Joey Mancini — OGILVIE

Joey Mancini P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.47

FIP5.47

K%12.2%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%1.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	95	429	102	37	10	52%	3.8	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	2.5%	6.54	4.22	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	95	429	102	37	10	52%	3.8	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	2.5%	6.54	4.22	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	95	429	102	37	10	52%	3.8	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	2.3%	6.54	3.49	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	9	106	438	107	44	5	33%	3.9	19.4%	11.2%	8.2%	1.4%	2.12	3.64	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	9	106	438	107	44	5	33%	3.9	19.4%	11.2%	8.2%	1.4%	2.12	3.64	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	9	106	438	107	44	5	33%	3.9	24.4%	10.0%	14.4%	1.1%	2.12	2.94	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	14	123	553	84	47	16	52%	4.6	12.4%	9.2%	3.2%	3.5%	4.74	5.15	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	14	123	553	84	47	16	52%	4.6	12.4%	9.2%	3.2%	3.5%	4.74	5.15	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	14	123	553	84	47	16	52%	4.6	15.2%	8.5%	6.7%	2.9%	4.74	4.57	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	35	6	76	343	80	37	8	17%	2.2	19.1%	10.8%	8.3%	2.7%	6.54	4.32	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	35	6	76	343	80	37	8	17%	2.2	19.1%	10.8%	8.3%	2.7%	6.54	4.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	HOU	20	4	46	193	49	19	3	20%	2.3	25.4%	9.8%	15.5%	1.6%	4.11	3.06	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	HOU	15	2	30	150	31	18	5	13%	2.0	20.7%	12.0%	8.7%	3.3%	10.31	4.70	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	HOU	6	0	6	25	3	3	1	0%	1.0	12.2%	11.0%	1.2%	3.0%	5.47	5.47	-0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	82	368	83	40	9	—	—	22.6%	10.8%	11.8%	2.4%	6.46	4.40	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	HOU	104	0	109	461	61	50	14	0%	1.1	13.2%	10.8%	2.4%	3.0%	5.37	5.39	-1.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	101	0	106	448	61	48	14	0%	1.0	13.7%	10.7%	3.0%	3.1%	5.34	5.38	-1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	96	0	101	427	59	46	14	0%	1.1	13.9%	10.8%	3.1%	3.3%	5.39	5.46	-1.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	HOU	91	0	95	402	55	44	14	0%	1.0	13.8%	11.0%	2.8%	3.5%	5.51	5.60	-1.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	HOU	39	0	41	173	23	19	5	0%	1.1	13.2%	10.8%	2.4%	3.0%	5.37	5.39	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	60	0	63	266	37	28	8	0%	1.1	13.7%	10.7%	3.0%	3.1%	5.34	5.38	-0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	69	0	72	304	42	33	10	0%	1.0	13.9%	10.8%	3.1%	3.3%	5.39	5.46	-0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	HOU	71	0	75	317	44	35	11	0%	1.1	13.8%	11.0%	2.8%	3.5%	5.51	5.60	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		238	0	250	1057	145	114	34	0%	1.1	13.7%	10.8%	2.9%	3.2%	5.41	5.09	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	116	91	27	0%	1.1	13.7%	10.8%	2.9%	3.2%	5.41	5.09	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		114	42	400	1763	297	180	46	37%	3.5	16.8%	10.2%	6.6%	2.6%	4.81	4.39	-4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	21	200	881	148	90	23	37%	3.5	16.8%	10.2%	6.6%	2.6%	4.81	4.39	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Mancini (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.47	12.2%	11.0%	3.0%	—	5.41	13.6%	2.9%	316	-0.06	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	89
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	85
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	83
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	83
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	81
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	81
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	81
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	81
Jake McCasland R 2018 · 4.34 FIP	26	SW	4.34	12.8%	9.5%	2.0%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	367	80
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	79
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	79
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	79
Casey Coleman R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	12.6%	11.4%	1.5%	.349	4.14	18.3%	8.9%	146	-0.18	2.95	306	78
Logan Verrett R 2016 · 5.19 FIP	26	SW	5.19	15.4%	10.6%	3.7%	.283	4.65	17.8%	11.8%	94	-0.54	3.81	550	78
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	77
Brooks Hall R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	14.2%	6.7%	2.8%	.284	3.45	13.6%	6.2%	55	-0.85	3.45	274	76
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	76
Drasen Johnson R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	24	SW	4.70	9.6%	5.7%	3.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	110	76
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	98	13.4%	10.8%	1.22	5.41
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25