C.J. Culpepper
P
St. Paul Saints
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 193 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140130vR 121
ERA5.36
FIP5.36
K%16.4%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%2.4%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.94 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 4.10 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 86 | 358 | 89 | 31 | 4 | 100% | 4.1 | 18.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 3.56 | 3.52 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 86 | 358 | 89 | 31 | 4 | 100% | 4.1 | 24.9% | 8.7% | 16.2% | 1.1% | 3.56 | 2.72 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 58 | 239 | 64 | 18 | 3 | 94% | 3.6 | 21.0% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 3.55 | 3.41 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 58 | 239 | 64 | 18 | 3 | 94% | 3.6 | 26.8% | 7.5% | 19.2% | 1.3% | 3.55 | 2.50 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 59 | 250 | 53 | 31 | 4 | 100% | 3.5 | 15.8% | 14.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.43 | 4.75 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 59 | 250 | 53 | 31 | 4 | 100% | 3.5 | 21.2% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 2.43 | 3.76 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 26 | 6 | 54 | 234 | 58 | 28 | 3 | 23% | 2.1 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 8.3% | 1.5% | 3.17 | 3.74 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIN | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 47 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 14.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.36 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 14.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.36 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 121 | 518 | 105 | 68 | 11 | — | — | 20.2% | 13.1% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 4.38 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 7 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 16.4% | 14.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.36 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 51 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.6% | 12.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 5.17 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 52 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.3% | 12.6% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 5.07 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 52 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 12.5% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 51 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.07 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 25 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.6% | 12.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 5.17 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 36 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.3% | 12.6% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 5.07 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 41 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.5% | 12.5% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 43 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.07 | 5.10 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 32 | 195 | 823 | 150 | 104 | 23 | 84% | 5.1 | 18.2% | 12.7% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 154 | 107 | 24 | 83% | 5.1 | 18.2% | 12.7% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 81 | 59 | 259 | 1086 | 207 | 123 | 18 | 73% | 3.2 | 19.0% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 1.6% | 3.20 | 3.83 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 46 | 200 | 840 | 160 | 95 | 14 | 73% | 3.2 | 19.0% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 1.6% | 3.20 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| C.J. Culpepper (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.36 | 16.4% | 14.0% | 2.7% | — | 5.07 | 18.1% | 5.5% | 203 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 86 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 84 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.59 | 12.9% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .351 | 3.81 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 146 | -0.78 | 3.50 | 219 | 84 |
| Ramsey David R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 81 |
| Paul Clemens R 2029 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 81 |
| Sam Whiting R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.13 | 14.3% | 15.1% | 2.4% | .309 | 7.73 | 17.8% | 2.4% | 17 | +2.60 | 4.17 | 152 | 80 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 17.0% | 14.3% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.05 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 99 | -0.30 | 3.59 | 327 | 80 |
| Carlson Reed R 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 79 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 79 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 79 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 79 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 78 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.30 | 16.1% | 17.9% | 2.4% | .285 | 4.38 | 20.9% | 5.2% | 137 | -0.92 | 4.13 | 217 | 78 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 78 |
| Andrew Thurman R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 6.01 | 14.4% | 16.9% | 3.6% | .291 | 2.59 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 25 | -3.42 | 2.59 | 237 | 78 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.62 | 16.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 5.64 | 15.5% | -1.3% | 46 | +1.02 | 4.62 | 195 | 78 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 78 |
| Casey Steward R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 77 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.52 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 4.5% | .257 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 3.7% | 127 | -0.50 | 4.07 | 378 | 77 |
| Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.87 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 70 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 143 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 17.9% | 12.9% | 1.07 | 5.14 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |