Curtis Mead — OGILVIE

Curtis Mead1B Washington Nationals

Age 25 R/R 6'1" / 225 lbs MLB HR -9% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.7 · 2027

wRC+†vL 8484vR 57

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .296 / .348

PA384

HR8

SB8

K%22

BB%7

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

40→40

SPD

45→45

EYE

41↗45

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.3peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.5M
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$1M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	16	INTL	Adelaide Bite	56	51	19	2	0	1	4	10	0	0	1	.373	.418	.471	.889	.098	.439	18	7	—	—	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
2018	17	INTL	Adelaide Bite	136	125	30	3	0	2	9	18	2	1	1	.240	.301	.312	.613	.072	.267	13	7	—	—	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
2019	18	ROK	2 teams	326	304	61	15	2	6	15	62	5	9	4	.201	.250	.322	.572	.122	.233	19	5	.248	48	-19	+0	+0	+1	+9	-0.9
2020	19	INTL	Adelaide Giants	76	72	25	7	0	3	3	13	1	2	0	.347	.382	.569	.951	.222	.393	17	4	—	—	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
2021	20	A+	3 teams	534	491	138	37	2	15	28	110	9	12	5	.281	.331	.456	.788	.175	.331	21	5	.333	113	+8	+0	+0	+2	+15	2.6
2022	21	AA	2 teams	331	293	76	23	0	12	25	77	9	7	2	.259	.336	.461	.797	.201	.308	23	8	.341	119	+7	+1	+0	+1	+9	1.9
2023	22	AAA	2 teams	370	330	83	21	3	8	30	78	5	4	2	.252	.323	.406	.729	.155	.301	21	8	.317	101	+0	+0	+1	+1	+10	1.3
2024	23	AAA	2 teams	542	496	121	18	7	11	26	105	15	13	6	.244	.302	.375	.677	.131	.286	19	5	.297	86	-9	+0	-3	+2	+15	0.6
2025	24	MLB	2 teams	333	302	71	14	1	5	20	83	10	5	1	.235	.304	.338	.642	.103	.307	25	6	.286	77	-9	+1	-1	+1	+9	0.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	55	50	10	3	0	3	5	9	0	2	0	.200	.273	.440	.713	.240	.184	16	9	.309	95	-0	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.0
ROS	25	MLB	WSH	329	296	68	13	2	8	23	71	7	6	1	.230	.301	.368	.669	.139	.268	22	7	.293	83	-6	+1	-0	+1	+9	0.5
TOT	25	MLB	WSH	384	346	78	16	2	11	28	80	7	8	1	.225	.297	.379	.675	.153	.261	21	7	.296	84	-7	+1	-1	+0	+11	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB	WSH	458	414	93	18	2	11	32	90	9	8	2	.225	.295	.357	.652	.133	.260	20	7	.295	84	-8	+1	-0	+2	+13	0.7
2028	27	MLB	WSH	456	411	93	18	2	11	33	90	9	8	2	.226	.298	.360	.658	.134	.260	20	7	.295	84	-8	+1	-0	+2	+13	0.7
2029	28	MLB	WSH	451	406	91	17	2	11	33	90	9	7	1	.224	.297	.357	.654	.133	.260	20	7	.294	83	-9	+1	-1	+2	+13	0.6
2030	29	MLB	WSH	440	396	88	17	2	10	32	89	9	6	1	.222	.295	.351	.646	.129	.259	20	7	.292	82	-9	+1	-1	+2	+12	0.4
2031	30	MLB	WSH	430	387	85	16	2	10	31	89	9	5	1	.220	.293	.349	.642	.129	.258	21	7	.289	79	-10	+1	-2	+2	+12	0.2
2032	31	MLB	WSH	415	374	81	15	2	9	30	87	8	3	0	.217	.289	.340	.628	.123	.256	21	7	.285	76	-11	+1	-3	+1	+12	-0.0
2033	32	MLB	WSH	396	356	76	14	2	8	29	85	8	1	0	.213	.288	.331	.619	.118	.255	21	7	.280	73	-12	+0	-4	+1	+11	-0.3
2034	33	MLB	WSH	366	330	69	13	2	7	26	81	7	0	0	.209	.281	.324	.605	.115	.253	22	7	.275	69	-13	+0	-4	+1	+10	-0.6
2035	34	MLB	WSH	321	289	59	11	1	6	23	74	6	0	0	.204	.277	.311	.588	.107	.251	23	7	.269	64	-13	+0	-5	+1	+9	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6766	6123	1427	292	34	154	452	1402	137	97	30	.233	.300	.367	.668	.134	.276	21	7	.283	75	-195	+7	-23	+24	+192	0.6
/ 162G	—			650	588	137	28	3	15	43	135	13	9	3	.233	.299	.367	.667	.134	.276	21	7	.283	75	-19	+1	-2	+2	+18	0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	16	INTL	Adelaide Bite	56	51	19	2	0	1	4	10	0	0	1	.373	.418	.471	.889	.098	.439	18	7	.391	158	+4	-0	—	—	+2	0.5
2018	17	INTL	Adelaide Bite	136	125	30	3	0	2	9	18	2	1	1	.240	.301	.312	.613	.072	.267	13	7	.282	74	-4	-0	—	—	+4	-0.0
2019	18	ROK	GCL Phillies East	175	158	45	12	2	4	13	23	3	4	3	.285	.351	.462	.813	.177	.313	13	7	.358	132	+6	-0	—	—	+5	1.1
2019	18	INTL	Adelaide Giants	151	136	42	6	0	6	12	24	2	5	1	.309	.373	.485	.859	.176	.340	16	8	.379	148	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
2020	19	INTL	Adelaide Giants	76	72	25	7	0	3	3	13	1	2	0	.347	.382	.569	.951	.222	.393	17	4	.416	177	+7	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2021	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	233	206	58	15	1	7	19	38	4	2	2	.282	.354	.466	.820	.184	.309	16	8	.358	132	+8	-0	—	—	+7	1.5
2021	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	211	191	68	21	1	7	15	30	3	9	2	.356	.411	.586	.998	.230	.391	14	7	.432	189	+21	+1	—	—	+6	2.9
2021	20	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	90	83	26	5	2	3	4	13	2	1	1	.313	.356	.530	.886	.217	.343	14	4	.385	153	+5	-0	—	—	+3	0.8
2022	21	AAA	Durham Bulls	85	72	20	6	0	3	11	17	1	1	0	.278	.381	.486	.867	.208	.321	20	13	.380	149	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2022	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	246	210	64	21	0	10	25	45	8	6	2	.305	.399	.548	.947	.243	.342	18	10	.410	172	+20	+0	—	—	+7	2.8
2023	22	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	92	83	21	3	1	1	7	21	2	0	0	.253	.326	.349	.675	.096	.328	23	8	.308	94	-1	+0	+1	+1	+3	0.4
2023	22	AAA	Durham Bulls	278	235	69	21	2	9	35	48	3	4	2	.294	.392	.515	.907	.221	.328	17	13	.392	158	+18	+0	—	—	+8	2.7
2024	23	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	132	122	29	3	0	1	6	30	2	2	0	.238	.282	.287	.569	.049	.304	23	5	.259	57	-6	+0	-3	+2	+4	-0.3
2024	23	AAA	Durham Bulls	410	364	105	19	6	13	29	64	13	11	6	.288	.362	.481	.843	.192	.316	16	7	.370	141	+19	-0	—	—	+12	3.1
2025	24	MLB	Chicago White Sox	264	240	56	10	1	3	15	63	8	5	1	.233	.300	.321	.621	.088	.303	24	6	.284	76	-7	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.1
2025	24	AAA	Charlotte Knights	69	60	18	4	0	3	7	17	2	0	0	.300	.391	.517	.908	.217	.375	25	10	.401	165	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			488	445	106	16	2	5	28	114	12	7	1	.238	.300	.317	.617	.079	.308	23	6	.282	74	-14	+1	-2	+4	+14	0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Curtis Mead (OGILVIE)	25	50	40	45	45	.223/.293/.355	.132	.260	9	7	20%	7%	83	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yorman Rodriguez 2022 · AAA	25	48→49	44→45	46→50	39	.239/.272/.355	.116	.287	13	8	22%	4%	72	-0.2	.240/.278/.367	.127	.281	15	6	20%	5%	78	+0.2	.241/.280/.367	.126	.276	16	5	19%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Pablo Reyes 2019 · MLB	25	49→52	43→50	47→55	47	.238/.290/.353	.115	.282	11	16	20%	7%	79	+0.3	.234/.287/.374	.140	.279	14	13	21%	7%	84	+0.6	.244/.311/.364	.120	.287	14	21	19%	8%	88	+0.4
✕Jamie Hoffmann 2010 · MLB	25	49→53	44→45	50→55	49	.241/.298/.363	.122	.278	11	18	18%	7%	85	+0.7	.228/.281/.339	.111	.280	11	14	22%	6%	72	-0.2	.220/.274/.329	.109	.272	12	13	23%	6%	65	-0.6
✕Cameron Perkins 2016 · AAA	25	49→54	43→45	46→50	43	.239/.280/.357	.118	.280	9	7	18%	4%	76	+0.0	.234/.275/.352	.118	.274	11	9	19%	4%	72	-0.2	.230/.274/.349	.119	.272	11	9	19%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Barrett Barnes 2016 · AA	25	43→52	44→45	48→50	46	.216/.285/.336	.120	.267	12	15	24%	7%	74	-0.1	.231/.295/.349	.118	.317	10	11	28%	7%	81	+0.4	.220/.296/.347	.127	.310	12	7	31%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Buddy Kennedy 2023 · MLB	24	43→52	46→45	50	47	.215/.289/.338	.123	.284	14	12	28%	9%	76	+0.0	.228/.310/.347	.119	.288	11	7	23%	9%	87	+0.8	.229/.316/.348	.119	.280	11	4	21%	9%	88	+0.7
●Bryan Petersen 2011 · MLB	25	47→57	44→45	46→50	45	.231/.285/.340	.110	.278	12	11	22%	6%	74	-0.1	.241/.306/.344	.103	.300	8	13	21%	8%	84	+0.6	.241/.312/.340	.099	.308	7	13	22%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Daniel Paolini 2016 · AAA	26	45→50	45→50	43→40	49	.223/.295/.351	.128	.272	13	5	23%	8%	82	+0.5	.217/.280/.310	.093	.296	8	7	27%	7%	64	-0.8	.167/.223/.185	.018	.249	0	0	31%	7%	4	-0.9
✕Ty Wright 2011 · AAA	26	51→55	43→45	46→45	43	.248/.290/.357	.110	.284	11	7	17%	4%	80	+0.4	.247/.290/.368	.121	.288	12	6	18%	5%	83	+0.6	.247/.293/.366	.119	.289	12	4	19%	5%	81	+0.2
✕Ben Guez 2012 · AAA	25	47→52	45→50	46→50	40	.230/.282/.363	.133	.299	10	12	26%	5%	79	+0.3	.225/.297/.366	.141	.302	14	12	28%	7%	86	+0.8	.208/.288/.359	.151	.282	17	11	31%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Dariel Álvarez 2014 · AA	25	49→57	45	45	43	.243/.284/.361	.118	.293	13	10	22%	5%	79	+0.3	.258/.282/.384	.126	.289	13	7	16%	3%	83	+0.6	.254/.278/.369	.114	.287	11	7	16%	3%	75	+0.0
✕Anthony García 2017 · AAA	25	42→46	47→55	42→45	46	.212/.280/.347	.136	.253	15	6	23%	7%	75	-0.0	.221/.287/.363	.142	.268	16	6	24%	7%	82	+0.5	.218/.290/.362	.145	.263	18	4	24%	7%	81	+0.3
✕Nick Sogard 2023 · AAA	25	45→50	43→45	51→50	48	.224/.291/.335	.111	.278	11	14	23%	8%	76	+0.0	.231/.303/.335	.104	.293	9	16	23%	9%	80	+0.4	.234/.311/.335	.101	.297	9	17	22%	9%	80	+0.3
✕Alfredo Marte 2014 · MLB	25	46→47	47→50	45	42	.233/.283/.372	.139	.281	14	6	23%	5%	82	+0.5	.228/.284/.350	.122	.298	12	8	26%	6%	76	+0.1	.226/.286/.344	.119	.296	12	10	27%	7%	74	-0.0
●Yamaico Navarro 2013 · MLB	25	45→53	46→50	47→50	48	.226/.285/.354	.128	.266	13	14	21%	7%	77	+0.1	.233/.294/.361	.128	.280	13	11	21%	8%	83	+0.6	.234/.304/.398	.164	.266	23	9	21%	9%	97	+1.2
✕Brandon Short 2014 · AAA	25	45→53	42→45	48→50	41	.218/.270/.328	.109	.283	9	11	26%	6%	64	-0.8	.205/.259/.309	.104	.274	7	8	26%	6%	55	-1.4	.189/.237/.296	.107	.254	7	6	28%	5%	40	-1.1
✕Colton Welker 2023 · MLB	25	44→54	47→45	48→45	45	.222/.288/.354	.132	.286	15	7	27%	8%	79	+0.3	.222/.311/.315	.093	.298	8	9	26%	10%	79	+0.3	.202/.322/.231	.029	.286	0	6	25%	13%	62	-0.3
✕Carlos Alvarez 2013 · AAA	25	48	47→45	48→45	46	.237/.293/.371	.134	.294	14	10	24%	7%	85	+0.7	.227/.296/.345	.118	.278	10	8	21%	8%	80	+0.4	.249/.327/.336	.087	.300	6	6	18%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Stuart Fairchild 2022 · MLB	26	44→43	48→50	49→55	45	.221/.291/.370	.149	.279	16	11	26%	7%	85	+0.7	.225/.303/.384	.159	.299	18	16	29%	7%	94	+1.3	.217/.301/.370	.153	.287	17	20	29%	8%	86	+0.4
✕Dee Brown 2003 · MLB	25	49→50	44→50	45	45	.239/.289/.360	.121	.294	12	8	23%	6%	80	+0.4	.231/.283/.351	.120	.293	13	7	25%	6%	76	+0.0	.231/.294/.369	.138	.263	15	8	18%	7%	83	+0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)