Cole Young
2B Seattle Mariners| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | AASEA | 552 | .271/.371/.390 | 9 | 23 | 96 | — | .252/.336/.364 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAASEA | 245 | .277/.392/.461 | 5 | 4 | 107 | — | .251/.343/.395 |
| 2025 | 22 | MLBSEA | 257 | .211/.304/.305 | 4 | 1 | 74 | -0.6 | |
| 2026 | 23 | MLBSEA | 638 | .246/.314/.381 | 17 | 4 | 99 | 1.4 | |
| 2027PROJ | 24 | MLBSEA | 597 | .252/.323/.385 | 15 | 6 | 103 | 1.2 | |
| 2028PROJ98% MLB | 25 | MLBSEA | 594 | .253/.324/.387 | 15 | 5 | 104 | 1.2 | |
| 2029PROJ98% MLB | 26 | MLBSEA | 594 | .253/.324/.386 | 15 | 5 | 103 | 1.2 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 19 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 45 | 39 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 385 | 442 | 538 | 980 | 154 | 371 | 9 | 9 | 416 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | — | 26 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 333 | 440 | 476 | 916 | 143 | 389 | 15 | 15 | 393 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 230 | 192 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 38 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 292 | 406 | 479 | 885 | 188 | 336 | 17 | 15 | 393 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 376 | 303 | 81 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 54 | 52 | 14 | 17 | 5 | 267 | 402 | 429 | 831 | 162 | 303 | 14 | 14 | 372 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 552 | 469 | 127 | 25 | 2 | 9 | 67 | 87 | 8 | 23 | 11 | 271 | 371 | 390 | 761 | 119 | 313 | 16 | 12 | 342 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | — | 257 | 223 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 304 | 305 | 609 | 94 | 247 | 18 | 11 | 279 | 74 | -8 | +0 | -6 | +2 | +6 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 245 | 206 | 57 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 277 | 392 | 461 | 853 | 184 | 301 | 11 | 13 | 381 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | — | 638 | 577 | 142 | 19 | 4 | 17 | 44 | 109 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 246 | 314 | 381 | 695 | 135 | 275 | 17 | 7 | 312 | 99 | -1 | -1 | -0 | +2 | +14 | 1.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 895 | 800 | 189 | 26 | 5 | 21 | 72 | 156 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 236 | 311 | 360 | 671 | 124 | 268 | 17 | 8 | 302 | 91 | -10 | -1 | -6 | +4 | +19 | 0.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 45 | 40 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 350 | 395 | 500 | 895 | 150 | 341 | 13 | 7 | 396 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 26 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 261 | 320 | 391 | 711 | 130 | 307 | 23 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 230 | 200 | 51 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 49 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 255 | 349 | 410 | 759 | 155 | 310 | 21 | 11 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 376 | 319 | 76 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 69 | 14 | 17 | 5 | 238 | 345 | 376 | 721 | 138 | 274 | 18 | 10 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 552 | 484 | 122 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 53 | 102 | 8 | 23 | 11 | 252 | 336 | 364 | 699 | 112 | 293 | 18 | 10 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 257 | 224 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 300 | 304 | 604 | 94 | 247 | 18 | 11 | 278 | 74 | -8 | +0 | -6 | +2 | +6 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 245 | 215 | 54 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 251 | 343 | 395 | 738 | 144 | 284 | 13 | 9 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 638 | 577 | 143 | 19 | 4 | 17 | 44 | 109 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 248 | 315 | 383 | 698 | 135 | 275 | 17 | 7 | 315 | 99 | -1 | -1 | -0 | +2 | +14 | 1.4 |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 71 | 63 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 333 | 382 | 476 | 859 | 143 | 358 | 15 | 7 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 71 | 60 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 367 | 441 | 517 | 958 | 150 | 377 | 11 | 11 | 407 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 606 | 519 | 126 | 28 | 7 | 10 | 64 | 118 | 17 | 22 | 10 | 243 | 345 | 382 | 727 | 139 | 292 | 19 | 11 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 606 | 495 | 137 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 88 | 90 | 17 | 22 | 10 | 277 | 403 | 448 | 852 | 172 | 315 | 15 | 15 | 380 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 552 | 484 | 122 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 53 | 102 | 8 | 23 | 11 | 252 | 336 | 364 | 699 | 112 | 300 | 18 | 10 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 552 | 469 | 127 | 25 | 2 | 9 | 67 | 87 | 8 | 23 | 11 | 271 | 371 | 390 | 761 | 119 | 313 | 16 | 12 | 342 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 439 | 101 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 49 | 79 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 230 | 321 | 349 | 670 | 118 | 265 | 16 | 10 | 301 | 90 | -6 | +0 | -6 | +2 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 502 | 429 | 104 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 59 | 75 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 242 | 347 | 380 | 727 | 138 | 274 | 15 | 12 | 329 | 90 | -6 | +0 | -6 | +2 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 638 | 577 | 143 | 19 | 4 | 17 | 44 | 109 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 248 | 315 | 383 | 698 | 135 | 278 | 17 | 7 | 315 | 99 | -1 | -1 | -0 | +2 | +14 | 1.4 |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB RAW | Seattle Mariners | — | 638 | 577 | 142 | 19 | 4 | 17 | 44 | 109 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 246 | 314 | 381 | 695 | 135 | 275 | 17 | 7 | 312 | 99 | -1 | -1 | -0 | +2 | +14 | 1.4 |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 71 | 66 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 318 | 382 | 455 | 837 | 136 | 329 | 15 | 7 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 606 | 520 | 126 | 28 | 7 | 10 | 64 | 118 | 17 | 22 | 10 | 242 | 345 | 381 | 726 | 138 | 288 | 19 | 11 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 552 | 486 | 122 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 53 | 102 | 8 | 23 | 11 | 251 | 336 | 362 | 698 | 111 | 293 | 18 | 10 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 438 | 101 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 49 | 79 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 231 | 321 | 349 | 671 | 119 | 265 | 16 | 10 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 638 | 576 | 143 | 19 | 4 | 17 | 44 | 109 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 248 | 315 | 384 | 699 | 135 | 275 | 17 | 7 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 552 | 486 | 122 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 53 | 102 | 8 | 23 | 11 | 251 | 336 | 362 | 698 | 111 | 293 | 18 | 10 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 438 | 101 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 49 | 79 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 231 | 321 | 349 | 671 | 119 | 265 | 16 | 10 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 638 | 576 | 143 | 19 | 4 | 17 | 44 | 109 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 248 | 315 | 384 | 699 | 135 | 275 | 17 | 7 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | SEA | 100% | 616 | 554 | 141 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 46 | 107 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 255 | 325 | 390 | 715 | 135 | 288 | 17 | 7 | 320 | 103 | +2 | +1 | -6 | +2 | +13 | 1.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | SEA | 100% | 597 | 536 | 136 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 45 | 104 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 252 | 323 | 385 | 708 | 132 | 285 | 17 | 8 | 317 | 103 | +2 | +1 | -6 | +2 | +13 | 1.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | SEA | 98% | 606 | 544 | 139 | 19 | 4 | 16 | 46 | 105 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 255 | 326 | 392 | 718 | 137 | 288 | 17 | 8 | 321 | 104 | +3 | +1 | -6 | +2 | +13 | 1.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | SEA | 98% | 606 | 544 | 139 | 19 | 4 | 16 | 46 | 105 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 255 | 326 | 392 | 718 | 137 | 288 | 17 | 8 | 321 | 103 | +3 | +1 | -6 | +2 | +13 | 1.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | SEA | 98% | 597 | 535 | 136 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 46 | 104 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 254 | 325 | 389 | 714 | 135 | 287 | 17 | 8 | 320 | 102 | +2 | +0 | -6 | +2 | +13 | 1.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | SEA | 98% | 583 | 523 | 131 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 45 | 103 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 252 | 323 | 384 | 707 | 132 | 286 | 18 | 8 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +2 | +13 | 0.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | SEA | 98% | 564 | 506 | 126 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 101 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 320 | 378 | 698 | 128 | 285 | 18 | 8 | 313 | 98 | -1 | -0 | -7 | +2 | +12 | 0.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | SEA | 98% | 548 | 493 | 121 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 41 | 100 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 246 | 317 | 369 | 686 | 123 | 283 | 18 | 7 | 308 | 95 | -3 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB MLE | SEA | 98% | 530 | 477 | 115 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 99 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 241 | 311 | 358 | 670 | 117 | 279 | 19 | 7 | 302 | 90 | -6 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +11 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB MLE | SEA | 98% | 506 | 456 | 108 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 97 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 304 | 345 | 649 | 109 | 275 | 19 | 7 | 293 | 85 | -9 | +0 | -9 | +2 | +11 | -0.5 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB MLE | SEA | 98% | 470 | 426 | 97 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 93 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 296 | 329 | 625 | 100 | 269 | 20 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -12 | +0 | -9 | +2 | +10 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | SEA | 98% | 594 | 533 | 135 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 45 | 103 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 253 | 324 | 387 | 711 | 134 | 286 | 17 | 8 | 318 | 104 | +3 | +1 | -6 | +2 | +13 | 1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | SEA | 98% | 594 | 533 | 135 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 45 | 103 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 253 | 324 | 386 | 710 | 134 | 285 | 17 | 8 | 318 | 103 | +2 | +1 | -6 | +2 | +13 | 1.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | SEA | 98% | 585 | 524 | 132 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 45 | 102 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 252 | 323 | 384 | 707 | 132 | 285 | 17 | 8 | 317 | 102 | +2 | +0 | -6 | +2 | +13 | 1.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | SEA | 98% | 571 | 512 | 129 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 44 | 101 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 250 | 321 | 379 | 700 | 129 | 284 | 18 | 8 | 314 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +2 | +12 | 0.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | SEA | 98% | 553 | 496 | 123 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 42 | 99 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 247 | 318 | 373 | 691 | 125 | 283 | 18 | 8 | 310 | 98 | -1 | -0 | -7 | +2 | +12 | 0.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | SEA | 98% | 537 | 483 | 118 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 98 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 314 | 364 | 679 | 120 | 281 | 18 | 7 | 305 | 95 | -3 | +0 | -7 | +2 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB CTX | SEA | 98% | 519 | 466 | 112 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 97 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 239 | 309 | 354 | 663 | 114 | 277 | 19 | 8 | 299 | 90 | -6 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +11 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB CTX | SEA | 98% | 496 | 449 | 105 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 95 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 302 | 340 | 643 | 107 | 273 | 19 | 7 | 291 | 85 | -9 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +11 | -0.5 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB CTX | SEA | 98% | 461 | 418 | 93 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 91 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 294 | 324 | 619 | 98 | 267 | 20 | 7 | 281 | 78 | -12 | +0 | -9 | +2 | +10 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 5805 | 5214 | 1271 | 172 | 35 | 133 | 441 | 1045 | 101 | 26 | 10 | 244 | 315 | 367 | 682 | 123 | 280 | 18 | 8 | 306 | 97 | -35 | +1 | -69 | +22 | +126 | 4.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 142 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 49 | 117 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 243 | 313 | 366 | 680 | 123 | 279 | 18 | 8 | 306 | 97 | -4 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +14 | 0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 7976 | 7122 | 1761 | 258 | 55 | 178 | 637 | 1430 | 145 | 85 | 36 | 247 | 322 | 374 | 696 | 127 | 285 | 18 | 8 | 312 | 97 | -34 | +2 | -77 | +24 | +141 | 5.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 143 | 21 | 4 | 15 | 52 | 117 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 247 | 321 | 374 | 696 | 128 | 283 | 18 | 8 | 312 | 97 | -3 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +14 | 0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 245 PAwOBA .372 → .326 (−46)K% 11.4% → 13.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.43% | ÷1.035 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.65% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 3.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.10% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×1.012 | ×1.050 | 18.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.30% | ÷0.985 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×1.050 | 6.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.81% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×1.012 | ×1.050 | 2.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.81% | ÷1.204 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.71% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 103, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .372 → .326; ISO .184 → .154; BABIP .301 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAArkansas Travelers · 552 PAwOBA .336 → .310 (−27)K% 15.8% → 18.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.76% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.14% | ÷0.928 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 9.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.82% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×1.050 | 22.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.54% | ÷0.977 | ×0.840 | ×1.000 | ×1.050 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.000 | ×1.050 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.36% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 2.41% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 109, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .336 → .310; ISO .119 → .117; BABIP .313 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AModesto Nuts · 376 PAwOBA .368 → .313 (−54)K% 13.8% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.83% | ÷1.026 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.36% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 10.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.72% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.52% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.030 | 18.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.97% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.030 | 6.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.79% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.030 | 2.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.99% | ÷0.883 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.86% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .368 → .313; ISO .162 → .140; BABIP .303 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Everett AquaSox · 230 PAwOBA .385 → .332 (−53)K% 16.5% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.52% | ÷1.046 | ×1.350 | — | — | 21.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.78% | ÷0.953 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 11.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.08% | ÷1.018 | ×0.910 | ×1.032 | ×1.042 | 21.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | ×1.042 | 7.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.023 | ×0.820 | ×1.032 | ×1.042 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.90% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.042 | 3.33% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 105, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .385 → .332; ISO .188 → .159; BABIP .336 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AModesto Nuts · 45 PAwOBA .423 → .396 (−28)K% 8.9% → 12.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.89% | ÷0.971 | ×1.360 | — | — | 12.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.89% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.14% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 34.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.855 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 5.59% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 109, 2B 112, 3B 112, K 94, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .423 → .396; ISO .154 → .157; BABIP .371 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Mariners · 26 PAwOBA .399 → .303 (−96)K% 15.4% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.984 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.023 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 23.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.132 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 4.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 103, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .399 → .303; ISO .143 → .112; BABIP .389 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).