Aldrin Batista — OGILVIE

Aldrin Batista P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%20.6%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—50

CMD4055

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.2M
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	13	11	41	177	38	23	1	85%	3.1	14.6%	16.2%	-1.6%	0.8%	1.55	4.35	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	13	11	41	177	38	23	1	85%	3.1	21.5%	13.0%	8.5%	0.6%	1.55	3.25	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	63	259	75	22	1	80%	4.2	20.2%	10.4%	9.7%	0.5%	3.16	3.01	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	63	259	75	22	1	80%	4.2	20.2%	10.4%	9.7%	0.5%	3.16	3.01	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	63	259	75	22	1	80%	4.2	29.0%	8.5%	20.5%	0.4%	3.16	1.97	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	455	116	39	8	100%	5.0	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	2.8%	2.93	4.30	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	455	116	39	8	100%	5.0	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	2.8%	2.93	4.30	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	111	455	116	39	8	100%	5.0	25.5%	8.6%	16.9%	1.8%	2.93	3.00	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	7	2	14	66	17	7	0	29%	2.0	19.8%	12.2%	7.6%	0.0%	5.79	2.97	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	7	2	14	66	17	7	0	29%	2.0	19.8%	12.2%	7.6%	0.0%	5.79	2.97	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	7	2	14	66	17	7	0	29%	2.0	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	0.0%	5.79	2.17	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	CWS	2	2	11	46	10	5	1	100%	5.5	20.6%	10.0%	10.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	24	24	134	566	123	52	16	100%	5.6	21.7%	9.1%	12.6%	2.8%	4.39	4.32	+0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	136	573	128	50	16	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.7%	13.7%	2.8%	4.27	4.20	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	136	573	130	49	16	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	2.8%	4.22	4.17	+1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	134	565	128	49	16	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	2.8%	4.22	4.21	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	130	548	123	48	16	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	2.9%	4.27	4.30	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	124	523	117	47	16	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	3.1%	4.37	4.43	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	116	492	108	46	16	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.3%	12.6%	3.3%	4.51	4.61	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	109	459	99	44	16	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.7%	11.9%	3.5%	4.69	4.81	+0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	100	424	89	43	16	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.1%	11.0%	3.8%	4.90	5.04	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	58	245	53	22	7	100%	5.8	21.7%	9.1%	12.6%	2.8%	4.42	4.35	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	90	380	85	33	11	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.7%	13.7%	2.8%	4.30	4.23	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	108	456	103	39	13	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	2.8%	4.25	4.20	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	19	19	114	481	109	41	14	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	2.9%	4.25	4.24	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	19	19	115	486	109	43	14	100%	6.1	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	3.0%	4.30	4.33	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	19	19	113	477	106	43	15	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	3.1%	4.40	4.46	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	107	452	99	42	15	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.3%	12.6%	3.3%	4.54	4.64	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	101	426	92	41	15	100%	5.9	21.5%	9.7%	11.9%	3.6%	4.72	4.84	+0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	94	397	84	40	15	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.1%	11.0%	3.8%	4.94	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		151	151	900	3800	841	344	119	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.1%	13.1%	3.1%	4.45	4.10	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	76	26	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.1%	13.1%	3.1%	4.45	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		57	47	228	957	178	110	15	82%	4.0	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	1.6%	2.92	3.87	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	41	200	839	156	96	14	82%	4.0	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	1.6%	2.92	3.87	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aldrin Batista (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	20.6%	10.0%	2.8%	—	4.23	22.3%	13.5%	405	-0.29	—	—	—
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	86
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	86
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	84
Kyle Lloyd R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP-	4.03	18.3%	8.1%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.3%	8.9%	324	-0.23	3.50	572	84
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	83
Angel Ventura R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP-	4.28	17.9%	10.9%	2.4%	.285	4.66	14.8%	4.8%	153	+0.38	3.42	393	83
Mitch Spence R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.54	18.7%	11.6%	445	+0.42	4.12	747	83
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	83
Carson Spiers R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP-	3.78	22.2%	8.8%	2.6%	.284	4.70	19.4%	10.5%	355	+0.92	3.71	511	82
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	82
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	82
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	82
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.97	19.8%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.83	573	82
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	81
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	81
Kyle Wright R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	21.1%	8.6%	3.5%	.307	3.62	22.1%	13.8%	355	-0.70	3.32	669	81
Hunter Wood R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	18.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.307	3.71	25.5%	18.2%	140	-0.74	2.89	483	81
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	81
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.2	125	22.0%	9.1%	1.17	4.42
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45