Sean Keys — OGILVIE

Sean Keys3B New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 L/R 6'1" / 232 lbs MLB Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION318 act + 212 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†110

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .310 / .441

PA212

HR10

K%30

BB%8

BABIP274

ISO220

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT41

xwOBA

100.193

POWER52

Avg EV

9093.5

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED34

Sprint

3726.9

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+1.2	$9M	+$9M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$20M	+$19M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.8	$19M	+$19M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+2.8	$18M	+$13M
2030	Arb-2	$11M	+2.8	$17M	+$10M
2031	Arb-3	$14M	+2.6	$14M	+$6M
Totals		$33M		$97M	+$76M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	84	22	4	2	1	11	28	0	2	1	262	347	393	740	131	362	29	11	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	82	24	4	3	1	13	21	0	2	1	293	389	451	841	159	365	21	13	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	461	79	19	1	21	49	179	15	8	1	171	272	354	626	182	219	34	9	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	424	92	22	1	19	86	117	15	8	1	217	368	408	776	191	250	22	16	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	TOR	—	318	282	66	13	1	20	25	96	11	7	1	234	321	500	821	266	277	30	8	344	121	+8	+1	+0	+1	+9	1.9
YTD	23	AA	TOR	—	318	268	73	15	1	22	39	78	11	7	1	272	387	582	969	310	304	25	12	420	180	+29	+1	+0	+1	+9	4.1
ROS	23	AA	TOR	100%	212	186	41	9	1	10	18	64	6	4	1	220	310	441	750	220	270	30	8	329	110	+2	+0	-0	+1	+6	0.9
ROS	23	MLB	TOR	100%	212	186	42	9	1	10	18	64	6	4	1	226	314	446	761	220	271	30	8	310	95	-1	+0	-0	+1	+6	0.6
FULL	23	AA	TOR	—	530	468	108	22	2	30	43	160	17	11	2	231	318	479	797	248	280	30	8	330	111	+7	+1	-0	+2	+15	2.5
TOT	23	AA	TOR	—	530	468	107	22	2	30	43	160	17	11	2	229	316	476	793	248	276	30	8	338	117	+10	+1	-0	+2	+15	2.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TOR	92%	632	557	124	25	2	30	55	189	15	9	2	223	309	436	746	214	274	30	9	328	109	+7	+1	-1	+2	+18	2.7
2028	25	MLB	TOR	92%	620	547	123	25	2	29	54	181	14	9	2	225	311	437	747	212	276	29	9	330	111	+8	+1	-1	+2	+18	2.8
2029	26	MLB	TOR	92%	607	535	120	24	2	28	54	175	13	9	1	224	311	434	744	209	276	29	9	331	112	+8	+1	-1	+2	+17	2.8
2030	27	MLB	TOR	92%	595	524	118	24	2	27	53	171	13	9	1	225	312	433	745	208	277	29	9	331	111	+8	+1	-1	+2	+17	2.8
2031	28	MLB	TOR	92%	583	513	116	23	2	27	53	169	12	8	1	226	313	437	750	211	276	29	9	330	111	+7	+1	-2	+2	+17	2.6
2032	29	MLB	TOR	92%	572	503	113	23	2	26	52	167	12	7	1	225	312	433	746	209	275	29	9	328	109	+6	+1	-2	+2	+16	2.3
2033	30	MLB	TOR	92%	560	492	109	22	2	25	51	165	12	6	1	222	310	427	737	205	273	29	9	325	107	+4	+1	-3	+2	+16	2.0
2034	31	MLB	TOR	92%	549	482	106	21	2	24	50	163	12	6	1	220	309	421	730	201	270	30	9	321	104	+2	+1	-4	+2	+16	1.7
2035	32	MLB	TOR	92%	538	473	101	20	1	23	49	162	11	4	1	214	302	406	708	192	266	30	9	315	99	-0	+0	-4	+2	+15	1.3
2036	33	MLB	TOR	92%	464	409	84	16	1	19	42	142	10	3	1	205	295	389	684	183	261	31	9	308	94	-3	+0	-5	+2	+13	0.7
2027	24	MLB	TOR	92%	581	513	114	23	2	28	50	174	13	8	1	222	307	439	746	216	275	30	9	312	97	-2	+1	-1	+2	+16	1.7
2028	25	MLB	TOR	92%	570	502	114	23	2	27	50	167	13	8	1	227	313	442	756	215	277	29	9	315	99	-1	+1	-1	+2	+16	1.8
2029	26	MLB	TOR	92%	558	492	111	22	2	26	49	161	12	8	1	226	311	437	748	211	278	29	9	316	100	-0	+1	-1	+2	+16	1.8
2030	27	MLB	TOR	92%	547	481	109	22	2	25	49	157	12	8	1	227	314	437	750	210	278	29	9	316	100	-0	+1	-1	+2	+15	1.8
2031	28	MLB	TOR	92%	536	472	107	21	2	25	48	155	11	7	1	227	313	439	751	212	277	29	9	315	99	-1	+1	-2	+2	+15	1.6
2032	29	MLB	TOR	92%	526	462	104	21	2	24	48	153	11	7	1	225	313	435	748	210	276	29	9	313	98	-1	+1	-2	+2	+15	1.5
2033	30	MLB	TOR	92%	515	452	101	20	2	23	47	151	11	6	1	223	312	429	741	206	274	29	9	310	96	-3	+1	-3	+2	+15	1.2
2034	31	MLB	TOR	92%	505	443	96	19	1	22	46	150	11	5	1	217	306	413	719	196	271	30	9	306	92	-4	+1	-3	+2	+14	0.9
2035	32	MLB	TOR	92%	495	437	92	18	1	21	45	149	10	4	1	211	299	400	699	190	267	30	9	300	88	-7	+0	-4	+2	+14	0.6
2036	33	MLB	TOR	92%	427	376	79	15	1	18	39	131	9	3	0	210	300	399	698	189	262	31	9	293	83	-8	+1	-5	+2	+12	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5472	4816	1069	213	18	249	489	1612	119	68	10	222	309	429	738	207	275	29	9	310	96	-28	+10	-22	+20	+155	13.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	127	25	2	30	58	191	14	8	1	222	309	430	739	208	274	29	9	310	96	-3	+1	-3	+2	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	6559	5766	1256	255	22	290	591	1955	145	84	15	218	306	421	727	203	272	30	9	321	104	+29	+11	-24	+23	+186	22.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	124	25	2	29	59	194	14	8	1	217	306	420	726	203	270	30	9	321	104	+3	+1	-2	+2	+18	2.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	82	24	4	3	1	13	21	0	2	1	293	389	451	841	159	365	21	13	363	136	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	424	92	22	1	19	86	117	15	8	1	217	368	408	776	191	250	22	16	351	127	+16	+1	—	—	+15	3.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	10	5,509	235	26	241	336	447	+20	-17	28.7	28.7
#1Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	/162	664	28	3	241	336	447	+2.4	-2.1	3.5	pk7: 29
#2Todd Frazierlast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,909 PA	10	4,909	218	73	242	319	448	+18	+35	27.6	26.2
	/162	664	29	10	242	319	448	+2.4	+4.7	3.7	pk7: 25
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	5,582	251	69	222	306	428	+20	-18	22.2	19.7
	/162	664	30	8	222	306	428	+2.4	-2.1	2.6	pk7: 17
#3Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	9	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
	/162	664	27	6	242	311	438	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#4Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#5Travis Shawlast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,671 PA	7	2,671	114	20	239	322	441	+4	+6	13.4	13.4
	/162	664	28	5	239	322	441	+1.1	+1.6	3.3	pk7: 13
#6Tony Batistalast yr '07 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,601 PA	7	3,601	162	33	244	291	445	-9	-1	10.4	10.4
	/162	664	30	6	244	291	445	-1.6	-0.2	1.9	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sean Keys (OGILVIE)	23	30→41	50→52	30→34	45	229/316/476	248	276	30	11	30%	8%	117	+2.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→47	56→60	38→45	47	220/314/415	194	293	24	3	32%	10%	107	+2.2	228/302/388	160	306	18	7	30%	8%	95	+1.4	229/300/383	153	297	17	7	27%	7%	90	+0.6
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47→46	56→60	38→30	50	248/319/434	185	284	25	4	22%	8%	114	+2.7	222/277/341	119	269	13	6	22%	7%	71	-0.3	197/240/273	76	241	5	5	20%	5%	33	-0.7
✕Marcos Castañon 2023 · A	24	38→48	54→55	38→40	47	203/299/376	174	276	23	2	34%	10%	91	+1.1	225/288/383	158	295	20	3	29%	7%	87	+0.8	230/285/382	152	297	19	2	28%	6%	83	+0.5
✕Seth Beer 2021 · AA	24	46→45	54→55	38→30	41	242/312/417	175	297	24	3	27%	5%	107	+2.2	214/303/360	146	260	17	2	24%	7%	89	+1.0	198/292/329	131	247	14	0	25%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Michael McKenry 2009 · A	24	42→47	52→55	38→40	47	222/296/395	173	274	20	4	27%	8%	94	+1.3	219/282/356	137	276	15	3	25%	7%	77	+0.1	241/316/409	168	288	21	2	23%	9%	102	+0.7
●Allan Dykstra 2011 · A	24	39→49	50→55	38→30	52	201/303/360	159	274	18	2	32%	12%	89	+0.9	222/323/381	159	327	18	3	34%	12%	102	+1.9	228/340/399	171	322	21	1	32%	13%	112	+1.7
●MJ Melendez 2022 · AAA	23	39→49	65→60	40→50	46	226/295/469	243	272	35	5	32%	9%	113	+2.6	227/308/420	193	280	23	6	26%	10%	105	+2.1	220/304/400	180	274	20	5	26%	10%	95	+1.3
●Devin Mesoraco 2011 · AAA	23	43→49	52→60	41→40	43	226/283/398	171	279	20	3	27%	6%	89	+0.9	228/283/384	156	267	17	3	21%	7%	85	+0.7	233/324/433	200	262	26	1	22%	9%	110	+1.3
✕Nick Hundley 2008 · AA	24	41→46	51→55	39→40	45	217/274/376	159	259	19	3	25%	7%	79	+0.3	223/280/380	157	271	18	4	24%	7%	82	+0.5	255/322/429	174	321	17	4	25%	8%	109	+1.2
●Christin Stewart 2017 · AA	23	39→49	51→60	46→45	47	205/296/366	161	279	19	5	32%	10%	87	+0.8	218/291/386	168	283	20	3	29%	8%	89	+1.0	231/305/421	189	283	24	1	27%	8%	101	+1.5
●Pedro Álvarez 2010 · AA	23	47→46	56→60	45	42	240/296/430	190	320	24	4	32%	8%	103	+1.9	233/300/413	180	315	22	3	31%	9%	100	+1.7	238/310/455	217	291	31	4	29%	9%	108	+2.1
✕Ian Rice 2018 · AA	24	39	53→50	41→30	49	209/293/378	169	268	22	3	30%	10%	89	+0.9	199/283/322	123	287	14	3	33%	9%	69	-0.4	179/269/275	96	268	10	1	34%	9%	50	-0.8
●Jack Suwinski 2022 · AA	24	40→42	53→60	45→50	44	207/286/379	172	303	21	9	37%	9%	85	+0.7	211/298/405	194	287	25	11	34%	10%	98	+1.6	201/292/394	193	265	26	11	33%	10%	89	+0.8
✕Ryan Costello 2019 · A	23	42→39	50	42→30	47	216/285/369	154	277	17	4	28%	9%	82	+0.5	201/276/334	133	299	14	4	35%	9%	69	-0.4	168/256/295	127	261	14	0	39%	10%	50	-1.2
●Mark Vientos 2022 · AAA	22	40→49	58→60	38→30	36	221/267/417	196	296	28	3	35%	5%	88	+0.9	242/298/439	197	329	27	2	33%	7%	106	+2.2	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	39→49	57→60	45→50	44	212/294/409	197	278	26	6	33%	8%	97	+1.5	245/312/431	186	310	22	9	27%	7%	110	+2.4	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
✕Max Stassi 2014 · AA	23	43	52→55	44→40	39	226/276/388	162	283	20	4	28%	5%	83	+0.6	205/250/323	118	284	13	3	32%	5%	55	-1.4	218/304/386	168	282	22	0	30%	10%	93	+0.6
✕Joey Bart 2020 · AA	23	43	54→55	45→40	38	228/271/405	177	288	23	7	30%	5%	85	+0.7	236/291/384	148	336	17	5	33%	6%	89	+0.9	253/338/392	139	338	17	1	28%	9%	109	+1.1
●Michael Busch 2022 · AA	24	44→49	54→60	41→40	44	222/304/400	179	317	22	4	35%	9%	99	+1.7	229/308/416	187	304	23	4	31%	9%	105	+2.1	246/334/460	214	297	27	4	26%	10%	122	+3.1
✕Travis Scott 2008 · A	23	44	50→55	43→40	44	225/284/373	148	289	18	3	28%	7%	82	+0.5	223/277/378	155	288	17	5	28%	7%	81	+0.4	217/270/376	158	275	18	3	27%	6%	76	+0.0