Sean Keys — OGILVIE

Sean Keys3B Buffalo Bisons

Age 24 L/R 6'1" / 232 lbs AAA Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†113

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .323 / .436

PA112

HR5

K%27

BB%9

BABIP279

ISO214

MLB%45%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 41 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT41

xAVG

100.212

POWER52

Barrel%

6210.0

Avg EV

4388.6

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED34

Sprint

4027.0

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%29%▼▼33% over 30 PA (60d) · proj 27%

BB%9%·7% over 30 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.198·.160 over 25 AB (60d) · proj .204

BABIP.279·.333 over 15 BIP (60d) · proj .278

SLASH.223/.310/.421▼proj .230/.320/.434

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+1.8	$12M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+1.8	$11M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$13M	+1.5	$9M	+$0.1M
Totals		$31M		$46M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	82	24	4	3	1	13	21	0	2	1	293	389	451	841	159	365	21	13	363	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	424	92	22	1	19	86	117	15	8	1	217	368	408	776	191	250	22	16	351	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	67	61	12	2	0	2	3	23	1	0	0	197	242	328	570	131	270	34	4	251	56	-4	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.0
2026	23	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	226	185	56	11	3	14	32	46	7	1	0	303	424	622	1.046	319	333	20	14	447	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	209	172	49	9	0	14	28	51	9	6	1	285	411	581	993	297	327	24	13	432	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	67	61	12	2	0	2	3	23	1	0	0	197	242	328	570	131	270	34	4	251	56	-4	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	85	21	3	2	1	10	27	0	2	1	247	326	365	691	118	331	28	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	452	80	19	1	18	58	165	15	8	1	177	291	343	634	166	222	31	11	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	67	62	12	2	0	2	3	23	1	0	0	194	242	323	565	129	270	34	4	250	56	-4	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.0
2026	23	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	226	195	50	10	3	10	22	55	7	1	0	256	353	492	845	236	302	24	10	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	209	181	44	8	0	11	19	62	9	6	1	243	344	470	814	227	301	30	9	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	85	21	3	2	1	10	27	0	2	1	247	326	365	691	118	333	28	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	82	24	4	3	1	13	21	0	2	1	293	389	451	841	159	365	21	13	363	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	452	80	19	1	18	58	165	15	8	1	177	291	343	634	166	227	31	11	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	424	92	22	1	19	86	117	15	8	1	217	368	408	776	191	250	22	16	351	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	502	438	106	19	3	24	44	140	17	7	1	242	335	463	798	221	297	28	9	345	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	502	418	117	22	3	30	63	120	17	7	1	280	395	562	957	282	322	24	13	414	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	88	21	3	2	1	10	27	0	2	1	239	326	352	679	114	331	28	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	451	80	19	1	18	58	165	15	8	1	177	291	344	635	166	222	31	11	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	502	436	106	19	3	24	44	140	17	7	1	243	335	466	800	222	297	28	9	345	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	88	21	3	2	1	10	27	0	2	1	239	326	352	679	114	331	28	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	451	80	19	1	18	58	165	15	8	1	177	291	344	635	166	222	31	11	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	502	436	106	19	3	24	44	140	17	7	1	243	335	466	800	222	297	28	9	345	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	45%	380	332	77	14	2	17	34	102	11	5	1	231	322	434	757	204	278	27	9	335	113	+6	+1	-1	+1	+8	1.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	45%	112	98	23	4	1	5	10	30	3	1	0	231	323	436	759	204	279	27	9	336	113	+2	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	63%	571	499	116	21	3	25	52	153	15	7	2	233	323	436	759	203	281	27	9	336	113	+9	+1	-1	+2	+12	2.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	72%	617	540	126	23	3	26	56	163	16	7	2	234	323	433	756	199	281	26	9	335	113	+9	+1	-1	+2	+13	2.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	74%	607	532	124	23	3	25	55	160	15	6	2	233	322	429	751	196	281	26	9	333	111	+8	+0	-1	+2	+13	2.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	75%	595	522	121	22	3	24	54	157	14	5	2	232	320	424	743	192	280	26	9	330	109	+6	+0	-2	+2	+13	2.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	74%	583	512	118	22	3	23	52	156	14	3	1	229	317	417	734	188	278	27	9	326	107	+5	+0	-2	+2	+13	1.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	73%	572	503	113	21	2	22	51	155	13	1	1	226	313	408	721	183	276	27	9	321	103	+2	-0	-3	+2	+12	1.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	72%	560	493	109	20	2	21	49	154	13	1	1	221	308	398	706	177	272	28	9	315	99	-1	-0	-4	+2	+12	1.0
2035	32	MLB MLE	TOR	72%	549	484	105	19	2	20	48	153	12	1	0	215	301	385	686	169	268	28	9	307	94	-4	+0	-4	+2	+12	0.6
2036	33	MLB MLE	TOR	78%	356	315	65	11	1	12	30	101	8	0	0	209	293	368	662	160	262	28	8	297	87	-5	+0	-5	+1	+8	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	63%	361	315	75	14	2	16	33	96	10	4	1	234	324	437	761	203	282	27	9	336	113	+6	+0	-1	+1	+8	1.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	72%	443	389	91	17	2	19	40	117	11	5	2	235	324	434	758	200	283	26	9	335	113	+7	+0	-1	+2	+10	1.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	74%	448	394	92	17	2	19	40	118	11	5	1	234	322	430	753	196	282	26	9	333	111	+6	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	75%	445	391	91	17	2	18	40	118	11	3	1	232	320	425	745	192	281	27	9	330	109	+5	+0	-1	+2	+10	1.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	74%	429	378	87	16	2	17	38	115	10	2	1	230	317	418	735	188	280	27	9	326	107	+3	+0	-2	+2	+9	1.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	73%	417	367	83	15	2	16	37	113	10	1	1	226	313	409	723	183	277	27	9	321	103	+2	-0	-2	+1	+9	1.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	72%	406	358	79	14	2	15	36	111	9	0	0	222	308	399	707	177	273	27	9	315	99	-0	+0	-3	+1	+9	0.7
2035	32	MLB CTX	TOR	72%	396	350	75	14	1	14	34	110	9	0	0	216	302	385	687	169	269	28	9	307	94	-3	+0	-3	+1	+9	0.4
2036	33	MLB CTX	TOR	78%	279	247	52	9	1	10	24	79	6	0	0	209	294	369	663	160	263	28	9	298	87	-4	+0	-4	+1	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3691	3250	737	135	16	146	325	1000	88	20	7	227	314	413	727	186	279	27	9	322	104	+17	+1	-16	+15	+80	9.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	130	24	3	26	57	176	15	4	1	227	313	416	729	189	279	27	9	322	104	+3	+0	-3	+3	+14	1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6389	5593	1254	232	29	252	582	1751	159	51	15	224	315	411	726	187	276	27	9	322	104	+30	+2	-23	+21	+115	14.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	128	24	3	26	59	178	16	5	2	225	315	415	730	190	276	27	9	322	104	+4	+0	-3	+3	+14	1.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	6.1	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
/162	664	27	6	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#2Jedd Gyorkolast yr '20 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,983 PA	4.5	2,983	121	14	245	310	424	+8	+22	13.4	13.5
/162	664	27	3	+1.7	+5.0	3.0	pk7: 14
#3Travis Shawlast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,671 PA	4.0	2,671	114	20	239	322	441	+4	+6	13.4	13.4
/162	664	28	5	+1.1	+1.6	3.3	pk7: 13
#4Jeimer Candelariolast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,576 PA	5.4	3,576	110	19	237	316	412	+8	-5	12.7	13.0
/162	664	20	4	+1.6	-0.9	2.4	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.7	3,804	150	23	227	311	413	+14	-14	13.6	12.9
/162	664	26	4	+2.4	-2.5	2.4	pk7: 12
#5Pedro Álvarezlast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,287 PA	5.0	3,287	161	15	235	309	447	+1	-40	10.0	10.2
/162	664	33	3	+0.2	-8.0	2.0	pk7: 10
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sean Keys (OGILVIE)	24	30→41	50→52	30→34	45	229/320/431	202	278	11	3	27%	9%	113	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2024 · MLB	24	45→48	57→55	43→45	49	240/314/434	193	269	26	6	22%	8%	110	+2.1	233/291/394	161	295	22	4	28%	7%	93	+0.8	226/283/371	144	289	20	2	28%	6%	84	+0.1
●Pedro Álvarez 2011 · MLB	24	48	57→65	42→45	45	247/310/447	200	324	24	4	31%	8%	112	+2.2	234/300/430	196	305	26	3	31%	8%	104	+1.6	236/300/460	224	282	33	4	29%	8%	112	+2.0
✕MJ Melendez 2023 · MLB	24	41→48	57→60	41→50	54	224/310/424	200	262	26	5	26%	11%	106	+1.8	218/291/395	177	277	20	8	28%	9%	93	+0.8	208/276/381	172	269	19	10	29%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Wilin Rosario 2013 · MLB	24	45→54	59→60	39→45	40	244/281/444	200	280	28	5	25%	5%	101	+1.4	257/288/428	171	301	22	5	22%	4%	99	+1.2	259/286/416	157	305	19	4	22%	3%	95	+0.7
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2015 · MLB	24	48→56	57→60	42→45	42	250/309/453	203	317	25	4	29%	7%	113	+2.3	223/284/402	179	290	23	3	31%	7%	92	+0.7	217/296/406	188	293	24	3	33%	8%	96	+0.5
✕Nolan Gorman 2024 · MLB	24	43→46	61→60	48→45	45	235/305/449	214	302	31	8	33%	9%	110	+2.1	208/285/399	191	281	27	6	35%	10%	92	+0.7	186/269/358	172	251	25	3	36%	10%	77	-0.2
●Mark Vientos 2024 · MLB	24	47→51	55→60	42→30	41	243/300/429	186	320	24	2	31%	7%	104	+1.6	247/304/446	199	308	26	2	28%	7%	109	+2.0	244/301/449	205	295	28	0	27%	7%	109	+1.5
●Devin Mesoraco 2012 · MLB	24	46→50	53→60	42→40	45	239/295/416	177	281	20	3	23%	6%	99	+1.2	237/293/397	160	272	19	3	20%	7%	94	+0.9	235/319/433	198	264	26	1	22%	9%	112	+1.1
●Kerry Carpenter 2023 · MLB	25	46→53	57→70	35→45	40	244/294/444	200	291	26	5	26%	5%	105	+1.7	261/314/484	223	311	29	5	26%	6%	122	+2.9	263/316/500	236	306	32	3	25%	6%	127	+2.4
●Hunter Goodman 2024 · MLB	24	39→49	57→65	45→40	39	214/270/414	200	272	26	4	32%	6%	90	+0.6	228/281/441	213	278	28	4	29%	6%	100	+1.3	232/286/458	227	274	32	3	28%	6%	107	+1.6
✕Welington Castillo 2012 · MLB	25	42→52	54→55	41→30	40	227/275/401	175	279	23	3	28%	5%	88	+0.5	246/316/398	152	311	18	3	26%	8%	102	+1.5	251/305/431	180	305	25	1	26%	6%	107	+1.2
✕Juan Yepez 2022 · AAA	24	44→49	57→60	39→45	47	237/307/438	201	277	26	4	25%	8%	109	+2.0	234/292/406	172	275	21	3	23%	7%	95	+1.0	232/290/385	153	271	19	3	22%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Chance Sisco 2020 · MLB	25	46→56	50	41→40	44	227/316/380	152	307	18	3	30%	8%	99	+1.3	209/304/353	144	283	16	4	30%	9%	88	+0.5	175/282/296	122	242	12	0	31%	10%	68	-0.3
●Chris Duncan 2007 · MLB	26	48→50	57→60	39→40	48	251/319/449	199	304	26	3	26%	9%	115	+2.4	244/326/420	176	302	22	4	25%	11%	111	+2.1	232/324/387	155	287	18	2	24%	12%	103	+1.0
✕Triston Casas 2024 · MLB	24	47→49	57→60	47→40	57	247/341/446	199	295	25	3	25%	12%	122	+3.0	235/319/424	189	296	24	4	28%	10%	109	+2.0	216/300/403	187	273	25	0	30%	10%	98	+0.4
✕Austin Allen 2020 · MLB	26	45→53	57→60	38→40	41	241/285/436	195	285	25	2	26%	5%	100	+1.3	239/280/416	177	293	23	3	26%	5%	93	+0.8	210/262/379	169	251	23	0	27%	5%	75	-0.3
●Isaac Paredes 2023 · MLB	24	42→52	54→60	39→40	57	224/313/404	181	239	22	2	18%	11%	103	+1.5	241/339/441	200	256	26	2	18%	11%	121	+2.9	244/348/443	199	258	26	1	17%	11%	126	+2.9
●Miguel Montero 2008 · MLB	25	47→57	52→55	39→40	49	245/306/407	162	263	21	3	17%	7%	101	+1.4	257/318/421	164	294	18	3	19%	7%	108	+1.9	267/343/423	156	316	17	0	20%	9%	119	+2.2
✕Nomar Mazara 2019 · MLB	24	49→53	52→55	42→40	48	250/310/413	163	288	20	3	21%	7%	103	+1.6	246/304/402	156	301	18	4	24%	7%	99	+1.2	242/299/390	148	301	17	3	25%	6%	93	+0.4
●Colby Rasmus 2011 · MLB	24	49→54	55→65	46→50	49	254/319/438	184	302	22	11	24%	9%	112	+2.2	239/304/423	184	289	22	6	24%	8%	103	+1.6	243/309/466	223	315	29	3	32%	8%	116	+1.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps