Keyner Benitez
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
+0.2
WAR
Age 20
LHP
6'1" / 165 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.8 · 2031
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%10.0%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2031
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 11 | 11 | 46 | 188 | 44 | 26 | 1 | 15.9% | 17.3% | 0.8% | 3.74 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 16 | 13 | 70 | 282 | 77 | 28 | 5 | 18.0% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 2.71 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 15 | 13 | 54 | 239 | 51 | 31 | 1 | 15.3% | 15.5% | 0.5% | 3.17 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 2 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIA | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 48 | 25 | 6 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 20 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 61 | 256 | 58 | 28 | 7 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.09 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 52 | 25 | 7 | 21.7% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 58 | 24 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 62 | 24 | 7 | 23.5% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.09 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 65 | 23 | 7 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.00 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 67 | 23 | 7 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 3.94 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 67 | 23 | 7 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 3.95 | 3.92 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 67 | 23 | 7 | 24.7% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.92 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 65 | 23 | 7 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.95 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 64 | 22 | 7 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 4.00 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 61 | 22 | 7 | 24.3% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 59 | 22 | 7 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 56 | 21 | 7 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.22 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 44 | 38 | 176 | 736 | 127 | 109 | 13 | 17.3% | 14.8% | 1.8% | 3.11 | 4.51 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 43 | 200 | 835 | 144 | 124 | 15 | 17.3% | 14.8% | 1.8% | 3.11 | 4.51 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keyner Benitez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.25 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 179 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.21 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.98 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.77 | 4.21 | 128 | 94 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 89 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 89 |
| Yereny Teus L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.59 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.59 | 18.9% | 0.7% | 34 | +1.00 | 3.49 | 131 | 87 |
| Evan Shawver L 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.28 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.49 | 4.09 | 219 | 87 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 87 |
| Oddanier Mosqueda L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.74 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .308 | 4.12 | 25.7% | 14.1% | 106 | +0.38 | 3.05 | 433 | 86 |
| Chase Watkins L 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .346 | 4.33 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.59 | 3.29 | 213 | 85 |
| Felix Carvallo L 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.57 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.52 | 17.7% | 4.7% | 67 | -0.05 | 4.52 | 132 | 85 |
| Will Mabrey L 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.26 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 2.1% | .256 | 4.29 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 46 | +0.03 | 4.26 | 112 | 84 |
| Kyle Twomey L 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.07 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.95 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 68 | -0.12 | 3.95 | 141 | 83 |
| Anfernee Benitez L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.76 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .383 | 3.90 | 17.8% | 1.5% | 71 | -0.86 | 3.82 | 137 | 83 |
| Raúl Alcantara L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.48 | 19.6% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 4.51 | 19.0% | 4.2% | 229 | +0.03 | 3.82 | 396 | 83 |
| Michael Kennedy L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.25 | 17.5% | 10.7% | 2.3% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 178 | 83 |
| Shane McCain L 2029 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 83 |
| Sam Hentges L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.53 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 2.8% | .362 | 4.12 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 260 | -0.41 | 2.31 | 576 | 83 |
| Dante Biasi L 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | .251 | 5.64 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +0.73 | 4.91 | 224 | 83 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.27 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.33 | 18.5% | 2.8% | 214 | +1.06 | 4.27 | 239 | 82 |
| Nate Peterson L 2029 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.45 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .284 | 4.96 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 161 | +0.51 | 4.32 | 236 | 82 |
| Abdallah Aris L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 109 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.7 | $4M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.7 | $4M | +$0.2M |
| Totals | $10M | $22M | +$11M | ||