Caden Scarborough

P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP50OGV rank#39ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	6	2	10	6.97	4.45	24.5%	17.0%	—	K 24.5% · BB 17.0% · FIP 4.22
2025	20	MIX2 levels	22	21	88	2.45	2.26	33.2%	6.1%	—	K 23.9% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.69
2026	21	MIX2 levels	14	14	52	5.16	3.02	24.0%	7.4%	—	K 18.7% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.01
2027PROJ	22	MLBTEX	1	1	4	4.18	4.18	22.8%	8.0%	0.1
2028PROJ51% MLB	23	MLBTEX	10	10	56	4.20	4.13	24.1%	7.7%	0.9
2029PROJ71% MLB	24	MLBTEX	16	16	88	4.10	4.03	24.8%	7.4%	1.6

Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$5M2032Arb-2$8M2033Arb-3$11M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 19, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 80%

CompsJaden Hamm (age 21) · Braxton Bragg (age 23) · Garrett Burhenn (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%22.8%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$61M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$13M	+$12M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+2.2	$13M	+$10M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+2.2	$12M	+$7M
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+2.0	$10M	+$4M
Totals		$27M		$62M	+$46M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	10	53	13	9	1	33%	1.7	24.5%	17.0%	7.5%	1.9%	6.97	4.22	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	10	53	13	9	1	33%	1.7	24.5%	17.0%	7.5%	1.9%	6.97	4.22	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	2	10	53	13	9	1	33%	1.7	24.5%	17.0%	7.5%	1.9%	6.97	4.45	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	88	343	114	21	7	95%	4.0	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	3.0%	2.45	3.69	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	88	343	114	21	7	95%	4.0	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	3.0%	2.45	3.69	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	88	343	114	21	7	95%	4.0	33.2%	6.1%	27.1%	2.0%	2.45	2.26	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	52	217	52	16	4	100%	3.7	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	2.5%	5.16	4.01	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	52	217	52	16	4	100%	3.7	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	2.5%	5.16	4.01	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	52	217	52	16	4	100%	3.7	24.0%	7.4%	16.6%	1.8%	5.16	3.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TEX	1	1	4	17	4	1	0	100%	4.0	22.8%	8.0%	14.8%	2.9%	4.18	4.18	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	110	464	112	36	13	100%	5.5	24.1%	7.7%	16.4%	2.9%	4.08	4.01	+1.8
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	124	526	130	39	15	100%	5.7	24.8%	7.4%	17.4%	2.9%	3.98	3.91	+2.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	23	23	133	562	142	41	16	100%	5.8	25.2%	7.3%	17.9%	2.9%	3.91	3.85	+2.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	133	562	143	41	16	100%	6.0	25.4%	7.3%	18.1%	2.9%	3.87	3.83	+2.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	130	551	140	41	16	100%	5.9	25.4%	7.4%	18.0%	2.9%	3.87	3.87	+2.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	125	528	133	40	16	100%	6.0	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	3.0%	3.92	3.95	+2.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	117	494	124	38	16	100%	5.9	25.1%	7.8%	17.3%	3.2%	4.02	4.08	+1.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	107	451	111	36	15	100%	5.9	24.7%	8.1%	16.6%	3.4%	4.17	4.26	+1.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	96	403	98	34	14	100%	6.0	24.3%	8.4%	15.9%	3.6%	4.35	4.46	+1.0
2037	32	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	84	355	85	31	14	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	3.8%	4.55	4.69	+0.7
2038	33	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	73	308	72	28	13	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.2%	14.1%	4.1%	4.78	4.94	+0.4
2039	34	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	63	265	60	26	12	100%	6.3	22.8%	9.8%	13.1%	4.4%	5.04	5.21	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	56	236	57	18	7	100%	5.6	24.1%	7.7%	16.4%	3.1%	4.20	4.13	+0.9
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	88	372	92	28	11	100%	5.5	24.8%	7.4%	17.4%	3.1%	4.10	4.03	+1.6
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	19	19	109	460	116	34	14	100%	5.7	25.2%	7.3%	17.9%	3.1%	4.03	3.97	+2.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	20	20	117	494	126	36	15	100%	5.8	25.4%	7.3%	18.1%	3.1%	3.99	3.95	+2.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	20	20	118	498	127	37	16	100%	5.9	25.4%	7.4%	18.0%	3.1%	3.99	3.99	+2.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	TEX	19	19	115	486	123	37	16	100%	6.1	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	3.2%	4.04	4.07	+2.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	TEX	18	18	109	460	115	36	16	100%	6.1	25.1%	7.8%	17.3%	3.4%	4.15	4.21	+1.7
2035	30	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	100	422	104	34	15	100%	5.9	24.7%	8.1%	16.6%	3.6%	4.31	4.40	+1.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	91	384	93	32	15	100%	6.1	24.3%	8.4%	15.9%	3.9%	4.50	4.61	+1.0
2037	32	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	80	338	81	30	14	100%	6.2	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	4.1%	4.71	4.85	+0.7
2038	33	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	69	291	68	27	13	100%	5.8	23.4%	9.2%	14.1%	4.4%	4.95	5.11	+0.4
2039	34	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	57	241	55	23	11	100%	5.7	22.8%	9.8%	13.1%	4.7%	5.22	5.39	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		188	188	1109	4684	1157	371	164	100%	5.9	24.7%	7.9%	16.8%	3.5%	4.28	3.94	+19.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	209	67	30	100%	5.9	24.7%	7.9%	16.8%	3.5%	4.28	3.94	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		42	37	151	613	136	54	17	88%	3.6	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	2.7%	3.70	3.85	+19.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	49	200	814	180	72	22	88%	3.6	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	2.7%	3.70	3.85	+2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 48 IPFIP 3.12 → 4.01 (+0.89)K% 24.2% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.770	18.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.58%	—	×1.150	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.53%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 75 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.69 (+1.19)K% 32.3% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.31%	—	×0.740	23.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.46%	—	×1.180	7.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.037	×1.300	2.99%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 13 IPFIP 0.34 → 1.17 (+0.83)K% 38.8% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.78%	—	×0.770	29.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.08%	—	×1.150	4.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.215	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.34 → 1.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rangers · 6 IPFIP 2.96 → 4.21 (+1.25)K% 26.7% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.680	18.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.250	20.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.040	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 4 IPFIP 5.85 → 7.42 (+1.57)K% 21.7% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.740	16.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.39%	—	×1.180	20.52%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.008	×1.300	5.61%

Result: FIP 5.85 → 7.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caden Scarborough (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	3.92	24.8%	17.3%	368	-0.26	—	—	—
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	90
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	87
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	86
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	85
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	85
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	85
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	84
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	84
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	84
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	83
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	83
Javi Rivera R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	22.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.06	2.81	274	83
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	82
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	82
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	82
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	315	82
Luis Ortiz R 2021 · 3.06 FIP	22	SP	3.06	22.2%	8.8%	1.3%	.335	4.54	19.1%	10.1%	409	+1.48	3.06	585	81
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.9	107	24.6%	7.9%	1.24	4.14
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Ian Kennedy ('23)	9.5	146	21.9%	8.0%	1.32	4.16
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*