Cam Smith — OGILVIE

Cam SmithRF Houston Astros

Age 23 R/R 6'3" / 224 lbs MLB HR -6% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION521 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 10298vR 85

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP278

ISO164

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

906.1%

xAVG

340.238

POWER45

Barrel%

579.3

Avg EV

4188.5

Bat Spd

9077.9

EYE45

Chase%

9016.1%

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.2

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%28%▼▼30% over 83 PA (30d) · proj 26%

BB%7%▼▼5% over 124 PA (45d) · proj 9%

ISO.206▲▲.250 over 148 AB (60d) · proj .165xISO .191 vs .141 prior — approach backs the move

HR/BB6.2%▲7.8% over 103 BBE (60d) · proj 4.8%barrel% 11.5% vs 6.9% prior — approach backs the move

BABIP.301▼.253 over 95 BIP (60d) · proj .307xBABIP .295 vs .308 prior — approach backs the move

SLASH.240/.300/.446▲proj .243/.317/.408

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 599 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

165

434

—

wRC+

116

◀◀L

wOBA

340

288

◀◀L

ISO

180

110

◀◀L

BABIP

320

311

—

27.9%

27.0%

▶R

BB%

11.5%

8.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+1.5	$10M	+$7M
2029	Arb-2	$8M	+1.5	$10M	+$4M
2030	Arb-3	$11M	+1.5	$9M	+$2M
Totals		$24M		$39M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	20	19	5	0	2	0	1	3	0	0	0	263	300	474	774	211	312	15	5	332	111	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2024	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	57	48	16	3	1	1	6	9	2	1	1	333	429	500	929	167	385	16	11	406	161	+4	-0	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	57	48	15	2	1	6	8	12	0	1	0	312	411	771	1.182	458	290	21	14	486	215	+8	+0	—	—	+1	0.9
2025	22	MLB	Houston Astros	—	493	441	104	21	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	236	314	358	672	122	320	28	9	304	92	-5	+1	-1	-5	+11	0.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	493	441	104	21	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	236	314	358	672	122	320	28	9	304	92	-5	+1	-1	-5	+11	0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	20	19	5	0	2	0	1	4	0	0	0	263	300	474	774	211	290	20	5	286	80	-0	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2024	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	57	51	14	2	1	1	3	12	2	1	1	275	339	412	751	137	337	21	5	341	117	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	57	52	15	2	1	6	4	17	0	1	0	288	339	712	1.051	423	259	30	7	413	166	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2025	22	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	493	441	104	21	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	236	314	358	672	122	320	28	9	300	89	-6	+1	-1	-5	+11	-0.1
2024	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	134	121	32	4	3	7	9	33	2	2	1	264	326	521	846	256	301	25	7	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	134	115	36	5	4	7	15	24	2	2	1	313	402	609	1.010	296	337	18	11	429	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	493	441	104	21	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	236	314	358	672	122	320	28	9	300	89	-6	+1	-1	-5	+11	-0.1
2025	22	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	493	441	104	21	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	236	314	358	672	122	320	28	9	304	89	-6	+1	-1	-5	+11	-0.1
2024	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	134	122	32	4	3	7	9	33	2	2	1	262	326	516	842	254	297	25	7	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	493	440	104	21	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	236	314	359	673	123	320	28	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	134	122	32	4	3	7	9	33	2	2	1	262	326	516	842	254	297	25	7	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	493	440	104	21	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	236	314	359	673	123	320	28	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	HOU	—	521	470	103	16	6	21	39	132	6	10	2	219	287	413	700	194	254	25	7	300	89	-7	+1	+4	-6	+11	0.4
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	HOU	—	521	469	102	16	6	20	39	132	6	10	2	217	285	405	691	188	254	25	7	303	89	-7	+1	+4	-6	+11	0.4
YTD	23	MLB RAW	HOU	—	521	469	102	16	6	20	39	132	6	10	2	217	285	405	691	188	254	25	7	303	91	-6	+1	+4	-6	+11	0.5
ROS	23	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		276	22	11	313	98	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		278	22	11	303	98	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	23	MLB A+C	HOU	—	530	477	103	16	6	20	40	134	6	10	2	216	284	400	685	184	252	25	8	303	90	-7	+1	+4	-6	+11	0.4
TOT	23	MLB MLE	HOU	—	530	478	104	16	6	21	40	134	6	10	2	218	286	408	694	190	252	25	8	301	90	-7	+1	+4	-6	+11	0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	556	499	115	19	6	20	45	141	7	19	4	230	303	413	716	182	276	25	8	315	100	-0	+2	+6	-6	+12	1.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	544	487	113	18	6	20	45	137	7	19	4	232	306	417	723	185	276	25	8	318	101	+1	+2	+6	-6	+12	1.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	534	478	110	18	5	20	44	134	7	19	3	230	304	414	719	184	276	25	8	319	102	+1	+3	+6	-6	+12	1.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	523	468	108	17	5	20	44	132	6	18	3	231	305	417	722	186	276	25	8	319	102	+1	+2	+6	-6	+11	1.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	513	458	105	17	5	19	44	130	6	17	3	229	305	413	718	183	275	25	9	318	101	+1	+2	+5	-5	+11	1.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	502	448	103	16	5	19	43	128	6	15	3	230	306	415	721	185	274	25	9	316	100	-0	+2	+4	-5	+11	1.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	492	441	100	16	5	18	42	127	6	14	3	227	303	408	711	181	272	26	9	312	98	-1	+2	+3	-5	+11	0.9
2034	31	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	482	432	95	15	4	17	41	126	6	12	2	220	296	391	688	171	268	26	9	308	94	-3	+2	+2	-5	+10	0.6
2035	32	MLB MLE	HOU	98%	473	425	91	14	4	16	40	126	5	9	2	214	289	379	668	165	263	27	8	301	90	-6	+1	+2	-5	+10	0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	545	489	113	19	6	19	44	138	7	19	4	231	304	411	715	180	278	25	8	306	100	-0	+2	+6	-6	+12	1.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	533	478	110	18	5	19	44	134	6	19	3	230	303	408	711	178	278	25	8	308	101	+1	+3	+6	-6	+12	1.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	523	468	108	18	5	19	44	132	6	18	3	231	305	412	717	182	278	25	8	309	102	+1	+2	+6	-6	+11	1.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	513	459	106	17	5	19	43	129	6	18	3	231	305	414	719	183	277	25	8	309	102	+1	+2	+6	-5	+11	1.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	503	449	103	17	5	18	43	128	6	17	3	229	305	410	715	180	277	25	9	308	101	+1	+2	+5	-5	+11	1.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	492	441	101	16	5	18	42	126	6	15	3	229	305	410	715	181	275	26	9	306	100	-0	+2	+4	-5	+11	1.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	482	432	98	16	5	17	41	125	6	13	2	227	303	405	708	178	273	26	9	303	98	-1	+2	+3	-5	+10	0.9
2034	31	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	472	422	93	15	4	16	41	123	6	11	2	220	299	389	687	168	270	26	9	298	94	-3	+1	+2	-5	+10	0.6
2035	32	MLB CTX	HOU	98%	464	416	90	14	4	16	40	123	5	9	2	216	293	385	677	168	265	27	9	292	90	-6	+1	+2	-5	+10	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5029	4503	1027	171	47	170	426	1297	61	147	26	228	303	400	704	172	280	26	8	305	99	-11	+19	+38	-54	+109	10.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	133	22	6	22	55	168	8	19	3	229	304	400	704	172	281	26	8	305	99	-1	+2	+5	-7	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	5255	4706	1077	175	51	185	441	1353	65	152	29	229	304	406	709	177	279	26	8	314	99	-11	+19	+39	-55	+111	10.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	133	22	6	23	55	167	8	19	4	229	304	405	709	177	278	26	8	314	99	-1	+2	+5	-7	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Duvalllast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,723 PA	5.6	3,723	195	22	227	287	459	-31	+11	11.0	11.8
/162	664	35	4	-5.5	+2.0	2.0	pk7: 13
#2Wil Myerslast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,290 PA	6.5	4,290	156	107	252	326	437	-47	-45	10.7	10.8
/162	664	24	17	-7.3	-6.9	1.7	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	9.2	6,100	212	188	230	301	405	-65	+6	11.1	10.0
/162	664	23	20	-7.1	+0.7	1.2	pk7: 9
#3Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#4Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	8.5	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
/162	664	19	6	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11
#5Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#6Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cam Smith (OGILVIE)	23	45	45	60	45	227/298/404	177	276	20	19	26%	8%	98	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Chris Young 2007 · MLB	23	43→48	54→60	54→55	48	225/294/412	186	262	21	20	23%	8%	98	+1.2	235/302/435	200	277	23	18	23%	8%	106	+1.8	239/321/429	190	289	21	17	24%	10%	108	+2.1
✕Akil Baddoo 2022 · MLB	23	50→53	50	58→55	49	248/319/414	167	326	17	20	28%	10%	106	+1.8	227/306/369	142	300	14	23	27%	10%	92	+0.7	211/293/366	155	276	16	28	28%	10%	83	+0.1
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	49→55	59→55	47	205/293/360	155	287	16	24	33%	10%	86	+0.3	245/323/418	173	327	19	21	29%	9%	109	+2.0	229/312/387	159	297	19	21	28%	9%	96	+0.9
✕Victor Robles 2020 · MLB	23	50→52	48→50	55→60	44	249/317/399	151	302	14	26	22%	6%	103	+1.6	228/302/351	123	292	11	19	25%	6%	86	+0.3	282/352/386	105	351	6	51	20%	6%	110	+0.7
✕Brett Lawrie 2012 · MLB	22	52→56	50→55	58→55	45	257/309/431	174	308	15	19	22%	6%	107	+1.8	260/315/413	153	296	16	14	17%	6%	105	+1.7	258/314/401	143	287	16	10	16%	6%	100	+0.9
✕Lewis Brinson 2018 · MLB	24	46→53	51→55	52→50	42	235/286/398	162	291	18	16	26%	6%	91	+0.7	207/260/339	132	282	14	12	31%	5%	68	-1.0	230/272/404	174	301	22	8	31%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	45→49	51→55	49→50	44	231/295/391	160	292	19	12	28%	7%	93	+0.8	239/298/393	154	317	17	11	29%	7%	94	+0.9	239/312/395	156	325	18	14	30%	8%	98	+1.0
●Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	48→52	50→55	51→50	48	244/305/399	156	281	17	13	20%	7%	98	+1.2	219/308/375	156	260	16	11	22%	10%	95	+0.9	224/326/406	183	249	21	12	19%	12%	105	+1.6
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→50	52→55	60→55	48	218/298/397	180	264	19	29	25%	8%	96	+1.0	219/284/371	152	274	16	24	25%	8%	84	+0.2	224/284/362	138	278	14	23	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46	48→50	52→50	42	230/313/379	148	298	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	221/305/368	147	284	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	208/293/349	141	265	17	11	27%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Ke'Bryan Hayes 2021 · MLB	24	51→55	47→50	53→50	47	250/310/399	149	304	13	11	22%	7%	100	+1.3	255/313/393	138	316	12	15	22%	8%	99	+1.3	257/314/398	140	314	13	16	21%	7%	99	+1.0
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	43→44	51→55	56→55	42	220/284/382	162	298	19	23	32%	7%	86	+0.3	202/275/330	128	280	14	17	31%	8%	72	-0.7	185/267/299	114	254	13	16	31%	9%	59	-1.1
●Trent Grisham 2021 · MLB	24	46→49	54→60	54→55	53	237/322/418	182	284	21	14	24%	11%	109	+2.0	221/313/388	167	277	18	13	25%	11%	99	+1.3	212/319/405	193	232	27	6	22%	13%	104	+1.1
●Zack Gelof 2023 · AAA	23	45→50	51→55	52→55	43	228/290/387	159	317	20	13	33%	8%	90	+0.6	230/295/403	173	322	21	23	33%	8%	96	+1.0	223/292/397	174	309	22	27	34%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Joe Benson 2011 · AA	23	44→50	52→55	51→50	42	224/295/399	175	308	18	16	32%	7%	95	+1.0	215/280/364	149	297	14	14	31%	7%	81	-0.1	209/280/316	107	280	8	13	27%	7%	68	-0.7
✕Dustin Harris 2023 · AA	24	46→54	53→50	54→60	47	239/301/409	169	278	21	19	23%	7%	99	+1.3	222/293/348	126	288	13	29	26%	8%	82	+0.0	236/302/353	118	292	12	34	22%	7%	84	+0.1
●Josh Lowe 2022 · AAA	24	46→56	50→55	58→60	45	231/296/387	156	310	18	25	31%	8%	93	+0.8	249/306/414	165	353	17	28	32%	8%	102	+1.5	252/308/421	169	355	18	33	32%	7%	100	+1.1
✕Justin Maxwell 2008 · MLB	24	42→44	54→60	54→60	39	222/282/401	179	302	23	20	34%	6%	91	+0.6	217/293/366	149	301	17	28	32%	9%	86	+0.3	221/295/426	205	300	26	17	34%	9%	99	+0.6
●Christopher Morel 2023 · MLB	24	43→46	53→60	49→50	42	221/285/395	175	301	21	15	33%	8%	91	+0.6	225/299/424	199	289	26	11	31%	9%	103	+1.5	218/297/418	200	274	27	10	30%	9%	97	+0.9
✕Travis Snider 2012 · MLB	24	50→53	49→55	50	44	250/302/404	154	313	16	16	25%	6%	98	+1.2	250/312/395	145	312	16	10	24%	8%	100	+1.3	252/321/404	152	307	18	5	23%	9%	102	+0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps