Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 0 | 11 | 53 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 3.97 | 3.66 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 0 | 11 | 53 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 3.97 | 3.72 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 26 | 16 | 95 | 386 | 88 | 38 | 14 | 62% | 3.6 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 2.95 | 4.70 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 26 | 16 | 95 | 386 | 88 | 38 | 14 | 62% | 3.6 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 2.95 | 4.37 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 26 | 26 | 132 | 568 | 111 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 5.1 | 15.8% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.73 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 26 | 26 | 132 | 568 | 111 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.44 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 14 | 98 | 429 | 100 | 58 | 8 | 41% | 2.9 | 19.0% | 14.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.95 | 4.96 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 14 | 98 | 429 | 100 | 58 | 8 | 41% | 2.9 | 23.3% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 3.95 | 3.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 24 | 1 | 42 | 185 | 32 | 24 | 3 | 4% | 1.8 | 15.2% | 13.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 6.64 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 72 | 0 | 75 | 318 | 54 | 45 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.42 | 5.42 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.42 | 5.42 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 117 | 503 | 86 | 69 | 12 | — | — | 17.2% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 5.86 | 5.10 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 8 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 17.1% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.42 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 72 | 0 | 75 | 318 | 58 | 43 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 5.29 | 5.27 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 71 | 0 | 74 | 314 | 58 | 42 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 13.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 5.23 | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 57 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 13.3% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 5.24 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 28 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 5.29 | 5.27 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 38 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 13.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 5.23 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 44 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 13.3% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 5.24 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 142 | 0 | 149 | 628 | 115 | 84 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 5.26 | 4.89 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 113 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 5.26 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 119 | 57 | 378 | 1621 | 279 | 199 | 45 | 48% | 3.2 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.73 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 30 | 200 | 858 | 148 | 105 | 24 | 48% | 3.2 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Devereaux Harrison (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.42 | 17.1% | 14.1% | 2.9% | — | 5.26 | 18.4% | 5.0% | 222 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Robbie Peto R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 84 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.26 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .321 | 3.22 | 25.9% | 16.8% | 60 | -2.04 | 2.63 | 213 | 84 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 84 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 83 |
| Carlos Tavera R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.27 | 18.5% | 14.8% | 3.4% | .299 | 5.57 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 29 | +0.30 | 4.12 | 263 | 83 |
| Paul Clemens R 2028 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 82 |
| Mike Franco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.74 | 17.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .251 | 4.30 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 98 | -0.44 | 3.06 | 322 | 82 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 82 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 81 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.56 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 259 | 81 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .306 | 4.97 | 15.4% | 5.1% | 183 | +0.73 | 3.41 | 390 | 81 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.19 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 4.0% | .267 | 3.90 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 112 | -1.29 | 3.53 | 383 | 79 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .294 | 5.41 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.39 | 2.76 | 198 | 78 |
| Grant Black R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 78 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.12 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .321 | 3.83 | 21.8% | 13.8% | 133 | -1.29 | 3.07 | 393 | 78 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 78 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 78 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 18.5% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .308 | 4.47 | 22.9% | 7.2% | 102 | -0.15 | 3.72 | 283 | 78 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2024 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 77 |
| André Rienzo R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 74 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 1.15 | 5.30 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |