Spencer Steer — OGILVIE

Spencer Steer1B Cincinnati Reds

Age 28 R/R 5'9" / 185 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 3.203 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION358 act + 238 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 106108vR 115

AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .330 / .437

PA238

HR9

K%22

BB%10

BABIP287

ISO190

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

807.9%

xwOBA

570.317

POWER45

Barrel%

508.2

Avg EV

3788.1

Bat Spd

4871.2

EYE55

Chase%

9022.2%

SPEED55

Sprint

7628.5

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1315 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

325

990

—

wRC+

102

104

—

wOBA

318

321

—

ISO

180

176

—

BABIP

259

273

▶R

21.8%

22.4%

—

BB%

10.8%

9.4%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.203 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2027	Arb-2	$9M	+2.4	$18M	+$10M
2028	Arb-3	$12M	+2.0	$14M	+$4M
Totals		$22M		$35M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	201	178	38	10	2	2	14	41	8	5	1	213	300	326	626	112	265	20	7	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	201	173	45	12	2	2	19	28	8	5	1	260	360	387	747	127	299	14	9	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	2 teams	—	488	434	89	14	3	20	38	139	9	8	4	205	283	389	672	184	245	28	8	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	2 teams	—	488	417	106	18	3	24	55	105	9	8	4	254	353	484	838	230	278	22	11	365	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	3 teams	—	600	539	119	31	2	17	45	145	13	4	4	221	296	380	677	160	268	24	8	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	3 teams	—	600	522	137	35	2	25	62	115	13	4	4	262	355	481	836	218	291	19	10	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	665	582	154	35	3	22	68	139	11	15	3	265	352	448	801	184	311	21	10	352	127	+20	+2	-14	-12	+19	1.5
2023	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	665	582	158	37	3	23	68	139	11	15	3	271	359	464	822	192	318	21	10	363	136	+27	+2	-14	-12	+19	2.2
2024	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	656	574	126	33	4	19	72	137	8	25	3	220	315	390	705	171	255	21	11	312	97	-2	+4	-6	-7	+19	0.7
2024	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	656	574	129	34	4	20	72	137	8	25	3	225	320	402	722	178	260	21	11	323	106	+4	+4	-6	-7	+19	1.4
2025	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	568	509	118	20	2	20	51	129	5	7	1	232	308	397	705	165	271	23	9	311	96	-2	+1	-2	-10	+16	0.2
2025	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	568	509	121	21	2	21	51	129	5	7	1	238	313	411	724	173	277	23	9	322	105	+3	+1	-2	-10	+16	0.8
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	MLB	CIN	—	358	317	78	13	0	14	34	80	5	3	0	246	329	420	748	174	284	22	9	330	111	+4	+1	-1	-4	+10	1.0
YTD	28	MLB	CIN	—	358	316	78	13	0	14	34	80	5	3	0	247	329	421	750	174	286	22	9	333	113	+5	+1	-1	-4	+10	1.1
ROS	28	MLB	CIN	100%	238	210	52	11	1	9	23	53	3	4	1	247	330	437	766	190	285	22	10	336	116	+4	+0	+2	-4	+7	1.0
ROS	28	MLB	CIN	100%	239	211	52	11	1	9	23	53	3	4	1	246	329	436	765	190	288	22	10	331	111	+3	+0	+2	-4	+7	0.8
FULL	28	MLB	CIN	—	597	528	130	24	1	23	57	133	8	7	1	246	329	426	755	180	285	22	10	330	111	+7	+1	+1	-8	+17	1.9
TOT	28	MLB	CIN	—	596	527	130	24	1	23	57	133	8	7	1	246	329	426	755	180	286	22	10	332	113	+8	+1	+1	-8	+17	2.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	CIN	100%	643	567	138	30	2	23	63	143	8	10	2	243	328	425	753	182	284	22	10	334	114	+10	+1	+5	-11	+18	2.3
2028	30	MLB	CIN	100%	630	555	134	29	2	22	62	142	8	8	1	241	326	420	746	178	282	23	10	331	111	+8	+1	+4	-11	+18	2.0
2029	31	MLB	CIN	100%	617	543	129	28	2	21	61	141	8	7	1	238	324	413	736	175	278	23	10	326	108	+5	+1	+3	-11	+17	1.6
2030	32	MLB	CIN	100%	605	534	124	26	2	20	59	140	7	6	1	232	317	401	717	169	273	23	10	319	102	+2	+1	+2	-11	+17	1.1
2031	33	MLB	CIN	100%	522	460	103	21	1	17	51	124	6	4	1	224	309	385	694	161	267	24	10	311	96	-2	+0	+1	-9	+15	0.4
2032	34	MLB	CIN	100%	456	404	86	17	1	14	44	111	5	2	0	213	298	364	662	151	258	24	10	300	88	-6	+0	-1	-8	+13	-0.2
2027	29	MLB	CIN	100%	643	567	139	30	2	24	63	143	8	10	2	245	329	432	761	187	287	22	10	329	110	+7	+1	+5	-11	+18	2.0
2028	30	MLB	CIN	100%	630	555	135	29	2	23	62	142	8	8	1	243	328	427	755	184	285	23	10	326	107	+5	+1	+4	-11	+18	1.7
2029	31	MLB	CIN	100%	617	543	131	28	2	22	61	141	8	7	1	241	327	422	749	180	281	23	10	321	104	+3	+1	+3	-11	+17	1.3
2030	32	MLB	CIN	100%	605	534	126	27	2	21	59	140	7	6	1	236	320	412	732	176	276	23	10	314	98	-1	+1	+2	-11	+17	0.9
2031	33	MLB	CIN	100%	522	460	104	22	1	17	51	124	6	4	1	226	311	389	701	163	269	24	10	305	92	-5	+0	+1	-9	+15	0.2
2032	34	MLB	CIN	100%	456	404	87	17	1	14	44	111	5	2	0	215	300	366	667	151	261	24	10	295	84	-8	+0	-1	-8	+13	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5709	5034	1202	261	20	196	565	1285	71	88	15	239	324	415	740	177	281	23	10	323	106	+36	+12	-7	-93	+162	11.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	137	30	2	22	64	146	8	10	2	239	324	414	737	175	282	22	10	323	106	+4	+1	-1	-11	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	6889	6089	1410	305	27	226	651	1584	99	105	23	232	316	402	718	170	274	23	9	317	101	+6	+12	-7	-105	+195	10.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	133	29	3	21	61	149	9	10	2	231	314	402	716	170	275	23	9	317	101	+1	+1	-1	-10	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	201	173	45	12	2	2	19	28	8	5	1	260	360	387	747	127	299	14	9	339	118	+4	+1	—	—	+6	1.1
2021	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	280	249	60	11	2	14	20	73	5	4	0	241	310	470	780	229	274	26	7	336	115	+5	+1	—	—	+8	1.4
2021	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	208	168	46	7	1	10	35	32	4	4	4	274	411	506	917	232	283	15	17	404	168	+16	-1	—	—	+6	2.1
2022	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	108	95	20	5	0	2	11	26	2	0	1	211	306	326	632	116	269	24	10	292	81	-2	-0	-1	+2	+3	0.2
2022	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	336	290	75	17	1	15	37	66	7	3	0	259	356	479	836	221	284	20	11	368	140	+15	+1	—	—	+10	2.6
2022	24	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	156	137	42	13	1	8	14	23	4	1	3	307	387	591	978	285	318	15	9	422	181	+14	-1	—	—	+4	1.8
2023	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	665	582	158	37	3	23	68	139	11	15	3	271	359	464	822	192	318	21	10	363	136	+27	+2	-14	-12	+19	2.2
2024	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	656	574	129	34	4	20	72	137	8	25	3	225	320	402	722	178	260	21	11	323	106	+4	+4	-6	-7	+19	1.4
2025	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	568	509	121	21	2	21	51	129	5	7	1	238	313	411	724	173	277	23	9	322	105	+3	+1	-2	-10	+16	0.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1997	1760	428	97	9	66	202	431	26	47	8	243	330	421	751	178	285	22	10	335	114	+32	+6	-24	-27	+57	4.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Carlos Penalast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,856 PA	13	5,856	285	29	231	346	462	-98	-110	14.2	15.3
	/162	664	32	3	231	346	462	-11.2	-12.5	1.6	pk7: 16
#2Adam LaRochelast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,329 PA	12	6,329	255	13	260	336	462	-113	-125	10.7	12.1
	/162	664	27	1	260	336	462	-11.9	-13.1	1.1	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	6,424	218	101	239	321	413	-115	-81	11.8	11.3
	/162	664	22	10	239	321	413	-11.9	-8.3	1.2	pk7: 11
#3Chris Davislast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,630 PA	13	5,630	295	19	233	315	459	-96	-102	6.3	9.8
	/162	664	35	2	233	315	459	-11.3	-12.0	0.7	pk7: 13
#4Mitch Morelandlast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,536 PA	12	4,536	186	11	251	318	446	-81	-56	5.9	6.1
	/162	664	27	2	251	318	446	-11.9	-8.1	0.9	pk7: 6
#5Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	8	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
	/162	664	31	2	238	315	455	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#6Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	11	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.8
	/162	664	27	0	229	322	419	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Steer (OGILVIE)	28	45	45	55	55	246/329/426	180	286	23	7	22%	10%	113	+2.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alex Call 2023 · MLB	28	47→49	51→50	49→50	54	240/329/406	165	272	19	14	19%	10%	111	+2.5	228/324/367	139	267	15	15	19%	11%	98	+1.6	240/342/371	131	288	13	13	20%	12%	105	+1.0
✕Jason Rogers 2016 · MLB	28	51→53	52→55	49→45	49	260/320/430	170	304	20	4	22%	8%	112	+2.6	255/313/390	135	306	15	5	21%	8%	98	+1.6	254/312/374	120	304	14	3	20%	7%	90	+0.6
✕Aaron Altherr 2019 · MLB	28	44→52	51→55	48→50	49	221/306/383	162	293	18	10	30%	10%	95	+1.4	212/290/367	155	277	17	10	29%	9%	84	+0.6	156/234/314	158	186	18	10	28%	7%	46	-0.5
●Harrison Bader 2022 · MLB	28	48→56	55	50→55	48	250/324/441	191	300	22	14	24%	8%	118	+3.0	240/290/374	134	283	15	24	20%	6%	85	+0.7	242/304/399	157	300	20	16	25%	6%	96	+0.9
●Enrique Hernández 2020 · MLB	28	47→57	56→60	52→45	53	248/322/445	197	274	24	6	20%	9%	118	+3.0	239/312/415	176	271	20	4	19%	9%	105	+2.1	230/304/375	145	264	15	2	19%	9%	90	+0.8
✕Chris Heisey 2013 · MLB	28	49→52	51→55	50→55	43	250/305/411	161	301	19	10	24%	6%	102	+1.8	226/282/387	161	268	19	10	23%	6%	85	+0.7	198/274/383	185	226	26	8	26%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Greg Bird 2021 · MLB	28	43→50	51→55	48→30	51	221/306/385	164	278	19	6	27%	10%	95	+1.4	200/270/350	150	261	19	4	30%	8%	71	-0.3	177/249/320	143	226	18	1	30%	8%	53	-0.9
●Chas McCormick 2022 · MLB	27	47→51	52→55	48→55	47	243/313/407	164	307	21	11	28%	8%	104	+2.0	245/322/409	164	312	21	14	27%	9%	108	+2.3	239/319/393	154	302	20	17	26%	9%	101	+1.2
✕Casper Wells 2013 · MLB	28	45→46	55→60	48→50	47	236/310/435	199	289	22	8	26%	8%	110	+2.4	205/271/325	120	286	12	7	31%	8%	65	-0.7	125/185/145	20	185	0	0	30%	7%	-21	-1.1
●Bubba Trammell 2001 · MLB	29	51→49	54→55	54→40	55	260/337/443	183	288	21	10	18%	10%	123	+3.3	253/329/438	185	268	23	4	15%	10%	118	+3.0	250/330/439	188	258	25	2	15%	10%	115	+2.3
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	43→41	54→55	52→50	50	221/307/408	188	288	21	13	30%	10%	102	+1.8	208/299/363	155	294	17	15	32%	10%	87	+0.8	177/275/304	127	268	13	16	36%	10%	59	-0.5
●Connor Joe 2022 · MLB	29	46→52	51→50	45	54	234/325/395	161	277	19	4	22%	11%	106	+2.2	230/323/370	140	284	13	6	22%	11%	98	+1.6	228/325/366	138	284	11	5	22%	11%	96	+1.1
✕David Bote 2021 · MLB	28	46→48	53→55	48→45	51	234/322/409	175	295	21	9	27%	10%	108	+2.3	219/293/364	145	278	16	7	26%	8%	85	+0.7	225/292/380	155	289	17	8	27%	7%	85	+0.4
●Scott Van Slyke 2014 · MLB	28	47→54	53→55	46→50	50	239/317/419	180	299	21	9	27%	10%	108	+2.3	252/333/427	175	324	20	10	27%	9%	118	+3.0	259/340/428	169	330	19	8	25%	9%	116	+1.0
✕Kyle Lewis 2023 · MLB	28	42→52	54→55	49→40	50	224/306/395	171	282	24	7	29%	10%	98	+1.6	242/307/411	169	318	22	5	29%	8%	102	+1.9	254/317/423	169	336	23	0	30%	8%	106	+1.2
✕Mike Brosseau 2022 · MLB	28	44→54	52→55	50→45	45	227/304/394	167	288	21	7	28%	8%	97	+1.5	225/301/378	153	289	21	6	29%	8%	92	+1.2	218/297/354	136	277	20	3	28%	8%	82	+0.2
✕Nolan Reimold 2012 · MLB	28	44→54	49→60	50	51	227/306/375	148	265	18	11	22%	9%	92	+1.2	226/287/385	159	282	20	8	27%	7%	87	+0.8	234/310/359	125	308	13	5	27%	9%	87	+0.4
✕Ben Francisco 2010 · MLB	28	51→56	51→55	47→55	50	256/321/424	168	291	18	14	19%	8%	111	+2.5	246/318/398	152	282	15	12	18%	8%	103	+1.9	240/312/377	136	278	13	10	18%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Gregory Polanco 2020 · MLB	28	48→55	55→60	53→55	51	248/321/440	193	293	21	12	23%	10%	115	+2.8	220/290/396	176	280	22	16	29%	9%	92	+1.2	201/272/370	169	252	22	19	29%	8%	73	-0.1
●Jeff Bailey 2007 · AAA	28	44→49	53→55	45	47	231/307/403	172	284	21	4	26%	8%	101	+1.8	231/312/398	167	280	20	7	24%	9%	102	+1.8	228/314/394	167	271	20	6	23%	9%	97	+1.2