Spencer Steer
LF Cincinnati Reds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | MLBCIN | 656 | .225/.320/.402 | 20 | 25 | 100 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLBCIN | 568 | .238/.313/.411 | 21 | 7 | 99 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLBCIN | 384 | .238/.319/.421 | 16 | 3 | 103 | 0.5 |
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBCIN | 190 | .240/.322/.422 | 7 | 3 | 105 | 0.3 |
| 2028PROJ | 30 | MLBCIN | 488 | .236/.318/.412 | 18 | 7 | 102 | 0.5 |
| 2029PROJ | 31 | MLBCIN | 475 | .230/.312/.399 | 17 | 3 | 97 | 0.1 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 201 | 173 | 45 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 28 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 260 | 360 | 387 | 747 | 127 | 299 | 14 | 9 | 339 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 280 | 249 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 20 | 73 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 241 | 310 | 470 | 780 | 229 | 274 | 26 | 7 | 336 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 208 | 168 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 274 | 411 | 506 | 917 | 232 | 283 | 15 | 17 | 404 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 108 | 95 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 306 | 326 | 632 | 116 | 269 | 24 | 10 | 292 | 80 | -3 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 336 | 290 | 75 | 17 | 1 | 15 | 37 | 66 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 259 | 356 | 479 | 836 | 221 | 284 | 20 | 11 | 368 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 156 | 137 | 42 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 307 | 387 | 591 | 978 | 285 | 318 | 15 | 9 | 422 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 665 | 582 | 158 | 37 | 3 | 23 | 68 | 139 | 11 | 15 | 3 | 271 | 359 | 464 | 822 | 192 | 318 | 21 | 10 | 363 | 127 | +22 | +2 | -14 | -12 | +14 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 656 | 574 | 129 | 34 | 4 | 20 | 72 | 137 | 8 | 25 | 3 | 225 | 320 | 402 | 722 | 178 | 260 | 21 | 11 | 323 | 100 | -0 | +4 | -6 | -7 | +14 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 568 | 509 | 121 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 51 | 129 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 238 | 313 | 411 | 724 | 173 | 277 | 23 | 9 | 322 | 99 | -1 | +1 | -2 | -10 | +12 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 384 | 340 | 81 | 14 | 0 | 16 | 35 | 86 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 238 | 319 | 421 | 740 | 182 | 271 | 22 | 9 | 329 | 103 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 2381 | 2100 | 509 | 111 | 9 | 82 | 237 | 517 | 32 | 50 | 8 | 242 | 328 | 421 | 749 | 179 | 283 | 22 | 10 | 334 | 112 | +34 | +7 | -25 | -31 | +52 | 3.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 201 | 178 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 39 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 300 | 320 | 620 | 107 | 253 | 19 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 280 | 255 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 90 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 200 | 255 | 369 | 624 | 169 | 238 | 32 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 208 | 179 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 43 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 223 | 329 | 419 | 747 | 196 | 235 | 21 | 12 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 108 | 95 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 306 | 326 | 632 | 116 | 269 | 24 | 10 | 287 | 80 | -3 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 336 | 302 | 65 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 83 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 215 | 290 | 351 | 641 | 136 | 265 | 25 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 156 | 141 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 241 | 310 | 454 | 764 | 213 | 260 | 19 | 6 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 665 | 582 | 157 | 38 | 3 | 21 | 68 | 139 | 11 | 15 | 3 | 270 | 357 | 454 | 811 | 184 | 318 | 21 | 10 | 357 | 127 | +22 | +2 | -14 | -12 | +14 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 656 | 575 | 129 | 35 | 4 | 19 | 71 | 137 | 8 | 25 | 3 | 224 | 318 | 398 | 716 | 174 | 260 | 21 | 11 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +4 | -6 | -7 | +14 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 568 | 509 | 119 | 21 | 2 | 19 | 51 | 129 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 234 | 310 | 395 | 705 | 161 | 277 | 23 | 9 | 315 | 99 | -1 | +1 | -2 | -10 | +12 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 384 | 341 | 80 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 86 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 235 | 317 | 408 | 724 | 173 | 271 | 22 | 9 | 321 | 103 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 201 | 178 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 39 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 300 | 320 | 620 | 107 | 261 | 19 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 201 | 173 | 45 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 28 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 260 | 360 | 387 | 747 | 127 | 299 | 14 | 9 | 339 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 488 | 434 | 89 | 14 | 3 | 19 | 38 | 133 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 205 | 283 | 382 | 665 | 177 | 242 | 27 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 488 | 417 | 106 | 18 | 3 | 24 | 55 | 105 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 254 | 353 | 484 | 838 | 230 | 278 | 22 | 11 | 365 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 600 | 538 | 121 | 31 | 2 | 17 | 46 | 138 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 225 | 302 | 385 | 686 | 160 | 269 | 23 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 600 | 522 | 137 | 35 | 2 | 25 | 62 | 115 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 262 | 355 | 481 | 836 | 218 | 291 | 19 | 10 | 368 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 665 | 582 | 157 | 38 | 3 | 21 | 68 | 139 | 11 | 15 | 3 | 270 | 357 | 454 | 811 | 184 | 319 | 21 | 10 | 357 | 127 | +22 | +2 | -14 | -12 | +14 | 1.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB RAW | Cincinnati Reds | — | 665 | 582 | 158 | 37 | 3 | 23 | 68 | 139 | 11 | 15 | 3 | 271 | 359 | 464 | 822 | 192 | 318 | 21 | 10 | 363 | 127 | +22 | +2 | -14 | -12 | +14 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 656 | 575 | 129 | 35 | 4 | 19 | 71 | 137 | 8 | 25 | 3 | 224 | 318 | 398 | 716 | 174 | 261 | 21 | 11 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +4 | -6 | -7 | +14 | 0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB RAW | Cincinnati Reds | — | 656 | 574 | 129 | 34 | 4 | 20 | 72 | 137 | 8 | 25 | 3 | 225 | 320 | 402 | 722 | 178 | 260 | 21 | 11 | 323 | 100 | -0 | +4 | -6 | -7 | +14 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 568 | 509 | 119 | 21 | 2 | 19 | 51 | 129 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 234 | 310 | 395 | 705 | 161 | 275 | 23 | 9 | 315 | 99 | -1 | +1 | -2 | -10 | +12 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB RAW | Cincinnati Reds | — | 568 | 509 | 121 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 51 | 129 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 238 | 313 | 411 | 724 | 173 | 277 | 23 | 9 | 322 | 99 | -1 | +1 | -2 | -10 | +12 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 384 | 341 | 80 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 86 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 235 | 317 | 408 | 724 | 173 | 269 | 22 | 9 | 321 | 103 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB RAW | Cincinnati Reds | — | 384 | 340 | 81 | 14 | 0 | 16 | 35 | 86 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 238 | 319 | 421 | 740 | 182 | 271 | 22 | 9 | 329 | 103 | +1 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 201 | 177 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 39 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 215 | 300 | 322 | 622 | 107 | 253 | 19 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 488 | 438 | 89 | 14 | 3 | 19 | 38 | 133 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 203 | 283 | 379 | 662 | 176 | 237 | 27 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 600 | 536 | 121 | 31 | 2 | 17 | 46 | 138 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 226 | 302 | 386 | 688 | 160 | 264 | 23 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 665 | 581 | 157 | 38 | 3 | 21 | 68 | 139 | 11 | 15 | 3 | 270 | 357 | 454 | 811 | 184 | 318 | 21 | 10 | 357 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 656 | 572 | 129 | 35 | 4 | 19 | 71 | 137 | 8 | 25 | 3 | 226 | 318 | 400 | 718 | 175 | 260 | 21 | 11 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 568 | 507 | 119 | 21 | 2 | 19 | 51 | 129 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 235 | 310 | 396 | 706 | 162 | 277 | 23 | 9 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 384 | 340 | 80 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 86 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 235 | 317 | 409 | 726 | 174 | 271 | 22 | 9 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 656 | 572 | 129 | 35 | 4 | 19 | 71 | 137 | 8 | 25 | 3 | 226 | 318 | 400 | 718 | 175 | 260 | 21 | 11 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 568 | 507 | 119 | 21 | 2 | 19 | 51 | 129 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 235 | 310 | 396 | 706 | 162 | 277 | 23 | 9 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 384 | 340 | 80 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 86 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 235 | 317 | 409 | 726 | 174 | 271 | 22 | 9 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 429 | 380 | 89 | 17 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 95 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 237 | 319 | 409 | 729 | 173 | 273 | 22 | 10 | 324 | 105 | +3 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +9 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 190 | 168 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 322 | 422 | 744 | 182 | 274 | 22 | 9 | 330 | 105 | +1 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +4 | 0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 488 | 433 | 101 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 46 | 109 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 233 | 315 | 400 | 715 | 167 | 270 | 22 | 9 | 318 | 102 | +1 | +1 | -2 | -5 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 475 | 423 | 96 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 44 | 108 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 309 | 388 | 697 | 160 | 265 | 23 | 9 | 311 | 97 | -2 | +0 | -3 | -5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 488 | 433 | 102 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 46 | 109 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 236 | 318 | 412 | 729 | 176 | 271 | 22 | 9 | 324 | 102 | +1 | +1 | -2 | -5 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 475 | 423 | 97 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 108 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 312 | 399 | 711 | 169 | 267 | 23 | 9 | 317 | 97 | -2 | +0 | -3 | -5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3344 | 2956 | 708 | 148 | 11 | 117 | 327 | 734 | 43 | 60 | 11 | 240 | 324 | 416 | 740 | 176 | 279 | 22 | 10 | 330 | 99 | +33 | +8 | -30 | -41 | +72 | 4.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 575 | 138 | 29 | 2 | 23 | 64 | 143 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 240 | 325 | 417 | 742 | 177 | 279 | 22 | 10 | 330 | 99 | +6 | +1 | -6 | -8 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4715 | 4181 | 971 | 207 | 19 | 152 | 431 | 1060 | 73 | 80 | 20 | 232 | 315 | 400 | 715 | 168 | 273 | 22 | 9 | 315 | 99 | +34 | +8 | -31 | -43 | +77 | 4.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 135 | 29 | 3 | 21 | 59 | 146 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 234 | 316 | 405 | 721 | 170 | 276 | 22 | 9 | 315 | 99 | +6 | +1 | -6 | -8 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAALouisville Bats · 336 PAwOBA .359 → .287 (−73)K% 19.6% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.64% | ÷0.958 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | ×1.012 | ×1.033 | 18.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.59% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×1.033 | 6.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.012 | ×1.033 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.70% | ÷1.282 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .359 → .287; ISO .221 → .147; BABIP .284 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAWichita Wind Surge · 156 PAwOBA .412 → .331 (−82)K% 14.7% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.74% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.97% | ÷0.991 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 2.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.54% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 15.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.40% | ÷1.001 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 9.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.02% | ÷0.985 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.69% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .412 → .331; ISO .285 → .227; BABIP .318 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAWichita Wind Surge · 280 PAwOBA .332 → .264 (−68)K% 26.1% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.07% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.79% | ÷0.950 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 4.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷0.989 | ×0.940 | ×0.951 | ×1.012 | 17.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | ×0.951 | ×1.012 | 5.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷0.908 | ×0.920 | ×0.951 | ×1.012 | 1.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.95% | ÷1.104 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 5.69% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 82, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .332 → .264; ISO .229 → .168; BABIP .274 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 208 PAwOBA .396 → .320 (−76)K% 15.4% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.992 | ×1.350 | — | — | 20.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.83% | ÷1.026 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 11.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.59% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 17.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.15% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.35% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 6.56% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .396 → .320; ISO .232 → .205; BABIP .283 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 201 PAwOBA .332 → .265 (−67)K% 13.9% → 19.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.93% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.45% | ÷0.960 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.98% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 17.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.28% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 6.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.38% | ÷1.045 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.38% | ÷0.997 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.11% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 109, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .332 → .265; ISO .127 → .101; BABIP .299 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).