Caden Scarborough

Caden Scarborough P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.9 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.89

FIP3.89

K%25.9%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%18.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$79M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL5055

CMD4050

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$15M	+$14M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.5	$15M	+$14M
2031	Arb-1	$8M	+2.7	$16M	+$11M
2032	Arb-2	$13M	+2.6	$14M	+$6M
2033	Arb-3	$18M	+2.4	$11M	+$3M
Totals		$43M		$82M	+$59M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	10	53	13	9	1	33%	1.7	24.5%	17.0%	7.5%	1.9%	6.97	4.22	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	10	53	13	9	1	33%	1.7	24.5%	17.0%	7.5%	1.9%	6.97	4.22	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	2	10	53	13	9	1	33%	1.7	24.5%	17.0%	7.5%	1.9%	6.97	4.45	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	88	343	114	21	7	95%	4.0	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	3.0%	2.45	3.69	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	88	343	114	21	7	95%	4.0	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	3.0%	2.45	3.69	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	88	343	114	21	7	95%	4.0	33.2%	6.1%	27.1%	2.0%	2.45	2.26	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	14	14	52	217	52	16	4	100%	3.7	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	2.5%	5.16	4.01	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	14	14	52	217	52	16	4	100%	3.7	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	2.5%	5.16	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	TEX	2	2	4	19	4	1	0	100%	2.0	21.1%	5.3%	15.8%	0.0%	6.75	1.99	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	TEX	12	12	48	198	48	15	4	100%	4.0	24.2%	7.6%	16.7%	2.0%	5.03	3.12	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	8	32	8	2	1	100%	7.6	25.9%	7.5%	18.4%	3.0%	3.89	3.89	+0.1
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	60	249	60	18	5	—	—	24.2%	7.4%	16.8%	2.0%	5.00	4.00	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TEX	26	26	130	551	146	39	16	100%	5.0	26.5%	7.2%	19.3%	2.9%	3.83	3.76	+1.8
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	32	32	169	715	193	49	21	100%	5.3	26.9%	6.9%	20.0%	2.9%	3.75	3.67	+2.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	31	31	175	739	201	50	21	100%	5.6	27.3%	6.7%	20.5%	2.9%	3.67	3.61	+2.7
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	30	30	177	748	206	49	21	100%	5.9	27.5%	6.6%	20.9%	2.9%	3.61	3.56	+2.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	30	30	177	748	207	49	21	100%	5.9	27.7%	6.6%	21.2%	2.9%	3.57	3.54	+2.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	29	29	174	737	204	49	21	100%	6.0	27.7%	6.6%	21.1%	2.9%	3.58	3.58	+2.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	TEX	28	28	169	715	197	49	22	100%	6.0	27.6%	6.8%	20.8%	3.0%	3.63	3.66	+2.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	TEX	27	27	162	683	187	48	22	100%	6.0	27.4%	7.0%	20.3%	3.2%	3.73	3.79	+2.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	TEX	25	25	152	642	173	47	22	100%	6.1	27.0%	7.3%	19.7%	3.4%	3.88	3.97	+1.7
2036	31	MLB MLE	TEX	24	24	142	598	159	46	21	100%	5.9	26.6%	7.7%	18.9%	3.6%	4.06	4.17	+1.2
2037	32	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	131	554	145	45	21	100%	6.0	26.2%	8.1%	18.1%	3.8%	4.26	4.40	+0.8
2038	33	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	120	508	130	43	21	100%	6.0	25.7%	8.5%	17.1%	4.1%	4.49	4.65	+0.3
2039	34	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	110	462	116	42	20	100%	6.1	25.1%	9.0%	16.1%	4.4%	4.75	4.92	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	64	270	72	19	9	100%	4.9	26.5%	7.2%	19.3%	3.2%	3.95	3.88	+0.9
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	23	23	124	524	141	36	16	100%	5.4	26.9%	6.9%	20.0%	3.1%	3.87	3.79	+1.8
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	26	26	145	612	167	41	19	100%	5.6	27.3%	6.7%	20.5%	3.1%	3.79	3.73	+2.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	27	27	157	663	182	44	20	100%	5.8	27.5%	6.6%	20.9%	3.1%	3.73	3.68	+2.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	27	27	162	684	190	45	21	100%	6.0	27.7%	6.6%	21.2%	3.1%	3.69	3.66	+2.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	27	27	162	684	190	45	21	100%	6.0	27.7%	6.6%	21.1%	3.1%	3.70	3.70	+2.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	TEX	26	26	158	667	184	45	22	100%	6.1	27.6%	6.8%	20.8%	3.2%	3.75	3.78	+2.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	TEX	26	26	154	650	178	46	22	100%	5.9	27.4%	7.0%	20.3%	3.4%	3.86	3.92	+2.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	TEX	24	24	144	608	164	45	22	100%	6.0	27.0%	7.3%	19.7%	3.6%	4.02	4.11	+1.6
2036	31	MLB CTX	TEX	22	22	135	570	152	44	22	100%	6.1	26.6%	7.7%	18.9%	3.9%	4.21	4.32	+1.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	TEX	21	21	125	528	138	43	22	100%	6.0	26.2%	8.1%	18.1%	4.1%	4.42	4.56	+0.7
2038	33	MLB CTX	TEX	19	19	114	481	123	41	21	100%	6.0	25.7%	8.5%	17.1%	4.4%	4.66	4.82	+0.3
2039	34	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	99	418	105	38	20	100%	6.2	25.1%	9.0%	16.1%	4.7%	4.93	5.10	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		297	297	1743	7357	1984	531	257	100%	5.9	27.0%	7.2%	19.8%	3.5%	4.00	3.65	+26.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	228	61	29	100%	5.9	27.0%	7.2%	19.8%	3.5%	4.00	3.65	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		42	37	151	613	136	54	17	88%	3.6	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	2.7%	3.70	3.85	+24.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	49	200	814	180	72	22	88%	3.6	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	2.7%	3.70	3.85	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caden Scarborough (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.89	25.9%	7.5%	3.0%	—	3.67	26.9%	20.0%	475	-0.22	—	—	—
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	86
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	85
Gavin Stone R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	22	SP	3.15	27.3%	7.8%	2.5%	.385	3.61	22.7%	14.3%	394	+0.46	2.39	485	84
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	80
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	79
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	79
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	78
Nate Pearson R 2019 · 3.38 FIP	22	SP	3.38	24.8%	7.7%	2.5%	.235	4.72	27.5%	13.9%	76	+1.34	3.08	408	78
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	78
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	78
Javi Rivera R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	22.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.06	2.81	274	78
José De León R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.9%	8.6%	3.0%	.295	3.62	25.9%	17.9%	130	+0.12	3.24	445	77
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	77
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.3%	186	-0.17	2.78	275	77
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	77
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	77
Jordan Johnson R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	21	SP	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.00	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.07	2.93	443	77
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	77
Luis Ortiz R 2021 · 3.06 FIP	22	SP	3.06	22.2%	8.8%	1.3%	.335	4.55	19.0%	10.0%	409	+1.49	3.06	585	76
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.67	20.7%	10.8%	364	+0.72	3.95	567	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.4	149	26.9%	7.2%	1.24	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70