Caden Scarborough

Caden Scarborough P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110100vR 91

ERA3.96

FIP3.96

K%25.5%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%17.7%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5055

CMD4050

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$8M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$13M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$18M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	6	2	10	53	13	9	1	33%	1.7	24.5%	17.0%	7.5%	1.9%	6.97	4.22	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	6	2	10	53	13	9	1	33%	1.7	24.5%	17.0%	7.5%	1.9%	6.97	4.45	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	22	21	88	343	114	21	7	95%	4.0	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	2.9%	2.45	3.63	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	22	21	88	343	114	21	7	95%	4.0	33.2%	6.1%	27.1%	2.0%	2.45	2.26	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	8	8	28	114	31	10	2	100%	3.5	21.9%	10.9%	11.0%	2.6%	3.90	4.08	+0.2
ROS	21	MLB	TEX	12	12	65	274	70	21	8	100%	5.4	25.5%	7.8%	17.7%	3.0%	3.96	3.96	+0.5
ROS	21	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.5%	7.8%	17.7%	3.0%	3.98	3.98	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	TEX	—	—	92	388	101	31	10	—	—	26.0%	8.1%	17.9%	2.6%	3.94	3.99	+1.3
2026 FULL	21	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	25.5%	7.8%	17.7%	3.0%	3.98	3.60	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	TEX	25	25	136	573	149	42	17	100%	5.4	26.1%	7.4%	18.7%	2.9%	3.89	3.82	+2.5
2028	23	MLB	TEX	32	32	175	738	196	53	21	100%	5.5	26.5%	7.1%	19.4%	2.9%	3.81	3.73	+3.4
2029	24	MLB	TEX	31	31	175	739	198	51	21	100%	5.6	26.9%	6.9%	19.9%	2.9%	3.73	3.66	+3.6
2030	25	MLB	TEX	30	30	177	748	203	51	21	100%	5.9	27.1%	6.8%	20.3%	2.9%	3.67	3.62	+3.7
2031	26	MLB	TEX	30	30	177	748	204	51	21	100%	5.9	27.3%	6.8%	20.6%	2.9%	3.62	3.59	+3.8
2032	27	MLB	TEX	29	29	174	737	201	50	21	100%	6.0	27.3%	6.8%	20.5%	2.9%	3.63	3.63	+3.6
2033	28	MLB	TEX	28	28	169	715	194	50	21	100%	6.0	27.2%	7.0%	20.2%	3.0%	3.68	3.72	+3.3
2034	29	MLB	TEX	27	27	162	683	184	49	22	100%	6.0	27.0%	7.2%	19.7%	3.1%	3.78	3.85	+2.9
2035	30	MLB	TEX	25	25	152	642	171	48	21	100%	6.1	26.6%	7.5%	19.1%	3.4%	3.93	4.02	+2.5
2036	31	MLB	TEX	24	24	142	598	157	47	21	100%	5.9	26.2%	7.9%	18.3%	3.6%	4.11	4.23	+1.9
2037	32	MLB	TEX	22	22	131	554	143	46	21	100%	6.0	25.8%	8.3%	17.5%	3.8%	4.32	4.45	+1.5
2038	33	MLB	TEX	20	20	120	508	128	44	21	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.7%	16.5%	4.1%	4.55	4.70	+1.0
2039	34	MLB	TEX	18	18	110	462	114	43	20	100%	6.1	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	4.4%	4.81	4.98	+0.5
2027	22	MLB	TEX	12	12	67	283	74	21	8	100%	5.6	26.1%	7.4%	18.7%	3.0%	3.91	3.84	+0.7
2028	23	MLB	TEX	23	23	128	540	143	38	16	100%	5.6	26.5%	7.1%	19.4%	2.9%	3.83	3.75	+2.5
2029	24	MLB	TEX	26	26	145	612	164	42	18	100%	5.6	26.9%	6.9%	19.9%	2.9%	3.75	3.68	+2.9
2030	25	MLB	TEX	27	27	157	663	180	45	19	100%	5.8	27.1%	6.8%	20.3%	2.9%	3.69	3.64	+3.2
2031	26	MLB	TEX	27	27	162	684	187	46	20	100%	6.0	27.3%	6.8%	20.6%	2.9%	3.64	3.61	+3.4
2032	27	MLB	TEX	27	27	162	684	187	47	20	100%	6.0	27.3%	6.8%	20.5%	2.9%	3.65	3.65	+3.3
2033	28	MLB	TEX	26	26	158	667	181	47	20	100%	6.1	27.2%	7.0%	20.2%	3.0%	3.70	3.74	+3.1
2034	29	MLB	TEX	26	26	154	650	175	47	21	100%	5.9	27.0%	7.2%	19.7%	3.2%	3.80	3.87	+2.8
2035	30	MLB	TEX	24	24	144	608	162	46	21	100%	6.0	26.6%	7.5%	19.1%	3.4%	3.95	4.04	+2.3
2036	31	MLB	TEX	22	22	135	570	149	45	21	100%	6.1	26.2%	7.9%	18.3%	3.6%	4.13	4.25	+1.8
2037	32	MLB	TEX	21	21	125	528	136	44	20	100%	6.0	25.8%	8.3%	17.5%	3.9%	4.35	4.48	+1.4
2038	33	MLB	TEX	19	19	114	481	122	42	20	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.7%	16.5%	4.2%	4.58	4.73	+0.9
2039	34	MLB	TEX	16	16	99	418	103	39	19	100%	6.2	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	4.5%	4.84	5.01	+0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			299	299	1749	7386	1963	548	242	100%	5.9	26.6%	7.4%	19.2%	3.3%	3.94	3.59	+36.9
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	224	63	28	100%	5.9	26.6%	7.4%	19.2%	3.3%	3.94	3.59	+4.2
Career	—			36	31	126	510	120	48	14	86%	3.5	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	2.7%	3.14	3.79	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—			57	49	200	810	190	76	22	86%	3.5	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	2.7%	3.14	3.79	+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caden Scarborough (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.96	25.5%	7.8%	3.0%	—	3.73	26.5%	19.4%	486	-0.23	—	—	—
Jaden Hamm R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP	4.01	23.5%	8.9%	3.2%	.273	4.70	17.1%	7.3%	83	+0.69	4.01	182	88
Kyle Brnovich R 2028 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	25.1%	7.5%	3.2%	.256	5.06	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.37	3.69	333	86
Cade Horton R 2026 · 3.09 FIP	21	SP	3.09	26.0%	8.8%	1.9%	.273	3.57	22.0%	13.7%	181	+0.48	3.09	270	85
Braxton Bragg R 2028 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP	3.78	22.3%	6.4%	3.2%	.325	2.47	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.31	2.47	155	84
Gavin Stone R 2027 · 3.22 FIP	22	SP	3.22	27.3%	7.8%	2.6%	.385	3.71	23.0%	14.2%	394	+0.49	2.39	485	83
Garrett Burhenn R 2027 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	21.1%	7.7%	3.5%	.333	4.44	16.9%	8.8%	341	+0.25	4.19	433	82
Bryce Mayer R 2028 · 3.30 FIP	23	SP-	3.30	23.4%	8.3%	2.1%	.304	4.80	27.2%	12.2%	52	+1.50	3.30	140	81
Brandon Bailey R 2027 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP-	3.37	24.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.290	4.39	21.2%	9.6%	215	+1.02	3.37	306	81
Cody Morris R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	21.6%	8.1%	3.1%	.362	2.86	31.1%	20.9%	96	-1.14	2.26	256	80
Javi Rivera R 2027 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	22.3%	7.9%	3.0%	.259	3.71	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.17	2.72	229	79
Brett Kerry R 2028 · 4.48 FIP	23	SP-	4.48	21.8%	7.5%	4.1%	.343	5.89	17.7%	9.8%	394	+1.41	4.48	578	79
Brandon Young R 2027 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.5%	12.3%	2.7%	.297	3.46	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.11	420	78
Nate Pearson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	22	SP	3.49	24.8%	7.7%	2.8%	.235	4.69	27.5%	13.9%	76	+1.20	3.45	387	78
Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	78
Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	21.7%	8.4%	3.5%	.329	3.55	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.68	2.49	298	78
Sam Benschoter R 2029 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	26.3%	9.2%	3.5%	.344	5.03	18.9%	8.4%	306	+1.07	3.58	426	77
Matt Tabor R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP	3.57	19.8%	5.0%	2.8%	.287	5.84	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.27	3.57	203	77
Trey Yesavage R 2027 · 3.22 FIP	22	SP	3.22	31.5%	11.7%	2.4%	.269	4.05	22.2%	9.7%	75	+0.83	3.22	187	77
Mike Vasil R 2027 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	21.9%	10.5%	2.0%	.264	4.60	19.1%	9.4%	359	+0.89	3.71	429	77
Khal Stephen R 2027 · 3.05 FIP	22	SP	3.05	20.6%	5.7%	1.8%	.284	4.72	16.9%	6.1%	55	+1.67	3.05	158	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	150	26.5%	7.4%	1.24	3.92
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89