Ke'Bryan Hayes — OGILVIE

Ke'Bryan Hayes3B Cincinnati Reds

Age 29 R/R 5'11" / 215 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 5.436 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION135 act + 431 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 9082vR 61

AVG/OBP/SLG.251 / .304 / .357

PA431

HR6

SB8

K%18

BB%6

BABIP298

ISO106

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

906.6%

xwOBA

310.287

POWER40

Barrel%

204.3

Avg EV

5389.3

Bat Spd

4170.4

EYE55

Chase%

7726.4%

SPEED50

Sprint

3726.9

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1018 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

215

803

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

292

247

◀◀L

ISO

095

054

◀◀L

BABIP

295

269

◀L

17.7%

19.2%

◀L

BB%

7.0%

5.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.436 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$4M	+0.2	$1.0M	-$3M
2027	Ext	$9M	+1.8	$13M	+$5M
2028	Ext	$9M	+1.4	$10M	+$3M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$21M		$24M	+$5M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$8.8M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$12.0M / $6.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	GCL Pirates	—	175	153	40	3	1	0	13	34	5	7	1	261	339	294	633	33	331	19	7	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	GCL Pirates	—	175	144	48	4	1	0	22	24	5	7	1	333	439	375	814	42	393	14	13	370	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	West Virginia Power	—	276	254	52	7	1	4	9	67	6	6	5	205	249	287	536	83	257	24	3	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	West Virginia Power	—	276	247	65	12	1	6	16	51	6	6	5	263	323	393	716	130	304	18	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	482	431	105	12	7	2	31	107	4	27	5	244	300	318	618	74	316	22	6	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	482	421	117	16	7	2	41	76	4	27	5	278	348	363	711	86	331	16	9	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA	Altoona Curve	—	508	448	115	30	5	9	46	110	4	12	5	257	331	406	738	150	316	22	9	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA	Altoona Curve	—	508	437	128	31	7	7	57	84	4	12	5	293	380	444	823	151	344	17	11	361	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	480	441	100	30	1	9	29	105	5	12	1	227	282	361	643	134	275	22	6	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	480	427	113	30	2	10	43	90	5	12	1	265	339	415	753	150	311	19	9	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	95	85	32	7	2	5	9	20	1	1	0	376	442	682	1.124	306	450	21	9	467	216	+12	+0	+3	+0	+3	1.9
2020	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	95	85	32	7	2	5	9	20	1	1	0	376	442	682	1.124	306	450	21	9	483	228	+14	+0	+3	+0	+3	2.1
2021	24	MLB	2 teams	—	422	387	98	22	2	7	32	96	1	9	1	253	312	375	687	121	318	23	8	306	92	-4	+1	+10	+2	+12	2.2
2021	24	MLB	2 teams	—	422	386	99	22	2	8	33	94	1	9	1	256	317	386	703	130	318	22	8	314	98	-1	+1	+10	+2	+12	2.5
2022	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	560	505	124	24	3	7	48	122	5	20	5	246	317	347	664	101	310	22	9	299	87	-8	+2	+15	+2	+16	2.7
2022	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	560	505	123	24	3	7	48	122	5	20	5	244	315	345	660	101	307	22	9	300	88	-8	+2	+15	+2	+16	2.8
2023	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	525	494	135	31	7	15	28	104	0	10	6	273	312	455	768	182	317	20	5	331	112	+7	-0	+14	+2	+15	3.8
2023	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	525	494	134	31	7	15	28	104	0	10	6	271	310	453	764	182	315	20	5	334	113	+8	-0	+14	+2	+15	3.9
2024	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	396	365	86	9	0	4	23	75	4	11	2	236	288	293	581	58	283	19	6	260	57	-19	+1	+6	+1	+11	0.1
2024	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	396	365	85	9	0	4	23	75	4	11	2	233	286	290	576	58	279	19	6	263	59	-18	+1	+6	+1	+11	0.2
2025	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	570	527	122	15	3	5	36	111	5	12	3	231	287	300	587	68	284	19	6	264	60	-26	+1	+18	+2	+16	1.2
2025	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	570	527	124	16	3	5	36	111	5	12	3	235	290	306	596	70	289	19	6	272	66	-22	+1	+18	+2	+16	1.6
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	CIN	—	135	126	18	2	1	2	8	22	1	1	0	143	200	222	422	79	157	16	6	194	6	-14	+0	+1	+0	+4	-0.9
YTD	29	MLB	CIN	—	135	126	18	2	1	2	8	22	1	1	0	143	200	222	422	79	157	16	6	196	8	-14	+0	+1	+0	+4	-0.9
ROS	29	MLB	CIN	100%	431	398	100	18	3	6	27	79	3	8	2	251	304	357	661	106	298	18	6	295	84	-8	+1	+7	+2	+12	1.5
ROS	29	MLB	CIN	100%	431	398	101	19	3	6	27	79	3	8	2	254	306	362	668	108	301	18	6	292	82	-9	+1	+7	+2	+12	1.3
FULL	29	MLB	CIN	—	566	524	119	21	4	8	35	101	4	9	2	227	281	328	609	101	266	18	6	269	64	-23	+1	+8	+2	+16	0.5
TOT	29	MLB	CIN	—	566	524	118	20	4	8	35	101	4	9	2	225	279	324	603	99	264	18	6	271	66	-22	+1	+8	+2	+16	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	CIN	100%	554	511	131	24	4	7	34	103	4	9	2	256	308	360	668	104	305	19	6	299	87	-8	+1	+7	+2	+16	1.8
2028	31	MLB	CIN	100%	539	497	126	23	4	6	33	102	4	8	2	254	305	352	657	99	303	19	6	294	83	-10	+1	+6	+2	+15	1.4
2027	30	MLB	CIN	100%	554	511	132	24	4	7	34	103	4	9	2	258	310	362	672	104	308	19	6	296	84	-10	+1	+7	+2	+16	1.7
2028	31	MLB	CIN	100%	539	497	127	23	4	7	33	102	4	8	2	256	307	360	667	105	305	19	6	291	81	-12	+1	+6	+2	+15	1.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4066	3744	951	173	28	62	269	803	27	88	23	254	309	365	674	111	307	20	7	299	87	-58	+8	+88	+15	+115	17.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	152	28	4	10	43	128	4	14	4	254	308	364	672	110	306	20	7	299	87	-9	+1	+14	+2	+18	2.7
Career	—			—	6013	5496	1366	255	43	86	398	1235	51	152	40	249	305	358	663	109	304	21	7	292	82	-122	+14	+88	+21	+170	17.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	148	28	5	9	43	134	6	16	4	249	306	359	665	109	305	21	7	292	82	-13	+2	+9	+2	+18	1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	GCL Pirates	—	175	144	48	4	1	0	22	24	5	7	1	333	439	375	814	42	393	14	13	370	141	+8	+1	—	—	+5	1.4
2016	19	A	West Virginia Power	—	276	247	65	12	1	6	16	51	6	6	5	263	323	393	716	130	304	18	6	314	99	-0	-1	—	—	+8	0.7
2017	20	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	482	421	117	16	7	2	41	76	4	27	5	278	348	363	711	86	331	16	9	313	98	-1	+3	—	—	+14	1.6
2018	21	AA	Altoona Curve	—	508	437	128	31	7	7	57	84	4	12	5	293	380	444	823	151	344	17	11	361	135	+20	+0	—	—	+14	3.5
2019	22	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	480	427	113	30	2	10	43	90	5	12	1	265	339	415	753	150	311	19	9	334	114	+8	+2	—	—	+14	2.4
2020	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	95	85	32	7	2	5	9	20	1	1	0	376	442	682	1.124	306	450	21	9	483	228	+14	+0	+3	+0	+3	2.1
2021	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	396	362	93	20	2	6	31	87	1	9	1	257	317	373	690	116	321	22	8	310	95	-2	+1	+10	+2	+11	2.2
2021	24	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	26	24	6	2	0	2	2	7	0	0	0	250	308	583	891	333	267	27	8	382	151	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	560	505	123	24	3	7	48	122	5	20	5	244	315	345	660	101	307	22	9	300	88	-8	+2	+15	+2	+16	2.8
2023	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	525	494	134	31	7	15	28	104	0	10	6	271	310	453	764	182	315	20	5	334	113	+8	-0	+14	+2	+15	3.9
2024	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	396	365	85	9	0	4	23	75	4	11	2	233	286	290	576	58	279	19	6	263	59	-18	+1	+6	+1	+11	0.2
2025	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	570	527	124	16	3	5	36	111	5	12	3	235	290	306	596	70	289	19	6	272	66	-22	+1	+18	+2	+16	1.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2542	2338	591	107	17	42	175	519	16	63	17	253	309	367	676	114	307	20	7	303	90	-28	+6	+66	+9	+72	12.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Everettlast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,067 PA	10	3,067	40	66	242	294	346	+31	+108	15.8	16.2
	/162	664	9	14	242	294	346	+6.6	+23.4	3.4	pk7: 17
#2Cesar Izturislast yr '13 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,646 PA	12	4,646	17	110	254	293	322	+38	+94	10.9	11.5
	/162	664	2	16	254	293	322	+5.4	+13.5	1.6	pk7: 12
#3Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	8	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
	/162	664	14	30	243	301	366	+2.4	+12.6	2.6	pk7: 11
#4Juan Lagareslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,508 PA	9	2,508	31	45	250	291	360	+8	+49	7.4	7.7
	/162	664	8	12	250	291	360	+2.1	+13.0	1.9	pk7: 8
#5Neifi Perezlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,676 PA	8	3,676	38	33	263	291	364	+3	+44	6.2	7.3
	/162	664	7	6	263	291	364	+0.5	+8.0	1.1	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	4,336	65	93	250	302	357	+15	+103	6.4	7.2
	/162	664	10	14	250	302	357	+2.4	+15.7	1.0	pk7: 8
#6Darwin Barneylast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,729 PA	7	2,729	29	29	246	294	339	+10	+46	6.5	6.5
	/162	664	7	7	246	294	339	+2.5	+11.2	1.6	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ke'Bryan Hayes (OGILVIE)	29	50	40	50	55	225/279/324	99	264	8	9	18%	6%	66	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeff Bianchi 2016 · MLB	29	48→56	39→45	47→50	44	230/271/312	82	281	6	10	20%	5%	59	-1.1	214/260/294	80	288	7	8	27%	6%	50	-1.7	189/229/223	34	267	3	2	29%	5%	17	-1.6
✕Christian Colón 2018 · MLB	29	52→56	37→45	46→55	47	244/298/319	75	292	5	11	18%	6%	73	-0.1	242/297/350	108	274	9	17	15%	6%	82	+0.5	232/291/347	115	255	11	15	14%	6%	76	+0.1
✕Darwin Barney 2015 · MLB	29	48→58	41→40	48→50	50	228/284/329	100	249	8	5	12%	6%	70	-0.3	236/282/335	99	268	9	8	15%	6%	71	-0.3	236/278/327	92	270	9	8	16%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Tyler Saladino 2018 · MLB	29	47	41→45	51→55	46	226/282/321	95	280	8	18	22%	6%	68	-0.5	217/285/357	140	282	17	15	28%	8%	79	+0.3	205/278/359	154	264	20	17	30%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Nate Orf 2019 · MLB	29	46→53	40→45	53→50	47	220/295/315	95	274	7	15	22%	7%	72	-0.2	222/308/332	110	272	11	14	21%	8%	83	+0.6	213/311/314	102	255	11	11	20%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Juan Graterol 2018 · MLB	29	47	38→40	46→30	41	226/258/303	77	262	6	6	16%	3%	52	-1.6	231/264/303	72	256	5	4	12%	3%	54	-1.4	234/270/284	50	260	3	0	11%	3%	49	-0.7
✕Brendan Ryan 2011 · MLB	29	51→61	39→40	51→55	50	242/296/331	89	274	5	15	14%	6%	76	+0.0	223/290/309	86	270	5	14	18%	8%	68	-0.5	211/282/289	78	262	5	13	20%	8%	58	-0.9
✕Wilson Valdez 2006 · MLB	28	45→55	38→40	52→55	46	214/260/298	84	257	5	15	19%	6%	51	-1.7	262/311/340	78	297	5	18	13%	7%	84	+0.6	270/320/330	60	303	3	17	12%	6%	80	+0.3
✕José Peraza 2023 · MLB	29	42→52	45	47→65	45	209/259/328	119	225	13	8	15%	4%	60	-1.0	216/272/328	112	264	11	8	22%	4%	66	-0.6	204/261/281	77	271	6	3	26%	3%	46	-0.5
✕Wilfredo Tovar 2021 · MLB	29	50→56	40	45→60	45	241/278/334	93	280	7	9	17%	5%	68	-0.5	236/293/342	106	272	10	14	16%	7%	78	+0.2	238/301/328	90	270	8	16	15%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Paul Janish 2012 · MLB	29	47→54	38→45	42→45	51	222/284/305	83	247	6	6	13%	7%	65	-0.7	204/264/282	78	246	5	4	18%	7%	50	-1.8	212/272/255	43	251	2	2	15%	6%	43	-1.2
✕Bo Hart 2006 · MLB	29	48→47	42→45	49→45	45	233/280/342	109	275	9	10	19%	5%	72	-0.2	206/254/297	91	255	7	10	21%	5%	50	-1.8	180/228/246	66	228	3	7	22%	5%	22	-1.3
✕Rubén Tejada 2019 · MLB	29	46→56	39→40	46→50	45	219/272/304	85	258	7	6	18%	5%	59	-1.1	229/291/320	91	283	8	7	21%	6%	71	-0.3	232/302/304	72	293	6	3	21%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Shane Robinson 2015 · MLB	30	50→59	39→45	48→55	53	238/305/328	90	273	7	11	15%	8%	79	+0.3	238/292/319	81	277	4	16	15%	7%	70	-0.3	251/300/319	68	290	2	20	13%	6%	71	-0.1
✕Robert Andino 2013 · MLB	29	46→53	41→45	47→50	48	225/284/318	93	273	8	11	21%	7%	67	-0.5	208/256/304	96	271	9	5	26%	6%	52	-1.6	202/241/318	117	258	14	4	27%	5%	45	-1.3
✕Michael Martinez 2012 · MLB	29	46→54	42→45	50	44	222/265/326	104	258	9	14	18%	5%	62	-0.9	224/265/311	87	263	7	10	17%	5%	56	-1.3	247/282/338	91	310	3	9	21%	4%	67	-0.3
✕Augie Ojeda 2004 · MLB	29	44	41→40	50→45	51	209/275/304	96	229	8	8	13%	7%	61	-1.0	231/308/327	96	249	9	7	11%	8%	81	+0.4	249/339/324	75	277	1	4	10%	10%	86	+0.3
✕P.J. Higgins 2022 · MLB	29	45→55	43→45	47→40	46	219/283/329	109	284	10	7	26%	8%	70	-0.3	245/307/374	129	321	12	4	26%	8%	92	+1.2	240/298/360	120	319	11	1	27%	7%	82	+0.4
✕Damian Rolls 2005 · MLB	27	47→52	41→45	47→55	44	230/285/330	100	287	8	13	22%	6%	71	-0.3	215/279/322	107	281	10	12	26%	7%	67	-0.5	226/290/298	73	316	5	20	28%	7%	64	-0.1
✕Luis Rivas 2009 · MLB	29	46→55	43→50	47→55	47	227/277/332	105	255	10	11	16%	6%	68	-0.5	219/274/326	107	245	9	10	14%	7%	66	-0.6	198/255/284	86	220	2	7	11%	7%	43	-0.8