Joey Mancini

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	27	9	106	2.12	2.94	24.4%	10.0%	—	K 19.4% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.64
2025	25	MIX2 levels	27	14	123	4.74	4.57	15.2%	8.5%	—	K 12.4% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.15
2026	26	MIX2 levels	36	6	77	6.57	3.86	22.9%	10.9%	—	K 19.0% · BB 10.9% · FIP 4.30
2027PROJ	27	MLBHOU	1	0	1	5.35	5.35	14.3%	11.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBHOU	18	0	19	5.30	5.33	15.1%	11.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBHOU	22	0	23	5.32	5.39	15.5%	11.5%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control50Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDennis O'Grady (age 26) · Cooper Adams (age 24) · Josh Roeder (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%14.3%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%2.8%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	95	429	102	37	10	52%	3.8	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	2.5%	6.54	4.22	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	95	429	102	37	10	52%	3.8	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	2.3%	6.54	3.49	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	9	106	438	107	44	5	33%	3.9	19.4%	11.2%	8.2%	1.4%	2.12	3.64	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	9	106	438	107	44	5	33%	3.9	19.4%	11.2%	8.2%	1.4%	2.12	3.64	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	9	106	438	107	44	5	33%	3.9	24.4%	10.0%	14.4%	1.1%	2.12	2.94	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	14	123	553	84	47	16	52%	4.6	12.4%	9.2%	3.2%	3.5%	4.74	5.15	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	14	123	553	84	47	16	52%	4.6	12.4%	9.2%	3.2%	3.5%	4.74	5.15	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	14	123	553	84	47	16	52%	4.6	15.2%	8.5%	6.7%	2.9%	4.74	4.57	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	6	77	349	80	38	8	17%	2.1	19.0%	10.9%	8.1%	2.6%	6.57	4.30	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	6	77	349	80	38	8	17%	2.1	19.0%	10.9%	8.1%	2.6%	6.57	4.30	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	6	77	349	80	38	8	17%	2.1	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	2.3%	6.57	3.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	HOU	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	14.3%	11.5%	2.8%	3.0%	5.35	5.35	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	47	0	50	210	32	24	6	0%	1.1	15.1%	11.4%	3.7%	3.1%	5.30	5.33	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	39	0	41	174	27	20	6	0%	1.1	15.5%	11.5%	4.0%	3.2%	5.32	5.39	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	18	0	19	80	12	9	2	0%	1.1	15.1%	11.4%	3.7%	3.1%	5.30	5.33	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	22	0	23	97	15	11	3	0%	1.0	15.5%	11.5%	4.0%	3.2%	5.32	5.39	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	175	27	20	6	0%	1.0	15.3%	11.4%	3.9%	3.1%	5.31	4.98	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	130	96	29	0%	1.1	15.3%	11.4%	3.9%	3.1%	5.31	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		115	42	401	1769	298	181	46	37%	3.5	16.8%	10.2%	6.6%	2.6%	4.82	4.39	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	21	200	882	148	90	23	37%	3.5	16.8%	10.2%	6.6%	2.6%	4.82	4.39	-1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 46 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.76 (+0.70)K% 25.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.39%	—	×0.810	20.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.84%	—	×1.100	10.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.87%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 31 IPFIP 4.72 → 4.98 (+0.26)K% 19.9% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.87%	—	×0.860	17.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.18%	—	×0.900	10.96%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.53%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.72 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 114 IPFIP 4.57 → 5.15 (+0.58)K% 15.3% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.34%	—	×0.810	12.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.35%	—	×1.100	9.18%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷1.057	×1.200	3.53%

Result: FIP 4.57 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 9 IPFIP 3.32 → 3.34 (+0.02)K% 13.2% → 11.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.16%	—	×0.860	11.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×0.900	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.961	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.32 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 77 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.81 (+0.63)K% 21.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.45%	—	×0.810	17.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.46%	—	×1.100	10.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷0.970	×1.200	1.56%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 30 IPFIP 2.30 → 3.22 (+0.92)K% 32.2% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.23%	—	×0.770	24.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.57%	—	×1.150	13.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷1.073	×1.250	0.96%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.30 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Asheville Tourists · 70 IPFIP 3.85 → 4.47 (+0.62)K% 20.8% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.78%	—	×0.770	16.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.34%	—	×1.150	10.74%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷1.218	×1.250	2.47%

Result: FIP 3.85 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 25 IPFIP 2.14 → 3.38 (+1.24)K% 34.0% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.02%	—	×0.740	25.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.19%	—	×1.180	7.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷0.993	×1.300	2.70%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 2.14 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Mancini (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	14.3%	11.5%	3.0%	—	5.36	15.3%	3.8%	91	+0.01	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	87
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	83
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	83
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	82
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	81
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	81
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	80
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	80
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	80
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	79
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	79
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	79
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	79
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	79
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	78
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	77
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	77
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	76
Jake McCasland R 2018 · 4.34 FIP	26	SW	4.34	12.8%	9.5%	2.0%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	367	76
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	14.8%	11.5%	1.18	5.33
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*