Keyner Benitez
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
Age 20
LHP
6'1" / 165 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117126vR 135
ERA5.15
FIP5.15
K%19.0%
BB%13.9%
K-BB%5.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 11 | 11 | 46 | 188 | 44 | 26 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 15.9% | 17.3% | -1.4% | 0.8% | 3.74 | 4.40 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 11 | 11 | 46 | 188 | 44 | 26 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 23.4% | 13.8% | 9.6% | 0.5% | 3.74 | 3.17 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 13 | 70 | 282 | 77 | 28 | 5 | 81% | 4.4 | 18.0% | 12.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.71 | 5.14 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 13 | 70 | 282 | 77 | 28 | 5 | 81% | 4.4 | 27.3% | 9.9% | 17.4% | 1.8% | 2.71 | 3.03 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 13 | 54 | 239 | 51 | 31 | 1 | 87% | 3.6 | 15.3% | 15.5% | -0.2% | 0.5% | 3.17 | 4.05 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 13 | 54 | 239 | 51 | 31 | 1 | 87% | 3.6 | 21.3% | 13.0% | 8.4% | 0.4% | 3.17 | 3.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 5 | 4 | 19 | 77 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 80% | 3.9 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 2.79 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 5.15 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.0% | 13.9% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 5.11 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 84 | 351 | 76 | 47 | 10 | — | — | 21.7% | 13.4% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 5.06 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 122 | 517 | 109 | 64 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.1% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.76 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 165 | 695 | 161 | 77 | 19 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.2% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.40 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 33 | 33 | 178 | 749 | 183 | 77 | 20 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.5% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.17 | +2.6 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 180 | 760 | 192 | 74 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.3% | 9.7% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 4.02 | +2.9 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 31 | 31 | 180 | 760 | 196 | 72 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.8% | 9.5% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 3.94 | +3.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 30 | 30 | 180 | 760 | 198 | 72 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 9.4% | 16.6% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 3.91 | +3.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 30 | 30 | 177 | 749 | 195 | 71 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 16.6% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.95 | +3.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 29 | 29 | 172 | 726 | 188 | 70 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 9.7% | 16.3% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.04 | +2.7 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 27 | 27 | 164 | 694 | 178 | 69 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.7% | 9.9% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.17 | +2.4 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 154 | 652 | 165 | 66 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.4% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.34 | +1.9 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 152 | 64 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.55 | +1.4 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 138 | 61 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 4.77 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 60 | 253 | 53 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.1% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 120 | 507 | 117 | 56 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 4.36 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 150 | 633 | 155 | 65 | 16 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.5% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 4.13 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 29 | 29 | 160 | 676 | 171 | 66 | 17 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.3% | 9.7% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 3.98 | +2.7 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 180 | 66 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.8% | 9.5% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.90 | +2.9 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 185 | 67 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 9.4% | 16.6% | 2.6% | 3.92 | 3.87 | +3.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 185 | 67 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 16.6% | 2.6% | 3.91 | 3.91 | +2.9 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 179 | 66 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 9.7% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 4.00 | +2.7 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 169 | 65 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.7% | 9.9% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.13 | +2.3 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 157 | 63 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.4% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.29 | +1.9 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 144 | 61 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 131 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.72 | +1.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 298 | 298 | 1721 | 7267 | 1828 | 732 | 202 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 3.78 | +32.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 212 | 85 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 3.78 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 47 | 41 | 189 | 786 | 135 | 117 | 15 | 87% | 4.0 | 17.2% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.10 | 4.59 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 43 | 200 | 833 | 143 | 124 | 16 | 87% | 4.0 | 17.2% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.10 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keyner Benitez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.15 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.41 | 23.1% | 12.1% | 465 | -0.74 | — | — | — |
| John Beller L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.22 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.37 | 4.00 | 170 | 89 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.35 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.69 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.34 | 4.01 | 212 | 88 |
| Dominic Perachi L 2028 · 5.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.25 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.93 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 182 | -1.32 | 3.47 | 273 | 87 |
| Andrew Sears L 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.18 | 19.6% | 15.4% | 1.4% | .248 | 4.30 | 20.7% | 11.8% | 142 | +0.12 | 3.45 | 232 | 86 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.67 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.89 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.78 | 2.81 | 146 | 84 |
| Mason Molina L 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.28 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.56 | 23.3% | 13.3% | 69 | -0.72 | 3.56 | 165 | 82 |
| Cam Caminiti L 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.10 | 17.6% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 138 | 82 |
| Shane Drohan L 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.23 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 1.4% | .313 | 5.13 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 264 | +0.90 | 2.91 | 484 | 82 |
| Johnny King L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.22 | 23.7% | 15.4% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 129 | 81 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2029 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 4.65 | 17.8% | 1.7% | 139 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 234 | 81 |
| Keegan Akin L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.30 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.04 | 2.54 | 743 | 80 |
| Dylan Carmouche L 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.37 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .332 | 4.42 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 70 | +0.05 | 4.37 | 192 | 80 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.00 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 1.6% | .275 | 3.80 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 141 | -0.20 | 3.73 | 245 | 80 |
| Matt Imhof L 2027 · 4.99 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.99 | 13.6% | 13.5% | 2.4% | .282 | 5.73 | 15.9% | -5.4% | 53 | +0.74 | 4.99 | 131 | 80 |
| Caden Grice L 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.23 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .282 | 5.28 | 17.3% | 1.8% | 55 | +1.05 | 4.23 | 105 | 80 |
| Justin Sinibaldi L 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.79 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.0% | .286 | 6.01 | 14.0% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.22 | 4.79 | 163 | 80 |
| Evan Shawver L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .289 | 4.64 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 4.01 | 258 | 80 |
| Brett Adcock L 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .294 | 4.56 | 17.2% | 2.8% | 193 | +0.51 | 4.01 | 301 | 79 |
| Max Fried L 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.91 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .301 | 3.79 | 22.6% | 13.4% | 378 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 1,397 | 79 |
| Kyle Carr L 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.22 | 16.2% | 14.0% | 1.3% | .310 | 4.14 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 200 | -0.08 | 4.01 | 304 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 13 | 156 | 24.7% | 10.3% | 1.10 | 4.28 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |