Jake Alu — OGILVIE

Jake AluLF Rochester Red Wings

Age 29 L/R 5'10" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA2

HR0

K%21

BB%5

BABIP295

ISO56

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023

CONTACT60

Whiff%

4911.0%

xAVG

350.239

POWER37

Barrel%

102.5

Avg EV

4388.6

Bat Spd

1767.8

EYE37

Chase%

1338.8%

SPEED61

Sprint

6628.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.0M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$0.6M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	213	197	52	12	1	5	13	43	2	5	3	264	316	411	727	147	313	20	6	323	105	+1	-0	—	—	+5	0.6
2021	24	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	157	145	44	10	1	5	8	32	4	8	0	303	357	490	846	186	361	20	5	374	139	+7	+2	—	—	+3	1.3
2022	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	242	217	70	15	1	11	19	44	1	6	2	323	380	553	933	230	353	18	8	399	156	+16	+0	—	—	+5	2.2
2022	25	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	325	285	80	25	1	9	32	59	5	9	1	281	363	470	834	189	323	18	10	367	134	+13	+1	—	—	+7	2.2
2023	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	175	159	36	2	1	2	10	42	3	5	1	226	285	289	574	63	291	24	6	260	62	-8	+1	+1	-6	+4	-0.8
2023	26	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	330	292	87	21	1	5	29	46	2	16	3	298	365	428	793	130	333	14	9	348	122	+9	+2	—	—	+7	1.8
2023	26	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	17	15	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	200	294	267	561	67	250	18	12	264	65	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2024	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	221	196	45	11	0	3	21	30	0	8	1	230	304	332	636	102	251	14	10	285	79	-5	+1	—	—	+5	0.1
2024	27	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	31	28	11	3	0	0	3	3	0	1	0	393	452	500	952	107	440	10	10	425	174	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	175	159	36	2	1	2	10	42	3	5	1	226	285	289	574	63	291	24	6	260	62	-8	+1	+1	-6	+4	-0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	213	201	45	9	1	4	9	53	2	5	3	224	264	338	602	114	283	25	4	260	62	-10	-0	—	—	+5	-0.5
2021	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	157	147	37	8	1	4	6	45	4	8	0	252	299	401	701	150	335	29	4	303	91	-2	+2	—	—	+3	0.3
2022	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	242	222	63	14	1	7	14	50	1	6	2	284	329	450	780	167	321	21	6	337	114	+4	+0	—	—	+5	1.0
2022	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	325	296	73	23	1	7	21	72	5	9	1	247	307	402	709	155	294	22	6	309	95	-2	+1	—	—	+7	0.7
2023	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	175	159	36	2	1	2	10	42	3	5	1	226	285	289	574	63	291	24	6	260	62	-8	+1	+1	-6	+4	-0.9
2023	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	330	300	75	15	1	3	21	56	2	16	3	250	303	337	640	87	287	17	6	284	78	-9	+2	—	—	+7	0.1
2023	26	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	188	235	250	485	62	233	24	6	212	30	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2024	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	221	202	40	10	0	2	15	38	0	8	1	198	253	277	531	79	221	17	7	236	46	-14	+1	—	—	+5	-0.8
2024	27	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	31	29	8	2	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	276	323	345	667	69	345	13	6	310	96	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2021	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	370	348	83	18	2	8	15	98	6	13	3	239	282	371	653	132	309	26	4	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	370	342	96	22	2	10	21	75	6	13	3	281	333	444	778	164	333	20	6	344	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	567	518	136	37	2	14	35	122	6	15	3	263	317	423	739	160	313	22	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	567	502	150	40	2	20	51	103	6	15	3	299	370	506	876	207	336	18	9	381	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	522	475	114	18	2	5	32	103	5	22	4	240	295	318	613	78	291	20	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	522	466	126	24	2	7	41	91	5	22	4	270	336	376	711	105	317	17	8	316	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	252	231	49	12	0	2	17	42	0	9	1	212	266	290	556	78	246	17	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	252	224	56	14	0	3	24	33	0	9	1	250	323	353	675	103	276	13	10	303	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	370	346	83	18	2	8	15	98	6	13	3	240	282	373	655	133	305	26	4	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	567	521	136	37	2	14	35	122	6	15	3	261	317	420	737	159	306	22	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	522	480	114	18	2	5	32	103	5	22	4	237	295	315	610	77	286	20	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	252	233	49	12	0	2	17	42	0	9	1	210	266	288	554	77	236	17	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	522	480	114	18	2	5	32	103	5	22	4	237	295	315	610	77	286	20	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	252	233	49	12	0	2	17	42	0	9	1	210	266	288	554	77	236	17	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	29	MLB MLE	WSH	10%	19	18	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	222	263	278	541	56	296	21	5	288	81	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.3
▸ 2026 — real world (MLB)
2026	29	MLB CTX	WSH	10%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						295	0	0	283	81	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	WSH	33%	330	303	73	14	1	4	22	66	2	9	2	241	297	333	630	92	295	20	7	289	82	-7	+1	-2	-4	+7	-0.5
2027	30	MLB CTX	WSH	33%	108	99	24	5	0	1	7	21	1	3	1	242	299	323	622	81	294	19	6	283	82	-2	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	283	258	60	7	1	3	17	63	4	8	2	233	290	302	593	70	292	22	6	269	80	-10	+1	+0	-7	+6	-1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	138	16	2	7	39	145	9	18	5	233	290	302	592	69	292	22	6	269	80	-23	+2	+0	-16	+14	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2060	1893	459	100	7	33	122	435	19	69	13	242	295	355	650	113	294	21	6	287	80	-15	+2	-1	-9	+11	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	145	32	2	10	38	137	6	22	4	243	294	353	648	111	295	21	6	287	80	-19	+2	-1	-12	+14	-1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Leury Garcíalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,387 PA	3.6	2,387	34	63	253	293	351	+5	+10	3.1	4.3
/162	664	9	18	+1.4	+2.7	0.9	pk7: 6
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	308	4	9	234	287	312	-2	+0	-0.3	-0.3
/162	664	8	19	-3.8	+0.5	-0.7	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Alu (OGILVIE)	29	60	37	61	37	244/297/339	95	296	3	8	19%	6%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mike Freeman 2017 · MLB	29	56→60	39→45	57→55	45	262/308/353	90	326	5	12	20%	6%	87	+0.4	245/300/341	96	323	8	11	25%	7%	82	+0.0	236/299/331	96	313	10	10	26%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Buck Coats 2010 · MLB	28	53→57	40	53→55	45	256/298/352	96	304	7	19	18%	6%	83	+0.1	255/302/349	94	304	7	12	18%	6%	84	+0.2	270/315/356	85	323	6	8	17%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Julio Borbon 2014 · MLB	28	51→61	40	56→60	48	246/295/345	99	286	7	23	17%	6%	81	-0.1	251/288/319	68	299	5	28	17%	5%	72	-0.7	276/309/341	66	321	4	28	15%	4%	83	+0.0
✕Hernan Iribarren 2013 · AAA	29	51→61	37→40	54→55	46	242/291/317	75	299	4	18	20%	6%	73	-0.6	237/286/304	67	297	3	13	20%	6%	68	-1.0	268/301/339	71	325	3	3	18%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Elian Herrera 2014 · MLB	29	52→57	39→40	53→60	46	244/303/332	88	314	6	18	23%	7%	82	-0.0	246/292/343	97	316	7	12	23%	6%	80	-0.2	250/292/345	95	322	6	10	23%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Kerry Robinson 2003 · MLB	29	53→62	40	55→60	49	253/302/349	95	285	6	21	14%	6%	84	+0.2	257/295/338	81	290	5	26	13%	5%	79	-0.2	283/317/343	60	317	2	32	11%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Adam Stern 2010 · AAA	30	53→57	38→40	55	46	249/293/331	83	295	4	23	17%	5%	76	-0.4	255/308/359	104	308	8	15	19%	7%	89	+0.5	278/335/385	107	339	8	11	19%	8%	100	+0.7
✕Rich Thompson 2008 · AAA	29	53→60	39→40	59→65	46	250/307/345	95	300	5	26	18%	6%	86	+0.3	247/298/340	93	303	5	27	19%	6%	81	-0.1	263/313/360	96	321	4	44	18%	5%	88	+0.4
✕Matt Angle 2014 · MLB	28	49→58	40	57→60	44	230/293/322	92	311	7	22	27%	7%	76	-0.4	211/275/287	76	301	5	18	29%	7%	61	-1.5	189/254/230	41	275	1	18	29%	7%	38	-1.2
✕Brad Coon 2012 · AAA	29	49→57	37→40	52→60	49	230/296/309	79	291	4	16	21%	8%	74	-0.6	220/293/302	82	283	5	16	22%	9%	72	-0.7	206/287/265	59	266	3	18	21%	10%	58	-1.0
✕Shawn O'Malley 2017 · MLB	29	53→58	40	56→60	48	252/313/353	101	313	7	21	21%	7%	90	+0.6	231/288/331	100	296	8	12	23%	7%	76	-0.4	219/270/300	81	281	6	6	23%	6%	59	-0.4
✕Tony Gwynn Jr. 2013 · MLB	30	51→57	38→40	59→60	49	242/298/329	88	293	4	28	18%	7%	78	-0.3	232/297/305	73	281	4	17	17%	8%	73	-0.6	224/294/281	57	267	2	15	15%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Will Rhymes 2011 · MLB	28	55→60	38→40	54→55	50	259/306/349	90	290	3	17	12%	6%	85	+0.2	254/310/334	80	283	4	12	11%	7%	84	+0.1	252/313/319	67	278	4	9	10%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Nate Orf 2019 · MLB	29	48→54	40→45	53→50	48	229/304/329	100	281	7	15	20%	7%	82	+0.0	226/314/337	111	275	11	14	21%	8%	88	+0.5	214/315/315	102	256	11	11	20%	9%	82	-0.0
✕Ian Miller 2021 · MLB	29	46→56	41→40	58→60	45	222/277/327	105	274	8	29	22%	6%	71	-0.8	229/282/320	91	289	6	21	22%	6%	71	-0.8	233/282/301	69	296	3	25	21%	5%	65	-0.8
✕Andrew Romine 2015 · MLB	29	50→55	38→40	53→55	46	239/291/312	72	296	5	20	21%	6%	72	-0.7	239/295/326	87	298	7	20	21%	6%	77	-0.3	239/298/328	88	296	7	19	20%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Jose Constanza 2013 · MLB	29	59→63	35→40	56→60	48	277/319/337	60	323	3	26	15%	6%	87	+0.4	258/298/306	48	304	2	25	15%	5%	72	-0.7	263/300/295	32	303	0	26	13%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Travis Jankowski 2020 · MLB	29	53→63	37→40	53→65	50	249/317/318	69	320	5	26	22%	9%	83	+0.1	238/323/317	79	307	5	24	22%	11%	86	+0.3	242/344/305	63	304	2	35	18%	13%	86	+0.1
✕Alcides Escobar 2016 · MLB	29	55→64	37→45	55	45	259/294/337	78	290	4	20	12%	4%	78	-0.3	252/286/347	95	288	6	12	14%	4%	78	-0.3	244/288/352	108	297	8	6	20%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2023 · MLB	28	55→56	39→40	53→55	48	262/311/342	81	295	6	20	14%	6%	86	+0.3	256/305/351	95	298	8	18	16%	5%	86	+0.3	262/305/349	88	305	7	19	16%	5%	84	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps