Sean Paul Liñan

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#135ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	19	5	70	4.37	2.86	31.3%	8.8%	—	K 21.5% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.07
2025	20	MIX3 levels	19	15	77	3.03	2.48	33.0%	10.3%	—	K 25.0% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.33
2026	21	MIX2 levels	23	21	91	5.81	4.28	25.6%	11.1%	—	K 20.2% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.28
2027PROJ	22	MLBNYY	—	—	0	4.92	4.92	21.5%	12.1%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBNYY	9	9	52	4.81	4.70	22.7%	10.6%	0.5
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBNYY	14	14	82	4.62	4.51	23.4%	9.7%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 78%

CompsJake Lyons (age 22) · Nick Garcia (age 22) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%21.5%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$38M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$9M	+$7M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$8M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+1.3	$7M	+$3M
Totals		$18M		$40M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	15	0	26	99	27	11	0	0%	1.7	18.5%	13.9%	4.7%	0.0%	2.08	3.29	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	15	0	26	99	27	11	0	0%	1.7	27.3%	11.1%	16.2%	0.0%	2.08	2.29	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	12	6	36	165	43	11	3	50%	3.0	17.7%	8.3%	9.4%	2.5%	4.54	4.05	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	12	6	36	165	43	11	3	50%	3.0	26.1%	6.7%	19.4%	1.8%	4.54	2.71	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	5	70	297	93	26	7	26%	3.7	21.5%	11.4%	10.1%	2.4%	4.37	4.07	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	5	70	297	93	26	7	26%	3.7	21.5%	11.4%	10.1%	2.4%	4.37	4.07	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	5	70	297	93	26	7	26%	3.7	31.3%	8.8%	22.6%	2.4%	4.37	2.86	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	15	77	321	106	33	5	79%	4.1	25.0%	10.7%	14.4%	1.8%	3.03	3.33	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	15	77	321	106	33	5	79%	4.1	25.0%	10.7%	14.4%	1.8%	3.03	3.33	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	15	77	321	106	33	5	79%	4.1	33.0%	10.3%	22.7%	1.6%	3.03	2.48	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	91	414	106	46	14	91%	4.0	20.2%	13.3%	7.0%	4.0%	5.81	5.28	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	91	414	106	46	14	91%	4.0	20.2%	13.3%	7.0%	4.0%	5.81	5.28	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	91	414	106	46	14	91%	4.0	25.6%	11.1%	14.5%	3.4%	5.81	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	12.1%	9.4%	3.1%	4.92	4.92	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	105	443	101	47	14	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	3.1%	4.70	4.59	+1.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	117	495	116	48	15	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.7%	13.8%	3.0%	4.51	4.40	+1.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	125	529	126	48	16	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.1%	14.7%	3.0%	4.37	4.28	+1.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	124	526	126	47	16	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.0%	14.9%	3.0%	4.30	4.26	+1.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	122	513	123	47	16	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	3.1%	4.30	4.30	+1.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	116	490	117	45	16	100%	6.1	23.8%	9.2%	14.6%	3.2%	4.35	4.38	+1.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	108	457	108	43	15	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	3.3%	4.45	4.51	+1.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	98	415	96	41	15	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.8%	13.5%	3.5%	4.59	4.69	+0.8
2036	31	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	88	372	85	38	14	100%	5.9	22.9%	10.1%	12.7%	3.8%	4.77	4.89	+0.5
2037	32	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	78	328	74	35	13	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.5%	11.9%	4.0%	4.98	5.12	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	52	220	50	23	7	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	3.3%	4.81	4.70	+0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	82	346	81	33	11	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.7%	13.8%	3.2%	4.62	4.51	+1.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	102	431	103	39	14	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.1%	14.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.39	+1.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	109	460	110	42	15	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.0%	14.9%	3.2%	4.41	4.37	+1.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	110	464	111	42	15	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	3.3%	4.41	4.41	+1.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	107	452	108	42	15	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.2%	14.6%	3.4%	4.47	4.50	+1.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	101	426	101	40	15	100%	5.9	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	3.5%	4.57	4.63	+1.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	92	388	90	38	15	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.8%	13.5%	3.8%	4.72	4.82	+0.8
2036	31	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	84	355	81	36	14	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.1%	12.7%	4.0%	4.91	5.03	+0.5
2037	32	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	74	312	70	33	13	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.5%	11.9%	4.3%	5.13	5.27	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		153	153	911	3847	903	368	135	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.6%	13.9%	3.5%	4.62	4.25	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	198	81	30	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.6%	13.9%	3.5%	4.62	4.25	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		88	47	300	1296	276	151	34	53%	3.4	21.3%	11.6%	9.6%	2.6%	4.29	4.21	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	31	200	863	184	100	23	53%	3.4	21.3%	11.6%	9.6%	2.6%	4.29	4.21	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 83 IPFIP 4.11 → 5.28 (+1.17)K% 26.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.27%	—	×0.770	20.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.53%	—	×1.150	13.26%
HR / BF /BF	3.22%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.02%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.11 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 8 IPFIP 5.06 → 6.00 (+0.94)K% 19.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.51%	—	×0.810	15.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.100	8.05%
HR / BF /BF	4.88%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.06 → 6.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 40 IPFIP 3.08 → 4.04 (+0.96)K% 25.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.88%	—	×0.770	19.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.41%	—	×1.150	10.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷0.967	×1.250	2.28%

Result: FIP 3.08 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 30 IPFIP 0.97 → 2.26 (+1.29)K% 44.2% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.25%	—	×0.740	32.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.85%	—	×1.180	10.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.055	×1.300	1.09%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 0.97 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 7 IPFIP 4.21 → 4.57 (+0.36)K% 31.6% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.58%	—	×0.860	27.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.42%	—	×0.900	16.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.956	×1.100	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 4.21 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 57 IPFIP 2.98 → 4.07 (+1.09)K% 29.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.03%	—	×0.740	21.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.180	11.42%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.072	×1.300	2.45%

Result: FIP 2.98 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Dodgers · 13 IPFIP 2.24 → 4.62 (+2.38)K% 42.9% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.86%	—	×0.680	29.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.08%	—	×1.250	5.10%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷0.942	×1.400	6.07%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.24 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Dodgers · 36 IPFIP 2.74 → 4.05 (+1.31)K% 26.1% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.06%	—	×0.680	17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.250	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷1.005	×1.400	2.53%

Result: FIP 2.74 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Paul Liñan (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.41	23.3%	13.6%	347	-0.51	—	—	—
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	89
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	88
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	88
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	87
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	87
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.82	16.7%	4.6%	295	-0.22	4.72	389	87
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	87
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	86
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	85
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	85
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.37	21.6%	11.0%	274	-0.92	3.36	374	85
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	85
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	84
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	84
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	84
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	84
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	84
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	83
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.39	16.6%	6.3%	297	+0.17	3.64	392	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	107	23.3%	9.8%	1.26	4.54
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Lynn McGlothen ('72-'82, 13 WAR*)	7.5	150	21.2%*	8.7%*	1.26*	4.50*
Pete Redfern ('76-'82, 3 WAR*)	3.6	119	21.7%*	9.8%*	1.16*	4.74*