C.J. Culpepper

P St. Paul Saints

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 193 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#846ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	16	15	58	3.55	2.50	26.8%	7.5%	—	K 21.0% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.30
2025	23	MIX3 levels	17	17	59	2.43	3.76	21.2%	12.4%	—	K 15.8% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.73
2026	24	MIX2 levels	42	7	80	4.29	3.95	23.8%	12.5%	—	K 20.1% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.28
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIN	1	1	7	4.88	4.88	19.7%	12.1%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	26	MLBMIN	4	4	26	4.78	4.74	21.0%	11.7%	0.2
2029PROJ53% MLB	27	MLBMIN	6	6	33	4.74	4.74	21.1%	11.5%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.8M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.8 / P90 3.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsShohei Tomioka (age 25) · Hunter Adkins (age 25) · Cameron Foster (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%19.7%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.94	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	86	358	89	31	4	100%	4.1	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	1.4%	3.56	3.55	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	86	358	89	31	4	100%	4.1	24.9%	8.7%	16.2%	1.1%	3.56	2.72	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	58	239	64	18	3	94%	3.6	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	1.6%	3.55	3.30	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	58	239	64	18	3	94%	3.6	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	1.6%	3.55	3.30	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	58	239	64	18	3	94%	3.6	26.8%	7.5%	19.2%	1.3%	3.55	2.50	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	59	250	53	31	4	100%	3.5	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	2.1%	2.43	4.73	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	59	250	53	31	4	100%	3.5	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	2.1%	2.43	4.73	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	59	250	53	31	4	100%	3.5	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	1.6%	2.43	3.76	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	7	80	353	84	44	8	17%	1.9	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	2.5%	4.29	4.28	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	7	80	353	84	44	8	17%	1.9	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	2.5%	4.29	4.28	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	7	80	353	84	44	8	17%	1.9	23.8%	12.5%	11.3%	2.3%	4.29	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIN	1	1	7	30	6	4	1	100%	7.0	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	2.8%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	70	296	62	35	8	100%	5.8	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	2.8%	4.77	4.73	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	63	266	56	31	8	100%	5.7	21.1%	11.5%	9.6%	2.9%	4.73	4.73	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	65	273	63	29	8	100%	5.9	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	3.0%	4.60	4.52	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	60	251	57	27	8	100%	6.0	22.8%	10.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.63	4.65	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	53	225	51	25	8	100%	5.9	22.4%	11.2%	11.3%	3.3%	4.75	4.83	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	26	110	23	13	3	100%	6.5	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	2.8%	4.78	4.74	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	33	139	29	16	4	100%	5.5	21.1%	11.5%	9.6%	2.9%	4.74	4.74	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	42	177	41	19	5	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	3.0%	4.61	4.53	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	42	177	40	19	6	100%	6.0	22.8%	10.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.64	4.66	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	41	173	39	19	6	100%	5.9	22.4%	11.2%	11.3%	3.3%	4.76	4.84	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	184	778	173	87	24	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	3.1%	4.70	4.31	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	94	26	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	3.1%	4.70	4.31	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		97	60	284	1205	228	135	23	62%	2.9	19.0%	11.2%	7.8%	1.9%	3.51	3.96	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	42	200	848	161	95	16	62%	2.9	19.0%	11.2%	7.8%	1.9%	3.51	3.96	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 57 IPFIP 4.37 → 4.61 (+0.25)K% 22.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.57%	—	×0.860	19.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.23%	—	×0.900	11.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.37 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 22 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.39 (+0.68)K% 27.1% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.08%	—	×0.810	21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×1.100	11.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.25%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 54 IPFIP 4.05 → 4.73 (+0.68)K% 19.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.48%	—	×0.810	15.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.99%	—	×1.100	14.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷0.986	×1.200	2.11%

Result: FIP 4.05 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 37 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.69 (+0.72)K% 28.9% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.86%	—	×0.770	22.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.38%	—	×1.150	8.49%
HR / BF /BF	0.67%	÷1.191	×1.250	0.70%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 21 IPFIP 3.33 → 4.32 (+0.99)K% 23.3% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.33%	—	×0.810	18.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.78%	—	×1.100	8.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.845	×1.200	3.16%

Result: FIP 3.33 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 46 IPFIP 2.28 → 3.32 (+1.04)K% 29.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.44%	—	×0.740	21.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.180	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷0.976	×1.300	1.48%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.28 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 40 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.77 (+0.63)K% 20.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.22%	—	×0.770	15.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.99%	—	×1.150	10.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.134	×1.250	1.24%

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
C.J. Culpepper (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.66	21.7%	10.4%	198	-0.22	—	—	—
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	84
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	83
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	83
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	83
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	83
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	81
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	81
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	80
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	80
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	79
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	79
Corey Baker R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SW	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	4.97	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.20	3.06	267	79
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	79
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	79
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	78
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	78
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	78
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	78
Erich Uelmen R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	25	SW	5.32	17.9%	11.0%	4.3%	.267	3.88	19.9%	9.1%	112	-1.44	3.48	383	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	63	21.6%	11.4%	1.15	4.73
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12