Reese McGuire

C Chicago White Sox

Age 32 L/R 6'0" / 230 lbs MLB HR +4% Svc 2.634 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLBPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	85	.205/.306/.219	0	1	42	—	.106/.176/.128
2024	29	MLBBOS	158	.209/.286/.295	3	3	61	0.5
2025	30	AAACHC	86	.280/.365/.467	3	2	78	—	.231/.294/.359
2025	30	MLBCHC	140	.226/.248/.444	9	0	89	1.1
2026	31	MLBCWS	34	.172/.273/.172	0	0	33	-0.2
2027PROJ	32	MLBCWS	124	.230/.287/.385	4	1	87	0.3
2028PROJ82% MLB	33	MLBCWS	79	.222/.278/.368	3	0	80	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.634First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$0.2M2029Ext$1M2030Ext$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%41

Bat Spd34

xwOBA15

Avg EV10

Speed10

CompsCarlos Pérez (age 33) · Anthony Recker (age 31) · Elias Díaz (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .287 / .385

PA124

HR4

K%22

BB%6

BABIP260

ISO140

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

xAVG

100.211

POWER50

Barrel%

417.1

Avg EV

1083.5

Bat Spd

3469.7

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

1025.2

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 312 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

292

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

230

269

▶R

ISO

167

118

◀◀L

BABIP

167

244

▶▶R

30.0%

21.2%

▶▶R

BB%

0.0%

6.5%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2018

Service 2.634 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2028	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.9M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	18	ROK	GCL Pirates	—	198	176	58	11	0	0	15	18	3	5	1	330	392	392	784	62	362	9	8	350	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A	West Virginia Power	—	428	389	102	11	4	3	24	44	4	7	2	262	311	334	645	72	284	10	6	286	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	412	374	95	15	0	0	26	39	1	14	7	254	303	294	598	40	280	9	6	268	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	58	51	15	4	1	0	7	7	0	1	0	294	379	412	791	118	341	12	12	357	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	365	319	81	18	2	1	36	34	4	6	6	254	337	332	669	78	280	9	10	304	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	136	115	32	5	1	6	16	19	1	2	1	278	371	496	867	217	283	14	12	371	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	—	26	22	9	2	0	0	3	1	0	0	1	409	480	500	980	91	409	4	12	423	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	56	46	13	0	0	0	10	15	0	1	1	283	411	283	693		419	27	18	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	33	31	9	3	0	2	2	9	0	1	0	290	333	581	914	290	350	27	6	395	153	+2	+0	+0	+7	+1	1.1
2018	23	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	369	322	75	9	2	7	33	77	6	3	2	233	316	339	654	106	281	21	9	294	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	105	97	29	7	0	5	7	18	0	0	0	299	343	526	869	227	324	17	7	378	141	+5	+0	+5	+7	+2	2.0
2019	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	277	243	60	12	1	5	25	44	2	4	0	247	322	366	688	119	276	16	9	305	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	45	41	3	0	0	1	0	11	0	0	0	73	73	146	220	73	69	24	0	86	-55	-8	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.6
2021	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	217	198	50	15	0	1	15	44	2	0	0	253	312	343	655	91	318	20	7	295	86	-4	+0	+13	+4	+5	1.8
2022	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	274	249	67	14	1	3	12	56	3	1	0	269	309	369	679	100	332	20	4	295	80	-7	+0	+10	+5	+6	1.5
2023	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	206	187	50	12	1	1	11	53	1	2	1	267	305	358	664	91	366	26	5	292	77	-6	+0	+5	+4	+4	0.7
2024	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	158	139	29	3	0	3	13	39	2	3	0	209	286	295	581	86	260	25	8	262	61	-7	+1	+4	+4	+3	0.5
2024	29	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	51	44	5	1	0	0	6	15	0	0	0	114	216	136	352	23	172	29	12	178	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	34	29	10	0	0	0	2	6	3	1	0	345	441	345	786		435	18	6	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	140	133	30	2	0	9	4	27	0	0	0	226	248	444	692	218	212	19	3	295	89	-2	+0	+6	+4	+3	1.1
2025	30	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	86	75	21	5	0	3	10	12	0	2	0	280	365	467	831	187	295	14	12	365	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	34	29	5	0	0	0	2	9	2	0	0	172	273	172	445		250	26	6	217	33	-3	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1212	1104	272	56	2	25	66	266	10	7	1	246	293	369	662	122	300	22	5	290	82	-25	+1	+43	+36	+26	8.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	—	198	183	51	9	0	0	8	26	3	5	1	279	320	328	647	49	312	13	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	428	398	100	9	4	3	16	56	4	7	2	251	287	317	604	65	273	13	4	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	412	382	96	14	0	0	19	54	1	14	7	251	289	288	577	37	282	13	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	365	331	86	17	2	1	24	43	4	6	6	260	318	332	650	73	289	12	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	136	120	31	5	1	4	11	23	1	2	1	258	326	417	742	158	276	17	8	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	26	23	8	2	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	348	400	435	835	87	319	4	8	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	33	31	9	3	0	2	2	9	0	1	0	290	333	581	914	290	350	27	6	395	153	+2	+0	+0	+7	+1	1.1
2018	23	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	369	330	74	8	2	6	25	93	6	3	2	224	291	315	606	91	279	25	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	105	98	29	7	0	5	7	18	0	0	0	296	343	520	863	224	324	17	7	377	141	+5	+0	+5	+7	+2	2.0
2019	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	277	251	56	11	1	4	17	55	2	4	0	223	278	323	600	100	252	20	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	45	41	3	0	0	1	0	11	0	0	0	73	73	146	220	73	69	24	0	86	-55	-8	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.6
2021	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	217	198	50	15	0	1	15	44	2	0	0	253	312	343	655	91	318	20	7	295	86	-4	+0	+13	+4	+5	1.8
2022	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	274	250	64	12	1	3	12	56	3	1	0	256	298	348	646	92	332	20	4	286	80	-7	+0	+10	+5	+6	1.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	206	191	48	11	1	1	11	53	1	2	1	251	296	335	631	84	366	26	5	282	77	-6	+0	+5	+4	+4	0.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	158	139	29	3	0	3	13	39	2	3	0	209	286	295	581	86	260	25	8	259	61	-7	+1	+4	+4	+3	0.5
2024	29	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	51	47	5	1	0	0	4	18	0	0	0	106	176	128	304	21	151	35	8	135	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	140	133	30	2	0	9	4	27	0	0	0	226	248	444	692	218	212	19	3	299	89	-2	+0	+6	+4	+3	1.1
2025	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	86	78	18	4	0	2	7	15	0	2	0	231	294	359	653	128	255	17	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	34	29	5	0	0	0	2	9	2	0	0	172	273	172	445		250	26	6	217	33	-3	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.2
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	—	198	183	51	9	0	0	8	26	3	5	1	279	320	328	647	49	321	13	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	—	198	176	58	11	0	0	15	18	3	5	1	330	392	392	784	62	362	9	8	350	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	428	398	100	9	4	3	16	56	4	7	2	251	287	317	604	65	281	13	4	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A RAW	West Virginia Power	—	428	389	102	11	4	3	24	44	4	7	2	262	311	334	645	72	284	10	6	286	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	470	438	110	16	0	0	21	62	1	15	7	251	287	288	575	37	289	13	4	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	470	425	110	19	1	0	33	46	1	15	7	259	313	308	621	49	287	10	7	279	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	365	331	86	17	2	1	24	43	4	6	6	260	318	332	650	73	294	12	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	365	319	81	18	2	1	36	34	4	6	6	254	337	332	669	78	280	9	10	304	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	218	195	53	8	2	6	17	33	1	3	3	272	333	426	759	154	296	15	8	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	218	183	54	7	1	6	29	35	1	3	3	295	394	443	837	148	331	16	13	368	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	402	361	83	11	2	8	27	102	6	4	2	230	294	338	632	108	294	25	7	277	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	402	353	84	12	2	9	35	86	6	4	2	238	317	360	677	122	286	21	9	302	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	382	349	85	18	1	9	24	73	2	4	0	244	296	378	674	135	279	19	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	382	340	89	19	1	10	32	62	2	4	0	262	328	412	740	150	289	16	8	325	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	45	41	3	0	0	1	0	11	0	0	0	73	73	146	220	73	69	24	0	86	-55	-8	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.6
2020	25	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	45	41	3	0	0	1	0	11	0	0	0	73	73	146	220	73	69	24	0	86	-55	-8	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.6
2021	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	217	198	50	15	0	1	15	44	2	0	0	253	312	343	655	91	318	20	7	295	86	-4	+0	+13	+4	+5	1.8
2021	26	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	217	198	50	15	0	1	15	44	2	0	0	253	312	343	655	91	318	20	7	295	86	-4	+0	+13	+4	+5	1.8
2022	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	274	250	64	12	1	3	12	56	3	1	0	256	298	348	646	92	314	20	4	286	80	-7	+0	+10	+5	+6	1.5
2022	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	274	249	67	14	1	3	12	56	3	1	0	269	309	369	679	100	332	20	4	295	80	-7	+0	+10	+5	+6	1.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	206	191	48	11	1	1	11	53	1	2	1	251	296	335	631	84	341	26	5	282	77	-6	+0	+5	+4	+4	0.7
2023	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	206	187	50	12	1	1	11	53	1	2	1	267	305	358	664	91	366	26	5	292	77	-6	+0	+5	+4	+4	0.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	243	214	38	4	0	4	20	66	5	4	0	178	264	252	516	75	231	27	8	229	41	-17	+1	+4	+4	+5	-0.3
2024	29	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	243	212	44	4	0	3	21	60	5	4	0	208	293	269	562	61	270	25	9	260	41	-17	+1	+4	+4	+5	-0.3
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	226	211	48	6	0	11	11	42	0	2	0	227	266	412	678	185	230	19	5	293	85	-4	+0	+6	+4	+5	1.1
2025	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	226	208	51	7	0	12	14	39	0	2	0	245	293	452	745	207	244	17	6	322	85	-4	+0	+6	+4	+5	1.1
2026	31	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	34	29	5	0	0	0	2	9	2	0	0	172	273	172	445		250	26	6	217	33	-3	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.2
2026	31	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	—	34	29	5	0	0	0	2	9	2	0	0	172	273	172	445		250	26	6	217	33	-3	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.2
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	—	198	185	51	9	0	0	8	26	3	5	1	276	320	324	644	49	312	13	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	428	405	100	9	4	3	16	56	4	7	2	247	287	311	598	64	273	13	4	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	470	445	110	16	0	0	21	62	1	15	7	247	287	283	570	36	282	13	4	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	365	334	86	17	2	1	24	43	4	6	6	257	318	329	647	72	289	12	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	218	198	53	8	2	6	17	33	1	3	3	268	333	419	753	152	283	15	8	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	402	366	83	11	2	8	27	102	6	4	2	227	294	333	628	107	285	25	7	277	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	382	353	85	18	1	9	24	73	2	4	0	241	296	374	670	133	272	19	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	45	45	3	0	0	1	0	11	0	0	0	67	73	133	207	67	69	24	0	86	-55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	217	198	50	15	0	1	15	44	2	0	0	253	312	343	655	91	318	20	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	274	257	64	12	1	3	12	56	3	1	0	249	298	339	637	89	332	20	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	206	192	48	11	1	1	11	53	1	2	1	250	296	333	629	83	366	26	5	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	243	216	38	4	0	4	20	66	5	4	0	176	264	250	514	74	233	27	8	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	226	213	48	6	0	11	11	42	0	2	0	225	266	408	674	183	228	19	5	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	34	30	5	0	0	0	2	9	2	0	0	167	273	167	439		250	26	6	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	243	216	38	4	0	4	20	66	5	4	0	176	264	250	514	74	233	27	8	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	226	213	48	6	0	11	11	42	0	2	0	225	266	408	674	183	228	19	5	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	34	30	5	0	0	0	2	9	2	0	0	167	273	167	439		250	26	6	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CWS	100%	200	183	42	6	1	7	13	43	2	2	1	229	286	382	668	153	260	22	6	297	87	-3	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	CWS	100%	124	114	26	4	0	4	8	27	1	1	0	230	287	385	672	156	260	22	6	298	87	-2	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CWS	82%	96	89	19	3	0	3	6	21	1	0	0	221	277	365	642	144	254	22	6	286	80	-2	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	CWS	82%	79	73	16	2	0	3	5	18	1	0	0	222	278	368	646	146	254	23	6	287	80	-2	+0	-3	+1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1291	1177	288	58	2	28	71	284	11	7	1	245	292	369	661	124	297	22	5	290	74	-27	+1	+39	+38	+28	8.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	145	29	1	14	36	143	6	4	1	245	294	368	661	123	297	22	6	290	74	-14	+1	+20	+19	+14	4.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3928	3592	869	143	13	55	222	724	36	54	22	242	293	335	628	93	286	18	6	277	74	-30	+1	+39	+40	+31	8.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	144	24	2	9	37	120	6	9	4	242	294	335	629	93	287	18	6	277	74	-13	+1	+18	+18	+14	3.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 86 PAwOBA .360 → .284 (−76)K% 14.0% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.95%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	16.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.63%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.76%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.63%	÷0.949	×0.930	×0.974	×0.972	19.13%
Doubles /BIP	7.94%	÷1.033	×0.830	×0.974	×0.972	6.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.939	×0.970	×0.974	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷1.125	×0.700	—	×0.972	2.88%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .360 → .284; ISO .187 → .127; BABIP .295 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 51 PAwOBA .175 → .135 (−40)K% 29.4% → 35.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.41%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	35.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.76%	÷1.049	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.79%	÷1.036	×0.930	—	×0.982	12.16%
Doubles /BIP	3.45%	÷0.951	×0.830	—	×0.982	2.95%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.143	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .175 → .135; ISO .023 → .020; BABIP .172 → .151. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAABuffalo Bisons · 277 PAwOBA .299 → .268 (−31)K% 15.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.88%	÷0.968	×1.200	—	—	19.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.30%	÷0.953	×0.690	—	×1.048	6.30%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.71%
Singles /BIP	21.11%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.959	×1.048	19.50%
Doubles /BIP	6.03%	÷0.954	×0.830	×0.959	×1.048	5.27%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷0.909	×0.970	×0.959	×1.048	0.54%
Home runs /BIP	2.51%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.048	2.21%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 94, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .299 → .268; ISO .119 → .109; BABIP .276 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAABuffalo Bisons · 369 PAwOBA .289 → .266 (−24)K% 20.9% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.87%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	25.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.94%	÷0.954	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.79%
HBP% /PA	1.63%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.60%
Singles /BIP	23.27%	÷0.970	×0.930	×1.011	×1.050	23.69%
Doubles /BIP	3.67%	÷0.987	×0.830	×1.011	×1.050	3.28%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.011	×1.050	0.73%
Home runs /BIP	2.86%	÷1.080	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.33%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 94, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .289 → .266; ISO .106 → .089; BABIP .281 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 136 PAwOBA .365 → .328 (−37)K% 14.0% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.97%	÷1.007	×1.220	—	—	16.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.03%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.042	8.09%
HBP% /PA	0.74%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.65%
Singles /BIP	20.83%	÷1.024	×0.970	×1.028	×1.042	21.13%
Doubles /BIP	5.21%	÷1.024	×0.860	×1.028	×1.042	4.68%
Triples /BIP	1.04%	÷0.900	×0.950	×1.028	×1.042	1.18%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷1.165	×0.780	—	×1.042	4.36%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 105, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .365 → .328; ISO .217 → .177; BABIP .283 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKGCL Blue Jays · 26 PAwOBA .429 → .339 (−90)K% 3.8% → 5.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	3.85%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	5.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.54%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.975	6.97%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.975	26.65%
Doubles /BIP	9.52%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	6.69%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.975	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .429 → .339; ISO .091 → .069; BABIP .409 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 365 PAwOBA .298 → .286 (−12)K% 9.3% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.32%	÷0.969	×1.220	—	—	11.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.86%	÷1.079	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.72%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.98%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷0.995	×0.970	×1.039	×1.050	22.41%
Doubles /BIP	6.32%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.039	×1.050	5.93%
Triples /BIP	0.70%	÷1.031	×0.950	×1.039	×1.050	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	0.35%	÷1.292	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.22%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 158, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 106, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .298 → .286; ISO .078 → .074; BABIP .280 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Bradenton Marauders · 412 PAwOBA .263 → .255 (−8)K% 9.5% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.47%	÷1.027	×1.420	—	—	13.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.07%	÷1.051	×0.750	—	×1.042	4.51%
HBP% /PA	0.24%	—	×0.930	—	×1.042	0.24%
Singles /BIP	23.88%	÷0.981	×0.920	×1.043	×1.042	24.33%
Doubles /BIP	4.48%	÷1.117	×0.960	×1.043	×1.042	4.18%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.043	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.974	×0.880	—	×1.042	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 96, 2B 123, 3B 80, K 105, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .263 → .255; ISO .040 → .038; BABIP .280 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Josh Bardlast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,958 PA	2.9	1,958	38	1	252	318	381	+33	+24	10.4	10.4
/162	664	13	0	+11.1	+8.0	3.5	pk7: 11
#2Toby Halllast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,501 PA	3.8	2,501	45	2	263	298	374	+32	+38	9.9	10.0
/162	664	12	1	+8.4	+10.1	2.6	pk7: 10
#3Brayan Peñalast yr '15 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	21	6	262	303	355	+19	+37	7.1	7.1
/162	664	8	2	+7.0	+13.6	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Brook Fordyce'95-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,973 PA	3.0	1,973	41	8	247*	298*	376*	+35	+0	5.0	5.4
/162	664	14	3	+11.7	+0.0	1.7	pk7: 6
#5Jerry McNertney'64-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,605 PA	2.4	1,605	27	3	243*	301*	372*	+27	+0	4.6	4.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.9	pk7: 4
#6Bill Haselman'90-'03 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,747 PA	2.6	1,747	47	9	247*	298*	398*	+25	-0	4.2	4.3
/162	664	18	3	+9.6	-0.2	1.6	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	2.0	1,303	29	8	247	293	373	+23	+38	4.2	4.1
/162	664	15	4	+11.9	+19.3	2.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Reese McGuire (OGILVIE)	32	40	50	40	40	227/284/379	152	260	4	1	22%	6%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Pérez 2024 · MLB	33	38→48	53→55	46→45	46	209/273/378	169	228	23	2	21%	7%	82	+0.0	209/273/380	171	232	21	3	21%	7%	82	+0.0	196/260/370	174	213	22	1	21%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Anthony Recker 2015 · MLB	31	41→48	52→50	42→45	42	216/275/381	165	287	21	5	32%	7%	84	+0.1	204/276/349	145	275	17	5	31%	8%	76	-0.4	193/262/327	134	259	15	2	30%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Elias Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	44→54	50	42→45	48	227/286/381	154	256	18	2	20%	7%	87	+0.4	245/298/378	133	297	14	2	22%	7%	91	+0.6	245/298/371	126	300	14	1	22%	6%	90	+0.4
●Robinson Chirinos 2016 · MLB	32	43→46	52→60	44→50	49	225/298/392	166	260	20	3	22%	8%	95	+0.9	234/328/442	208	282	26	4	26%	10%	118	+2.6	229/342/435	206	294	26	2	29%	11%	120	+1.8
✕Scott Seabol 2007 · MLB	32	44→42	53→55	38→40	45	229/284/401	173	270	20	3	24%	7%	91	+0.7	234/288/421	187	269	23	7	22%	7%	97	+1.1	228/281/424	196	253	25	5	21%	6%	95	+0.9
✕Mike Rivera 2009 · MLB	32	41	51→55	44→45	42	217/263/372	155	244	20	9	21%	5%	77	-0.3	207/277/325	118	270	12	7	26%	8%	72	-0.7	183/258/282	99	248	9	4	29%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Chad Wallach 2024 · MLB	32	38→48	48→50	46→40	43	200/265/336	136	268	17	5	31%	7%	70	-0.9	201/264/329	128	278	15	5	32%	7%	67	-1.1	183/248/298	114	255	14	2	32%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Brian O'Keefe 2024 · MLB	31	39→42	50	41→40	43	205/263/360	156	263	18	4	29%	7%	74	-0.5	196/254/337	141	249	17	5	28%	7%	65	-1.2	174/231/302	128	216	17	3	28%	7%	46	-0.9
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2015 · MLB	31	44→48	51→55	44→50	48	227/295/393	167	269	18	5	23%	8%	93	+0.8	214/281/366	152	263	16	7	25%	8%	82	-0.0	161/216/284	123	202	11	4	26%	6%	38	-0.8
✕John Hicks 2021 · MLB	31	45→52	53→55	43→50	40	236/278/404	168	304	22	5	30%	6%	90	+0.6	217/257/382	165	292	20	13	32%	5%	77	-0.3	197/238/348	151	267	18	16	33%	4%	59	-0.8
✕Lorenzo Quintana 2021 · AAA	32	42	52→50	45	38	224/267/387	163	268	20	9	25%	4%	82	-0.0	228/275/367	139	283	15	5	25%	5%	80	-0.2	222/269/358	136	272	15	2	24%	4%	73	-0.3
✕Johnny Monell 2018 · MLB	32	46→43	46→50	48→45	45	230/280/356	126	272	15	7	22%	6%	79	-0.2	223/277/344	121	309	10	7	29%	7%	74	-0.5	213/263/322	109	308	6	0	31%	6%	62	-0.5
✕John Buck 2012 · MLB	32	48→53	53→60	41→30	46	248/308/421	173	292	22	2	23%	7%	105	+1.7	225/296/374	149	272	19	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6	214/286/349	136	261	18	1	25%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Dustin Garneau 2021 · MLB	33	40→38	49→50	45	46	208/290/361	153	270	17	5	29%	8%	85	+0.2	192/269/357	165	248	20	6	31%	7%	76	-0.4	145/226/306	160	173	21	1	31%	7%	48	-0.8
✕Alex Gonzalez 2005 · MLB	32	45→50	51→55	41→45	46	230/285/395	165	266	18	5	21%	7%	90	+0.6	239/292/376	137	285	14	6	21%	7%	88	+0.4	265/318/403	138	312	14	3	19%	7%	105	+1.1
✕Miguel Ojeda 2006 · MLB	31	41→45	49→45	41→45	50	212/285/353	141	242	18	5	21%	8%	80	-0.1	228/291/343	115	269	11	6	19%	7%	80	-0.2	237/302/363	127	268	13	7	17%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Rick Ankiel 2011 · MLB	32	45→48	53→65	45→50	45	234/294/410	175	290	20	6	27%	7%	97	+1.1	230/284/387	157	304	17	9	29%	7%	88	+0.4	225/275/383	158	298	17	9	30%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Kelly Stinnett 2002 · MLB	32	46	53→50	41→40	44	239/304/408	168	289	22	6	25%	7%	101	+1.4	241/310/391	150	301	17	6	25%	8%	99	+1.2	226/292/361	135	284	15	2	25%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Taylor Motter 2022 · MLB	32	42→49	52→50	47→55	51	220/299/386	166	266	19	4	25%	10%	93	+0.8	208/277/361	153	266	18	8	28%	9%	80	-0.2	185/254/326	141	236	18	8	29%	8%	61	-0.8
✕Tim Beckham 2022 · MLB	32	44→54	54→55	45→50	41	231/279/407	176	294	22	6	29%	6%	91	+0.6	253/306/387	134	334	16	9	28%	6%	96	+1.0	302/351/401	100	411	13	6	28%	5%	109	+0.6

Reese McGuire

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps