Keyner Benitez

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 21 LHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#103ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	MIX2 levels	16	13	70	2.71	3.03	27.3%	9.9%	—	K 18.0% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.90
2025	19	MIX2 levels	15	13	54	3.17	3.17	21.3%	13.0%	—	K 15.3% · BB 15.5% · FIP 4.06
2026	20	AMIA	5	4	19	2.79	3.36	31.2%	11.7%	—	K 23.1% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.75
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIA	—	—	0	5.10	5.10	21.1%	14.3%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIA	9	9	48	4.73	4.59	23.1%	12.4%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIA	16	16	86	4.46	4.31	24.3%	11.2%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$7M2033Arb-3$9M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 8.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsJohn Beller (age 22) · Rylan Kaufman (age 22) · Dominic Perachi (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%21.1%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.7	$10M	+$8M
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+1.8	$10M	+$6M
2033	Arb-3	$9M	+1.7	$9M	+$4M
Totals		$22M		$46M	+$32M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	46	188	44	26	1	100%	4.2	15.9%	17.3%	-1.4%	0.8%	3.74	4.38	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	11	46	188	44	26	1	100%	4.2	23.4%	13.8%	9.6%	0.5%	3.74	3.17	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	70	282	77	28	5	81%	4.4	18.0%	12.9%	5.1%	3.1%	2.71	4.90	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	70	282	77	28	5	81%	4.4	18.0%	12.9%	5.1%	3.1%	2.71	4.90	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	13	70	282	77	28	5	81%	4.4	27.3%	9.9%	17.4%	1.8%	2.71	3.03	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	54	239	51	31	1	87%	3.6	15.3%	15.5%	-0.2%	0.5%	3.17	4.06	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	54	239	51	31	1	87%	3.6	15.3%	15.5%	-0.2%	0.5%	3.17	4.06	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	54	239	51	31	1	87%	3.6	21.3%	13.0%	8.4%	0.4%	3.17	3.17	—
2026	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	5	4	19	77	24	9	2	80%	3.9	23.1%	13.8%	9.3%	3.4%	2.79	4.75	—
2026	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	5	4	19	77	24	9	2	80%	3.9	23.1%	13.8%	9.3%	3.4%	2.79	4.75	—
2026	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	5	4	19	77	24	9	2	80%	3.9	31.2%	11.7%	19.5%	2.6%	2.79	3.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	14.3%	6.8%	2.9%	5.10	5.10	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	99	416	96	52	12	100%	5.2	23.1%	12.4%	10.7%	2.8%	4.81	4.67	+0.8
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	118	499	121	56	14	100%	5.4	24.3%	11.2%	13.1%	2.8%	4.54	4.39	+1.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	125	529	132	55	15	100%	5.7	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	2.8%	4.34	4.22	+1.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	124	524	133	52	15	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.8%	4.21	4.12	+1.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	124	525	135	52	15	100%	5.9	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	2.8%	4.14	4.10	+1.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	122	513	132	51	15	100%	6.1	25.7%	10.0%	15.6%	2.8%	4.14	4.14	+1.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	116	490	125	50	14	100%	6.1	25.6%	10.2%	15.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.22	+1.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	108	457	116	48	14	100%	6.0	25.3%	10.4%	14.9%	3.1%	4.29	4.35	+1.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	98	415	104	44	14	100%	6.1	25.0%	10.7%	14.2%	3.3%	4.43	4.53	+1.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	88	372	91	41	13	100%	5.9	24.6%	11.1%	13.5%	3.5%	4.61	4.73	+0.7
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	78	329	79	38	12	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.5%	12.7%	3.8%	4.82	4.96	+0.4
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	69	290	68	34	12	100%	6.2	23.6%	11.9%	11.7%	4.0%	5.05	5.21	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	48	203	47	25	5	100%	5.3	23.1%	12.4%	10.7%	2.7%	4.73	4.59	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	86	363	88	41	10	100%	5.4	24.3%	11.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.46	4.31	+1.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	104	439	110	46	12	100%	5.5	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	2.6%	4.26	4.14	+1.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	110	464	118	46	12	100%	5.8	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.6%	4.13	4.04	+1.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	114	481	124	48	13	100%	6.0	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	2.6%	4.06	4.02	+1.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	113	477	122	48	13	100%	5.9	25.7%	10.0%	15.6%	2.7%	4.06	4.06	+1.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	109	460	118	47	13	100%	6.1	25.6%	10.2%	15.4%	2.8%	4.11	4.14	+1.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	103	435	110	45	13	100%	6.1	25.3%	10.4%	14.9%	2.9%	4.21	4.27	+1.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	93	393	98	42	12	100%	5.8	25.0%	10.7%	14.2%	3.1%	4.34	4.44	+0.9
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	84	355	87	39	12	100%	6.0	24.6%	11.1%	13.5%	3.3%	4.51	4.63	+0.7
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	74	312	75	36	11	100%	6.2	24.1%	11.5%	12.7%	3.6%	4.72	4.86	+0.4
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	65	274	65	33	11	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.9%	11.7%	3.8%	4.94	5.10	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		188	188	1102	4652	1161	495	136	100%	5.9	25.0%	10.6%	14.3%	2.9%	4.32	3.94	+19.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	211	90	25	100%	5.8	25.0%	10.6%	14.3%	2.9%	4.32	3.94	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		47	41	189	786	135	117	14	87%	4.0	17.2%	14.8%	2.4%	1.8%	3.10	4.50	+14.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	43	200	833	143	124	15	87%	4.0	17.2%	14.8%	2.4%	1.8%	3.10	4.50	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 19 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.75 (+1.38)K% 31.2% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.17%	—	×0.740	23.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.69%	—	×1.180	13.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.38%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 37 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.40 (+0.83)K% 19.3% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.30%	—	×0.740	14.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.04%	—	×1.180	16.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.58%	÷1.035	×1.300	0.73%

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Marlins · 17 IPFIP 2.17 → 3.21 (+1.04)K% 26.5% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.47%	—	×0.680	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×1.250	12.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.910	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.17 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 58 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.90 (+1.32)K% 24.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.37%	—	×0.740	18.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.92%	—	×1.180	12.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.10%	÷0.888	×1.300	3.07%

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Marlins · 12 IPFIP 0.03 → 1.34 (+1.31)K% 43.2% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.18%	—	×0.680	29.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.250	5.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.898	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.03 → 1.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Miami · 46 IPFIP 3.17 → 4.38 (+1.21)K% 23.4% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.40%	—	×0.680	15.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.83%	—	×1.250	17.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.53%	÷0.948	×1.400	0.79%

Result: FIP 3.17 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keyner Benitez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.41	24.2%	12.9%	342	-0.69	—	—	—
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	91
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	89
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	86
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	86
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	86
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	86
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	84
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	84
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	84
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	83
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	83
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	82
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	82
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	81
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.79	281	81
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	81
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.51	1,448	81
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	81
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	80
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.8	104	24.7%	10.9%	1.18	4.46
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45