Luis Peña
SS Wisconsin Timber Rattlers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL Brewers 1 | 184 | .393/.459/.583 | 1 | 39 | 73 | — | .234/.301/.323 |
| 2025 | 18 | A+/A2 orgs | 418 | .270/.339/.422 | 9 | 44 | 80 | — | .244/.300/.357 |
| 2026 | 19 | AA/A+MIL | 280 | .291/.375/.402 | 3 | 33 | 90 | — | .267/.336/.371 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBMIL | 9 | .232/.294/.330 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ45% MLB | 21 | MLBMIL | 129 | .238/.301/.353 | 2 | 6 | 87 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ62% MLB | 22 | MLBMIL | 235 | .244/.308/.378 | 6 | 9 | 95 | 0.7 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 184 | 163 | 64 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 39 | 4 | 393 | 459 | 583 | 1.042 | 190 | 426 | 8 | 8 | 454 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 109 | 101 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 168 | 222 | 297 | 519 | 129 | 194 | 25 | 6 | 233 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 309 | 273 | 84 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 28 | 41 | 4 | 41 | 7 | 308 | 380 | 469 | 849 | 161 | 339 | 13 | 9 | 373 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 61 | 56 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 268 | 328 | 339 | 667 | 71 | 318 | 18 | 7 | 306 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 219 | 188 | 56 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 45 | 4 | 27 | 6 | 298 | 389 | 420 | 809 | 122 | 375 | 21 | 11 | 361 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 184 | 167 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 5 | 39 | 4 | 234 | 301 | 323 | 624 | 90 | 256 | 10 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 109 | 102 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 127 | 176 | 216 | 392 | 88 | 171 | 33 | 5 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 309 | 280 | 80 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 54 | 4 | 41 | 7 | 286 | 344 | 407 | 751 | 121 | 330 | 17 | 7 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 61 | 57 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 246 | 295 | 316 | 611 | 70 | 293 | 21 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 219 | 194 | 53 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 57 | 4 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 347 | 387 | 734 | 113 | 356 | 26 | 8 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 184 | 167 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 5 | 39 | 4 | 234 | 301 | 323 | 624 | 90 | 262 | 10 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 184 | 163 | 64 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 39 | 4 | 393 | 459 | 583 | 1.042 | 190 | 426 | 8 | 8 | 454 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 418 | 383 | 94 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 90 | 5 | 44 | 7 | 245 | 300 | 358 | 658 | 112 | 301 | 22 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 418 | 374 | 101 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 34 | 68 | 5 | 44 | 7 | 270 | 339 | 422 | 761 | 152 | 305 | 16 | 8 | 336 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 251 | 66 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 71 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 263 | 332 | 355 | 687 | 92 | 354 | 25 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 280 | 244 | 71 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 56 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 291 | 375 | 402 | 777 | 111 | 362 | 20 | 10 | 349 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 184 | 166 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 5 | 39 | 4 | 235 | 301 | 325 | 626 | 90 | 256 | 10 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 418 | 385 | 94 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 90 | 5 | 44 | 7 | 244 | 300 | 356 | 656 | 112 | 289 | 22 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 252 | 66 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 71 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 262 | 332 | 353 | 685 | 91 | 342 | 25 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 184 | 166 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 5 | 39 | 4 | 235 | 301 | 325 | 626 | 90 | 256 | 10 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 418 | 385 | 94 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 90 | 5 | 44 | 7 | 244 | 300 | 356 | 656 | 112 | 289 | 22 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 252 | 66 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 71 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 262 | 332 | 353 | 685 | 91 | 342 | 25 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | MIL | 4% | 390 | 356 | 84 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 83 | 5 | 19 | 3 | 235 | 296 | 334 | 630 | 99 | 291 | 21 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -10 | +3 | -2 | +4 | +8 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB CTX | MIL | 4% | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 294 | 330 | 623 | 98 | 286 | 22 | 11 | 281 | 78 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | MIL | 45% | 286 | 260 | 63 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 60 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 240 | 303 | 356 | 660 | 116 | 292 | 21 | 7 | 296 | 87 | -5 | +2 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIL | 62% | 382 | 347 | 86 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 78 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 246 | 311 | 380 | 690 | 133 | 293 | 20 | 7 | 308 | 95 | -2 | +2 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIL | 68% | 440 | 399 | 101 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 32 | 89 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 251 | 316 | 397 | 713 | 146 | 294 | 20 | 7 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +2 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 1.6 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIL | 70% | 474 | 430 | 109 | 17 | 4 | 14 | 35 | 96 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 254 | 319 | 408 | 727 | 154 | 295 | 20 | 7 | 323 | 105 | +3 | +2 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 2.0 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIL | 70% | 493 | 447 | 113 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 37 | 100 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 255 | 321 | 414 | 735 | 159 | 295 | 20 | 8 | 326 | 107 | +4 | +2 | -1 | +5 | +11 | 2.2 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIL | 71% | 501 | 452 | 115 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 38 | 101 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 255 | 322 | 417 | 739 | 162 | 295 | 20 | 8 | 327 | 108 | +4 | +2 | -1 | +5 | +11 | 2.2 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIL | 69% | 501 | 452 | 114 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 38 | 102 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 254 | 321 | 414 | 735 | 160 | 294 | 20 | 8 | 326 | 107 | +4 | +2 | -1 | +5 | +11 | 2.2 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIL | 69% | 495 | 448 | 113 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 38 | 102 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 253 | 319 | 410 | 729 | 157 | 294 | 21 | 8 | 323 | 105 | +3 | +2 | -1 | +5 | +11 | 2.0 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIL | 67% | 483 | 438 | 109 | 17 | 4 | 14 | 36 | 101 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 250 | 316 | 404 | 720 | 154 | 293 | 21 | 7 | 320 | 103 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIL | 66% | 470 | 427 | 106 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 100 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 248 | 313 | 397 | 710 | 149 | 291 | 21 | 7 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +1 | -3 | +5 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | MIL | 65% | 454 | 413 | 100 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 98 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 244 | 308 | 387 | 696 | 144 | 289 | 22 | 7 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +1 | -3 | +5 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB MLE | MIL | 65% | 432 | 393 | 93 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 95 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 239 | 302 | 375 | 678 | 137 | 285 | 22 | 7 | 302 | 91 | -5 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB MLE | MIL | 65% | 394 | 359 | 83 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 89 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 233 | 295 | 361 | 656 | 128 | 281 | 23 | 7 | 293 | 85 | -7 | -0 | -5 | +4 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2041 | 34 | MLB MLE | MIL | 60% | 338 | 309 | 69 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 79 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 225 | 286 | 343 | 629 | 118 | 276 | 23 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -9 | -1 | -5 | +4 | +7 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | MIL | 45% | 129 | 117 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 238 | 301 | 353 | 655 | 116 | 287 | 21 | 7 | 294 | 87 | -2 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | MIL | 62% | 235 | 213 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 244 | 308 | 378 | 687 | 134 | 288 | 20 | 7 | 306 | 95 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIL | 68% | 301 | 272 | 68 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 61 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 249 | 314 | 396 | 710 | 147 | 289 | 20 | 7 | 316 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 1.1 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIL | 70% | 330 | 298 | 75 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 67 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 252 | 317 | 408 | 725 | 156 | 290 | 20 | 8 | 322 | 105 | +2 | +1 | -0 | +4 | +7 | 1.4 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIL | 70% | 347 | 314 | 79 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 70 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 253 | 319 | 414 | 733 | 161 | 290 | 20 | 7 | 325 | 107 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 1.5 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIL | 71% | 354 | 319 | 80 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 72 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 253 | 320 | 417 | 737 | 164 | 290 | 20 | 8 | 326 | 108 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 1.6 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIL | 69% | 347 | 314 | 79 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 71 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 252 | 319 | 414 | 733 | 162 | 290 | 20 | 7 | 325 | 107 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 1.5 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIL | 69% | 340 | 307 | 78 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 70 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 251 | 317 | 410 | 727 | 159 | 289 | 21 | 8 | 322 | 105 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +7 | 1.3 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIL | 67% | 323 | 292 | 72 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 67 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 248 | 315 | 404 | 718 | 155 | 288 | 21 | 7 | 319 | 103 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 1.1 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIL | 66% | 309 | 279 | 68 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 65 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 246 | 311 | 396 | 708 | 151 | 287 | 21 | 7 | 315 | 100 | -0 | +1 | -2 | +3 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | MIL | 65% | 296 | 269 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 64 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 242 | 307 | 387 | 694 | 145 | 285 | 22 | 7 | 309 | 96 | -1 | +1 | -2 | +3 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB CTX | MIL | 65% | 280 | 255 | 60 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 62 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 237 | 301 | 375 | 675 | 138 | 281 | 22 | 7 | 301 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB CTX | MIL | 65% | 254 | 231 | 54 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 57 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 231 | 293 | 360 | 654 | 129 | 277 | 22 | 7 | 292 | 85 | -5 | -0 | -3 | +3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2041 | 34 | MLB CTX | MIL | 60% | 203 | 185 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 47 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 223 | 284 | 343 | 627 | 120 | 272 | 23 | 7 | 281 | 77 | -5 | -1 | -3 | +2 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 4048 | 3665 | 900 | 135 | 32 | 115 | 299 | 848 | 49 | 106 | 24 | 246 | 311 | 394 | 705 | 148 | 288 | 21 | 7 | 313 | 96 | -5 | +12 | -19 | +43 | +88 | 12.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 589 | 144 | 22 | 5 | 18 | 48 | 136 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 244 | 311 | 390 | 701 | 146 | 287 | 21 | 7 | 313 | 96 | -1 | +2 | -3 | +7 | +14 | 1.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 7229 | 6560 | 1616 | 256 | 63 | 176 | 522 | 1514 | 91 | 289 | 57 | 246 | 311 | 385 | 696 | 139 | 293 | 21 | 7 | 310 | 96 | -16 | +19 | -31 | +68 | +138 | 18.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 146 | 23 | 6 | 16 | 47 | 136 | 8 | 26 | 5 | 247 | 312 | 388 | 700 | 141 | 294 | 21 | 7 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +2 | -3 | +7 | +14 | 1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 219 PAwOBA .357 → .313 (−43)K% 20.5% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.55% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 26.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 8.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.83% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 1.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×1.042 | 27.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.018 | ×1.042 | 5.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.018 | ×1.042 | 2.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.17% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .357 → .313; ISO .122 → .104; BABIP .375 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 61 PAwOBA .298 → .257 (−41)K% 18.0% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 4.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 1.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×1.050 | 26.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.958 | ×1.050 | 2.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.958 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 1.87% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .298 → .257; ISO .071 → .060; BABIP .318 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 309 PAwOBA .368 → .327 (−40)K% 13.3% → 17.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.27% | ÷1.033 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.06% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.29% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×1.045 | 25.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.03% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.045 | 5.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×1.045 | 2.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.214 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .368 → .327; ISO .161 → .126; BABIP .339 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 109 PAwOBA .228 → .172 (−57)K% 24.8% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.77% | ÷0.943 | ×1.270 | — | — | 33.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.50% | ÷0.965 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 4.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.050 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.51% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.050 | 12.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.013 | ×0.810 | ×0.976 | ×1.050 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.976 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.246 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 2.73% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 89, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .228 → .172; ISO .129 → .084; BABIP .194 → .171. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Brewers 1 · 184 PAwOBA .445 → .276 (−169)K% 8.2% → 10.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.15% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 10.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.15% | ÷0.994 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.72% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.70% | ÷1.021 | ×0.680 | ×0.951 | ×1.008 | 17.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.81% | ÷1.057 | ×0.600 | ×0.951 | ×1.008 | 5.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.088 | ×0.600 | ×0.951 | ×1.008 | 2.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.098 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.29% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 118, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .445 → .276; ISO .190 → .102; BABIP .426 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).