Justin Gonzales

RF Greenville Drive
Age 20 R/R 6'5" / 210 lbs A+ HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP40OGV rank#146ETA2028MLB%4%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKDSL Red Sox R…192.320/.391/.5175857—.208/.266/.326
202518A+/A2 orgs406.285/.370/.39441288—.259/.325/.360
202619AA/A+BOS507.266/.387/.449191297—.238/.327/.400
2027PROJMLE20MLBBOS9.234/.313/.37700930.0
2028PROJ45% MLB21MLBBOS215.241/.322/.400741010.3
2029PROJ62% MLB22MLBBOS327.248/.328/.4191261080.7
Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$7M2033Arb-3$11M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
BB%82
Speed59
wOBA51
wRC+51
ISO45
K%42
Career WAR0.7 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 52, comp-based) · star 18% · didn't stick 60%
CompsAndy Pages (age 20) · Brett Lawrie (age 20) · Dylan Carlson (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†93
AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .313 / .377
PA9
HR0
K%22
BB%11
BABIP293
ISO139
MLB%4%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: -0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.91.90.00.30.71.01.21.31.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.4M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.7$2M+$2M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.0$6M+$6M
2031Arb-1$4M+1.2$7M+$4M
2032Arb-2$7M+1.3$7M+$3M
2033Arb-3$11M+1.3$7M+$0.5M
Totals $25M $31M +$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Red Sox Red — 192172 551145 19201 83 320391517908 198340 1010 399 57 — — — — — —
202518 A+Greenville Drive — 4943 8000 4111 13 186271186457 242 228 220 6 — — — — — —
202518 ASalem Red Sox — 357312 932324 35528 117 298383423806 125345 1510 362 99 — — — — — —
202619 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 8571 17212 12221 11 239357380737 141312 2614 333 88 — — — — — —
202619 A+Greenville Drive — 422350 9512217 567914 113 271393463856 191305 1913 382 99 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 192178 37633 13251 83 208266326591 118225 137 252 57 — — — — — —
202518 A+ MLEGreenville Drive — 4945 7000 2151 13 156208156364 227 314 177 6 — — — — — —
202518 A MLESalem Red Sox — 357322 882124 25728 117 273341388729 115334 207 315 99 — — — — — —
202619 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 8574 18212 9271 11 243333378712 135326 3211 299 88 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLEGreenville Drive — 422371 8810216 3510314 113 237326404731 167278 248 314 99 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 192178 37633 13251 83 208266326591 118227 137 252 57 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Red Sox Red — 192172 551145 19201 83 320391517908 198340 1010 399 57 — — — — — —
202518 A MLE2 teams — 406367 952124 27889 1210 259325360685 101327 227 298 88 — — — — — —
202518 A RAW2 teams — 406355 1012324 39639 1210 285370394764 110333 1610 345 88 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLE2 teams — 507445 10512317 4413015 124 236325391716 155292 269 311 97 — — — — — —
202619 A+ RAW2 teams — 507421 11214319 6810115 124 266387449836 183306 2013 374 97 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 192176 37633 13251 83 210266330595 119225 137 252 57 — — — — — —
202518 A MLE2 teams — 406367 952124 27889 1210 259325360685 101321 227 298 88 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLE2 teams — 507443 10512317 4413015 124 237325393718 156286 269 311 97 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 192176 37633 13251 83 210266330595 119225 137 252 57 — — — — — —
202518 A MLE2 teams — 406367 952124 27889 1210 259325360685 101321 227 298 88 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLE2 teams — 507443 10512317 4413015 124 237325393718 156286 269 311 97 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEBOS 4% 617549 12619318 5015613 104 229309371679 142284 258 305 93 -5 +0 -0 -7 +13 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202720 MLB CTXBOS 4% 98 1000 120 00 234313377690 142293 2211 310 93 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEBOS 45% 477424 10015216 4011710 93 236317394711 158286 258 318 101 +1 +1 -0 -5 +10 0.6
202922 MLB MLEBOS 62% 530469 11417319 4512611 104 242323414737 171287 248 328 108 +5 +0 +0 -6 +11 1.2
203023 MLB MLEBOS 68% 560496 12218322 4813011 104 246327425753 179288 239 334 112 +8 +0 +0 -6 +12 1.5
203124 MLB MLEBOS 70% 578511 12719323 5013212 104 248330432762 183289 239 337 114 +10 +0 +0 -6 +13 1.7
203225 MLB MLEBOS 70% 590522 13120324 5213511 104 249331434765 185289 239 338 115 +11 +0 +0 -6 +13 1.8
203326 MLB MLEBOS 71% 599529 13220324 5313712 94 249331434765 185289 239 339 115 +11 +0 +0 -6 +13 1.8
203427 MLB MLEBOS 69% 596527 13120324 5313711 94 248330431761 183288 239 337 114 +10 +0 +0 -6 +13 1.8
203528 MLB MLEBOS 69% 585517 12719323 5213611 73 246328426754 180287 239 334 112 +9 +0 -0 -6 +13 1.5
203629 MLB MLEBOS 67% 568502 12318322 5013311 63 244325420745 176286 239 331 110 +7 +0 -1 -6 +12 1.2
203730 MLB MLEBOS 66% 552489 11818221 4813110 53 240321412733 171284 249 326 107 +4 -0 -2 -6 +12 0.9
203831 MLB MLEBOS 65% 534474 11116219 461299 37 236316401718 165281 249 320 103 +2 -2 -2 -6 +12 0.3
203932 MLB MLEBOS 65% 511454 10515218 431269 38 231310388698 158277 258 312 97 -2 -3 -3 -5 +11 -0.2
204033 MLB MLEBOS 65% 476425 9613216 401208 39 224302373675 149272 258 303 91 -5 -3 -4 -5 +10 -0.7
202821 MLB CTXBOS 45% 215190 47817 18535 42 241322400721 158294 258 322 101 +0 +0 -0 -2 +5 0.3
202922 MLB CTXBOS 62% 327289 7312212 28777 62 248328419747 172295 249 332 108 +3 +0 +0 -4 +7 0.7
203023 MLB CTXBOS 68% 383339 8514214 33898 73 251332431763 180297 239 338 112 +6 +0 +0 -4 +8 1.0
203124 MLB CTXBOS 70% 403357 9115216 35928 73 254335437772 184298 239 342 114 +7 +0 +0 -4 +9 1.2
203225 MLB CTXBOS 70% 415367 9416216 37958 73 255335440775 185298 239 343 115 +7 +0 +0 -4 +9 1.3
203326 MLB CTXBOS 71% 423375 9516216 37968 73 255336440775 185298 239 343 115 +8 +0 +0 -5 +9 1.3
203427 MLB CTXBOS 69% 413365 9215216 37958 62 253335437772 184297 239 342 114 +7 +0 +0 -4 +9 1.3
203528 MLB CTXBOS 69% 402355 9015215 36938 52 252332432765 181296 239 339 112 +6 +0 -0 -4 +9 1.1
203629 MLB CTXBOS 67% 380337 8414214 33897 42 249330426755 177295 239 335 110 +4 +0 -1 -4 +8 0.8
203730 MLB CTXBOS 66% 363321 7913113 32867 32 246326417743 172293 249 330 107 +3 -0 -1 -4 +8 0.6
203831 MLB CTXBOS 65% 348309 7412112 30846 24 241321407728 166289 249 324 103 +1 -1 -2 -4 +8 0.2
203932 MLB CTXBOS 65% 331294 6911111 28826 25 236314394709 158285 258 316 97 -1 -2 -2 -4 +7 -0.1
204033 MLB CTXBOS 65% 307273 6310110 26775 26 229307378685 149280 258 307 91 -3 -2 -2 -3 +7 -0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 47104171 103617121172 410110891 6239 248329423752 175296 249 333 105 +48 -3 -6 -50 +102 9.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650576 14424324 5715313 95 250332427759 177299 249 333 105 +7 -0 -1 -7 +14 1.3
Career— MLE — 84717516 181627343301 7211985165 12979 242322410731 168287 239 323 105 +68 -5 -10 -79 +160 13.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650577 13921323 5515213 106 241321407728 166286 238 323 105 +6 -0 -1 -7 +14 1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Greenville Drive · 422 PAwOBA .374 → .314 (−60)K% 18.7% → 24.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.72%÷1.000×1.310——24.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.27%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0428.30%
HBP% /PA3.32%—×0.770—×1.0422.66%
Singles /BIP23.62%÷1.000×0.870×1.028×1.04222.02%
Doubles /BIP4.43%÷1.000×0.780×1.028×1.0423.70%
Triples /BIP0.74%÷1.000×0.850×1.028×1.0420.67%
Home runs /BIP6.27%÷1.000×0.880—×1.0425.75%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .374 → .314; ISO .191 → .173; BABIP .305 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 85 PAwOBA .329 → .299 (−30)K% 25.9% → 31.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.88%÷1.000×1.220——31.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.12%÷1.000×0.700—×1.05010.38%
HBP% /PA1.18%—×0.850—×1.0501.05%
Singles /BIP24.49%÷1.000×0.970×1.050×1.05026.19%
Doubles /BIP4.08%÷1.000×0.860×1.050×1.0503.87%
Triples /BIP2.04%÷1.000×0.950×1.050×1.0502.14%
Home runs /BIP4.08%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0503.34%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .329 → .299; ISO .141 → .124; BABIP .312 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASalem Red Sox · 357 PAwOBA .355 → .315 (−40)K% 14.6% → 20.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.57%÷0.974×1.360——20.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.80%÷1.011×0.690—×1.0456.99%
HBP% /PA2.24%—×0.780—×1.0451.83%
Singles /BIP24.62%÷1.030×0.920×1.050×1.04524.12%
Doubles /BIP8.85%÷0.963×0.830×1.050×1.0458.36%
Triples /BIP0.77%÷1.150×0.910×1.050×1.0450.67%
Home runs /BIP1.54%÷0.891×0.800—×1.0451.44%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .355 → .315; ISO .125 → .114; BABIP .345 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 49 PAwOBA .219 → .177 (−42)K% 22.4% → 31.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.45%÷0.936×1.310——31.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.16%÷1.050×0.600—×1.0504.90%
HBP% /PA2.04%—×0.770—×1.0501.65%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷0.974×0.870—×1.05023.44%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.099×0.780—×1.0500.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.011×0.850—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.117×0.880—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 95, 2B 120, 3B 102, K 87, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .219 → .177; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .242 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 192 PAwOBA .389 → .252 (−136)K% 10.4% → 13.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.42%÷0.965×1.220——13.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.90%÷1.044×0.700—×1.0086.68%
HBP% /PA0.52%—×0.700—×1.0080.37%
Singles /BIP23.03%÷1.000×0.680×1.033×1.00816.30%
Doubles /BIP7.24%÷1.124×0.600×1.033×1.0084.02%
Triples /BIP2.63%÷0.900×0.600×1.033×1.0081.83%
Home runs /BIP3.29%÷0.953×0.470—×1.0081.63%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 80, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .389 → .252; ISO .198 → .112; BABIP .340 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).