Gage Jump — OGILVIE

Gage Jump P Athletics

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION137 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA3.62

FIP3.62

K%24.8%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%15.5%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$37M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5555

CTRL5055

CMD4550

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p6424.7%

xwOBA vs

p350.329

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.6M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$13M	+$12M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$13M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+1.9	$12M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$11M	+1.8	$11M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$16M	+1.7	$9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$20M		$58M	+$35M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	113	461	131	33	7	92%	4.3	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	1.8%	3.28	3.18	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	113	461	131	33	7	92%	4.3	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	1.8%	3.28	3.18	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	113	461	131	33	7	92%	4.3	28.4%	7.2%	21.3%	1.5%	3.28	2.46	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	20	99	437	108	44	12	100%	4.9	24.7%	10.1%	14.6%	2.7%	5.47	3.83	+1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Athletics	29	29	137	606	164	64	16	100%	4.7	25.5%	10.2%	15.3%	2.8%	5.20	3.76	+1.9
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Athletics	29	29	137	606	164	64	16	100%	4.7	25.5%	10.2%	15.3%	2.8%	5.20	3.76	+1.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	OAK	9	9	38	169	56	20	4	100%	4.2	33.1%	11.8%	21.3%	2.4%	4.50	3.10	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	OAK	20	20	99	437	108	44	12	100%	4.9	24.7%	10.1%	14.6%	2.7%	5.47	3.80	+1.3
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	OAK	20	20	99	437	108	44	12	100%	4.9	24.7%	10.1%	14.6%	2.7%	5.47	3.80	+1.3
ROS	23	MLB MLE	OAK	2	2	9	38	9	4	1	100%	4.5	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	2.6%	3.62	3.62	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	OAK	2	2	9	38	9	4	1	100%	4.5	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	2.6%	3.59	3.59	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	146	644	173	68	17	—	—	26.9%	10.5%	16.4%	2.6%	5.10	3.75	+2.0
FULL	23	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	108	455	173	68	17	—	—	38.1%	14.9%	23.3%	3.7%	6.90	3.81	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	29	29	163	689	169	60	18	100%	5.6	24.6%	8.7%	15.8%	2.7%	4.02	3.97	+1.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	30	30	175	739	183	62	20	100%	5.8	24.7%	8.4%	16.3%	2.7%	3.98	3.93	+2.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	29	29	175	739	183	62	20	100%	6.0	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	2.7%	3.95	3.92	+2.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	29	29	172	728	180	61	20	100%	5.9	24.7%	8.4%	16.3%	2.8%	3.97	3.97	+1.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	29	29	172	728	179	62	21	100%	5.9	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	2.9%	4.02	4.05	+1.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	165	695	169	61	21	100%	6.1	24.4%	8.8%	15.6%	3.0%	4.12	4.19	+1.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	155	653	157	59	21	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	3.2%	4.27	4.36	+1.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	OAK	24	24	144	609	144	58	21	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	3.4%	4.45	4.57	+0.6
2035	32	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	134	564	131	56	21	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.8%	13.3%	3.7%	4.66	4.79	+0.2
2036	33	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	122	517	117	53	20	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	4.0%	4.89	5.04	-0.2
2037	34	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	112	471	104	51	20	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.8%	11.3%	4.3%	5.15	5.32	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	28	28	155	654	161	57	17	100%	5.5	24.6%	8.7%	15.8%	2.6%	3.98	3.93	+1.7
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	28	28	166	701	173	59	18	100%	5.9	24.7%	8.4%	16.3%	2.6%	3.94	3.89	+1.9
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	28	28	166	701	174	59	18	100%	5.9	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	2.6%	3.91	3.88	+1.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	27	27	164	692	171	58	19	100%	6.1	24.7%	8.4%	16.3%	2.7%	3.93	3.93	+1.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	27	27	164	692	170	59	19	100%	6.1	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	2.8%	3.98	4.01	+1.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	26	26	156	659	160	58	19	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.8%	15.6%	2.9%	4.08	4.15	+1.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	24	24	147	621	149	56	19	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	3.1%	4.23	4.32	+0.9
2034	31	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	137	578	137	55	19	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	3.3%	4.40	4.52	+0.5
2035	32	MLB CTX	OAK	21	21	127	536	124	53	19	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.8%	13.3%	3.6%	4.61	4.74	+0.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	116	490	111	50	19	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	3.9%	4.84	4.99	-0.2
2037	34	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	101	426	94	46	18	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.8%	11.3%	4.1%	5.09	5.26	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		291	291	1707	7229	1743	659	219	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	3.0%	4.28	3.88	+20.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	204	77	26	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	3.0%	4.28	3.88	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		55	53	249	1067	259	99	25	96%	4.5	24.3%	9.2%	15.0%	2.3%	4.33	3.51	+13.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	43	200	856	208	79	20	96%	4.5	24.3%	9.2%	15.0%	2.3%	4.33	3.51	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Jump (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.96	23.3%	8.1%	2.6%	—	3.94	24.7%	16.2%	513	-0.02	—	—	—
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	86
Shane McClanahan L 2019 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	23.3%	10.4%	1.7%	.315	3.07	29.0%	22.6%	290	-0.29	2.95	643	85
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.6%	143	+2.57	3.16	289	85
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	83
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	82
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	82
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	81
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	81
Andrew Abbott L 2022 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.92	23.6%	15.7%	468	+0.56	3.36	740	80
Kevin Smith L 2019 · 3.26 FIP	22	SP	3.26	21.2%	9.2%	1.4%	.337	5.78	21.5%	5.1%	131	+2.52	3.26	248	80
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	80
Tyler Thomas L 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	19.3%	7.3%	1.8%	.255	3.55	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.16	2.67	279	79
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	79
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	79
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	78
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	78
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	78
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	78
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.9	149	24.0%	9.0%	1.20	4.24
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73