C.J. Culpepper — OGILVIE

C.J. Culpepper P Wichita Wind Surge

+0.0 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 193 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.2%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.3%

IP59

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2027

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	20	ROK	FCL Twins	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
2023	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	21	86	358	89	31	4	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	3.56	3.54	+1.6
2024	22	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	16	15	58	239	64	18	3	21.0%	8.5%	1.7%	3.55	3.33	+1.1
2025	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	17	17	59	250	53	31	4	15.8%	14.3%	2.1%	2.43	4.73	+0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	3	3	12	49	10	8	0	—	—	—	2.25	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	MIN	59	—	59	248	47	32	7	19.0%	12.8%	2.7%	4.97	4.97	-0.0
2026 Total	24	MLB	MIN	—	—	71	297	57	40	7	19.2%	13.4%	2.2%	4.51	4.13	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	MIN	59	—	59	251	50	30	7	19.8%	12.0%	2.7%	4.85	4.81	+0.1
2028	26	MLB	MIN	59	—	59	251	51	30	7	20.3%	11.8%	2.7%	4.78	4.75	+0.1
2029	27	MLB	MIN	59	—	59	249	51	29	7	20.5%	11.7%	2.8%	4.75	4.74	+0.1
2030	28	MLB	MIN	58	—	58	245	50	29	7	20.5%	11.7%	2.8%	4.75	4.76	+0.1
2031	29	MLB	MIN	57	—	57	240	49	28	7	20.4%	11.8%	2.8%	4.78	4.80	+0.1
2032	30	MLB	MIN	55	—	55	233	47	28	7	20.2%	11.9%	2.9%	4.83	4.87	+0.0
2033	31	MLB	MIN	53	—	53	225	45	27	7	19.9%	12.0%	3.0%	4.90	4.94	+0.0
2034	32	MLB	MIN	51	—	51	216	42	26	7	19.7%	12.1%	3.0%	4.98	5.03	-0.0
2035	33	MLB	MIN	49	—	49	206	40	25	6	19.4%	12.3%	3.1%	5.07	5.12	-0.1
2036	34	MLB	MIN	46	—	46	196	37	25	6	19.0%	12.5%	3.2%	5.17	5.23	-0.1
2037	35	MLB	MIN	44	—	44	185	34	23	6	18.6%	12.7%	3.3%	5.28	5.36	-0.2
2038	36	MLB	MIN	41	—	41	173	31	22	6	18.2%	13.0%	3.5%	5.40	5.49	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			58	56	217	901	168	101	14	18.6%	11.2%	1.6%	3.16	3.81	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—			54	52	200	832	155	93	13	18.6%	11.2%	1.6%	3.16	3.81	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
C.J. Culpepper (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	19.0%	12.8%	2.7%	—	4.77	20.2%	8.4%	178	-0.20	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	95
David Trexler R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	17.7%	13.4%	2.3%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.14	4.44	100	93
David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	25	SW	4.42	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.32	15.6%	5.5%	168	+0.90	4.42	239	93
Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	3.96	20.3%	11.1%	143	-0.28	3.84	206	92
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.72	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.14	4.04	404	91
Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SW	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	5.00	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.44	4.56	120	91
Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.59 FIP	25	SW	4.59	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.54	16.5%	2.8%	182	-0.05	3.49	237	90
Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.75 FIP	24	SW	4.75	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.75	124	90
Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	90
Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SW	4.56	19.8%	15.3%	2.2%	.283	4.53	18.5%	9.4%	111	-0.03	3.33	223	89
Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	24	SW	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.39	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.05	4.15	172	89
Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.69 FIP	25	SW	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.58	151	89
Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	24	SW	4.00	22.4%	13.6%	2.0%	.331	4.03	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.03	3.31	213	88
Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	24	SW	3.86	20.6%	10.4%	2.2%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.03	3.40	134	88
Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	24	SW	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.42	155	88
Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	24	SW	4.91	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.68	22.3%	12.1%	127	-0.23	3.38	188	88
Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	24	SW	4.16	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	4.19	16.8%	7.5%	66	+0.03	4.16	135	88
Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP	25	SW	4.07	17.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.80	4.07	120	88
Jack Sinclair R 2026 · 4.92 FIP	24	SW	4.92	19.2%	12.5%	3.4%	.258	4.01	20.2%	8.2%	121	-0.91	2.86	245	88
Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	22.7%	15.4%	2.7%	.298	4.70	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.09	4.23	222	87

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.