Gage Jump
P
Las Vegas Aviators
+1.7
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 2.3 · 2029
ERA4.09
FIP4.09
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%14.0%
IP113
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.3peak
2029
OFP—50
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 26 | 24 | 113 | 461 | 131 | 33 | 7 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | 3.28 | 3.19 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 3 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 16 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.61 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | 20 | 20 | 113 | 476 | 108 | 41 | 12 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.09 | +1.5 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 123 | 522 | 124 | 46 | 12 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 3.97 | 3.75 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 132 | 555 | 128 | 46 | 15 | 23.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.05 | 4.02 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 145 | 613 | 144 | 50 | 16 | 23.4% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.01 | 3.98 | +2.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 152 | 642 | 151 | 52 | 17 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 3.97 | +2.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 155 | 654 | 154 | 53 | 17 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 3.98 | +2.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 155 | 653 | 153 | 53 | 18 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 4.01 | +2.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 151 | 638 | 149 | 53 | 18 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.06 | +2.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 147 | 619 | 144 | 52 | 17 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.08 | 4.12 | +2.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 142 | 598 | 137 | 51 | 17 | 22.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.19 | +1.8 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 130 | 49 | 17 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.28 | +1.6 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 122 | 48 | 17 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 115 | 47 | 16 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 106 | 45 | 16 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 97 | 43 | 15 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 27 | 123 | 507 | 120 | 42 | 8 | 23.7% | 8.2% | 1.6% | 3.22 | 3.04 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 44 | 200 | 824 | 195 | 68 | 13 | 23.7% | 8.2% | 1.6% | 3.22 | 3.04 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gage Jump (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.09 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.6% | — | 3.99 | 23.4% | 15.2% | 429 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.45 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .261 | 5.90 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.45 | 3.45 | 522 | 93 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.52 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 216 | +1.13 | 3.39 | 448 | 92 |
| Nick Zwack L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.15 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .299 | 5.76 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.61 | 3.15 | 248 | 92 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 91 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 90 |
| Ben Shields L 2028 · 3.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.23 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 3.05 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.18 | 3.05 | 147 | 89 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 87 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 87 |
| Andrew Abbott L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.36 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.86 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 468 | +0.50 | 3.36 | 606 | 86 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 86 |
| Jackson Kent L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 86 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 85 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 85 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.34 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.04 | 2.02 | 280 | 85 |
| Kevin Smith L 2025 · 3.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.25 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 1.4% | .337 | 5.79 | 21.5% | 5.1% | 131 | +2.54 | 3.25 | 248 | 85 |
| Steven Matz L 2027 · 3.32 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.32 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .283 | 4.00 | 22.2% | 15.5% | 366 | +0.68 | 3.11 | 1,167 | 85 |
| David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 85 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 84 |
| Tyler Thomas L 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.37 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 1.8% | .255 | 3.52 | 24.2% | 14.6% | 54 | +0.15 | 2.75 | 279 | 84 |
| Ryan Smith L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.53 | 22.5% | 6.9% | 4.5% | .293 | 5.49 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 104 | +0.96 | 4.53 | 233 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2033
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.9 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.2 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.3 | $20M | +$19M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $5M | +2.3 | $21M | +$16M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $8M | +2.3 | $21M | +$13M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +2.1 | $20M | +$9M |
| Totals | $27M | $117M | +$90M | ||