Jake Alu — OGILVIE

Jake Alu3B Rochester Red Wings

Age 29 L/R 5'10" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .297 / .339

PA250

HR3

SB8

K%20

BB%7

ISO98

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 59 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023

CONTACT59

Whiff%

4911.0%

xwOBA

280.283

POWER37

Barrel%

102.5

Avg EV

4388.6

Bat Spd

1767.8

EYE37

Chase%

1338.8%

SPEED61

Sprint

6628.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$0.6M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	24	AA	2 teams	—	370	347	84	18	2	9	16	104	6	13	3	242	287	383	671	141	319	28	4	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	2 teams	—	370	342	96	22	2	10	21	75	6	13	3	281	333	444	778	164	333	20	6	344	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	2 teams	—	567	518	140	40	2	17	35	125	6	15	3	270	324	454	777	183	320	22	6	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	2 teams	—	567	502	150	40	2	20	51	103	6	15	3	299	370	506	876	207	336	18	9	381	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	3 teams	—	522	474	114	17	2	6	33	104	5	22	4	241	297	323	620	82	291	20	6	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	3 teams	—	522	466	126	24	2	7	41	91	5	22	4	270	336	376	711	105	317	17	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	252	231	48	12	0	3	17	44	0	9	1	208	262	299	561	91	239	17	7	247	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	252	224	56	14	0	3	24	33	0	9	1	250	323	353	675	103	276	13	10	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	WSH	—	250	230	56	11	1	3	17	49	1	8	2	243	298	339	638	96	295	20	7	289	79	-6	+1	+0	-3	+7	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	WSH	33%	330	302	73	14	1	5	23	67	2	9	2	242	300	344	644	103	294	20	7	289	80	-8	+1	-2	-4	+9	-0.3
2028	31	MLB	WSH	46%	315	288	69	13	1	5	22	65	2	8	2	240	298	344	642	104	292	21	7	288	78	-8	+1	-3	-3	+9	-0.4
2029	32	MLB	WSH	54%	296	271	64	12	1	4	21	63	2	6	1	236	296	332	628	96	288	21	7	283	75	-8	+1	-3	-3	+8	-0.6
2027	30	MLB	WSH	33%	108	99	25	5	0	2	7	22	1	3	1	253	308	364	672	111	294	20	6	285	76	-3	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	31	MLB	WSH	46%	145	133	31	6	0	2	10	30	1	3	1	233	292	323	615	90	292	21	7	283	75	-4	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.3
2029	32	MLB	WSH	54%	159	146	33	6	0	2	11	34	1	3	1	226	285	308	593	82	288	21	7	279	71	-5	+0	-2	-2	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	587	537	125	19	1	8	38	128	6	14	4	233	291	317	607	84	288	22	6	275	69	-21	+1	-3	-10	+17	-1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	138	21	1	9	42	142	7	16	4	232	291	316	607	84	287	22	6	275	69	-23	+2	-3	-11	+18	-1.7
Career	—			—	2902	2661	648	137	10	52	184	621	24	90	18	244	298	361	660	118	296	21	6	289	80	-67	+11	-7	-31	+82	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	146	31	2	12	41	139	5	20	4	245	299	364	663	119	297	21	6	289	80	-15	+2	-2	-7	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	213	197	52	12	1	5	13	43	2	5	3	264	316	411	727	147	313	20	6	323	105	+1	-0	—	—	+6	0.7
2021	24	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	157	145	44	10	1	5	8	32	4	8	0	303	357	490	846	186	361	20	5	374	144	+8	+2	—	—	+4	1.4
2022	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	242	217	70	15	1	11	19	44	1	6	2	323	380	553	933	230	353	18	8	399	164	+17	+0	—	—	+7	2.5
2022	25	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	325	285	80	25	1	9	32	59	5	9	1	281	363	470	834	189	323	18	10	367	139	+14	+1	—	—	+9	2.5
2023	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	175	159	36	2	1	2	10	42	3	5	1	226	285	289	574	63	291	24	6	260	58	-8	+1	+1	-6	+5	-0.8
2023	26	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	330	292	87	21	1	5	29	46	2	16	3	298	365	428	793	130	333	14	9	348	125	+9	+2	—	—	+9	2.1
2023	26	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	17	15	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	200	294	267	561	67	250	18	12	264	60	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2024	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	221	196	45	11	0	3	21	30	0	8	1	230	304	332	636	102	251	14	10	285	77	-6	+1	—	—	+6	0.2
2024	27	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	31	28	11	3	0	0	3	3	0	1	0	393	452	500	952	107	440	10	10	425	184	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	175	159	36	2	1	2	10	42	3	5	1	226	285	289	574	63	291	24	6	260	58	-8	+1	+1	-6	+5	-0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#2Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#3Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#3Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
#4Jose Maciaslast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,785 PA	6	1,785	25	43	256	298	370	-8	+2	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	9	16	256	298	370	-3.1	+0.6	0.5	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	611	8	15	236	291	325	-1	+0	-0.2	-0.2
	/162	664	9	17	236	291	325	-0.7	+0.5	-0.3	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Alu (OGILVIE)	29	59	37	61	37	242/297/339	97	295	3	8	20%	7%	79	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kerry Robinson 2003 · MLB	29	53→62	40	55→60	49	253/302/349	95	285	6	21	14%	6%	82	+0.5	257/295/339	82	290	5	26	13%	5%	76	+0.1	283/317/345	62	317	2	32	11%	4%	83	+0.3
✕Adam Stern 2010 · AAA	30	52→56	38→40	55	45	248/292/332	84	295	5	23	17%	5%	73	-0.1	253/306/358	105	307	8	15	19%	7%	86	+0.8	274/332/382	108	334	8	11	19%	8%	98	+0.8
✕Mike Freeman 2018 · MLB	30	56→62	39→45	56→55	45	263/313/354	90	334	6	13	22%	6%	89	+0.9	238/296/348	110	313	11	10	26%	7%	81	+0.4	219/286/325	106	292	12	7	28%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Shawn O'Malley 2017 · MLB	29	54→58	40→45	56→60	47	256/314/359	103	316	6	21	21%	7%	91	+1.1	231/286/333	102	296	8	12	23%	6%	72	-0.2	217/267/299	83	279	6	6	24%	6%	52	-0.4
✕Hernan Iribarren 2013 · AAA	29	49→59	37→40	54→55	46	232/283/304	72	293	5	18	22%	6%	63	-0.9	231/280/297	66	295	3	13	21%	6%	59	-1.1	268/302/341	73	327	4	3	18%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Cory Sullivan 2009 · MLB	29	52→60	41→45	50	44	249/296/358	109	308	7	13	21%	6%	82	+0.5	236/296/327	91	279	6	11	17%	8%	75	-0.0	237/305/311	74	271	4	10	13%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Buck Coats 2010 · MLB	28	53→58	41→45	53→55	45	256/298/356	99	304	7	19	18%	5%	82	+0.5	257/303/355	98	304	8	12	17%	6%	84	+0.6	275/321/367	92	327	7	8	17%	6%	93	+1.0
✕Julio Borbon 2015 · MLB	29	53→62	38→45	56→60	46	252/294/330	79	295	6	27	17%	6%	74	-0.1	257/290/329	72	305	5	27	17%	4%	72	-0.2	272/304/342	70	319	5	28	16%	4%	78	+0.2
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2023 · MLB	28	55→56	39→40	53→55	48	261/310/342	81	294	7	20	14%	6%	84	+0.6	256/304/349	93	299	8	18	16%	5%	84	+0.6	264/305/353	89	308	7	18	16%	4%	83	+0.3
✕Ian Miller 2021 · MLB	29	46→56	43→40	58→60	43	225/276/337	112	275	10	29	22%	6%	69	-0.4	228/277/322	94	285	7	21	21%	6%	66	-0.6	230/279/303	73	289	3	25	20%	5%	59	-0.7
✕Raimel Tapia 2023 · MLB	29	52→62	41→45	52→55	47	251/294/351	101	289	8	16	17%	6%	79	+0.3	242/304/362	120	299	13	20	22%	8%	88	+0.9	229/308/329	100	295	12	33	25%	10%	79	+0.1
✕Matt Angle 2014 · MLB	28	46→56	39→40	57→60	43	218/281/304	87	302	7	22	29%	7%	63	-0.9	205/265/278	73	300	5	18	31%	7%	50	-1.8	187/249/226	39	279	1	18	31%	7%	26	-1.3
✕Elian Herrera 2014 · MLB	29	49→55	39→40	52→60	45	234/293/318	84	306	6	18	24%	7%	71	-0.3	242/287/339	97	312	8	12	24%	6%	73	-0.1	247/288/343	96	319	7	10	24%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Brad Coon 2012 · AAA	29	47→57	37→40	52→60	49	223/289/301	78	286	4	16	22%	8%	66	-0.6	214/289/296	82	280	5	16	23%	9%	64	-0.8	199/283/258	58	262	3	18	22%	10%	50	-1.0
✕Matt Tolbert 2011 · MLB	29	50→56	40→45	54→50	47	239/285/343	104	282	6	15	17%	6%	73	-0.1	213/265/287	74	260	3	13	18%	6%	51	-1.7	219/267/257	38	267	1	11	17%	6%	41	-0.8
✕Rich Thompson 2008 · AAA	29	53→61	39→45	59→65	46	249/306/346	96	300	5	26	18%	6%	84	+0.6	249/299/345	96	305	5	27	19%	6%	80	+0.4	265/314/370	105	322	4	44	18%	4%	90	+0.8
●Jason Pridie 2013 · MLB	29	48→54	44→50	55	44	237/284/354	117	297	11	14	24%	6%	76	+0.1	238/284/375	137	303	15	16	26%	6%	82	+0.5	243/290/391	148	303	17	19	25%	6%	86	+0.7
✕Andrew Romine 2015 · MLB	29	50→56	38→45	53→55	46	238/290/310	72	296	5	20	21%	6%	67	-0.5	241/296/330	89	301	8	20	21%	6%	76	+0.0	243/301/335	91	300	7	19	20%	6%	76	+0.0
✕Will Rhymes 2011 · MLB	28	55→60	38→40	54→55	50	258/305/351	93	288	4	17	12%	6%	84	+0.6	256/313/340	84	284	5	12	11%	7%	85	+0.7	256/318/328	72	282	4	9	10%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Pedro Ciriaco 2015 · MLB	29	50→58	40	57→55	39	241/267/337	96	294	6	22	20%	3%	64	-0.8	230/252/307	77	288	5	15	21%	2%	50	-1.8	232/248/288	56	286	3	15	20%	1%	40	-1.2