Charlee Soto
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION3 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%22.4%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 21 | 20 | 74 | 330 | 87 | 33 | 6 | 95% | 3.5 | 19.5% | 11.8% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 5.23 | 4.35 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 21 | 20 | 74 | 330 | 87 | 33 | 6 | 95% | 3.5 | 26.4% | 10.0% | 16.4% | 1.8% | 5.23 | 3.14 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 3 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 1.38 | 2.36 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 3 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 28.3% | 7.5% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 1.38 | 1.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | 16.88 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 61 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.4% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.43 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 67 | 289 | 64 | 28 | 9 | — | — | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.91 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 100 | 46 | 13 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIN | 27 | 27 | 150 | 634 | 147 | 58 | 17 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.20 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 32 | 32 | 175 | 739 | 178 | 64 | 20 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.04 | +2.8 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 32 | 32 | 179 | 757 | 186 | 63 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 16.2% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 3.94 | +3.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 31 | 31 | 180 | 760 | 190 | 63 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 16.8% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.88 | +3.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 30 | 30 | 180 | 760 | 192 | 62 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.86 | +3.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 30 | 30 | 177 | 749 | 189 | 62 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.2% | 8.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.90 | +3.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 29 | 29 | 172 | 726 | 182 | 61 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 16.7% | 2.8% | 3.95 | 3.98 | +2.9 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 27 | 27 | 164 | 694 | 172 | 60 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 3.0% | 4.05 | 4.11 | +2.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 26 | 154 | 652 | 160 | 58 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.5% | 8.9% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 4.29 | +2.0 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 146 | 56 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.37 | 4.49 | +1.5 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 133 | 54 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 4.72 | +1.1 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 122 | 516 | 119 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 4.81 | 4.97 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 53 | 224 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 107 | 42 | 13 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.21 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 27 | 27 | 148 | 625 | 150 | 54 | 17 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.05 | +2.3 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 29 | 29 | 160 | 676 | 166 | 57 | 18 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 16.2% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 3.95 | +2.7 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 174 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 16.8% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.89 | +2.9 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 179 | 58 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.87 | +3.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 179 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.2% | 8.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.91 | +2.9 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 173 | 58 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 16.7% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.99 | +2.7 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 164 | 57 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 4.12 | +2.3 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 152 | 55 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 8.9% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.30 | +1.9 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 139 | 54 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 127 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 3.7% | 4.59 | 4.73 | +1.0 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 113 | 50 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 4.0% | 4.82 | 4.98 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 314 | 314 | 1817 | 7674 | 1872 | 676 | 230 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 3.80 | +34.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 206 | 74 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 3.80 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 26 | 25 | 90 | 398 | 79 | 45 | 9 | 96% | 3.4 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 5.02 | 4.14 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 56 | 200 | 888 | 176 | 99 | 21 | 96% | 3.4 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 5.02 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Charlee Soto (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.20 | 23.2% | 14.0% | 434 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Nate Dohm R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.59 | 17.7% | 2.6% | 40 | -0.27 | 4.59 | 115 | 86 |
| José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 86 |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.82 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.47 | 2.50 | 103 | 85 |
| Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 85 |
| Marco Raya R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.83 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .238 | 4.84 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.83 | 358 | 85 |
| Jaden Hamm R 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.01 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.70 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 83 | +0.69 | 4.01 | 182 | 84 |
| Mike Vasil R 2028 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 84 |
| Brandon Young R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .297 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.61 | 3.11 | 420 | 83 |
| Jared Karros R 2028 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 82 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.19 | 3.12 | 482 | 82 |
| Levi Wells R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .360 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 132 | -0.47 | 3.70 | 192 | 81 |
| Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .277 | 3.55 | 28.6% | 22.7% | 66 | -0.25 | 3.55 | 276 | 81 |
| Jaxon Wiggins R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.61 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .286 | 3.29 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 79 | -0.32 | 3.12 | 132 | 81 |
| Austin Gordon R 2028 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.70 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .315 | 5.46 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 75 | +0.76 | 4.70 | 159 | 81 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.82 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.56 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 243 | -0.26 | 4.30 | 318 | 80 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2029 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 80 |
| C.J. Culpepper R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.52 | 18.7% | 10.1% | 1.3% | .291 | 3.95 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 167 | +0.43 | 3.41 | 253 | 80 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.19 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.44 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 341 | +0.25 | 4.19 | 433 | 80 |
| Mason Englert R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.43 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .311 | 4.67 | 22.3% | 15.1% | 249 | +1.24 | 2.77 | 461 | 79 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2028 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 151 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 1.15 | 4.17 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Alex Wood ('24) | 9 | 111 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 0.96 | 3.98 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |