Spencer Steer

LF Cincinnati Reds
Age 29 R/R 5'9" / 185 lbs MLB HR +16%BB +6% Svc 4.203 · Ctrl thru 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
Overview
MLBIL-6040-MANArb-2FA 2029
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202426MLBCIN656.225/.320/.40220251000.5
202527MLBCIN568.238/.313/.411217990.0
202628MLBCIN384.238/.319/.4211631030.5
2027PROJ29MLBCIN190.240/.322/.422731050.3
2028PROJ30MLBCIN488.236/.318/.4121871020.5
2029PROJ31MLBCIN475.230/.312/.399173970.1
Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2028Service4.203First FA2029
2027Arb-2$2M2028Arb-3$5M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Speed76
xwOBA57
Barrel%51
Bat Spd48
Avg EV37
CompsPat O'Sullivan (age 29) · Izzy Alcantara (age 29) · Alex Call (age 28)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 108105vR 97
AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .322 / .422
PA190
HR7
K%22
BB%9
BABIP274
ISO179
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +1.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+1BATRUN: +0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -2.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +4.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
0.00.51.00.50.527282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT45
xAVG
260.232
POWER45
Barrel%
518.3
Avg EV
3788.2
Bat Spd
4871.2
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED55
Sprint
7628.5
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1315 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
325
990
—
wRC+
101
103
—
wOBA
318
321
—
ISO
180
176
—
BABIP
259
273
▶R
K%
21.8%
22.4%
—
BB%
10.8%
9.4%
◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-2
MLB Debut   2022
Service   4.203 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2029
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-2$2M+0.5$2M+$0.3M
2028Arb-3$5M+0.5$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $2M $4M +$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201921 ACedar Rapids Kernels — 201173 451222 19288 51 260360387747 127299 149 339 65 — — — — — —
202123 AAWichita Wind Surge — 280249 6011214 20735 40 241310470780 229274 267 336 65 — — — — — —
202123 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 208168 467110 35324 44 274411506917 232283 1517 404 103 — — — — — —
202224 MLBCincinnati Reds — 10895 20502 11262 01 211306326632 116269 2410 292 80 -3 -0 -1 +2 +2 0.1
202224 AAALouisville Bats — 336290 7517115 37667 30 259356479836 221284 2011 368 80 — — — — — —
202224 AAWichita Wind Surge — 156137 421318 14234 13 307387591978 285318 159 422 110 — — — — — —
202325 MLBCincinnati Reds — 665582 15837323 6813911 153 271359464822 192318 2110 363 127 +22 +2 -14 -12 +14 1.2
202426 MLBCincinnati Reds — 656574 12934420 721378 253 225320402722 178260 2111 323 100 -0 +4 -6 -7 +14 0.5
202527 MLBCincinnati Reds — 568509 12121221 511295 71 238313411724 173277 239 322 99 -1 +1 -2 -10 +12 0.0
202628 MLBCincinnati Reds — 384340 8114016 35866 30 238319421740 182271 229 329 103 +1 +1 -1 -4 +8 0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 23812100 509111982 23751732 508 242328421749 179283 2210 334 112 +34 +7 -25 -31 +52 3.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201921 A MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 201178 38922 14398 51 213300320620 107253 197 265 65 — — — — — —
202123 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 280255 519210 14905 40 200255369624 169238 325 264 65 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 208179 40619 24434 44 223329419747 196235 2112 320 103 — — — — — —
202224 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 10895 20502 11262 01 211306326632 116269 2410 287 80 -3 -0 -1 +2 +2 0.1
202224 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 336302 651518 25837 30 215290351641 136265 257 287 80 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 156141 341016 10294 13 241310454764 213260 196 331 110 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 665582 15738321 6813911 153 270357454811 184318 2110 357 127 +22 +2 -14 -12 +14 1.2
202426 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 656575 12935419 711378 253 224318398716 174260 2111 316 100 -0 +4 -6 -7 +14 0.5
202527 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 568509 11921219 511295 71 234310395705 161277 239 315 99 -1 +1 -2 -10 +12 0.0
202628 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 384341 8014015 35866 30 235317408724 173271 229 321 103 +1 +1 -1 -4 +8 0.5
201921 A MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 201178 38922 14398 51 213300320620 107261 197 265 65 — — — — — —
201921 A RAWCedar Rapids Kernels — 201173 451222 19288 51 260360387747 127299 149 339 65 — — — — — —
202123 AA MLE2 teams — 488434 8914319 381339 84 205283382665 177242 278 288 81 — — — — — —
202123 AA RAW2 teams — 488417 10618324 551059 84 254353484838 230278 2211 365 81 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLE3 teams — 600538 12131217 4613813 44 225302385686 160269 238 298 88 — — — — — —
202224 AAA RAW3 teams — 600522 13735225 6211513 44 262355481836 218291 1910 368 88 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 665582 15738321 6813911 153 270357454811 184319 2110 357 127 +22 +2 -14 -12 +14 1.2
202325 MLB RAWCincinnati Reds — 665582 15837323 6813911 153 271359464822 192318 2110 363 127 +22 +2 -14 -12 +14 1.2
202426 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 656575 12935419 711378 253 224318398716 174261 2111 316 100 -0 +4 -6 -7 +14 0.5
202426 MLB RAWCincinnati Reds — 656574 12934420 721378 253 225320402722 178260 2111 323 100 -0 +4 -6 -7 +14 0.5
202527 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 568509 11921219 511295 71 234310395705 161275 239 315 99 -1 +1 -2 -10 +12 0.0
202527 MLB RAWCincinnati Reds — 568509 12121221 511295 71 238313411724 173277 239 322 99 -1 +1 -2 -10 +12 0.0
202628 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 384341 8014015 35866 30 235317408724 173269 229 321 103 +1 +1 -1 -4 +8 0.5
202628 MLB RAWCincinnati Reds — 384340 8114016 35866 30 238319421740 182271 229 329 103 +1 +1 -1 -4 +8 0.5
201921 A MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 201177 38922 14398 51 215300322622 107253 197 265 65 — — — — — —
202123 AA MLE2 teams — 488438 8914319 381339 84 203283379662 176237 278 288 81 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLE3 teams — 600536 12131217 4613813 44 226302386688 160264 238 298 88 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 665581 15738321 6813911 153 270357454811 184318 2110 357 127 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 656572 12935419 711378 253 226318400718 175260 2111 316 100 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 568507 11921219 511295 71 235310396706 162277 239 315 99 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 384340 8014015 35866 30 235317409726 174271 229 321 103 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 656572 12935419 711378 253 226318400718 175260 2111 316 100 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 568507 11921219 511295 71 235310396706 162277 239 315 99 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 384340 8014015 35866 30 235317409726 174271 229 321 103 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLECIN 100% 429380 8917115 41955 82 237319409729 173273 2210 324 105 +3 +1 -0 -5 +9 0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXCIN 100% 190168 40717 18422 31 240322422744 182274 229 330 105 +1 +0 -0 -2 +4 0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLECIN 100% 488433 10119117 461096 72 233315400715 167270 229 318 102 +1 +1 -2 -5 +11 0.5
202931 MLB MLECIN 100% 475423 9618116 441085 31 227309388697 160265 239 311 97 -2 +0 -3 -5 +10 0.1
202830 MLB CTXCIN 100% 488433 10219118 461096 72 236318412729 176271 229 324 102 +1 +1 -2 -5 +11 0.5
202931 MLB CTXCIN 100% 475423 9718117 441085 31 230312399711 169267 239 317 97 -2 +0 -3 -5 +10 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 33442956 70814811117 32773443 6011 240324416740 176279 2210 330 99 +33 +8 -30 -41 +72 4.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650575 13829223 641438 122 240325417742 177279 2210 330 99 +6 +1 -6 -8 +14 0.8
Career— MLE — 47154181 97120719152 431106073 8020 232315400715 168273 229 315 99 +34 +8 -31 -43 +77 4.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650576 13529321 5914610 113 234316405721 170276 229 315 99 +6 +1 -6 -8 +14 0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 336 PAwOBA .359 → .287 (−73)K% 19.6% → 24.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.64%÷0.958×1.200——24.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.71%÷1.023×0.690—×1.0337.46%
HBP% /PA2.08%—×0.940—×1.0332.02%
Singles /BIP18.75%÷0.996×0.930×1.012×1.03318.31%
Doubles /BIP7.59%÷0.955×0.830×1.012×1.0336.90%
Triples /BIP0.45%÷0.900×0.970×1.012×1.0330.50%
Home runs /BIP6.70%÷1.282×0.700—×1.0333.78%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .359 → .287; ISO .221 → .147; BABIP .284 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAWichita Wind Surge · 156 PAwOBA .412 → .331 (−82)K% 14.7% → 18.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.74%÷0.958×1.220——18.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.97%÷0.991×0.700—×0.9986.32%
HBP% /PA2.56%—×0.870—×0.9982.23%
Singles /BIP17.54%÷1.018×0.920×0.950×0.99815.04%
Doubles /BIP11.40%÷1.001×0.840×0.950×0.9989.07%
Triples /BIP0.88%÷1.150×0.940×0.950×0.9980.68%
Home runs /BIP7.02%÷0.985×0.800—×0.9985.69%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .412 → .331; ISO .285 → .227; BABIP .318 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAWichita Wind Surge · 280 PAwOBA .332 → .264 (−68)K% 26.1% → 32.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.07%÷0.994×1.220——31.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.79%÷0.950×0.690—×1.0124.99%
HBP% /PA1.79%—×0.850—×1.0121.54%
Singles /BIP18.75%÷0.989×0.940×0.951×1.01217.15%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷1.040×0.870×0.951×1.0125.03%
Triples /BIP1.14%÷0.908×0.920×0.951×1.0121.11%
Home runs /BIP7.95%÷1.104×0.780—×1.0125.69%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 82, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .332 → .264; ISO .229 → .168; BABIP .274 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 208 PAwOBA .396 → .320 (−76)K% 15.4% → 20.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.38%÷0.992×1.350——20.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.83%÷1.026×0.710—×0.98811.50%
HBP% /PA1.92%—×0.810—×0.9881.54%
Singles /BIP20.59%÷1.012×0.910×0.950×0.98817.38%
Doubles /BIP5.15%÷0.976×0.830×0.950×0.9884.11%
Triples /BIP0.74%÷0.900×0.820×0.950×0.9880.63%
Home runs /BIP7.35%÷0.920×0.830—×0.9886.56%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .396 → .320; ISO .232 → .205; BABIP .283 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 201 PAwOBA .332 → .265 (−67)K% 13.9% → 19.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.93%÷0.968×1.360——19.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.45%÷0.960×0.690——6.80%
HBP% /PA3.98%—×0.780——3.10%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.007×0.920×0.950—17.35%
Doubles /BIP8.28%÷0.976×0.830×0.950—6.68%
Triples /BIP1.38%÷1.045×0.910×0.950—1.14%
Home runs /BIP1.38%÷0.997×0.800——1.11%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 109, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .332 → .265; ISO .127 → .101; BABIP .299 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).