Reiner Herrera
C Hill City Howlers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL CLE Goryl | 141 | .274/.406/.381 | 2 | 1 | 40 | — | .175/.283/.233 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROKCLE | 173 | .239/.368/.415 | 5 | 3 | 46 | — | .166/.263/.272 |
| 2026 | 20 | A/ROKCLE | 305 | .297/.455/.603 | 18 | 18 | 120 | — | .227/.346/.452 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBCLE | 415 | .228/.314/.379 | 12 | 7 | 97 | 0.8 | |
| 2028PROJ48% MLB | 22 | MLBCLE | 116 | .231/.317/.385 | 3 | 2 | 99 | 0.5 | |
| 2029PROJ68% MLB | 23 | MLBCLE | 226 | .233/.319/.390 | 7 | 3 | 101 | 1.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Guardians Blue | — | 92 | 77 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 337 | 260 | 597 | 52 | 314 | 28 | 11 | 290 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Goryl | — | 141 | 113 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 274 | 406 | 381 | 786 | 106 | 315 | 16 | 16 | 356 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | — | 173 | 142 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 239 | 368 | 415 | 784 | 176 | 274 | 19 | 13 | 351 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Hill City Howlers | — | 153 | 121 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 273 | 414 | 496 | 910 | 223 | 292 | 17 | 17 | 401 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Guardians | — | 152 | 111 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 26 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 324 | 497 | 721 | 1.217 | 396 | 325 | 17 | 22 | 502 | 134 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Guardians Blue | — | 92 | 80 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 138 | 250 | 175 | 425 | 37 | 214 | 35 | 8 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Goryl | — | 141 | 120 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 175 | 283 | 233 | 516 | 58 | 197 | 21 | 11 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 173 | 151 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 166 | 263 | 272 | 535 | 106 | 207 | 27 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Hill City Howlers | — | 153 | 131 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 35 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 229 | 336 | 405 | 740 | 176 | 264 | 23 | 11 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 152 | 124 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 37 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 226 | 356 | 500 | 856 | 274 | 231 | 24 | 14 | 366 | 134 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Guardians Blue | — | 92 | 80 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 138 | 250 | 175 | 425 | 37 | 229 | 35 | 8 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Guardians Blue | — | 92 | 77 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 337 | 260 | 597 | 52 | 314 | 28 | 11 | 290 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Goryl | — | 141 | 120 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 175 | 283 | 233 | 516 | 58 | 215 | 21 | 11 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL CLE Goryl | — | 141 | 113 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 274 | 406 | 381 | 786 | 106 | 315 | 16 | 16 | 356 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 173 | 151 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 166 | 263 | 272 | 535 | 106 | 212 | 27 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Guardians | — | 173 | 142 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 239 | 368 | 415 | 784 | 176 | 274 | 19 | 13 | 351 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 305 | 255 | 58 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 73 | 8 | 18 | 8 | 227 | 346 | 451 | 796 | 224 | 251 | 24 | 12 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 305 | 232 | 69 | 11 | 3 | 18 | 60 | 52 | 8 | 18 | 8 | 297 | 455 | 603 | 1.059 | 306 | 307 | 17 | 20 | 451 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Guardians Blue | — | 92 | 80 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 138 | 250 | 175 | 425 | 37 | 214 | 35 | 8 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Goryl | — | 141 | 122 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 283 | 230 | 512 | 57 | 197 | 21 | 11 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 173 | 151 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 166 | 263 | 272 | 535 | 106 | 207 | 27 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 305 | 256 | 58 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 73 | 8 | 18 | 8 | 227 | 346 | 449 | 795 | 223 | 248 | 24 | 12 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Goryl | — | 141 | 122 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 283 | 230 | 512 | 57 | 197 | 21 | 11 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 173 | 151 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 166 | 263 | 272 | 535 | 106 | 207 | 27 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 305 | 256 | 58 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 73 | 8 | 18 | 8 | 227 | 346 | 449 | 795 | 223 | 248 | 24 | 12 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | CLE | 0% | 415 | 366 | 83 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 94 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 228 | 314 | 379 | 694 | 152 | 271 | 23 | 10 | 311 | 97 | -2 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 0.8 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | CLE | 48% | 240 | 211 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 53 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 317 | 387 | 703 | 156 | 273 | 22 | 10 | 315 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 1.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | CLE | 68% | 332 | 292 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 73 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 233 | 319 | 392 | 710 | 159 | 274 | 22 | 10 | 318 | 101 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 1.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | CLE | 74% | 394 | 347 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 87 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 235 | 320 | 395 | 715 | 160 | 276 | 22 | 10 | 320 | 102 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 1.7 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | CLE | 77% | 428 | 378 | 89 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 41 | 94 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 236 | 321 | 397 | 718 | 161 | 277 | 22 | 10 | 320 | 103 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +9 | 1.9 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | CLE | 78% | 445 | 393 | 93 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 43 | 98 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 236 | 320 | 397 | 718 | 161 | 277 | 22 | 10 | 320 | 103 | +2 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +10 | 2.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | CLE | 77% | 445 | 393 | 93 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 43 | 98 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 235 | 319 | 394 | 714 | 159 | 277 | 22 | 10 | 319 | 102 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +10 | 1.9 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | CLE | 77% | 445 | 393 | 91 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 99 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 233 | 317 | 390 | 707 | 157 | 276 | 22 | 10 | 316 | 100 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | CLE | 75% | 440 | 389 | 90 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 42 | 100 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 231 | 314 | 383 | 698 | 153 | 274 | 23 | 10 | 312 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 1.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | CLE | 73% | 428 | 380 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 40 | 98 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 227 | 311 | 375 | 686 | 148 | 272 | 23 | 9 | 308 | 94 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +9 | 1.2 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | CLE | 73% | 393 | 348 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 92 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 223 | 306 | 365 | 671 | 142 | 269 | 23 | 9 | 302 | 90 | -5 | -2 | -3 | +7 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB MLE | CLE | 72% | 355 | 315 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 85 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 218 | 300 | 352 | 652 | 134 | 265 | 24 | 9 | 294 | 85 | -6 | -2 | -4 | +6 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB MLE | CLE | 79% | 303 | 269 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 74 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 211 | 292 | 337 | 629 | 126 | 260 | 24 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -8 | -9 | -4 | +5 | +7 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | CLE | 48% | 116 | 102 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 317 | 385 | 701 | 154 | 272 | 22 | 9 | 314 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | CLE | 68% | 226 | 199 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 50 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 319 | 390 | 709 | 157 | 274 | 22 | 10 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | CLE | 74% | 292 | 258 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 64 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 235 | 320 | 394 | 714 | 159 | 276 | 22 | 10 | 319 | 102 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 1.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | CLE | 77% | 329 | 289 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 72 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 236 | 321 | 395 | 716 | 159 | 277 | 22 | 10 | 320 | 103 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 1.5 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | CLE | 78% | 348 | 307 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 77 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 236 | 320 | 396 | 716 | 159 | 277 | 22 | 9 | 320 | 103 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +8 | 1.5 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | CLE | 77% | 343 | 302 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 76 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 235 | 319 | 393 | 712 | 158 | 277 | 22 | 10 | 318 | 102 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 1.5 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | CLE | 77% | 341 | 300 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 76 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 233 | 317 | 388 | 705 | 155 | 276 | 22 | 10 | 316 | 100 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 1.3 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | CLE | 75% | 328 | 290 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 74 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 231 | 314 | 382 | 696 | 151 | 274 | 23 | 9 | 312 | 98 | -1 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 1.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | CLE | 73% | 314 | 277 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 72 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 227 | 311 | 374 | 685 | 146 | 272 | 23 | 10 | 307 | 94 | -2 | -0 | -2 | +6 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | CLE | 73% | 286 | 254 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 67 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 223 | 306 | 364 | 670 | 141 | 269 | 23 | 9 | 301 | 90 | -3 | -1 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB CTX | CLE | 72% | 257 | 228 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 61 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 218 | 300 | 351 | 651 | 133 | 265 | 24 | 9 | 294 | 85 | -5 | -2 | -3 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB CTX | CLE | 79% | 238 | 211 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 211 | 292 | 336 | 628 | 125 | 260 | 24 | 9 | 284 | 79 | -6 | -7 | -3 | +4 | +5 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3418 | 3017 | 698 | 124 | 18 | 101 | 326 | 773 | 46 | 38 | 41 | 231 | 316 | 385 | 701 | 153 | 276 | 23 | 10 | 311 | 94 | -13 | -9 | -11 | +61 | +74 | 10.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 574 | 133 | 24 | 3 | 19 | 62 | 147 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 232 | 316 | 383 | 700 | 152 | 277 | 23 | 10 | 311 | 94 | -2 | -2 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 2.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5548 | 4880 | 1096 | 187 | 32 | 159 | 535 | 1274 | 87 | 78 | 62 | 225 | 312 | 374 | 686 | 149 | 269 | 23 | 10 | 307 | 94 | -18 | -10 | -15 | +86 | +105 | 15.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 129 | 22 | 4 | 19 | 63 | 149 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 226 | 314 | 378 | 691 | 152 | 270 | 23 | 10 | 307 | 94 | -2 | -1 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AHill City Howlers · 153 PAwOBA .392 → .326 (−66)K% 17.0% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.99% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 11.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 20.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 3.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 5.98% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .392 → .326; ISO .223 → .188; BABIP .292 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Guardians · 152 PAwOBA .499 → .366 (−132)K% 17.1% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.11% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 13.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 14.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 1.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 9.94% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .499 → .366; ISO .396 → .316; BABIP .325 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Guardians · 173 PAwOBA .346 → .236 (−111)K% 19.1% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.08% | ÷1.041 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.29% | ÷1.018 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 8.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.47% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.10% | ÷0.985 | ×0.820 | ×0.965 | ×0.995 | 16.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.83% | ÷0.982 | ×0.720 | ×0.965 | ×0.995 | 1.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.67% | ÷1.075 | ×0.720 | ×0.965 | ×0.995 | 2.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.59% | ÷1.388 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.56% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 178, 1B 97, 2B 96, 3B 115, K 108, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .346 → .236; ISO .176 → .105; BABIP .274 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL CLE Goryl · 141 PAwOBA .356 → .228 (−127)K% 15.6% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.60% | ÷0.930 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.60% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 10.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.27% | ÷0.994 | ×0.680 | ×0.952 | ×0.995 | 16.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷0.995 | ×0.600 | ×0.952 | ×0.995 | 3.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.600 | ×0.952 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.20% | ÷1.366 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.75% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 173, 1B 99, 2B 99, 3B 108, K 86, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .356 → .228; ISO .106 → .051; BABIP .315 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Guardians Blue · 92 PAwOBA .283 → .192 (−91)K% 28.3% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.26% | ÷1.001 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.87% | ÷1.006 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.43% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷0.991 | ×0.680 | ×0.997 | ×1.008 | 16.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.84% | ÷0.917 | ×0.600 | ×0.997 | ×1.008 | 5.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.600 | ×0.997 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 83, 3B 99, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .283 → .192; ISO .052 → .033; BABIP .314 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).