Caden Scarborough
P
Hickory Crawdads
+0.8
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'5" / 185 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 2.0 · 2031
ERA4.24
FIP4.24
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.5%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%14.8%
IP75
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2031
OFP—50
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 6 | 2 | 10 | 53 | 13 | 9 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.97 | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 22 | 21 | 88 | 343 | 114 | 21 | 7 | 23.9% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 2.45 | 3.67 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 75 | 28 | 9 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 81 | 28 | 10 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.08 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 87 | 28 | 10 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 3.98 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 107 | 33 | 12 | 25.5% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 3.90 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 113 | 477 | 123 | 37 | 14 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 3.85 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 132 | 39 | 14 | 26.0% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 3.83 | +2.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 135 | 40 | 15 | 26.0% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 3.85 | 3.84 | +2.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 135 | 40 | 15 | 25.9% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 3.86 | +2.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 120 | 509 | 131 | 40 | 15 | 25.8% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 3.89 | 3.91 | +1.9 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 126 | 39 | 15 | 25.6% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 3.97 | +1.8 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 121 | 38 | 15 | 25.4% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.00 | 4.05 | +1.6 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 115 | 37 | 14 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.08 | 4.13 | +1.4 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 108 | 37 | 14 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.23 | +1.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 101 | 36 | 14 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.27 | 4.34 | +1.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 28 | 23 | 98 | 396 | 95 | 35 | 11 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 2.93 | 3.75 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 47 | 200 | 805 | 193 | 71 | 22 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 2.93 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caden Scarborough (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 3.0% | — | 3.98 | 25.0% | 17.0% | 260 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Alex Cook R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.03 | 26.1% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .266 | 3.34 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 53 | -0.69 | 2.94 | 119 | 89 |
| Sam Bragg R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.26 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 3.98 | 15.7% | 8.5% | 203 | +0.72 | 3.26 | 277 | 89 |
| John Russell R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.98 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 4.78 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 60 | +0.80 | 3.92 | 158 | 87 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 87 |
| Parker Curry R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.75 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .341 | 4.60 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +0.85 | 3.75 | 256 | 86 |
| Scott Engler R 2027 · 2.95 FIP | 22 | SW | 2.95 | 26.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.14 | 23.8% | 12.6% | 53 | +1.19 | 2.95 | 170 | 86 |
| Adam Parks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.77 | 21.4% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .356 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 16.7% | 64 | +0.33 | 3.45 | 137 | 86 |
| Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.38 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .292 | 5.40 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.02 | 4.38 | 355 | 85 |
| J.B. Wendelken R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.41 | 23.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.88 | 27.2% | 16.4% | 124 | +0.47 | 3.02 | 393 | 85 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.65 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.49 | 26.5% | 14.2% | 85 | -0.16 | 2.90 | 144 | 85 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2028 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 85 |
| Edward Escoboza R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.89 | 21.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .321 | 5.42 | 14.9% | 9.4% | 36 | +1.53 | 3.44 | 213 | 85 |
| Kevin Gadea R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.11 | 24.8% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 196 | 85 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.03 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 3.52 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.51 | 2.48 | 281 | 85 |
| Mark Ecker R 2027 · 3.23 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.23 | 24.6% | 10.6% | 1.6% | .322 | 4.56 | 16.7% | 4.2% | 118 | +1.33 | 3.23 | 180 | 84 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .295 | 3.40 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.19 | 2.03 | 164 | 84 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2029 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.84 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .344 | 4.99 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.15 | 3.63 | 386 | 84 |
| Darin Gillies R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | .236 | 4.71 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 183 | +0.48 | 4.22 | 295 | 84 |
| David Garner R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 84 |
| Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.6 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +2.0 | $19M | +$15M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +2.0 | $20M | +$12M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $10M | +1.9 | $19M | +$9M |
| Totals | $25M | $108M | +$83M | ||