Charlee Soto — OGILVIE

Charlee Soto P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION3 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%22.5%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$47M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4050

CMD4050

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$11M	+$10M
2031	Arb-1	$7M	+2.0	$11M	+$7M
2032	Arb-2	$12M	+2.1	$11M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$16M	+2.0	$9M	+$2M
Totals		$37M		$54M	+$34M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	20	74	330	87	33	6	95%	3.5	19.5%	11.8%	7.7%	2.5%	5.23	4.30	—
2024	18	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	20	74	330	87	33	6	95%	3.5	19.5%	11.8%	7.7%	2.5%	5.23	4.30	—
2024	18	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	20	74	330	87	33	6	95%	3.5	26.4%	10.0%	16.4%	1.8%	5.23	3.14	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	3	3	13	53	15	4	0	100%	4.3	21.8%	8.7%	13.1%	0.0%	1.38	2.36	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	3	3	13	53	15	4	0	100%	4.3	21.8%	8.7%	13.1%	0.0%	1.38	2.36	—
2025	19	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	3	3	13	53	15	4	0	100%	4.3	28.3%	7.5%	20.8%	0.0%	1.38	1.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	3	15	3	1	1	100%	1.3	—	—	—	—	16.88	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	3	15	3	1	1	100%	1.3	—	—	—	—	16.88	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	MIN	2	2	3	15	3	1	1	100%	1.4	20.0%	6.7%	13.3%	6.7%	16.88	5.91	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	MIN	1	1	6	27	6	3	1	100%	6.3	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	2.8%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	9	42	9	4	2	—	—	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	4.2%	8.17	3.14	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	107	451	98	47	13	100%	5.6	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.47	4.48	+0.5
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIN	27	27	148	625	146	58	17	100%	5.5	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	2.7%	4.30	4.21	+1.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIN	32	32	175	739	179	65	20	100%	5.5	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	2.7%	4.14	4.04	+1.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIN	32	32	179	757	187	64	20	100%	5.6	24.7%	8.4%	16.4%	2.7%	4.02	3.93	+2.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIN	31	31	180	760	191	62	20	100%	5.8	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	2.7%	3.93	3.87	+2.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIN	30	30	180	760	193	62	20	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.2%	17.2%	2.7%	3.88	3.85	+2.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIN	30	30	177	749	190	62	20	100%	5.9	25.3%	8.2%	17.1%	2.7%	3.88	3.88	+2.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	172	726	183	61	21	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	2.8%	3.93	3.97	+1.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIN	27	27	164	694	173	60	21	100%	6.1	25.0%	8.6%	16.4%	3.0%	4.03	4.10	+1.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIN	26	26	154	652	161	58	21	100%	5.9	24.6%	8.9%	15.7%	3.2%	4.18	4.28	+1.1
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIN	24	24	144	608	147	56	21	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.4%	4.36	4.48	+0.7
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIN	22	22	133	562	134	54	21	100%	6.1	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	3.7%	4.57	4.70	+0.3
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	122	516	120	52	20	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.1%	13.2%	3.9%	4.80	4.95	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	52	220	48	23	6	100%	5.8	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.48	4.49	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIN	20	20	108	456	106	43	13	100%	5.4	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	2.8%	4.31	4.22	+0.9
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIN	27	27	148	625	151	55	17	100%	5.5	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	2.7%	4.15	4.05	+1.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIN	29	29	160	676	167	57	18	100%	5.5	24.7%	8.4%	16.4%	2.7%	4.03	3.94	+1.8
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIN	28	28	165	697	175	57	19	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	2.7%	3.94	3.88	+2.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIN	28	28	168	709	180	58	19	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.2%	17.2%	2.7%	3.89	3.86	+2.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIN	28	28	168	709	180	58	19	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.2%	17.1%	2.7%	3.89	3.89	+2.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIN	27	27	163	688	174	58	20	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	2.8%	3.94	3.98	+1.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIN	26	26	156	659	164	57	20	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.6%	16.4%	3.0%	4.04	4.11	+1.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIN	24	24	147	621	153	55	20	100%	6.1	24.6%	8.9%	15.7%	3.2%	4.19	4.29	+1.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIN	23	23	137	578	140	54	20	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.4%	4.37	4.49	+0.7
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIN	21	21	127	536	127	52	20	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	3.7%	4.58	4.71	+0.3
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIN	19	19	116	490	114	50	19	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.1%	13.2%	3.9%	4.81	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		313	313	1815	7663	1879	675	229	100%	5.8	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	3.0%	4.15	3.79	+24.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	207	74	25	100%	5.8	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	3.0%	4.15	3.79	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		26	25	90	398	79	45	9	96%	3.4	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	2.3%	5.02	4.10	+17.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	56	200	888	176	99	20	96%	3.4	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	2.3%	5.02	4.10	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Charlee Soto (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	22.5%	10.5%	2.8%	—	4.21	23.3%	13.9%	430	-0.26	—	—	—
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	86
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	86
Marco Raya R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP	3.99	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.82	20.3%	9.4%	253	+0.83	3.99	380	85
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	85
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.3%	186	-0.17	2.78	275	84
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	84
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	83
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	82
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	81
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	80
C.J. Culpepper R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP	3.55	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	.291	4.14	18.9%	7.4%	191	+0.59	3.30	277	80
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	80
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	80
Adrian Navas R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.27	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.60	3.67	204	80
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	80
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	79
Mason Englert R 2021 · 3.43 FIP	21	SP	3.43	19.5%	9.0%	1.5%	.311	4.55	21.9%	14.9%	249	+1.12	2.74	508	79
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	79
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.5	150	24.4%	8.9%	1.14	4.16
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68