Ke'Bryan Hayes

3B Cincinnati Reds
Age 30 R/R 5'11" / 215 lbs MLB HR +16%BB +6% Svc 6.436 · Ctrl thru 2029
Overview
MLB40-MANExtFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202427MLBPIT396.233/.286/.29041164-0.0
202528MLBCIN570.235/.290/.306512681.2
202629MLBCIN242.141/.194/.2255114-1.8
2027PROJ30MLBCIN279.240/.293/.32645740.4
2028PROJ31MLBCIN261.235/.287/.3143269-0.1
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.6  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2029Service6.436First FA2028Options2
2027Ext$9M2028Ext$9M2029Ext$9M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Avg EV54
Bat Spd41
Speed37
xwOBA29
Barrel%20
Form.226/.269/.296 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .238/.289/.321
CompsAdrián Sanchez (age 30) · Robert Andino (age 29) · Josh Wilson (age 30)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 7574vR 71
AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .293 / .326
PA279
HR4
SB5
K%19
BB%6
BABIP287
ISO82
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: +0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +4.8 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+5FLDPOS: +1.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +6.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+6REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.81.60.30.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$15M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT50
xAVG
360.240
POWER40
Barrel%
204.3
Avg EV
5489.4
Bat Spd
4170.4
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED50
Sprint
3726.9
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%22%▼▼26% over 31 PA (60d) · proj 20%
BB%5%▼0% over 31 PA (60d) · proj 6%
ISO.070▼.000 over 31 AB (60d) · proj .083
BABIP.280▼.087 over 23 BIP (60d) · proj .286
SLASH.226/.269/.296▼▼proj .238/.289/.321
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1018 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
215
803
—
wRC+
83
54
◀◀L
wOBA
292
247
◀◀L
ISO
095
054
◀◀L
BABIP
295
269
◀L
K%
17.7%
19.2%
◀L
BB%
7.0%
5.9%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2020
Service   6.436 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2028
OPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext$9M+0.3$1M-$8M
2028Ext$9M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $18M $0.8M -$16M
Options · projected decision
2030CLUB OPT$8.8M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
2031CLUB OPT$12.0M / $6.0M buyoutDECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201518 ROKGCL Pirates — 175144 48410 22245 71 333439375814 42393 1413 370 80 — — — — — —
201619 AWest Virginia Power — 276247 651216 16516 65 263323393716 130304 186 314 60 — — — — — —
201720 A+Bradenton Marauders — 482421 1171672 41764 275 278348363711 86331 169 313 73 — — — — — —
201821 AAAltoona Curve — 508437 1283177 57844 125 293380444823 151344 1711 361 109 — — — — — —
201922 AAAIndianapolis Indians — 480427 11330210 43905 121 265339415753 150311 199 334 81 — — — — — —
202023 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 9585 32725 9201 10 3764426821.124 306450 219 483 207 +12 +0 +3 +0 +2 1.8
202124 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 396362 932026 31871 91 257317373690 116321 228 310 96 -2 +1 +10 +2 +9 2.0
202124 AAAIndianapolis Indians — 2624 6202 270 00 250308583891 333267 278 382 70 — — — — — —
202225 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 560505 1232437 481225 205 244315345660 101307 229 300 89 -7 +2 +15 +2 +12 2.5
202326 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 525494 13431715 281040 106 271310453764 182315 205 334 113 +8 -0 +14 +2 +11 3.5
202427 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 396365 85904 23754 112 233286290576 58279 196 263 64 -17 +1 +6 +1 +9 -0.0
202528 MLBCincinnati Reds — 570527 1241635 361115 123 235290306596 70289 196 272 68 -22 +1 +18 +2 +12 1.2
202629 MLBCincinnati Reds — 242227 32215 13482 10 141194225419 84155 205 194 14 -25 +0 +1 +1 +5 -1.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 27842565 6231091847 18856718 6417 243299354654 112293 207 294 85 -50 +6 +67 +10 +60 9.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201518 ROK MLEGCL Pirates — 175153 41310 13345 71 268345301646 33325 197 287 80 — — — — — —
201619 A MLEWest Virginia Power — 276253 58915 10686 65 229275332607 103271 254 257 60 — — — — — —
201720 A+ MLEBradenton Marauders — 482430 1091462 321074 275 253311328639 74314 227 276 73 — — — — — —
201821 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 508449 1253067 451034 125 278349419768 140331 209 330 109 — — — — — —
201922 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 480439 1032829 311075 121 235293369662 134282 226 288 81 — — — — — —
202023 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 9587 32725 7201 10 3684216671.088 299450 217 475 207 +12 +0 +3 +0 +2 1.8
202124 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 396362 921926 31871 91 254315367682 113321 228 310 96 -2 +1 +10 +2 +9 2.0
202124 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 2625 5201 190 00 200231400631 200236 354 272 70 — — — — — —
202225 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 560505 1232338 481225 205 244315349664 105307 229 300 89 -7 +2 +15 +2 +12 2.5
202326 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 525495 13430716 271040 106 271308457765 186315 205 335 113 +8 -0 +14 +2 +11 3.5
202427 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 396366 85904 22754 112 232283290573 57279 196 262 64 -17 +1 +6 +1 +9 -0.0
202528 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 570528 1241635 351115 123 235289305594 70289 196 268 68 -22 +1 +18 +2 +12 1.2
202629 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 242227 32215 13482 10 141194225419 84155 205 189 14 -25 +0 +1 +1 +5 -1.8
201518 ROK MLEGCL Pirates — 175153 41310 13345 71 268345301646 33339 197 287 80 — — — — — —
201518 ROK RAWGCL Pirates — 175144 48410 22245 71 333439375814 42393 1413 370 80 — — — — — —
201619 A MLEWest Virginia Power — 276253 58915 10686 65 229275332607 103288 254 257 60 — — — — — —
201619 A RAWWest Virginia Power — 276247 651216 16516 65 263323393716 130304 186 314 60 — — — — — —
201720 A+ MLEBradenton Marauders — 482430 1091462 321074 275 253311328639 74329 227 276 73 — — — — — —
201720 A+ RAWBradenton Marauders — 482421 1171672 41764 275 278348363711 86331 169 313 73 — — — — — —
201821 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 508449 1253067 451034 125 278349419768 140342 209 330 109 — — — — — —
201821 AA RAWAltoona Curve — 508437 1283177 57844 125 293380444823 151344 1711 361 109 — — — — — —
201922 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 480439 1032829 311075 121 235293369662 134287 226 288 81 — — — — — —
201922 AAA RAWIndianapolis Indians — 480427 11330210 43905 121 265339415753 150311 199 334 81 — — — — — —
202023 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 9587 32725 7201 10 3684216671.088 299435 217 475 207 +12 +0 +3 +0 +2 1.8
202023 MLB RAWPittsburgh Pirates — 9585 32725 9201 10 3764426821.124 306450 219 483 207 +12 +0 +3 +0 +2 1.8
202124 MLB MLE2 teams — 422387 982128 32961 91 253312380692 127316 238 308 94 -3 +1 +10 +2 +9 2.0
202124 MLB RAW2 teams — 422386 992228 33941 91 256317386703 130318 228 314 94 -3 +1 +10 +2 +9 2.0
202225 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 560505 1232338 481225 205 244315349664 105305 229 300 89 -7 +2 +15 +2 +12 2.5
202225 MLB RAWPittsburgh Pirates — 560505 1232437 481225 205 244315345660 101307 229 300 89 -7 +2 +15 +2 +12 2.5
202326 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 525495 13430716 271040 106 271308457765 186312 205 335 113 +8 -0 +14 +2 +11 3.5
202326 MLB RAWPittsburgh Pirates — 525494 13431715 281040 106 271310453764 182315 205 334 113 +8 -0 +14 +2 +11 3.5
202427 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 396366 85904 22754 112 232283290573 57278 196 262 64 -17 +1 +6 +1 +9 -0.0
202427 MLB RAWPittsburgh Pirates — 396365 85904 23754 112 233286290576 58279 196 263 64 -17 +1 +6 +1 +9 -0.0
202528 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 570528 1241635 351115 123 235289305594 70288 196 268 68 -22 +1 +18 +2 +12 1.2
202528 MLB RAWCincinnati Reds — 570527 1241635 361115 123 235290306596 70289 196 272 68 -22 +1 +18 +2 +12 1.2
202629 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 242227 32215 13482 10 141194225419 84155 205 189 14 -25 +0 +1 +1 +5 -1.8
202629 MLB RAWCincinnati Reds — 242227 32215 13482 10 141194225419 84155 205 194 14 -25 +0 +1 +1 +5 -1.8
201518 ROK MLEGCL Pirates — 175155 41310 13345 71 265345297642 32325 197 287 80 — — — — — —
201619 A MLEWest Virginia Power — 276258 58915 10686 65 225275326601 101271 254 257 60 — — — — — —
201720 A+ MLEBradenton Marauders — 482443 1091462 321074 275 246311318629 72314 227 276 73 — — — — — —
201821 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 508454 1253067 451034 125 275349414763 139331 209 330 109 — — — — — —
201922 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 480441 1032829 311075 121 234293367660 134282 226 288 81 — — — — — —
202023 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 9587 32725 7201 10 3684216671.088 299450 217 475 207 — — — — — —
202124 MLB MLE2 teams — 422386 982128 32961 91 254312381693 127316 238 308 94 — — — — — —
202225 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 560502 1232338 481225 205 245315351666 106307 229 300 89 — — — — — —
202326 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 525493 13430716 271040 106 272308458767 187315 205 335 113 — — — — — —
202427 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 396367 85904 22754 112 232283289572 57279 196 262 64 — — — — — —
202528 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 570525 1241635 351115 123 236289307595 70289 196 268 68 — — — — — —
202629 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 242225 32215 13482 10 142194227421 84155 205 189 14 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202427 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 396367 85904 22754 112 232283289572 57279 196 262 64 — — — — — —
202528 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 570525 1241635 351115 123 236289307595 70289 196 268 68 — — — — — —
202629 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 242225 32215 13482 10 142194227421 84155 205 189 14 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202730 MLB MLECIN 100% 386357 841025 23753 72 238292321613 83286 196 277 74 -12 +1 +7 +1 +8 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202730 MLB CTXCIN 100% 279257 61714 17543 51 240293326619 86287 196 279 74 -9 +1 +5 +1 +6 0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202831 MLB MLECIN 100% 261241 56713 16522 21 233286310596 77282 206 270 69 -10 +0 +2 +1 +6 -0.1
202831 MLB CTXCIN 100% 261241 55613 16522 21 235287314602 80283 206 272 69 -10 +0 +2 +1 +6 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 30452806 6781151950 20461920 6618 242298350647 108292 207 292 82 -60 +6 +69 +11 +66 9.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650599 14525411 441324 144 242298352651 110292 207 292 82 -13 +1 +15 +2 +14 2.0
Career— MLE — 52714817 11812063681 348110147 13536 245302353656 108300 217 290 82 -69 +7 +74 +12 +72 9.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650594 14525410 431366 174 244302350652 106299 217 290 82 -13 +1 +14 +2 +14 1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 26 PAwOBA .371 → .272 (−99)K% 26.9% → 33.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.92%÷0.961×1.200——33.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.69%÷1.100×0.690—×1.0485.06%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0480.00%
Singles /BIP11.76%÷1.011×0.930—×1.04811.34%
Doubles /BIP11.76%÷0.986×0.830—×1.04810.37%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.914×0.920—×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP11.76%÷1.096×0.700—×1.0487.88%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 83, K 92, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .371 → .272; ISO .333 → .226; BABIP .267 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 480 PAwOBA .328 → .288 (−40)K% 18.8% → 22.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.75%÷1.013×1.200——22.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.96%÷1.010×0.690—×1.0506.42%
HBP% /PA1.04%—×0.940—×1.0501.03%
Singles /BIP21.07%÷1.026×0.930×0.950×1.05019.06%
Doubles /BIP8.90%÷0.901×0.830×0.950×1.0508.18%
Triples /BIP0.59%÷1.150×0.970×0.950×1.0500.50%
Home runs /BIP2.97%÷0.953×0.840—×1.0502.75%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 103, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .328 → .288; ISO .150 → .138; BABIP .311 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAltoona Curve · 508 PAwOBA .356 → .330 (−26)K% 16.5% → 20.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.54%÷0.993×1.220——20.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.22%÷0.929×0.700—×1.0508.88%
HBP% /PA0.79%—×0.850—×1.0500.70%
Singles /BIP23.51%÷1.035×0.970×0.990×1.05022.91%
Doubles /BIP8.78%÷0.936×0.860×0.990×1.0508.38%
Triples /BIP1.98%÷1.150×0.950×0.990×1.0501.70%
Home runs /BIP1.98%÷0.857×0.780—×1.0501.90%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 99, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .356 → .330; ISO .151 → .142; BABIP .344 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Bradenton Marauders · 482 PAwOBA .308 → .276 (−31)K% 15.8% → 22.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.77%÷1.003×1.420——22.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.51%÷0.996×0.750—×1.0426.68%
HBP% /PA0.83%—×0.930—×1.0420.80%
Singles /BIP26.67%÷1.002×0.920×1.006×1.04225.67%
Doubles /BIP4.64%÷1.154×0.960×1.006×1.0424.04%
Triples /BIP2.03%÷0.923×0.810×1.006×1.0421.87%
Home runs /BIP0.58%÷0.976×0.880—×1.0420.54%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 131, 3B 85, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .308 → .276; ISO .086 → .076; BABIP .331 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AWest Virginia Power · 276 PAwOBA .309 → .257 (−52)K% 18.5% → 24.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.48%÷1.012×1.340——24.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.43%÷1.037×0.660—×1.0453.62%
HBP% /PA2.17%—×0.770—×1.0451.75%
Singles /BIP23.47%÷1.028×0.920×1.005×1.04522.06%
Doubles /BIP6.12%÷1.190×0.820×1.005×1.0454.43%
Triples /BIP0.51%÷1.056×0.940×1.005×1.0450.48%
Home runs /BIP3.06%÷1.069×0.820—×1.0452.45%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 106, 2B 138, 3B 111, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .309 → .257; ISO .130 → .100; BABIP .304 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKGCL Pirates · 175 PAwOBA .363 → .287 (−77)K% 13.7% → 19.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.71%÷1.000×1.440——19.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.00%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0227.61%
HBP% /PA2.86%—×0.720—×1.0222.10%
Singles /BIP35.83%÷1.000×0.820×0.996×1.02229.93%
Doubles /BIP3.33%÷1.000×0.720×0.996×1.0222.44%
Triples /BIP0.83%÷1.000×0.720×0.996×1.0220.61%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .363 → .287; ISO .042 → .031; BABIP .393 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).