Gage Jump — OGILVIE

Gage Jump P Athletics

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.0 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION87 act + 47 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8291vR 101

ERA3.46

FIP3.46

K%24.7%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%16.2%

ROS IP47

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD4550

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p5723.5%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+1.3	$10M	+$10M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$10M	+1.9	$12M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$17M	+1.9	$11M	+$0.1M
2031	Arb-3	$24M	+1.8	$10M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$29M		$63M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	26	24	113	461	131	33	7	92%	4.3	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	1.8%	3.28	3.16	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	26	24	113	461	131	33	7	92%	4.3	28.4%	7.2%	21.3%	1.5%	3.28	2.46	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	Athletics	18	18	87	373	104	34	8	100%	4.8	26.1%	9.4%	16.7%	2.3%	3.95	3.32	+1.8
ROS	23	MLB	OAK	9	9	47	199	49	17	5	100%	5.2	24.7%	8.5%	16.2%	2.5%	3.46	3.46	+0.6
ROS	23	MLB	OAK	9	9	47	198	49	17	5	100%	5.2	24.7%	8.5%	16.2%	2.4%	3.43	3.43	+0.6
2026 TOT	23	MLB	OAK	—	—	134	572	153	51	13	—	—	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	2.3%	3.77	3.37	+3.2
2026 FULL	23	MLB	OAK	—	—	96	404	153	51	13	—	—	37.9%	12.6%	25.3%	3.2%	5.26	3.24	+2.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	OAK	22	22	124	524	125	39	13	100%	5.6	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.4%	3.78	3.74	+2.4
2028	25	MLB	OAK	25	25	144	607	146	44	15	100%	5.8	24.1%	7.3%	16.8%	2.5%	3.76	3.72	+2.8
2029	26	MLB	OAK	26	26	156	658	159	48	16	100%	6.0	24.2%	7.3%	16.9%	2.5%	3.75	3.72	+3.1
2030	27	MLB	OAK	26	26	158	665	161	49	17	100%	6.1	24.1%	7.4%	16.8%	2.6%	3.77	3.77	+3.0
2031	28	MLB	OAK	26	26	158	665	160	50	18	100%	6.1	24.0%	7.5%	16.5%	2.7%	3.82	3.86	+2.8
2032	29	MLB	OAK	25	25	150	635	151	49	18	100%	6.0	23.8%	7.7%	16.0%	2.8%	3.92	3.99	+2.5
2033	30	MLB	OAK	24	24	141	597	140	48	18	100%	5.9	23.4%	8.0%	15.4%	3.0%	4.07	4.17	+2.0
2034	31	MLB	OAK	22	22	132	557	128	47	18	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	3.2%	4.25	4.37	+1.6
2035	32	MLB	OAK	20	20	122	515	116	45	18	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	3.5%	4.46	4.59	+1.2
2036	33	MLB	OAK	19	19	112	472	104	44	18	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.2%	12.8%	3.8%	4.69	4.84	+0.7
2027	24	MLB	OAK	21	21	118	498	119	37	12	100%	5.6	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.4%	3.75	3.71	+2.3
2028	25	MLB	OAK	23	23	137	578	139	42	14	100%	6.0	24.1%	7.3%	16.8%	2.4%	3.73	3.69	+2.7
2029	26	MLB	OAK	25	25	148	625	151	45	15	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.3%	16.9%	2.4%	3.72	3.69	+3.0
2030	27	MLB	OAK	25	25	150	633	153	47	16	100%	6.0	24.1%	7.4%	16.8%	2.5%	3.74	3.74	+2.9
2031	28	MLB	OAK	25	25	150	633	152	48	16	100%	6.0	24.0%	7.5%	16.5%	2.6%	3.79	3.83	+2.8
2032	29	MLB	OAK	24	24	143	604	144	47	17	100%	6.0	23.8%	7.7%	16.0%	2.7%	3.89	3.96	+2.4
2033	30	MLB	OAK	22	22	134	566	133	45	17	100%	6.1	23.4%	8.0%	15.4%	2.9%	4.03	4.13	+2.0
2034	31	MLB	OAK	21	21	125	528	122	44	17	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	3.2%	4.21	4.33	+1.6
2035	32	MLB	OAK	19	19	116	490	111	43	17	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	3.4%	4.42	4.55	+1.2
2036	33	MLB	OAK	18	18	106	448	99	41	16	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.2%	12.8%	3.7%	4.64	4.79	+0.8
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			242	242	1422	6004	1419	470	165	100%	5.9	23.6%	7.8%	15.8%	2.7%	3.93	3.60	+29.9
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	200	66	23	100%	5.9	23.6%	7.8%	15.8%	2.7%	3.93	3.60	+4.2
Career	—			44	42	199	834	202	72	17	95%	4.5	24.2%	8.6%	15.6%	2.0%	3.57	3.23	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—			44	42	200	837	202	72	17	95%	4.5	24.2%	8.6%	15.6%	2.0%	3.57	3.23	+5.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Jump (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.95	23.3%	8.1%	2.6%	—	3.73	24.1%	16.8%	424	-0.22	—	—	—
Nick Zwack L 2026 · 3.10 FIP	23	SP	3.10	23.9%	9.3%	1.5%	.299	5.99	18.2%	8.4%	143	+2.89	3.10	271	85
Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP	23	SP-	3.53	24.1%	7.9%	2.7%	.261	6.22	16.8%	6.5%	354	+2.69	3.53	522	85
Shane McClanahan L 2025 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP	3.35	23.3%	10.4%	1.6%	.315	3.12	29.0%	22.6%	290	-0.23	3.00	611	83
Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	24.9%	10.8%	3.4%	.298	5.19	18.7%	8.0%	358	+0.95	4.24	501	82
Payton Tolle L 2026 · 3.08 FIP	23	SP	3.08	25.8%	7.3%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	207	82
Tyler Thomas L 2025 · 3.25 FIP	22	SP	3.25	19.3%	7.3%	1.6%	.255	3.43	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.18	2.75	279	81
Dalton Pence L 2026 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	22.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	153	81
A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.86	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.18	3.64	203	81
Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.1%	9.9%	2.7%	.283	3.84	18.1%	10.2%	325	-0.33	3.66	437	81
Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	20.3%	10.4%	2.8%	.301	6.14	17.6%	4.8%	71	+1.88	4.26	176	80
Brandyn Garcia L 2027 · 3.39 FIP	24	SP	3.39	21.2%	10.7%	1.3%	.289	3.76	25.6%	13.5%	95	+0.37	2.37	211	80
Kevin Smith L 2025 · 3.19 FIP	22	SP	3.19	21.2%	9.2%	1.3%	.337	5.79	21.5%	5.1%	131	+2.60	3.19	248	80
Parker Messick L 2026 · 3.30 FIP	23	SP	3.30	23.8%	9.1%	1.9%	.302	3.25	24.8%	16.6%	250	-0.05	3.21	506	79
Jake Bennett L 2025 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP	3.54	21.2%	7.2%	2.4%	.339	3.10	19.0%	12.8%	156	-0.44	2.79	219	79
Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.0%	10.7%	2.5%	.297	6.60	15.1%	4.8%	51	+2.54	4.06	248	79
Taylor Varnell L 2026 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	4.07	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.18	2.89	248	79
Andrew Abbott L 2026 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP	3.37	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.94	23.8%	15.7%	468	+0.57	3.37	691	78
Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP	24	SP-	4.25	21.0%	9.9%	3.0%	.333	4.75	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.50	3.42	205	78
Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP	4.60	20.6%	10.9%	3.4%	.269	5.90	20.7%	8.4%	87	+1.30	4.60	308	78
David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.6%	8.8%	1.8%	.303	5.56	16.0%	8.2%	78	+2.01	3.08	517	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11	136	23.6%	7.9%	1.10	4.00
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73