Gage Jump

P Athletics

Age 24 LHP 6'0" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	26	24	113	3.28	2.46	28.4%	7.2%	—	K 22.6% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.18
2026	23	MIX2 levels	29	29	137	5.20	3.63	27.1%	10.6%	2.9	K 25.8% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.73
2027PROJ	24	MLBOAK	14	14	76	4.27	4.07	26.1%	9.8%	1.2
2028PROJ91% MLB	25	MLBOAK	15	15	85	4.08	3.97	26.1%	9.3%	1.4
2029PROJ93% MLB	26	MLBOAK	14	14	87	4.01	3.96	26.0%	9.2%	1.4

Last 2 seasons WAR 2.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.727First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$5M2032Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo75

K%64

xwOBA vs35

Form8.07 ERA (proj 4.27) · K 23.5% (proj 26.1%) · BB 12.4% (proj 9.8%) ▼ last 90d · 36 IP through Oct 27

CompsConnelly Early (age 22) · Shane McClanahan (age 24) · Tony Cingrani (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.27

FIP4.07

K%26.1%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%16.3%

Proj IP86

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$43M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p6424.7%

xwOBA vs

p350.329

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.727 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.3	$8M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$11M		$48M	+$37M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	113	461	131	33	7	92%	4.3	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	1.8%	3.28	3.18	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	113	461	131	33	7	92%	4.3	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	1.8%	3.28	3.18	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	113	461	131	33	7	92%	4.3	28.4%	7.2%	21.3%	1.5%	3.28	2.46	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	137	606	164	64	16	100%	4.7	25.8%	10.2%	15.5%	2.8%	5.20	3.73	+2.7
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	137	606	164	64	16	100%	4.7	25.8%	10.2%	15.5%	2.8%	5.20	3.73	+2.7
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	137	606	164	64	16	100%	4.7	27.1%	10.6%	16.5%	2.6%	5.20	3.63	+2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	20	99	437	108	44	12	100%	4.9	24.7%	10.1%	14.6%	2.7%	5.47	3.83	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	OAK	14	14	76	321	84	32	9	100%	5.4	26.1%	9.8%	16.3%	2.8%	4.27	4.07	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	93	394	103	37	11	100%	5.8	26.1%	9.3%	16.8%	2.8%	4.12	4.01	+1.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	93	394	103	36	11	100%	5.8	26.0%	9.2%	16.8%	2.8%	4.05	4.00	+1.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	89	376	97	34	11	100%	5.9	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	2.9%	4.06	4.05	+1.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	85	358	92	33	11	100%	6.1	25.6%	9.3%	16.3%	3.0%	4.11	4.14	+1.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	75	316	79	30	10	100%	6.2	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	3.1%	4.22	4.30	+1.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	62	263	64	26	9	100%	6.2	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.3%	4.39	4.51	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	48	205	48	21	7	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.2%	13.4%	3.6%	4.60	4.74	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	OAK	6	6	35	148	34	16	6	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.8%	4.84	4.99	+0.2
2036	33	MLB MLE	OAK	4	4	23	99	22	11	4	100%	5.8	21.9%	11.0%	10.9%	4.1%	5.10	5.27	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	85	359	94	33	10	100%	5.7	26.1%	9.3%	16.8%	2.7%	4.08	3.97	+1.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	87	367	96	34	10	100%	6.2	26.0%	9.2%	16.8%	2.8%	4.01	3.96	+1.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	84	355	91	33	10	100%	6.0	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	2.8%	4.02	4.01	+1.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	81	342	87	32	10	100%	5.8	25.6%	9.3%	16.3%	2.9%	4.07	4.10	+1.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	71	300	75	28	9	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	3.1%	4.18	4.26	+0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	59	249	60	24	8	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.3%	4.34	4.46	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	46	194	46	20	7	100%	5.8	23.5%	10.2%	13.4%	3.5%	4.55	4.69	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	33	139	32	15	5	100%	5.5	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.7%	4.79	4.94	+0.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	OAK	4	4	22	93	20	10	4	100%	5.5	21.9%	11.0%	10.9%	4.0%	5.04	5.21	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	115	667	2836	709	273	85	100%	5.8	25.0%	9.6%	15.4%	3.0%	4.40	3.85	+12.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	851	213	82	25	100%	5.8	25.0%	9.6%	15.4%	3.0%	4.40	3.85	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		55	53	249	1067	260	99	25	96%	4.5	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	2.3%	4.33	3.49	+9.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	43	200	856	209	79	20	96%	4.5	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	2.3%	4.33	3.49	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 38 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.47 (+0.37)K% 33.1% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.14%	—	×0.860	28.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.83%	—	×0.900	10.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.60%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 82 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.63 (+0.66)K% 25.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.29%	—	×0.810	20.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.24%	—	×1.100	9.06%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷1.043	×1.200	2.03%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 31 IPFIP 0.94 → 1.90 (+0.96)K% 37.2% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.19%	—	×0.770	28.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.13%	—	×1.150	4.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷0.921	×1.250	1.12%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 0.94 → 1.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Jump (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.02	26.0%	16.7%	276	-0.05	—	—	—
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	80
Shane McClanahan L 2021 · 3.23 FIP	24	SP	3.23	27.3%	7.2%	2.8%	.326	3.31	28.5%	21.5%	281	+0.08	2.95	643	78
Tony Cingrani L 2013 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	28.6%	10.0%	3.1%	.238	4.26	21.8%	9.1%	184	+0.61	1.68	354	78
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	77
Parker Messick L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	23.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.302	3.09	25.2%	18.3%	325	-0.27	2.97	580	76
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	76
Brandyn Garcia L 2024 · 3.27 FIP	24	SP	3.27	21.2%	10.7%	1.1%	.289	3.27	26.9%	17.0%	122	+0.00	2.44	238	75
Ken Waldichuk L 2022 · 3.51 FIP	24	SP	3.51	27.7%	8.9%	2.9%	.292	5.21	21.0%	9.0%	192	+1.70	3.51	432	75
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	75
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	74
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	74
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	74
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	73
Robert Gasser L 2023 · 3.38 FIP	24	SP	3.38	24.1%	7.6%	2.5%	.305	3.48	22.6%	16.0%	208	+0.10	2.38	494	73
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.28	18.8%	9.8%	354	+0.12	4.03	620	73
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	73
Reid Detmers L 2023 · 3.63 FIP	24	SP	3.63	26.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.306	3.68	28.0%	20.5%	414	+0.05	2.77	766	72
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	72
Tyson Guerrero L 2023 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	23.9%	9.8%	3.5%	.279	4.66	19.5%	7.7%	142	+0.40	4.26	250	72
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	72	25.1%	9.7%	1.18	4.41
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Doug Bair ('76-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	76	25.2%*	10.4%*	1.22*	4.12*
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Trevor May ('23)	2.3	50	26.8%	8.5%	1.20	4.24