Curtis Mead

1B Boston Red Sox
Age 26 R/R 6'1" / 225 lbs MLB HR -5%K -4% Svc 1.918 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202423AAATB410.288/.362/.481131199—.258/.320/.411
202423MLBTB132.238/.282/.2871260-0.4
202524AAACWS69.300/.391/.5173095—.242/.319/.387
202524MLBCWS264.233/.300/.3213578-0.0
202625MLBBOS329.253/.353/.4981761361.5
2027PROJ26MLBBOS321.255/.342/.4391161160.7
2028PROJ92% MLB27MLBBOS302.254/.341/.4361051150.6
2029PROJ92% MLB28MLBBOS303.252/.338/.4311041130.5
Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service1.918First FA2032
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$2M2031Arb-3$2M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA59
Bat Spd56
Barrel%44
Speed40
Avg EV35
CompsSpencer Steer (age 26) · Nick Solak (age 26) · Jonathan India (age 26)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 117116vR 110
AVG/OBP/SLG.255 / .342 / .439
PA321
HR11
SB6
K%21
BB%10
BABIP294
ISO181
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +6.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+6BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.9 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: -5.7 runs (Positional adjustment)-6POSREP: +7.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+7REPTotal WAR: +0.90+0.9WAR
0.00.51.00.90.60.50.30.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT50
xAVG
430.246
POWER40
Barrel%
447.4
Avg EV
3588.0
Bat Spd
5672.0
EYE45
scouting grade only
SPEED45
Sprint
4027.0
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 455 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
207
248
—
wRC+
86
63
◀◀L
wOBA
295
262
◀L
ISO
085
101
▶▶R
BABIP
293
288
—
K%
18.8%
26.2%
◀◀L
BB%
7.7%
4.4%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2023
Service   1.918 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.9$4M+$3M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.6$2M+$2M
2029Arb-1$2M+0.5$2M+$0.4M
2030Arb-2$2M+0.3$1.0M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-3$2M———
Totals $3M $8M +$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201716 INTLAdelaide Bite — 5651 19201 4100 01 373418471889 98439 187 391 151 — — — — — —
201817 INTLAdelaide Bite — 136125 30302 9182 11 240301312613 72267 137 282 77 — — — — — —
201918 ROKGCL Phillies East — 175158 451224 13233 43 285351462813 177313 137 358 55 — — — — — —
201918 INTLAdelaide Giants — 151136 42606 12242 51 309373485859 176340 168 379 142 — — — — — —
202019 INTLAdelaide Giants — 7672 25703 3131 20 347382569951 222393 174 416 168 — — — — — —
202120 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods — 233206 581517 19384 22 282354466820 184309 168 358 93 — — — — — —
202120 ACharleston RiverDogs — 211191 682117 15303 92 356411586998 230391 147 432 139 — — — — — —
202120 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 9083 26523 4132 11 313356530886 217343 144 385 147 — — — — — —
202221 AAADurham Bulls — 8572 20603 11171 10 278381486867 208321 2013 380 95 — — — — — —
202221 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 246210 6421010 25458 62 305399548947 243342 1810 410 129 — — — — — —
202322 MLBTampa Bay Rays — 9283 21311 7212 00 253326349675 96328 238 308 93 -1 +0 +1 +1 +2 0.3
202322 AAADurham Bulls — 278235 692129 35483 42 294392515907 221328 1713 392 108 — — — — — —
202423 MLBTampa Bay Rays — 132122 29301 6302 20 238282287569 49304 235 259 60 -6 +0 -3 +2 +3 -0.4
202423 AAADurham Bulls — 410364 10519613 296413 116 288362481843 192316 167 370 99 — — — — — —
202524 MLBChicago White Sox — 264240 561013 15638 51 233300321621 88303 246 284 78 -7 +1 -1 +1 +6 -0.0
202524 AAACharlotte Knights — 6960 18403 7172 00 300391517908 217375 2510 401 95 — — — — — —
202625 MLBBoston Red Sox — 329285 7217117 39635 62 253353498851 246268 1912 374 136 +14 +0 -1 -6 +7 1.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 817730 17833322 6717717 133 244321388709 144293 228 319 102 +2 +1 -3 -1 +18 1.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201918 ROK MLEGCL Phillies East — 175163 33813 8333 43 202253319572 117234 195 249 55 — — — — — —
202120 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 233211 521116 14504 22 246306393699 147283 216 305 93 — — — — — —
202120 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 211197 632015 9423 92 320359508866 188376 204 374 139 — — — — — —
202221 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 8575 18502 8201 10 240321387708 147287 249 308 95 — — — — — —
202221 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 246217 611909 18538 62 281358493851 212317 227 359 129 — — — — — —
202322 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays — 9283 21311 7212 00 253326349675 96328 238 306 93 -1 +0 +1 +1 +2 0.3
202322 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 278246 631826 24573 42 256330419748 163295 219 328 108 — — — — — —
202423 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays — 132123 29301 6302 20 236282285567 49304 235 257 60 -6 +0 -3 +2 +3 -0.4
202423 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 410372 961679 217613 116 258320411731 153291 195 315 99 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 264240 561013 15638 51 233300321621 88303 246 283 78 -7 +1 -1 +1 +6 -0.0
202524 AAA MLECharlotte Knights — 6962 15302 5202 00 242319387706 145340 297 308 95 — — — — — —
202625 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 329285 6915117 39635 62 242343481824 239268 1912 369 136 +14 +0 -1 -6 +7 1.5
201716 INTL MLEAdelaide Bite — 5651 19201 4100 01 373418471889 98439 187 — — — — — — — —
201716 INTL RAWAdelaide Bite — 5651 19201 4100 01 373418471889 98439 187 391 151 — — — — — —
201817 INTL MLEAdelaide Bite — 136125 30302 9182 11 240301312613 72267 137 — — — — — — — —
201817 INTL RAWAdelaide Bite — 136125 30302 9182 11 240301312613 72267 137 282 77 — — — — — —
201918 ROK MLE2 teams — 326304 621536 15625 94 204253332585 128237 195 249 55 — — — — — —
201918 ROK RAW2 teams — 326294 8718210 25475 94 296361473834 177325 148 368 55 — — — — — —
202019 INTL MLEAdelaide Giants — 7672 25703 3131 20 347382569951 222393 174 — — — — — — — —
202019 INTL RAWAdelaide Giants — 7672 25703 3131 20 347382569951 222393 174 416 168 — — — — — —
202120 A+ MLE3 teams — 534490 14038214 291119 125 286337457794 171340 215 338 115 — — — — — —
202120 A+ RAW3 teams — 534480 15241417 38819 125 317377525902 208348 157 391 115 — — — — — —
202221 AA MLE2 teams — 331292 7924011 26749 72 271349466814 195322 228 346 120 — — — — — —
202221 AA RAW2 teams — 331282 8427013 36629 72 298394532926 234336 1911 403 120 — — — — — —
202322 AAA MLE2 teams — 370329 832137 31785 42 252326398724 146305 218 323 104 — — — — — —
202322 AAA RAW2 teams — 370318 9024310 42695 42 283375472847 189328 1911 371 104 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLE2 teams — 542495 12419710 2710615 136 251309378687 127297 205 301 90 — — — — — —
202423 AAA RAW2 teams — 542486 13422614 359415 136 276343432775 156313 176 343 90 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLE2 teams — 333302 711315 208310 51 235304334639 99307 256 288 81 -7 +1 -1 +1 +7 0.1
202524 MLB RAW2 teams — 333300 741416 228010 51 247319360679 113316 247 309 81 -7 +1 -1 +1 +7 0.1
202625 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 329285 6915117 39635 62 242343481824 239254 1912 369 136 +14 +0 -1 -6 +7 1.5
202625 MLB RAWBoston Red Sox — 329285 7217117 39635 62 253353498851 246268 1912 374 136 +14 +0 -1 -6 +7 1.5
201918 ROK MLE2 teams — 326303 621536 15625 94 205253333586 129234 195 249 55 — — — — — —
202120 A+ MLE3 teams — 534491 14038214 291119 125 285337456793 171327 215 338 115 — — — — — —
202221 AA MLE2 teams — 331293 7924011 26749 72 270349464813 195309 228 346 120 — — — — — —
202322 AAA MLE2 teams — 370331 832137 31785 42 251326396722 145303 218 323 104 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLE2 teams — 542495 12419710 2710615 136 251309378687 127294 205 301 90 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLE2 teams — 333300 711315 208310 51 237304337641 100311 256 288 81 — — — — — —
202625 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 329282 6915117 39635 62 245343486829 241268 1912 369 136 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 AAA MLE2 teams — 542495 12419710 2710615 136 251309378687 127294 205 301 90 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLE2 teams — 333300 711315 208310 51 237304337641 100311 256 288 81 — — — — — —
202625 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 329282 6915117 39635 62 245343486829 241268 1912 369 136 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLEBOS 100% 420368 9118215 41868 82 248336430765 181283 2010 340 116 +8 +1 -1 -8 +9 0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXBOS 100% 321281 7216111 31666 62 255342439781 184294 2110 346 116 +6 +0 -1 -6 +7 0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLEBOS 92% 328287 7014111 32686 62 247335427761 180282 2110 338 115 +6 +0 -1 -6 +7 0.7
202928 MLB MLEBOS 92% 329288 7014111 32696 51 245332421753 176281 2110 335 113 +5 +1 -2 -6 +7 0.5
203029 MLB MLEBOS 92% 319280 6814111 31675 31 242329414743 172279 2110 331 110 +4 +0 -2 -6 +7 0.3
203130 MLB MLEBOS 92% 310272 6513110 30665 21 238325404729 167276 2110 325 106 +2 +0 -3 -6 +7 0.1
203231 MLB MLEBOS 92% 291256 601219 28635 01 232319392711 160271 2210 318 101 +0 -0 -4 -5 +6 -0.2
202827 MLB CTXBOS 92% 302265 6715110 29625 52 254341436777 182293 2110 344 115 +5 +0 -1 -5 +7 0.6
202928 MLB CTXBOS 92% 303266 6715110 29635 41 252338431769 179291 2110 341 113 +5 +0 -2 -5 +7 0.5
203029 MLB CTXBOS 92% 293258 6414110 28625 31 249335423758 175289 2110 337 110 +3 +0 -2 -5 +6 0.3
203130 MLB CTXBOS 92% 285251 611319 27615 21 245331414745 169286 219 332 106 +2 +0 -3 -5 +6 0.0
203231 MLB CTXBOS 92% 268236 561218 26584 01 239325402726 162281 2210 324 101 +0 -0 -3 -5 +6 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 22682006 493102869 20648341 279 246328408736 162290 219 330 93 +18 +2 -14 -27 +49 2.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650575 14129220 5913812 83 245328407735 162288 219 330 93 +5 +1 -4 -8 +14 0.8
Career— MLE — 49314409 110423823139 387101794 8132 250324409734 159294 218 305 93 +26 +3 -16 -35 +59 3.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650581 14531318 5113412 114 250322406729 157293 218 305 93 +6 +1 -4 -8 +14 0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 69 PAwOBA .391 → .308 (−83)K% 24.6% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.64%÷0.996×1.200——29.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.14%÷0.984×0.690—×1.0337.35%
HBP% /PA2.90%—×0.940—×1.0332.81%
Singles /BIP25.58%÷1.002×0.930—×1.03324.52%
Doubles /BIP9.30%÷0.980×0.830—×1.0338.14%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.961×0.970—×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP6.98%÷1.320×0.700—×1.0333.82%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .391 → .308; ISO .217 → .136; BABIP .375 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 410 PAwOBA .362 → .315 (−47)K% 15.6% → 18.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.61%÷1.014×1.200——18.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.83%÷0.971×0.690—×1.0485.09%
HBP% /PA3.17%—×0.940—×1.0483.12%
Singles /BIP22.33%÷0.985×0.930×0.958×1.04821.17%
Doubles /BIP6.33%÷0.994×0.830×0.958×1.0485.31%
Triples /BIP2.00%÷0.900×0.970×0.958×1.0482.16%
Home runs /BIP4.33%÷1.061×0.700—×1.0483.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .362 → .315; ISO .192 → .154; BABIP .316 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 278 PAwOBA .388 → .328 (−60)K% 17.3% → 20.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.27%÷1.009×1.200——20.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.23%÷1.011×0.690—×1.0508.76%
HBP% /PA1.08%—×0.940—×1.0501.07%
Singles /BIP19.79%÷1.006×0.930×0.983×1.05018.88%
Doubles /BIP11.23%÷1.020×0.830×0.983×1.0509.44%
Triples /BIP1.07%÷1.003×0.970×0.983×1.0501.07%
Home runs /BIP4.81%÷1.137×0.700—×1.0503.11%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .388 → .328; ISO .221 → .172; BABIP .328 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 246 PAwOBA .404 → .359 (−46)K% 18.3% → 21.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.29%÷1.032×1.220——21.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.16%÷0.984×0.680—×1.0427.32%
HBP% /PA3.25%—×0.840—×1.0422.85%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.001×0.920×1.014×1.04219.43%
Doubles /BIP12.73%÷1.090×0.910×1.014×1.04211.23%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.955×0.880×1.014×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP6.06%÷0.970×0.800—×1.0425.21%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 100, 2B 118, 3B 91, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .404 → .359; ISO .243 → .215; BABIP .342 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 85 PAwOBA .375 → .308 (−66)K% 20.0% → 24.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷0.999×1.200——24.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.94%÷1.059×0.690—×1.0508.85%
HBP% /PA1.18%—×0.940—×1.0501.16%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷0.988×0.930×0.987×1.05019.51%
Doubles /BIP10.91%÷1.091×0.830×0.987×1.0508.60%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.987×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP5.45%÷1.034×0.700—×1.0503.88%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .375 → .308; ISO .208 → .158; BABIP .321 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 233 PAwOBA .354 → .305 (−49)K% 16.3% → 21.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.31%÷1.027×1.350——21.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.15%÷0.953×0.710—×1.0276.24%
HBP% /PA1.72%—×0.810—×1.0271.43%
Singles /BIP20.83%÷0.957×0.910×1.018×1.02720.70%
Doubles /BIP8.93%÷1.135×0.830×1.018×1.0276.83%
Triples /BIP0.60%÷1.150×0.820×1.018×1.0270.44%
Home runs /BIP4.17%÷0.978×0.830—×1.0273.63%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 91, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 105, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .354 → .305; ISO .184 → .149; BABIP .309 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ACharleston RiverDogs · 211 PAwOBA .423 → .374 (−49)K% 14.2% → 20.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.22%÷0.966×1.360——20.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.64%÷1.028×0.690—×1.0154.52%
HBP% /PA1.42%—×0.780—×1.0151.13%
Singles /BIP24.22%÷0.968×0.920×1.009×1.01523.57%
Doubles /BIP13.04%÷0.871×0.830×1.009×1.01512.73%
Triples /BIP0.62%÷1.150×0.910×1.009×1.0150.50%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷1.026×0.800—×1.0153.44%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 74, 3B 130, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .423 → .374; ISO .230 → .198; BABIP .391 → .376. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Phillies East · 175 PAwOBA .349 → .249 (−99)K% 13.1% → 18.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.14%÷1.000×1.440——18.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.43%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0084.64%
HBP% /PA1.71%—×0.720—×1.0081.24%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.000×0.820×0.950×1.00815.70%
Doubles /BIP8.89%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×1.0086.13%
Triples /BIP1.48%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×1.0081.02%
Home runs /BIP2.96%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0082.33%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .349 → .249; ISO .177 → .126; BABIP .313 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .