Charlee Soto

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#53ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	A+MIN	3	3	13	1.38	1.72	28.3%	7.5%	—	K 21.8% · BB 8.7% · FIP 2.36
2026	20	AMIN	2	2	3	16.88	6.85	20.0%	6.7%	—	K 20.0% · BB 6.7% · FIP 5.91
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIN	1	1	3	4.43	4.43	23.1%	10.3%	0.0
2028PROJ51% MLB	22	MLBMIN	10	10	53	4.30	4.22	24.1%	9.3%	0.7
2029PROJ74% MLB	23	MLBMIN	17	17	92	4.17	4.08	24.6%	8.8%	1.5

Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$5M2032Ext$8M2033Ext$11M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 4.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsJaden Hamm (age 21) · Tanner Burns (age 22) · Brandon Young (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%23.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP82

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	20	74	330	87	33	6	95%	3.5	19.5%	11.8%	7.7%	2.5%	5.23	4.30	—
2024	18	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	20	74	330	87	33	6	95%	3.5	19.5%	11.8%	7.7%	2.5%	5.23	4.30	—
2024	18	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	20	74	330	87	33	6	95%	3.5	26.4%	10.0%	16.4%	1.8%	5.23	3.14	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	3	3	13	53	15	4	0	100%	4.3	21.8%	8.7%	13.1%	0.0%	1.38	2.36	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	3	3	13	53	15	4	0	100%	4.3	21.8%	8.7%	13.1%	0.0%	1.38	2.36	—
2025	19	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	3	3	13	53	15	4	0	100%	4.3	28.3%	7.5%	20.8%	0.0%	1.38	1.72	—
2026	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	3	15	3	1	1	100%	1.3	20.0%	6.7%	13.3%	6.7%	16.88	5.91	—
2026	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	3	15	3	1	1	100%	1.3	20.0%	6.7%	13.3%	6.7%	16.88	5.91	—
2026	20	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	3	15	3	1	1	100%	1.3	20.0%	6.7%	13.3%	6.7%	16.88	6.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIN	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	23.1%	10.3%	12.9%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	104	437	105	41	13	100%	5.5	24.1%	9.3%	14.7%	2.9%	4.29	4.21	+1.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIN	23	23	124	524	129	46	15	100%	5.4	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	2.8%	4.16	4.07	+2.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIN	23	23	130	548	138	47	15	100%	5.6	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	2.8%	4.05	3.98	+2.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIN	22	22	128	541	137	45	15	100%	5.8	25.4%	8.3%	17.1%	2.8%	3.98	3.93	+2.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIN	21	21	129	543	139	45	15	100%	6.1	25.6%	8.3%	17.3%	2.8%	3.94	3.91	+2.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIN	21	21	126	532	136	45	15	100%	6.0	25.6%	8.4%	17.2%	2.9%	3.94	3.94	+2.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	120	509	130	43	15	100%	6.0	25.5%	8.5%	16.9%	2.9%	3.99	4.03	+2.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	112	475	120	42	15	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.8%	16.5%	3.1%	4.09	4.16	+1.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	102	432	107	39	14	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.1%	15.8%	3.3%	4.24	4.34	+1.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	92	386	95	36	14	100%	6.1	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	3.5%	4.42	4.54	+0.9
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	81	340	82	33	13	100%	6.2	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.8%	4.63	4.77	+0.6
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	70	298	70	31	12	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.3%	13.3%	4.0%	4.86	5.02	+0.3
2040	34	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	61	259	60	28	11	100%	6.1	23.0%	10.8%	12.2%	4.3%	5.12	5.29	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	53	224	54	21	6	100%	5.3	24.1%	9.3%	14.7%	2.9%	4.30	4.22	+0.7
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIN	17	17	92	388	96	34	11	100%	5.4	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	2.8%	4.17	4.08	+1.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIN	19	19	108	456	114	39	13	100%	5.7	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	2.8%	4.06	3.99	+1.8
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIN	19	19	114	481	122	40	14	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.3%	17.1%	2.8%	3.99	3.94	+2.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIN	20	20	118	498	128	41	14	100%	5.9	25.6%	8.3%	17.3%	2.8%	3.95	3.92	+2.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIN	20	20	117	494	126	41	14	100%	5.8	25.6%	8.4%	17.2%	2.9%	3.95	3.95	+2.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIN	19	19	113	477	122	41	14	100%	5.9	25.5%	8.5%	16.9%	3.0%	4.00	4.04	+1.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	107	452	114	40	14	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.8%	16.5%	3.1%	4.10	4.17	+1.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	97	410	102	37	14	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.1%	15.8%	3.3%	4.25	4.35	+1.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	87	367	90	35	13	100%	6.2	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	3.5%	4.43	4.55	+0.9
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	77	325	78	32	12	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.8%	4.64	4.78	+0.6
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	67	283	67	29	12	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.3%	13.3%	4.1%	4.87	5.03	+0.3
2040	34	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	56	236	54	25	10	100%	6.2	23.0%	10.8%	12.2%	4.4%	5.13	5.30	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		206	206	1204	5083	1264	454	161	100%	5.8	24.9%	8.9%	15.9%	3.2%	4.22	3.87	+22.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	210	75	27	100%	5.8	24.9%	8.9%	15.9%	3.2%	4.22	3.87	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		26	25	90	398	79	45	9	96%	3.4	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	2.3%	5.02	4.10	+19.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	56	200	888	176	99	20	96%	3.4	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	2.3%	5.02	4.10	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 13 IPFIP 1.67 → 2.36 (+0.69)K% 28.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.30%	—	×0.770	21.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.150	8.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.962	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 1.67 → 2.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 74 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.30 (+1.16)K% 26.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.36%	—	×0.740	19.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.180	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.962	×1.300	2.46%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Charlee Soto (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.08	24.6%	15.8%	358	-0.35	—	—	—
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	87
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	87
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	87
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	85
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	84
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	82
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	82
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	82
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	81
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	81
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	81
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	81
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	81
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	81
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	80
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	80
C.J. Culpepper R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP	3.55	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	.291	4.11	19.2%	7.7%	192	+0.56	3.30	278	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.3	104	24.7%	9.0%	1.21	4.22
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Ian Kennedy ('23)	9.5	146	21.9%	8.0%	1.32	4.16
Woodie Fryman ('66-'83, 21 WAR*)	12.1	142	21.1%*	8.8%*	1.09*	4.43*
Don Robinson ('78-'92, 16 WAR*)	9.8	131	20.5%*	7.8%*	1.26*	4.41*
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*