Joey Mancini
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 77 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA5.43
FIP5.43
K%12.2%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%1.3%
ROS IP77
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 95 | 429 | 102 | 37 | 10 | 52% | 3.8 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 6.54 | 4.06 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 95 | 429 | 102 | 37 | 10 | 52% | 3.8 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 6.54 | 3.49 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 9 | 106 | 438 | 107 | 44 | 5 | 33% | 3.9 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 2.12 | 3.65 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 9 | 106 | 438 | 107 | 44 | 5 | 33% | 3.9 | 24.4% | 10.0% | 14.4% | 1.1% | 2.12 | 2.94 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 14 | 123 | 553 | 84 | 47 | 16 | 52% | 4.6 | 12.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 5.05 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 14 | 123 | 553 | 84 | 47 | 16 | 52% | 4.6 | 15.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.57 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 20 | 3 | 41 | 195 | 50 | 21 | 5 | 15% | 2.0 | 18.2% | 12.6% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 7.90 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 73 | 0 | 77 | 325 | 40 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.2% | 11.0% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 5.43 | 5.43 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.2% | 11.0% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 5.43 | 5.43 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 118 | 520 | 90 | 57 | 14 | — | — | 17.3% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 6.29 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 8 | 33 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 12.2% | 11.0% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 5.43 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 72 | 0 | 76 | 320 | 43 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.3% | 10.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.34 | 5.35 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 70 | 0 | 74 | 310 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.0% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.32 | 5.36 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 42 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.2% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.37 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 18 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.3% | 10.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.34 | 5.35 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.0% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.32 | 5.36 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.2% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.37 | 5.44 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 131 | 0 | 137 | 579 | 80 | 63 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.35 | 5.01 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 117 | 92 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.35 | 5.01 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 99 | 39 | 366 | 1615 | 267 | 167 | 41 | 39% | 3.7 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 4.80 | 4.43 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 21 | 200 | 883 | 146 | 91 | 23 | 39% | 3.7 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 4.80 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joey Mancini (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.43 | 12.2% | 11.0% | 2.9% | — | 5.38 | 13.8% | 2.9% | 220 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 86 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 83 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 82 |
| Jake McCasland R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 12.8% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 367 | 82 |
| Joel De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 10.3% | 6.7% | 2.2% | .276 | 4.47 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 120 | +0.19 | 4.28 | 205 | 82 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 81 |
| Alex Sanabia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 11.4% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .358 | 3.56 | 11.1% | 6.2% | 161 | -0.91 | 3.51 | 378 | 81 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2024 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 80 |
| Robbie Peto R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 80 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 79 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 79 |
| André Rienzo R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 79 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .283 | 4.97 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.21 | 3.73 | 550 | 77 |
| Jake Dunning R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 77 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 77 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 76 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 76 |
| Colin Bates R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 76 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 76 |
| Jose Reyes R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.03 | 11.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 225 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 74 | 13.4% | 10.9% | 1.17 | 5.37 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |