Spencer Steer — OGILVIE

Spencer SteerLF Cincinnati Reds

Age 28 R/R 5'9" / 185 lbs MLB HR +16%BB +6% Svc 3.203 · Ctrl thru 2028 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION384 act + 6 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 114111vR 103

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .333 / .200

PA6

HR0

K%17

BB%17

BABIP287

ISO171

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

817.8%

xAVG

260.232

POWER45

Barrel%

518.3

Avg EV

3788.2

Bat Spd

4871.2

EYE55

Chase%

9021.8%

SPEED55

Sprint

7628.5

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1315 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

325

990

—

wRC+

101

103

—

wOBA

318

321

—

ISO

180

176

—

BABIP

259

273

▶R

21.8%

22.4%

—

BB%

10.8%

9.4%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.203 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$0.2M
2027	Arb-2	$7M	+1.5	$11M	+$5M
2028	Arb-3	$9M	+1.2	$8M	+$1M
Totals		$16M		$20M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	201	173	45	12	2	2	19	28	8	5	1	260	360	387	747	127	299	14	9	339	116	+4	+1	—	—	+4	0.9
2021	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	280	249	60	11	2	14	20	73	5	4	0	241	310	470	780	229	274	26	7	336	113	+4	+1	—	—	+6	1.2
2021	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	208	168	46	7	1	10	35	32	4	4	4	274	411	506	917	232	283	15	17	404	160	+15	-1	—	—	+5	1.9
2022	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	108	95	20	5	0	2	11	26	2	0	1	211	306	326	632	116	269	24	10	292	83	-2	-0	-1	+2	+2	0.1
2022	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	336	290	75	17	1	15	37	66	7	3	0	259	356	479	836	221	284	20	11	368	135	+14	+1	—	—	+7	2.2
2022	24	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	156	137	42	13	1	8	14	23	4	1	3	307	387	591	978	285	318	15	9	422	171	+13	-1	—	—	+3	1.6
2023	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	665	582	158	37	3	23	68	139	11	15	3	271	359	464	822	192	318	21	10	363	132	+25	+2	-14	-12	+14	1.6
2024	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	656	574	129	34	4	20	72	137	8	25	3	225	320	402	722	178	260	21	11	323	105	+4	+4	-6	-7	+14	0.9
2025	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	568	509	121	21	2	21	51	129	5	7	1	238	313	411	724	173	277	23	9	322	104	+3	+1	-2	-10	+12	0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1997	1760	428	97	9	66	202	431	26	47	8	243	330	421	751	178	285	22	10	335	113	+30	+6	-24	-27	+43	2.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	21	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	201	178	38	9	2	2	14	39	8	5	1	213	300	320	620	107	253	19	7	265	65	-8	+1	—	—	+4	-0.3
2021	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	280	255	50	9	2	10	14	90	5	4	0	196	252	365	617	169	235	32	5	261	63	-12	+1	—	—	+6	-0.6
2021	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	208	179	40	6	1	9	24	43	4	4	4	223	329	419	747	196	238	21	12	323	105	+1	-1	—	—	+5	0.5
2022	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	108	95	20	5	0	2	11	26	2	0	1	211	306	326	632	116	269	24	10	282	77	-3	-0	-1	+2	+2	0.0
2022	24	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	336	303	63	15	1	8	24	83	7	3	0	208	281	343	625	135	256	25	7	278	74	-10	+1	—	—	+7	-0.2
2022	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	156	141	35	11	1	6	10	29	4	1	3	248	316	468	784	220	267	19	6	334	112	+2	-1	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	665	582	155	36	3	21	68	139	11	15	3	266	354	447	801	180	318	21	10	350	123	+18	+2	-14	-12	+14	0.9
2024	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	656	574	127	33	4	19	72	137	8	25	3	221	317	392	708	171	260	21	11	310	96	-3	+4	-6	-7	+14	0.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	568	509	119	21	2	19	51	129	5	7	1	234	310	395	705	161	277	23	9	309	95	-3	+1	-2	-10	+12	-0.2
2019	21	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	201	178	38	9	2	2	14	39	8	5	1	213	300	320	620	107	261	19	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	201	173	45	12	2	2	19	28	8	5	1	260	360	387	747	127	299	14	9	339	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	488	434	89	14	3	19	38	133	9	8	4	205	283	382	665	177	242	27	8	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	488	417	106	18	3	24	55	105	9	8	4	254	353	484	838	230	278	22	11	365	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	600	539	118	30	2	16	45	138	13	4	4	219	295	371	666	152	263	23	8	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	600	522	137	35	2	25	62	115	13	4	4	262	355	481	836	218	291	19	10	368	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	665	582	155	36	3	21	68	139	11	15	3	266	354	447	801	180	315	21	10	350	123	+18	+2	-14	-12	+14	0.9
2023	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	665	582	158	37	3	23	68	139	11	15	3	271	359	464	822	192	318	21	10	363	123	+18	+2	-14	-12	+14	0.9
2024	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	656	574	127	33	4	19	72	137	8	25	3	221	317	392	708	171	257	21	11	310	96	-3	+4	-6	-7	+14	0.2
2024	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	656	574	129	34	4	20	72	137	8	25	3	225	320	402	722	178	260	21	11	323	96	-3	+4	-6	-7	+14	0.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	568	509	119	21	2	19	51	129	5	7	1	234	310	395	705	161	275	23	9	309	95	-3	+1	-2	-10	+12	-0.2
2025	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	568	509	121	21	2	21	51	129	5	7	1	238	313	411	724	173	277	23	9	322	95	-3	+1	-2	-10	+12	-0.2
2019	21	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	201	177	38	9	2	2	14	39	8	5	1	215	300	322	622	107	253	19	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	488	438	89	14	3	19	38	133	9	8	4	203	283	379	662	176	236	27	8	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	600	537	118	30	2	16	45	138	13	4	4	220	295	372	667	153	261	23	8	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	665	581	155	36	3	21	68	139	11	15	3	267	354	448	802	181	318	21	10	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	656	571	127	33	4	19	72	137	8	25	3	222	317	394	711	172	260	21	11	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	568	507	119	21	2	19	51	129	5	7	1	235	310	396	706	162	277	23	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	665	581	155	36	3	21	68	139	11	15	3	267	354	448	802	181	318	21	10	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	656	571	127	33	4	19	72	137	8	25	3	222	317	394	711	172	260	21	11	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	568	507	119	21	2	19	51	129	5	7	1	235	310	396	706	162	277	23	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	CIN	—	384	341	80	14	0	15	35	86	6	3	0	235	317	408	724	173	269	22	9	315	100	-0	+1	-1	-4	+8	0.3
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	CIN	—	384	340	81	14	0	16	35	86	6	3	0	238	319	421	740	182	271	22	9	329	100	-0	+1	-1	-4	+8	0.3
YTD	28	MLB RAW	CIN	—	384	340	81	14	0	16	35	86	6	3	0	238	319	421	740	182	271	22	9	329	109	+4	+1	-1	-4	+8	0.8
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	200	333	200	533		283	17	17	333	111	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	200	333	200	533		287	17	17	331	111	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	28	MLB A+C	CIN	—	390	345	82	14	0	16	36	87	6	3	0	238	320	417	737	180	270	22	9	329	100	-0	+1	-1	-4	+8	0.4
TOT	28	MLB MLE	CIN	—	390	346	81	14	0	15	36	87	6	3	0	234	317	405	722	171	268	22	9	316	100	-0	+1	-1	-4	+8	0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	643	567	138	30	2	23	62	143	9	9	2	243	328	425	753	182	283	22	10	333	111	+9	+1	-3	-7	+14	1.5
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	630	555	134	29	2	22	61	142	9	8	1	241	326	420	746	178	281	23	10	330	109	+7	+1	-3	-7	+14	1.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	617	545	129	28	2	21	59	141	8	7	1	237	320	411	731	174	278	23	10	325	106	+4	+1	-4	-7	+13	0.8
2030	32	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	605	534	124	26	2	20	58	141	8	6	1	232	317	401	717	169	273	23	10	318	101	+1	+1	-5	-6	+13	0.4
2031	33	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	522	460	103	21	1	17	50	124	7	4	1	224	309	385	694	161	266	24	10	309	95	-3	+0	-5	-6	+11	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	643	567	141	31	2	25	62	143	9	9	2	249	332	443	775	194	287	22	10	331	111	+9	+1	-3	-7	+14	1.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	630	555	137	30	2	24	61	142	9	8	1	247	331	438	769	191	285	23	10	327	109	+7	+1	-3	-7	+14	1.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	617	545	131	28	2	23	59	141	8	7	1	240	324	426	749	185	282	23	10	322	106	+4	+1	-4	-7	+13	0.8
2030	32	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	605	534	127	27	2	22	58	141	8	6	1	238	322	419	741	182	276	23	10	315	101	+1	+1	-5	-6	+13	0.4
2031	33	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	522	460	105	22	1	18	50	124	7	4	1	228	313	398	711	170	270	24	10	307	95	-3	+0	-5	-6	+11	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5020	4426	1070	235	18	178	493	1123	67	81	14	242	327	424	751	182	283	22	10	326	100	+48	+11	-43	-59	+109	6.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	138	30	2	23	64	145	9	10	2	241	327	421	747	180	282	22	10	326	100	+6	+1	-6	-8	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6201	5482	1275	277	25	199	579	1407	95	98	22	233	317	401	718	169	275	23	9	316	100	+48	+11	-43	-59	+109	6.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	134	29	3	21	61	147	10	10	2	233	318	403	721	170	275	23	9	316	100	+6	+1	-6	-8	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	9.9	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
/162	664	32	7	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
#2Mark Reynoldslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,243 PA	9.4	6,243	298	64	236	328	453	-49	-105	16.0	16.3
/162	664	32	7	-5.2	-11.1	1.7	pk7: 17
#3Carlos Penalast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,856 PA	8.8	5,856	285	29	231	346	462	-98	-110	14.3	15.3
/162	664	32	3	-11.2	-12.5	1.6	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	9.0	5,957	203	96	239	321	415	-85	-74	13.2	12.6
/162	664	23	11	-9.5	-8.2	1.5	pk7: 12
#4Wil Myerslast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,290 PA	6.5	4,290	156	107	252	326	437	-47	-45	10.7	10.8
/162	664	24	17	-7.3	-6.9	1.7	pk7: 11
#5Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#6Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	5.2	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
/162	664	31	2	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Steer (OGILVIE)	28	45	45	55	55	242/325/419	177	283	20	9	22%	10%	111	+2.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Enrique Hernández 2020 · MLB	28	46→56	55→60	53→45	53	242/317/428	186	270	22	6	20%	9%	109	+2.0	239/312/414	175	272	19	4	19%	9%	105	+1.7	231/309/395	164	263	17	1	19%	9%	97	+0.7
●Connor Joe 2022 · MLB	29	48→51	52→50	45	55	246/336/415	169	290	20	4	22%	11%	114	+2.3	239/331/387	148	294	14	6	22%	11%	105	+1.7	235/331/379	145	291	12	5	22%	11%	102	+1.1
✕Alex Call 2023 · MLB	28	47→48	49→50	49→50	54	236/325/389	153	270	17	14	19%	10%	103	+1.6	226/322/359	133	266	13	15	19%	11%	96	+1.0	238/341/359	122	289	11	12	20%	12%	103	+0.8
●Harrison Bader 2022 · MLB	28	49→56	56→55	50→55	48	252/326/450	198	301	24	14	24%	8%	118	+2.7	242/292/377	135	285	15	24	20%	6%	88	+0.5	245/306/402	157	304	19	16	25%	6%	98	+0.7
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	44	54→55	52→50	50	228/313/419	191	297	21	13	30%	10%	106	+1.8	217/307/382	165	302	18	15	32%	10%	96	+1.0	189/286/327	139	279	15	16	35%	11%	73	-0.3
✕Izzy Alcantara 2002 · MLB	29	50	52→55	51→45	48	255/315/415	160	306	20	10	24%	8%	105	+1.7	249/302/416	167	295	21	10	23%	7%	101	+1.4	235/314/400	164	273	21	4	22%	9%	100	+0.5
✕Kyle Lewis 2023 · MLB	28	42→48	55	49→40	50	223/307/395	173	281	25	7	30%	10%	99	+1.2	247/315/421	174	320	23	5	29%	8%	107	+1.9	265/331/442	176	345	24	0	29%	8%	115	+1.4
✕Jason Rogers 2016 · MLB	28	51→53	50	49→45	49	258/319/417	159	302	18	4	21%	8%	107	+1.9	246/306/364	118	300	12	5	21%	8%	90	+0.6	241/301/340	98	295	10	3	21%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Aaron Altherr 2019 · MLB	28	44→52	50→55	48→50	49	221/306/379	158	293	17	10	29%	10%	95	+0.9	211/289/359	148	278	16	10	29%	9%	84	+0.1	154/230/295	141	190	15	10	28%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Pat O'Sullivan 2006 · AAA	29	49	53→50	50	44	250/304/429	180	306	21	13	25%	7%	105	+1.7	271/321/420	149	321	17	13	20%	6%	109	+2.0	291/339/429	138	338	16	12	18%	6%	116	+1.1
✕Casper Wells 2013 · MLB	28	44	54→60	48→50	47	231/305/418	188	286	21	8	27%	8%	103	+1.6	205/274/324	119	285	12	7	30%	8%	70	-0.9	126/185/146	21	186	0	0	30%	7%	-6	-1.1
✕Jake Fraley 2023 · MLB	28	47	53→55	51→55	56	241/339/409	168	299	22	15	26%	12%	114	+2.3	253/328/402	149	299	17	23	20%	9%	107	+1.9	253/327/392	138	298	15	27	19%	9%	101	+0.8
●Bubba Trammell 2001 · MLB	29	51→49	54→55	54→40	55	260/337/443	183	288	21	10	18%	10%	120	+2.8	253/329/438	185	268	23	4	15%	10%	116	+2.5	250/330/439	188	258	25	2	15%	10%	113	+1.9
✕Greg Bird 2021 · MLB	28	43→48	51→55	48→30	51	221/306/384	163	278	19	6	27%	10%	96	+1.0	205/276/351	146	267	18	4	29%	8%	77	-0.3	185/259/322	138	237	17	1	29%	8%	62	-0.8
●Scott Hairston 2008 · MLB	28	47→51	56→60	52→50	49	249/313/445	196	280	24	6	21%	8%	112	+2.2	247/307/439	192	280	23	9	21%	7%	109	+2.0	241/304/426	184	272	23	10	20%	7%	102	+0.9
✕Chris Heisey 2012 · MLB	27	47→52	55	50→55	45	246/305/426	180	286	24	11	23%	6%	105	+1.7	240/290/393	153	288	17	11	23%	5%	91	+0.7	234/280/375	141	280	14	11	22%	5%	81	-0.0
✕David Bote 2021 · MLB	28	46→49	54→50	48→45	51	236/325/416	179	297	22	9	27%	10%	110	+2.1	219/294/363	144	279	16	7	26%	8%	86	+0.3	222/290/366	144	290	14	8	27%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Alex Guerrero 2015 · AAA	28	49	54→60	55→45	40	252/291/435	183	295	21	9	23%	4%	101	+1.4	230/267/396	166	271	21	8	24%	4%	84	+0.1	232/262/427	196	265	28	3	25%	3%	89	+0.2
✕Tyrone Taylor 2022 · MLB	28	48→52	55→60	53→55	46	249/315/441	192	291	23	10	23%	7%	112	+2.2	242/296/437	195	287	22	12	24%	6%	104	+1.6	237/288/427	190	284	20	14	24%	5%	97	+0.6
✕Mike Brosseau 2022 · MLB	28	43→53	51→50	50→45	45	223/301/382	160	285	19	7	28%	8%	94	+0.9	221/297/363	142	286	19	6	28%	8%	88	+0.4	215/291/338	122	274	18	3	27%	7%	78	-0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps