Bryan De La Cruz

RF Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 30 R/R 6'0" / 175 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 3.701 · Ctrl thru 2029
Overview
AAA40-MANArb-1FA 2030
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202427INTLToros del Este49.286/.375/.40512121—
202427MLBPIT622.233/.272/.38421584-1.2
202528AAA/INTL2 orgs599.274/.348/.457231285—.204/.255/.309
202528MLBATL50.191/.240/.2130130-1.0
202629AAAPHI356.269/.360/.44812172—.214/.280/.334
202629MLBPHI86.280/.357/.41320114-0.1
2027PROJ45% MLB30MLBPHI182.239/.295/.3856288-0.0
2028PROJ31MLBPHI386.235/.289/.37412183-0.6
Last 3 seasons WAR -2.4  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2029Service3.701First FA2030
2027Arb-1$0.4M2028Arb-2$0.4M2029Ext$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Speed58
Avg EV57
Bat Spd55
Barrel%53
xwOBA44
Form.238/.303/.364 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .237/.291/.377
CompsDavid Bote (age 30) · Jerad Head (age 30) · Andy Marte (age 30)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 9288vR 75
AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .295 / .385
PA182
HR6
K%27
BB%7
BABIP300
ISO150
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +0.7 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -4.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-4POSREP: +8.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT45
xAVG
340.238
POWER50
Barrel%
538.7
Avg EV
5789.6
Bat Spd
5571.8
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED55
Sprint
5827.8
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%24%▲▲21% over 38 PA (60d) · proj 27%
BB%8%▲▲13% over 38 PA (60d) · proj 7%
ISO.127▼.061 over 33 AB (60d) · proj .140
BABIP.298·.240 over 25 BIP (60d) · proj .299
SLASH.238/.303/.364·proj .237/.291/.377
Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 659 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
188
471
—
wRC+
102
68
◀◀L
wOBA
319
268
◀◀L
ISO
140
143
—
BABIP
362
261
◀◀L
K%
25.0%
29.1%
◀L
BB%
3.2%
5.3%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2021
Service   3.701 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2030
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$0.4M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Arb-2$0.4M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201417 ROKDSL Astros Blue — 227183 48511 34515 63 262392317709 55351 2215 329 39 — — — — — —
201518 ROKGCL Astros — 169149 36210 14412 26 242315268584 27330 248 268 19 — — — — — —
201619 ROKGreeneville Astros — 10792 23343 14230 00 250349467816 217303 2113 356 55 — — — — — —
201720 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 3228 5201 271 00 179258357615 179190 226 268 43 — — — — — —
201720 AQuad Cities River Bandits — 4037 10200 370 11 270325324649 54333 188 298 52 — — — — — —
201821 A+Buies Creek Astros — 213182 541110 27412 72 297393368761 71378 1913 348 76 — — — — — —
201821 AQuad Cities River Bandits — 264237 671132 24561 35 283351380731 97359 219 329 68 — — — — — —
201922 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 300269 761444 24602 75 283346409755 126343 208 333 71 — — — — — —
201922 A+Fayetteville Woodpeckers — 183163 451424 16331 51 276344460805 184318 189 350 63 — — — — — —
201922 INTLToros del Este — 1817 5110 030 00 294294471765 176333 170 312 97 — — — — — —
202023 INTLToros del Este — 1716 7000 140 00 438471438908 583 246 414 166 — — — — — —
202124 MLBMiami Marlins — 219199 59725 18531 11 296358427785 131380 248 350 128 +7 -0 -2 +2 +5 1.2
202124 AAASugar Land Skeeters — 293272 8817012 17591 24 324366518884 195373 206 385 103 — — — — — —
202124 INTLToros del Este — 6962 14401 5121 00 226294339633 113260 177 284 78 — — — — — —
202225 MLBMiami Marlins — 355329 8320013 19902 40 252296432728 179304 255 317 110 +4 +1 -6 +2 +8 0.9
202225 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 5450 16304 4130 10 320370620990 300364 247 428 103 — — — — — —
202225 INTLToros del Este — 136124 29711 11321 11 234301331632 97308 248 288 81 — — — — — —
202326 MLBMiami Marlins — 626579 14932019 401421 41 257306411717 154307 236 316 108 +6 +0 -11 -7 +14 0.3
202427 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 622584 13625021 291703 52 233272384656 151289 275 289 84 -12 +0 -6 -7 +13 -1.2
202427 INTLToros del Este — 4942 12201 660 20 286375405780 119306 1212 347 121 — — — — — —
202528 MLBAtlanta Braves — 5047 9100 3180 10 191240213453 21310 366 212 30 -4 +0 -0 -7 +1 -1.0
202528 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 411369 9715115 351034 81 263333431764 168323 259 339 57 — — — — — —
202528 INTLToros del Este — 188163 49918 19362 40 301380515896 215333 1910 386 147 — — — — — —
202629 MLBPhiladelphia Phillies — 8675 21402 7182 00 280357413770 133333 218 340 114 +1 +0 +0 -5 +2 -0.1
202629 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs — 356308 8319012 44740 11 269360448808 179316 2112 357 72 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 19581813 45789260 1164919 154 252300403702 151310 256 310 96 -10 +1 -25 -22 +42 -1.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201417 ROK MLEDSL Astros Blue — 227194 33310 23625 63 170275196471 26237 2710 226 39 — — — — — —
201518 ROK MLEGCL Astros — 169154 28110 9592 26 182236201438 19283 355 197 19 — — — — — —
201619 ROK MLEGreeneville Astros — 10797 17232 9330 00 175245320565 144239 318 249 55 — — — — — —
201720 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 3229 5201 191 00 172226345571 172176 283 232 43 — — — — — —
201720 A MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 4038 9200 290 11 237275289564 53304 225 245 52 — — — — — —
201821 A+ MLEBuies Creek Astros — 213193 491010 16592 72 254318316634 62349 288 281 76 — — — — — —
201821 A MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 264245 59832 16781 35 241290322613 82338 306 269 68 — — — — — —
201922 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 300276 661243 16762 75 239285344629 105302 255 273 71 — — — — — —
201922 A+ MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 183169 361014 10481 51 213261355616 142257 265 262 63 — — — — — —
202124 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 219200 61825 17531 11 305362440802 135380 248 357 128 +7 -0 -2 +2 +5 1.2
202124 AAA MLESugar Land Skeeters — 293277 771509 12711 24 278310430740 152337 244 321 103 — — — — — —
202225 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 355330 8722014 19902 40 264308458765 194304 255 330 110 +4 +1 -6 +2 +8 0.9
202225 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 5451 14303 3160 10 275315510825 235319 306 320 103 — — — — — —
202326 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 626580 15435020 401421 41 266314429743 164307 236 328 108 +6 +0 -11 -7 +14 0.3
202427 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 622586 13724023 281703 52 234272392665 159289 275 292 84 -12 +0 -6 -7 +13 -1.2
202528 MLB MLEAtlanta Braves — 5047 9100 3180 10 191240213453 21310 366 212 30 -4 +0 -0 -7 +1 -1.0
202528 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 411382 781119 221264 81 204255309564 105276 315 252 57 — — — — — —
202629 MLB MLEPhiladelphia Phillies — 8675 21402 7182 00 280357413770 133333 218 337 114 +1 +0 +0 -5 +2 -0.1
202629 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 356323 691508 30890 11 214280334615 121265 258 274 72 — — — — — —
201417 ROK MLEDSL Astros Blue — 227194 33310 23625 63 170275196471 26244 2710 226 39 — — — — — —
201417 ROK RAWDSL Astros Blue — 227183 48511 34515 63 262392317709 55351 2215 329 39 — — — — — —
201518 ROK MLEGCL Astros — 169154 28110 9592 26 182236201438 19292 355 197 19 — — — — — —
201518 ROK RAWGCL Astros — 169149 36210 14412 26 242315268584 27330 248 268 19 — — — — — —
201619 ROK MLEGreeneville Astros — 10797 17232 9330 00 175245320565 144242 318 249 55 — — — — — —
201619 ROK RAWGreeneville Astros — 10792 23343 14230 00 250349467816 217303 2113 356 55 — — — — — —
201720 A MLE2 teams — 7266 14401 4181 11 212268318586 106271 256 239 48 — — — — — —
201720 A RAW2 teams — 7265 15401 5141 11 231296338634 108275 197 285 48 — — — — — —
201821 A MLE2 teams — 477438 1071832 321383 107 244300313613 68348 297 274 72 — — — — — —
201821 A RAW2 teams — 477419 1212242 51973 107 289370375745 86367 2011 337 72 — — — — — —
201922 AA MLE3 teams — 501461 1052357 281293 126 228276345621 117293 266 269 68 — — — — — —
201922 AA RAW3 teams — 501449 1262978 40963 126 281343430773 149333 198 338 68 — — — — — —
202023 INTL MLEToros del Este — 1716 7000 140 00 438471438908 583 246 — — — — — — — —
202023 INTL RAWToros del Este — 1716 7000 140 00 438471438908 583 246 414 166 — — — — — —
202124 AAA MLE3 teams — 581540 15626216 331403 35 289333433767 144360 246 336 114 — — — — — —
202124 AAA RAW3 teams — 581533 16128218 401243 35 302354463818 161361 217 360 114 — — — — — —
202225 MLB MLE3 teams — 545509 13333022 291413 61 261305456761 194317 265 329 109 +6 +1 -6 +2 +12 1.5
202225 MLB RAW3 teams — 545503 12830118 341353 61 254305425730 171311 256 321 109 +6 +1 -6 +2 +12 1.5
202326 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 626580 15435020 401421 41 266314429743 164317 236 328 108 +6 +0 -11 -7 +14 0.3
202326 MLB RAWMiami Marlins — 626579 14932019 401421 41 257306411717 154307 236 316 108 +6 +0 -11 -7 +14 0.3
202427 MLB MLE2 teams — 671632 14826024 301833 72 234272389661 155288 274 292 84 -13 +1 -6 -7 +15 -1.2
202427 MLB RAW2 teams — 671626 14827022 351763 72 236280385665 149290 265 293 84 -13 +1 -6 -7 +15 -1.2
202528 AAA MLE3 teams — 649601 12418113 352036 131 206257304562 98283 315 248 54 — — — — — —
202528 AAA RAW3 teams — 649579 15525223 571576 131 268340437777 169325 249 343 54 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLE2 teams — 442398 9019010 371072 11 226295349644 123280 248 286 80 — — — — — —
202629 AAA RAW2 teams — 442383 10423014 51922 11 272359441801 170319 2112 354 80 — — — — — —
201417 ROK MLEDSL Astros Blue — 227197 33310 23625 63 168275193468 25237 2710 226 39 — — — — — —
201518 ROK MLEGCL Astros — 169156 28110 9592 26 179236199435 19283 355 197 19 — — — — — —
201619 ROK MLEGreeneville Astros — 10797 17232 9330 00 175245320565 144239 318 249 55 — — — — — —
201720 A MLE2 teams — 7267 14401 4181 11 209268313581 104247 256 239 48 — — — — — —
201821 A MLE2 teams — 477439 1071832 321383 107 244300312612 68343 297 274 72 — — — — — —
201922 AA MLE3 teams — 501465 1052357 281293 126 226276342618 116285 266 269 68 — — — — — —
202124 AAA MLE3 teams — 581540 15626216 331403 35 289333433767 144356 246 336 114 — — — — — —
202225 MLB MLE3 teams — 545508 13333022 291413 61 262305457762 195306 265 329 109 — — — — — —
202326 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 626580 15435020 401421 41 266314429743 164307 236 328 108 — — — — — —
202427 MLB MLE2 teams — 671633 14826024 301833 72 234272389661 155289 274 292 84 — — — — — —
202528 AAA MLE3 teams — 649603 12418113 352036 131 206257303560 98280 315 248 54 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLE2 teams — 442400 9019010 371072 11 225295347643 122278 248 286 80 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202427 MLB MLE2 teams — 671633 14826024 301833 72 234272389661 155289 274 292 84 — — — — — —
202528 AAA MLE3 teams — 649603 12418113 352036 131 206257303560 98280 315 248 54 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLE2 teams — 442400 9019010 371072 11 225295347643 122278 248 286 80 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202730 MLB MLEPHI 45% 487449 10619114 321303 51 237293377670 140299 277 298 88 -7 +1 +0 -5 +11 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202730 MLB CTXPHI 45% 182167 40706 12491 20 239295385680 146300 277 302 88 -3 +0 +0 -2 +4 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202831 MLB MLEPHI 100% 386356 8315011 251042 11 233288367654 134296 276 292 83 -8 -0 -3 -4 +8 -0.6
202831 MLB CTXPHI 100% 386356 8314012 251042 11 235289374664 140296 276 295 83 -8 -0 -3 -4 +8 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 23442169 540103272 14159511 165 249298398696 149308 256 308 81 -17 +1 -27 -26 +51 -1.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650601 15129120 391653 41 251299403702 151311 256 308 81 -5 +0 -8 -7 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 58745414 128823917140 362157136 7036 238290366656 128306 276 288 81 -23 +2 -27 -30 +60 -1.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650599 14226215 401744 84 237289362652 125305 276 288 81 -5 +0 -6 -7 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 356 PAwOBA .351 → .274 (−77)K% 20.8% → 24.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.79%÷1.000×1.200——24.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.36%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9728.29%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9720.00%
Singles /BIP22.22%÷1.000×0.930×0.973×0.97219.55%
Doubles /BIP8.12%÷1.000×0.830×0.973×0.9726.38%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.973×0.9720.00%
Home runs /BIP5.13%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9723.49%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .351 → .274; ISO .179 → .130; BABIP .316 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 411 PAwOBA .332 → .252 (−80)K% 25.1% → 30.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.06%÷0.979×1.200——30.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.52%÷1.078×0.690—×0.9825.35%
HBP% /PA0.97%—×0.940—×0.9820.90%
Singles /BIP24.81%÷1.008×0.930×0.984×0.98222.11%
Doubles /BIP5.64%÷1.020×0.830×0.984×0.9824.43%
Triples /BIP0.38%÷0.944×0.970×0.984×0.9820.37%
Home runs /BIP5.64%÷1.070×0.700—×0.9823.62%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .332 → .252; ISO .168 → .113; BABIP .323 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 54 PAwOBA .415 → .320 (−96)K% 24.1% → 29.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.07%÷0.966×1.200——29.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.41%÷0.978×0.690—×1.0185.32%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP24.32%÷1.054×0.930—×1.01821.85%
Doubles /BIP8.11%÷0.898×0.830—×1.0187.63%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.930×0.970—×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP10.81%÷1.032×0.700—×1.0187.47%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 111, 2B 80, 3B 86, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .415 → .320; ISO .300 → .210; BABIP .364 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 293 PAwOBA .378 → .321 (−57)K% 20.1% → 24.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.14%÷1.002×1.200——24.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.80%÷0.975×0.690—×1.0334.24%
HBP% /PA0.34%—×0.940—×1.0330.33%
Singles /BIP27.70%÷1.023×0.930×0.978×1.03325.45%
Doubles /BIP7.98%÷0.923×0.830×0.978×1.0337.25%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920×0.978×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP5.63%÷0.935×0.700—×1.0334.35%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 105, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .378 → .321; ISO .195 → .156; BABIP .373 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 300 PAwOBA .330 → .273 (−56)K% 20.0% → 25.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷0.958×1.220——25.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.00%÷1.043×0.700—×1.0275.52%
HBP% /PA0.67%—×0.870—×1.0270.60%
Singles /BIP25.84%÷1.011×0.920×0.950×1.02722.94%
Doubles /BIP6.70%÷0.949×0.840×0.950×1.0275.79%
Triples /BIP1.91%÷0.995×0.940×0.950×1.0271.76%
Home runs /BIP1.91%÷1.067×0.800—×1.0271.47%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 99, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .330 → .273; ISO .126 → .105; BABIP .343 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fayetteville Woodpeckers · 183 PAwOBA .346 → .262 (−84)K% 18.0% → 26.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.03%÷0.983×1.420——26.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.74%÷1.000×0.630—×0.9985.50%
HBP% /PA0.55%—×0.860—×0.9980.47%
Singles /BIP19.23%÷1.029×0.940×0.950×0.99816.65%
Doubles /BIP10.77%÷1.068×0.830×0.950×0.9987.94%
Triples /BIP1.54%÷1.150×0.800×0.950×0.9981.01%
Home runs /BIP3.08%÷0.969×0.900—×0.9982.85%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 106, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 97, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .346 → .262; ISO .184 → .141; BABIP .318 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 264 PAwOBA .321 → .269 (−53)K% 21.2% → 29.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.21%÷0.976×1.360——29.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.71%÷0.968×0.690——6.21%
HBP% /PA0.38%—×0.780——0.30%
Singles /BIP28.18%÷0.939×0.920×0.993—27.39%
Doubles /BIP6.08%÷1.012×0.830×0.993—4.95%
Triples /BIP1.66%÷0.973×0.910×0.993—1.54%
Home runs /BIP1.10%÷0.973×0.800——0.91%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 88, 2B 102, 3B 95, K 95, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .321 → .269; ISO .097 → .077; BABIP .359 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Buies Creek Astros · 213 PAwOBA .339 → .281 (−59)K% 19.2% → 27.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.25%÷0.980×1.420——27.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.74%÷1.007×0.630—×1.0127.43%
HBP% /PA0.94%—×0.860—×1.0120.82%
Singles /BIP29.79%÷1.029×0.940×1.001×1.01227.58%
Doubles /BIP7.80%÷0.915×0.830×1.001×1.0127.17%
Triples /BIP0.71%÷0.931×0.800×1.001×1.0120.62%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.962×0.900—×1.0120.00%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 106, 2B 83, 3B 86, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .339 → .281; ISO .071 → .063; BABIP .378 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .