Tristan Peters
CF Chicago White Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAATB | 478 | .238/.345/.402 | 12 | 8 | 74 | — | .205/.288/.327 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAATB | 555 | .266/.358/.429 | 15 | 11 | 80 | — | .235/.301/.344 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLBCWS | 491 | .265/.338/.437 | 12 | 8 | 116 | 2.4 | |
| 2027PROJ | 27 | MLBCWS | 448 | .244/.319/.391 | 10 | 20 | 100 | 1.4 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 28 | MLBCWS | 483 | .242/.317/.386 | 11 | 19 | 98 | 1.3 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 29 | MLBCWS | 470 | .239/.314/.379 | 10 | 16 | 95 | 1.0 |
Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 55 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 55 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 239 | 352 | 391 | 743 | 152 | 312 | 25 | 15 | 330 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 149 | 132 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 31 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 212 | 302 | 303 | 605 | 91 | 270 | 21 | 10 | 281 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 383 | 330 | 101 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 61 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 306 | 393 | 485 | 877 | 179 | 351 | 16 | 12 | 383 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 415 | 363 | 100 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 66 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 275 | 363 | 421 | 785 | 146 | 318 | 16 | 10 | 351 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 478 | 408 | 97 | 21 | 5 | 12 | 63 | 94 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 238 | 345 | 402 | 747 | 164 | 280 | 20 | 13 | 335 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 555 | 482 | 128 | 28 | 3 | 15 | 65 | 102 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 266 | 358 | 429 | 787 | 164 | 306 | 18 | 12 | 350 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 491 | 437 | 116 | 31 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 90 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 265 | 338 | 437 | 775 | 172 | 309 | 18 | 8 | 341 | 116 | +9 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +11 | 2.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 491 | 437 | 116 | 31 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 90 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 265 | 338 | 437 | 775 | 172 | 309 | 18 | 8 | 341 | 117 | +10 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +11 | 2.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 55 | 49 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 163 | 241 | 265 | 506 | 102 | 242 | 36 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 149 | 136 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 38 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 199 | 268 | 279 | 548 | 81 | 271 | 26 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 383 | 341 | 86 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 34 | 79 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 252 | 324 | 402 | 725 | 150 | 298 | 21 | 9 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 415 | 378 | 95 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 79 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 251 | 315 | 365 | 680 | 114 | 301 | 19 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 478 | 425 | 87 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 111 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 205 | 288 | 327 | 615 | 122 | 256 | 23 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 555 | 503 | 118 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 44 | 116 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 235 | 301 | 344 | 645 | 109 | 285 | 21 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 491 | 437 | 116 | 31 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 90 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 265 | 338 | 437 | 775 | 172 | 309 | 18 | 8 | 340 | 116 | +9 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +11 | 2.4 |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 55 | 49 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 163 | 241 | 265 | 506 | 102 | 241 | 36 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 55 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 239 | 352 | 391 | 743 | 152 | 312 | 25 | 15 | 330 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 532 | 477 | 113 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 45 | 118 | 4 | 18 | 8 | 237 | 308 | 367 | 675 | 130 | 296 | 22 | 8 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 532 | 462 | 129 | 29 | 9 | 8 | 60 | 92 | 4 | 18 | 8 | 279 | 367 | 433 | 800 | 154 | 329 | 17 | 11 | 354 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 415 | 378 | 95 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 79 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 251 | 315 | 365 | 680 | 114 | 304 | 19 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 415 | 363 | 100 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 66 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 275 | 363 | 421 | 785 | 146 | 318 | 16 | 10 | 351 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 478 | 425 | 87 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 111 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 205 | 288 | 327 | 615 | 122 | 256 | 23 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 478 | 408 | 97 | 21 | 5 | 12 | 63 | 94 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 238 | 345 | 402 | 747 | 164 | 280 | 20 | 13 | 335 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 555 | 503 | 118 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 44 | 116 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 235 | 301 | 344 | 645 | 109 | 287 | 21 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 555 | 482 | 128 | 28 | 3 | 15 | 65 | 102 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 266 | 358 | 429 | 787 | 164 | 306 | 18 | 12 | 350 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 491 | 437 | 116 | 31 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 90 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 265 | 338 | 437 | 775 | 172 | 309 | 18 | 8 | 340 | 116 | +9 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +11 | 2.4 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB RAW | Chicago White Sox | — | 491 | 437 | 116 | 31 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 90 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 265 | 338 | 437 | 775 | 172 | 309 | 18 | 8 | 341 | 116 | +9 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +11 | 2.4 |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 55 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 160 | 241 | 260 | 501 | 100 | 242 | 36 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 532 | 478 | 113 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 45 | 118 | 4 | 18 | 8 | 236 | 308 | 366 | 674 | 130 | 290 | 22 | 8 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 415 | 377 | 95 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 79 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 252 | 315 | 366 | 681 | 114 | 301 | 19 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 478 | 425 | 87 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 111 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 205 | 288 | 327 | 615 | 122 | 256 | 23 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 555 | 502 | 118 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 44 | 116 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 235 | 301 | 345 | 646 | 110 | 285 | 21 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 491 | 440 | 116 | 31 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 90 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 264 | 338 | 434 | 772 | 170 | 309 | 18 | 8 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 478 | 425 | 87 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 111 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 205 | 288 | 327 | 615 | 122 | 256 | 23 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 555 | 502 | 118 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 44 | 116 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 235 | 301 | 345 | 646 | 110 | 285 | 21 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 491 | 440 | 116 | 31 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 90 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 264 | 338 | 434 | 772 | 170 | 309 | 18 | 8 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 100% | 523 | 466 | 114 | 26 | 4 | 12 | 43 | 102 | 9 | 23 | 5 | 243 | 319 | 388 | 707 | 145 | 285 | 20 | 8 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +3 | -0 | +2 | +11 | 1.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 100% | 448 | 400 | 97 | 22 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 87 | 8 | 20 | 4 | 244 | 319 | 391 | 710 | 147 | 286 | 19 | 8 | 317 | 100 | -0 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +10 | 1.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | CWS | 92% | 525 | 468 | 112 | 26 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 103 | 9 | 21 | 4 | 241 | 316 | 383 | 699 | 142 | 284 | 20 | 8 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +3 | -1 | +2 | +11 | 1.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | CWS | 92% | 511 | 456 | 109 | 25 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 102 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 238 | 313 | 376 | 689 | 138 | 282 | 20 | 8 | 309 | 95 | -3 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +11 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB MLE | CWS | 92% | 496 | 445 | 105 | 24 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 100 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 235 | 309 | 367 | 677 | 133 | 280 | 20 | 8 | 304 | 92 | -5 | +2 | -2 | +2 | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | CWS | 92% | 483 | 432 | 105 | 24 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 95 | 8 | 19 | 4 | 242 | 317 | 386 | 703 | 144 | 285 | 20 | 8 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +10 | 1.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | CWS | 92% | 470 | 421 | 101 | 23 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 94 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 239 | 314 | 379 | 693 | 140 | 283 | 20 | 8 | 310 | 95 | -3 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB CTX | CWS | 92% | 456 | 409 | 96 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 92 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 236 | 310 | 370 | 680 | 134 | 281 | 20 | 8 | 305 | 92 | -4 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +10 | 0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1900 | 1699 | 418 | 100 | 13 | 42 | 152 | 371 | 34 | 56 | 12 | 246 | 320 | 394 | 715 | 148 | 291 | 20 | 8 | 318 | 91 | +2 | +6 | -3 | +7 | +41 | 5.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 142 | 34 | 4 | 14 | 52 | 127 | 12 | 19 | 4 | 244 | 319 | 389 | 708 | 145 | 289 | 20 | 8 | 318 | 91 | +1 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4506 | 4038 | 960 | 214 | 38 | 83 | 366 | 926 | 64 | 137 | 45 | 238 | 311 | 371 | 682 | 133 | 287 | 21 | 8 | 303 | 91 | +1 | +9 | -4 | +9 | +54 | 7.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 138 | 31 | 5 | 12 | 53 | 134 | 9 | 20 | 6 | 237 | 311 | 369 | 680 | 132 | 286 | 21 | 8 | 303 | 91 | +0 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAADurham Bulls · 555 PAwOBA .343 → .287 (−56)K% 18.4% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.38% | ÷1.057 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.53% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.58% | ÷0.956 | ×0.930 | ×0.961 | ×1.033 | 20.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.37% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×1.033 | 6.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.961 | ×1.033 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.95% | ÷1.380 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.07% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .343 → .287; ISO .164 → .116; BABIP .306 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAADurham Bulls · 478 PAwOBA .328 → .277 (−50)K% 19.7% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.67% | ÷1.014 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.97% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.79% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×0.957 | ×1.048 | 17.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.69% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | ×1.048 | 5.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.59% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.957 | ×1.048 | 1.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.82% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.64% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .328 → .277; ISO .164 → .132; BABIP .280 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 415 PAwOBA .344 → .300 (−44)K% 15.9% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.90% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.12% | ÷1.072 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 6.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.93% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.949 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×1.027 | 21.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.030 | ×0.910 | ×0.987 | ×1.027 | 6.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.987 | ×1.027 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.36% | ÷1.087 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.78% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 90, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .344 → .300; ISO .146 → .121; BABIP .318 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 383 PAwOBA .379 → .316 (−63)K% 15.9% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.93% | ÷0.977 | ×1.270 | — | — | 20.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.75% | ÷0.944 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.52% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.79% | ÷1.083 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 20.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.18% | ÷1.049 | ×0.810 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.97% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 2.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.60% | ÷0.885 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.38% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 117, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 95, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .379 → .316; ISO .179 → .156; BABIP .351 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 149 PAwOBA .274 → .245 (−28)K% 20.8% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.81% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.07% | ÷1.018 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 7.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.81% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×1.042 | 19.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.93% | ÷1.011 | ×0.860 | ×1.017 | ×1.042 | 6.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.017 | ×1.042 | 1.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 0.87% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .274 → .245; ISO .091 → .082; BABIP .270 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Brewers Blue · 55 PAwOBA .328 → .228 (−100)K% 25.5% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.45% | ÷1.006 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.55% | ÷0.970 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 9.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 20.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.050 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 4.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 2.53% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 100, 2B 100, 3B 110, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .328 → .228; ISO .152 → .104; BABIP .312 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).