Sean Keys

3B Buffalo Bisons
Age 24 L/R 6'1" / 232 lbs AAA Svc 0.308 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421ATOR98.293/.389/.4511296—.247/.326/.365
202522A+TOR529.217/.368/.40819876—.177/.291/.343
202623AAA/AATOR435.294/.418/.602287130—.250/.349/.481
202623MLBTOR67.197/.242/.3282056-0.0
2027PROJ45% MLB24MLBTOR70.231/.323/.436311130.3
2028PROJ59% MLB25MLBTOR297.233/.324/.4371341131.2
2029PROJ65% MLB26MLBTOR366.233/.324/.4351641131.5
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 3.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.308First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$6M2031Arb-2$8M2032Arb-3$10M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV92
BB%79
K%64
Z-Con%61
Speed60
Chase%59
Form.223/.310/.421 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .230/.320/.434
Career WAR0.8 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 26, comp-based) · star 7% · didn't stick 53%
CompsLogan O'Hoppe (age 24) · Pedro Álvarez (age 24) · MJ Melendez (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†113
AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .323 / .436
PA70
HR3
K%27
BB%9
BABIP279
ISO194
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +2.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+2BATRUN: -0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.70+0.7WAR
0.01.02.00.31.21.51.41.21.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026
CONTACT
xAVG
100.212
POWER
Barrel%
6210.0
Avg EV
4388.6
SPEED
Sprint
4027.0
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%29%▼▼33% over 30 PA (60d) · proj 27%
BB%9%·7% over 30 PA (60d) · proj 9%
ISO.198·.160 over 25 AB (60d) · proj .204
BABIP.279·.333 over 15 BIP (60d) · proj .278
SLASH.223/.310/.421▼proj .230/.320/.434
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   0.308 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.5M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.2$9M+$8M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.5$10M+$10M
2030Arb-1$6M+1.4$9M+$5M
2031Arb-2$8M+1.2$7M+$2M
2032Arb-3$10M+1.0$5M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $16M $42M +$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 ADunedin Blue Jays — 9882 24431 13210 21 293389451841 159365 2113 363 96 — — — — — —
202522 A+Vancouver Canadians — 529424 9222119 8611715 81 217368408776 191250 2216 351 76 — — — — — —
202623 MLBToronto Blue Jays — 6761 12202 3231 00 197242328570 131270 344 251 56 -4 +0 +0 +2 +1 -0.0
202623 AAABuffalo Bisons — 226185 5611314 32467 10 3034246221.046 319333 2014 447 135 — — — — — —
202623 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 209172 499014 28519 61 285411581993 297327 2413 432 124 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 6761 12202 3231 00 197242328570 131270 344 251 56 -4 +0 +0 +2 +1 -0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 9885 21321 10270 21 247326365691 118331 2810 310 96 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEVancouver Canadians — 529452 8019118 5816515 81 177291343634 166222 3111 281 76 — — — — — —
202623 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 6762 12202 3231 00 194242323565 129270 344 250 56 -4 +0 +0 +2 +1 -0.0
202623 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 226195 5010310 22557 10 256353492845 236302 2410 367 135 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 209181 448011 19629 61 243344470814 227301 309 351 124 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 9885 21321 10270 21 247326365691 118333 2810 310 96 — — — — — —
202421 A RAWDunedin Blue Jays — 9882 24431 13210 21 293389451841 159365 2113 363 96 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEVancouver Canadians — 529452 8019118 5816515 81 177291343634 166227 3111 281 76 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAWVancouver Canadians — 529424 9222119 8611715 81 217368408776 191250 2216 351 76 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLE3 teams — 502438 10619324 4414017 71 242335463798 221297 289 345 119 — — — — — —
202623 AAA RAW3 teams — 502418 11722330 6312017 71 280395562957 282322 2413 414 119 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 9888 21321 10270 21 239326352679 114331 2810 310 96 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEVancouver Canadians — 529451 8019118 5816515 81 177291344635 166222 3111 281 76 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLE3 teams — 502436 10619324 4414017 71 243335466800 222297 289 345 119 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 9888 21321 10270 21 239326352679 114331 2810 310 96 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEVancouver Canadians — 529451 8019118 5816515 81 177291344635 166222 3111 281 76 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLE3 teams — 502436 10619324 4414017 71 243335466800 222297 289 345 119 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLETOR 45% 380332 7714217 3410211 51 231322434757 204278 279 335 113 +6 +1 -1 +1 +8 0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXTOR 45% 7062 14303 6192 10 231323436759 204279 279 336 113 +1 +0 -0 +0 +2 0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLETOR 59% 505440 10319322 4613414 62 232323436759 203279 279 336 113 +8 +0 -1 +2 +11 2.1
202926 MLB MLETOR 65% 562491 11421324 5114815 62 233323434757 201279 269 335 113 +9 +0 -1 +2 +12 2.3
203027 MLB MLETOR 67% 550481 11221323 5014514 62 232322430752 198279 269 333 111 +7 +0 -1 +2 +12 2.1
203128 MLB MLETOR 67% 534468 10920322 4814113 42 231320424743 193279 269 330 109 +6 +0 -1 +2 +12 1.8
203229 MLB MLETOR 66% 520456 10420220 4713712 21 229317416733 187278 269 326 106 +4 +0 -2 +2 +11 1.5
203330 MLB MLETOR 65% 506444 10019219 4513512 11 226313408721 182275 279 321 103 +2 -0 -3 +2 +11 1.2
203431 MLB MLETOR 65% 492435 9618218 4313311 11 221308397705 176272 279 314 99 -1 -0 -4 +2 +11 0.8
203532 MLB MLETOR 65% 479423 9217217 4213211 00 215301384685 168267 289 306 94 -4 +0 -4 +2 +10 0.4
203633 MLB MLETOR 64% 244216 45818 21695 00 209294367661 159261 289 297 87 -4 +0 -5 +1 +5 -0.2
202825 MLB CTXTOR 59% 297260 6111213 27798 41 233324437761 204280 279 336 113 +5 +0 -0 +1 +6 1.2
202926 MLB CTXTOR 65% 366320 7514216 339710 41 233324435759 202280 279 336 113 +6 +0 -1 +1 +8 1.5
203027 MLB CTXTOR 67% 366321 7514215 33969 41 233323431753 198280 269 334 111 +5 +0 -1 +1 +8 1.4
203128 MLB CTXTOR 67% 359315 7414215 32959 31 232320425745 193280 269 330 109 +4 +0 -1 +1 +8 1.2
203229 MLB CTXTOR 66% 343301 6913213 31918 21 230317417735 187279 279 326 106 +3 +0 -1 +1 +7 1.0
203330 MLB CTXTOR 65% 330290 6612113 29888 01 226314409722 182276 279 321 103 +1 -0 -2 +1 +7 0.7
203431 MLB CTXTOR 65% 319281 6211112 28877 00 222309398707 176273 279 315 99 -0 +0 -2 +1 +7 0.5
203532 MLB CTXTOR 65% 310273 5911111 27867 00 216302385687 168268 289 307 94 -2 +0 -3 +1 +7 0.3
203633 MLB CTXTOR 64% 157140 29515 13443 00 209294368662 159262 288 297 87 -2 +0 -3 +1 +3 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 29142562 58210714115 25678670 176 227314415729 187278 279 323 104 +14 +1 -14 +12 +63 7.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650571 13024326 5717516 41 228315417732 189278 279 323 104 +3 +0 -3 +3 +14 1.7
Career— MLE — 56764965 111421028223 5191548143 4515 224316413728 188276 279 322 104 +27 +1 -21 +18 +100 12.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650569 12824326 5917716 52 225315415730 190276 279 322 104 +4 +0 -3 +3 +14 1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 226 PAwOBA .435 → .367 (−69)K% 20.4% → 24.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.35%÷1.000×1.200——24.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.72%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0509.94%
HBP% /PA3.10%—×0.940—×1.0503.06%
Singles /BIP20.14%÷1.000×0.930×0.981×1.05019.30%
Doubles /BIP7.91%÷1.000×0.830×0.981×1.0506.77%
Triples /BIP2.16%÷1.000×0.970×0.981×1.0502.16%
Home runs /BIP10.07%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0507.40%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .435 → .367; ISO .319 → .254; BABIP .333 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 209 PAwOBA .418 → .351 (−67)K% 24.4% → 29.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.40%÷1.000×1.220——29.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.44%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0278.94%
HBP% /PA4.31%—×0.850—×1.0273.76%
Singles /BIP21.49%÷1.000×0.970×0.977×1.02720.92%
Doubles /BIP7.44%÷1.000×0.860×0.977×1.0276.42%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.950×0.977×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP11.57%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0279.27%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .418 → .351; ISO .297 → .239; BABIP .327 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 529 PAwOBA .344 → .281 (−63)K% 22.1% → 31.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.12%÷0.958×1.350——31.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.88%÷1.039×0.710—×1.01210.98%
HBP% /PA2.84%—×0.810—×1.0122.32%
Singles /BIP16.29%÷1.022×0.910×0.976×1.01214.31%
Doubles /BIP7.17%÷0.898×0.830×0.976×1.0126.54%
Triples /BIP0.33%÷0.939×0.820×0.976×1.0120.28%
Home runs /BIP6.19%÷0.855×0.830—×1.0126.08%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 80, 3B 88, K 92, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .344 → .281; ISO .191 → .176; BABIP .250 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 98 PAwOBA .366 → .310 (−56)K% 21.4% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.43%÷1.041×1.360——28.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.27%÷0.959×0.690—×1.0159.69%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0150.00%
Singles /BIP26.23%÷0.962×0.920×0.982×1.01524.98%
Doubles /BIP6.56%÷0.999×0.830×0.982×1.0155.43%
Triples /BIP4.92%÷1.150×0.910×0.982×1.0153.88%
Home runs /BIP1.64%÷1.003×0.800—×1.0151.33%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 92, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 108, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .366 → .310; ISO .159 → .128; BABIP .365 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).