C.J. Culpepper — OGILVIE

C.J. Culpepper P St. Paul Saints

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 193 lbs AAA peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%16.4%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%2.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.94	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	86	358	89	31	4	100%	4.1	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	1.4%	3.56	3.55	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	86	358	89	31	4	100%	4.1	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	1.4%	3.56	3.55	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	86	358	89	31	4	100%	4.1	24.9%	8.7%	16.2%	1.1%	3.56	2.72	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	58	239	64	18	3	94%	3.6	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	1.6%	3.55	3.30	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	58	239	64	18	3	94%	3.6	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	1.6%	3.55	3.30	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	58	239	64	18	3	94%	3.6	26.8%	7.5%	19.2%	1.3%	3.55	2.50	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	59	250	53	31	4	100%	3.5	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	2.1%	2.43	4.73	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	59	250	53	31	4	100%	3.5	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	2.1%	2.43	4.73	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	59	250	53	31	4	100%	3.5	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	1.6%	2.43	3.76	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	41	7	79	346	82	43	8	17%	1.9	19.5%	11.8%	7.8%	2.6%	4.00	4.35	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	41	7	79	346	82	43	8	17%	1.9	19.5%	11.8%	7.8%	2.6%	4.00	4.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	MIN	6	6	22	96	26	10	1	100%	3.7	27.1%	10.4%	16.7%	1.0%	3.22	2.70	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	MIN	35	1	56	250	56	33	7	3%	1.6	22.4%	13.2%	9.2%	2.8%	4.31	4.42	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIN	6	0	6	26	4	4	1	0%	1.0	16.4%	13.8%	2.6%	2.7%	5.31	5.31	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	85	372	86	47	9	—	—	23.2%	12.5%	10.7%	2.3%	4.10	4.42	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	74	0	78	329	58	42	9	0%	1.1	17.6%	12.7%	4.9%	2.7%	5.13	5.08	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	74	0	78	329	60	41	9	0%	1.1	18.3%	12.4%	5.8%	2.7%	5.03	5.00	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	73	0	77	324	60	40	9	0%	1.1	18.5%	12.3%	6.2%	2.8%	5.00	5.01	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	71	0	74	315	58	39	9	0%	1.0	18.5%	12.4%	6.1%	2.9%	5.04	5.07	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	68	0	71	300	55	38	9	0%	1.0	18.3%	12.6%	5.6%	3.0%	5.14	5.20	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	64	0	67	282	51	36	9	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	3.2%	5.28	5.38	-0.6
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIN	36	0	38	160	28	20	4	0%	1.1	17.6%	12.7%	4.9%	2.7%	5.13	5.08	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	51	0	54	228	42	28	6	0%	1.1	18.3%	12.4%	5.8%	2.7%	5.03	5.00	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	58	0	61	258	48	32	7	0%	1.1	18.5%	12.3%	6.2%	2.8%	5.00	5.01	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	60	0	63	266	49	33	8	0%	1.1	18.5%	12.4%	6.1%	2.9%	5.04	5.07	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	60	0	63	266	49	34	8	0%	1.1	18.3%	12.6%	5.6%	3.0%	5.14	5.20	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	57	0	60	253	45	33	8	0%	1.1	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	3.2%	5.28	5.38	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		324	0	340	1434	261	180	42	0%	1.0	18.2%	12.6%	5.6%	2.9%	5.10	4.75	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	106	25	0%	1.1	18.2%	12.6%	5.6%	2.9%	5.10	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		96	60	283	1198	225	134	23	62%	3.0	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	1.9%	3.43	3.98	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	42	200	846	159	94	16	63%	3.0	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	1.9%	3.43	3.98	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
C.J. Culpepper (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	16.4%	13.8%	2.7%	—	5.03	18.1%	5.6%	233	-0.28	—	—	—
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	86
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	84
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	83
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	83
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	83
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	82
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	82
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	81
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	81
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	81
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	81
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	79
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	79
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	79
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	78
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	78
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	78
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	77
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	77
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	73	18.0%	12.7%	1.10	5.13
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41