Jordan Westburg
3B Baltimore Orioles| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | AAABAL | 301 | .295/.372/.567 | 18 | 6 | 105 | — | .244/.309/.444 | |
| 2023 | 24 | MLBBAL | 228 | .260/.316/.404 | 3 | 4 | 96 | 0.9 | ||
| 2024 | 25 | MLBBAL | 447 | .264/.312/.481 | 18 | 6 | 117 | 1.8 | ||
| 2025 | 26 | AAABAL | 43 | .333/.395/.744 | 4 | 0 | 139 | — | .275/.326/.575 | |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBBAL | 352 | .265/.313/.457 | 17 | 1 | 111 | 1.6 | ||
| 2026 | 27 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 28 | MLBBAL | 163 | .275/.327/.487 | 8 | 8 | 121 | 1.0 | ||
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 29 | MLBBAL | 297 | .272/.324/.480 | 14 | 13 | 119 | 1.6 | ||
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 30 | MLBBAL | 287 | .269/.320/.471 | 13 | 11 | 115 | 1.4 | ||
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 130 | 112 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 232 | 328 | 429 | 757 | 196 | 282 | 25 | 11 | 332 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 285 | 241 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 71 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 286 | 392 | 469 | 861 | 183 | 372 | 25 | 12 | 382 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 91 | 71 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 366 | 494 | 592 | 1.086 | 225 | 500 | 26 | 13 | 466 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 413 | 362 | 99 | 25 | 3 | 18 | 44 | 90 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 273 | 362 | 508 | 870 | 235 | 318 | 22 | 11 | 381 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 209 | 182 | 45 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 57 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 344 | 473 | 817 | 225 | 310 | 27 | 12 | 361 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 228 | 208 | 54 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 56 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 260 | 316 | 404 | 719 | 144 | 336 | 25 | 7 | 316 | 96 | -1 | +0 | +3 | +2 | +5 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 301 | 268 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 18 | 29 | 64 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 295 | 372 | 567 | 939 | 272 | 328 | 21 | 10 | 408 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 447 | 416 | 110 | 26 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 97 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 264 | 312 | 481 | 793 | 216 | 305 | 22 | 5 | 346 | 117 | +9 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +10 | 1.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 352 | 328 | 87 | 10 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 80 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 265 | 313 | 457 | 771 | 192 | 302 | 23 | 5 | 339 | 111 | +5 | -1 | +3 | +1 | +8 | 1.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 43 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 395 | 744 | 1.139 | 410 | 360 | 23 | 7 | 484 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1027 | 952 | 251 | 53 | 8 | 38 | 55 | 233 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 264 | 313 | 456 | 769 | 192 | 310 | 23 | 5 | 337 | 114 | +17 | -0 | +3 | +5 | +22 | 4.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 130 | 117 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 214 | 281 | 376 | 657 | 162 | 279 | 31 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 285 | 250 | 58 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 96 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 232 | 322 | 364 | 686 | 132 | 340 | 34 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 91 | 75 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 307 | 416 | 467 | 882 | 160 | 449 | 35 | 9 | 380 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 413 | 375 | 91 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 106 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 243 | 311 | 427 | 737 | 184 | 297 | 26 | 8 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 209 | 190 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 70 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 205 | 278 | 358 | 635 | 153 | 289 | 33 | 9 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 228 | 208 | 53 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 56 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 255 | 311 | 394 | 705 | 139 | 336 | 25 | 7 | 310 | 96 | -1 | +0 | +3 | +2 | +5 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 301 | 275 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 22 | 78 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 244 | 309 | 444 | 753 | 200 | 295 | 26 | 7 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 447 | 416 | 107 | 24 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 97 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 257 | 306 | 469 | 774 | 212 | 305 | 22 | 5 | 341 | 117 | +9 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +10 | 1.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 352 | 328 | 85 | 10 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 80 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 259 | 308 | 442 | 750 | 183 | 302 | 23 | 5 | 333 | 111 | +5 | -1 | +3 | +1 | +8 | 1.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 43 | 40 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 326 | 575 | 901 | 300 | 323 | 28 | 5 | 374 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 506 | 442 | 106 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 43 | 167 | 15 | 17 | 5 | 240 | 328 | 385 | 713 | 145 | 352 | 33 | 8 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 506 | 424 | 121 | 27 | 5 | 15 | 61 | 127 | 15 | 17 | 5 | 285 | 394 | 479 | 873 | 193 | 368 | 25 | 12 | 384 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 622 | 565 | 129 | 33 | 3 | 19 | 49 | 176 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 228 | 298 | 398 | 696 | 170 | 296 | 28 | 8 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 622 | 544 | 144 | 39 | 3 | 27 | 70 | 147 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 265 | 356 | 496 | 852 | 232 | 315 | 24 | 11 | 375 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 529 | 483 | 120 | 28 | 4 | 16 | 38 | 134 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 248 | 310 | 422 | 732 | 174 | 310 | 25 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 529 | 476 | 133 | 32 | 4 | 21 | 45 | 120 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 279 | 348 | 496 | 844 | 216 | 331 | 23 | 9 | 369 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 447 | 416 | 107 | 24 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 97 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 257 | 306 | 469 | 774 | 212 | 295 | 22 | 5 | 341 | 117 | +9 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +10 | 1.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB RAW | Baltimore Orioles | — | 447 | 416 | 110 | 26 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 97 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 264 | 312 | 481 | 793 | 216 | 305 | 22 | 5 | 346 | 117 | +9 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +10 | 1.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 368 | 96 | 13 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 92 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 261 | 310 | 457 | 766 | 196 | 298 | 23 | 5 | 337 | 114 | +7 | -1 | +3 | +1 | +9 | 1.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 395 | 367 | 100 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 20 | 90 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 272 | 322 | 488 | 810 | 215 | 307 | 23 | 5 | 355 | 114 | +7 | -1 | +3 | +1 | +9 | 1.9 |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 506 | 443 | 106 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 43 | 167 | 15 | 17 | 5 | 239 | 328 | 384 | 712 | 144 | 344 | 33 | 8 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 622 | 561 | 129 | 33 | 3 | 19 | 49 | 176 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 230 | 298 | 401 | 699 | 171 | 294 | 28 | 8 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 529 | 481 | 120 | 28 | 4 | 16 | 38 | 134 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 249 | 310 | 424 | 734 | 175 | 312 | 25 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 447 | 415 | 107 | 24 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 97 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 258 | 306 | 470 | 775 | 212 | 305 | 22 | 5 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 366 | 96 | 13 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 92 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 262 | 310 | 459 | 769 | 197 | 304 | 23 | 5 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 447 | 415 | 107 | 24 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 97 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 258 | 306 | 470 | 775 | 212 | 305 | 22 | 5 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 366 | 96 | 13 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 92 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 262 | 310 | 459 | 769 | 197 | 304 | 23 | 5 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 100% | 387 | 357 | 96 | 16 | 2 | 17 | 21 | 88 | 6 | 19 | 4 | 270 | 322 | 474 | 796 | 204 | 310 | 23 | 5 | 348 | 121 | +10 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +8 | 1.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 100% | 163 | 150 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 37 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 275 | 327 | 487 | 813 | 212 | 315 | 23 | 6 | 355 | 121 | +4 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +4 | 1.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 92% | 323 | 297 | 79 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 75 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 267 | 319 | 467 | 786 | 200 | 308 | 23 | 6 | 344 | 119 | +7 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 1.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 92% | 312 | 287 | 76 | 12 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 73 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 264 | 315 | 459 | 774 | 195 | 306 | 23 | 5 | 339 | 115 | +6 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 1.5 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB MLE | BAL | 92% | 294 | 272 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 16 | 70 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 259 | 309 | 448 | 757 | 189 | 302 | 24 | 5 | 332 | 111 | +4 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB MLE | BAL | 92% | 271 | 251 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 66 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 252 | 302 | 433 | 735 | 181 | 297 | 24 | 5 | 323 | 105 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB MLE | BAL | 92% | 237 | 220 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 59 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 245 | 293 | 415 | 708 | 171 | 290 | 25 | 5 | 312 | 97 | -1 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 92% | 297 | 274 | 75 | 12 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 69 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 272 | 324 | 480 | 804 | 208 | 313 | 23 | 5 | 351 | 119 | +7 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 1.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 92% | 287 | 265 | 72 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 16 | 67 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 269 | 320 | 471 | 791 | 203 | 311 | 23 | 6 | 345 | 115 | +5 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +6 | 1.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB CTX | BAL | 92% | 270 | 250 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 14 | 64 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 264 | 314 | 460 | 774 | 196 | 307 | 24 | 5 | 338 | 111 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB CTX | BAL | 92% | 249 | 230 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 60 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 257 | 306 | 445 | 751 | 188 | 302 | 24 | 5 | 329 | 105 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB CTX | BAL | 92% | 218 | 202 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 249 | 297 | 426 | 724 | 177 | 295 | 25 | 5 | 318 | 97 | -1 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +5 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2348 | 2173 | 574 | 105 | 15 | 97 | 125 | 547 | 34 | 48 | 15 | 264 | 314 | 460 | 775 | 196 | 310 | 23 | 5 | 337 | 106 | +33 | +4 | -3 | +10 | +51 | 9.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 159 | 29 | 4 | 27 | 35 | 151 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 264 | 315 | 460 | 775 | 196 | 309 | 23 | 5 | 337 | 106 | +9 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +14 | 2.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4099 | 3751 | 940 | 182 | 25 | 150 | 257 | 1046 | 65 | 94 | 25 | 251 | 310 | 432 | 742 | 182 | 307 | 26 | 6 | 325 | 106 | +39 | +5 | -2 | +11 | +57 | 11.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 149 | 29 | 4 | 24 | 41 | 166 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 250 | 310 | 434 | 743 | 183 | 306 | 26 | 6 | 325 | 106 | +10 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +14 | 2.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 43 PAwOBA .469 → .374 (−96)K% 23.3% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.26% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.98% | ÷1.063 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷0.959 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 17.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.79% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 11.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.79% | ÷0.945 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 10.40% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .469 → .374; ISO .410 → .306; BABIP .360 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 301 PAwOBA .397 → .323 (−74)K% 21.3% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.26% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.63% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.57% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×1.048 | 20.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.35% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.048 | 6.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.048 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 6.50% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .397 → .323; ISO .272 → .205; BABIP .328 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 413 PAwOBA .372 → .314 (−58)K% 21.8% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.79% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.65% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 7.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.49% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×0.976 | ×1.050 | 19.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.050 | 7.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.130 | ×0.970 | ×0.976 | ×1.050 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.62% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 5.01% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .372 → .314; ISO .235 → .185; BABIP .318 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABowie Baysox · 209 PAwOBA .350 → .279 (−70)K% 27.3% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.96% | ÷0.998 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.60% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×1.027 | 17.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.20% | ÷1.055 | ×0.860 | ×1.018 | ×1.027 | 9.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.20% | ÷1.170 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.93% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .350 → .279; ISO .225 → .161; BABIP .310 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 285 PAwOBA .375 → .303 (−72)K% 24.9% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.91% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 33.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.28% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 9.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.46% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.29% | ÷1.026 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 23.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.41% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 8.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.71% | ÷1.041 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 3.80% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .375 → .303; ISO .183 → .141; BABIP .372 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABowie Baysox · 130 PAwOBA .328 → .279 (−49)K% 24.6% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.62% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.77% | ÷1.065 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.042 | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.50% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | ×1.025 | ×1.042 | 17.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷0.995 | ×0.870 | ×1.025 | ×1.042 | 7.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×1.042 | 2.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.258 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 3.23% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 96, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .328 → .279; ISO .196 → .156; BABIP .282 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 91 PAwOBA .465 → .380 (−85)K% 26.4% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.37% | ÷1.027 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.19% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.59% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 5.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.17% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | — | — | 34.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.64% | ÷1.055 | ×0.830 | — | — | 8.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.035 | ×0.910 | — | — | 1.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.035 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.93% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 107, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .465 → .380; ISO .225 → .176; BABIP .500 → .449. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).