Keyner Benitez — OGILVIE

Keyner Benitez P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 20 LHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%18.3%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%3.4%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5060

CTRL3545

CMD3050

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.4	$8M	+$5M
2031	Arb-2	$10M	+1.7	$9M	+$3M
2032	Arb-3	$15M	+1.7	$9M	+$0.7M
Totals		$32M		$34M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	46	188	44	26	1	100%	4.2	15.9%	17.3%	-1.4%	0.8%	3.74	4.38	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	46	188	44	26	1	100%	4.2	15.9%	17.3%	-1.4%	0.8%	3.74	4.38	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	11	46	188	44	26	1	100%	4.2	23.4%	13.8%	9.6%	0.5%	3.74	3.17	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	70	282	77	28	5	81%	4.4	18.0%	12.9%	5.1%	3.1%	2.71	4.90	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	70	282	77	28	5	81%	4.4	18.0%	12.9%	5.1%	3.1%	2.71	4.90	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	13	70	282	77	28	5	81%	4.4	27.3%	9.9%	17.4%	1.8%	2.71	3.03	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	54	239	51	31	1	87%	3.6	15.3%	15.5%	-0.2%	0.5%	3.17	4.06	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	54	239	51	31	1	87%	3.6	15.3%	15.5%	-0.2%	0.5%	3.17	4.06	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	54	239	51	31	1	87%	3.6	21.3%	13.0%	8.4%	0.4%	3.17	3.17	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	5	4	19	77	24	9	2	80%	3.9	23.1%	13.8%	9.3%	3.4%	2.79	4.75	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	5	4	19	77	24	9	2	80%	3.9	23.1%	13.8%	9.3%	3.4%	2.79	4.75	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	MIA	5	4	19	77	24	9	2	80%	3.9	31.2%	11.7%	19.5%	2.6%	2.79	3.37	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	7	30	5	4	1	100%	7.1	18.3%	14.9%	3.4%	2.8%	5.33	5.33	-0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	26	107	29	13	3	—	—	27.6%	12.6%	15.0%	2.6%	3.47	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	25	25	122	517	105	67	14	100%	4.9	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	2.7%	5.03	4.91	-0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	32	32	165	695	154	80	19	100%	5.1	22.2%	11.6%	10.7%	2.7%	4.71	4.54	+0.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	33	33	175	739	173	78	20	100%	5.3	23.5%	10.6%	12.9%	2.6%	4.45	4.30	+1.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	32	32	179	757	184	76	20	100%	5.6	24.2%	10.0%	14.2%	2.6%	4.26	4.14	+1.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	180	760	188	74	20	100%	5.8	24.7%	9.7%	15.0%	2.6%	4.14	4.05	+1.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	180	760	189	73	20	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.6%	15.3%	2.6%	4.08	4.03	+1.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	177	749	186	73	20	100%	5.9	24.9%	9.7%	15.2%	2.7%	4.07	4.07	+1.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	172	726	180	72	20	100%	5.9	24.8%	9.9%	14.9%	2.8%	4.12	4.16	+1.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	164	694	170	70	20	100%	6.1	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	2.9%	4.22	4.29	+1.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	154	652	158	68	20	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.1%	4.37	4.46	+0.8
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	144	608	145	65	20	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.7%	13.0%	3.3%	4.55	4.67	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	133	562	131	63	20	100%	6.1	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	3.6%	4.75	4.89	+0.0
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	122	516	118	60	20	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.9%	4.98	5.14	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	60	253	51	33	7	100%	5.0	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	2.6%	4.96	4.84	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	120	507	113	59	13	100%	5.0	22.2%	11.6%	10.7%	2.5%	4.64	4.47	+0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	148	625	147	66	16	100%	5.3	23.5%	10.6%	12.9%	2.5%	4.38	4.23	+1.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	29	29	160	676	164	68	17	100%	5.5	24.2%	10.0%	14.2%	2.5%	4.19	4.07	+1.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	165	697	172	67	17	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.7%	15.0%	2.5%	4.07	3.98	+1.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	168	709	177	68	18	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.6%	15.3%	2.5%	4.01	3.96	+1.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	168	709	177	69	18	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.7%	15.2%	2.5%	4.00	4.00	+1.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	163	688	170	68	18	100%	6.0	24.8%	9.9%	14.9%	2.6%	4.04	4.08	+1.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	156	659	162	66	18	100%	6.0	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	2.8%	4.14	4.21	+1.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	147	621	150	64	18	100%	6.1	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.0%	4.28	4.37	+0.8
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	23	23	137	578	138	62	18	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.7%	13.0%	3.2%	4.46	4.58	+0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	127	536	125	60	18	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	3.4%	4.65	4.79	+0.0
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	116	490	112	57	18	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.7%	4.87	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		317	317	1835	7746	1856	807	214	100%	5.8	24.0%	10.4%	13.5%	2.8%	4.30	3.91	+21.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	202	88	23	100%	5.8	24.0%	10.4%	13.5%	2.8%	4.30	3.91	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		47	41	189	786	135	117	14	87%	4.0	17.2%	14.8%	2.4%	1.8%	3.10	4.50	+12.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	43	200	833	143	124	15	87%	4.0	17.2%	14.8%	2.4%	1.8%	3.10	4.50	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keyner Benitez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	18.3%	14.9%	2.8%	—	4.55	22.2%	10.6%	462	-0.78	—	—	—
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	88
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	88
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	87
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	85
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	83
Matt Imhof L 2015 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP	5.13	13.6%	13.5%	2.7%	.282	5.68	15.9%	-5.4%	53	+0.55	5.13	131	82
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	81
Frankeli Arias L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	20	SP-	4.27	15.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.318	5.53	16.1%	3.0%	196	+1.26	3.87	298	80
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	80
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	80
Francisco Morao L 2023 · 4.30 FIP	17	SP	4.30	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.303	4.59	18.4%	1.5%	115	+0.29	4.00	154	79
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	78
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	78
Dennis Herrera L 2019 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	14.8%	16.0%	2.0%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	124	78
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.56	1,435	78
Brendon Little L 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SP	4.70	14.7%	11.2%	2.6%	.313	3.83	21.0%	8.9%	90	-0.87	2.63	503	78
Doug Nikhazy L 2022 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	21.8%	19.9%	2.2%	.270	4.78	20.6%	8.1%	312	-0.21	4.16	461	78
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	77
Daniel McGrath L 2015 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP	4.68	15.2%	11.9%	2.5%	.269	4.75	14.8%	2.8%	277	+0.07	3.52	474	77
Blake Taylor L 2017 · 4.93 FIP	21	SP	4.93	13.7%	14.8%	2.0%	.293	3.89	18.8%	5.9%	174	-1.04	3.18	395	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.8	154	23.6%	10.7%	1.12	4.44
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17