Aldrin Batista

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#264ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	MIX2 levels	15	12	63	3.16	1.97	29.0%	8.5%	—	K 20.2% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.01
2024	21	MIX2 levels	22	22	111	2.93	3.00	25.5%	8.6%	—	K 19.1% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.30
2025	22	A+CWS	7	2	14	5.79	2.17	25.8%	10.6%	—	K 19.8% · BB 12.2% · FIP 2.97
2026	23	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	24	MLBCWS	1	1	1	4.47	4.47	21.9%	9.9%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCWS	8	8	48	4.40	4.36	22.5%	9.2%	0.6
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCWS	12	12	69	4.35	4.32	22.8%	9.0%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$3M

CompsRorik Maltrud (age 24) · Will Warren (age 24) · Jack Wenninger (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%21.9%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP131

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	13	11	41	177	38	23	1	85%	3.1	14.6%	16.2%	-1.6%	0.8%	1.55	4.35	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	13	11	41	177	38	23	1	85%	3.1	21.5%	13.0%	8.5%	0.6%	1.55	3.25	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	63	259	75	22	1	80%	4.2	20.2%	10.4%	9.7%	0.5%	3.16	3.01	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	63	259	75	22	1	80%	4.2	29.0%	8.5%	20.5%	0.4%	3.16	1.97	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	455	116	39	8	100%	5.0	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	2.8%	2.93	4.30	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	455	116	39	8	100%	5.0	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	2.8%	2.93	4.30	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	111	455	116	39	8	100%	5.0	25.5%	8.6%	16.9%	1.8%	2.93	3.00	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	7	2	14	66	17	7	0	29%	2.0	19.8%	12.2%	7.6%	0.0%	5.79	2.97	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	7	2	14	66	17	7	0	29%	2.0	19.8%	12.2%	7.6%	0.0%	5.79	2.97	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	7	2	14	66	17	7	0	29%	2.0	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	0.0%	5.79	2.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CWS	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	21.9%	9.9%	12.1%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	111	467	105	43	14	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.2%	13.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.33	+1.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	103	437	99	39	13	100%	6.1	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	2.9%	4.32	4.29	+1.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	99	417	95	38	12	100%	6.2	22.7%	9.0%	13.7%	3.0%	4.32	4.33	+1.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	94	395	89	36	12	100%	5.8	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	3.1%	4.37	4.41	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	87	367	82	34	12	100%	6.2	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	3.2%	4.47	4.54	+0.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	79	333	73	32	11	100%	6.1	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.4%	4.62	4.72	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	70	296	64	30	11	100%	5.9	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	3.6%	4.80	4.92	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	CWS	10	10	62	260	55	27	10	100%	6.2	21.1%	10.4%	10.7%	3.9%	5.01	5.15	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	48	203	46	19	6	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.2%	13.4%	2.9%	4.40	4.36	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	69	291	66	26	9	100%	5.8	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	3.0%	4.35	4.32	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	76	321	73	29	10	100%	5.8	22.7%	9.0%	13.7%	3.0%	4.35	4.36	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	79	334	75	31	10	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.44	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	76	321	72	30	10	100%	5.8	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	3.3%	4.50	4.57	+0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	71	300	66	29	10	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.5%	4.65	4.75	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	64	270	58	27	10	100%	5.8	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	3.7%	4.83	4.95	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	57	241	51	25	10	100%	5.7	21.1%	10.4%	10.7%	4.0%	5.05	5.19	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	90	540	2278	507	216	75	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.5%	12.8%	3.3%	4.55	4.22	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	80	28	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.5%	12.8%	3.3%	4.55	4.22	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		57	47	228	957	178	110	15	82%	4.0	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	1.6%	2.92	3.87	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	41	200	839	156	96	14	82%	4.0	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	1.6%	2.92	3.87	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 14 IPFIP 2.27 → 2.97 (+0.70)K% 25.8% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.76%	—	×0.770	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.61%	—	×1.150	12.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.923	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.27 → 2.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 85 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.91 (+1.47)K% 24.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.44%	—	×0.740	18.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.27%	—	×1.180	10.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷0.820	×1.300	3.56%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 26 IPFIP 1.39 → 2.08 (+0.68)K% 29.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.29%	—	×0.770	22.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.150	6.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.817	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.39 → 2.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Dodgers · 39 IPFIP 1.80 → 3.12 (+1.32)K% 33.1% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.13%	—	×0.680	22.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.20%	—	×1.250	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.61%	÷1.005	×1.400	0.85%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 1.80 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 24 IPFIP 2.18 → 2.82 (+0.65)K% 21.9% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.88%	—	×0.740	16.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.29%	—	×1.180	8.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.861	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.18 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL LAD Bautista · 41 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.35 (+1.10)K% 21.5% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.47%	—	×0.680	14.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.99%	—	×1.250	16.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷1.028	×1.400	0.77%

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aldrin Batista (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.32	22.7%	13.6%	313	-0.15	—	—	—
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	89
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	85
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	85
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	84
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	84
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.70	666	83
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	24	SP-	4.43	21.5%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.80	20.9%	14.6%	156	-0.63	2.39	500	83
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	83
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	83
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	83
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	82
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	82
Kyle Lloyd R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP-	4.03	18.3%	8.1%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.3%	8.9%	324	-0.23	3.50	572	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	82
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	82
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	81
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	81
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	81
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	81
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	93	22.2%	9.5%	1.21	4.49
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Mike Paul ('68-'74, 2 WAR*)	3.1	105	22.4%*	8.7%*	1.22*	4.77*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71