Sean Keys — OGILVIE

Sean Keys3B Buffalo Bisons

Age 23 L/R 6'1" / 232 lbs MLB Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION482 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†107

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP279

ISO171

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$41M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT41

xAVG

100.186

POWER52

Barrel%

447.4

Avg EV

6490.1

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED34

Sprint

4227.1

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.6M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$12M	+$11M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$13M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+1.9	$12M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+1.8	$11M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$14M	+1.7	$9M	+$1M
Totals		$31M		$58M	+$37M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	82	24	4	3	1	13	21	0	2	1	293	389	451	841	159	365	21	13	363	132	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	424	92	22	1	19	86	117	15	8	1	217	368	408	776	191	250	22	16	351	124	+15	+1	—	—	+11	2.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	85	22	4	2	1	10	29	0	2	1	259	337	388	725	129	330	30	10	308	95	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	459	77	18	1	18	51	171	15	8	1	168	272	329	601	161	207	32	10	261	63	-23	+1	—	—	+11	-1.1
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	85	22	4	2	1	10	29	0	2	1	259	337	388	725	129	362	30	10	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	82	24	4	3	1	13	21	0	2	1	293	389	451	841	159	365	21	13	363	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	459	77	18	1	18	51	171	15	8	1	168	272	329	601	161	215	32	10	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	424	92	22	1	19	86	117	15	8	1	217	368	408	776	191	250	22	16	351	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	88	22	4	2	1	10	29	0	2	1	250	337	375	712	125	330	30	10	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	458	77	18	1	18	51	171	15	8	1	168	272	330	602	162	207	32	10	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	98	88	22	4	2	1	10	29	0	2	1	250	337	375	712	125	330	30	10	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	529	458	77	18	1	18	51	171	15	8	1	168	272	330	602	162	207	32	10	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	TOR	—	482	423	100	18	3	23	41	135	16	7	1	236	327	456	783	220	289	28	9	337	114	+8	+1	+0	+2	+10	2.2
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	TOR	—	47	45	9	1	0	2	2	18	0	0	0	200	234	356	590	156	280	38	4	261	114	+1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.4
YTD	23	AA RAW	TOR	—	209	172	49	9	0	14	28	51	9	6	1	285	411	581	993	297	327	24	13	432	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AAA RAW	TOR	—	226	185	56	11	3	14	32	46	7	1	0	303	424	622	1.046	319	333	20	14	447	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	MLB RAW	TOR	—	47	45	9	1	0	2	2	18	0	0	0	200	234	356	590	156	280	38	4	261	63	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
ROS	23	AAA MLE	TOR	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		277	33	11	326	107	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	TOR	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		279	33	11	307	107	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	23	MLB A+C	TOR	—	56	53	10	1	0	2	3	21	0	0	0	189	232	321	553	132	267	38	5	268	114	+1	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.2
TOT	23	AAA MLE	TOR	—	491	431	101	18	3	23	42	138	16	7	1	234	325	450	775	216	288	28	9	337	114	+8	+1	-0	+2	+11	2.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	571	501	114	22	3	23	51	160	14	7	1	228	316	421	737	194	281	28	9	327	108	+5	+1	-1	+2	+12	2.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	617	542	124	24	3	25	56	169	14	7	1	229	317	423	740	194	282	27	9	329	109	+7	+1	-1	+2	+13	2.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	607	533	123	23	3	25	55	165	14	7	1	231	319	426	745	195	282	27	9	330	110	+7	+1	-1	+2	+13	2.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	595	522	120	23	3	24	55	161	13	7	1	230	319	423	742	193	282	27	9	330	110	+7	+1	-1	+2	+13	2.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	583	511	118	22	3	24	54	159	13	6	1	231	320	427	747	196	282	27	9	329	109	+6	+1	-2	+2	+13	2.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	572	500	115	22	3	23	54	157	13	6	1	230	321	424	745	194	281	27	9	327	107	+5	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	560	490	110	21	2	22	53	155	12	5	1	224	315	410	726	186	279	28	9	324	105	+4	+1	-3	+2	+12	1.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	549	481	106	20	2	21	51	154	12	4	1	220	311	401	712	181	276	28	9	320	103	+2	+0	-4	+2	+12	1.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	538	471	102	19	2	20	50	153	12	4	1	217	308	393	700	176	272	28	9	314	99	-1	+0	-4	+2	+12	0.9
2036	33	MLB MLE	TOR	82%	464	408	86	15	2	17	43	134	10	2	0	211	302	382	684	172	268	29	9	307	94	-3	+0	-5	+2	+10	0.4
2037	34	MLB MLE	TOR	77%	410	360	74	13	2	14	38	121	9	2	0	206	297	369	667	164	261	30	9	298	88	-6	+0	-6	+1	+9	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	468	412	94	18	3	19	42	131	11	5	1	228	316	425	741	197	282	28	9	310	108	+4	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	506	443	103	19	3	21	46	139	12	6	1	233	321	431	753	199	283	27	9	313	109	+5	+1	-1	+2	+11	1.9
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	498	439	101	19	3	20	45	135	11	6	1	230	317	424	741	194	284	27	9	314	110	+6	+1	-1	+2	+11	1.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	488	429	100	19	3	20	45	132	11	6	1	233	322	431	753	198	284	27	9	314	110	+6	+1	-1	+2	+11	1.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	478	419	96	18	2	19	45	130	11	5	1	229	320	418	738	189	283	27	9	313	109	+5	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	469	412	94	18	2	19	44	129	10	5	1	228	318	420	737	192	282	28	9	311	107	+4	+1	-2	+2	+10	1.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	459	403	91	17	2	18	43	127	10	4	1	226	316	412	728	186	280	28	9	309	105	+3	+0	-2	+2	+10	1.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	450	395	87	16	2	17	42	126	10	4	1	220	311	400	711	180	277	28	9	304	103	+1	+0	-3	+2	+10	1.0
2035	32	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	441	387	85	16	2	16	41	125	10	3	1	220	311	395	706	176	274	28	9	299	99	-1	+0	-4	+2	+10	0.7
2036	33	MLB CTX	TOR	82%	380	334	72	13	2	14	35	110	8	2	0	216	305	392	697	177	269	29	9	292	94	-3	+0	-4	+1	+8	0.3
2037	34	MLB CTX	TOR	77%	318	279	57	10	1	11	29	94	7	1	0	204	295	366	661	161	262	30	9	283	88	-5	+0	-4	+1	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4964	4360	981	183	25	194	458	1381	111	47	9	225	314	412	726	187	280	28	9	307	101	+26	+6	-24	+18	+108	13.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	128	24	3	25	60	181	15	6	1	224	315	408	723	184	280	28	9	307	101	+3	+1	-3	+2	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6702	5871	1292	246	31	257	622	1891	151	67	11	220	311	404	715	184	275	28	9	317	101	+32	+8	-30	+22	+132	16.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	126	24	3	25	60	183	15	6	1	221	312	406	718	185	277	28	9	317	101	+3	+1	-3	+2	+14	1.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Moustakaslast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,577 PA	8.4	5,577	215	21	247	307	431	+14	+18	22.8	22.1
/162	664	26	3	+1.6	+2.1	2.7	pk7: 21
#2Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	8.0	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
/162	664	24	18	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.9	5,276	206	50	225	311	411	+19	-18	19.0	16.8
/162	664	26	6	+2.4	-2.2	2.4	pk7: 15
#3Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	6.1	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
/162	664	27	6	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#4Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#5Travis Shawlast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,671 PA	4.0	2,671	114	20	239	322	441	+4	+6	13.4	13.4
/162	664	28	5	+1.1	+1.6	3.3	pk7: 13
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sean Keys (OGILVIE)	23	30→41	50→52	30→34	45	222/313/415	194	277	13	4	28%	9%	107	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→47	56→60	38→45	47	220/314/415	194	293	24	3	32%	10%	106	+1.8	229/303/387	158	305	17	7	29%	8%	95	+1.0	228/299/376	148	295	16	7	27%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Michael McKenry 2009 · A	24	42→48	52→55	38→40	47	222/296/395	173	274	20	4	27%	8%	95	+0.9	221/284/354	133	278	14	3	25%	8%	80	-0.1	251/325/430	179	297	23	2	23%	9%	110	+0.8
✕Ryan Costello 2019 · A	23	41→39	50	42→30	47	214/284/368	154	274	17	4	28%	9%	84	+0.1	201/278/335	134	291	14	4	33%	9%	74	-0.6	169/258/297	128	251	15	0	37%	11%	56	-1.3
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47→46	56→60	38→30	50	248/319/434	185	284	25	4	22%	8%	112	+2.2	220/275/335	115	265	12	6	21%	7%	72	-0.7	193/235/261	68	234	4	5	19%	5%	36	-0.8
✕Marcos Castañon 2023 · A	24	39→49	53→50	38→40	47	207/302/378	171	280	22	2	33%	10%	93	+0.8	222/284/365	143	292	17	3	29%	7%	83	+0.1	224/279/359	135	291	15	2	27%	6%	77	-0.3
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	38→48	55	45→50	44	207/289/391	184	267	23	6	31%	8%	92	+0.7	240/307/413	173	302	20	9	27%	7%	103	+1.5	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
✕MJ Melendez 2022 · AAA	23	38→48	60	40→50	46	217/288/430	213	270	29	5	32%	9%	99	+1.3	224/305/409	185	277	22	6	26%	10%	101	+1.4	218/301/397	179	270	20	5	26%	10%	94	+0.8
✕Travis Scott 2008 · A	23	44	50→55	43→40	44	225/284/373	148	289	18	3	28%	7%	84	+0.2	224/278/380	156	289	18	5	28%	7%	84	+0.1	218/272/379	160	276	18	3	27%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Nick Hundley 2008 · AA	24	41→46	49→55	39→40	45	214/272/364	150	257	17	3	24%	7%	78	-0.3	222/278/375	153	270	17	4	24%	7%	83	+0.1	252/320/419	167	318	16	4	25%	8%	104	+0.9
●Devin Mesoraco 2011 · AAA	23	43→50	52→60	42→40	43	226/283/393	166	277	19	3	26%	6%	88	+0.5	227/283/373	146	267	16	3	21%	7%	84	+0.2	235/326/434	198	266	26	1	22%	9%	109	+1.0
✕Seth Beer 2021 · AA	24	46	52→50	38→30	41	240/310/403	163	295	21	3	26%	5%	102	+1.5	217/305/356	139	266	15	2	24%	7%	90	+0.6	204/296/332	127	256	14	0	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Reese Havens 2011 · AA	24	44→40	51→45	40	47	226/302/383	157	283	19	4	27%	8%	94	+0.9	215/288/337	122	303	12	4	31%	9%	78	-0.3	200/278/306	106	285	11	3	31%	9%	64	-0.5
●Pedro Álvarez 2010 · AA	23	47	54→65	45	43	240/296/422	182	318	23	4	32%	8%	100	+1.3	234/302/415	181	315	22	3	31%	9%	101	+1.4	241/313/470	229	291	33	4	29%	9%	111	+2.0
✕Max Stassi 2014 · AA	23	43	51→55	44→40	39	227/277/388	161	283	20	4	27%	5%	86	+0.3	206/251/326	120	285	14	3	32%	5%	61	-1.5	215/301/376	160	280	21	0	29%	10%	91	+0.3
✕Jabari Henry 2015 · A	24	42→41	52→55	41→45	49	219/300/392	173	278	20	6	28%	9%	95	+1.0	189/263/334	145	262	17	6	33%	8%	69	-0.9	155/230/286	130	214	16	5	35%	8%	42	-1.8
✕Christin Stewart 2017 · AA	23	40→49	52→55	46→45	48	208/301/377	169	281	20	5	32%	10%	93	+0.8	217/292/378	161	280	19	3	28%	8%	89	+0.5	222/297/388	165	279	20	1	27%	8%	91	+0.5
●Mark Vientos 2022 · AAA	22	41→50	55→60	38→30	37	222/269/403	181	298	24	3	34%	5%	86	+0.3	239/296/423	184	323	24	2	32%	7%	101	+1.4	243/303/441	198	304	26	1	28%	7%	106	+1.5
✕Ian Rice 2018 · AA	24	39→40	50	41→30	50	207/291/358	151	264	19	3	29%	10%	84	+0.2	201/284/314	113	282	12	3	31%	9%	72	-0.7	184/273/274	91	266	9	1	32%	9%	57	-0.9
✕Derek Norris 2012 · AA	23	37→47	52→55	47→50	52	198/303/366	168	267	21	10	32%	12%	91	+0.7	228/310/388	160	285	18	10	25%	10%	98	+1.2	258/336/412	153	316	16	5	22%	10%	109	+1.5
✕Tom Murphy 2014 · AA	23	41→38	50→65	42→45	39	211/275/365	155	299	17	5	34%	6%	80	-0.2	209/263/374	165	291	20	5	34%	6%	78	-0.3	247/319/462	215	314	30	2	30%	9%	117	+1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps