	6	21%	8%	77	+0.1	220/281/378	158	284	17	5	28%	5%	83	+0.6	221/293/362	141	269	17	4	24%	7%	82	+0.3