Albert Almora Jr.

CF Reno Aces

Age 33 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 11.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	29	INTLCangrejeros d…	148	.216/.286/.284	0	2	63	—
2024	30	AAAARI	576	.292/.351/.438	9	20	65	—	.230/.275/.331
2025	31	AAAARI	325	.271/.338/.395	5	9	70	—	.237/.288/.338
2027PROJ10% MLB	33	MLBARI	32	.253/.299/.367	0	1	80	0.0
2028PROJ	34	MLBARI	262	.243/.288/.346	2	3	71	-0.7

Next 2 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service11.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2020-2022

Speed52

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

CompsRusney Castillo (age 32) · Gil Velazquez (age 32) · Eliezer Ortiz (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.253 / .299 / .367

PA32

HR0

K%19

BB%6

BABIP308

ISO67

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2020-2022

CONTACT55

xAVG

100.210

POWER40

Barrel%

101.3

Avg EV

1085.2

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

5227.6

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 11.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.1M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	18	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	80	75	26	5	1	1	2	8	1	5	1	347	372	480	852	133	368	10	2	368	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	Kane County Cougars	—	272	249	82	17	4	3	17	30	3	4	4	329	379	466	845	137	362	11	6	372	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	79	75	23	6	2	1	4	9	0	0	3	307	342	480	822	173	338	11	5	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	144	141	33	7	2	2	2	23	1	0	1	234	250	355	605	121	267	16	1	267	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	385	367	104	20	2	7	12	46	2	6	3	283	310	406	716	123	305	12	3	315	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	452	405	110	26	4	6	32	47	4	8	4	272	330	400	730	128	291	10	7	320	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	117	112	31	9	1	3	5	20	0	0	0	277	308	455	763	179	315	17	4	335	111	+2	+0	+1	+2	+3	0.7
2016	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	336	320	97	18	3	4	9	44	0	10	3	303	322	416	738	113	336	13	3	321	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	323	299	89	18	1	8	19	53	0	1	0	298	340	445	784	147	338	16	6	343	116	+6	+0	-1	+1	+7	1.4
2018	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	479	444	127	24	1	5	24	83	3	1	3	286	327	378	705	92	337	17	5	312	95	-3	-1	+11	+2	+10	2.0
2019	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	363	339	80	11	1	12	16	62	1	2	1	236	272	381	653	145	255	17	4	285	74	-11	+0	+1	+1	+8	-0.1
2019	25	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	54	49	11	3	1	0	4	7	0	2	1	224	283	327	610	102	262	13	7	270	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	34	30	5	1	0	0	3	9	1	0	0	167	265	200	465	33	238	26	9	227	39	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.2
2021	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	54	52	6	3	0	0	2	17	0	0	0	115	148	173	321	58	171	31	4	147	-10	-7	+0	+1	+1	+1	-0.5
2021	27	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	169	152	41	6	0	6	13	18	2	2	5	270	335	428	763	158	269	11	8	337	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	235	215	48	10	1	5	17	46	1	3	2	223	283	349	632	126	261	20	7	283	74	-7	-0	+5	-4	+5	-0.1
2022	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	83	81	24	4	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	296	313	346	659	49	329	10	2	297	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	16	16	5	0	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	312	312	312	625		417	25	0	283	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	148	134	29	5	2	0	10	27	3	2	0	216	286	284	569	67	271	18	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	Reno Aces	—	576	520	152	45	2	9	42	81	5	20	7	292	351	438	789	146	329	14	7	347	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	Reno Aces	—	325	291	79	13	4	5	27	56	2	9	5	271	338	395	733	124	318	17	8	324	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1605	1491	386	76	5	33	86	290	6	7	6	259	302	383	685	124	299	18	5	302	91	-18	-1	+18	+3	+35	3.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	80	76	22	4	1	1	1	12	1	5	1	289	308	408	716	118	303	15	1	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	272	255	72	15	3	3	11	42	3	4	4	282	320	400	720	118	324	15	4	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	144	142	32	6	2	2	1	29	1	0	1	225	236	338	574	113	268	20	1	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	385	371	98	19	2	7	8	68	2	6	3	264	283	383	666	119	301	18	2	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	452	415	104	25	4	5	23	59	4	8	4	251	296	366	663	116	270	13	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	117	112	31	9	1	3	5	20	0	0	0	277	308	455	763	179	315	17	4	332	111	+2	+0	+1	+2	+3	0.7
2016	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	336	323	92	17	3	4	6	55	0	10	3	285	298	393	691	108	316	16	2	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	323	300	88	17	1	8	18	53	0	1	0	293	333	437	770	143	338	16	6	340	116	+6	+0	-1	+1	+7	1.4
2018	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	479	445	126	23	1	5	23	83	3	1	3	283	323	373	696	90	337	17	5	309	95	-3	-1	+11	+2	+10	2.0
2019	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	363	343	80	11	1	12	12	62	1	2	1	233	261	376	637	143	255	17	3	277	74	-11	+0	+1	+1	+8	-0.1
2019	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	54	50	10	2	1	0	3	9	0	2	1	200	245	280	525	80	234	17	6	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	34	30	5	1	0	0	3	9	1	0	0	167	265	200	465	33	238	26	9	226	39	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	54	52	6	3	0	0	2	17	0	0	0	115	148	173	321	58	171	31	4	153	-10	-7	+0	+1	+1	+1	-0.5
2021	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	169	156	34	5	0	4	9	22	2	2	5	218	269	327	596	109	229	13	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	235	215	48	10	1	5	17	46	1	3	2	223	283	349	632	126	261	20	7	278	74	-7	-0	+5	-4	+5	-0.1
2022	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	83	82	22	3	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	268	277	305	582	37	308	12	1	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	16	16	4	0	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	250	250	250	500		363	31	0	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	576	534	123	35	2	5	28	101	5	20	7	230	275	331	607	101	268	18	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	325	299	71	10	4	4	19	66	2	9	5	237	287	338	625	100	283	20	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	80	76	22	4	1	1	1	12	1	5	1	289	308	408	716	118	323	15	1	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	—	80	75	26	5	1	1	2	8	1	5	1	347	372	480	852	133	368	10	2	368	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	351	331	93	19	4	4	14	54	3	4	7	281	316	399	715	118	324	15	4	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	351	324	105	23	6	4	21	39	3	4	7	324	371	469	840	145	357	11	6	369	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	529	512	129	25	3	8	10	97	3	6	4	252	270	359	630	107	294	18	2	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	529	508	137	27	4	9	14	69	3	6	4	270	293	392	685	122	295	13	3	302	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	452	415	104	25	4	5	23	59	4	8	4	251	296	366	663	116	277	13	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	—	452	405	110	26	4	6	32	47	4	8	4	272	330	400	730	128	291	10	7	320	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	453	435	122	25	4	7	11	75	0	10	3	280	298	405	703	124	321	17	2	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	453	432	128	27	4	7	14	64	0	10	3	296	318	426	744	130	331	14	3	324	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	323	300	88	17	1	8	18	53	0	1	0	293	333	437	770	143	332	16	6	340	116	+6	+0	-1	+1	+7	1.4
2017	23	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	323	299	89	18	1	8	19	53	0	1	0	298	340	445	784	147	338	16	6	343	116	+6	+0	-1	+1	+7	1.4
2018	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	479	445	126	23	1	5	23	83	3	1	3	283	323	373	696	90	333	17	5	309	95	-3	-1	+11	+2	+10	2.0
2018	24	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	479	444	127	24	1	5	24	83	3	1	3	286	327	378	705	92	337	17	5	312	95	-3	-1	+11	+2	+10	2.0
2019	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	417	393	89	13	2	12	15	71	1	4	2	226	257	361	618	135	247	17	4	271	70	-15	+0	+1	+1	+9	-0.4
2019	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	417	388	91	14	2	12	20	69	1	4	2	235	274	374	648	139	256	17	5	283	70	-15	+0	+1	+1	+9	-0.4
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	34	30	5	1	0	0	3	9	1	0	0	167	265	200	465	33	238	26	9	226	39	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.2
2020	26	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	34	30	5	1	0	0	3	9	1	0	0	167	265	200	465	33	238	26	9	227	39	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.2
2021	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	223	208	41	9	0	4	11	39	2	2	5	197	244	298	542	101	222	17	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	223	204	47	9	0	6	15	35	2	2	5	230	290	363	652	132	248	16	7	291	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	334	313	74	14	1	5	18	61	1	4	2	236	280	335	616	99	278	18	5	271	70	-12	+0	+5	-4	+7	-0.4
2022	28	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	334	312	77	14	1	5	19	58	1	4	2	247	292	346	638	99	288	17	6	286	70	-12	+0	+5	-4	+7	-0.4
2023	29	INTL MLE	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	148	134	29	5	2	0	10	27	3	2	0	216	286	284	569	67	271	18	7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	INTL RAW	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	148	134	29	5	2	0	10	27	3	2	0	216	286	284	569	67	271	18	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	576	534	123	35	2	5	28	101	5	20	7	230	275	331	607	101	273	18	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	576	520	152	45	2	9	42	81	5	20	7	292	351	438	789	146	329	14	7	347	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	325	299	71	10	4	4	19	66	2	9	5	237	287	338	625	100	289	20	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	325	291	79	13	4	5	27	56	2	9	5	271	338	395	733	124	318	17	8	324	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	80	78	22	4	1	1	1	12	1	5	1	282	308	397	705	115	303	15	1	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	351	331	93	19	4	4	14	54	3	4	7	281	316	399	715	118	324	15	4	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	529	511	129	25	3	8	10	97	3	6	4	252	270	360	631	108	292	18	2	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	452	422	104	25	4	5	23	59	4	8	4	246	296	360	657	114	270	13	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	453	439	122	25	4	7	11	75	0	10	3	278	298	401	699	123	316	17	2	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	323	302	88	17	1	8	18	53	0	1	0	291	333	434	767	142	338	16	6	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	479	450	126	23	1	5	23	83	3	1	3	280	323	369	692	89	337	17	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	417	398	89	13	2	12	15	71	1	4	2	224	257	357	614	133	252	17	4	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	34	30	5	1	0	0	3	9	1	0	0	167	265	200	465	33	238	26	9	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	223	208	41	9	0	4	11	39	2	2	5	197	244	298	542	101	215	17	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	334	312	74	14	1	5	18	61	1	4	2	237	280	337	617	99	277	18	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	576	538	123	35	2	5	28	101	5	20	7	229	275	329	604	100	268	18	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	325	301	71	10	4	4	19	66	2	9	5	236	287	336	623	100	283	20	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	576	538	123	35	2	5	28	101	5	20	7	229	275	329	604	100	268	18	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	325	301	71	10	4	4	19	66	2	9	5	236	287	336	623	100	283	20	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	ARI	10%	418	389	95	20	3	5	23	83	3	10	4	245	291	350	641	105	296	20	6	286	80	-10	+0	+1	+1	+9	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	32	30	7	2	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	253	299	367	666	114	308	19	6	296	80	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	262	244	58	12	2	3	14	54	2	3	2	235	280	330	610	95	288	21	5	273	71	-9	-0	-4	+1	+6	-0.7
2028	34	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	262	244	58	13	2	2	14	54	2	3	2	243	288	346	633	103	299	21	5	283	71	-9	-0	-4	+1	+6	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1867	1735	444	89	7	35	100	344	8	10	8	256	300	376	675	120	299	18	5	299	74	-27	-1	+14	+4	+40	3.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	604	154	31	2	12	35	120	3	3	3	255	299	373	672	118	298	18	5	299	74	-9	-0	+5	+1	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5305	4966	1246	252	33	75	235	924	33	87	48	251	289	360	650	109	292	17	4	277	74	-35	-1	+14	+5	+47	3.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	608	153	31	4	9	29	113	4	11	6	252	290	360	650	109	293	17	4	277	74	-10	-0	+4	+2	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAReno Aces · 325 PAwOBA .319 → .272 (−47)K% 17.2% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.23%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	20.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.31%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.72%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.56%
Singles /BIP	24.26%	÷0.994	×0.930	×1.017	×0.962	22.19%
Doubles /BIP	5.53%	÷1.069	×0.830	×1.017	×0.962	4.20%
Triples /BIP	1.70%	÷0.902	×0.970	×1.017	×0.962	1.79%
Home runs /BIP	2.13%	÷0.904	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.58%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .319 → .272; ISO .124 → .103; BABIP .318 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 576 PAwOBA .340 → .265 (−74)K% 14.1% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.06%	÷0.964	×1.200	—	—	17.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.29%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.83%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.79%
Singles /BIP	21.87%	÷1.076	×0.930	×0.993	×0.972	18.25%
Doubles /BIP	10.25%	÷1.025	×0.830	×0.993	×0.972	8.02%
Triples /BIP	0.46%	÷1.017	×0.970	×0.993	×0.972	0.42%
Home runs /BIP	2.05%	÷1.124	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.24%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 103, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .340 → .265; ISO .146 → .107; BABIP .329 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 83 PAwOBA .289 → .260 (−29)K% 9.6% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.64%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	12.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.41%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.992	1.61%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.40%	÷0.996	×0.930	×1.022	×0.992	25.93%
Doubles /BIP	5.48%	÷0.955	×0.830	×1.022	×0.992	4.83%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.022	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.282	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .289 → .260; ISO .049 → .043; BABIP .329 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 16 PAwOBA .275 → .222 (−53)K% 25.0% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.047	×1.270	—	—	30.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.958	×0.710	—	×0.948	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.948	0.00%
Singles /BIP	41.67%	÷1.002	×0.920	—	×0.948	36.25%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.217	×0.810	—	×0.948	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.028	×0.850	—	×0.948	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.058	×0.800	—	×0.948	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 143, 3B 106, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .275 → .222; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .417 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 169 PAwOBA .332 → .267 (−65)K% 10.7% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.65%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	13.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×1.003	5.29%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.12%
Singles /BIP	21.64%	÷1.032	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	18.59%
Doubles /BIP	4.48%	÷0.897	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	3.95%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.986	×0.920	×0.950	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.48%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.02%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 79, 3B 97, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .332 → .267; ISO .158 → .116; BABIP .269 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAIowa Cubs · 54 PAwOBA .263 → .227 (−36)K% 13.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.96%	÷1.025	×1.290	—	—	16.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷0.968	×0.710	—	×1.033	5.61%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.993	×0.900	—	×1.033	15.61%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.014	×0.810	—	×1.033	5.89%
Triples /BIP	2.38%	÷1.029	×0.810	—	×1.033	1.94%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.050	×0.780	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 106, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .263 → .227; ISO .102 → .084; BABIP .262 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAIowa Cubs · 336 PAwOBA .316 → .291 (−25)K% 13.1% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.10%	÷1.037	×1.290	—	—	16.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.68%	÷1.034	×0.710	—	×1.050	1.93%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.09%	÷1.006	×0.900	×1.009	×1.050	24.71%
Doubles /BIP	6.52%	÷0.927	×0.810	×1.009	×1.050	6.03%
Triples /BIP	1.09%	÷0.945	×0.810	×1.009	×1.050	0.99%
Home runs /BIP	1.45%	÷0.890	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.33%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 101, 2B 85, 3B 89, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .316 → .291; ISO .113 → .103; BABIP .336 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AATennessee Smokies · 452 PAwOBA .315 → .286 (−29)K% 10.4% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.40%	÷0.967	×1.220	—	—	13.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.86%	÷0.959	×0.680	—	×1.050	5.11%
HBP% /PA	0.88%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.78%
Singles /BIP	20.67%	÷1.026	×0.920	×0.988	×1.050	19.23%
Doubles /BIP	7.26%	÷0.998	×0.910	×0.988	×1.050	6.87%
Triples /BIP	1.12%	÷1.058	×0.880	×0.988	×1.050	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	1.68%	÷1.048	×0.800	—	×1.050	1.34%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 112, K 93, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .315 → .286; ISO .128 → .116; BABIP .291 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Juan Lagareslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	31	45	250	291	360	+8	+49	7.3	7.7
/162	664	8	12	+2.1	+13.0	1.9	pk7: 8
#2Leury Garcíalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,387 PA	3.6	2,387	34	63	253	293	351	+5	+10	3.1	4.3
/162	664	9	18	+1.4	+2.7	0.9	pk7: 6
#3Steve Brye'70-'78 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,184 PA	3.3	2,184	30	16	259*	312*	407*	-8	+7	3.9	4.2
/162	664	9	5	-2.5	+2.1	1.2	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	2.8	1,865	36	11	257	295	378	+4	+18	2.7	3.0
/162	664	13	4	+1.5	+6.6	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Steve Lyons'85-'93 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,388 PA	3.6	2,388	19	42	250*	302*	360*	-4	+15	1.5	2.2
/162	664	5	12	-1.2	+4.2	0.4	pk7: 3
#5Timo Perez'00-'07 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,825 PA	2.7	1,825	26	23	259*	298*	372*	-12	+6	0.0	0.7
/162	664	9	8	-4.3	+2.3	0.0	pk7: 1
#6Luis Melendez'70-'77 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	9	18	245*	296*	347*	-5	+9	-0.1	0.0
/162	664	4	7	-2.2	+3.7	-0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Albert Almora Jr. (OGILVIE)	33	55	40	50	40	242/289/347	105	296	4	8	20%	5%	80	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rusney Castillo 2019 · AAA	32	54→57	41→45	48→50	41	259/291/354	96	307	8	14	19%	4%	82	-0.0	241/277/363	122	274	13	10	17%	4%	79	-0.2	233/265/365	132	253	16	5	15%	3%	72	-0.6
✕Gil Velazquez 2012 · AAA	32	50→57	39→45	50	46	238/285/328	91	282	6	14	18%	6%	74	-0.6	247/303/312	65	296	4	8	17%	7%	76	-0.4	247/307/292	45	296	2	5	16%	8%	71	-0.6
✕Eliezer Ortiz 2019 · AAA	32	51→58	39→40	50→55	38	242/281/327	85	309	6	15	23%	4%	72	-0.7	224/283/319	95	289	8	11	24%	5%	72	-0.7	212/272/282	70	276	6	8	24%	4%	57	-1.0
✕Eder Salcedo 2015 · AAA	32	52→60	41→40	48→50	44	253/288/348	95	292	9	11	17%	5%	79	-0.2	228/260/316	88	264	8	9	17%	4%	61	-1.5	231/257/300	68	267	6	7	16%	3%	55	-1.2
✕Carlos Orrantia 2015 · AAA	33	50→54	41→45	48→55	42	241/279/340	99	290	8	15	20%	5%	74	-0.5	226/267/304	78	284	6	9	22%	4%	61	-1.5	219/257/277	58	279	5	6	23%	4%	49	-1.1
✕Noe Mata 2007 · AAA	33	52→57	43→45	46→50	42	253/293/364	111	302	10	13	20%	4%	85	+0.2	252/283/360	108	293	11	9	18%	3%	80	-0.2	249/277/349	100	287	10	8	17%	3%	73	-0.4
✕Paulo Orlando 2018 · MLB	32	53→63	43→45	50→55	39	257/291/369	112	317	9	13	22%	4%	85	+0.2	208/252/326	118	265	12	8	26%	4%	61	-1.5	184/226/301	117	233	12	5	27%	3%	44	-1.8
✕Vinny Rottino 2012 · AAA	32	52→57	41→45	50→55	50	250/302/352	103	280	8	16	14%	7%	86	+0.3	235/283/356	121	270	11	17	17%	6%	80	-0.2	210/267/304	95	256	9	8	21%	6%	62	-1.0
✕Amadeo Zazueta 2019 · AAA	33	56→61	41→40	48→50	45	270/299/370	100	297	8	12	13%	4%	88	+0.4	244/287/349	105	264	9	10	11%	4%	79	-0.2	249/288/341	93	264	7	7	9%	4%	77	-0.3
✕Daniel Robertson 2018 · MLB	32	53→58	38→40	49→55	48	250/294/332	82	281	5	15	14%	6%	78	-0.3	232/295/343	111	273	10	15	18%	7%	82	-0.0	216/288/326	110	254	10	16	18%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Wilson Valdez 2011 · MLB	33	52→62	38→40	51→55	47	245/286/325	80	273	5	12	13%	5%	73	-0.6	229/267/304	75	267	4	10	15%	5%	61	-1.5	218/252/271	53	259	1	9	16%	4%	46	-0.9
✕Fernando Rios 2013 · AAA	34	47	41→40	49→50	47	230/283/323	93	269	9	10	18%	6%	72	-0.7	225/277/321	96	263	9	10	17%	6%	69	-0.9	215/256/250	35	242	3	4	12%	4%	43	-0.6
✕Erick Almonte 2011 · AAA	33	51→47	39→40	51→45	45	243/293/327	84	310	6	7	23%	6%	76	-0.4	226/278/314	88	291	7	6	23%	7%	68	-1.0	235/290/336	101	283	10	3	20%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Andrew Romine 2019 · MLB	33	48→55	40	50→55	45	229/286/323	94	288	7	11	22%	6%	73	-0.6	229/276/326	97	282	9	16	21%	5%	70	-0.8	229/273/309	80	283	7	16	21%	5%	62	-0.9
✕Trinidad Robles 2007 · AAA	34	49	42→40	49→45	43	238/291/342	103	297	9	12	23%	6%	79	-0.2	216/270/303	87	266	7	7	21%	6%	63	-1.4	210/265/282	72	256	6	3	20%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Ivan Araujo 2017 · AAA	33	50→60	39→50	48→55	39	242/281/326	84	313	7	16	25%	4%	72	-0.7	246/291/325	79	313	6	12	22%	5%	75	-0.5	265/306/317	52	330	1	11	19%	4%	74	-0.3
✕Ramon Valdez 2010 · AAA	33	50	38→30	49→55	46	237/290/315	78	289	5	14	20%	6%	72	-0.7	238/300/320	82	281	5	21	16%	6%	78	-0.3	250/322/310	61	285	2	26	12%	6%	80	-0.0
✕Shane Robinson 2018 · MLB	33	51→56	37→45	56→55	48	241/288/318	77	275	4	19	14%	6%	72	-0.7	227/276/312	85	255	7	16	14%	6%	67	-1.1	216/267/289	74	239	7	15	13%	6%	56	-0.9
✕Ildelfonso Lara 2008 · AAA	33	51	43→45	49→45	45	249/303/356	107	312	10	6	23%	7%	87	+0.4	230/288/337	107	293	10	7	24%	7%	77	-0.3	215/275/311	96	275	9	4	24%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Joe McEwing 2007 · MLB	34	50→52	40→45	47→50	42	241/273/330	89	284	9	15	19%	4%	69	-0.9	229/265/325	96	287	9	10	23%	4%	65	-1.2	221/253/302	82	282	7	6	24%	3%	53	-1.8

Albert Almora Jr.

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps