Cam Smith — OGILVIE

Cam SmithRF Houston Astros

Age 23 R/R 6'3" / 224 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION361 act + 240 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 124107vR 65

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .306 / .377

PA240

HR7

SB10

K%25

BB%9

BABIP283

ISO149

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

867.3%

xwOBA

590.319

POWER45

Barrel%

569.1

Avg EV

4388.6

Bat Spd

9077.9

EYE45

Chase%

9019.1%

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.2

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 599 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

165

434

—

wRC+

118

◀◀L

wOBA

340

288

◀◀L

ISO

180

110

◀◀L

BABIP

320

311

—

27.9%

27.0%

▶R

BB%

11.5%

8.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$13M	+$12M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+1.8	$12M	+$9M
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+1.8	$11M	+$7M
2030	Arb-3	$10M	+1.8	$11M	+$4M
Totals		$22M		$49M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A+	3 teams	—	134	121	32	4	3	7	9	34	2	2	1	264	326	521	846	256	305	25	7	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	3 teams	—	134	115	36	5	4	7	15	24	2	2	1	313	402	609	1.010	296	337	18	11	429	186	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB	Houston Astros	—	493	441	101	20	3	8	43	137	7	8	1	229	308	342	650	113	312	28	9	295	84	-9	+1	-1	-5	+14	-0.0
2025	22	MLB	Houston Astros	—	493	441	104	21	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	236	314	358	672	122	320	28	9	304	91	-5	+1	-1	-5	+14	0.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	MLB	HOU	—	361	322	70	13	1	12	31	85	4	9	1	217	294	376	670	158	253	24	9	295	84	-7	+1	+4	-4	+10	0.5
YTD	23	MLB	HOU	—	361	321	70	13	1	12	31	85	4	9	1	218	294	377	671	159	254	24	9	298	86	-6	+1	+4	-4	+10	0.6
ROS	23	MLB	HOU	100%	240	214	49	9	1	7	21	60	3	10	2	228	306	377	683	149	282	25	9	308	94	-2	+1	+1	-3	+7	0.5
ROS	23	MLB	HOU	100%	241	215	49	9	1	7	21	60	3	10	2	228	305	377	682	149	285	25	9	303	90	-3	+1	+1	-3	+7	0.4
FULL	23	MLB	HOU	—	602	537	119	22	2	19	52	145	7	19	3	222	299	376	675	155	265	24	9	298	86	-9	+3	+5	-6	+17	0.9
TOT	23	MLB	HOU	—	601	536	119	22	2	19	52	145	7	19	3	222	299	376	675	155	265	24	9	300	88	-8	+3	+5	-6	+17	1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	HOU	98%	590	525	122	22	3	18	53	144	7	24	4	232	311	389	700	156	284	24	9	313	98	-2	+3	+3	-6	+17	1.6
2028	25	MLB	HOU	98%	578	514	120	22	3	18	52	140	7	24	4	233	312	393	705	160	284	24	9	315	99	-0	+3	+3	-6	+16	1.7
2029	26	MLB	HOU	98%	566	502	118	21	3	18	52	137	7	23	4	235	316	396	712	161	283	24	9	316	100	+0	+3	+3	-6	+16	1.7
2030	27	MLB	HOU	98%	555	492	115	21	2	18	51	135	7	23	4	234	315	394	709	161	283	24	9	316	100	+0	+3	+3	-6	+16	1.6
2031	28	MLB	HOU	98%	544	481	111	20	2	17	51	133	7	21	3	231	314	387	700	156	282	24	9	315	99	-0	+3	+2	-6	+15	1.5
2032	29	MLB	HOU	98%	533	472	109	20	2	17	50	131	6	19	3	231	312	390	702	159	281	25	9	313	98	-1	+3	+2	-6	+15	1.2
2033	30	MLB	HOU	98%	522	462	106	19	2	16	49	130	6	17	3	229	311	383	695	154	279	25	9	310	95	-3	+2	+1	-6	+15	1.0
2034	31	MLB	HOU	98%	512	453	102	18	2	15	48	129	6	14	2	225	308	373	681	148	276	25	9	305	91	-5	+2	+0	-5	+15	0.6
2035	32	MLB	HOU	98%	502	444	97	17	2	14	47	129	6	12	2	218	302	360	662	142	271	26	9	298	86	-8	+2	-1	-5	+14	0.2
2027	24	MLB	HOU	98%	578	514	121	22	3	18	52	141	7	24	4	235	314	395	709	160	286	24	9	308	94	-4	+3	+3	-6	+16	1.3
2028	25	MLB	HOU	98%	566	503	119	22	3	18	51	137	7	23	4	237	316	400	715	163	286	24	9	310	95	-3	+3	+3	-6	+16	1.4
2029	26	MLB	HOU	98%	555	492	117	22	2	18	51	135	7	23	4	238	318	400	719	163	286	24	9	311	96	-2	+3	+3	-6	+16	1.4
2030	27	MLB	HOU	98%	544	482	114	21	2	18	50	132	7	22	4	237	317	400	718	164	286	24	9	311	96	-2	+3	+3	-6	+15	1.3
2031	28	MLB	HOU	98%	533	472	110	20	2	17	50	130	6	21	3	233	314	392	706	159	285	24	9	310	95	-3	+3	+2	-6	+15	1.2
2032	29	MLB	HOU	98%	522	462	108	20	2	17	49	129	6	19	3	234	315	396	711	162	284	25	9	308	94	-4	+3	+2	-6	+15	1.0
2033	30	MLB	HOU	98%	512	453	105	19	2	16	48	128	6	17	3	232	314	389	702	157	282	25	9	304	91	-5	+2	+1	-5	+15	0.7
2034	31	MLB	HOU	98%	502	444	101	18	2	15	47	127	6	14	2	227	310	378	688	151	278	25	9	300	87	-7	+2	+0	-5	+14	0.4
2035	32	MLB	HOU	98%	492	437	97	17	2	15	46	126	6	12	2	222	305	373	678	151	274	26	9	293	83	-10	+2	-1	-5	+14	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5538	4915	1145	211	24	168	508	1382	68	193	32	233	313	388	702	155	288	25	9	306	92	-48	+26	+17	-59	+157	9.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	135	25	3	20	60	162	8	23	4	234	315	392	706	158	289	25	9	306	92	-6	+3	+2	-7	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	5769	5121	1182	213	28	173	526	1439	71	197	33	231	311	385	696	154	285	25	9	311	96	-23	+26	+17	-62	+163	12.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	133	24	3	19	59	162	8	22	4	231	311	381	692	151	285	25	9	311	96	-3	+3	+2	-7	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	20	19	5	0	2	0	1	3	0	0	0	263	300	474	774	211	312	15	5	332	112	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	57	48	16	3	1	1	6	9	2	1	1	333	429	500	929	167	385	16	11	406	169	+4	-0	—	—	+2	0.6
2024	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	57	48	15	2	1	6	8	12	0	1	0	312	411	771	1.182	458	290	21	14	486	230	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.0
2025	22	MLB	Houston Astros	—	493	441	104	21	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	236	314	358	672	122	320	28	9	304	91	-5	+1	-1	-5	+14	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	493	441	104	21	3	9	43	137	7	8	1	236	314	358	672	122	320	28	9	304	91	-5	+1	-1	-5	+14	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Wil Myerslast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,290 PA	11	4,290	156	107	252	326	437	-47	-45	10.7	10.7
#1Wil Myerslast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,290 PA	/162	664	24	17	252	326	437	-7.3	-6.9	1.7	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	6,249	186	223	232	309	385	-67	+6	10.5	9.7
	/162	664	20	24	232	309	385	-7.1	+0.7	1.1	pk7: 9
#2Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	11	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	4	242	316	418	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#3Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	11	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
	/162	664	19	6	262	304	417	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11
#4Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#6Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cam Smith (OGILVIE)	23	45	45	60	45	222/299/376	155	265	19	19	24%	9%	88	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Victor Robles 2020 · MLB	23	50→54	48→50	54→60	44	246/315/395	149	299	14	26	22%	6%	102	+1.8	227/301/350	123	291	11	19	25%	6%	85	+0.7	283/353/387	105	352	6	51	20%	6%	113	+0.9
●Akil Baddoo 2022 · MLB	23	51→54	51→55	57→55	49	251/321/420	170	331	17	20	28%	10%	110	+2.4	230/309/382	152	301	16	23	27%	10%	95	+1.4	222/303/408	186	279	21	28	27%	10%	96	+1.1
✕Oswald Peraza 2023 · MLB	23	45→52	50	57→60	41	234/284/381	148	293	18	31	27%	5%	85	+0.7	215/279/345	130	270	16	25	26%	6%	73	-0.1	206/267/320	115	269	15	25	28%	6%	60	-0.6
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	51→55	59→55	46	204/291/370	166	288	19	24	34%	10%	85	+0.7	246/324/427	181	328	21	21	29%	9%	113	+2.6	236/320/399	164	307	19	21	28%	10%	103	+1.6
●Chris Young 2007 · MLB	23	43→49	55→60	54→55	48	226/294/418	192	263	22	20	24%	8%	99	+1.7	235/302/435	200	276	23	18	23%	8%	107	+2.2	239/321/428	189	289	20	17	24%	10%	109	+2.5
✕Ryan Kalish 2011 · MLB	23	49→51	48→50	57→55	47	244/304/388	144	295	15	23	23%	8%	94	+1.3	227/282/337	110	293	11	21	25%	7%	72	-0.2	212/256/305	93	285	8	20	28%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→49	54→55	60→55	48	220/301/407	187	268	20	29	26%	8%	99	+1.7	219/284/372	153	274	16	24	25%	8%	82	+0.5	216/279/363	147	269	15	22	25%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Leody Taveras 2022 · MLB	23	42→52	49→50	55	44	215/274/366	151	278	16	22	29%	7%	76	+0.1	242/293/384	142	305	15	19	25%	7%	89	+0.9	247/297/378	132	305	13	20	23%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Manuel Margot 2018 · MLB	23	51→53	44→50	57→60	46	248/292/372	124	289	10	23	18%	6%	85	+0.7	248/303/390	142	291	13	20	19%	7%	94	+1.3	246/310/381	135	282	14	26	17%	8%	92	+0.7
✕Jake Marisnick 2014 · MLB	23	46→52	45→60	53→55	40	228/282/357	130	288	12	17	25%	5%	77	+0.1	228/273/346	118	296	11	26	26%	4%	70	-0.3	226/290/423	196	302	25	18	33%	6%	96	+0.7
✕David Dahl 2017 · MLB	23	50→54	47→55	55	40	245/288/389	144	324	14	18	28%	6%	88	+0.9	239/287/397	158	313	17	12	28%	6%	89	+1.0	250/300/396	147	318	14	5	25%	6%	92	+0.8
✕Nick Loftin 2023 · AAA	24	44→53	48→50	53→50	46	225/285/363	138	263	16	18	21%	7%	81	+0.4	240/309/371	131	275	15	13	18%	8%	92	+1.2	240/320/368	128	270	14	11	16%	9%	94	+0.9
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	50→49	54→60	55→50	45	256/314/439	183	307	21	23	24%	7%	112	+2.6	258/314/460	202	301	28	14	24%	7%	118	+3.0	245/301/434	189	280	27	12	23%	7%	103	+1.2
✕Brett Lawrie 2012 · MLB	22	52→55	50→55	58→55	45	256/308/428	172	309	15	19	22%	6%	106	+2.2	258/313/410	152	294	16	14	18%	6%	104	+2.0	256/313/399	143	285	16	10	16%	6%	99	+1.2
●Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	45→49	51→55	50	44	232/297/394	162	296	20	12	28%	7%	93	+1.3	242/301/407	165	320	20	11	29%	7%	98	+1.6	245/305/413	168	324	20	11	29%	7%	99	+1.5
●Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	48→53	51→55	51→50	47	245/302/410	166	280	19	13	21%	7%	100	+1.7	221/308/380	159	262	17	11	22%	10%	95	+1.4	221/322/407	185	244	21	11	19%	12%	106	+1.7
✕Lewis Brinson 2018 · MLB	24	44→52	51→55	52→50	42	229/280/393	163	285	19	16	27%	6%	86	+0.8	205/257/335	130	282	14	12	31%	5%	61	-1.0	233/275/409	176	307	23	8	31%	5%	85	+0.3
✕Wenceel Pérez 2023 · AA	23	47→48	49→55	57→55	45	236/289/395	160	287	15	16	24%	7%	90	+1.0	235/296/383	148	288	14	17	23%	8%	90	+1.0	234/299/385	150	285	15	17	23%	8%	90	+0.8
●Peter Bourjos 2011 · MLB	24	48→56	45→50	63→60	41	238/279/373	135	289	12	28	22%	4%	79	+0.3	245/299/385	140	307	12	20	23%	6%	92	+1.2	250/310/389	140	318	12	18	24%	6%	95	+0.8
●Derek Fisher 2017 · AAA	23	45→52	48→55	55	45	221/295/360	139	316	16	20	34%	9%	84	+0.6	233/304/401	168	327	20	18	33%	9%	98	+1.6	231/306/412	181	317	23	18	33%	9%	98	+1.2