Jacob Wilson
SS Athletics| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AAA/AA/ROKOAK | 226 | .433/.476/.668 | 7 | 2 | 174 | — | .387/.422/.575 |
| 2024 | 22 | MLBOakland Athle… | 103 | .250/.317/.315 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 0.2 | |
| 2025 | 23 | MLBOAK | 523 | .311/.356/.444 | 13 | 5 | 121 | 3.1 | |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBOAK | 337 | .266/.299/.388 | 7 | 4 | 87 | 1.0 | |
| 2027PROJ | 25 | MLBOAK | 178 | .284/.328/.415 | 4 | 2 | 104 | 0.6 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 26 | MLBOAK | 351 | .284/.328/.415 | 8 | 4 | 104 | 1.2 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 27 | MLBOAK | 347 | .283/.327/.412 | 7 | 4 | 103 | 1.2 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 99 | 88 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 318 | 381 | 455 | 836 | 136 | 346 | 10 | 6 | 367 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 103 | 92 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 317 | 315 | 632 | 65 | 277 | 10 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 116 | 106 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 396 | 448 | 613 | 1.061 | 217 | 392 | 4 | 8 | 465 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 93 | 88 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 455 | 478 | 705 | 1.183 | 250 | 487 | 11 | 2 | 511 | 178 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 17 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 571 | 647 | 857 | 1.504 | 286 | 571 | 0 | 18 | 638 | 189 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Athletics | — | 523 | 486 | 151 | 26 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 39 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 311 | 356 | 444 | 800 | 134 | 317 | 7 | 5 | 355 | 121 | +13 | +0 | +1 | +6 | +11 | 3.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 15 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 500 | 767 | 286 | 154 | 0 | 7 | 331 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Athletics | — | 337 | 320 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 39 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 266 | 299 | 388 | 686 | 122 | 284 | 12 | 4 | 304 | 87 | -5 | +1 | +3 | +4 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 333 | 250 | 583 | 83 | 167 | 0 | 13 | 288 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 963 | 898 | 259 | 44 | 3 | 20 | 47 | 88 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 288 | 332 | 411 | 743 | 122 | 301 | 9 | 5 | 330 | 109 | +11 | +1 | +2 | +13 | +21 | 4.9 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 99 | 90 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 300 | 351 | 422 | 773 | 122 | 336 | 14 | 4 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 103 | 92 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 317 | 315 | 632 | 65 | 277 | 10 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 116 | 108 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 380 | 422 | 546 | 969 | 167 | 383 | 5 | 6 | 416 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 93 | 89 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 393 | 413 | 607 | 1.020 | 213 | 428 | 14 | 1 | 432 | 178 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 17 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 471 | 600 | 1.071 | 200 | 401 | 0 | 12 | 447 | 189 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 523 | 487 | 147 | 23 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 39 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 302 | 346 | 429 | 775 | 127 | 317 | 7 | 5 | 347 | 121 | +13 | +0 | +1 | +6 | +11 | 3.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 15 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 500 | 767 | 286 | 135 | 0 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 337 | 320 | 82 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 39 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 256 | 290 | 372 | 661 | 116 | 284 | 12 | 4 | 297 | 87 | -5 | +1 | +3 | +4 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 231 | 497 | 77 | 154 | 0 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 99 | 90 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 300 | 351 | 422 | 773 | 122 | 342 | 14 | 4 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 99 | 88 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 318 | 381 | 455 | 836 | 136 | 346 | 10 | 6 | 367 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 329 | 304 | 106 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 349 | 393 | 500 | 893 | 151 | 369 | 9 | 5 | 381 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA RAW | 4 teams | — | 329 | 300 | 113 | 30 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 377 | 426 | 560 | 986 | 183 | 393 | 8 | 7 | 430 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 538 | 501 | 150 | 24 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 39 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 299 | 344 | 431 | 775 | 132 | 303 | 7 | 5 | 344 | 119 | +12 | +0 | +1 | +6 | +12 | 3.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 538 | 500 | 154 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 39 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 308 | 353 | 446 | 799 | 138 | 312 | 7 | 5 | 355 | 119 | +12 | +0 | +1 | +6 | +12 | 3.1 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 352 | 333 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 252 | 289 | 366 | 655 | 114 | 267 | 11 | 4 | 295 | 86 | -6 | +1 | +3 | +4 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 352 | 332 | 87 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 262 | 300 | 383 | 683 | 120 | 279 | 11 | 4 | 303 | 86 | -6 | +1 | +3 | +4 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 99 | 92 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 293 | 351 | 413 | 764 | 120 | 336 | 14 | 4 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 329 | 304 | 106 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 349 | 393 | 500 | 893 | 151 | 363 | 9 | 5 | 381 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 538 | 499 | 150 | 24 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 39 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 301 | 344 | 433 | 777 | 132 | 312 | 7 | 5 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 352 | 332 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 253 | 289 | 367 | 656 | 114 | 278 | 11 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 329 | 304 | 106 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 349 | 393 | 500 | 893 | 151 | 363 | 9 | 5 | 381 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 538 | 499 | 150 | 24 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 39 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 301 | 344 | 433 | 777 | 132 | 312 | 7 | 5 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 352 | 332 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 253 | 289 | 367 | 656 | 114 | 278 | 11 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | OAK | 100% | 411 | 383 | 106 | 19 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 277 | 321 | 403 | 724 | 126 | 292 | 11 | 5 | 321 | 104 | +2 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +9 | 0.8 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | OAK | 100% | 178 | 165 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 284 | 328 | 415 | 743 | 131 | 301 | 11 | 5 | 329 | 104 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | 0.6 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 381 | 355 | 97 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 276 | 321 | 403 | 724 | 126 | 292 | 11 | 5 | 321 | 104 | +2 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 377 | 351 | 96 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 276 | 320 | 400 | 720 | 125 | 291 | 11 | 5 | 320 | 103 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 370 | 345 | 95 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 274 | 318 | 396 | 714 | 122 | 291 | 11 | 5 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 357 | 332 | 90 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 272 | 315 | 390 | 706 | 119 | 290 | 11 | 5 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +8 | 0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 344 | 320 | 87 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 269 | 312 | 383 | 695 | 114 | 288 | 12 | 5 | 309 | 95 | -2 | -0 | -3 | +4 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 324 | 303 | 81 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 307 | 373 | 679 | 108 | 286 | 12 | 5 | 303 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -4 | +3 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 300 | 280 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 299 | 358 | 657 | 100 | 281 | 13 | 5 | 293 | 85 | -5 | +0 | -4 | +3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 263 | 247 | 62 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 290 | 340 | 630 | 90 | 275 | 13 | 5 | 282 | 77 | -7 | +0 | -5 | +3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 351 | 327 | 93 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 38 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 284 | 328 | 415 | 743 | 131 | 301 | 11 | 5 | 329 | 104 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 1.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 347 | 323 | 90 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 283 | 327 | 412 | 739 | 129 | 300 | 11 | 5 | 328 | 103 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 340 | 316 | 89 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 39 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 281 | 325 | 408 | 733 | 127 | 300 | 11 | 5 | 325 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 328 | 306 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 279 | 322 | 402 | 724 | 123 | 299 | 12 | 5 | 321 | 98 | -1 | -0 | -2 | +4 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 316 | 295 | 81 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 276 | 319 | 394 | 713 | 118 | 297 | 12 | 5 | 317 | 95 | -2 | -0 | -3 | +3 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 298 | 279 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 271 | 313 | 384 | 697 | 113 | 294 | 12 | 5 | 310 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 276 | 258 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 306 | 368 | 674 | 104 | 289 | 13 | 5 | 301 | 85 | -5 | +0 | -4 | +3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 242 | 227 | 57 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 296 | 350 | 646 | 94 | 283 | 13 | 5 | 289 | 77 | -7 | +0 | -5 | +3 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3461 | 3229 | 898 | 164 | 10 | 66 | 167 | 384 | 37 | 21 | 7 | 278 | 321 | 396 | 717 | 118 | 298 | 11 | 5 | 320 | 102 | -3 | +1 | -19 | +40 | +75 | 9.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 606 | 169 | 31 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 72 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 279 | 321 | 396 | 717 | 117 | 299 | 11 | 5 | 320 | 102 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +14 | 1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4212 | 3926 | 1094 | 197 | 11 | 85 | 203 | 462 | 48 | 30 | 10 | 279 | 322 | 399 | 721 | 121 | 297 | 11 | 5 | 319 | 102 | -4 | +2 | -21 | +44 | +84 | 10.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 606 | 169 | 30 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 71 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 279 | 321 | 399 | 720 | 120 | 297 | 11 | 5 | 319 | 102 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +14 | 1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 15 PAwOBA .282 → .249 (−32)K% 0.0% → 0.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 0.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 6.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 8.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 7.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .282 → .249; ISO .083 → .076; BABIP .167 → .154. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 15 PAwOBA .321 → .249 (−72)K% 0.0% → 0.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 0.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.052 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 6.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.183 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.44% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .321 → .249; ISO .286 → .200; BABIP .154 → .135. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 116 PAwOBA .452 → .416 (−35)K% 4.3% → 5.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.31% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 5.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.76% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.73% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×1.048 | ×1.050 | 28.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.89% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×1.048 | ×1.050 | 9.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.048 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.96% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.91% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .452 → .416; ISO .217 → .172; BABIP .392 → .383. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 93 PAwOBA .502 → .432 (−70)K% 10.8% → 13.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.75% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 1.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.15% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×1.041 | ×1.042 | 28.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.170 | ×0.840 | ×1.041 | ×1.042 | 12.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.041 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.940 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 3.41% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 112, 2B 134, 3B 130, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .502 → .432; ISO .250 → .203; BABIP .487 → .428. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Athletics · 17 PAwOBA .622 → .447 (−174)K% 0.0% → 0.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 0.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.986 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 10.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.027 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 22.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.124 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 17.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.907 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.852 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 125, 3B 81, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .622 → .447; ISO .286 → .193; BABIP .571 → .401. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 99 PAwOBA .361 → .332 (−29)K% 10.1% → 13.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.10% | ÷0.938 | ×1.270 | — | — | 13.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.06% | ÷1.036 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 4.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 2.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 23.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷0.946 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 10.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.209 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.87% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 88, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .361 → .332; ISO .136 → .119; BABIP .346 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).